Energiewende, Nachhaltige Entwicklung und die Rolle der ... · 2014 -07 12_rwL 4 Heute...

2014-07-12_rwL

Reinhold W. LANG

Institute of Polymeric Materials and Testing (IPMT)

Johannes Kepler University (JKU) Linz, Austria

Energiewende, Nachhaltige Entwicklung

und die Rolle der Kunststoffe

Eine zentrale technologische Herausforderung

im Anthropozän

ÖPG-AE Energietag 2015

Jahrestagung des Arbeitskreises Energie (AE) der

Österreichischen Physikalischen Gesellschaft (ÖPG)

TU-Wien, 31. August 2015

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A brief survey to start with:

Int. Summer School (July 06 - 08, 2015)

University of Bayreuth, Germany Total number of participants: 23

Future perspectives ? More

optimistic

More

pessimistic

Who is optimistic/pessimistic about your

personal future? 22 1

Who is optimistic/pessimistic about the

future of Europe? 6 17

Who is optimistic/pessimistic about the future of

your generation (regional/global, next 50 years)? 11 12

Who is optimistic/pessimistic about the future of

human civilization (global, mid/long-term)? 9 14

Future Perspectives: Where are we heading?

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These 1:

Die aktuelle Entwicklung der menschlichen Gesellschaft

ist gekennzeichnet durch

Mehrfach-Krisen,

die in ihren Ursachen häufig eng miteinander verknüpft sind,

und die nahezu alle drohen sich weiter zu verstärken.

Zur generellen Situation des Weltgeschehens

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Heute differenzieren wir häufig zwischen Kriegsflüchtlingen und Wirtschaftsflüchtlingen.

These 2: Die aktuelle Flüchtlingskrise ist Ausdruck einer aus dem Gleichgewicht

geratenen Welt- und Gesellschaftsordnung. Schon jetzt ist absehbar, dass sich die

Flüchtlingsproblematik künftig noch dramatisch verschärfen wird, wenn in

zunehmender Zahl Umweltflüchtlinge dazu kommen und wir es nicht schaffen, weltweit

ein zukunftsverträgliches System einer Nachhaltigen Entwicklung zu implementieren,

in dessen Zentrum der Umbau des Energiesystems steht.

Zur gegenwärtigen Flüchtlingsproblematik

Flüchtlinge weltweit 2014:

59,5 Millionen Menschen

https://www.uno-fluechtlingshilfe.de/fluechtlinge/zahlen-fakten.html








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„Was für eine Welt könnten wir bauen, wenn wir die Kräfte,

die ein Krieg entfesselt, für den Aufbau einsetzten.

Ein Zehntel der Energien, ein Bruchteil des Geldes wäre

hinreichend, um den Menschen aller Länder zu einem

menschenwürdigen Leben zu verhelfen.“

Albert Einstein

Zum Thema Militärausgaben

Militärausgaben weltweit (2012)1 1.753 Mrd. US$

3 wichtigsten UN-Hilfsprogramme2 ~17 Mrd. US$ Entwicklungsprogramm UNDP: 5 Mrd. $

Kinderhilfswerk UNICEF: 6,2 Mrd. $

Welternährungsprogramm WFP: ~6 Mrd. $ 1 http://www.frieden-fragen.de

2 http://www.unicef.org/…/2013-ABL4-UNICEF_integrated_budget-…

http://de.wikipedia.org/…/Welternährungsprogramm_der_Verein…

http://de.wikipedia.org/…/United_Nations_Development_Progra…

http://www.frieden-fragen.de/



http://www.unicef.org/…/2013-ABL4-UNICEF_integrated_budget-…












http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Development_Programme



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Insufficient access

to clean water &

poor water management

Insufficient (no) access

to energy & electricity

UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Perspective (UN 2008, 2014)

Facts & Figures – 1: Water, Energy & Nutrition

Insufficient access

to food & starvation

~ 1 bill. people without access to

clean/sufficient water

~ 2.5 bill. people without proper

sanitation

> 2 bill. people with insufficient access

to energy

~ 1 bill. people with no access to

electricity.

~ 0.8 bill. people starving

~ 25% of children in developing countries

are underweight and

may suffer

long-term effects of

undernourishment and

health risks.

Some Grand Challenges of Human Society R. W. Lang (April 11, 2014)

Grand Challenge Lecture Series

Queensland Univ. of Technology/Australia

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Ban Ki-Moon (UN Secretary-General, October 2008)

“… we know what to do. But it requires an unswerving, collective, long-term effort.

… It is now our responsibility to make up lost ground – and

together put all countries firmly on track

towards a more prosperous, sustainable and equitable world.”

John F. Kennedy (35th President of the United States of America, 1961-1963)

“Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel prizes –

one for Peace and one for Science”.

Jean Ziegler (UN Special Correspondent for the Right to Food; born 1934)

“A child, that in our days dies of hunger, is actually being murdered."

