Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System...

28
Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus Doll Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung (IWW) Universität Karlsruhe (TH) REVENUE Seminar 1 Brusels, June 9th 2004

Transcript of Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System...

Page 1: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe

Claus Doll Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und

Wirtschaftsforschung (IWW)Universität Karlsruhe (TH)

REVENUE Seminar 1Brusels, June 9th 2004

Page 2: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Objectives and method of task 2.4• Goals:

– Investigation of the dynamics behind long-term decisions in transport network planning.

– Identification of the key drivers behind long-term optimality decisions.

• Approach: – Development of a small transport sector specific

system dynamics model (MARS), containing several evaluation tools

– Application of the ASTRA model to answer general questions concerning the link betwen transport and the rest of economy.

• Discussion: Applicability of the framework within the case studies.

Page 3: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Contents

• System Dynamics and CGE-Models

• Revenue Distribution within the Transport Sector: Structure and Results of the MARS model

• Revenue allocation within or outside the Transport Sector: Results of the ASTRA-Model for Europe

• Conclusions

Page 4: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Task 2.4: Dual model applicationMARS (Multimodal Assessment of Revenue allocation Strategies):

Partial analysis of revenue allocation variants within the transport sector by assuming a self-financing system of 4 transport modes.

Rough model calibration to Europe and application to 25 combinations out of pricing and fund allocation policies.

ASTRA (ASsessment of TRAnsport Policies.

System-Dynamics model platform developed during several EC-funded research projects. Covers 14 countries, passenger and freight transport of all modes, trade and production by 25 economic sectors, government activities, environment and traffic safety.

The model is used to investigate long-term effects of earmarking pricing revenues in the EU Member States.

Brief presentation of model mechanisms and some results.

Short presentation of modular model structure and feedback mechanisms. Detailed discussion of scenario results for the EU-15 countries.

Page 5: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

MARS Model: Some feedback mechanismsTravel speed

Traffic volume

Infrastructure capacity

Infrastructure quality

Available Budget

Congestion pricing revenues

Fund compositionand allocation rules

Budget spendingrules

Time costsWelfaremeasure

Environmentalpricing revenues

Time

Modal share

Relevant feedback loops:

1. Traffic volume – travel speeds – congestion revenues – available budget – infrastructure capacity – travel speeds – time costs – traffic volume: Negative, results in equilibrium or oscillations.

2. Time – (traffic volume) – infrastructure quality – travel speeds – traffic volume – infrastructure quality: Slightly negative dominated by time-dependent deterioration of infrastructure.

3. Traffic volume – average infrastructure prices – traffic volume: Positive loop caused by economies of scale in AC-Models; might lead to excessive demand or to crowding out of entire demand.

Average infrastructureprices

Page 6: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Features of the MARS model• 4 modes and 5 transport funds (urban, inter-urban, road,

P.T. and intermodal/inter-regional). • Pricing options: Infrastructure (AC and SMC), congestion,

accidents (SMC) and environment (SMC). plus mark-ups. • Assessment of max. 5 revenue spending scenarios for

each of max. 5 pricing policy scenarios. • Welfare measure = time costs valued by the „rule of half“• Self-financing of transport sector with link to capital

market. • Stochastic deterioration of networks, by time and traffic

load. • User time costs depending of traffic load and network

quality.

Page 7: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Definition and results of the base scenario

• Model calibration for Europe where possible• Time horizon: 30 years. • Results: Mode-specific revenue use recommended in 3

of 5 pricing scenarios– Costs of fund administration and fund allocation

rules to be considered!

R1: No funds

R2: Network

R3: Area

R4: Intermodal

R5: P.T. sup.

P1: Urban Congestion mill. € -5.709 -10.563 -10.305 -10.563 -10.305 P2: Motorway Toll mill. € -7.984 -7.080 -4.910 -2.447 -2.647 P3: Swiss case mill. € -7.968 -4.151 -5.750 -673 -743 P4: Pure SMCP mill. € -3.275 -8.844 -10.070 -9.922 -10.070 P5: SMCP+mark-ups mill. € 6.311 5.536 5.359 5.739 5.359

Page 8: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Results for pricing scenario P1: Urban congestion charging• Nearly / exactly identical slope of allocation schemes

R2 to R5: Litte excessive funds to distribute.

