Hier steht der Titel der Präsentation - Freie Universität · Abfall Biomasse Umwelt- und Abwärme...

1© Prognos AG

Blueprint Germany

Strategy for a climate safe 2050:

thinking from the target

Prognos AG,

Institute for applied ecology, Dr. Ziesing

commissioned by WWF Germany

Dr. Almut Kirchner Salzburg Sept 06th, 2010

2© Prognos AG

Who is Prognos?

Foundation: 1959 in Basel, SwitzerlandLocations: Basel, Berlin, Bremen, Brussels,

Düsseldorf, Munich, StuttgartThink tank and innovative mediator for both public and private enterprises, government ministries, local authorities and international organisationsassistance in taking strategic decisions and in implementing them on the basis of authoritative and objective analyses, evaluations and forecastsinterdisciplinary cooperation of our teams is the basis for successful work for more than 100 national and international projectsConsultancy Areas:

- Economics & Demographics- Healthcare, Social Policy & Family- Innovation, Technology & Education- Public Management- Regional Development- Energy & Climate Protection- Waste Management, Secondary Raw Materials,

Regions of the Future

Environment

Economy

Innovation

Waste management

Energy

Policy and

Society

Learning and

Working

Healthcare

“Planning needs a concept for the future. The Prognos Reports help us to develop this concept.”Prof. Dr. Norbert Walter, Chief Economist, Deutsche Bank Group

For a company overview please refer to the attached company brochure W

ho is

Pro

gnos

3© Prognos AG

Our basic work principles: Scientific competence, expertise, commitment, experience creativity

Risk-Analysis

SWOT-Analysis

Benchmarking

Interviews / Desk Research

Prognos ownforecast models Plausibility check /

Feasibility

Competitive advantage matrix

We are committed to the best Swiss tradition of independence, neutrality and internationalism. Our values are: substance, innovative methods, accurate project work and last but not least, sustainable results.

We research using own research results compiled in a substantiated, long-term and continuingly updated database and a variety of public and non-public sources, and, in particular, in- depth interviews with customers, competitors, market experts and/or suppliers.

We evaluate based on facts and looking for solutions. Based on our branch and technology know-how and experience, we determine the competitive position and market perspectives of your target.

We forcast on the basis of sophisticated models medium- and long-term developments. Thus we bring you closer to the future and identify the key drivers as well as optimization potentials.

We focus to the specific needs of your investment project and are flexible to changing conditions during the process.

We work closely with our clients, providing a coordinated approach which focuses on the issues that influence your investment decision.

Prioritization matrix

Critical success factor

Strategy advise

4© Prognos AG

Any transaction needs analyses from different point of views. We use Prognos-wide experience...

Strategic and economic assessment of investment decisions Cost-benefit analyses, profitability check and business planningBusiness segment strategiesM & A monitoringRestructuring

Public Management5

Communication strategies for Infrastructure projectsCommunication management for environmentally relevantconflictsMediation projects

Communication6

The interdisciplinary cooperation of our team as well as our national and international partner network enables us to develop the right solutions: holistic, practical, based on the latest scientific findings.

1 Energy & Climate Protection

Analysis, scenarios and forecasts for energy systemsDevelopment of forecasts for electricity, gas, heat requirementsLong-term competitive analyses for power plants and price forecasts for electricity and fuelsEcological impacts (CO2 etc.)

2 Economy & Demography

Forecasts, scenarios and trends as a basis for future decisions Economic structure and branch development Impact of demographic and economic changes on the future infrastructure demand

3 Regional Development

Market, branch, use of potential and site analysis Regional monitoring and benchmarking Economic valuation of investments, cost-benefit and feasibility

Innovation & Technology4

Technological trend analysis on the basis of forecasting models Monitoring and controlling of processes of cluster development Regional training needs and skill analysis

5© Prognos AG

Project team

Prognos AGDr. Almut Kirchner (Project Director)Dr. Michael SchlesingerDr. Bernd WeinmannPeter HoferDr. Andreas KemmlerVincent RitsMarco WünschMarcus KoeppLucas KemperUte ZweersSamuel Straßburg

editorial assistant: Andrea Ley

Öko-Institut e.V.Dr. Felix Chr. Matthes(Project Director) Julia Busche Verena Graichen Dr. Wiebke Zimmer Hauke Hermann Gerhard Penninger Lennart Mohr

