Nostlinger Christine Konrad El Nino Que Salio de Lata Conservas
1 Sun-Spots und El Nino Ulrich Cubasch Freie Universität Berlin.
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Transcript of 1 Sun-Spots und El Nino Ulrich Cubasch Freie Universität Berlin.
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Sun-Spots und El Nino
Ulrich Cubasch
Freie Universität Berlin
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NCEP-reanalysis
GPRC Xie & Arkin
The precipitation anomaly in the tropical Pacificduring solar maximum
van Loon et al, 2006
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argument chain (van Loon et al, 2006)
more solar forcingstronger convergence zonesmore precipitation and stronger trade
windsmore upwelling of colder water in the
PacificLa Nina
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inverse argument chain (Mendoza, 1991; Handler & Andsager, 1990, Adams et
al, 2003)
less solar forcing (solar min., vulcanoes)
weaker convergence zonesless precipitation in ITCZ and weaker
trade windsless upwelling of colder water in the
PacificEl Nino
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The precipitation anomaly during solar maximum
observed
van Loon et al, 2006
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Wenn ich den Sonnenfleckenzykluskenne, kann ich ENSO und den
Regen in Kalifornien für 10 Jahre vorhersagen!?
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…..aber
ENSO hat keinen 11-Jahreszyklus!
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Eigenmodes in the tropical Pacific
White and Tourre, 2003
MTM-SVD
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Response of a delayed oscillator model to solar forcing
White et al, 2003
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The 11-yr signal in Sun’s irradiance appears to excite a damped resonant response (i.e., the QDO) in the Earth’s climate system.
The QDO is excited by a quasi-decadal external signal, not by internal noise or instability in the Earth’s climate system.
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modified from Kuni Kodera (2005)
Sun
UV
Earth
Ozone T, U
Indirect Influence
Dynamical impact
trop.
Strat.
Visible
Earth
Direct Influence
Radiative impact
trop.
Strat.
Sun
?
Possible Ways for Solar Influence on Climate
nicht stark genug (Warren et al, 2003)
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Quasi-decadal changes in tropical global-average upper ocean temperature are associated with changes in the overlying troposphere and stratosphere
(White, 2005)
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Mechanism – Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle
Change of meridionaltemperature gradient
Circulation changes(wind, waves, meridional
BD circulation)
Direct influence on temperature
Influence on ozone
QBO
SAO
Indirect influence, difficult to measure
? ?
?
Change of Hadley & Walker
cell
Change of Monsoon
UV radiationMesosphere
Stratosphere
Troposphere
Tropopause
Stratopause
Ocean?
Thermosphere
QDO, ENSO, QBOmodified from Matthes, 2006
?
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Summary
• The solar variability generates a ENSO like signal (with La Nina at solar maximum and El Nino at solar minimum).
• This ENSO like signal appears to be the QDO in the Pacific, which is phase locked with the solar cycle.
• The direct radiative heating anomaly is insufficient to explain the amplitude of the response.
• It is therefore likely that the anomalous heating of the stratosphere during solar maximum interacts with the ocean surface. The mechanisms are not yet clear.
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The Sun
is the key to decadal forecasting….