Some prominent assessments & options for future development

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CO2 emissions1,5 Forest clearance2,5

CO2 emissions: ~35,000 Mt/a Area: 130,000 km2/a

Volume: 5,200 km3/a

Facts & Figures – 2: CO2 emissions vs. forest clearance vs. plastics waste (numbers worldwide p.a.)

Some Grand Challenges of Human Society R. W. Lang (April 11, 2014)

Grand Challenge Lecture Series

Queensland Univ. of Technology/Australia

Waste weight: 140 Mt/a

Waste volume: < 1 km3/a

Plastics waste3,4,5

1Source: globalcarbonatlas.org 2Source: de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entwaldung 3Own estimates 4Source: worldbank.org; globometer.com 5Source: orf.at

Ocean garbage islands:

1.3 Mio. km2

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Nachhaltige Entwicklung (“Sustainable Development“)

und die Energiewende als ein Kernelement werden

zur Überlebensfrage der menschlichen Zivilisation

und damit zum zivilisatorisch-moralischen Imperativ.

Zentrale Botschaft

Die (unmittelbare) Zukunft der menschlichen Gesellschaft

und damit der Industriegesellschaft heißt


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Energiewende, Nachhaltige Entwicklung und

die Rolle der Kunststoffe

Eine zentrale technologische Herausforderung im Anthropozän

(1) Welche Verknüpfungen und Wechselbeziehungen bestehen zwischen den

Termini im Titel?

Anthropozän – Nachhaltige Entwicklung – Energiewende

(2) Die globale Völkergemeinschaft steht vor den größten Herausforderungen der

Menschheitsgeschichte, mit Veränderungen in den nächsten Jahrzehnten,

die größer sein werden als jene seit Beginn der industriellen Revolution.

(3) Zur Bewältigung dieser Herausforderungen (Grand Global Challenges) bedarf es

einer plausiblen, positiven „Vision & Hoffnung“, aus der jene Kräfte mobilisiert

und gespeist werden können, die für die Konzeption und mutige Implementierung

von Lösungsansätzen erforderlich sind.

Thematischer Rahmen Perspektiven/Botschaften

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Anthropozän Eine neue geochronologische Epoche

Anthropozän (altgriechisch)… Das menschlich [gemachte] Neue.

Entstehungsgeschichte des Begriffs:

1873: Anthropozoische Ära bzw. Anthropozoikum als Bezeichnungen für ein neues

Erdzeitalter. Vorschlag von Antonio Stoppani (italienischer Geologe)

1986: Anthropozoikum als Bezeichnung für den Faunenschnitt und die Verantwortung

des Menschen.

„Natur als Kulturaufgabe“ von Hubert Markl (deutscher Zoologe/Biologe)

ab 2000: Anthropozän (engl. “Anthropocene“) als „Geologie der Menschheit“

(Menschheit ist zu einem geologischen Faktor geworden ist; neue Epoche!).

Paul Crutzen (niederländischer Chemiker/Atmosphärenforscher) und

Eugene F. Stoermer (US Biologe; Erstverwendung des Terms seit ca. 1980)

2008: Geological Society of London; das Holozän (zwischeneiszeitliche Periode mit

stabilen Klimaverhältnissen) ist an sein Ende gelangt und in einen stratigraphischen

Abschnitt eingetreten, für den es in den letzten Millionen Jahren keine Entsprechung gibt.

Source: https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthropoz...

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The Anthropocene & the Great Acceleration

Will Steffen et al.

The trajectory of the Anthropocene:

The Great Acceleration

The Anthropocene Review 1-18 (2015)

The International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Secretary hosted at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Stockholm

The “Anthropocene Trajectory” project was

inspired in 2000 by P. Crutzen (Vice Chair of IGBP)

By tracking and recording the trajectory of the

“human enterprise” by a number of key indicators,

it aims towards providing a more systematic picture

of the human-driven changes to the Earth System.

The Great Acceleration graphs

12 socio-economic indicators

12 earth system indicators

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Reference: adapted from W. Steffen, W. Broadgate, L. Deutsch, O. Gaffney and C. Ludwig (2015), The Trajectory of the

Anthropocene: the Great Acceleration, The Anthropocene Review. Map & Design: Félix Pharand-Deschênes/Globaïa

www.futureearth.org

Dynamics of “Human Enterprise” Indicators The Anthropocene

or “The Great Acceleration“

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A Different Look at Global Challenges (1/2) Surpassing of

Planetary Ecological Limits

The Ecological Compass

highlighting effects of the

current energy system

(rework of an earlier version by

Rockström et al., 2009)

Source: Steffen et al.; Science, Jan. 2015

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Surpassing of

Planetary Ecological Limits

Comparison of ecological impact for various areas of

end consumer consumption in Switzerland (Jungbluth et al., 2011)

A Different Look at Global Challenges (2/2)

(2)

Food & Nutrition

(1)

Housing & Living

(3)

Private Mobility

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Reference: W. Steffen, W. Broadgate, L. Deutsch, O. Gaffney and C. Ludwig (2015), The Trajectory of the Anthropocene: the Great

Acceleration, The Anthropocene Review. Map & Design: Félix Pharand-Deschênes/Globaïa

Dynamics of Key Global Challenges The Anthropocene

or “The Great Acceleration“

Socio-economic trends and the “equity issue”

18 %

42 %

40 %

68 %

18 %

14 %

Most of the earth-system trends are primarily caused by a small fraction of

the world population (in 2010: ~20 % rich cause ~70% of the problems)!

