Climate Change Stellungnahme

8/14/2019 Climate Change Stellungnahme

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Weltweit Steuer auf CO?

VON F. DIEDERICHS, 16.04.07, 20:33hWenn heute der UN-Sicherheitsrat erstmals in seiner Geschichte den

Klimaschutz und die globale Erwrmung zum Hauptthema macht, stelltsich vor allem eine Frage: Wie geht es angesichts des Krisen-Szenarios, dasWissenschaftler in den ersten beiden Teilen des Welt-Klimaberichtszeichneten, weiter?

Am 4. Mai werden Forscher in Bangkok im mit Spannung erwarteten dritten BerichtLsungswege aufzeigen, um die Klimavernderungen abzumildern oder zu stoppen. Die

bisher unverffentlichten Vorschlge umfassen - wie die Rundschau jetzt von an der UN-Studie beteiligten Forschern erfuhr - teilweise spektakulre Ideen, mit denen nach Ansicht vonWissenschaftlern bei konsequentem und schnellem Handeln die prognostizierte Erwrmungder Erdoberflche noch gestoppt werden kann.

Einer der wichtigsten Vorschlge: Anreize und finanzielle Vorteile fr umweltfreundlichereEnergien schaffen - vor allem mit Blick auf Kohlekraftwerke in Lndern wie China undIndien, die nicht die Vereinbarungen von Kyoto unterzeichnet haben. Die Industrienationenmssten im globalen Interesse Wege finden, langfristig ein Umdenken inEntwicklungslndern finanziell attraktiv zu machen. berdacht werden sollten deshalb dieRegeln des bisherigen Emissionshandels, wobei auch angeregt wird, ber eine weltweiteKohlendioxid-Steuer nachzudenken. Gleichzeitig schlagen Forscher vor, das Einfangenund Speichern von Kohlendioxid-Emissionen zu einem Hauptbestandteil im Kampf gegenKlimavernderungen zu machen. Pilotprojekte fr diese Strategien gibt es unter anderem inDeutschland.

Ebenfalls fordern am dritten Klima-Bericht beteiligte Forscher deutliche Energieeinsparungbeim Heizen und Khlen in Gebuden. Gleichzeitig wird fr einen Innovationsschub pldiert,bei dem vor allem Wind- und Solarenergien, aber auch die umstrittene Atomenergie alssaubere Technologien neuen Stellenwert gewinnen knnten.

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Climate change

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Jump to:navigation, searchAtmospheric sciences[cat.]

Meteorology[cat.]weather[cat.]tropical cyclones[cat.]

Climatology[cat.]climate[cat.]climate change[cat.]

Portal Atmospheric SciencesPortal Weather

Variations in CO2, temperature and dust from theVostokice core over the last 450,000 yearsFor current global climate change, see Global warming.For previous global climate change, seeGlobal cooling.

Climate change is the variation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates over time.It involves changes in the variability or average state of the atmosphere overdurationsranging from decades to millions of years. These changes can be caused by dynamic processon Earth, external forces including variations in sunlight intensity, and more recently byhuman activities.

In recent usage, especially in the context ofenvironmental policy, the term "climate change"often refers to changes in modern climate (seeglobal warming). For information ontemperature measurements over various periods, and the data sources available, seetemperature record. For attribution of climate change over the past century, seeattribution ofrecent climate change.
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Contents

[hide]

1 Climate change factorso 1.1 Variations within the Earth's climate

1.1.1 Glaciation 1.1.2 Ocean variability 1.1.3 The memory of climate

o 1.2 Non-climate factors driving climate change 1.2.1 Greenhouse gases 1.2.2 Plate tectonics 1.2.3 Solar variation 1.2.4 Orbital variations 1.2.5 Volcanism

o

1.3 Human influences on climate change 1.3.1 Fossil fuels 1.3.2 Aerosols 1.3.3 Cement manufacture 1.3.4 Land use 1.3.5 Livestock

2 Interplay of factors 3 Monitoring the current status of climate 4 Evidence for climatic change

o 4.1 Pollen analysiso 4.2 Beetleso 4.3 Glacial geologyo 4.4 Historical records

5 Examples of climate change 6 Climate change and biodiversity 7 See also 8 References

9 Notes

[edit] Climate change factors

This article needs additional citations for verification.Please helpimprove this articleby adding reliable references. Unsourced material may bechallengedand removed. (February 2008)

Climate changes reflect variations within the Earth's atmosphere, processes in other parts ofthe Earth such as oceans andice caps, and the effects of human activity. The external factorsthat can shape climate are often called climate forcings and include such processes asvariations insolar radiation, the Earth's orbit, and greenhouse gas concentrations.

[edit] Variations within the Earth's climate

Weather is the day-to-day state of the atmosphere, and is a chaotic non-lineardynamicalsystem. On the other hand, climate the average state of weather is fairly stable andpredictable. Climate includes the average temperature, amount of precipitation, days of
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sunlight, and other variables that might be measured at any given site. However, there are alsochanges within the Earth's environment that can affect the climate.

