Automobile - August 2013

7/29/2019 Automobile - August 2013

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15.9

29.1

FY13 FY20Two wheelers (million units)

Source: Aranca Research; Note: E Estimate

By 2020, India's share in the

global passenger vehicle

market to double to 8 per cent

from 4 per cent over 201011

Third-largest automobile

industry by 2020E

Twowheeler sales to rise from

15.9 million in FY2013 to 29.1

million by FY2020E

Worlds second-largest two

wheeler manufacturer

Passenger vehicle sales to

increase from 3.2 million in

FY2013 to 9.0 million in

FY2020E

Passenger vehicle sales to

nearly triple by 2020E

CAGR: 9%

4%

8%

2010 2020

India's share in global passenger vehicle market

3.2

9.0

FY13 FY20

Passenger vehicles (million units)

CAGR: 16%


4/38

The engineering sector is delicensed;100 per cent FDI is allowed in thesector

Due to policy support, there wascumulative FDI of USD14.0 billion intothe sector over April 2000 February2012, making up 8.6 per cent of totalFDI into the country in that period

Growing demand

Source:Automotive Mission Plan (20062016)

Note: R&D Research and Development; FDI Foreign Direct Investment; FY Indian Financial Year (April March);

FY16E Estimated figure for Financial Year 2016

Growing demand

Strong growth in demand due torising income, middle class, and ayoung population is likely to propelIndia among the worlds top fiveauto manufacturers by 2015

Growth in export demand is set to

accelerate

Innovation opportunities

Tata Nano and the upcoming Pixelhave opened up the potentiallylarge ultra low-cost car segment

Innovation is likely to intensifyamong engine technology andalternative fuels

Policy support

The government aims to developIndia as a global manufacturing as

well as R&D hub There has been a wide array of

policy support in the form of sops,taxes and FDI encouragement

Rising investments

India has significant costadvantages; auto firms save 10-25

per cent on operations vis--visEurope and Latin America

A large pool of skilled manpowerand a growing technology basewould induce greater investments

FY10

Market

size:

USD57.7

billion

FY16E

Market

size:

USD145

billion

Advantage

India


5/38

Source: Tata Motors, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM),

Aranca Research

Note: JV Joint Venture

Closed market Five players

Long waiting

periods andoutdated models

Sellers market

Joint venture (JV):

Indian government and

Suzuki formed MarutiUdyog; commenced

production in 1983

Component

manufacturers entered

the market via JV

Buyers market

Sector de-licensed in

1993

Major original

equipment

manufacturers (OEMs)

started assemblyoperations in India

Imports permitted fromApril 2001

Introduction of value-

added tax in 2005

More than 35 market

players

Removal of most import

controls

Indian companies gaining

acceptance on a global

scale

Setting up of National

Automotive Board to actas facilitator between the

government and industry

0.4 million

units (1982)

0.6 million

units (1992)

11 million

units (2007)

20.7 million

units (FY13)

Before 1982

198392

19932007

2008 onwards


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Automobiles

Two-wheelers

Mopeds

Scooters

Motorcycles

Electric two-wheelers

Passenger vehicles

Passenger cars

Utility vehicles

Multi-purposevehicles

Commercial vehicles

Lightcommercial

vehicles

Mediumand heavy

commercialvehicles

Three-wheelers

Passenger carriers

Goods carriers


7/38

Revenue trends over the past few years

(USD million)

Source: SIAM, Datamonitor, Aranca Research

Note: * Does not include three wheelers

The gross turnover of automobile manufacturers in India expanded at a CAGR of 17.7 per cent over FY07-11

Excluding three wheelers, trucks accounted for the largest share of revenues (47.8 per cent in 2011)

Market* break-up by revenues (2011)

30.5

36.633.3

43.3

58.6

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

47.8%

31.8%

20.4%Trucks

Cars

Two Wheelers

CAGR:17.7%


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Total production of automobiles in India (million units)

Source: SIAM, Aranca Research

Note: CAGR Compound Annual Growth Rate

Production of automobiles increased at a CAGR of 12.2 per cent over FY05-13

Passenger vehicles was the fastest growing segment, representing a CAGR of 15.4 per cent

