La Teoría del Ciclo Económico de Friedrich von Hayek: Causas monetarias, efectos reales

7/28/2019 La Teora del Ciclo Econmico de Friedrich von Hayek: Causas monetarias, efectos reales

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/ Mbhafabtb b Anmtnr ih Mfihmfbs Imnhkfmbs ih db Yhfvirsfaba ai Zbrs F$ Zbhtgnh+]nrenhhi y Kbcstir ih Gfstnrfb aid Zihsbkfihtn Imnhkfmn( Bmtubdkihti$ si aisikpibmnkn prn isnrb bsfstihti ai db Yhfvirsfaba Zbrs FF$ Zbhtgnh+Bssbs 'Zbrs$ @rbhmfb&( I+kbfd? rieimb(cnkiz+eitbhmnurtJu+pbrfs5( r(Isti brtmudn mnrrispnhai b uhb pbrti ai db tisfs ai kbistrb ai db butnrb$ ih Gfstnrfb aidZihsbkfihtn Imnhkfmn$ sustihtbab ih nmtueri ai 5::= ih db Yhfvirsfaba ai Zbrs F( Dbbutnrb bcrbaimi dbs nesirvbmfnhis ai Orki ai Enyir y ai Bdixbhair Qneh$ bs mnkndbs sucirihmfbs y mrtfmbs ai ans ivbdubanris bhhfkns(Isti brtmudn uirimfefanid 57 ai siptfikeri ai 5::0 y supuedfmbmfh bprnebabid52 ai hnvfikeri ai 5::3(

DB QINUB AID MFMDN IMNHKFMN AI@UFIAUFMG PNH GBVIL? MBY]B]KNHIQBUFB]$ I@IMQN] UIBDI]

Uieimb Ckiz Eitbhmnurt/

Uisukih

Ckiz Eitbhmnurt$ Uieimb( Db tinrb aid mfmdn imnhkfmn ai

@rfiarfmg vnh Gbyil? mbusbs knhitbrfbs$ iìmtns ribdis$ Mubair +

hns ai Imnhnk b$ v( WWPFF$ h( 17$ Encnt$ 5::7$ pcfhbs 13+06(

Isti brtmudn prnpnhi uhb dimturb sfkudthib ai ans tixtns? Db

Qinrb knhitbrfb y id mfmdn imnhkfmn '2656& y Zrimfns y

prnaummfh '26=2&$ mnh id neoitfvn ai prisihtbr db tinrb aidns mfmdns imnhkfmns aid onvih Gbyil$ mnkn uh mnhouhtn tirfmn

mnhcruihti( Bkens tixtns pnsiih uhb uhfaba tiktfmb mnkpdikih+

tbrfb$ qui riprisihtb id pihsbkfihtn aid onvih Gbyil( Isti

brtmudn$ suerbyb db afstfhmfh ihtri id rnd qui ouicbh dns

`bmtnris ribdis y dns knhitbrfns ih db mngirihmfb ai su tinrb(

Buhqui Gbyil aikuistri qui id afhirn hn is hiutrn$ yb qui

ixfsti uhb vbrfbmfh ai db istrumturb ai dns primfns ridbtfvns$

su prnpsftn irb prnebr su hiutrbdfaba(

Zbdberbs mdbvi? Gbyil$ primfns$ hiutrbdfaba$ mfmdns$ iìmtns

ribdis$ iìmtns knhitbrfns( OID? E55$ I=2$ I=5$ I15(


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MYBAIUHN] AI IMNHNKB 17$ 5::717

Bestrbmt

Ckiz Eitbhmnurt$ Uieimb( @rfiarfmg vnh Gbyils eusfhiss mymdi

tginry? knhitbry mbusis$ ribd i`ìmts$ Mubair hns ai Imnhnk b$

v( WWPFF$ h( 17$ Encntb$ 5::7$ pbcis 13+06(

Qgfs brtfmdi prnpnsis b pbrbddid ribafhc n` twn tixts? Knhitbry

Qginry bha tgi Qrbai Mymdi '2656& bha Zrfmis bha Zrnaumtfnh

'26=2&( Qgi bfk fs tn prisiht tgi ynuhc Gbyils eusfhiss mymdi

tginry bs b mnhcruiht tginritfmbd wgndi( Entg tixts pnssiss b

mnkpdikihtbry tgikbtfm uhfty$ wgfmg riprisihts tgi tgfhlfhc n`

tgi ynuhc Gbyil( Qgfs ribafhc ikpgbsfzis tgi afstfhmtfnh eitwiih

tgi rndis pdbyia ey ribd bha knhitbry `bmtnrs fh tgi mngirihmi

n` gfs tginry( Ivih f` Gbyil aiknhstrbtis tgbt knhiy fs hnt

hiutrbd$ eimbusi tgiri fs vbrfbtfnh fh tgi strumturi n` ridbtfviprfmis$ gfs purpnsi wbs tn prnvi tgi hiutrbdfty n` knhiy(

Liy wnras? Gbyil$ prfmis$ hiutrbdfty$ mymdis$ ribd i`ìmts$

knhitbry i`ìmts( OID? E55$ I=2$ I=5$ I15(

Usuk

Ckiz Eitbhmnurt$ Uieimb( Db tgnrfi au mymdi mnhnkfqui ai

@rfiarfmg vnh Gbyil? mbusis knhtbfris$ i`ìts rids$ Mub+

air hns ai Imnhnk b$ v( WWPFF$ h( 17$ Encntb$ 5::7$ pbcis 13+06(

Mit brtfmdi prnpnsi uhi dimturi ih pbrbdddi ai aiux tixtis ?

Db tgnrfi knhtbfri it di mymdi mnhnkfqui '2656& it Zrfx it

prnaumtfnh '26=2&$ abhs di eut ai prsihtir db tgnrfi ais

mymdis mnhnkfquis mgiz Gbyil ih tbht quuh ihsikedi tgnrfqui

mngriht( Dis aiux tixtis pnssaiht uhi uhft tgkbtfqui

mnkpdkihtbfri quf riprsihti db pihsi au oiuhi Gbyil( Mi

trbvbfd snudfchi db afstfhmtfnh ihtri di rdi quf onuiht dis

`bmtiurs rids it knhtbfris abhs db mngrihmi ai sb tgnrfi(

Efih qui Gbyil aknhtri qui db knhhbfi hist pbs hiutri$

pufsqufd ixfsti uh mgbhcikiht ai db strumturi ais prfx ridbtf`s$

snh fhtihtfnh tbft ai prnuvir sb hiutrbdft(

Knt mds? Gbyil$ prfx$ hiutrbdft$ mymdis$ i`ìts rids$i`ìts knhtbfris( OID ?E55$ I=2$ I=5$ I15(


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DB QINUB AID MFMDN IMNHKFMN AI @UFIAUFMG PNH GBVIL 16

Db mnhtrfeumfh ai @rfiarfmg vnh Gbyil b db tinrb imnhkfmb is uhab+kihtbd$ aban id istban bmtubd ai db kbmrnimnhnkb knhitbrfb( Ih i imtn$Gbyil ai fihai db faib sich db mubd id dfeirbdfskn$ sfh Istban fhtirvih+tnr$ is uh sfstikb qui puiai mnhaumfr dbs imnhnkbs mbpftbdfstbs b uhiqufdferfn imnhkfmn afhkfmn$ qui gny pnarb sir ai fhfan mnkn p+tfkn$ ih id kbrmn ai db huivb shtisfs ihtri dns huivns mdsfmns y dnshuivns liyhisfbhns(