Dr. Hans-Joachim Ziesing

Proj

ect

team

s

6© Prognos AG

Reference scenario: assumptions and results

Age

nda

Agenda / Inhaltsübersicht

Innovation scenario: assumptions and results

Method, project organisation

additional measures and potentials

cost and savings issues

decomposition analysis

strategic conclusions

7© Prognos AG

Questions, Project Organisation

how can a reduction of -95 % GHG-emissions be achieved until 2050 in a highly industrialised country?

– Is this possible in the known patterns of industrial societies ?– How far are todays‘ policy instruments already adapted to meeting the target? – What has to be principally changed ?– What technical requirements must be met ?– Will people have to change their patterns of living and consumption?

Greatest part of GHG-Emissions in GER are energy related CO2-Emissions -the energy sector ist covered by detailed energy system model calculations

Que

stio

ns

8© Prognos AG

Scenarios and methods, project organisation3 steps:

– Reference szenario (bup): todays‘ policy for climate protection, efficiency development

ambitious development of known instruments,steady development and improvement of efficiency technologies, best practice-strategies

– innovation scenario (bup): target scenariostrategic assumptions for sectors of energy demand,technological innovationsmodal split in passenger transport, freight transportadaptation in structure of industry segments

– options without CCS and with CCS in power generation (from 2025)– phase out of nuclear power– gap: are there additional packets of measures which help closing a potential

gap? Changes in consuming patterns etc. (higher level of aggragation)? (Öko-Institut)

decomposition of results (institute for applied ecology & Dr. Ziesing) (top-down): contribution of influence factors, mile stones? strategic conclusions, proposal of political measures Sc

enar

ios

and

met

hods

9© Prognos AG

Description and results of reference secnario

10© Prognos AG

socio economic framework data

GDP: +43 %, 0,8 % p.a. pop.: -12,5 %, ageing population rel. 2010: +47%, 1,05 p.a. household size : 2,11 1,86 fr

amew

ork

data

11© Prognos AG

Reference scenario

strategy („if-then“)-scenario, effects of given policy measures

IEKP, continued and tightened, esp. buildings (EnEV, EEW-G, etc.), transport (vehicles), EU efficiency Services Directive etc.

technology (examples): – lighting: LED, OLED – innovative technologies based on gas (e.g. fc combined heat and power

heatings, gas powered heat pumps), – cross application technologies like motors, pumps, compressed air on

highest efficiency standards– waste heat use widespread in industry and services sector – Green ICT– chp …

refe

renc

e, a

ssum

ptio

ns

12© Prognos AG

Reference scenario (without CCS): energy related GHG- emissions

1990 – 2050:

w/o CCS: -52 %

w CCS: -57 %

Ref

eren

ce: r

esul

ts

14© Prognos AG

description and results innovation scenario

15© Prognos AG

innovation scenario, strategic packages of measures

method: set target for 2050 „what needs to happen that…“, iterative calculationspower production: development of renewables as in strategic scenario of DLR 2008, with less biomass in power prod., less importationBiomass: domestic primary potentails are limited to 1‘200 PJ …. (1‘700 - 2‘000 PJ with imports of sustainably produced biomass)Buildings: utmost standards (passive +) for new and upgraded existing buildings, nearly no fossile energy sources for space heatingtransport:

– shift of freight to rail, no nationwide new infrastructure

– strategic change to electric mobility in individual mobility (no regular fuel, nearly no Diesel fuel in 2050)

– no fossil fuels in motorised transport Biofuels of 2nd and 3rd generation in freight transport, some biogas in personal

individual mobility

inno

vatio

n: s

trat

egic

pac

kage

16© Prognos AG

innovation scenario: strategic packages of measures

technology: new key technologies for materials and processes

– materials (esp. compound materials, high efficiency, insulation materials), metals will be widely replaced and reduced