1.2

1.3

1.3 1

.6 1.8 2

.4 3.0

3.1

3.2

0.4

0.4

0.5 0

.6

0.4 0

.60.8 0

.8

0.8

0.4

0.4 0

.6

0.5 0

.5

0.6 0

.8 0.8

0.8

6.5

7.6 8

.5 8 8.4

10.5

13.4

15.5

15.9

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13

Passenger Vehicle Commercial Vehicle Three Wheelers Two Wheelers


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Market share by volume (FY13)Two wheelers dominate production volumes; in FY13, thesegment accounted for about three quarters of the total

automotive production in the country

India is the worlds second-largest two wheeler

manufacturer and fourth-largest producer of commercial

vehicles

77%

15%

4% 4% Two Wheelers

Passenger Vehicle

CommercialVehicle

Three Wheelers



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Share in production of passenger vehicles (FY13) Share in production of commercial vehicles (FY13)

80.7%

19.3%

Passenger cars

Utility vehicle

29.4%

70.6%

MCV & HCV

LCV


Note: LCV Light Commercial Vehicle;

MCV Medium Commercial Vehicle;

HCV Heavy Commercial Vehicle


11/38

Share in production of three-wheelers (FY13) Share in production of two-wheelers (FY13)

18.3%

81.7%

Goods Carrier

Passenger carrier

5.9%

78.7%

15.3%

Mopeds

Motocycles

Scooters



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Exports of automobiles from India (million units)

Automobile export volumes increased at a CAGR of 19.1 per cent over FY0513

Two-wheeler segment reported the fastest growth (22.2 per cent) followed by three-wheelers (16.3 per cent) over FY0513

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.0 0

.10.1

0.0

0.0 0

.10.1

0.10

.10.1

0.1

0.1 0

.2 0.2 0

.3 0.4 0.30.4

0.5 0

.6

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.5

2.0

2.0

FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13




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Exports shares by volume (FY13)Two wheelers accounted for the largest share in exports (byvolume) at 67 per cent in FY13

Passenger vehicles comprised a sizeable 19 per cent of

overall exports

Exports of passenger vehicles registered the highest growth

at 9.02 per cent in FY13

19%

3%

11%

67%

Passenger Vehicle

Commercial

Vehicle

Three Wheelers

Two Wheelers



14/38

Growth forecast for sales


Note: E Estimate, UV Utility Vehicle

Auto sales across categories are estimated to rise 6-8 per

cent in FY14

Passenger vehicles are projected to grow 5-7 per cent in

FY14

Passenger car segment is estimated to expand 3-5

per cent

SUVs are projected to increase 11-13 per cent

Commercial vehicles are forecast to rise 7-9 per cent

LCVs are estimated to grow 10-12 per cent

MCVs and HCVs are projected to increase 1-3 per

cent

Three wheelers are estimated to rise 3-5 per cent in FY14

Two-wheelers are expected to grow 6-8 per cent in FY14

4%

27%28%

12%

3%

8%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E

Auto sales growth

Growth forecast for the auto segment

13%

33%

25%

3%

2%

7%

-33%

50%

33%

0%

-2% 9

%

0%

20%

33%

0%

5%

5%

5%

2

5%

2

8%

16%

3%

8%

FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E



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16.8 22.0

30.0

FY13 FY15 FY20

Two & three wheelers (million units)

0.81.4

2.2

FY13 FY15 FY20

Commercial vehicles (million units)

3.2

5.0

9.0

FY13 FY15 FY20

Passenger vehicles (million units)

Passenger vehicles to increase at a CAGR of 16

per cent during FY201320

Commercial vehicles expected to register a CAGR

of 16 per cent during FY201320

Two and three wheelers projected to expand at a

CAGR of 9 per cent during FY201320

CAGR: 16%

CAGR: 16%

CAGR: 9%

Source: SIAM, Vision 2020, Aranca Research


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The Indian luxury car market expanded at a CAGR of 30 per cent, with 23,000 units in2011 (about 1 per cent of the passenger vehicle market in India). The market isdominated by players such as BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Jaguar