Considering and including historic trends, Pareto’s 80/20 rule may apply:

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Can the current production and

consumption patterns in

industrialized countries be

transferred and expanded to some

10 billion people? 1900 1850 2000 1950 2100 2050

2

4

6

8

10

12

Po

pu

lati

on

(b

ill. people

)

Year

Current population: ~ 7.2 bill.

More developed countries: ~ 1.2 bill.

Less developed countries: ~ 6.0 bill. How to achieve shared prosperity

& inclusive welfare growth for all?

How and how fast can an adequate

standard & high quality of living be

reached, secured and sustained for

the entire global population?

Sustainable Development A new socio-economic paradigm

Key questions: Development of World Population

“Sustainable development” … meets the needs of present generations

without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

Our Common Future (UN-WCED, 1987)

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Region typical structure of population age pyramid

Source: Population Facts No. 2012/4 Dec. 2012 (United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs , Population Division)

ca.

6 bill. ca.

1.2 bill.


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Scheme of Sustainable Development

at the confluence of three constituents

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sustainable_development

Embedded scheme of

Sustainable Development

Source: M. F. Ashby et al.: Materials and Sustainable

Development (Elsevier, 2015)

viable (“realisierbar, machbar”) – bearable (“tragfähig”) –

equitable (“fair, gerecht, angemessen”)

“Sustainable development” … meets the needs of present generations

without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.

Our Common Future (UN-WCED, 1987)


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May/June 2015: Encyclical Letter LAUDATO SI‘ of the Holy Father,

Pope FRANCIS on Care For Our Common Home

http://w2.vatican.va/content/francesco/en/encyclicals/

July 2015: UN Conference in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) “Financing for Development”

Sept. 2015: UN Sustainable Development Summit (New York) to endorse the

Post-2015 Development Agenda

(SDGs 2030 – The World We Want for All)

MY WORLD: The UN survey for a better world

!!! Vote: http://vote.myworld2015.org/ !!!

Nov./Dec. 2015: UN Climate Change Conference (Paris): UNFCCC COP 21

Signals of Hope – The 2015 AGENDA

We might in 2015 have a once in a generation occasion to actually change the music.

Christine Lagarde (IMF, 2015)

on financing the Post-2015 SDG Agenda


http://vote.myworld2015.org/

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UN Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

Anti-poverty targets & indicators:

2000 - 2015

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty & hunger

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower

women

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Goal 5: Improve maternal health

Goal 6: Combat grand diseases & pandemics

(HIV/aids, malaria, etc.)

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Goal 8: Global partnership for development

Key “material” related issues addressed:

Issue 1: Energy, Climate Change

Issue 2: Water and Sanitation, Oceans

Issue 3: Hunger and food security

Issue 4: Sustainable consumption & production

Issue 5: Infrastructure, industrialization

Issue 6: Health

Other issues (alphabetic order):

- Biodiversity, forests, desertification

- Cities

- Economic growth

- Education

- Gender equality &

women’s empowerment

- Inequality &equity

- Partnerships

- Peace and justice

- Poverty

UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

A new sustainable development agenda for 2030

(SDGs 2030: 17 Goals, 169 Targets)

The UN Post-2015 Development Agenda: From MDGs 2015 to SDGs 2030

Materials (polymers) relevant areas

of direct impact to the quality of living:

(1) Energy & Water

(2) Food Security & Nutrition

(3) Housing/Living & Infrastructure

(4) Transport & Mobility

(5) Health & Well-Being

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Oct. 1994: Inaugural Lecture – 1 (University of Leoben, Austria)

R. W. Lang

October 1994

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Role and Perspectives for Polymeric Materials

University of Leoben (A)

(October 1994)

Main Thesis 1: Plastics & Sustainable Development !

Polymeric materials and polymer based technologies offer a tremendous

innovation potential for Sustainable Development,

and polymeric materials will become the prime material class for Sustainable

Development technologies and for satisfying human needs

with the polymer industry becoming a key motor driving this development.

POLYMERIC MATERIALS & POLYMER SCIENCE FOR

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TECHNOLOGIES

Johannes Kepler University Linz (A)

(March 2010)

March 2010: Inaugural Lecture – 2 (JKU Linz)

R. W. Lang,

March 2010

An Academic School

Building Effort (as of 1991) Sustainable Development & Technologies

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Source: IIASA (Laxemburg, A)

A. Grübler and N. Nakicenovic, 1987 ; C. Marchetti and N. Nakicenovic, 1997

F

1-F

wood coal

solfus

nuclear

gas oil

Fraction

The next transformation of the global energy system?