– nano, bio, bionics– process innovations (e.g. katalytic and enzyme-based processes

inchemical industry),– miniaturized processes– integrated processes (lab on chip)– example pharmaceutical industry: specific carriers reduce medication

aplied and produced to lower quantities, even lower orders of magnitude– example domestic appliances: waterless washing machines,

electromagnetic refrigeration– example ICT: visor technology

inno

vatio

n: s

trat

egic

pac

kage

17© Prognos AG

innovation scenario: strategic packages of measures

Industry and services: change in structure of segments (energy intensive industries: , further ind , services ), gross economic growth nearly unchanged (+ 0,3 +1%)

0,70

0,80

0,90

1,00

1,10

1,20

1,30

1,40

1,50

2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

Inde

xwer

t

energieintensive Branchen übrige Branchenenergieintensive Branchen übrige Branchen

inno

vatio

n: s

trat

egic

pac

kage

18© Prognos AG

industrial production values: comparison of scenarios

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2005 2050 Referenz 2050 Ziel

Mrd €

Gew. von Steinen, sonst. Bergbau Ernährung und Tabak PapiergewerbeGrundstoffchemie sonstige chemische Industrie Gummi- und KunststoffwarenGlas, Keramik Verarbeitung v.Steinen und Erden MetallerzeugungNE-Metalle, Giessereien Metallbearbeitung MaschinenbauFahrzeugbau Sonstige Wirtschaftszweige in

nova

tion:

str

ateg

ic p

acka

ge

20© Prognos AG

Innovation scenario: final energy comsumption

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

1'000

2'000

3'000

4'000

5'000

6'000

7'000

8'000

9'000

10'000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

IndexPJ

Kohle Heizöl Benzin aus Mineralöl Diesel aus Mineralöl Flugtreibstof f

Gase Strom Fernwärme Biokraf tstoff Biogas

Biomasse Umweltwärme Solarenergie

Private Haushalte GHD Industrie Verkehr

2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

Index CO2-Emissionen

res – 76%ser – 67 %ind – 5 3 %trans – 4 0 %FEC – 59 %

el – 38 %ren (w/o el)

+ 207 %

Inno

vatio

n sc

: FEC

21© Prognos AG

Innovation scenario: electricity consumption by type of use

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

1.600

1.800

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PJ

PHH DL Kraf t DL Kühlen und Lüf tenDL Sonstiges Industrie Kraf t Industrie SonstigesGV Schiene PV Schiene PV Elektroautos

transport 2005: 58 PJ, 3,6 % of total comsumption of electricity2050: 187 PJ, 18,5 % of total consumption of electricity

E-Mobility 2050: 101 PJ (equiv. 30 GW PV inst. power, 15 GW wind power, ca. 5 GW baseload-pp) Inno

vatio

n: e

lect

ricity

con

sum

ptio

n

23© Prognos AG

Innovation scenario without CCS: power generation

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Kernkraft Steinkohle Braunkohle Öl und sonstige Erdgas Speicher (Pumpspeicher, sonstige) Erneuerbare Stromimport

fossile pp: only gas (peak / )balancing powercapacity of storages: factor four

production from storages: factor eight

primary production RES: 85 % of net production

Inno

vatio

n w

ithou

CC

S: p

ower

gen

erat

ion

24© Prognos AG

Feed

-in R

enew

able

s

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

PV

Wind-Onshore

Wind-Offshore

Geothermie und Biomasse (25%)

Fluktuating feed-in from renewable sources in 2030, in MW

1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

25© Prognos AG

Load curve in 2030, in MW (Germany, ex.)

Load

cur

ve

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

26© Prognos AG

Res

ultin

g lo

ad

-10.000

0

10.000

20.000

30.000

40.000

50.000

60.000

70.000

80.000

90.000

1 1001 2001 3001 4001 5001 6001 7001 8001

Resulting load in 2030 (electricity demand minus feed- in of renewables)

27© Prognos AG

Innovation scenario without CCS: Primary energy consumption (without non-energetic consumption)

0

2'000

4'000

6'000

8'000

10'000

12'000

14'000

16'000

2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ

Kernkraft Steinkohle Braunkohle Heizöl schwerHeizöl leicht Benzin aus Mineralöl Diesel aus Mineralöl BiokraftstoffeFlugtreibstoff Erdgas, andere Naturgase Sonstige Gase BiogasAbfall Biomasse Umwelt- und Abwärme GeothermieSolarenergie Windenergie Wasserkraft