Id onvih Gbyil si nrkb ih db trbafmfh ai db ismuidb bustrbmb aid mbpftbd$ uhbmnrrfihti hinmdsfmb 'hn wbdrbsfbhb puistn qui hn gby kbxfkfzbmfnhis$ sfhn prn+

aumtfvfabais kbrcfhbdis&$ mbrbmtirfzbab pnr ixpdfmbr id sfstikb mbpftbdfstb b pbrtfrai uh knaidn ai iqufdferfn cihirbd ai truiqui bd qui si bbai id afhirn( Gbyilprnpnhi uh knaidn ai tfpn bustrbmn$ ih id mubd aismrfei uh prnmisn ai prnaum+mfh fhafrimtn$ riprisihtban pnr dns af irihtis istbafns aid trfhcudn ai Oivnhs2(Mnh isti knaidn si puiaih aitirkfhbr dns primfns ridbtfvns ih trkfhns ribdis ydns primfns knhitbrfns bd fhtrnaumfr db mbhtfaba ai afhirn(

Yhb viz mnhnmfan id iqufdferfn$ dns imnhnkfstbs bustrbmns si fhtirisbh pnr idaisiqufdferfn( Is bqu anhai si fhsmrfei db ispimf fmfaba ai Gbyil( Id aisi+qufdferfn si mbrbmtirfzb pnr db afvircihmfb ihtri db nirtb y db aikbhab cdnebdai efihis$ y si ivfaihmfb b trbvs ai uhb mrfsfs ai sneriprnaummfh 'aiefab bdb aisprnpnrmfh ihtri dns simtnris prnaumtfvns&$ dn qui riprisihtb db bsiaimrimfihti n hicbtfvb aid mfmdn(

Ih dns istuafns aisbrrnddbans$ gbstb prfhmfpfn ai dns bns trifhtb$ ihmnhtrb+kns uhb fkpnrtbhti ivndumfh mnhmiptubd ih ridbmfh mnh db ixpdfmbmfh aid

2 Oivnhs '2732& utfdfz uh trfhcudn pbrb riprisihtbr cr fmbkihti dbs af`irihtis itbpbs aidb istrumturb ai prnaummfh( Gbyil ritnkb istb mnhstrummfh pbrb ixpnhir su prnpfbtinrb( Zbrb uhb ixpdfmbmfh aitbddbab sneri isti tikb vir Cbrrfsnh '5::2$ 75+60&(


4/24

MYBAIUHN] AI IMNHNKB 17$ 5::79:

ihkihn aid mfmdn imnhkfmn5( Db tinrb ai dns mfmdns ai db ismuidb bustrb+mb$ y ispimfbdkihti db ai Gbyil$ bpnrtb uhb ai dbs prfkirbs oustf fmbmfnhistirfmbs ai db mrfsfs ai 2656 y$ mnh db tinrb ai Kfsis$ riprisihtb db pnsfmfh aidb trbafmfh bustrbmb aid pirnan ihtri cuirrbs=(

Zbrb su bhdfsfs$ Gbyil utfdfzb db afstfhmfh mnhvihmfnhbd istbedimfab pbrb ix+pdfmbr id mfmdn imnhkfmn? tinrbs knhitbrfbs y hn knhitbrfbs( Dbs tinrbsddbkbabs hn knhitbrfbs snh dbs qui ixpdfmbh dns mfmdns prnvnmbans pnr bm+tnris ribdis< pnr ioikpdn$ dns mbkefns timhndcfmns$ dbs vbrfbmfnhis ai dbsprmtfmbs ai mnhsukn i fhvirsfh n dbs ndbs ai nptfkfskn n pisfkfskn aidns ikprisbrfns( Dbs tinrbs knhitbrfbs si ri firih b dns mbkefns ih db n irtb

ai mraftn$ is aimfr$ b db mbhtfaba hnkfhbd ai afhirn ih mfrmudbmfh(

]fh ikebrcn$ pbrb Gbyil$ db af irihmfb ihtri istns ans tfpns ai tinrbs hn istbh fkpnrtbhti ih mnkpbrbmfh mnh db crbh afvircihmfb qui ixfsti ihtri dbsafstfhtbs tinrbs knhitbrfbs( Ih ntrns trkfhns$ gby uhb kbynr afstbhmfb ihtridbs tinrbs knhitbrfbs aid mfmdn imnhkfmn qui ihtri dbs knhitbrfbs y dbsribdis( Ihmnhtrbkns$ pnr uhb pbrti$ dbs qui mnhsfairbh mnkn mbusb ai dnsmfmdns dbs vbrfbmfnhis aid vbdnr aid afhirn y$ pnr ntrb$ dbs qui baouafmbh dnsmbkefns ribdis ai db istrumturb ai prnaummfh b mbusbs knhitbrfbs(

Yhn ai dns neoitfvns aid prisihti brtmudn is knstrbr db fkpnrtbhmfb tirfmb aidprfkir dfern ai imnhnkb ai Gbyil? Db tinrb knhitbrfb yid mfmdnimnhkfmn 'ihbaidbhti QKMI& id mubd sfcui sfihan ridbtfvbkihti aismnhnmfan$ fhmdusn ihtridns imnhnkfstbs ai gny ih ab1( Ntrn neoitfvn ks cihirbd is ismdbrimir db

5 ]fh ikebrcn$ Dumbs '2672& fhafmb qui hn guen crbhais prncrisns ih db tinrb ai dns mfmdnsimnhkfmns aisai dns bustrbmns$ pnsfedikihti$ pnr db bdtb ai uh hfvid ai nrkbdfzbmfhbaimuban( B pisbr ai istn$ is bsnkernsn ihmnhtrbr ih db dftirbturb ai dns bns trifhtb$faibs qui gbh risurcfan mnh uirzb ih db dtfkb ambab$ istb viz sneri db ebsi ai uhbrfcurnsb nrkbdfzbmfh kbtiktfmb( Zbrb dbs ridbmfnhis Gbyil+Dumbs$ vir Brihb '2661&(

= Gbyil istbeb prinmupban pnr id gimgn ai qui dns ebhmns mihtrbdis$ ispimfbdkihti id ai

Istbans Yhfans$ istbeb gbmfihan uh isuirzn pbrb mnkebtfr db aiprisfh b trbvs ai uhbpndtfmb ai ixpbhsfh aid mraftn( B pbrtfr ai isi knkihtn$ Gbyil mnkfihzb sus istuafnssneri dbs mrfsfs$ dns mfmdns y db tinrb knhitbrfb ih cihirbd(

1 Zbrtfkns ai db gfptisfs ai qui istb fchnrbhmfb si aiei b ans rbznhis prfhmfpbdis( Znr uhbpbrti$ id tixtn hn si trbauon bd fhcds gbstb 26==$ ans bns aispus ai db puedfmbmfh aiZrimfns y prnaummfh( Isti dtfkn qui$ pnr gbeir sfan puedfmban mnh kntfvn ai db ddicbab aiGbyil bd Dnhanh ]mgnnd n Imnhnkfms$ afrimtbkihti ih fhcds y ebon db prntimmfh yafrimmfh ai Uneefhs$ si eihifmf ai uh rpfan rihnkeri ih id kiafn fhtidimtubd fhcdsai bquid knkihtn( Znr ntrb pbrti$ db rimnkihabmfh uh pnmn pirhfmfnsb aid kfsknGbyil mubhan b frkb qui tnan dn qui gbeb aisbrrnddban ih QKMI bpbrimi fhmdufan ihZrimfns y prnaummfh$ y qui bgnrb sbeikns qui hn is mfirtn( Ih isti brtmudn si prnpnhi uhbdimturb pbrbdidb y mnkpdikihtbrfb ai dns ans tixtns aid onvih Gbyil y ai sus brtmudns$pbrb mnkprihair kionr isti knkihtn ai su pihsbkfihtn(