India has the worlds 12th-largest HNI population, with a growth of 20.8 per cent(highest among the top 12 countries)

With expansion in the education and realty sectors, and increasing wealth of ITprofessionals, more consumers aspire to own luxury cars

The Indian luxury car market is estimated to expand at a CAGR of 25 per cent during201220 and reach 150,000 units by 2020 (accounting for 4 per cent of the estimated6.8-million-unit domestic car market)

The luxury SUV segment is growing at about 50 per cent, while luxury sedans areincreasing 2530 per cent

Scenario

Key drivers

Notable

Trends

Source: World Wealth Report (2011) of Merrill Lynch Wealth Management and Capgemini, Aranca Research

Note: HNI - High Networth Individuals


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Note: Data is for FY10

The automotives industry is concentrated with leaders in each segment commanding a share of over 40 per cent

Market Leader Others

Passenger Vehicles 45% 20% 10% 4%

MCVs & HCVs 63% 23% 7%

LCVs 59% 30% 4% 4%

Three Wheelers 41% 40% 10%

Motorcycles 59% 24% 7% 6%

Scooters 51% 21% 14% 10%


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New product launches Large number of products available to consumers across various segments; this has

gathered pace with the entry of a number of foreign players

Reduced overall product lifecycle have forced players to employ quick product launches

Improving product-

development

capabilities

Increasing R&D investments from both the government and the private sector

Private sector innovation has been a key determinant of growth in the sector; two good

examples are Tata Nano and Tata Pixel; while the former has been a success in India, thelatter is intended for foreign markets

Alternative fuels

In FY11, the CNG market was worth more than USD330 million; CNG cars and taxis are

expected to register a CAGR of 28 per cent over FY11FY14

The CNG distribution network in India is expected to increase to 250 cities by 2018 from

30 cities in 2009

New financing options

Carmakers such as BMW, Audi, Toyota, Skoda, Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz havestarted providing customised finance to customers through NBFCs

Major MNC and Indian corporate houses are moving towards taking cars on operating

lease instead of buying them

Note: NBFCs - Non-Banking Finance Companies


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Strong

government

support

Growing demand

Inviting Resulting in

Growing demandIncreasing

investmentsPolicy support

Rising income,

young population

Greater

availability of

credit and

financing options

Strong growth in

exports

Goal of

establishing Indiaas an auto-

manufacturing hub

R&D focus; GOI

has set up a

technology

modernisation fund

Policy sops, FDI

encouragement

Rising

investments fromdomestic and

foreign players

Greater product

innovation; market

segmentation

Demand projected

to remain strong,

making returns

attractive

Note: GOI Government of India


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Increasing income and middle-class population

GDP per capita is estimated to have grown from USD

1369.54 in 2010 to USD 1,591.57 in 2012, and is

expected to reach USD 2,428.45 by 2017

Apart from the impact of rising incomes, widening of the

consumer base will also be aided by expansion of themiddle class, increasing urbanisation, and changing

lifestyles

A young population is boosting demand for cars

Demand for commercial vehicles increased due to the

development of roadways and greater market access

Changing income dynamics of Indias population

Source: McKinsey Quarterly, Aranca Research

1 3 72 6

1712

25

2935

40

3250

2615

2008 2020 2030

Globals (>18412.8) Strivers (9206.4-18412.8)

Seekers (3682.5 - 9206.4) Aspirers (1657-3682.5)

Deprived (


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Easy availability of credit

Greater access to credit eases the purchase of

passenger and commercial vehicles

The auto finance penetration has increased at a CAGR

of 16.6 per cent to USD15.5 billion during FY07-11

BMW, Audi, Toyota, Skoda, Volkswagen and Mercedes-

Benz have started providing customised finance to

customers, dealers and suppliers through dedicated

non-banking finance companies (NBFCs)

Indian auto finance market size (USD billion)