Results for policy scenario 1Urban congestion pricing

-25'000

-20'000

-15'000

-10'000

-5'000

0

5'000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time horizon (years)

Pres

ent v

alue

of u

ser t

ime

cost

s (m

io.

Euro

)

R1: No Funds R2: NetworkR3: Area R4: IntermodalR5: P.T. Support

Page 9: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

R2: Network funds R3: Area funds Share of congested traffic

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (years)

Mode 1 Road Inter-urbanMode 2 Road UrbanMode 3 P.T. Inter-UrbanMode 4 P.T. Urban

Share of congested traffic

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (years)

Mode 1 Road Inter-urbanMode 2 Road UrbanMode 3 P.T. Inter-UrbanMode 4 P.T. Urban

Network quality standard index

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (years)

Mode 1 Road Inter-urbanMode 2 Road UrbanMode 3 P.T. Inter-UrbanMode 4 P.T. Urban

Network quality standard index

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (years)

Mode 1 Road Inter-urbanMode 2 Road UrbanMode 3 P.T. Inter-UrbanMode 4 P.T. Urban

Details for pricing scenario P1

Page 10: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Results for pricing scenario P2: Average infrastructrue cost charging on motorways• Much more dynamic than P1 due to more stable

excess funds available for redistribution. Results for policy scenario 2

Motorway tolling

-25.000

-20.000

-15.000

-10.000

-5.000

0

5.000

10.000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time horizon (years)

Pres

ent v

alue

of u

ser t

ime

cost

s (m

io. E

uro)

R1: No Funds R2: NetworkR3: Area R4: IntermodalR5: P.T. Support

Page 11: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Some details fore pricing scenario P2R3: Area funds R4: Intermodal fund

Share of congested traffic

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

14,0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (years)

Mode 1 Road Inter-urbanMode 2 Road UrbanMode 3 P.T. Inter-UrbanMode 4 P.T. Urban

Share of congested traffic

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (years)

Mode 1 Road Inter-urbanMode 2 Road UrbanMode 3 P.T. Inter-UrbanMode 4 P.T. Urban

Share of interest payments at annual

expenditures (excluding credit pay-back)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (years)

Mode 1 Road Inter-urbanMode 2 Road UrbanMode 3 P.T. Inter-UrbanMode 4 P.T. Urban

Share of interest payments at annual expenditures (excluding credit pay-back)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (years)

Mode 1 Road Inter-urbanMode 2 Road UrbanMode 3 P.T. Inter-UrbanMode 4 P.T. Urban

Page 12: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Results for pricing scenario P5: Full SRMC + mark-ups• Due to high and stable revenues in each mode no

transfer required and positive welfare until year +75

Results for policy scenario 5SRMC pricing with mark-ups

-4.000

-2.000

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time horizon (years)

Pres

ent v

alue

of u

ser t

ime

cost

s (m

io. E

uro)

R1: No Funds R2: NetworkR3: Area R4: IntermodalR5: P.T. Support

Page 13: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Some details for pricing scenario P5R1: No fund allocation R4: Intermodal fund

Share of congested traffic

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (years)

Mode 1 Road Inter-urbanMode 2 Road UrbanMode 3 P.T. Inter-UrbanMode 4 P.T. Urban

Share of congested traffic

0,0%

2,0%

4,0%

6,0%

8,0%

10,0%

12,0%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (years)

Mode 1 Road Inter-urbanMode 2 Road UrbanMode 3 P.T. Inter-UrbanMode 4 P.T. Urban

Network quality standard index

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (years)

Mode 1 Road Inter-urbanMode 2 Road UrbanMode 3 P.T. Inter-UrbanMode 4 P.T. Urban

Network quality standard index

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Time (years)

Mode 1 Road Inter-urbanMode 2 Road UrbanMode 3 P.T. Inter-UrbanMode 4 P.T. Urban

Page 14: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Sensitivity analysis for selected key variables

• Negative performance of all pricing scenarios in the long run due to the ambitious definition of the reference case.

• Time is less critical for the optimality ranking of the revenue allocation schemes than expected.

• In general, the model is rather stable against changes of parameters. one of the most sensitive ones is the influence of road quality on speed.

• The sensitivity results are to be considered in front of the specific calibration fo the model and might be totally different for other constellations.

