Backcasting 101

Backcasting 101

Collaborative Strategy Development for Information

ArchitectsMatthew MilanDirector of Insight and Planning

Critical [email protected]

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ASIS&T IA Summit Pre-ConferenceApril 10, 2008

ASIS&T1320 Fenwick Lane, Suite 510Silver Spring, MD 20910, USAPhone (301) 495-0900Fax (301) [email protected]

Backcasting 101

o Objectiveso Historyo Method and Madnesso Planning and Facilitationo Method Walkthrougho Breako Backcasting Exerciseo Breako Exercise Debriefo Reporting and Informingo Selling Backcasting

Workshop Overview

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Backcasting 101

Workshop Objectives

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1. Expose you to the thinking and theory behind the method, and how it came to be used by information architects.

2. Show you how to plan, facilitate and conduct a backcasting session.

3. Give you walkthrough of the method and then conduct a short backcasting session with you, followed by a debrief

4. Give you some ideas on how to think about documenting and leveraging the results of a backcasting session

5. Give you some thoughts on how to sell the backcasting method to peers and/or clients

Backcasting 101

History

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Backcasting: History

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o Scenario Design as Strategyo Robinson’s Backcastingo Backcasting as Information Architecture

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o Scenario Design as Strategyo (Scenario Emergence as Strategy)

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1950’sProto-backcastngAT&T

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1970’sMulti-Scenario PlanningShell

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1990’sGreat Whale ProjectHydro-Québec

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o John Robinson

University of WaterlooUniversity of British ColumbiaSDRIIRESGBFP

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o Futures Under Glass

o 1990 “Futures Under Glass – A Recipe for People Who Hate to Predict”

o Backwards Looking Analysis

o Explicitly Normative and Design Oriented

o Not “what future was is likely to occur”, But “how desirable futures might be obtained”

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o Future Subjunctive

o 2003 Future Subjunctive: Backcasting as Social Learning

o Subjunctive: “designating a mood, the forms of which are employed to denote an action or a state as conceived (and not as fact) and therefore used to express…a contingent, hypothetical or prospective event” – Oxford English Dictionary

o The desired future is not determined in advance of analysis, but is an emergent property of engaging with users and project partners

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o IA Institute

o Supported research in 2005 on the development of strategy tools based on environmental planning techniques.

o Cumulative Effects Assessmento Backcasting

o http://iainstitute.org/documents/research/results/Environmental.Assessment.Tools.pdf

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o Why Information Architecture?

o “The structural design of shared information environments”

o Increasingly, IA’s are getting a seat at the strategy table

o The “Incomplete Toolkit”

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o The Strategic Design of Shared Information Environments…

o Information Architecture as visual organization and modeling

o Information Architecture as a thinking framework

o Information Architecture as structuring information environments through time

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o The challenges with “Big” Backcasting

o Complex, model based and driven by quantitative analysis

o Best suited to skilled practitioners with experience in the method.

o Focus on the “method”, not the “method of the method”

o No simple framework for building a conceptual model of the problem space

o Resource intensive and time consuming

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o Simplifying the Method

o What we’ve done:

o Taken a complex quantitative method and made it simple and qualitative

o Wrapped into a workshop format that can be done in a day

o Tied it to a basic framework for identifying measurement indicators

o Developed a visual thinking framework to capture stakeholder outputs

o Baked in an established facilitation framework to drive consensus

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Method and Madness

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Backcasting: Method

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Turbulent Environments

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Backcasting: Methods and Theory

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Strategy is Turbulent

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Stability :: Complexity :: Chaos

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Wicked Problems

o The problem is not understood until after formulation of a solution.

o Stakeholders have radically different world views and different frames for understanding the problem.

o Constraints and resources to solve the problem change over time.

o The problem is never solved

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Backcasting is a Navigational Tool

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With Backcasting, YOU are the guide

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There IS more then one path

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Scouting Ahead

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Set the timeframe

tnow tfuture

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Baseline the current state

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Define Possible Future States

Future 1

Future 2

Future 3

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Future 1

Future 2

Future 3

Work Backwards and Identify Actions and

Indicators

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Future 1

Future 2

Future 3

Assess Risks and Opportunities

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Q: So great, this is (just) a bunch of post-it notes on the wall…

A: Yes, in the same way that a site architecture is (just) a bunch of boxes and arrows…

o Don’t let the participants focus just on the visual thinking and miss the value of the process. There is value in both, but the map’s role is to bring the process to the forefront, not to serve as the sole output of your workshop. The value is in the shared understanding of the problem space and the possible outcomes.

