Energy savings potential assessment in Turkey · To monitor and evaluate energy efficiency trends,...
Transcript of Energy savings potential assessment in Turkey · To monitor and evaluate energy efficiency trends,...
French Agency for Environment & Energy Management
Dutch Agency for Innovation & Sustainable Development
General Directorate for Energy ResourcesSurveys & Development Administration
Energy savings potential Energy savings potential assessment in Turkeyassessment in Turkey
Dr Didier BOSSEBOEUF Dr Didier BOSSEBOEUF (ADEME)(ADEME)
Erol YALErol YALÇÇIN, Ersoy METIN, Ersoy METİİN N (E(EİİE)E)
OUTLINE
OBJECTIVES : why do we need an energy saving potential potential assessment?
METHODOLOGIESEnergy efficiency indicatorsSurveys on energy consumption and technologiesThe MED-PRO model : a summary description
RESULTSEnergy efficiency trends in TurkeyThe alternative scenario to 2030
CONCLUSION
MAIN OBJECTIVESMAIN OBJECTIVES
To monitor and evaluate energy efficiency trends, energy savings potential and performed a energy demand forecast at detailed levels by end- uses sectors (industry, building, transport etc.) through the use of appropriate methodologies
To enhance the domestic capacity building for developing, carrying out, interpretating and disseminating the monitoring of energy efficiency
DEFINITION OF ENERGY SAVING DEFINITION OF ENERGY SAVING POTENTIALPOTENTIAL
Estimate of the additional energy saving stock (reserves) realizable for a given periodTechnical versus economic potential (exploitation rate)Static or dynamic potentialThe adoption of efficient technologies or practices decrease the potential, the R&D increases it as well the economic growth
WHY DO WE NEED AN ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT?
For target settingFor action plan and policies designFor monitoring energy efficiency
HOW CAN WE ASSESS HOW CAN WE ASSESS THE ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL ?THE ENERGY SAVING POTENTIAL ?
Three main methodologies ; Benchmarking through energy efficiency indicators (macro analysis) at sectoral and end-uses levelTechnologies characterization and penetration relying on field surveys and audits (micro analysis) Comparison between a reference scenario and a scenario with EE measure using techno-economic modelling (MEDPRO)
These 3 methods are chained and should be coherentThey are based on a similar basic methodological framework called «bottom-up or techno-economic approach »
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TECHNOTECHNO--ECONOMIC DATA BASEECONOMIC DATA BASE
These 3 mains steps are chained through the data collection and the interpretation of the results
Development of an energy demand techno-economic data base
IN INDUSTRY, THE BEST WORLD PRACTICES IN INDUSTRY, THE BEST WORLD PRACTICES ARE NO LONGER FOUND IN THE MOST ARE NO LONGER FOUND IN THE MOST DEVELOPED COUNTRIES DEVELOPED COUNTRIES
Average energy consumption per ton of steel (2004)
USA
BrazilRussia
EU
Egypt
Japan
Thailand
ChinaIndia
Taiwan Mexico
Turkey
Korea
Ukraine
AustraliaArgentina
Canada
South Africa
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
% electric steel
toe/
t
World benchmarkDistance to benchmark: energy savings potential
Comparison should be made at similar process mix
Source: Enerdata
COMPARISON OF SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION IN COMPARISON OF SPECIFIC CONSUMPTION IN CEMENT INDUSTRY BY BENCHMARKINGCEMENT INDUSTRY BY BENCHMARKING
3,92
3,57
3,48
4,39
3,58
3,99
0,00
3,61
4,23
4,11
3,57 3,
844,
353,
883,
92 4,03
0,00
3,89
4,48
4,34
3,90 4,
223,
784,
594,
013,
58 3,66
0,00
3,86
4,30
3,92
0,00
3,66 3,78
0,00
3,48 3,53 3,66
0,00
0,00
6,00
Ç1
Ç2
Ç3
Ç4
Ç5
Ç6
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Ç12
Ç13
Ç14
Ç15
Ç16
Ç17
Ç18
Ç19
Ç20
Ç21
Ç22
Ç23
Ç24
Ç25
Ç26
Ç27
Ç28
Ç29
Ç30
Ç31
Ç32
Ç33
Ç34
Ç35
Ç36
Ç37
Ç38
Ç39
GJ/
ton
cem
ent
3,83
Energy Saving Potential
THE POTENTIAL CAN BE ESTIMATED THE POTENTIAL CAN BE ESTIMATED IN COMPARING SCENARIOSIN COMPARING SCENARIOS
Impacts of energy savings on final energy consumption
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2005 2013 2020 2030
M to
e
Reference scenario Energy efficiency scenario
1. The benchmark approach 1. The benchmark approach through the use of indicatorsthrough the use of indicators