[edit] Glaciation

Percentage of advancing glaciers in the Alps in the last 80 years

Glaciers are recognized as being among the most sensitive indicators ofclimate change,advancing substantially during climate cooling (e.g., theLittle Ice Age) and retreating duringclimate warming on moderate time scales. Glaciers grow and collapse, both contributing tonatural variability and greatly amplifying externally forced changes. For the last century,however, glaciers have been unable to regenerate enough ice during the winters to make upfor the ice lost during the summer months (see glacier retreat).

The most significant climate processes of the last several million years are the glacial andinterglacial cycles of the present ice age. Though shaped by orbital variations, the internalresponses involvingcontinental ice sheets and 130 m sea-level change certainly played a keyrole in deciding what climate response would be observed in most regions. Other changes,including Heinrich events, DansgaardOeschger events and the Younger Dryas show the

potential for glacial variations to influence climate even in the absence of specific orbitalchanges.

[edit] Ocean variability

A schematic of modern thermohaline circulation

On the scale of decades, climate changes can also result from interaction of the atmosphereand oceans. Many climate fluctuations including not only theEl Nio Southern oscillation(the best known) but also the Pacific decadal oscillation, theNorth Atlantic oscillation, and
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theArctic oscillation owe their existence at least in part to different ways that heat can bestored in the oceans and move between different reservoirs. On longer time scales ocean

processes such as thermohaline circulation play a key role in redistributing heat, and candramatically affect climate.

[edit] The memory of climate

More generally, most forms of internal variability in the climate system can be recognized asa form ofhysteresis, meaning that the current state of climate reflects not only the inputs, butalso the history of how it got there. For example, a decade of dry conditions may cause lakesto shrink, plains to dry up and deserts to expand. In turn, these conditions may lead to lessrainfall in the following years. In short, climate change can be a self-perpetuating process

because different aspects of the environment respond at different rates and in different ways tothe fluctuations that inevitably occur.

[edit] Non-climate factors driving climate change

[edit] Greenhouse gases

Main article:Greenhouse gas

Carbon dioxide variations during the last 500 million years

Current studies indicate that radiative forcing bygreenhouse gases is the primary cause ofglobal warming. Greenhouse gases are also important in understanding Earth's climatehistory. According to these studies, thegreenhouse effect, which is the warming produced asgreenhouse gases trap heat, plays a key role in regulating Earth's temperature.

Over the last 600 million years, carbon dioxide concentrations have varied from perhaps>5000ppm to less than 200 ppm, due primarily to the effect of geological processes and

biological innovations. It has been argued by Veizer et al., 1999, that variations in greenhousegas concentrations over tens of millions of years have not been well correlated to climatechange, with plate tectonics perhaps playing a more dominant role. More recently Royer etal.[1] have used the CO2-climate correlation to derive a value for theclimate sensitivity. Thereare several examples of rapid changes in the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth'satmospherethat do appear to correlate to strong warming, including thePaleoceneEocenethermal maximum, the PermianTriassic extinction event, and the end of the Varangiansnowball earthevent.

During the modern era, the naturally risingcarbon dioxide levels are implicated as theprimary cause ofglobal warming since 1950. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on
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Climate Change (IPCC), 2007, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 in 2005 was 379 ppmcompared to the pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm. Thermodynamics and Le Chatelier's

principle explain the characteristics of the dynamic equilibrium of a gas in solution such asthe vast amount of CO2 held in solution in the world's oceans moving into and returning fromthe atmosphere. These principles can be observed as bubbles which rise in a pot of water

heated on a stove, or in a glass of cold beer allowed to sit at room temperature; gasesdissolved in liquids are released under certain circumstances.

[edit] Plate tectonics

On the longest time scales,plate tectonics will repositioncontinents, shape oceans, build andtear downmountains and generally serve to define the stage upon which climate exists. Morerecently, plate motions have been implicated in the intensification of the presentice agewhen,approximately 3 million years ago, the North and South American plates collided to form theIsthmus of Panama and shut off direct mixing between the Atlantic and PacificOceans.

[edit] Solar variation

Variations in solar activity during the last several centuries based on observations ofsunspotsandberyllium isotopes.

The sun is the ultimate source of essentially all heat in the climate system. The energy outputof the sun, which is converted to heat at the Earth's surface, is an integral part of shaping theEarth's climate. On the longest time scales, the sun itself is getting brighter with higher energyoutput; as it continues its main sequence, this slow change or evolution affects the Earth'satmosphere. It is thought that, early inEarth's history, the sun was too cold to support liquidwater at the Earth's surface, leading to what is known as theFaint young sun paradox.[citationneeded].

On more modern time scales, there are also a variety of forms ofsolar variation, including the11-yearsolar cycle and longer-term modulations. However, the 11-year sunspot cycle doesnot manifest itself clearly in the climatological data. Solar intensity variations are consideredto have been influential in triggering the Little Ice Age, and for some of the warming observedfrom 1900 to 1950. The cyclical nature of the sun's energy output is not yet fully understood;it differs from the very slow change that is happening within the sun as it ages andevolves.[citation needed].