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Planning and Facilitation

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Backcasting: Planning and Facilitation

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o Planning Overview

o 4 Core Components:

1. Location2. Materials3. Attendees4. Facilitation

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o Planning – Location

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o Planning – Materials

o You’ll need at a minimum:o A wall that is 12’ longo 300 8”x6” post-it notes in at least four colorso 200 5”x3” post-it notes in at least four colorso A full roll of masking tapeo A dozen sharpies

o Nice to have:o Flipcharts, Whiteboard, Kraft Paper

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o Planning – Stakeholders and Attendees

o No set size or standard makeup for your group, but:

o Small groups may not include the range of inputs you needo Large groups may be difficult to controlo Be inclusive rather then exclusive, but don’t be exhaustiveo Invite thinkers in addition to owners

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o Planning – Setup

o Arrive earlyo Prep the roomo Check the facilitation guideso No laptops, no devices, no phoneso No participants over the phoneo If possible, plan for a speedy takedowno Bring a camera; audio is nice but optional

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o Planning – Session Cadence

o Dependent of the following factors:

o Session lengtho Number of attendeeso Number of possible end states you are exploringo Attendee comfort level with structured brainstormingo Organizational and political alignment of the participants

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o Facilitation – Overview

o The “method of the method”

o Backcasting sessions became more productive as more capable facilitation techniques were applied

o Started with “we’re doing facilitation” and moved to a formal facilitation method.

o The choice of how you facilitate the backcasting session is up to you; consider the needs of the participants.

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o Facilitation – Backcasting as Focused Conversations

o We currently use a formal facilitation method called the “Focused Conversation Method”, developed by an organization called ICA that specializes in facilitation services and training.

o We’ll use this method today to help support the backcasting exercise. We’ll conduct a number of focused conversations throughout the exercise to help the group gain consensus as part of each step.

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o Facilitation – The ORID Framework

o The backbone of the Focused Conversation Method is the ORID framework.o O - Objectiveo R - Reflectiveo I - Interpretiveo D - Decisional

o As you conduct a conversation, you ask questions that move the participants through the ORID framework as a group.

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o Facilitation – More on ORID

o There are two primary ways to use ORID to support a group decision-making process

1. Use the components of ORID in iterative sequences to advance the group through the consensus building process

2. Use the components of ORID to listen to where individuals are stuck in the process and ask them questions that help them to become unstuck

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o Facilitation – Driving a Workshop with Focused Conversation

o Your workshop should have both a rational aim, and an experiential aim

o You open each conversation with context, and close with confirmation of a resolution

o ORID is use to drive a conversational process of ideation, relationship formation and consensus building

o You’ll want to prepare a clear focus question at the start of the exercise and structure it so that the resolution of the question at the end of the exercise supports the rational and experiential aims of your exercise.

o Facilitation – The Structure of a Focused Conversation

Closing

•Comments•Reflections

Closing

•Comments•Reflections

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Opening

• Topic• Parameters of Conversation•Participation Guidelines•Time•Concrete beginning point

Opening

• Topic• Parameters of Conversation•Participation Guidelines•Time•Concrete beginning point

Objective

•Getting the facts•Focusing attention on objective information and facts about the topic•Asking for information and sensory impressions

Objective

•Getting the facts•Focusing attention on objective information and facts about the topic•Asking for information and sensory impressions

Reflective

•Personal reactions, associations, emotions, images•Questions bring out people’s immediate reactions and internal associations with the facts

Reflective

•Personal reactions, associations, emotions, images•Questions bring out people’s immediate reactions and internal associations with the facts

Rational Aim

What the group will KNOW, learn or decide by the end of the conversation

Rational Aim

What the group will KNOW, learn or decide by the end of the conversation

Experiential Aim

How the group will be different at the end of the conversation

Experiential Aim

How the group will be different at the end of the conversation

Interpretive

•Meaning, values, significance, purpose, implications.• Questions highlight layers of purpose and meaning•What is the significance people attach to the subject.

Interpretive

•Meaning, values, significance, purpose, implications.• Questions highlight layers of purpose and meaning•What is the significance people attach to the subject.