ENERGY EFFICIENCY INDICATORSENERGY EFFICIENCY INDICATORS
-- PURPOSEPURPOSE--
to monitor the targets determined at national and to monitor the targets determined at national and internationalinternationalto evaluate the energy efficiency programsto evaluate the energy efficiency programsto make action plansto make action plansto provide data for Modelsto provide data for ModelsInternational comparison International comparison
50 EE and C02 indicators 50 EE and C02 indicators Approximately 750 time series in the data bank
ENERGY EFFICIENCY INDICATORS ENERGY EFFICIENCY INDICATORS
Energy/ CO2 intensities, that relate the energy used in the economy or a sector to macro-economic variables (GDP, value added, …)Unit consumption and emission, that relate the energy consumption to activity or equipment)Adjusted intensities to allow the comparison of indicators (adjustments for differences in climate, general price level with power purchasing parities, fuel mix, industry and economic structure…)Benchmark unit consumption to compare each country with reference values (best country values within the EU, best 3 values, best plant, most efficient buildings )Energy efficiency indices (ODEX indicators) /energy savings by sector and for the whole economy
VARIATION OF PRIMARY AND FINAL ENERGY INTENSITIES IN EU-15 COUNTRİES (1990-2004)
Decreasing energy intensities
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
%/y
ear
Net
h erl
ands
EU
15
Bel
gium
Ger
man
y
UK
Swed
en
Fran
ce
Gre
ece
Ital
y
Spai
n
Tur
key
primary final
Primary intensity decreases more than final intensity (or increase less ) reduction of losses in energy transformations
at normal climate
COMPARISON OF UNIT ENERGY CONSUMPTION FOR CLINKER : TURKEY VERSUS EU (2004)
00.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.09
0.10.110.12
Turk
ey(a
vera
ge)
Turk
ey(b
est
prac
tice) UK
Por
tuga
l
Bel
gium
Fran
ce
Ger
man
y
Italy
toe/
ton
Turkey (average) Turkey (best practice) UKPortugal Belgium FranceGermany Italy
World best world practice
UNIT CONSUMPTION PER HOUSEHOLD
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
toe/
dwel
ling
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
kWh/
dwel
ling
total total (normal climate) heating (normal climate) electricity
UNIT ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION PER HOUSEHOLD FOR ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND LIGHTING
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Tur
key
Ger
man
y
Italy
Fra
nce
EU
-15
Spa
in
Gre
ece
UK
kWh/
dwel
ling
1990 2004
UNIT CONSUMPTION PER EMPLOYEE IN SERVICE SECTOR
0,0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
toe/
em
ploy
ee
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
kWh/
empl
oyee
totalelectricity
2. The micro2. The micro--economic approach economic approach using on using on -- field surveys and field surveys and audits audits
THE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURVEY FOR HOUSEHOLD
Adapted questionnaire (Survey for 500 on-site visits in dwelling with measurements in 4 cities will be done).
Energy consumption for households and transport by fuels,end-uses and appliances
Thermal performances of the envelop (level of insulations penetration of double glazing, windows to wall ratio etc.)
SURVEYS IN INDUSTRY
Questionaire design, post-mailing and internet, data checking and first analysis to determine the energy savings potential in the sugar (32), glass (9), textile and paper (37) industries.
On-site visits aiming at : characterising the technologies (age, performance, maintenance, monitoring etc), assessing the penetration rate and the investment strategy in 3 textile companies and 2 paper companies.
3. Comparison of long term energy Comparison of long term energy demand scenarios using demand scenarios using technicotechnico--economic modelling.economic modelling.
MED MED -- PROPRO
A decision-supporting tool to address medium and long term energy planning issues and related energy efficiency and GHG mitigation issues
Sectoral/end-use model, for energy demand, load forecast and green house gases
Relevant for impact evaluation of energy efficiency and CO2 abatement strategies and measures
MEDMED--PRO: a summary descriptionPRO: a summary description
The goal of the project is to deliver methodology and tools to analyse energy policy issues.