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tinrb aid mfmdn imnhkfmn y db mnhmipmfh aid afhirn aid onvih Gbyil ai dnsbns trifhtb( Mnh dn mubd si aisbrrnddbr db tinrb bustrbmb aid mfmdn imnhkfmn aiGbyil sdn b db duz ai dns trbebons ai 2656 y 26=2$ bh sbefihan qui ih trbebonspnstirfnris9 Gbyil sfcuf prn uhafzbhan vbrfns puhtns ai su tinrb aid mfmdn(

Dbs pricuhtbs mdbvis aid brtmudn snh tris? f& mkn bpbrimih dns mfmdns ih idknaidn ai Gbyil$ ff& mudis snh sus mnhsimuihmfbs sneri dbs ntrbs vbrfbedisai db imnhnkb y fff& mkn si ricrisb bd iqufdferfn> B dn mubd aiknstrbriknsqui id onvih Gbyil rispnhai? f& sf dbs tinrbs snh ribdis n snh tinrbs aid vbdnr$id aisiqufdferfn surci ai uh mbkefn ih dbs priirihmfbs n ai uh mbkefn tmhf+mn y$ sf dbs tinrbs snh knhitbrfbs$ id aisiqufdferfn prnvfihi ai uh mbkefn ih

db tbsb ai fhtirs knhitbrfb$ db mubd bimtb db mbhtfaba ai afhirn ih mfrmudbmfh(ff& Dbs mnhsimuihmfbs snh? uhb knaffmbmfh ih dns primfns ridbtfvns 'qui tbk+efh snh knhitbrfns&$ dn qui bdtirb id hfvid ai prnaummfh y pirkfti rimgbzbrdb tinrb mubhtftbtfvb$ mnh dn mubd si hficb db hiutrbdfaba aid afhirn( fff& ZbrbGbyil$ id ricrisn bd iqufdferfn is fhmfirtn pnrqui aipihai ai kumgns bmtn+ris$ mnkn aid pbtrh knhitbrfn 'pnr ioikpdn$ sf gby pbtrh+nrn&< aid sfstikbebhmbrfn y sus prnpfns mnkpnrtbkfihtns< dbs rfcfaimis< ihtri ntrns(

Bkens tixtns pnsiih uhb uhfaba tiktfmb mnkpdikihtbrfb qui riprisihtb idpihsbkfihtn aid onvih Gbyil$ sfh ikebrcn$ ih id prisihti brtmudn banptbrikns

id kfskn nraih ai prisihtbmfh ai QKMI pnr sir ks mdbrn( Ih db prfkirbsimmfh fhtihtbrikns sfhtitfzbr$ erivikihti$ dbs tinrbs hn knhitbrfbs aid mfmdnimnhkfmn fhtrnaumfabs pnr Gbyil( Ih db sicuhab simmfh ixpnharikns db ebsiai dbs tinrbs knhitbrfbs ai dns mfmdns imnhkfmns$ bs mnkn db fh duihmfb aiSfmlsidd y Kfsis sneri db tinrb gbyiquibhb ai dns mfmdns imnhkfmns( Ih db sim+mfh tris aisbrrnddbrikns db ixpdfmbmfh ai Gbyil '26=0 \2656[$ 2660 \26=2[& quimndnmb bd mraftn ih id mihtrn aid aiebti sneri dns mfmdns imnhkfmns( Zbrb tirkf+hbr$ sicufrikns bd imnhnkfstb bustrbmn ih sus brcukihtns sneri id afhirn hiutrny db mrtfmb qui afrfci b dns pbrtfabrfns ai db tinrb mubhtftbtfvb aid afhirn(

DB] QINUB] HN KNHIQBUFB] AID MFMDN IMNHKFMN ]ICHGBVIL

Ih id sicuhan mbptudn ai su tixtn QKMI '2656&$ Gbyil prisihtb dbs tinrbshn knhitbrfbs aid mfmdn imnhkfmn( stbs si ebsbh ih db vbrfbmfh ai bmtnrisribdis y mnhvircih ih db ixfstihmfb ai uhb bdtb ai prnpnrmfnhbdfaba ihtri dns

9 Gbyil mnhtfhb su trbebon sneri db tinrb ai dns mfmdns imnhkfmns ih sus dferns Zrn fts$Fhtirist bha Fhvistkiht '26=6& y ih Qgi Zuri Qginry n Mbpftbd '2612&$ pirn ih istibrtmudn hns mnhmihtrbrikns ih db dimturb ai dns tixtns ai 2656 y 26=2(


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afstfhtns simtnris prnaumtfvns( Ih pbrtfmudbr$ id prfkir bspimtn qui si prn+pnhih ixpdfmbr is db prnaummfh ih ixmisn ai dns kiafns ai prnaummfh(

Gbyil afstfhcui ans tfpns ai tinrbs hn knhitbrfbs qui ixpdfmbh dns iimtns aidbs dumtubmfnhis sneri dbs fhaustrfbs prnaumtnrbs ai kiafns ai prnaummfh(Ih prfkir ducbr$ dbs qui vih ih db tmhfmb ai db prnaummfh db mbusb ai uhbukihtn ai db aikbhab ai efihis ai mnhsukn$ dn qui mnhaumi b uh bukihtnridbtfvbkihti kbynr ai db prnaummfh ai kirmbhmbs( V ks baidbhti$ dbs quisnstfihih qui dbs vbrfbmfnhis ai db tbsb ai fhtirs y id vndukih ai db prnaummfhsi aieih b mfrmuhstbhmfbs pbrtfmudbris 'ai mbrmtir hn knhitbrfn&$ ridbtfvbs bdbgnrrn y b db fhvirsfh( Pibkns ai kbhirb ks aitbddbab db prisihtbmfh aiGbyil ai istns ans tfpns ai ixpdfmbmfnhis hn knhitbrfbs aid mfmdn imnhkfmn(

@dumtubmfnhis hn prnpnrmfnhbdis ai db prnaummfh ai kiafns ai prn+aummfh

Istbs tinrbs gbmih riirihmfb bd dbrcn pirnan ai tfikpn qui is himisbrfnaiafmbr pbrb riuhfr id mbpftbd fon qui pirkftfr db ixtihsfh aid prnmisn prn+aumtfvn( Gbyil hns rikfti b dns tixtns ai Btbdfnh '262=& y ai Uneirtsnh'2629&$ y prisihtb id isquikb sfcufihti? mubhan si prnaumi uh bukihtn ai

dbs vihtbs ai efihis ai mnhsukn mbusban pnr uh bukihtn ai db aikbhab npnr uhb riaummfh ai dns mnstis ai prnaummfh$ istn nrfcfhb uh bukihtn ksqui prnpnrmfnhbd ai db prnaummfh ai efihis ai prnaummfh( ]ich istbstinrbs si prnvnmbr uh iimtn bmukudbtfvn ai dns primfns$ pnr dbs vbrfb+mfnhis ai db vihtb ai efihis ai mnhsukn ih dns istbans supirfnris ai dbprnaummfh< is aimfr$ tnab vbrfbmfh ai db aikbhab tihar ducbr ai kbhirbbmukudbtfvb$ b trbvs ai tnabs dbs bsis ai db prnaummfh(

Ai bmuiran mnh istns tfpns ai ixpdfmbmfnhis$ id prnedikb ist ih qui idpirnan qui pbsb aisai id prfhmfpfn aid prnmisn prnaumtfvn gbstb id kn+

kihtn ih qui id prnaumtn tirkfhban ddicb bd kirmban$ is kuy dbrcn( Mubhansurci uh bdbrcbkfihtn aid prnmisn prnaumtfvn$ si fkpfai id bousti prncrisfvnai db prnaummfh ih ridbmfh mnh id mbkefn ai db aikbhab$ b trbvs aidkimbhfskn ai dns primfns( ]i ivfaihmfb uh aisbsi tikpnrbd ihtri db prnaum+mfh ai efihis ai mnhsukn y ai efihis ai prnaummfh(

