Arbeit und Qualifikation - uni-due.de...2017/11/24 · 2.3 Two real cases: UK 2014 and Germany 1995...
Transcript of Arbeit und Qualifikation - uni-due.de...2017/11/24 · 2.3 Two real cases: UK 2014 and Germany 1995...
Prof. Dr. Gerhard BoschUniversität Duisburg EssenInstitut Arbeit und QualifikationForsthausweg 2, LE, 47057 DuisburgTelefon: +49 (0)203 / 379-1339; Fax: +49 (0)203 / 379-1809 Email: [email protected]; www.iaq.uni-due.de In
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Gerhard Bosch
INEQUALITIES, NEOLIBERALISM AND EUROPEAN INTEGRATION: PROGRESSIVE ANSWERSAthens, 23rd - 25th November 2017, MEGARON, The Athens Concert Hall, Nikos Skalkotas Hall Vass. Sophias & Kokkali
Reducing inequality by collective bargaining
Structure of presentation
1. Impact of neoliberal LM deregulation2. Inclusive CB - Powerful instrument to
reduce inequality3. Impact of wage restraint on other EU-
countries4. Weakening of democratic institutions
1.1 The Neoliberal Labor Market Model (NLMM)
Basic assumptions – equilibrium through- micro- and macro-wage-flexibility- no negative macro-economic effects- neglectable trade-offs
LM-institutions like Collective Bargaining- a barrier to micro and macro-flexibility
(especially industry wide bargaining, extensionof agreements, favorability principle, after-effects)
- no other functions like democratic rights, balancing power relations in society
1.2 Impact of NLMM on Ranking – Example: The Global Competitive Index of the World Economic Form
Source: World Economic Forum, The Global Competitiveness Report 2016–2017
1.4 Deregulation of Greek LM – show caseAbolition of inclusive LM-institutions
• Abolition of extension of CA‘s and favorability principle; reduction oftime extension and after effect to 3 months; maximum of duration 3 years; easy exit options: deviating firm agreements by „associations ofpersons“
Impact: • deepening of economic crisis – optimistic prognosis of
institutions all wrong• ongoing erosion of CB (MW becoming the going rate)• ongoing increase of income inequality and weakening of
social dialogue
Cynical recommendation of OECD to Greece „to make economicgrowth more inclusive by urgently adopting policies to reducepoverty and inequality“ (OECD: Economic survey of Greece 2016)
1.5 Forecast Errors on Greek GDP by EU Commission
Source: EU Commission, own compilation
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Spring 2008
Fall 2008
Spring 2009
Fall 2009
Spring 2010
Fall 2010
Spring 2011
Fall 2011
Spring 2012
Fall 2012
Spring 2013
Fall 2013
Spring 2014
Fall 2014
Spring 2015
Fall 2015
Spring 2016
Fall 2016
Spring 2017
Fall 2017
Spring 2008
Fall 2008
Spring 2009Fall 2009
Spring 2010
Spring 2011
Spring 2012
Fall 2012
Spring 2013
Spring 2014
Fall 2014
Spring 2015
Fall 2015
Fall 2016
Spring 2017Fall 2017
1.6 Collective bargaining coverage (2009, 2013)
Source: ICTWSS Database
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
FR ES EL
2009
2013
Source: OECD (2016),5In: It Together: Why Less Inequality Benefits All.http://www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-greece.htm
Structure of presentation
1. Impact of neoliberal LM deregulation2. Inclusive CB - Powerful instrument to
reduce inequality3. Impact of wage restraint on other EU-
countries4. Weakening of democratic institutions
2.1 Rate of coverage by collective agreements and share of low-wage work (2014)
Source: Visser 2015, Eurostat, own calculations
2.2 Wage distribution in a liberal market economy with MW and in coordinated market economy with high coverage by collective agreements
:
2.3 Two real cases: UK 2014 and Germany 1995
Source: : SOEP 2012, own calculations; Dickens (2015): The Low Pay Commission and the National Minimum Wage. Presentation to NEDLAC
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Increasing efficiency
Micro-flexibility encourages low-road business-models
Research shows clearly benefits of co-ordinated CB:- Extension of scope and time horizon of CB:
negotiations on internal flexibility (skills, w-time)- Reduction of transaction costs for companies –
highly important for SME‘s- Levelled playing fields for companies: Encourages
investments in skills- Reduction of bureaucracy – creation of labour
standards according to the needs of industries –unburdenthe state from interventions
Structure of presentation
1. Impact of neoliberal LM deregulation2. Inclusive CB - Powerful instrument to
reduce inequality3. Impact of wage restraint on other EU-
countries4. Weakening of democratic institutions
3.1 Unit Labor Costs (2000 = 100)
Source:
3.2 Increasing imbalances of payments in EU (in billion €)
Source: Albu et al. (2017) IMK Report 128.
IrelandItalyPortugalSpainAustriaBelgium
Germany
NetherlandsGreeceFrance
3.3 Development of domestic demand 2000q1=100 (1)
Source: Albu et al. (2017). IMK Report 128.
Belgium
Finland
France
Netherlands
Germany
Euro zone
3.3 Development of domestic demand 2000q1=100 (2)
Source: Albu et al. (2017) IMK Report 128..
Spain
Italy
Greece
Euro zone
3.4 Drivers of trade imbalances
Germany trade surplus 8,5% of GDP in 2016 - Reduction of surplus by higher wage increases in DE?Different views- EU-Commission “Overall there is no evidence that wage
developments are at the root of the development” (European Economy 9/2012: 91) – Why then the dictate of the institutions?
- German government: Low price elasticity of German exports, ageing society needs savings for the future…
- IMK: yes low price elasticity – but German wage restraint reduced domestic demand and therefore imports – a combination of wage increases and investments programs would help
Also weak price elasticity of Greek exports – depend on growth strategies – focus on the quality of exports
Impacts of the Neoliberal Labor Market Model
1. Increase of social inequality – erosion of themiddle class
2. Undermining built-in-stabilizers in economiccrisis
3. Reduction of efficiency4. Weakening of democratic institutions
4 .Weakening of democratic institutions
- Trade-unions give employees a voice in politicaldecisions
- Fragmentation of CB marginalizes unions- Increasing inequality reduces participation in
political life like in voting in political elections
Result: - No countervailing power to business lobbying -easier for special interests to influence politicaldecisions
Decreasing voters participation in Bundestag-elections 1980 to 2012
Abgebildet sind die aus einer logistischen Regression ermittelten Wahlwahrscheinlichkeiten unterschiedlicher sozialer Gruppen, wenn Alter, Geschlecht, Bildung und politisches Interesse konstant gehalten werden.
Source: Bundesregierung,, Armuts- und Reichtumsbericht 2017.
Conclusion
Clearly negative impacts of labor market deregulationand need for implementing proposal of the expert group of the Greek government and the institutions
But caution:- Opposition to neo-liberalism not sufficient- Resistance to all reforms support demands for
deregulation- Continuous need to reform collective agreements- The positive impacts of co-ordinated CB do not
come automatically – require trust between socialpartners and modernization of CA (for example w-time flexibility for employees as well as for employers)
Annex
(1) Development of hourly gross wages in selected countries - 2000q1=100
Source: Albu et al. (2017) IMK Report 128
Finland
France
Netherlands
Belgium
Germany
Euro zone