Source: Kotak Mahindra Prime, Aranca Research

Note: Greater distributional efficiencies, increasing demand

(especially from rural areas) due to rising disposable incomeshave created new markets for products within the country

11.3

14.1 12.415.3

21.6

8.5 10.2

8.1

10.7

15.5


Car Industry sales volume Vehicle Finance Penetration


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Design and

Engineering skills

Manufacturing

skills

Manpower

costs

Supplier

base

Raw

materials

East Asia

Korea

China

Thailand

Indonesia

Vietnam

Central & Eastern

Europe

Czech Republic

Romania

Poland

Slovakia

Russia

Hungary

Turkey

Latin AmericaBrazil

Mexico

Less competitive than India In competition with India Source:ACMA, Aranca Research


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Auto Policy 2002 Automatic approval for foreign equity investment up to 100 per cent; no minimum

investment criteria

Encourage R&D by offering rebates on R&D expenditure

Automotive Mission

Plan (AMP) 200616

AMPs vision is to make India a preferred destination for designing and manufacturing of

automobiles and achieve a market size of USD154 billion by 2016

Setting up of a technology modernisation fund focussed on SMEs

Establishment of automotive training institutes, auto design centres and special auto parks

NATRiPs

Set up at a total cost of USD388.5 million to enable the industry to be on par with global

standards

Nine R&D centres of excellence with focus on low-cost manufacturing and productdevelopment solutions

Dept. of Heavy

Industries & Public

Enterprises

Worked towards reduction of excise duty on small cars and increase budgetary allocation

for R&D

Weighted increase in R&D expenditure to 200 per cent from 150 per cent (in-house) and175 per cent from 125 per cent (outsourced)

Note: SME Small and Medium Enterprises, R&D - Research and Development, NATRiP National Automotive Testing and R&D

Infrastructure Project, AMP - Automotive Mission, JNNURM - Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission

Union Budget FY14 Proposal to allocate USD2.7 billion for JNNURM to bolster sales volumes of Medium and

Heavy Commercial Vehicles (MHCV)


24/38

Business Description

Vehicles Research & DevelopmentEstablishment (VRDE), Ahmednagar

Research, design, development and testing of vehicles

Centre of excellence for photometry, electromagnetic compatibility (EMC) and

test tracks

Indore National Automotive TestTracks (NATRAX)

Complete testing facilities for all vehicle categories

Centre of excellence for vehicle dynamics and tyre development

Automotive Research Association ofIndia (ARAI), Pune

Services for all vehicle categories

Centre of excellence for power-train development and material

Chennai Centre, Tamil Nadu Complete homologation services for all vehicle categories

Centre of excellence for infotronics, EMC and passive safety

Rae Bareilly Centre Services to agri-tractors, off-road vehicles and a driver training centre