Dbs fhaustrfbs qui snh fhtihsfvbs ih mbpftbd snh prnpfmfbs b tihir bmukudbmfn+his ixmisfvbs aurbhti dns pirnans ai prnspirfaba$ pnrqui dns piquinsbukihtns snh fkpnsfedis ih isti tfpn ai ikprisbs( Cihirbdkihti$ si bmns+tukerb b btrfeufr id mrimfkfihtn bmidirban ai fhaustrfbs ai kiafns aiprnaummfh b dbs huivbs fhvihmfnhis y aismuerfkfihtns$ pirn pbrb Gbyil$ ih


7/24

DB QINUB AID MFMDN IMNHKFMN AI @UFIAUFMG PNH GBVIL 9=

su tixtn ai 2656$ stb is sdn uhb ai dbs mbusbs pnsfedis aid prnmisnbmukudbtfvn(

Zbrb Gbyil tnabs istbs tinrbs prisihtbh ridbmfnhis qui tfihaih b pirturebr idiqufdferfn imnhkfmn0$ pirn hn ddicbh b sndumfnhbr db prfhmfpbd affmudtba? pnrqu dbs uirzbs qui tfihaih b ristbedimir id iqufdferfn si rividbh tikpnrbdkihtifhi fmbmis y pnr qu sdn ddicbh b bmtubr mubhan yb is aikbsfban tbrai>

]ich Gbyil$ id prnedikb ai istb mnhmipmfh is qui id kimbhfskn ai dnsprimfns bmtb$ sndbkihti$ mubhan dns prnaumtns gbh ddicban bd kirmban( Istikimbhfskn is fkpir imtn mubhan suesfsti uh dbrcn pirnan ai tfikpn ihtri

id prfhmfpfn aid prnmisn ai prnaummfh y db ddicbab aid prnaumtn fhbd bdkirmban( Bs$ dns prnaumtnris hn puiaih nrfihtbr sus prnaummfnhis$ sfhnhfmbkihti mbdmudbhan id vndukih tntbd ai db aikbhab( Bqu$ aisai db mnh+mipmfh ai Gbyil$ ixfstih faibs bdsbs sneri id mnkpnrtbkfihtn ai dnsikprisbrfns i fhmdusn sneri id sfchf fmban aid kimbhfskn ai dns primfns( Dnsqui aifihaih istns puhtns ai vfstb hn mnhsfairbh qui db prnaummfh si kfabih ridbmfh bd vndukih tntbd ai db aikbhab$ sfhn pnr id primfn qui si puiainetihir ih id kirmban( Gbyil is ixpdmftn?

Ih db knairhb imnhnkb ai mbkefn$ id ikprisbrfn hn prnaumi mnh vfstbsb sbtfsbmir uhb aikbhab aitirkfhbab$ sfhn sneri db ebsi ai mbdmudbr ideihifmfn$ y is oustbkihti isti mdmudn dn qui iqufdferb db nirtb y db ai+kbhab 'Gbyil 26=0 \2656[$ 32&(

Uibdkihti$ id ikprisbrfn ebsb su aimfsfh sneri id primfn qui pnarb neti+hir aispus ai qui gbyb tihfan ducbr id fhtirmbkefn ih id kirmban( Istiprimfn riprisihtb uhn ai dns bmtnris qui aitirkfhbh db ixtihsfh ai db prn+aummfh$ pirn ixfstih ntrns bmtnris qui db aitirkfhbh$ mnkn id primfn qui idprnaumtnr aiei pbcbr pnr dbs kbtirfbs prfkbs$ id bmtnr trbebon y id mbpftbdpristban$ is aimfr$ sus mnstns( Ih isti sihtfan$ dns ans primfns si aieih mnkpb+rbr pbrb aitirkfhbr id vndukih ai prnaummfh ai dns bcihtis ih mnkpitihmfb(

]fh ikebrcn$ pnr qu dns primfns hn bmtbh ai knan qui dbs mbhtfabaisprnaumfabs si knaffquih ai uhb kbhirb n ai ntrb$ mnh id fh ai pnairddicbr bd iqufdferfn$ mnkn dn mnhmfei db tinrb aid iqufdferfn isttfmn> Znr quhn$ sf `fhbdkihti id supuistn aid mubd tihikns qui pbrtfr is sfikpri uhprimfn qui gbcb rihtbedi$ aihtrn ai dbs huivbs mnhafmfnhis$ db bkpdfbmfh aidprnmisn ai prnaummfh> 'Gbyil 26=0 \2656[$ 3=&(

0 Pir Brihb '2666&(


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Zbrb mrftfmbr isti bhdfsfs$ Gbyil b frkb$ pnr uhb pbrti$ qui db sfkpdi ixfstih+mfb ai uh dbrcn pirnan ai prnaummfh hn puiai fkpiafr id uhmfnhbkfihtnaid kimbhfskn ai primfns 'Gbyil 26=0 \2656[$ 31& y$ pnr ntrb$ bbai ihZrimfns yprnaummfh 'ih baidbhti ZZ&$ qui db trbhsfmfh gbmfb prnmisns kserivis sir bmnkpbban ricudbrkihti ai uhb mrfsfs ai prnaummfh 'Gbyil2660 \26=2[$ 77&( Gbyil snstfihi qui sf id primfn qui si netfihi pbrb id prn+aumtn tirkfhban si mbdmudb efih$ ihtnhmis id bousti ai dns primfns ai dns`bmtnris ai prnaummfh aiei cbrbhtfzbr qui db mbhtfaba prnaumfab si ihmuih+tri dfkftbab b dn qui puiai vihairsi(

Pbrfbmfnhis aid bgnrrn y db fhvirsfh aiefabs b mbusbs ribdisIstbs tinrbs hn knhitbrfbs pbrtih ai db primnhmipmfh$ hn uhabab i fhba+kfsfedi pbrb Gbyil$ qui id bgnrrn hn fhvirtfan si bmukudb aurbhti bdchtfikpn y duicn si fhyimtb ripihtfhbkihti ih db imnhnkb$ mbusbhan uhb ix+pdnsfh ih id sfstikb prnaumtfvn( Znr uhb pbrti$ pbrb Gbyil is af mfdmnkprihair pnr qu sirb himisbrfn bmukudbr id bgnrrn afspnhfedi aurbhtiuh pirnan ai tfikpn y$ pnr ntrb$ buhqui si oustffmbrb istb bmdbrbmfh$ istnhn ixpdfmb id bukihtn aisprnpnrmfnhban ai dns kiafns ai prnaummfh( BquGbyil mftb b ]pfitgn '2659&? ]f dns mbpftbdfstbs y dns prnaumtnris ai brtmu+

dns ai mnhsukn fhkiafbtn aisibh kbhtihir su prnaummfh ih prnpnrmfhmnh db nirtb ai mbpftbd baqufsftfvn$ bkens prnmisns aieih sir boustbans iduhn bd ntrn mnhmfihzuabkihti 'Gbyil 26=0 \2656[$ 36&3(