To quote Spencer R. Weart (The discovery of Global Warming 2003) "The study of [sun spot]cycles was generally popular through the first half of the century. Governments had collected

a lot of weather data to play with and inevitably people found correlations between sun spotcycles and select weather patterns. If rainfall in England didn't fit the cycle, maybe storminessin New England would. Respected scientists and enthusiastic amateurs insisted they had
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found patterns reliable enough to make predictions. Sooner or later though every predictionfailed. An example was a highly credible forecast of a dry spell in Africa during the sunspotminimum of the early 1930s. When the period turned out to be wet, a meteorologist laterrecalled "the subject of sunspots and weather relationships fell into dispute, especially amongBritish meteorologists who witnessed the discomfiture of some of their most respected

superiors" Even in the 60s he said, "For a young researcher to entertain any statement of sun-weather relationships was to brand oneself a crank"

[edit] Orbital variations

In their effect on climate, orbital variations are in some sense an extension of solar variability,because slight variations in the Earth'sorbitlead to changes in the distribution and abundanceof sunlight reaching the Earth's surface. Such orbital variations, known as Milankovitchcycles, are a highly predictable consequence of basic physics due to the mutual interactions ofthe Earth, its moon, and the other planets. These variations are considered the driving factorsunderlying the glacial and interglacial cycles of the present ice age. Subtler variations are also

present, such as the repeated advance and retreat of the Sahara desert in response to orbitalprecession.

[edit] Volcanism

A singleeruption of the kind that occurs several times per century can affect climate, causingcooling for a period of a few years. For example, the eruption ofMount Pinatubo in 1991affected climate substantially. Huge eruptions, known as large igneous provinces, occur only afew times every hundred million years, but can reshape climate for millions of years andcausemass extinctions. Initially, scientists thought that the dust emitted into the atmosphere

from large volcanic eruptions was responsible for the cooling by partially blocking thetransmission ofsolar radiation to the Earth's surface. However, measurements indicate thatmost of the dust thrown in the atmosphere returns to the Earth's surface within six months.

Volcanoes are also part of the extendedcarbon cycle. Over very long (geological) timeperiods, they release carbon dioxide from the earth's interior, counteracting the uptake bysedimentary rocks and other geologicalcarbon dioxide sinks. However, this contribution isinsignificant compared to the current anthropogenic emissions. TheUS Geological Surveyestimates that human activities generate more than 130 times the amount of carbon dioxideemitted by volcanoes.[2]

Attribution of recent climate change
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[edit] Human influences on climate change

Anthropogenic factors are human activities that change the environment and influenceclimate. In some cases the chain of causality is direct and unambiguous (e.g., by the effects ofirrigation on temperature and humidity), while in others it is less clear. Various hypotheses for

human-induced climate change have been debated for many years. In the late 1800s, the "rainfollows the plow" idea had many adherents in the western United States.

The biggest factor of present concern is the increase in CO2 levels due to emissions fromfossil fuel combustion, followed by aerosols (particulate matter in the atmosphere), whichexert a cooling effect, andcementmanufacture. Other factors, including land use, ozonedepletion, animal agriculture[3]and deforestation, also affect climate.

[edit] Fossil fuels

Carbon dioxide variations over the last 400,000 years, showing a rise since the industrialrevolution.

Beginning with the industrial revolution in the 1850s and accelerating ever since, the humanconsumption of fossil fuels has elevated CO2 levels from a concentration of ~280 ppm tomore than 380 ppm today. These increases are projected to reach more than 560 ppm beforethe end of the 21st century. It is known that carbon dioxide levels are substantially higher nowthan at any time in the last 750,000 years.[4] Along with rising methane levels, these changesare anticipated to cause an increase of 1.45.6 C between 1990 and 2100 (see globalwarming).

[edit] Aerosols

Anthropogenic aerosols, particularly sulphate aerosols from fossil fuel combustion, exert acooling influence[5]. This, together with natural variability, is believed to account for therelative "plateau" in the graph of 20th-century temperatures in the middle of the century.

[edit] Cement manufacture

Cementmanufacturing is the third largest cause of man-made carbon dioxide emissions.Carbon dioxide is produced when calcium carbonate (CaCO3) is heated to produce the cementingredientcalcium oxide (CaO, also called quicklime). While fossil fuel combustion anddeforestation each produce significantly more carbon dioxide (CO2), cement-making is

responsible for approximately 2.5% of total worldwide emissions from industrial sources(energy plus manufacturing sectors).[6]
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[edit] Land use

Prior to widespread fossil fuel use, humanity's largest effect on local climate is likely to haveresulted from land use. Irrigation, deforestation, and agriculturefundamentally change theenvironment. For example, they change the amount of water going into and out of a given

location. They also may change the local albedo by influencing the ground cover and alteringthe amount of sunlight that is absorbed. For example, there is evidence to suggest that theclimate of Greece and other Mediterranean countries was permanently changed by widespreaddeforestation between 700 BC and 1 AD (the wood being used forshipbuilding,constructionand fuel), with the result that the modern climate in the region is significantly hotter and drier,and the species of trees that were used for shipbuilding in the ancient world can no longer befound in the area.