Technology life cycles of primary energy classes (IIASA 1987)

Future

options

& why ?

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Thesis 3: Rationale & Feasibility of an Energy Transition !?

An energy system substantially to fully based on renewable

resources within the next decades

is theoretically and technologically feasible and desirable,

is politically, ecologically, socio-economically and macro-

economically reasonable, and

will serve to reduce the global disparity between developed and

less developed countries.

Oct. 1994: Inaugural Lecture – 1 (University of Leoben, Austria)

R. W. Lang

October 1994

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Role and Perspectives for

Polymeric Materials

University of Leoben (A)

(October 1994)

Thesis 2: Sustainable Development & the Energy System !

The transformation of the current fossil fuel & nuclear based

energy system to an energy system substantially-to-fully based

on renewable resources is at the core of any “true“ sustainable

development scenario.

An Academic School


Thesis 4: Energy Transition and Plastics !?

Polymeric materials offer a tremendous innovation

potential in renewable energy technologies,

and will thus become the prime material class for these

applications

with the polymer industry becoming a key motor driving

this development.

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Improved energy & product

services driven by

more efficiency,

more (systems)intelligence

less energy, less material

use of regenerative

resources

The key is innovation !

Substitution of matter/energy

by more intelligent solutions

!!!

Improved Performance

Our Common Future (UN-WCED, 1987):

“Sustainable development” … meets the needs of

present generations without compromising the ability

of future generations to meet their own needs.

R. W .Lang, Inaugural Lectures 1994 and 2010

(refined 2014)

An Academic School


How to translate the

inter-generational, equity-oriented

global prosperity requirement for a

growing population

under the planetary constraints to

technologies & materials ?

Guiding Principle:

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R.W.Lang, Inaugural Lectures 1994 and 2009 (refined 2014)

An Academic School

Building Effort (as of 1991)

R.W.Lang and G.M.Wallner, 5th Int. Materials Education

Symposium; April 4-5, 2013; Univ. of Cambridge (UK)

Sustainable Development & Technologies

‘Sustainable Development & Technologies/Materials’

is primarily about performance enhancement and

improved product services.

It is therefore driven by innovation,

aiming at more systems intelligence and more efficiency,

less energy and less material use

while simultaneously increasing the utilization of

regenerative resources.

In a most general sense,

it is the substitution of matter & energy by mind

(i.e., intelligence, knowledge, attitude.& consciousness).

Our Common Future (UN-WCED, 1987):

“Sustainable development” … meets the needs of

present generations without compromising the ability

of future generations to meet their own needs.

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There is a huge potential for technological innovations in the field of

renewable energies affecting the cost/performance-ratio.

The key is, “efficiency“ first!

Thesis 4: Energy Transition and Plastics

Polymeric materials (plastics, elastomers, composites, hybrids) offer a tremendous

innovation potential in renewable energy technologies,

and will thus become the prime material class for these applications


To Thesis 4: Energy Transition and Plastics

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Source: “The Contribution of Plastic Products to Resource Efficiency“

H. Pilz, B. Brandt and R. Fehringer, denkstatt GmbH, Vienna, 2010) (Study commissioned by PlasticsEurope)

Ecological Assessment: Energy Efficiency and GHG Emissions

Hypothetic replacement of plastics products by next-best alternative material

Effects on “product mass”, “energy consumption” and “CO2 emissions” (Europe 2009)

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© Graz Energy Agency - For requests: [email protected]

Negative Mitigation Cost!

Source: McKinsey/Vattenfall, 2007

Global CO2 Mitigation Cost Curve 2030 (beyond business-as-usual, 2007)

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Solar Heating Potential

Comparison of Building Standards

0

200

400

600

800

LE building

Passive-h.

Current

buildings

Heating

demand

Global irradiation on

building surface

(Central Europe)

Oct. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov.

kWh

d

Energy Efficiency & Solar Space Heating of Buildings

Source:

Adapted from FhG-ISE,

Freiburg (D)

Two basic principles

(1) Energy efficiency:

Reduction of the energy

intensity per service unit

(factor 4+)

(2) Renewable energy:

Energy supply by optimized

mix of renewable resources

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“Energy autonomous solar building Freiburg“

(Freiburg, D; 1992)

Ultra-low energy solar country house

(Graz, A; 1998)

First Generation Solar Buildings

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t - Solar transmittance

L - Heat loss coefficient

Solar radiation

Heat gain

20 °C

Wall

-10 °C

TI

Optical requirements Functional principle

0 1 2 20 40 600.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Transmittance

CA 50µm

Thermal

rad. (20 °C)Solar

radiation

rel. in

ten

sit

y,

tran

sm

itta

nce

wave length [µm]

Solar Energy Research Transparent Insulation (TI)

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0.00 0.01 0.02

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2R=0.991

5 m% VAC

Polar ethylene copolymers

30 m% VAC

PMMA

PC

PET

CA

d=50µm

infr

are

d o

pti

cal

thic

kn

ess,

IR*d

concentration cC-O-C

, mol/cm3

Structure-property correlations

Transparent Insulation – Thermal properties


G.M. Wallner, W. Platzer, R.W. Lang (2005). Solar Energy, 79, 593-602.