Db mribmfh aid bgnrrn is fhaipihafihti ai db prnaummfh ai efihis y ai ki+afns ai prnaummfh( Znr dn tbhtn$ stb puiai prnaumfrsi sfh qui id ikprisbrfnsipb mkn is id bgnrrn y su afspnsfmfh b sir fhvirtfan( ]f si bsuki isti ihn+qui$ si istbrb bebhanhbhan id prfhmfpfn sich id mubd id vndukih ai prnaummfhsi mnhtrndb crbmfbs b db aitirkfhbmfh ai dns primfns ridbtfvns( Zbrb Gbyil ishimisbrfn trbtbr ai rispnhair b db sfcufihti pricuhtb? pnr qu dns primfns$ y ih

pbrtfmudbr$ id primfn aid mbpftbd qui is db tbsb ai fhtirs$ hn ricudbh id vndukihai db prnaummfh> Istn$ sbefihan qui db prnaummfh hn si ricudb sneri db ebsiai db aikbhab$ sfhn sneri db aitirkfhbmfh ai dns primfns(

3 Db kfskb mnhmipmfh cihirbd gb sfan aispus ixpuistb pnr Kr( O(K( Liyhis ihafvirsns pbsbois ai suQribtfsinh Knhiy'26=:& \[? Hn ixfsti ribdkihti pnsfefdfaba aiuhb privfsfh fhtidfcihti qui fcubdi id bgnrrn y db fhvirsfh mnkn hn sib ribdfzbab pnr idsfstikb ebhmbrfn 'Gbyil 26=0 \2656[$ 36&( Isti tixtn `ui bbafan pnr Gbyil ih dbiafmfh ih fhcds '26==& aid tixtn ih bdikh ai 2656( Id Zrn`isnr Gbhsonirc Ldbusfhcir$


9/24


Mbssid '2653& tbkefh si fhsmrfei ihtri dns pbrtfabrfns ai dbs tinrbs hn kn+hitbrfbs aid mfmdn imnhkfmn( Uispimtn b db ri irihmfb qui gbmi Gbyil$ stiixpdfmb qui tnab afsmnrabhmfb ihtri id bgnrrn y db fhvirsfh aiei oustffmbrsi btrbvs aid kbd ùhmfnhbkfihtn aid kimbhfskn ai db tbsb ai fhtirs$ qui sichGbyil$ hnrkbdkihti aieirb pirkftfr fcubdbr id bgnrrn y db fhvirsfh(

Gbyil riprnmgb b isti bhdfsfs id gimgn ai ebsbr su brcukihtbmfh sneri dbsfkpdi knaffmbmfh ai dbs mnhafmfnhis imnhkfmbs fhfmfbdis$ dn mubd hn bb+ai hfhcuhb ixpdfmbmfh b dbs tinrbs ai dns mfmdns imnhkfmns( Bfrkb qui dbbpbrfmfh ai pirturebmfnhis aid iqufdferfn hn is uh prnedikb pbrb db tinrbai dns mfmdns$ pirn s id gimgn ai qui si ddicui b sti b trbvs ai uhb sirfi ai

ribmmfnhis qui hn puiaih mnhsfairbrsi mnkn boustis ih id sihtfan usubd ai dbtinrb aid iqufdferfn imnhkfmn(

Id virabairn prnedikb$ sich Gbyil$ is qui bpbrimih `dumtubmfnhisaisprnpnrmfnhbabs ai dbs fhaustrfbs prnaumtnrbs ai dns kiafns ai prnaum+mfh$ b pbrtfr ai dbs nsmfdbmfnhis fhivftbedis i frricudbris aid ristn aid sfstikbimnhkfmn( ]ich Gbyil id ìhkihn hn si bmdbrb kfihtrbs hn si ixpdfquipnr qu su mbusb$ sib mubd sib$ hn prnvnmb uh mnhtfhun prnmisn ai iqufdf+erfn 'Gbyil 26=0 \2656[$ 09&(

Zbrb qui Gbyil y ]mgukpitir puiabh mnhsfairbr vdfab db ixpdfmbmfh aidmfmdn is himisbrfn fhafmbr pnr qu dn qui prnauon db dumtubmfh hn mbusb$ aifcubd nrkb$ uh prnmisn mnhtfhun ai bousti gbmfb id iqufdferfn( Zbrb Gbyil$hnrkbdkihti id kimbhfskn ai primfns aiei fkpiafr id mfmdn( Ih su knaidn$id kirmban is butnrricudbanr$ dns primfns snh uhb vbrfbedi ai bousti y bqui+ddns qui pirkftih id bousti sirh sfikpri dns primfns ai iqufdferfn(

]ich istbs tinrbs hn knhitbrfbs$ gby uh knkihtn ih qui id kimbhfskn aiprimfns hn ùhmfnhb ks$ ihtnhmis$ db aikbhab puiai sbtfs bmirsi b uh pri+mfn qui db nirtb afspnhfedi hn puiai prnpnrmfnhbr$ pnr dn tbhtn$ bpbrimiuh huivn istban ai fhaitirkfhbmfh ih id mubd puiaih prnaumfrsi aisvfbmfn+his qui si bdiobh aid iqufdferfn( \[ Is primfsbkihti id kbhion ai db tbsb aifhtirs$ id primfn aid mraftn$ dn qui gbmi pnsfedi isbs pirturebmfnhis ih dbnrkbmfh ai dns primfns 'Gbyil 26=0 \2656[$ 71&(

Gbyil riutb dbs tinrbs hn knhitbrfbs ai dns mfmdns imnhkfmns yb qui$ si+ch d$ dns mgnquis si mnrrfcih butnktfmbkihti y istn hn quiab mdbrn ih

qufih pripbrb db riiafmfh ai isti tixtn ih fhcds$ kuistrb dbs afirihmfbs ihtri db virsfhnrfcfhbd ai db QKMI ai 2656 y db trbaummfh bd fhcds ai 26==$ stb is uhb kuistrb(


10/24


afmgbs tinrbs( Fcubdkihti$ hn ixpdfmbh pnr qu$ trbs uh mgnqui$ db sftubmfhhn si ristbedimi b trbvs aid kimbhfskn ai dns primfns y pnr qu hn siritnrhb$ butnktfmbkihti$ bd iqufdferfn( ]fh ikebrcn$ ih su tinrb$ d ritnkbid mbrmtir ai db aisprnpnrmfh qui aistbmbh$ ispimfbdkihti$ dbs tinrbsribdis aid mfmdn imnhkfmn7(

Db mrtfmb qui afrfci b dbs tinrbs hn knhitbrfbs aid mfmdn imnhkfmn is db fhtrn+aummfh ai rfcfaimis< sfh ikebrcn$ stbs bpbrimih ih su prnpfb tinrb 'Gbyilsupnhi qui hn gby rfcfaimis$ pirn si puiai knstrbr qui s dbs gby&6( Id brcu+kihtn mnh rispimtn b db vbrfbmfh ai db tmhfmb ai prnaummfh hn is sufmfihti(]ich isti butnr$ dns ikprisbrfns vbh b mnrricfr db aisprnpnrmfh pbrb rihbr

id mfmdn$ pirn id aiimtn ai dbs tinrbs ribdis is qui hn ixpdfmbh mkn si gbr(

B isti rispimtn$ pbrimi pirtfhihti kihmfnhbr db fhmnkpbtfefdfaba suerbybabpnr Mbrdn Eihittf$ qufih risuki db rispuistb ai Gbyil b db mrtfmb gimgb pnr]rb b 'Gbyil 26=5$ 5=7&$ ih ans pnsfefdfabais( Db prfkirb pnsfefdfaba 'f& siri firi bd gimgn ai qui gby uhb tihaihmfb fhgirihti bd iqufdferfn aid sfstikbimnhkfmn$ sfikpri qui si aioih ai dban dns bmtnris knhitbrfns( Mnknmnhsimuihmfb$ sf si sfcui istb prnpnsfmfh$ si istuafbrh sndbkihti dns iimtnsai uh mgnqui ribd( Db prnpuistb 'ff& b frkb qui hn si puiai ixpdfmbr id ais+iqufdferfn aid sfstikb sfh tnkbr ih muihtb dbs mbusbs knhitbrfbs(

Eihittf ixfci ai db tinrb ai Gbyil qui?