A controversial hypothesis by William Ruddiman called the early anthropocene hypothesis[7]

suggests that the rise of agriculture and the accompanying deforestation led to the increases incarbon dioxide and methane during the period 50008000 years ago. These increases, whichreversed previous declines, may have been responsible for delaying the onset of the nextglacial period, according to Ruddimann's overdue-glaciation hypothesis.

In modern times, a 2007 Jet Propulsion Laboratory study[8] found that the averagetemperature ofCalifornia has risen about 2 degrees over the past 50 years, with a much higherincrease in urban areas. The change was attributed mostly to extensive human development ofthe landscape.

[edit] Livestock

According to a 2006 United Nations report, Livestock's Long Shadow, livestock isresponsible for 18% of the worlds greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2 equivalents.This however includes land usage change, meaning deforestation in order to create grazingland. In the Amazon Rainforest, 70% of deforestation is to make way for grazing land, so thisis the major factor in the 2006 UN FAO report, which was the first agricultural report toinclude land usage change into the radiative forcing of livestock. In addition to CO2emissions, livestock produces 65% of human-inducednitrous oxide (which has 296 times theglobal warming potential of CO2) and 37% of human-induced methane (which has 23 timesthe global warming potential of CO2).[3]

[edit] Interplay of factors

If a certain forcing (for example, solar variation) acts to change the climate, then there may bemechanisms that act to amplify or reduce the effects. These are calledpositive and negativefeedbacks. As far as is known, the climate system is generally stable with respect to thesefeedbacks: positive feedbacks do not "run away". Part of the reason for this is the existence ofa powerful negative feedback between temperature and emitted radiation: radiation increasesas thefourth powerofabsolute temperature.

However, a number of important positive feedbacks do exist. The glacial and interglacialcycles of the present ice age provide an important example. It is believed that orbitalvariations provide the timing for the growth and retreat of ice sheets. However, the ice sheetsthemselves reflect sunlight back into space and hence promote cooling and their own growth,known as the ice-albedo feedback. Further, falling sea levels and expanding ice decrease plantgrowth and indirectly lead to declines in carbon dioxide and methane. This leads to further
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cooling. Conversely, rising temperatures caused, for example, by anthropogenic emissions ofgreenhouse gases could lead to decreased snow and ice cover, revealing darker groundunderneath, and consequently result in more absorption of sunlight. [9]

Water vapor, methane, and carbon dioxide can also act as significant positive feedbacks, their

levels rising in response to a warming trend, thereby accelerating that trend. Water vapor actsstrictly as a feedback (excepting small amounts in the stratosphere), unlike the other majorgreenhouse gases, which can also act as forcings.

More complex feedbacks involve the possibility of changing circulation patterns in the oceanor atmosphere. For example, a significant concern in the modern case is that melting glacialice from Greenlandwill interfere with sinking waters in the North Atlantic and inhibitthermohaline circulation. This could affect the Gulf Stream and the distribution of heat toEurope and the east coast of theUnited States.

Other potential feedbacks are not well understood and may either inhibit or promote warming.

For example, it is unclear whether rising temperatures promote or inhibit vegetative growth,which could in turn draw down either more or less carbon dioxide. Similarly, increasingtemperatures may lead to either more or less cloud cover.[10] Since on balance cloud cover hasa strong cooling effect, any change to the abundance of clouds also affects climate.[11]

[edit] Monitoring the current status of climate

Scientists use "Indicatortime series" that represent the many aspects of climate and ecosystemstatus. The time history provides a historical context. Current status of the climate is alsomonitored with climate indices.[12][13][14][15]

[edit] Evidence for climatic change

This section needs additionalcitations for verification.Please helpimprove this articleby adding reliable references. Unsourced material may bechallengedand removed. (June 2007)

Evidence for climatic change is taken from a variety of sources that can be used to reconstructpast climates. Most of the evidence is indirectclimatic changes are inferred from changes inindicators that reflect climate, such as vegetation, dendrochronology, ice cores[16] , sea levelchange, and glacial retreat.

[edit] Pollen analysis

Palynology is the science that studies contemporary and fossilpalynomorphs, includingpollen. Palynology is used to infer the geographical distribution of plant species, which varyunder different climate conditions. Different groups of plants havepollenwith distinctiveshapes and surface textures, and since the outer surface of pollen is composed of a veryresilient material, they resist decay. Changes in the type of pollen found in differentsedimentation levels in lakes, bogs or river deltas indicate changes in plant communities;which are dependent on climate conditions[17][18].