PEC total:-57 %

share or RES 2050: 73 %

Biomass: 1‘720 PJ

Inno

vatio

n w

ithou

t C

CS:

PEC

28© Prognos AG

Innovation scenario without CCS: energy-related greenhouse gases

0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mio t CO2‐Äqu

ivalen

t

Private Haushalte GHD Industrie Verkehr Fernwärmeerzeugung Stromerzeugung Sonst. Umwandlung Energiebed. CO2-Em. gem. Inventar CH4 N2O

change in relation to 1990: -91 %

Inno

vatio

n w

ithou

t C

CS:

GH

G

29© Prognos AG

Innovation without CCS: total GHG emissions

0

200

400

600

800

1'000

1'200

1'400

1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mio

t C

O2-

Äqui

vale

nt

Private Haushalte GHD IndustrieVerkehr Umwandlungssektor gesamt Energiebedingte sonst. EmissionenFlüchtige und prozessbed Emiss. Produktverwendung LandwirtschaftLandnutzung und Forsten Abfallwirtschaft Insgesamt THG-Emissionen

Inno

vatio

n w

ithou

t C

CS:

GH

G to

tal

change in relation to 1990: -87 %

30© Prognos AG

Innovation scenario: additional investments by sectors

Inno

vatio

n: in

vest

men

ts

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mio

. €

Wärme PHH Strom PHHDienstleistungssektor, annuitätisch Industriesektor, annuitätischE-Autos E-Tankst.Bahn Inf rastruktur

31© Prognos AG

Innovation scenario: additional investments vs. savings

Resultant: max. 0,6 % of GDP (2024)

Net saving from 2043 onwards

discounted sum:0,3 % BIP

Inno

vaito

n: in

vest

men

ts v

s. s

avin

gs

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050Mrd. €

Investitionen Einsp.ohne CCS Einsp. mit CCS

Resultante ohne CCS Resultante mit CCS

32© Prognos AG

Additional packages to reach the target (-95 %)

CCS in industral processes (limestone, cement, iron/steel)renewably produced hydrogen in basic chemistry (production of ammonia)CCS in production of biofuels of 2nd and 3rd generation (net carbon sink)Biomethane for production of industrial process heatBiofuels in the aviation sectorchanges in land use, reduction of meat production (animal husbandry) and meat consumption

reduction 1990 – 2050: total -96 % sources of additional biomass ? Global p.c. equity estimation: imports

possible up to about 2100 PJ.

addi

tiona

l pot

entia

ls

33© Prognos AG

per-capita-emissions and cumulated emissionsAmbitious long-term targets & short-term mitigation are importantwichtig

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1990 2005 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

t CO

2-Ä

qu./E

W

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Mrd

t. C

O2-

Äqu

. ab

2005

Andere THG - Pro-Kopf-Emission CO2 - Pro-Kopf-Emission Andere THG - kumulierte Emissionen ab 2005CO2 - kumulierte Emissionen ab 2005

Ist-Daten Referenzszenario Innovationsszenario Modell Deutschland

Prognos / Öko-Institut 2009

com

paris

on p

.c.,

cum

ulat

ed

34© Prognos AG

Decomposition analysis, method

top-down-method for comparison of scenariosidea: decompose results of scenarios (emissions) by influence factors

– extensive components (e.g. space, freight tons, population)– efficiency related components– substitution of energy sources– GHG-intensity (special cases CCS, nuclear power)– „innovation content“– time framework of investment

method works on aggregated scenario data by sector and energy sourcegraphical convention: „downward count“

Dec

ompo

sitio

n an

alys

is

35© Prognos AG

decomposition analysis I: energy effieciency & RES as core elements (60 %)

-1.000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mio

. t C

O2-

Äqu

. ggü

. 200

5

AndereLandnutzung und ForstenLandwirtschaftAbfallwirtschaftIndustrieprozesseBrennstoffwechsel (fossil)ElektrifizierungErneuerbare EnergienAndere EnergieeffizienzEffizienz GebäudeEffizienz StromanwendungNachfragen