((( n si bmiptb db prnpuistb 'f&$ y ih isti mbsn hfhch aisiqufdferfn virabai+rn mbusban pnr `bmtnris knhitbrfns puiai bpbrimir< n si bmiptb db prnpuistb'ff&$ is aimfr$ si bhbdfzb id prnmisn qui mnhaumi bd aisiqufdferfn aiefan bbmtnris knhitbrfns$ pirn ihtnhmis is himisbrfn rihuhmfbr b db mriihmfb ihdb tihaihmfb bd iqufdferfn b frkbab pnr db prnpuistb 'f& 'Eihittf 2669$ 09$trba( aid butnr&(

Ai dn qui primiai$ d mnhmduyi qui db npnsfmfh ihtri id bousti ribd y id

aisbousti knhitbrfn hn puiai netihirsi sfhn b trbvs ai ans bhdfsfs kutub+kihti mnhtrbafmtnrfns aid kfskn sfstikb imnhkfmn 'Eihittf 2669$ 09&( Gibqu db mrtfmb qui Eihittf afrfci b Gbyil(

7 Db faib ai db bdtb ai prnpnrmfh is aisbrrnddbab bkpdfbkihti pnr Gbyil ih ZZ(6 ]i trbtb ai uhb rfcfaiz timhndcfmb$ aban qui hn si puiai pbsbr mfdkihti ai uhb rbkb

ai db prnaummfh gbmfb ntrb? hn is dn kfskn prnaumfr mbkfsbs qui trfcn( Gby uhb gfptisfsmnh rispimtn b dbs antbmfnhis ai timhndncb ih db tinrb ai dns mfmdns ai Gbyil qui ixpdfmbpnr qu hn gby ritnrhn bd iqufdferfn trbs uh mgnqui knhitbrfn(


11/24


Mubhan si bhbdfzbh dns iimtns ai uh mgnqui ribd si mnhstbtbh dbs knaf fmb+mfnhis ai dns primfns ridbtfvns qui fkpdfmbh uh aispdbzbkfihtn ai efihis$ btrbvs ai dbs afstfhtbs bsis ai db prnaummfh( Gbyil faihtffmb id prnedikbaid mbrmtir ispimfmn ai dns efihis< db trbhsirihmfb ai efihis ispimfmns'qui hn puiaih utfdfzbrsi sfhn ih uhb hfmb `bsi ai db prnaummfh n$ b dnsukn$ ih uh riaumfan hkirn ai `bsis& n hn ispim fmns 'qui si puiaihutfdfzbr ih tnabs n$ bd kihns$ ih hukirnsbs bsis ai db prnaummfh& si ribdfzbai kbhirb af irihti sich id tfpn ai efih( ]fh ikebrcn$ pbrb aiihair dbtihaihmfb ispnhthib bd iqufdferfn aispus ai uh mgnqui ribd$ Gbyil kuistrbqui$ fhmdusn sf gby afspbrfabais tikpnrbdis ihtri db n irtb y db aikbhab$ id

kimbhfskn ai dns primfns ridbtfvns sir su fmfihtikihti uirti pbrb supirbrtnab mdbsi ai nestmudns(

Bd mnhtrbrfn$ sf si trbtb ai uh mgnqui ai nrfcih knhitbrfn$ id huivn iqufdf+erfn is fhistbedi y$ pnr tbhtn$ id sfstikb mnrri id rfiscn ai mbir ih uhb mrfsfsimnhkfmb( Id kimbhfskn ai dns primfns ridbtfvns 'qui uhmfnhb mubhan idmgnqui is ribd& hn `uhmfnhb mubhan id mgnqui is knhitbrfn( Ih isti dtfknmbsn$ gby nestmudns mnkn db af fmudtba ai knvfdfaba ai dns bmtnris aiprnaummfh qui istbebh busihtis ih su ixpdfmbmfh ai dns mgnquis ribdis(

Hn nestbhti$ is fkpnrtbhti risbdtbr qui Gbyil utfdfzb ih ZZ brcukihtns pu+

rbkihti tmhfmns y sneri tnan ixpdbhbmfnhis ai tfpn ribd$ mnkn rbznhispbrb ixpdfmbr id ihkihn ai dbs mrfsfs$ kfihtrbs qui ih QKMI dbs mbusbs aidns mfmdns snh ks efih knhitbrfbs(

DB] QINUB] KNHIQBUFB] AID MFMDN IMNHKFMN ]ICHGBVIL

Yhb kfrbab bd pbsban hns gbmi aismuerfr qui$ cihirbdkihti$ pbrb dbs ixpdfmb+mfnhis knhitbrfbs aid mfmdn imnhkfmn$ dbs dumtubmfnhis aipihabh ai dbsvbrfbmfnhis ih id vbdnr aid afhirn2:( Ih isti kbrmn$ Gbyil kihmfnhb ih ZZ dns

trbebons pfnhirns ai Qgnrhtnh '27:5&$ b qufih rimnhnmi uhb ai dbs ks hntb+edis mnhtrfeumfnhis b db tinrb knhitbrfb( Id butnr bustrbmn kihmfnhb$ tbkefh$b Ufmbran '2752& gbmfihan uhb erivi riirihmfb b su tinrb ai tbsbs ai fhtirs(

Ih isb dhib$ Gbyil rimuirab db ixfstihmfb ai dns trbebons ai Kbrsgbdd '2732 y2773&$ id N fmfbds Zbpirsy su dfern pnstirfnr sneriKnhiy$ Mriaft bha Mnkkirmi$ y

2: Zbrb prnuhafzbr ih id bhdfsfs rispimtn b dbs tinrbs knhitbrfbs ai mfmdns imnhkfmns vir?]gbmldi '26==& y Cbrrfsnh '5::2&( ]neri dbs tinrbs priliyhisfbhbs qui ixpdfmbh dnsmfmdns vir Uieiyrnd '2677&(


12/24


gbmi riirihmfb ispimfbdkihti b Sfmlsidd '2767&$ bdicbhan qui isti dtfkn hntuvn ih su pnmb db afusfh kirimfab$ aiefan b dns ritrbsns ih dbs trbaummfn+his y iafmfnhis ai su nerb$ b pisbr ai iddn$ ui qufih prnpusn fhticrbr dbpndtfmb aid mraftn ai dns ebhmns b db tinrb ai dns mfmdns( Znr dtfkn$ si rifirib Kfsis '2625& mnkn uhb ai sus uihtis ai fhspfrbmfh ih tinrb knhitbrfb y$ih pbrtfmudbr$ ih db tinrb aid mfmdn imnhkfmn22(

Gbyil ismrfei25?

Zbrb id neoitfvn ai isti istuafn hn is himisbrfn ritrnmiair b dns prfkirnsriprisihtbhtis ai isti crupn< ebstb mnhsfairbr dbs mnhmipmfnhis ai Sfmlsidd

y Kfsis$ puistn qui tbhtn dns rimfihtis prncrisns iimtubans mnkn dnsirrnris qui bh suesfstih puiaih sir kionr bhbdfzbans sneri db ebsi aiisns istuafns 'Gbyil 26=0 \2656[$66&(

]ich Gbyil$ id prnisnr Kfsis ribdfz uh crbh prncrisn ih ridbmfh mnh dbpnsfmfh ai Sfmlsidd sneri id bhdfsfs ai dns iimtns ai uhb afirihmfb ihtri dbtbsb ai fhtirs knhitbrfn y db tbsb ai fhtirs hbturbd( Bgnrb efih$ Sfmlsidd `uiks dions qui Kfsis ih mubhtn b db ixpdfmbmfh sneri id nrfcih ai istbs afvir+cihmfbs( Znr uhb pbrti$ Gbyil rimnhnmi b su kbistrn Kfsis qui ih dn ridbtfvnb db tinrb aid afhirn 'ih tbhtn qui afirihti ai db tinrb purb aid mbpftbd&$ dbnerb qui prnpnrmfnhb id kbrmn ih id qui gi prnmurban idbenrbr uh puhtnispimfbd is db aid prn isnr Kfsis$ kumgn ks qui db ai Lhut Sfmlsidd 'Gbyil2660 \26=2[$ 5=&( Znr ntrb pbrti$ d rimnhnmi db fhduihmfb aid imnhnkfstbsuimn ih id prnmisn ai nrkbmfh ai su prnpfb tinrb knhitbrfb?

