HErZ TB4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics · HErZ TB4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics...

HErZ TB4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Retrospective Analysis of Regional Climate Christian Ohlwein, Petra Friederichs, Andreas Hense, Ieda Pscheidt, Christoph Wosnitza, David Willms Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Bonn Susanne Crewell, Stefan Kneifel, Stephanie Redl, Sandra Steinke Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Jan Keller Deutscher Wetterdienst http://www.herz.uni-bonn.de/

Evalua&on of the Hans-‐Ertel-‐Centre for Weather Research 19 November 2012, DWD, Offenbach

2 HErZ TB4 – Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics

1)  Research Objectives

2)  Project Status

3)  Scientific Highlights

4)  Establishment of the Branch

5)  Summary and Outlook

Outline







Outline


Funding guideline

è  Perform a retrospective and future-oriented analysis of regional climate for the coupled system of atmosphere, ocean, and land surface

è  Perform process-oriented climate monitoring with optimised monitoring networks including its synergetic use

è  Incorporate satellite data

Topic 4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics


Objectives

è  Provide a high resolution regional reanalysis for Europe and Germany

è  Develop methods for the assimilation of rain gauge measurements

è  Incorporate satellite and GOP data for verification

è  Provide diagnostics of the energy, water, and momentum cycles

Topic 4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics


WP1: Regional reanalysis

WP3: Satellite and GOP data

WP2: Assimilation of precipitation data

WP4: Reforecasts

WP5: Verification and data publication

Team and Work Packages








Outline

Project Status

WP1: Regional reanalysis

WP2: Assimilation of precipitation

WP3: Satellite- and GOP data

WP4: Reforecasts

WP5: Verification and data publication


2011 2012 2013 2014





§  Regional reanalysis

§  Assimilation of precipitation

§  Microwave forward operator

§  Verification



Outline

WP1 - Regional Reanalysis

è  Provide regional reanalysis data for Germany §  5 years (30 years)

§  Based on the operational NWP system

§  COSMO-EU originally as dynamical downscaling

è  Implementation

§  Technically more complicated

§  Reanalysis ≠ operational analysis §  More effort had to be made to set up the system

§  European domain now as a full reanalysis


§  Continuous nudging §  SST analysis (daily) §  Snow analysis (6-hourly)

COSMO-CORDEX (6.2 km)

§  Soil moisture analysis (SMA, daily)



ERA-Interim (T255)

COSMO-DE (2.8 km)

§  Latent heat nudging (LHN)


è  Current state §  System is set up and running at ECMWF §  Reanalysis production for over 2 weeks

§  1 year CORDEX reanalysis will be finished by mid-december (milestone)

§  14 month (12 + 2 month spin-up period)

§  Available as of this morning:

§  1 November 2010 - 15 March 2011


WP2 - Assimilation of Precipitation

è  Provide tempo-spatial fields of precipitation §  Radar observations not available before 2005

§  Substitute for radar in LHN

è  Implementation §  Spatial Generalized Linear Model (SGLM)

§  Currently driven by data from rain gauges, IR brightness temperatures


WP2 – Assimilation of Precipitation

è  Example §  Probability of precipitation (y/n)

§  Estimated radar precipitation

è  Data used §  Rain gauges

§  Meteosat TB


3 August 2007 – 02 to 03 UTC


Regional Reanalysis and Assimilation of Precipitation

WP3 – Microwave Forward Operator

è  Development of a microwave forward operator §  COSMO output

§  Verification using MW sensors


§  Passive / Active Microwave TRAnsfer operator (PAMTRA)

§  Simulation of arbitrary MW sensors

§  Available as a verification tool for COSMO data

-  HErZ

-  DWD


WP3 – Microwave Forward Operator

è  Example §  CloudSat


16 June 2007 - 00 UTC


Verification with the MW Forward Operator PAMTRA

WP5 – Verification

è  Verification of the regional reanalysis §  Implement tools and develop new methods for verifying reanalyses

§  Use independent observations

§  Compare to global reanalyses


§  Development and tests performed on test month

§  Verification from different perspectives

§  Effect of LHN on the reanalysis


WP5 – Verification


LHN 1.00 LHN 0.25 LHN 0.00


Verification of the COSMO-DE reanalysis






§  Teaching

§  Cooperation

§  Visibility

§  External funding


Outline

Teaching

è  Supervision of theses §  6 PhD students

§  3 Master students (+3 finished)

§  1 Bachelor student

è  Lectures

§  Standard lectures

§  Data assimilation (J. Keller)

§  Joint seminar on research topics in HErZ (TB1, TB4)

è  Training events

§  HErZ Training Event on Verification, Spring 2013 (TB4, TB5)


Cooperation

è  Internal §  Project Advisory Board (PAB)

§  6 permanent members from DWD

§  Continuous advise and support

è  External

§  European partners in the FP7-SPACE Call

§  NCAR (GSP, DAReS, RAL), NOAA (NCDC)

§  CMA/CAS (China)

§  …


Visibility

è  Publications §  Three journal articles, directly related to HErZ

§  First synthesis of all WP still in preparation (poster)

è  Presentations

§  Conference contributions

§  Public lecture events

è  External funding proposals

§  Especially reanalysis activities on the European domain …


External funding proposals

è  FP7-SPACE Call: UERRA Ensemble system of regional re-analyses, 12 European partners ≈ 340,000 € (6)

è  FP7 CORE-CLIMAX Coordination-action for regional reanalyses and their verification ≈ 190.000 € (✓)

è  KLIWAS Coupled atmosphere-ocean-reanalysis for North Sea/Baltic Sea ≈ 385,000 € (6)

è  SFB/TR Initiative – Terrestrial Water and Energy Cycle Regional reanalysis for Africa (✎)








Outline

Summary and Outlook

è  Scientifically §  Development of a high-resolution regional reanalysis

§  Verification and validation from different perspectives, e.g., PAMTRA

§  Reanalysis ≠ operational analysis

è  Structurally


Summary and Outlook

è  Scientifically

è  Structurally

§  Increased impact through an additional CORDEX/EU reanalysis

§  Framework for the participation in international activities on climate monitoring

§  Learnt from global reanalyses

1.  End-to-end programme

2.  Sustained and with long-term perspective

3.  Adequate evaluation of products

4.  Dissemination beyond the research domain


Hans-Ertel-Centre

HErZ TB4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Retrospective Analysis of Regional Climate Christian Ohlwein, Petra Friederichs, Andreas Hense, Ieda Pscheidt, Christoph Wosnitza, David Willms Meteorologisches Institut, Universität Bonn Susanne Crewell, Stefan Kneifel, Stephanie Redl, Sandra Steinke Institut für Geophysik und Meteorologie, Universität zu Köln Jan Keller Deutscher Wetterdienst http://www.herz.uni-bonn.de/

Evalua&on of the Hans-‐Ertel-‐Centre for Weather Research 19 November 2012, DWD, Offenbach

HErZ TB4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics · HErZ TB4 Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics...

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