Inno

vatio

ns-S

zena

rio

R

efer

enz-

Sze

nario

Mod

ell D

euts

chla

nd


Dec

ompo

sitio

n an

alys

is

36© Prognos AG

Decomposition analysis II:the greatest contribution to emission reduction is produced by long living capital

stock: immediate action is important

-1.000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mio

. t C

O2-

Äqu

. ggü

. 200

5

Weniger langlebiger KapitalstockLandnutzung und ForstenLandwirtschaftAbfallwirtschaftIndustrieprozesseBrennstoffwechsel (fossil)ElektrifizierungErneuerbare EnergienAndere EnergieeffizienzEffizienz GebäudeEffizienz StromanwendungNachfragen

Inno

vatio

ns-S

zena

rio

R

efer

enz-

Sze

nario

Mod

ell D

euts

chla

nd


Dec

ompo

sitio

n an

alys

is

37© Prognos AG

Decomposition analysis III:a growing share of the emission reduction is dependent of „innovation intensity“:

technology development as well as system changes

-1.000

-900

-800

-700

-600

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mio

. t C

O2-

Äqu

. ggü

. 200

5

Weniger stark innovationsintensivLandnutzung und ForstenLandwirtschaftAbfallwirtschaftIndustrieprozesseBrennstoffwechsel (fossil)ElektrifizierungErneuerbare EnergienAndere EnergieeffizienzEffizienz GebäudeEffizienz StromanwendungNachfragen

Inno

vatio

ns-S

zena

rio

R

efer

enz-

Sze

nario

Mod

ell D

euts

chla

nd


Dec

ompo

sitio

n an

alys

is

38© Prognos AG

conclusions, strategic approaches

39© Prognos AG

(technical) system issues for renewables (and more)

development of RES-electricity and storage / grid should be realized parallel, well-directed and fast (20 GW storage capacity, ca. 20 GW balancing power)realisation (permit, planning, construction) Offshore-Windenergy capacities (38 GW), connection issues!Innovation and degression of specific costs PV (29 GW, 3rd Gen. crucial)system geothermal power (5 GW) – underground!development of biomass strategy, preparation for sustainable importing strategyestimation of regional and to local climate related biomass potentials strategic development of waste product and plant waste potentialsdevelopment of production processes for 3rd generation biofuelsdecentralized fossile chp is only a transitional solution for about one generation!new heat transporting grids only in very special cases mandatory energetic upgrade of buildingsCO2 – sink-strategy; development C-processingnew coal based power plants only with CCS or guaranteed upgrading

stra

tegi

c im

plic

atio

ns

42© Prognos AG

five strategic fields for public discussion – new consensus and alliances are necessary

Biomass: sources, trade, use in different fields in different periods

CCS as necessary option (apart from the power plant sector)(processes, sink for biomass refoming processes)

district and local heating, lock-in-situations should be avoided

organisation, distribution of burdens especially for upgrading of buildings (substantial social questions)

Infrastructure (electricity, natural gas, CO2) – Investments under uncertainty, negotiation processes with potential for substantial public conflicts

long lasting processes and negotiations – better start asap !

43© Prognos AG

6i-strategie

Innovations of all kinds ,Infrastructures of the future,Industrial creativity,Integrated strategies,Intelligente regulation, andInternational cooperation

44© Prognos AG

Dr. Almut KirchnerMarktfeldleiter Energie- und KlimapolitikHenric Petri-Strasse 9CH-4010 BaselT: +41 61 32 73 331E: [email protected] web: www.prognos.com Publ.-Db 15.10.2009

your contact:

© Prognos AG

Thank you for your attention!

http://www.prognos.com/

58© Prognos AG

Innovationsszenario, Ergebnisse PHH

- Reduktion des Raumwärmebedarfs auf 14 % (2005 – 2050)-praktisch vollständige „Durchsanierung“ des Bestandes- hohe Solarthermie- quote