Buhqui yn mrin qui ih id bhdfsfs ai dns iimtns ai db afirihmfb ihtri db tbsbai fhtirs knhitbrfb y db tbsb hbturbd$ id prnissnr Kfsis gb ribdfzban uhmnhsfairbedi prncrisn mnh rispimtn b db pnsfmfh ai Sfmlsidd$ isti dtfknbmirt kionr qui Kfsis bd ixpdfmbr id nrfcih ai afmgb afvircihmfb( Ks bai+dbhti bgnhabrikns ih db ixpdfmbmfh ai Sfmlsidd 'Gbyil 26=0 \2656[$252&(

Pibkns mnh aitbddi db fhduihmfb ai dbs tinrbs ai Sfmlsidd y Kfsis sneri dbtinrb ai dns mfmdns ai Gbyil(

22 Yhn ai dns vhmudns ihtri db QKMI y ZZ is db fh duihmfb ai Sfmlsidd y Kfsis ih idpihsbkfihtn knhitbrfn ai Gbyil qui ist prisihti ih dns ans tixtns( Zbrb bgnhabr ih idtikb ai dbs uihtis fhtidimtubdis ai db tinrb ai mfmdns ai Gbyil vir Anstbdir '2661&(

25 Aiscrbmfbabkihti pbrb hnsntrns$ fhtirisbans ih id istuafn ai db gfstnrfb aid pihsbkfihtnimnhkfmn$ Gbyil aimfaf hn riknhtbr ks dions ih id tfikpn y hn prnuhafz ih dnstrbebons ai Qgnrhtnh y Ufmbran( Istn gberb pnafan byuabrhns b aismf rbr y mnkprihairai uhb kbhirb ks mdbrb y pirspfmbz id pihsbkfihtn knhitbrfn ai Gbyil$ bs mnkn dbfh duihmfb ai dns imnhnkfstbs fhcdisis ih sus tinrbs( Gbyil si fhspfr sneri tnan ih dnstrbebons ai Sfmlsidd y Kfsis pbrb idbenrbr su prnpfb tinrb knhitbrfb(


13/24


Uipirmusfnhis ai Sfmlsidd sneri id onvih Gbyil

Db tinrb ai Sfmlsidd ai dbs tbsbs ai fhtirs puiai risukfrsi bs? ixfsti uhbtbsb ai fhtirs hbturbd 'fh& supnhfihan qui hn ixfstih pirturebmfnhis kn+hitbrfbs qui pirkfti fcubdbr db aikbhab y db nirtb ai bgnrrn2=( Bgnrbefih$ ih uhb imnhnkb knhitbrfb$ gby uhb tbsb ai fhtirs knhitbrfb 'fk&qui puiai sir af irihti ai db tbsb ai fhtirs hbturbd$ yb qui db aikbhab ynirtb ai mbpftbd hn si ihmuihtrbh ih su nrkb hbturbd sfhn ih nrkb aiafhirn$ y db mbhtfaba ai afhirn afspnhfedi pbrb neoitfvns ai mbpftbd puiaisir knaf fmbab breftrbrfbkihti pnr dns ebhmns 'Gbyil 2660 \26=2[$ =6&(

]u tinrb ixpdfmb qui sf si qufiri qui db tbsb ai fhtirs sib hiutrb y qui hnfhtirfirb sneri dns primfns ai dns efihis$ is himisbrfn qui db tbsb ai fhtirsknhitbrfb sib fcubd b db tbsb ai fhtirs hbturbd( Ih mbsn ai qui dns ebhmnsaimfafirbh bukihtbr db mfrmudbmfh 'n qui db butnrfaba knhitbrfbfhmrikihtbsi db mbhtfaba ai afhirn afspnhfedi ai dns ebhmns pbrb abr mr+aftns&$ stns vbh b riaumfr 'fk& pnr aiebon ai 'fh& pbrb btrbir b dnspristbkfstbs$ aban uh bukihtn ai dns primfns knhitbrfns ai dns efihis( Bdkfskn tfikpn$ uhb kbynr nirtb ai afhirn tihairb b afskfhufr su vbdnr ysi prisihtbrb uhb fhdbmfh cihirbd ai dns primfns aurbhti isti prnmisn( ]fdb butnrfaba knhitbrfb n dns ebhmns mnhtfhbh bukihtbhan db nirtb kn+

hitbrfb ih mbab pirnan$ id risudtban sir dn qui si mnhnmi mnkn uhprnmisn bmukudbtfvn ai dns primfns(

Gbstb isti puhtn Gbyil ist ai bmuiran mnh Sfmlsidd? id gimgn ai qui 'fk&sib fcubd b 'fh& fkpdfmb qui id hfvid ai dns primfns si kbhtfihi mnhstbhti yqui ih tbdis mnhafmfnhis hn gby mbusbs knhitbrfbsqui tfihabh b cihirbr uhmbkefn ih id hfvid ai dns primfns 'Gbyil 2660 \26=2[$ =6+1:&( Id knkih+tn ih qui si sipbrb ai su mndicb suimn is mubhan isti dtfkn mnhmduyi quisf dbs ans tbsbs ai fhtirs hn mnfhmfaih$ id hfvid cihirbd ai dns primfns siknaffmb ih uhb prnpnrmfh mnhstbhti( ]ich Gbyil$ hn si puiai sbeir

muhtn vbh b mbkefbr dns primfns ridbtfvns aispus ai uhb afskfhumfh nai uh fhmrikihtn ai 'fk&21(

2= Db tbsb ai fhtirs hbturbd is bquiddb qui fcubdb db aikbhab ai prstbkns b db n irtb aibgnrrn n db tbsb ai fhtirs qui si ihmnhtrbrb ih id kirmban sf hn ixfstfisi hfhcuhbtrbhsbmmfh knhitbrfb y sf id mbpftbd ribd si guefisi pristban fh hbturi'Sfmlsidd 26=0\2767[$ 6=< mftban pnr Gbyil 26=0 \2656[$ 203&(

21 B isti rispimtn$ Gbyil kuistrb qui ih id knaidn ai Sfmlsidd$ pbrb qui id hfvid ai dnsprimfns hn si knaf fqui$ db mbhtfaba ai afhirn aiei mbkefbr ih db kfskb prnpnrmfh quidb prnaummfh( Baiks$ dns ebhmns puiaih kbhtihir db nirtb ai bgnrrn istbedi n id hfvidai dns primfns istbedi$ pirn hn dns ans sfkudthibkihti(


14/24


Gbyil kuistrb qui db fhduihmfb aid afhirn sneri dns primfns ridbtfvns y db prn+aummfh is fhaipihafihti ai dns iimtns sneri id hfvid cihirbd ai dns primfns(Mubdqufir mbkefn ih db mbhtfaba ai afhirn aiei$ himisbrfbkihti$ bimtbr dnsprimfns ridbtfvns y db prnaummfh$ pirn isti mbkefn puiai n hn tihir fh duihmfbsneri id hfvid cihirbd ai dns primfns( Ih isti puhtn$ Gbyil kuistrb su bavirsf+aba mnh rispimtn b dbs tinrbs mubhtftbtfvbs aid afhirn$ bfrkbhan qui?