Centre of excellence for accident data analysis

International Centre for AutomotiveTechnology (iCAT), Manesar

Services to all vehicle categories

Centre of excellence for component development, noise vibration and

harshness (NVH) testing

Silchar Centre, Assam Research, design, development and testing of vehicles

Centre of excellence for photometry, EMC and test tracks


25/38

Source: ACMA, Aranca Research

DelhiGurgaon

Faridabad

Kolkata

Jamshedpur

Chennai Bengaluru

Hosur

MumbaiPune

Nashik

Aurangabad

List of companies

North

West

East

South

Ashok

Leyland

Force

Motors

Piaggio

Swaraj

Mazda

Amtek

Auto

Eicher

Honda

SIEL

Maruti

Suzuki

Tata

Motors

Bajaj Auto

Hero

Group

Ashok

Leyland

Bajaj Auto

FIAT

GM

M&M

Eicher

Skoda

Bharat

Forge

Tata

Motors

Volkswag

en

Renault-

Nissan

M&M

Tata

Motors

Hindustan

Motors

Simpson

& Co

Internatio

nal Auto

Forgings

JMT

Exide

Ashok

Leyland

Ford

M&M

Toyota

Kirloskar

Volvo

Sundaram

Fasteners

Enfield

Hyundai

BMW

Bosch

TVS

Motor

Company

Renault-

Nissan


26/38

Source: Aranca Research

Note: All figures as of 2011-12

WEST: Maharashtra, and

Gujarat are hubs for

heavy and light vehiclemanufacturing

EAST: Jamshedpur is the

site for Tatas heavy

vehicle manufacturing

NORTH: Delhi is a hub for light

vehicle manufacturing, whereas

Haryana and Uttarakhand are

hubs for heavy vehicle

manufacturing

SOUTH: Chennai hosts

manufacturing plants for

heavy and light vehicles

NORTH WEST: Rajasthan is

a major hub for light vehicle

manufacturing

Heavy Vehicle Manufacturing Plant

Light Vehicle Manufacturing Plant


27/38

Revenue trends over the past few years

(USD million)

Source: Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion (India),

Aranca Research

FDI inflows in the automotives sector aggregated USD8.1 billion (4.2 per cent of the total FDI) over April 2000 February

2013

1.2 1.2

1.3

0.9

1.5


FDI in automobile industry (USD billion)

DelhiGurgaon

Faridabad

Kolkata

Jamshedpur

Chennai Bengaluru

Hosur

MumbaiPune

Nashik

Aurangabad

Ahmedabad


28/38

Source: Respective Company Websites, News Articles, Aranca Research

Global car majors have been ramping up investments in India to cater to the growing domestic demand. Also, these

manufacturers plan to leverage Indias competitive advantage to set up export-oriented production hubs

Chennai plant nearly doubled production to 250,000 cars

Completed 80 per cent investment at Oragadam, a car plant near Chennai

Launched an automatic transmission variant for its petrol model of the sedan, Fiesta

Laid the foundation for an USD1-billion plant at Sanand in March 2012

Increased annual output at the Chennai plant to 11,000 units in Jun 2011 from 10,000 units earlier

Plans to raise the number of car offerings in the sub USD46,729 category

Plans to launch up to eight models over the next 56 years

Aims to invest USD167 million at the fourth unit in Karnataka in 2012

Plans to set up a greenfield diesel engine factory at its second industrial location in Rajasthan

Expects to invest another USD163 million at Bidadi plant near Bengaluru

Plans to increase capacity to 310,000 units by 2013 with an investment of USD187 million

Aims to invest USD89.6 million for a diesel engine plant in India which would be operational from 2013

Plans to invest USD71 million at the Pune plant to launch five compact cars


29/38

Source: Company Website, Aranca Research

1983 1994 1997 2001 2004 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Roll-out of peoples

car (Maruti 800)

Capacity

expansion

Enhanced R&D

capability

Increased

productivity

Product portfolio

expansion

Continuing market

leadership

Product portfolio

comprising 16

passenger vehiclemodels

Accounted for 45

per cent share inthe Indian car

market

Plans to produce

1.7 million cars by

2013

2011

Roll-out of 10

millionth car

1994Production of

1 millionth car

In the process of

establishing

Suzukis largest

R&D facility

outside Japan

2012

Total sales

crossed 1million

units in FY12


30/38


1945 1954 1961 1977 1982 1986 1991 1998 2005 2008 2010 2012

Joint ventures

Acquisitions

Enhancing

R&D capability

Product portfolio

expansion

Market expansion

Disruptive innovation JV with

Daimler AG

Production offirst

indigenously

designed LCV

Acquisition

of Jaguarand

Landrover

Acquired

stake in

Hipo

Carrocera

SA

Launched

Indica, India's

first fully

indigenous

passenger car

Establishment

of TataEngineering &

Locomotives

Launch of thefirst

indigenous

CV

Introduction

of

Megapixel,

an electric

vehicle

Launched

Tata Nano


31/38

Tata Nano sales FY 2010-13 (units)