Page 15: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

ASTRA modules and main interfaces

Modules:

POP: PopulationMAC: MacroeconomicsREM: Regional economicsFOT: Foreign tradeTRA: TransportENV: EnvironmentVFT: Vehicle fleetWEM: Welfare

Page 16: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Impactchains and their time structure

Pricing

Abbreviations:

GDP: Grossdomestic product

GVA: Grossvalue added

TPF: Total factorproductivity

FD: Freight demand

PO: Production output

IO: Input-output

Page 17: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

ASTRA-T Scenario DefinitionCharging regime Revenue allocation policy

Refund by

direct tax reduction

Refund by labour cost reduction

Reinvestment in in mode of charge

collection

Reinvestment by cross-

subsidisation

Congestion charging in urban areas Congestion-DT Congestion-LC Congestion-Road Congestion-Cross

Interurban road user tolls Interurban-DT Interurban-LC Interurban-Road Interurban-Cross

SMCP in all moces (TIPMAC scenarios) SMCP-DT SMCP-LC

• Fixed allocation of reinvestments to road types (single carriageway roads, motorways) or to

rail facilities (network, terminals, rolling stock). • Refund via tax increases: No price increases assumed as indicated by IASON model

applications of CGEurope and E3ME).• Refund via social contributions: 50% employers (partly increase of GVA) and 50% for

consumers (partial use for increased consumption).

Page 18: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Development of total revenues

• Outstanding level of TIPMAC SMC-revenues against partial toll regimes. • Lowest level by urban congestion revenues. • No great impact of transport-specific feedback loops on level of revenues.

Total revenues

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

bill.

Eur

o

Congestion-DTCongestion-LCCongestion-RoadCongestion-CrossInterurban-DTInterurban-LCInterurban-RoadInterurban-CrossSMCP-DTSMCP-LC

Page 19: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Overview of results for 2020Scenario

GDP

Em-ploy-ment

Con-sump-

tion

Invest-ments

Exports

TFP

Tons

Tkm

Trips

Pkm

CO2

Congestion-DT 1.52 -0.03 2.45 7.53 0.16 0.84 0.14 16.12 -0.04 0.24 1.52

Congestion-LC 0.87 -0.12 1.05 4.30 0.11 0.58 0.05 16.10 -0.05 0.21 0.87

Congestion-Road 1.42 0.48 1.08 3.96 0.19 0.76 0.69 16.45 -0.01 0.35 1.42

Congestion-Cross 1.33 0.42 0.95 3.91 0.18 0.66 0.58 16.42 -0.02 0.37 1.33

Interurban-DT -1.19 -0.78 -0.11 0.10 -2.17 -1.79 -2.18 -0.53 0.01 -0.49 -1.19

Interurban-LC -1.79 -0.84 -1.59 -2.78 -2.21 -2.03 -2.18 -0.50 -0.02 -0.54 -1.79

Interurban-Road 0.35 0.47 0.61 2.34 -1.77 -0.70 -0.85 0.20 -0.04 -0.31 0.35

Interurban-Cross 0.17 0.39 0.39 2.06 -1.81 -0.91 -0.98 0.23 -0.04 -0.31 0.17

SMCP-DT 1.13 -0.45 2.99 7.44 -3.03 0.07 -1.91 17.28 -0.42 -2.37 1.13 SMCP-LC -0.62 -0.77 -1.21 -0.57 -3.04 -0.59 -2.08 17.44 -0.44 -2.50 -0.62

Percent change from BAU to policy

Page 20: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Development of GDP (leading indicator)

GDP against BAU

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

[%]

Congestion-DTCongestion-LCCongestion-RoadCongestion-CrossInterurban-DTInterurban-LCInterurban-RoadInterurban-CrossSMCP-DTSMCP-LC

Page 21: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Explanation• Congestion charge: Generally positive as stimulation of

consumption and investments are not deemed by the decrease of exports

• Inter-urban toll: First negative development as exports get more expensive. Positive development of reinvestment scenarios due to increased investments and stimulated TFP. No recreation of refund-alternatives.

• SMCP and inter-urban tolling show, that the consumption impulse caused by the reduction of direct taxes is superior to the stimulation of employment via the reduction of labour costs.

• Road investments seem to perform slightly better than cross-funding, caused by higher time savings achievable in road.