[edit] Beetles

Remains ofbeetlesare common in freshwater and land sediments. Different species of beetlestend to be found under different climatic conditions. Knowledge of the present climatic range
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of the different species, and of the age of the sediments in which remains are found, allowspast climatic conditions to be inferred.[19]

[edit] Glacial geology

Advancing glaciers leave behind moraines and other features that often have datable materialin them, recording the time when a glacier advanced and deposited a feature. Similarly, bytephrochronological techniques, the lack of glacier cover can be identified by the presence ofdatable soil or volcanictephra horizons. Glaciers are considered one of the most sensitiveclimate indicators by the IPCC, and their recent observed variations provide a global signal ofclimate change. SeeRetreat of glaciers since 1850.

[edit] Historical records

Historical records include cave paintings, depth of grave digging in Greenland, diaries,documentary evidence of events (such as 'frost fairs' on the Thames) and evidence of areas ofvine cultivation. Daily weather reports have been kept since 1873, and theRoyal Society hasencouraged the collection of data since the seventeenth century.

[edit] Examples of climate change

Climate change has continued throughout the entire history of Earth. The field ofpaleoclimatologyhas provided information of climate change in the ancient past,supplementing modern observations of climate.

1. Climate of the deep past

o Faint young sun paradoxo Snowball eartho Oxygen Catastrophe

2. Climate of the last 500 million yearso Phanerozoic overviewo PaleoceneEocene Thermal Maximumo Cretaceous Thermal Maximumo PermoCarboniferous Glaciationo Ice ages

3. Climate of recent glaciationso DansgaardOeschger evento Younger Dryaso Ice age temperatures

4. Recent climateo Holocene Climatic Optimumo Medieval Warm Periodo Little Ice Ageo Year Without a Summero Temperature record of the past 1000 yearso Global warmingo Hardiness Zone Migration
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[edit] Climate change and biodiversity

The life cycles of many wild plants and animals are closely linked to the passing of theseasons; climatic changes can lead to interdependent pairs of species (e.g. a wild flower andits pollinating insect) losing synchronization, if, for example, one has a cycle dependent on

day lengthand the other on temperature or precipitation. In principle, at least, this could leadto extinctions or changes in the distribution and abundance of species. One phenomenon is themovement of species northwards in Europe. A recent study by Butterfly Conservation in theUK[20], has shown that relatively common species with a southerly distribution have movednorth, whilst scarce upland species have become rarer and lost territory towards the south.This picture has been mirrored across several invertebrate groups. Drier summers could leadto more periods of drought[21], potentially affecting many species of animal and plant. Forexample, in the UK during the drought year of 2006 significant numbers of trees died orshoweddiebackon light sandy soils. In Australia, since the early 90s, tens of thousands offlying foxes (Pteropus) have died as a direct result of extreme heat[22]. Wetter, milder wintersmight affect temperate mammals or insects by preventing them hibernating or entering torporduring periods when food is scarce. One predicted change is the ascendancy of 'weedy' oropportunistic species at the expense of scarcer species with narrower or more specializedecological requirements. One example could be the expanses ofbluebell seen in manywoodlands in the UK. These have an early growing and flowering season before competingweeds can develop and thetree canopy closes. Milder winters can allow weeds to overwinteras adult plants or germinate sooner, whilst trees leaf earlier, reducing the length of the windowfor bluebells to complete their life cycle. Organisations such as Wildlife Trust,World WideFund for Nature,Birdlife International and the Audubon Society are actively monitoring andresearch the effects of climate change on biodiversity and advance policies in areas such aslandscape scale conservation to promote adaptation to climate change[23].
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Senate Report: Over 400 Scientists Dispute Manmade GlobalWarming

By Noel SheppardCreated 2007-12-20 13:26

So, the debate is over, right? The science is settled?

Well, according to a report [1] just published at theUnited States Senate Committee on Environment &Public works website, over 400 prominent scientistsfrom all over the world have "voiced significantobjections to major aspects of the so-called consensus' on man-made global warming."

As it appears a metaphysical certitude green media will totally boycott these revelations,NewsBusters is presenting some of the findings:

Over 400 prominent scientists from more than two dozen countries recently voiced significantobjections to major aspects of the so-called "consensus" on man-made global warming. Thesescientists, many of whom are current and former participants in the UN IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), criticized the climate claims made by the UNIPCC and former Vice President Al Gore.

The new report issued by the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee's office of theGOP Ranking Member details the views of the scientists, the overwhelming majority ofwhom spoke out in 2007.

Even some in the establishment media now appear to be taking notice of the growing numberof skeptical scientists. In October, the Washington Post Staff Writer Juliet Eilperin concededthe obvious, writing that climate skeptics "appear to be expanding rather than shrinking."Many scientists from around the world have dubbed 2007 as the year man-made globalwarming fears "bite the dust." (LINK [2]) In addition, many scientists who are also

progressive environmentalists believe climate fear promotion has "co-opted" the greenmovement. (LINK [3])

This blockbuster Senate report lists the scientists by name, country of residence, andacademic/institutional affiliation. It also features their own words, biographies, and weblinksto their peer reviewed studies and original source materials as gathered from public

statements, various news outlets, and websites in 2007. This new "consensus busters" report ispoised to redefine the debate.