G. Oreski, G.M. Wallner (2006). Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells, 90, 1208-1219.

Cellulose triacetate (CTA)

n

O

H

OR

H

CH2OR

H

OR

H HO

CH2OR

H

OR

OR

H H

HH

O

O

0 1000 2000 3000 40000.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Wärmestrahlung

20°C

Deformationsschw. / gekoppelte Schw.

Si-O-Si

C-O-C

C-F

(OC)2NC

>SO2

C=C- (Ar)

C=O

O-H

C-H

rel.

En

erg

ied

ich

te

Wellenzahl, cm-1

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Performance improvement by

systematic development and optimization of transparent insulation system


0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

y = -0.433 x + 0.786

R 2 = 0.993

eq

uiv

ale

nt

U-v

alu

e, W

/ ( m

2 K

)

degree-day related irradiation, Wd/ ( m 2

Kd )

4-weeks evaluation

2002/03

2003/04

World best

efficiency !

Wallner et al., Sol. Energy Mat. & Sol.

Cells, 2004

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

y = -0.433 x + 0.786

R 2 = 0.993

eq

uiv

ale

nt

U-v

alu

e, W

/ ( m

2 K

)

degree-day related irradiation, Wd/ ( m 2

Kd )

4-weeks evaluation

2002/03

2003/04

World best

efficiency !


Cells, 2004

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 -6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

y = -0.433 x + 0.786

R 2 = 0.993

eq

uiv

ale

nt

U-v

alu

e, W

/(m

²K)

degree-day related irradiation, Wd/(m²Kd)

4-weeks evaluation

2002/03

2003/04

World best

efficiency !


Cells, 2004

Improved energy services:

more systems intelligence

and more efficiency

less energy and material

utilization of renewable

resources

G.M. Wallner, R.W. Lang,

H. Schobermayr, H. Hegedys, R. Hausner (2004). Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells, 84/1-4, 441-457.

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Scattering domains

d = 0,5 – 1 µm

20 30 40 50 60 7075

80

85

90

hemispheric

thermotropic layer

tra

ns

mit

tan

ce

, %

Temperature, °C

additive

sp

ec

. d

H/d

t

2 W

/g

Solar Energy Research Thermotropic Polymer Films

Phase change and solar transmission

K. Resch, Dissertation (2008)

K. Resch, G.M. Wallner, R.W. Lang (2008). Macromol. Symp., 265, 49-60.

K. Resch, G.M. Wallner, R. Hausner (2009). Solar Energy, 83, 1689-1697.

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Fresh air

pre-heating with

buried PE pipes

High efficiency

air/air-heat exchanger

From -20 °C outside

to +17°C incoming

fresh air !

Nearly All-Plastics Compact Fresh-Air-System

Fa.Paul, D

Energy Efficiency of Buildings Comfort Service “Fresh Air”

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Global Solar Monitoring: A new energy system is emerging!

Renewable Energies: New and Strong Signals for Optimism

Summary of major learnings:

Changes in recent years in renewable energy markets,

investments, industries, and policies have been so

rapid and so dramatic, that common perception of the

status quo may lag years behind.

2010 – 2020 may be considered the “tipping period“

for renewable energies in the context of global energy

supply.

Source: RENEWABLES 2010 GLOBAL STATUS REPORT

(07/2010); http://www.ren21.net/globalstatusreport

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POLYMERIC MATERIALS & POLYMER SCIENCE FOR

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT TECHNOLOGIES

Johannes Kepler University Linz (A)

(March 2010)

Main message to the polymer

industry & research community:

It is time to enter the field with

determination & commitment!

March 2010: Inaugural Lecture – 2 (JKU Linz)

R. W. Lang,

March 2010

Status 2010: Plastics, Sustainable Development & Energy Transition

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The Transformation of the Energy System Energy Transition

Source: RENEWABLES GLOBAL STATUS REPORT (06/2015)

http://www.ren21.net.

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Solarthermal – Total Global Capacity (2004 -2014)




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Photovoltaics – Total Global Capacity (2004 – 2014)




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Wind Power – Total Global Capacity (2004 – 2014)




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Global Renewables Capacity in Operation (2014)


Data Source: SOLAR HEAT WORLDWIDE – 2015 Edition

http://www.iea-shc.org

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– Why – rationale and reasoning? (Thesis 2)

– Is a near-full transition of the energy system within the next decades

feasible & realistic? (Thesis 3)

– How can such an energy transition be achieved?