Page 22: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Employment effectsEmployment against BAU

-1,0

-0,8

-0,6

-0,4

-0,2

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

[%]

Congestion-DTCongestion-LCCongestion-RoadCongestion-CrossInterurban-DTInterurban-LCInterurban-RoadInterurban-CrossSMCP-DTSMCP-LC

• Diffuse picture: most positive development of reinvestment scenarios.• Initial peak in SMCP-LC due to high income and consequently high potential to

reduce labour costs. But this is not sustainable due to generally high extra load on production costs.

Page 23: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Effects on total consumption

Consumption against BAU

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

[%]

Congestion-DTCongestion-LCCongestion-RoadCongestion-CrossInterurban-DTInterurban-LCInterurban-RoadInterurban-CrossSMCP-DTSMCP-LC

• Most significant stimulation by refund via direct tax reduction• Effect is neutralised in iter-urban tolls due to the reduction of exports

Page 24: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Effects on exportsExports against BAU

-3,5

-3,0

-2,5

-2,0

-1,5

-1,0

-0,5

0,0

0,5

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

[%]

Congestion-DTCongestion-LCCongestion-RoadCongestion-CrossInterurban-DTInterurban-LCInterurban-RoadInterurban-CrossSMCP-DTSMCP-LC

• Clear picture: inter-urban road tolls and SMCP on all modes increase production costs in export-oriented industries and thus reduce the productivity in this sector.

Page 25: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Investment effectsInvestments against BAU

-4,0

-2,0

0,0

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

[%]

Congestion-DTCongestion-LCCongestion-RoadCongestion-CrossInterurban-DTInterurban-LCInterurban-RoadInterurban-CrossSMCP-DTSMCP-LC

• Short-run: Positive impulses from direct use of revenues for reinvestment. • Long-run: Better performance of investment stimulation by refunding

Page 26: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Sensitivity analysis

Interurban-Cross

Impact on variable Link transport on GDP Employment Consumption Investment Export TFP tons tkm trips pkm CO2 Consumption -0.381 -0.296 -0.558 -1.106 -0.076 -0.203 -0.344 -0.211 0.057 0.015 -0.230 Employment 0.267 0.386 0.625 0.022 -0.059 0.134 0.235 0.108 0.043 0.121 0.159 Export -0.439 -0.297 -0.576 -0.765 -1.720 -0.268 -1.035 -1.742 0.072 0.019 -0.751 Intermediates -0.005 -0.011 0.199 0.050 -0.088 -0.113 -0.166 -0.311 0.108 0.076 -0.003 Investment 3.031 1.509 3.252 7.925 0.588 1.810 1.809 1.293 0.036 0.369 1.016 Productivity -2.675 -0.680 -3.003 -6.081 -0.723 -2.398 -1.622 -1.287 0.091 -0.120 -0.790

• Most significant influence of transport on investments • in case of strong modal shifts in long-distance transport strong influence on TFP. • Strong impact on exports in case of high price increases in long-distance transport.

• Method: Switching the link of transport to particular measures off. • Performed for three scenarios:

Congestion-DT, Congestion-Cross and Inter-urban-cross. Example:

Page 27: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Development of sensitivities over time• Example: Influence on GDP in Inter-urban-cross scenario

Change of GDP against BAU

-4,000

-3,000

-2,000

-1,000

0,000

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

2005 2010 2020

Year

Per

cent

age

chan

ge to

BA

U [%

]

Base Interurban Charge

Exclude Transport Influence onConsumptionExclude Transport Influence onEmploymentExclude Transport Influence onExportExclude Transport Influence onIntermediatesExclude Transport Influence onInvestmentExclude Transport Influence on TFP

Exclude Gov Debt Influence onInvestment

Page 28: Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und Wirtschaftsforschung Universität Karlsruhe (TH) The System Dynamics Approach: Results of Scenarios for Europe Claus.

Institut für Wirtschaftspolitik und WirtschaftsforschungUniversität Karlsruhe (TH)

Conclusions

• Considering revenue spending alternatives short- and long-term developments are to be distinguished.

• The optimality of particular allocation schemes is driven by the indicators considered and thus by policy preferences.

• In general the reinvestment of revenues in the transport sector seems to crease most positive effects via its stimulating impact on investments and factor productivity.

• The ASTRA model indicates a better performance of investments in roads compared to rail when considering economic indicators However, ASTRA does not contain a sophisticated capacity model, taking into account local network conditions. This information is to be contributed from the case study level.