Decisional

•Resolution•Questions allow people to name, and/or identify their relationship & responses to the situation or topic•Brings the group to resolution

Decisional

•Resolution•Questions allow people to name, and/or identify their relationship & responses to the situation or topic•Brings the group to resolution

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o Facilitation – Objective

o Focus of the questions: Data, the facts about the topic and external realities

o The goal is to have the group deal with the same body of data

o Questions should be in relation to the senses; tangible

o Avoid asking closed questions or unspecific questions

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o Facilitation – Reflective

o Focus of the questions: internal and/or personal relationships to the data

o The goal is to reveal initial reactions to the information and validate the knowledge and experience of the participants

o Questions should be in relation to moods, emotional tones, memories or associations

o Avoid turning the discussion into a survey of likes/dislikes

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o Facilitation – Interpretive

o Focus of the questions: the meaning of the topic

o The goal is to draw out significance from the objective and reflective data/inputs

o Questions should be in relation to layers of meaning, purpose, significance and implications; consideration of alternatives and options

o Avoid inserting “pre-cooked” meaning, intellectualizing or abstracting

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o Facilitation – Decisional

o Focus of the questions: direct accomplishment of the rational aim along with resolution and new directions

o The goal is to make the conversation relevant for the future and complete the current conversation

o Questions are in relation to consensus, implementation and action

o Avoid forcing a decision if the group is not ready or alternately, not pushing the group when a decision is needed.

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o Focused Conversations for Backcasting # 1o Time frame

o O – What time frame is relevant to explore?o R – What aspects of this time frame are you comfortable with?o R – What aspects of this timeframe are you not comfortable

with?o I – Why is this time frame important to exploreo I – What are the implications of exploring this time frame?o D – What are we collectively suggesting should be the time

frame?o D – What is our consensus on the time frame to use for this

exercise?

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o Focused Conversations for Backcasting # 2o Current State

o O – What elements are central to describing the current state?

o 0 – Who are the key players in the current state?o O – What is most striking about the current state?o R – What do you think is positive about the current state?o R – What do you think is negative about the current state?o I – What is significant about the current state?o I – What insights do we have about the current state?o D – Can we agree on a definition of the current state?

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o Focused Conversations for Backcasting # 3o Future States

o O – What elements are central to describing desired future states?

o 0 – Who are the key players in the future state?o O – What is most intriguing about these future states?o R – What do you think is concerning about these future states?o I – What is significant about these future states?o I – What insights do we have about the future state?o D – Can we agree on our definitions of the future state?

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o Focused Conversations for Backcasting # 4o Actions and Indicators

o O – What would be required to “get from there to here”?o 0 – What indicators would you use to measure these actions?o O – What is the relationship between an action and indicator?o R – Why are these the actions that make sense?o R – What do you think is these indicators should tell us?o I – Do these actions push us in one direction or another?o I – Do these indicators have the ability to show directionality?o D – Can we agree on these actions, these indicators?

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o Focused Conversations for Backcasting # 5o Risks and Opportunities

o O – What specific opportunities do you see?o 0 – What specific risks do you see?o O – What are the relationships between opportunities and risks?o R – Why are these opportunities compelling or interesting?o R – What is concerning or threatening about these risks?o I – Do we feel we need additional actions and indicators?o I – Is there overarching significance in the opportunities/risks ?o D – Can we agree that these opportunities and risks are work

exploring further?

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Case Study

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Method Walkthrough

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Backcasting: Method Walkthrough

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o Step 1: Determine the Timeline

o Step 2: Describe the Current State

o Step 3: Draw out the Future States

o Step 4: Determine Actions and Indicators

o Step 5: Assess Risks and Opportunities

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Backcasting: Method Walkthrough

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Backcasting Exercise

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Backcasting: Exercise

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o The Problem:

oWhat is the future value of information architecture?

o The Aims of the Exercise:

o Rational Aim – to ensure that participants have a shared view of what the future value of information architecture ought to be.

o Experiential Aim – to ensure that all participants are exposed to the backcasting method and are intrigued by its possibilities for their work.

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o Set Time Frame

o O – What time frame is relevant to explore?o R – What aspects of this time frame are you comfortable with?o R – What aspects of this timeframe are you not comfortable

with?o I – Why is this time frame important to exploreo I – What are the implications of exploring this time frame?o D – What are we collectively suggesting should be the time

frame?o D – What is our consensus on the time frame to use for this

exercise?

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o Define Current State

o O – What elements are central to describing the current state?

o 0 – Who are the key players in the current state?o O – What is most striking about the current state?o R – What do you think is positive about the current state?o R – What do you think is negative about the current state?o I – What is significant about the current state?o I – What insights do we have about the current state?o D – Can we agree on a definition of the current state?

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o Define Possible Future States

o O – What elements are central to describing desired future states?

o 0 – Who are the key players in the future state?o O – What is most intriguing about these future states?o R – What do you think is concerning about these future states?o I – What is significant about these future states?o I – What insights do we have about the future state?o D – Can we agree on our definitions of the future state?