What are some of the main prerequisites?

– Why polymeric materials will need to take an important role?

(Thesis 4)

Energiewende (Energy Transition) Outline

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Source: IIASA (Laxemburg, A)


F

1-F

wood coal

solfus

nuclear

gas oil

Fraction



Future

options

& why ?

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Transformation of the Energy System – Why? Rationale & Reasons

Problem driven views and motivations:

Physical, technological, geo-political, economical & ecological limitations in the availability

of fossil hydrocarbons, in particular of crude oil (uncertainties in reserves, geopolitics, etc.)

Global efforts for a carbon-constraint economy due to the threats of climate change

(Kyoto protocol, Copenhagen Accord, Cancun Agreement, IPCC, etc.)

Innovation & market driven views and considerations:

Huge potential for efficiency technologies in the energy transformation chain from primary

to service energy

Renewable energy, in particular solar energy, is abundantly available

Record market growth for the renewable energy industry increasingly capturing investors

attention

Renewable Energy policies: Increasing number of states/countries with policy targets for

renewable energy supporting market penetration

(e.g., EU 2020/2050 targets)

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Source: Dennis Meadows; Lecture at Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO),

Vienna/Austria (Sept. 9, 2014); Providing Social Welfare in an Era Without Growth


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Global equal emissions criterion for CO2 emissions from fossil fuels1

assuming climate stabilization at 2 °C for ~18 Gt/a worldwide2

Conclusio

Based on 2005

per-capita emissions in

developed countries:

Reduction by

85 % 0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

developed

countries

less

developed

countries

all

countries

(2050) ???

Long-term scenario

(2050)

“climate stabilization"

Annual per capita CO2 emissions (t/Person), 2005

least

developed

countries

12

3

0,8 1.8


Anthropogenic greenhouse emissions & the threat of climate change ?

1 Calculation performed in 2006 2 Stern Report, 2006

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to service energy



attention



(e.g., EU 2020/2050 targets)

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Primary

energy

Bio mass

Cycle time:

up to max. ~100 years

Oil

Gas

Coal

H2O,

CO2

hn

Refinery

Power plant

Living

Mobility

Fossilization

Photo-

synthesis hn

Improved energy services by

more efficiency,

more (systems)intelligence

less energy, less material

use of regenerative

resources

Useful energy

The “regenerative energy cycle"

Current vs. Future Energy Technologies (schematically)

"The innovation challenge"

Cycle time:

millions of years (108 years)

The “fossil energy cycle"

Substitution of matter/energy

intensity by

intelligence (mind) !!!

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Solar energy is abundantly available

Source:

C. Rubbia (CERN/CH; 2004)

Surface Area for CSP:

190 x 190 km² (36,000 km2)

Agricultural area: ~107 km2

36.000 TWh/a projected electricity

demand 2050 worldwide

The Renewable Energy Potential An Example: Solar Energy

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World capacity: 406 GWth

Av. growth rate: 14 % p.a.

(2013/past 5 years)

Solar collectors (hot water/heat/cooling)

Solar PV (grid connected)

Wind power (electricity all size scales)

Isovolta, A

Solarnor, NOR

Renewable energy market potential for polymeric materials: Facts & Figures

World capacity: 177 GWel


(2013/past 5 years)

World capacity: 370 GWel


(2013/past 5 years)

The Renewable Energy Potential Capacity & Growth Rates

Data Source: SOLAR HEAT WORLDWIDE – 2015 Edition

http://www.iea-shc.org

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F

1-F

wood coal

solfus

nuclear

gas oil

Fraction Renewable energies ?

A strong Focus on Plastics for Solar Technologies – Why?

?

Source: adapted from IIASA (Laxemburg, A)


Key questions:

How to sustain

the high

growth rates?

Can it

be done?

X 10 %

end energy in 2014

Technology life cycles of primary energy classes (IIASA 1987 vs. status 2014)

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Nuclear Energy: Facts & Figures (worldwide)

Data Source: WORLD NUCLEAR INDUSTRY STATUS REPORT 2015

by Mycle Schneider et al. (07/2015)

Energy Transition: Nuclear Energy – An Industry in Decline

Peak status (year)

Status

2014 Change

Number of operating reactors

(excl. LTO) 438 (2002) 391 - 10.7 %

Total capacity (GW) 368 (2010) 337 - 8.4 %

Annual electricity generation

(TWh) 2.660 (2006) 2.410 - 9.4 %

Share in the power mix 17.6 % (1996) 10.8 % - 6.8 %

Share in primary energy mix - 4.4 %

Unit-weighted average age 28.8 years

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Nuclear Energy: Aging of existing nuclear power plants & consequences ?

The future contribution of

nuclear energy depends more

on the existing nuclear plants

and their service age

distribution than on new

constructed plants.

Status 04/2011 (worldwide):

Plants in operation: 437

Average age: 26 years

Plants shut down: 130

Average age : 22 years !