Many of the scientists featured in this report consistently stated that numerous colleaguesshared their views, but they will not speak out publicly for fear of retribution. Atmosphericscientist Dr. Nathan Paldor, Professor of Dynamical Meteorology and Physical Oceanographyat the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, author of almost 70 peer-reviewed studies, explainshow many of his fellow scientists have been intimidated.

Though lengthy, readers are strongly encouraged to review this entire document [4] to learnthe truth about what real scientists - those not receiving Oscars, Emmys, and Nobel PeacePrizes - think about this controversial issue.


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Source URL:

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/12/20/senate-report-over-400-scientists-dispute-manmade-global-warming
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/12/20/senate-report-over-400-scientists-dispute-manmade-global-warminghttp://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/12/20/senate-report-over-400-scientists-dispute-manmade-global-warminghttp://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/12/20/senate-report-over-400-scientists-dispute-manmade-global-warminghttp://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/12/20/senate-report-over-400-scientists-dispute-manmade-global-warming


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June 22, 2007The global warming scam

You know how were told sixty times per minute that man-made global warming is no longer just atheory but its now demonstrable fact, and that anyone who contradicts this is clinically insane

because theres a consensus of all scientists that its happening and only about 2.5 scientists on theentire planet disagree and theyre in the pay of Big Oil anyway so we can forget about them; andso the debate is TOTALLY OVER, says the BBC, which has been told that it is authoritatively by VeryImportant Scientists, so that the impartial and objective BBC says that it no longer needs to giveus a balanced argument about climate change because there just isnt any reputable scientificopposition to the proven facts about seas rising and ice melting and hurricanes happening, allbecause of the human race and its foul and filthy habits of combustibles, cars and capitalism?

Well, read this remarkablearticle in Canadas National Post by R. Timothy Patterson, professor anddirector of the Ottawa-Carleton Geoscience Centre, Department of Earth Sciences, CarletonUniversity. This is what Prof Patterson says:

In a series of groundbreaking scientific papers starting in 2002, Veizer, Shaviv, Carslaw, and most

recently Svensmark et al., have collectively demonstrated that as the output of the sun varies, andwith it, our stars protective solar wind, varying amounts of galactic cosmic rays from deep spaceare able to enter our solar system and penetrate the Earths atmosphere. These cosmic rays

enhance cloud formation which, overall, has a cooling effect on the planet. When the suns energyoutput is greater, not only does the Earth warm slightly due to direct solar heating, but the

stronger solar wind generated during these high sun periods blocks many of the cosmic rays fromentering our atmosphere. Cloud cover decreases and the Earth warms still more.

The opposite occurs when the sun is less bright. More cosmic rays are able to get through toEarths atmosphere, more clouds form, and the planet cools more than would otherwise be thecase due to direct solar effects alone. This is precisely what happened from the middle of the 17thcentury into the early 18th century, when the solar energy input to our atmosphere, as indicatedby the number of sunspots, was at a minimum and the planet was stuck in the Little Ice Age.

These new findings suggest that changes in the output of the sun caused the most recent climatechange. By comparison, CO2 variations show little correlation with our planets climate on long,medium and even short time scales.

In some fields the science is indeed settled. For example, plate tectonics, once highlycontroversial, is now so well-established that we rarely see papers on the subject at all. But thescience of global climate change is still in its infancy, with many thousands of papers publishedevery year. In a 2003 poll conducted by German environmental researchers Dennis Bray and Hansvon Storch, two-thirds of more than 530 climate scientists from 27 countries surveyed did notbelieve that the current state of scientific knowledge is developed well enough to allow for areasonable assessment of the effects of greenhouse gases. About half of those polled stated thatthe science of climate change was not sufficiently settled to pass the issue over to policymakers atall.

Solar scientists predict that, by 2020, the sun will be starting into its weakest Schwabe solar cycleof the past two centuries, likely leading to unusually cool conditions on Earth. Beginning to plan foradaptation to such a cool period, one which may continue well beyond one 11-year cycle, as didthe Little Ice Age, should be a priority for governments. It is global cooling, not warming, that isthe major climate threat to the world, especially Canada.

When youve digested that, allow your gaze to settle mid-text on the list of previous Post articles inits series about the deniers, the scientists who are outside this fabled consensus on globalwarming. Read those articles and you will discover, as did to his astonishment the journalist whowrote them and who had previously accepted the consensus as true and settled fact, that moreand more of the most distinguished names in climate science around the world are saying that thetheory is total junk and who, moreover, have given devastating evidence of the way the globalwarmers have falsified the evidence to create an entirely spurious, anti-scientific and deeply

dishonest panic.
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Theres this article, for example, about Duncan Wingham, Professor of Climate Physics atUniversity College London and Director of the Centre for Polar Observation and Modelling.