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o Work Backwards; Define Actions and Indicators

o O – What would be required to “get from there to here”?o 0 – What indicators would you use to measure these

actions?o O – What is the relationship between an action and

indicator?o R – Why are these the actions that make sense?o R – What do you think is these indicators should tell us?o I – Do these actions push us in one direction or another?o I – Do these indicators have the ability to show

directionality?o D – Can we agree on these actions, these indicators?

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o Assess Opportunities and Risks

o O – What specific opportunities do you see?o 0 – What specific risks do you see?o O – What are the relationships between opportunities and

risks?o R – Why are these opportunities compelling or interesting?o R – What is concerning or threatening about these risks?o I – Do we feel we need additional actions and indicators?o I – Is there overarching significance in the

opportunities/risks ?o D – Can we agree that these opportunities and risks are work

exploring further?

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Exercise Debrief

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Backcasting: Exercise Debrief

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o To Start:

o What Worked?o What Didn’t?o What Could We Do Differently Next Time?o What Surprised You?o What Gaps Do You Still Have With Your Understanding of

the Method?

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Reporting and Informing

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Backcasting: Reporting and Informing

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o Goals of Reporting

o Communicating back results of the workshop to the participants: “Here’s what we thought”

o Communicating the results of the workshop to stakeholders who did not attend: “Here is what the group agreed on”

o Moving the organizational perspective and focus from decisions to solutions: “Here is what you see as the road ahead, and here is how we can help you more forward”

o Supporting strategic goal setting by documenting end states and the efforts required to achieve them

o Cementing your role as a partner in further strategy and solution work

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o Types of Outputs:

o Reportso Mapso Stories

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o Using Outputs for Project Planning

o Break the opportunities and indicators out of the mix and focus on two perspectives:o “What can we start to work on immediately and what is a downstream

initiative?”o “How are we going to measure these activities so that we not only

measure success/failure, but also the impact of the activates to the overall strategy map

o Bubble 30, 60 and 90 Day “quick wins to the surface” and move forward with those, having a clear understanding of how they feed into downstream initiatives.

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o Regular Revisits Help!

o This should not be the last time you talk about the exercise

o Arrange regular regroups with the stakeholders to review progress.

o Address current state progress in Quarterly Business Reviews, etc.

o Integrate the backcasting findings into strategic planning work; start planning your next workshop.

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Selling Backcasting

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Backcasting: Selling

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o Selling Backcasting – Why and How

o Your long-term value and revenue pipeline often is created without your initial involvement

o Clients and/or internal groups may not be ready to involve you in strategic decision-making, but are more open to involvement in planning support

o Most strategic planning happens around poorly formed “brainstorming”/ideation workshops. These are prime opportunities to sell in backcasting.

o Sell based on immediate tangible value; 90 day plans and actionable outcomes are more appealing then a discussion about the method itself.

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o Selling Backcasting – Showing Value

o Most groups will have significant frustration with past planning processes, not due to the method but the lack of activity afterwards.

o Talk to the actionable and measureable outcomes of a backcasting session, as well as the development of the strategic landscape.

o Teams love workshops, but rarely enjoy planning them. Be the guide, not the guru in order to support the team

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o Selling Backcasting: Organizational Considerations

o Before proposing the use of backcasting, understand the landscape in which it will be placed

o A good workshop opens up opportunities and avoids alignment with specific agendas

o Backcasting listens, and does not prescribe; set expectations around its value. It is not a silver bullet.

o If it seems like you’re trying to hard to fit it in, you probably are. Wait for the right opportunity, don’t leap for the first one.

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Wrap-up

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Backcasting: Wrap-up

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o A tool not for prediction, but knowing.

o Flexible, fast and inclusive

o Actionable, but only if you decide to make it so

o Builds shared perspective through social learning

o Allows you to demonstrate leadership through support as well as ideas

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Backcasting: Wrap-up

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o The Workshop Objectives Revisited:o Expose you to the thinking and theory behind the method, and how it came to

be used by information architects.o Show you how to plan, facilitate and conduct a backcasting session.o Give you walkthrough of the method and then conduct a short backcasting

session with you, followed by a debriefo Give you some ideas on how to think about documenting and leveraging the

results of a backcasting sessiono Give you some thoughts on how to sell the backcasting method to peers and/or

clients

o Do you understand the basics of the method and feel comfortable in starting to explore its use in your work?

o Did you enjoy the session and get to participate in a way that was meaningful and enjoyable to you?

Thanks

[email protected]@gmail.com

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Backcasting 101

Business

Transcript of Backcasting 101