A simple calculation for the “hypothetical” construction of new plants (worldwide):

Assumptions: keeping current capacity level constant; limitation of lifetime with 40 years

To 2015: every 3 month !!! 2015–2025: every 3 weeks !!!

Source: WORLD NUCLEAR INDUSTRY REPORT (04/2011)

commented by Prof. S. Schleicher (WIFO; 05/2011)


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Status 2011 (worldwide):

The net-capacity added for

electricity from nuclear power

was surpassed from wind

power since 1997 and from PV

since 2006 !

Cost comparison for new

plants/capacity:

Meanwhile both, wind power

and PV, exhibit favorable costs

compared to nuclear power !?

Historic crossover of costs around 2010

Source: WORLD NUCLEAR INDUSTRY REPORT (04/2011)

commented by Prof. S. Schleicher (WIFO; 05/2011)

?

Nuclear Energy vs. Photovoltaics (PV): Cost development


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Why nuclear power isn’t the answer to climate change 7 reasons & arguments by Mark Diesendorf (May 22, 2015)

https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/05/why-nuclear-power-isnt-the-answer-to-climate-change/

(1) Status: insignificant energy share (2.6% final energy share)

(2) GHG emissions: currently 60 g CO2/kWh (in a few decades 131 g CO2/kWh); compared to 10-20 g CO2/kWh for wind and 500-600 g CO2/kWh for gas

(3) Accident risks: Chernobyl (1986), Fukushima (2011); no adequate risk insurance

(4) Economics: doubtful, whether any nuclear power plant has ever been built without

huge subsidies (e.g. Hinkley Point C)

(5) Nuclear waste: safeguarding needed for more than 100,000+ years???

(6) Weapons proliferation: India, Pakistan, North Korea, and South Africa have all used

civil nuclear energy to help build their nuclear weapons

(7) Next generation reactors: all far from commercially available and all likely to be even

more expensive than conventional reactors




















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F

1-F

wood coal

solfus

nuclear

gas oil


A strong Focus on Plastics for Solar Technologies – Why?

?



Key questions:

How to sustain

the high

growth rates?

Can it

be done?

Which (fossil) bridge?

X 10 % in 2013

X


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New growth potential through proper feed-in tariffs

and electricity cost development ? (Germany, since 2000)

Source: Ch. Wittwer (Fraunhofer ISE, Freiburg/D); 10/2014


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Broad existing performance profile (and still high innovation potential)

- wide range of properties (multi-functional & tailor-makeable)

- high design flexibility, excellent processability, multi-function integration capability

High economic competitiveness and superior ecological & energetic efficiency

compared to other material classes

The proven extraordinary growth capability !!!

The key role of polymer technologies: 3 main reasons (i.e., proven success factors)

Thesis 4: Energy Transition and Plastics

Polymeric materials (plastics, elastomers, composites, hybrids) offer a tremendous

innovation potential in renewable energy technologies,

and will thus become the prime material class for these applications



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Development of Plastics & Steel Worldwide (annual production of plastics and steel since 1950 in terms of volume)

Source: Plastics Europe D (2008); own adaptation 2015

Plastics exhibit a proven high growth rate capability!

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Medical devices

Mobility & transport (3)

Information,

telecommunication

Packaging (1) (incl. goods traffic & logistics)

Electrical engineering, electronics,

precision mechanics, mechatronics)

Linsenhalter DVD-Player

Infrastructure,

buildings & construction (2) BMW i3

3 mm

Boeing 787

Simplon

Sports & leisure

Plastics are pervade all aspects of life Applications & Markets

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Mobility & transport (3) Packaging (1)

(incl. goods transport & logistics)

Infrastructure,

buildings & construction (2) BMW i3

Boeing 787

Plastics are pervade all aspects of life Applications & Markets

Comparison of ecological impact

for various areas of

end consumer consumption

in Switzerland

(Jungbluth et al., 2011)

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Market penetration of polymer technologies

The 4 main prerequisites for

broad market acceptance:

improved performance

(functionality)

enhanced cost effectiveness

guaranteed quality and

durability

attractive/multifunctional

design

What needs to be done to accelerate

innovation & market penetration?

Polymeric materials as innovation driver for solar technologies

?


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May/June 2015: Encyclical Letter LAUDATO SI‘ of the Holy Father,

Pope FRANCIS on Care For Our Common Home


July 2015: UN Conference in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) “Financing for Development”

Sept. 2015: UN Sustainable Development Summit (New York) to endorse the

Post-2015 Development Agenda

(SDGs 2030 – The World We Want for All)

MY WORLD: The UN survey for a better world

!!! Vote: http://vote.myworld2015.org/ !!!

Nov./Dec. 2015: UN Climate Change Conference (Paris): UNFCCC COP 21

The 2015 AGENDA – Signals of Hope





http://vote.myworld2015.org/

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“From Billions to Trillions” in development aid! UN Conference in Addis Ababa (Ethiopia) “Financing for Development” (July 2015)

Financing Sustainable Development & Energy Transition

Post-tax energy subsidies are dramatically higher

than previously estimated and

projected to reach $5.3 trillion

(6.5 percent of global GDP) in 2015.