Last summer, Dr. Wingham and three colleagues published an article in the journal of the RoyalSociety that casts further doubt on the notion that global warming is adversely affecting Antarctica.By studying satellite data from 1992 to 2003 that surveyed 85% of the East Antarctic ice sheet and

51% of the West Antarctic ice sheet (72% of the ice sheet covering the entire land mass), theydiscovered that the Antarctic ice sheet is growing at the rate of 5 millimetres per year (plus orminus 1 mm per year). That makes Antarctica a sink, not a source, of ocean water. According totheir best estimates, Antarctica will lower[authors italics] global sea levels by 0.08 mm per year.

Then theres this article on Christopher Landsea of the Atlantic Oceanographic & MeteorologicalLaboratory. Chair of the American Meteorological Societys committee on tropical meteorology and

tropical cyclones and a recipient of the American Meteorological Societys Banner I. Miller Award forthe best contribution to the science of hurricane and tropical weather forecasting, Landsea was a

lead author on the subject for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change until hediscovered that that the IPCC was falsley stating that global warming was causing hurricanes to

happen. He wrote:

Where is the science, the refereed publications, that substantiate these pronouncements? Whatstudies are being alluded to that have shown a connection between observed warming trends onthe earth and long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity? As far as I know, there are none.

But since the IPCC

seems to have already come to the conclusion that global warming has altered hurricane activityand has publicly stated so. This does not reflect the consensus within the hurricane researchcommunity

Landsea resigned.

Then there is this articleon Professor Paul Reiter, head of the Insects and Infectious Disease Unitat the Pasteur Institute in Paris, an officer of the Harvard School of Public Health, a member of theWorld Health Organizations Expert Advisory Committee on Vector Biology and Control, and leadauthor of the Health Section of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences ofClimate Variability and Change. This was his experience with the IPCCs handling of his special areaof expertise:

In one of the IPCCs most egregious errors, in its Second Assessment Report chapter on humanpopulation health, it created the scare repeated by scientists with a popular following such asDavid Suzuki that global warming could lead to 80 million additional cases of malaria per yearworldwide. The IPCC scientists glaring ignorance dumbfounded Prof. Reiter and his colleagues. Forexample, the IPCC claimed that malarial mosquitoes cannot ordinarily survive temperatures below16C to 18C, not realizing that many tropical species do and that many temperate species survive

temperatures of 25C. Likewise, IPCC scientists didnt know at what altitudes mosquitoes can befound.

As Prof. Reiter testified to a U.K. parliamentary committee in 2005, The paucity of information washardly surprising: Not one of the lead authors had ever written a research paper on the subject!Moreover, two of the authors, both physicians, had spent their entire career as environmentalactivists. One of these activists has published professional articles as an expert on 32 differentsubjects, ranging from mercury poisoning to land mines, globalization to allergies and West Nilevirus to AIDS. Among the contributing authors there was one professional entomologist, and aperson who had written an obscure article on dengue and El Nino, but whose principal interest wasthe effectiveness of motorcycle crash helmets (plus one paper on the health effects of cellphones).

Then theres Dr Claude Allegre. In 1967 Dr Allegre became director of the geochemistry and

cosmochemistry program at the French National Scientific Research Centre; in 1971, he becamedirector of the University of Pariss Department of Earth Sciences; in 1976, he became director ofthe Paris Institut de Physique du Globe. He is an author of more than 100 scientific articles, manyof them seminal studies on the evolution of the Earth using isotopic evidence, and 11 books. He is
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a member of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the French Academy of Science. Dr.Allegre was among the 1500 prominent scientists who signed World Scientists Warning toHumanity, a highly publicized letter stressing that global warmings potential risks are very greatand demanding a new caring ethic that recognizes the globes fragility in order to stave off spiralsof environmental decline, poverty, and unrest, leading to social, economic and environmentalcollapse. He was therefore part of the fabled Consensus. But now look at what Dr Allegre is saying,as a result of looking at the evolving scientific evidence:

His break with what he now sees as environmental cant on climate change came in September, inan article entitled The Snows of Kilimanjaro in L Express, the French weekly. His article citedevidence that Antarctica is gaining ice and that Kilimanjaros retreating snow caps, among otherglobal-warming concerns, come from natural causes. The cause of this climate change isunknown, he states matter of factly. There is no basis for saying, as most do, that the science issettled. Calling the arguments of those who see catastrophe in climate change simplistic andobscuring the true dangers, Dr. Allegre especially despairs at the greenhouse-gas fanatics whoseproclamations consist in denouncing mans role on the climate without doing anything about itexcept organizing conferences and preparing protocols that become dead letters.

If I were part of the man-made global warming consensus, right now Id be fingering my

professional collar.


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CLIMATE CHANGE: MENACE OR

MYTH?

Fred Pearce

12 February 2005

NewScientist.com

ON 16 FEBRUARY, the Kyoto protocol comes into force. Whether you see this as a triumphof international cooperation or a case of too little, too late, there is no doubt that it was onlymade possible by decades of dedicated work by climate scientists. Yet as these sameresearchers celebrate their most notable achievement, their work is being denigrated as never

before.