Inno

vatio

n, P

HH

59© Prognos AG

Ergebnis Innovationsszenario, Dienstleistungssektor

- Reduktion des Raumwärmebedarfs fast vollständig(2005 – 2050)-Kühlen / Lüften + 15 %- Prozesswärme, Kraft nicht beliebig reduzierbar

Inno

vatio

n, D

L

60© Prognos AG

Ergebnis Innovationsszenario, Industrie

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

500

1'000

1'500

2'000

2'500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

IndexPJ

Steinkohle Braunkohle Mineralöle Gase

Strom Fernwärme Erneuerbare

Raumwärme Beleuchtung Prozesswärme mechanische Energie

Information und Kommunikation

2005 2020 2030 2040 2050


Prozess- wärme: – 50 %Kraft: – 43 %Hauptenergieträger: Gas und StromKohle in Restgrössen (Stahl)

Inno

vatio

n, In

dust

rie

61© Prognos AG

Ergebnis Innovationsszenario Verkehr PKW nach Antriebstypen, in Tsd.

0

5'000

10'000

15'000

20'000

25'000

30'000

35'000

40'000

45'000

50'000

2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

Tsd.

Benzin, ohne Hybrid Dieselantrieb Benzin, Hybrid Plug-in HybridantriebElektroantrieb Brennstof fzellenantrieb Flüssiggasantrieb Erdgasantrieb

Inno

vatio

n, V

erke

hr

62© Prognos AG

Ergebnisse Innovationsszenario Verkehr, Energieträger

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ

Bioethanol Benzin aus Mineralöl Biodiesel Diesel aus Mineralöl Flugtreibstoffe Erdgas

Flüssiggas Wasserstoff Strom

Bioethanol Benzin aus Mineralöl Biodiesel Diesel aus Mineralöl Flugtreibstoffe Erdgas

Flüssiggas Wasserstoff Strom

Index CO2‐Emissionen

Personenverkehr

Güterverkehr

Güt

erve

rkeh

rPe

rson

enve

rkeh

r

Inno

vatio

n, V

erke

hr

63© Prognos AG

Innovationsszenario, Ergebnisse Endenergieverbrauch

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

1'000

2'000

3'000

4'000

5'000

6'000

7'000

8'000

9'000

10'000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

IndexPJ

Kohle Heizöl Benzin aus Mineralöl Diesel aus Mineralöl Flugtreibstof f

Gase Strom Fernwärme Biokraf tstoff Biogas

Biomasse Umweltwärme Solarenergie

Private Haushalte GHD Industrie Verkehr

2005 2020 2030 2040 2050


PHH – 76%DL – 6 7 %Ind – 5 3 %Verk – 4 0 %EEV – 59 %

Strom – 38 %EE (ohne Strom)

+ 207 %

Inno

vatio

n EE

V

64© Prognos AG

Innovationsszenario, Ergebnis Stromerzeugung „mit CCS“

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

TWh

Kernkraft Steinkohle Steinkohle mit CCS Braunkohle Braunkohle mit CCS Öl und sonstige Erdgas Speicher (Pumpspeicher, sonstige) Erneuerbare Stromimport

fossile KW: nur noch Gas (Spitze / Regel) und CCS (3 GW SK, 10 GW BK)Ausbau Speicherkapazität Faktor 2,4,Verfünffachung Speichererzeugung

Inno

vatio

n, S

trom

mit

CC

S

65© Prognos AG

Innovationsszenario, PEV (ohne nichtenergetischer Verbrauch) ohne CCS

0

2'000

4'000

6'000

8'000

10'000

12'000

14'000

16'000

2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ


PEV gesamt:-57 %Anteil EE 2050: 73 %Biomasse: 1‘720 PJ

Inno

vatio

n, P

EV

66© Prognos AG

Innovationsszenario, PEV (ohne nichtenergetischer Verbrauch) mit CCS

0

2'000

4'000

6'000

8'000

10'000

12'000

14'000

16'000

2005 2020 2030 2040 2050

PJ


PEV gesamt: -59 %Anteil EE 2050: 59 %Biomasse 2050: 1‘720 PJ

Inno

vatio

n, P

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Hier steht der Titel der Präsentation - Freie Universität · Abfall Biomasse Umwelt- und Abwärme...

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