Fossil fuel subsidies & hidden costs worldwide

(IMF WP/15/2015)




Fossil-fuel consumption subsidies worldwide amounted

to $548 billion in 2013 … subsidies to oil products

(~50% of total) were over four-times the subsidies to

renewable energy.

Direct energy subsidies worldwide (IEA-WEO 2015)

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to service energy



attention



(e.g., EU 2020/2050 targets)

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Transformation of the Energy System Policy Landscape

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C. Marchetti and N. Nakicenovic, 1997; A. Grübler and N. Nakicenovic, 1987

F

1-F

wood coal

solfus

nuclear

gas oil


10 % in 2010

Which (fossil) bridge?

X

Technology life cycles of primary energy classes (IIASA 1987, adapted by rwl)

The Transformation of the Energy System Development & Democracy

Facts & Figures – 22: Europe 2013

The 5. year in succession there was more power capacity added from renewable energies than from all other

power technologies

72% of the 2013 new added power capacity (35 GW) are by renewable energies (25 GW)

The net addition is nearly 100 % renewable energies!

Facts & Figures – 11: Germany 2013

Citizens are clear market leader in renewable energies

Nearly 50% of renewable electricity comes directly from citizens (investments of 5 bill. EURO 2012)

Only ~3% PV und ~10% windpower is provided by the large energy enterprises

1Source: www.energie-bau.at/index.php/strom-steuerung/energie-wende-der-souveraen-macht-sich-bemerkbar/menu-id-37.html

2Source: www.energie-bau.at/index.php/strom-steuerung/neue-kraftwerke-in-europa-72-mit-erneuerbarer-energie/menu-id-37.html 3Source: RENEWABLES 2014 - GLOBAL STATUS REPORT (06/2014)

Facts & Figures – 33: World 2013

Global renewable energy generation capacity jumps to record level

Developing World’s policy support: Now 95 emerging economies nurture renewable energy growth through

supportive policies, up six-fold from just 15 countries in 2005 (total number of countries 2013: 144).

Growing numbers of cities, states, and regions seek to transition to 100% renewable energy in either

individual sectors or economy-wide.

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Energiewende, Nachhaltige Entwicklung und

die Rolle der Kunststoffe

Eine zentrale technologische Herausforderung im Anthropozän

(1) Welche Verknüpfungen und Wechselbeziehungen bestehen zwischen den

Termini im Titel?

Anthropozän – Nachhaltige Entwicklung – Energiewende

(2) Die globale Völkergemeinschaft steht vor den größten Herausforderungen der

Menschheitsgeschichte, mit Veränderungen in den nächsten Jahrzehnten,

die größer sein werden als jene seit Beginn der industriellen Revolution.

(3) Zur Bewältigung dieser Herausforderungen (Grand Global Challenges) bedarf es

einer plausiblen, positiven „Vision & Hoffnung“, aus der jene Kräfte mobilisiert

und gespeist werden können, die für die Konzeption und mutige Implementierung

von Lösungsansätzen erforderlich sind.

Thematischer Rahmen Perspektiven/Botschaften

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A brief survey at the start/mid-term/end(1) of the lecture series:

Polymeric Materials & Sustainable Development

UoB Summer School:

July 06/07/08, 2015(1)

Total number of students: 21

(highly mixed international students, mostly BSc)

Some questions on future perspectives More

optimistic (1)

*/**/***

Who is optimistic/pessimistic about your personal future? 20/-/20

Who is optimistic/pessimistic about the future of Europe? 5/5/14

Who is optimistic/pessimistic about the future of your

generation (global, next 50 years)? 10/2/15

Who is optimistic/pessimistic about the future of human

civilization (global, i.e., centuries/millennia)? 8/8/10

Future Perspectives: Where are we heading?

(1)Timeline of survey: */**/** (July 06/07/08, 2015)

* Start of lecture series: right at the beginning prior to any teaching (July 06, 2015)

** Mid-term of lecture series: after covering topics of the Great Global Challenges (July 07, 2015)

*** End of lecture series: after covering future perspectives in terms of “Sustainable Development” (July 08, 2015)

Lecture Series by

R. W. Lang (2015)

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und die Energiewende als ein Kernelement werden

zur Überlebensfrage der menschlichen Zivilisation

und damit zum zivilisatorisch-moralischen Imperativ.

Die (unmittelbare) Zukunft der menschlichen Gesellschaft

und damit der Industriegesellschaft heißt


Der Mensch ist auf Sinn und Wert hin orientiert.

Er ist dann ganz Mensch, wenn er eine Sache zu der seinen macht.

Viktor Emil Frankl (1905-1997)

Nützen wir gemeinsam die Möglichkeiten !!!

Zentrale Botschaft und zugleich Auftrag

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