The hostile criticism is coming from sceptics who question the reality of climate change.Critics have always been around, but in recent months their voices have become increasingly

prominent and influential. One British newspaper called climate change a "global fraud"based on "left-wing, anti-American, anti-west ideology". A London-based think tankdescribed the UK's chief scientific adviser, David King, as "an embarrassment" for believingthat climate change is a bigger threat than terrorism. And the bestselling author MichaelCrichton, in his much publicised new novel State of Fear, portrays global warming as an evil

plot perpetrated by environmental extremists.

If the sceptics are to be believed, the evidence for global warming is full of holes and the fieldis riven with argument and uncertainty. The apparent scientific consensus over globalwarming only exists, they say, because it is enforced by a scientific establishment riding thegravy train, aided and abetted by governments keen to play the politics of fear. It's easy todismiss such claims as politically motivated and with no basis in fact - especially as themajority of sceptics are economists, business people or politicians, not scientists (see "Meetthe sceptics"). But there are nagging doubts. Could the sceptics be onto something? Are we,after all, being taken for a ride?

Meet the Sceptics

Most of the prominent organisations making the case againstmainstream climate science have an avowed agenda of promotingfree markets and minimal government. They often accept fundingfrom the fossil-fuel industry. Few employ climate scientists.

1 Competitive Enterprise Institute (Washington DC)

A free-market lobby organisation that employs six experts onclimate change. Two are lawyers, one an economist, one a politicalscientist, one a graduate in business studies and one a

mathematician. They include economist Myron Ebell, most famousin the UK for a tirade on BBC radio in November 2004 in which he


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accused the UK Government's chief scientist David King of"knowing nothing about climate science". The institute receivesfunding from ExxonMobil, the world's largest oil company and an

outspoken corporate opponent of mainstream climate science.

2 American Enterprise Institute (Washington DC)

Another free market think tank. The five experts it sent to the mostrecent negotiations on the Kyoto protocol, held in Buenos Aires,Argentina, in December, included just one natural scientist - achemist. Receives money from ExxonMobil.

3 George C. Marshall Institute (Washington DC)

A think tank that has been promoting scepticism on climate changesince 1989. It is a leading proponent of the argument that climatechange is highly uncertain. Receives money from ExxonMobil.

4 International Policy Network (London)

Free-market think tank which in November 2004 said globalwarming was a "myth", and described David King as "anembarassment". Receives money from ExxonMobil.

5 The Scientists

There are a few authoritative climate scientists in the sceptic camp.The most notable are Patrick Michaels from the University ofVirginia, who is also the chief environmental commentator at theCato Institute in Washington DC, and meteorologist RichardLindzen from MIT. Most others are either retired, outsidemainstream academia or tied to the fossil fuel industry. In the UK,three of the most prominent are Philip Stott, a retired

biogeographer, former TV botanist David Bellamy, and MartinKeeley, a palaeogeologist. Keeley argues on a BBC website that"global warming is a scam, perpetrated by scientists with vestedinterests". He is an oil exploration consultant.

This is perhaps the most crucial scientific question of the 21st century. The winning side inthe climate debate will shape economic, political and technological developments for years,even centuries, to come. With so much at stake, it is crucial that the right side wins. But whichside is right? What is the evidence that human activity is warming the world, and how reliableis it?

First, the basic physics. It is beyond doubt that certain gases in the atmosphere, mostimportantly water vapour and carbon dioxide, trap infrared radiation emitted by the Earth'ssurface and so have a greenhouse effect. This in itself is no bad thing. Indeed, without themthe planet would freeze. There is also no doubt that human activity is pumping CO2 into theatmosphere, and that this has caused a sustained year-on-year rise in CO2 concentrations. For


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almost 60 years, measurements at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii have charted thisrise, and it is largely uncontested that today's concentrations are about 35 per cent above pre-industrial levels (see Graph).

The effect this has on the planet is also measurable. In 2000, researchers based at ImperialCollege London examined satellite data covering almost three decades to plot changes in theamount of infrared radiation escaping from the atmosphere into space - an indirect measure ofhow much heat is being trapped. In the part of the infrared spectrum trapped by CO2 -wavelengths between 13 and 19 micrometres - they found that between 1970 and 1997 lessand less radiation was escaping. They concluded that the increasing quantity of atmosphericCO2 was trapping energy that used to escape, and storing it in the atmosphere as heat. Theresults for the other greenhouse gases were similar.

These uncontested facts are enough to establish that "anthropogenic" greenhouse gasemissions are tending to make the atmosphere warmer. What's more, there is little doubt that

the climate is changing right now. Temperature records from around the world going back 150years suggest that 19 of the 20 warmest years - measured in terms of average globaltemperature, which takes account of all available thermometer data - have occurred since1980, and that four of these occurred in the past seven years (see Graph).


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The only serious question mark over this record is the possibility that measurements havebeen biased by the growth of cities near the sites where temperatures are measured, as citiesretain more heat than rural areas. But some new research suggests there is no such bias. DavidParker of the UK's Met Office divided the historical temperature data into two sets: one takenin calm weather and the other in windy weather. He reasoned that any effect due to nearbycities would be more pronounced in calm condition

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