Preliminary outputs of the model built with expert from EIE and ENERDATA.
Further work has to be done by EIE in coordination with an enlarged community of Turkish experts.
INSTITUTIONS MADE COOPERATION INSTITUTIONS MADE COOPERATION WITH DURING PROJECTWITH DURING PROJECT
MENRSPOTURKSTATTEDASDG of PETROLEUM AFFAIRSDG of HIGHWAYSTCDDTURKISH HARDCOAL INSTITUTIONSBOTASIRON-STEEL PRODUCER ASSOCIATIONTURKISH CEMENT MANUFACTURERS ASSOCIATION PULP AND PAPER PRODUCER ASSOCIATIONTURKISH SISECAM FACTORIES
MEDMED--PRO DATA REQUIREMENTSPRO DATA REQUIREMENTS
Energy balances and sectoral energy consumption accounts
Indicators for socio-economic needs and production activities are part of usual statistics
Data on specific energy requirements are in technical documentation or provided by surveys
MAIN DRIVERSMAIN DRIVERS
GDPPopulationProduction in industriesBuildings constructionBehaviours (heating, etc.)Trends in transport
In the framework of the Twinning project, European experts have complemented the set of socio economic indicators, in consistency with observations and experience gained in works done in similar countries.
REFERENCE SCENARIO
Projections for 2013, 2020, 2030Final consumption : x 3.8Transport, comm. sector : main driversGas and electricity : growing demandEnergy demand = 2 toe/capitaCO2 emissions : from 0.7 to 2.3 tC/capitaDrivers : welfare and economic growth
REFERENCE SCENARIO
MAIN ASSUMPTIONS:GDP & Population
0
200
400
600
800
2000 2005 2013 2020 2030
GDP
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
mill
ions
inh.
GDP (GTL2000) Population
TRENDS : FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
020406080
100120140160180200
2000 2005 2013 2020 2030
Mto
e
Industry Residential Tertiairy Transport Other
CO2 EMISSIONS (Excl. Elec. Prod.)
- 50.00
100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 300.00 350.00 400.00 450.00
2000 2005 2013 2020 2030
MtC
O2
Industry Households Com. Sector Transport
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO: ENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIALSENERGY EFFICIENCY POTENTIALS
Industry:Benchmarking with Turkish plantsBest practices in Europe
Buildings:2000 building codes
70 kWh/m2 as unit consumption target40% of existing buildings to be retrofitted
Progress in electrical appliances (EU targets)
Transport:technological progress (EU targets for road vehicles)
COMPARISON BETWEEN TWO SCENARIOS
Impacts of energy savings on final energy consumption
0
50
100
150
200
2000 2005 2013 2020 2030
M to
e
Reference scenario Energy efficiency scenario
TRENDS : SUB-SECTORS ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Energy consumption in industry (by sector)
0.02.04.06.08.0
10.012.014.0
2000 2005 2013 2020 2030
Mto
e
food textýle chemýcals metal-eqpt mýnerals paper-pulp
TRENDS : SUB-SECTORS ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Energy consumption in households (by sector)
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2000 2005 2013 2020 2030
Mto
e
Space heating Hot water Cooking Elec specif., air cond
DIFFICULTIESDIFFICULTIESMedMed--ProPro
Energy statistics to be improved:Transport: stock of vehicles, consistency with en. balanceBuildings: stock of building, specific energy consumption, commercial buildings.
EE policies impact assessment to be improved:List of actions per sector (including non techn.)Assessment of EE potentials and costsUsing model (such as MEDPRO) gives a comprehensive view
DIFFICULTIESDIFFICULTIES
--DATADATA-- IndustryIndustry
Constant price and VAD not available. Numbers calculated from production index given by TURKSTAT.
Some production indexes not available according to NACE standard in sub-sectors have been combined.
Fuel consumption in sub-sectors has been estimated for some years, and when inconsistency of General Energy Balance Table other sources are used
MAIN OUTPUTS
Detailed database (1990 – 2004 ) ongoing for 2005-2006
First comprehensive report on energy efficiency trends in Turkey
Questionaire to assess energy saving potential
Alternative energy efficiency scenario through modelling
CONCLUSIONS
Providing of methodologies and tools
Training of experts
Sharing of assumptions and expertise
Take advantage of this capacity building