Note: YOY Year on Year

Tata Nano ranked among the top 10 best-selling cars of

2012. It was recently declared the most trusted four-wheeler

brand by The Brand Trust Report, India Study 2013

Nano was the only petrol car among the top-selling cars of

2012 to post a positive yoy growth. Tata adopted a different

marketing pitch and launched the 2012 Tata Nano, which

offered a lot of new features for no extra charge

Sales of the Nano more than doubled to 73,848 units in

FY13 from its launch in FY10

Currently, Tata exports Nano to Sri Lanka and Nepal and

has plans to export the car to Bangladesh. The company is

likely to add new export markets such as Africa, South

America, and Southeast Asia

Tata expects to launch two new variants of the Nano in2013 to augment sales. A CNG variant would be launched

in the first half of 2013, while a diesel version is likely to be

launched in the latter half

30,763

70,432 74,527 73,848

FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13Sales


32/38

M&M Auto sales Domestic and export

(000 units)


M&M has been the market leader in utility vehicles in India

for over 50 years since building the first Willys jeep in 1947

Manufactures passenger vehicles, utility vehicles, light

commercial vehicles (including three-wheelers)

Produces 15 passenger vehicle models and 8 commercial

vehicle models, noteworthy among which are Scorpio, Thar,

Xylo, XUV 500

Global player in exporting products to several countries in

North America, Europe, Africa, South America, South Asia,

and the Middle East; exported 32,457 units in FY13

Recorded segment revenue of USD3.6 billion in 9MFY13

Launched Verito Refresh, Quanto, and Rexton in FY2013

Launched the e20 electric car in March 2013 after acquiring

carmaker Reva Technology

In 2013, inked a partnership with online shopping portal

Snapdeal.com to sell its two-wheelers

65 87117 145 149

178 231 230

298

377

483563

FY02

FY03

FY04

FY05

FY06

FY07

FY08

FY09

FY10

FY11

FY12

FY13

Sales

CAGR: 22%


33/38

Note: M&M Mahindra & Mahindra

Strong support from the

government; setting up of

NATRiP centres

Private players, such as

Hyundai, Suzuki, GM, keen to

set up R&D base in India

Strong education base, largeskilled English-speaking

manpower

Comparative advantage in

terms of cost

The worlds cheapest car

(Tata Nano) has directed

focus on the low-income

market

Bajaj Auto, Hero Honda and

M&M plan to jointly develop a

technology for two-wheelers

to run on natural gas

Electric cars likely to be a

sizeable market segment in

the coming decade

Tata Motors to launch

MiniCAT, a car running oncompressed air, thereby

stepping into the next era

where cars would not require

any fossil fuel and emissions

would be almost nil

General Motors, Nissan and

Toyota announced plans to

make India their global hub

for small cars

Light vehicle sales estimated

to cross 3 million by the end

of 2012

Strong export potential in ultra

low-cost cars segment (to

developing and emerging

markets)

India is fast emerging as a

global R&D hub

Opportunities for creating

sizeable market segments

through innovations

Small-car manufacturing hub


34/38

Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM)

Core 4-B, 5th Floor, India Habitat Centre

Lodhi Road, New Delhi 110 003

India

Phone: 91 11 246478102

Fax: 91 11 24648222

E-mail: [email protected]


35/38

CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate

CV: Commercial Vehicle

FDI: Foreign Direct Investment

FY: Indian financial year (April to March)

So FY10 implies April 2009 to March 2010

GOI: Government of India

HCV: Heavy Commercial Vehicle

INR: Indian Rupee

LCV: Light Commercial Vehicle

OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturers

PV: Passenger Vehicle

SIAM: Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers


36/38

ULCC: Ultra Low Cost Car

USD: US Dollar

Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number


37/38

Year INR equivalent of one USD

2004-05 44.95

2005-06 44.28

2006-07 45.28

2007-08 40.24

2008-09 45.91

2009-10 47.41

2010-11 45.57

2011-12 47.94

2012-13 54.31

Exchange Rates (Fiscal Year)

Year INR equivalent of one USD

2005 45.55

2006 44.34

2007 39.45

2008 49.21

2009 46.76

2010 45.32

2011 45.64

2012 54.69

2013 54.45

Exchange Rates (Calendar Year)

Average for the year


38/38

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Automobile - August 2013

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Transcript of Automobile - August 2013