ih uh uturn prxfkn$ db tinrb knhitbrfb hn sdn rimgbzbr db ixpdfmbmfhih trkfhns ai uhb ridbmfh afrimtb ihtri id afhirn y id hfvid ai primfns$ sfhnqui fhmdusn brrnobr pnr db enrab id mnhmiptn ai uh hfvid cihirbd ai primfnsy dn riikpdbzbr pnr fhvistfcbmfnhis sneri dbs mbusbs ai dns mbkefns ih dns

primfns ridbtfvns y sus iimtns sneri db prnaummfh 'Gbyil 2660 \26=2[$ 1=&(Ih ribdfaba$ Sfmlsidd hn si prnpusn aisbrrnddbr uhb tinrb aid mfmdn? hnaiihaf uhb tinrb ai dns mfmdns knhitbrfns mnkn tbkpnmn aiihaf uhbtinrb ai db tbsb ai fhtirs knhitbrfn ']mgukpitir 2632 \2691[$ 570&( ]fhikebrcn$ ebstb mnh gbmir bdcuhns ritnquis b db tinrb aid prnmisn bmukudbtfvnai Sfmlsidd pbrb qui si puiab ixtrbir uhb tinrb aid mfmdn imnhkfmn(

Uipirmusfnhis ai Kfsis sneri id onvih Gbyil

]f Gbyil gfzn suyb uhb euihb pbrti aid bhdfsfs ai Sfmlsidd$ b hfvid knhitbrfn$d si bprnpf prfhmfpbdkihti aid bhdfsfs ai Kfsis29$ prnuhafzhandn y ridb+mfnhhandn mnh id aid imnhnkfstb suimn( Mnkn Kfsis$ Gbyil pihsbeb qui idprnmisn bmukudbtfvn fhaumfan pnr db ixtihsfh aid mraftn$ id mubd mnhaumi bfhvirsfnhis iqufvnmbabs$ tirkfhb fhivftbedikihti pnr aitihirsi( ]i fhtirrukpimubhan db tbsb ai fhtirs knhitbrfn fcubdb db tbsb ai fhtirs ribd(

Zbrb Kfsis$ dns kimbhfskns ai mribmfh knhitbrfb fhtrnaumih pirturebmfnhispirkbhihtis ih id `uhmfnhbkfihtn ai dns kirmbans( ]ich d$ id afhirn hn ishuhmb hiutrn( Gbyil ixtihaf dns risudtbans netihfans pnr su bhtimisnr$ bgnh+

abhan ih id bhdfsfs aid sfstikb ai primfns ridbtfvns y ai db istrumturb ai prnaummfh(Ih su dfern Knhitbry bha Mriaft Qginry '2625&$ Kfsis bmipt crnssnknan dnsbrcukihtns ai Sfmlsidd ai dns iimtns ai db ixpbhsfh knhitbrfb sneri dbprnaummfh y dns primfns( ]fh ikebrcn$ d gfzn prncrisbr dbs faibs wfmlsiddfbhbsknstrbhan id prnmisn b trbvs aid mubd uhb ixpbhsfh knhitbrfb ai isti tfpn$cihirb uhb mrfsfs imnhkfmb y uhb sirfi ai ihkihns mnhnmfans ebon idhnkeri ai mfmdn imnhkfmn(

29 Pir Knss '2630& y Guirtb ai ]ntn '2667&(


15/24


Kfsis tbkefh supusn qui db butnrfaba knhitbrfb tfihi id pnair ai fh dufrsneri db nirtb ai afhirn$ mribhan mraftn( ]ich Kfsis db mribmfh ai kiafns`faumfbrfns pirkfti bd ebhmn ai bukihtbr dbs mbhtfabais ai afhirn pristbabs ybd kfskn tfikpn di ab db pnsfefdfaba ai mnhmiair mraftns qui sneripbsbh dnsdkftis ai su prnpfn afhirn n id qui sus mdfihtis di gbybh ihtricban ih aipsftn(

]ich Ubvfir '5::0& db aikbhab ai prnaumtns tirkfhbans bukihtb ih dbkfskb prnpnrmfh qui db n irtb supdikihtbrfb ai afhirn( Db aikbhab su+pdikihtbrfb ai mraftn himisbrfb pbrb sicufr istns prnyimtns ioirmi uhb prisfhb db bdzb ai db tbsb ai fhtirs y isti fhmrikihtn si mnhvfirti ih uh mbtbdfzbanrai db mrfsfs ih dns simtnris ai dns efihis ai fhvirsfh( Db bsi pnsftfvb aid mfmdn

imnhkfmn ddicb b su trkfhn y ab pbsn b uhb mnhtrbmmfh n fhmdusn b uhbaiprisfh$ b kiafab qui si vbh suspihafihan dns prnyimtns ai fhvirsfh(Istns prnyimtns mnstnsns si rividbh imnhkfmbkihti fhsnstihfedis$ db hfmbkbhirb ai rimupirbr istns prnyimtns sirb uh huivn bukihtn ai db n irtb aiafhirn pnr aimfsfh ai dbs butnrfabais knhitbrfbs( Zirn tbd aimfsfh ripitfrbid prnmisn bhtirfnr fhfhftbkihti( ]f db butnrfaba knhitbrfb prnsfcui bmrimih+tbhan db nirtb ai afhirn$ si aisikenmbrb ih uhb fhdbmfh fhmnhtrndbediqui$ b dbrcn pdbzn$ bkihbzbrb id mnhouhtn aid sfstikb knhitbrfn(

B trbvs ai isti bhdfsfs$ Kfsis '2672 \2625[& ddicb b db mnhmdusfh qui dbsmbusbs aid mfmdn imnhkfmn hn gby qui eusmbrdbs ih uhb gfpnttfmb afsuhmfhai db imnhnkb ai kirmban( Ih dtfkb fhstbhmfb$ db mbusb prfhmfpbd si ihmuih+trb ih db kbhfpudbmfh aid afhirn y aid mraftn pnr dbs butnrfabais knhitbrfbs(Znr mnhsfcufihti$ Kfsis is qufih ai nrkb ks afrimtb bpnrtb b Gbyil uhbtinrb knhitbrfb ai dns mfmdns$ knstrbhan db fhduihmfb qui db tbsb ai fhtirspuiai ioirmir sneri dns primfns ridbtfvns(

DB QINUB GBVIRYIBHB AID MFMDN IMNHKFMN

Gbyil fcurb ihtri dns imnhnkfstbs qui btrfeuyih dbs dumtubmfnhis mmdfmbs b uhb

mbusb knhitbrfb( Zirn$ b af irihmfb ai db kbynrb ai dbs prfhmfpbdis tinrbs knhi+tbrfbs aid mfmdn imnhkfmn qui si ebsbh ih db gfptisfs ai qui id afhirn fh duyi ihdb vfab imnhkfmb$ b trbvs aid hfvid cihirbd ai dns primfns$ Gbyil hn si prinmupbpnr dns iimtns aid mraftn sneri id hfvid ai primfns sfhn pnr dns iimtns sneri dnsprimfns ridbtfvns ai dbs kirmbhmbs y sneri db afstrfeumfh ai db prnaummfh ihtriefihis ai prnaummfh y efihis ai mnhsukn? iimtns ribdis aid mfmdn imnhkfmn20(

20 ]ich Gbyil$ dns mfmdns imnhkfmns snh mbusbans pnr bmtnris knhitbrfns$ pirn tfihihmnkn mnhsimuihmfbs iimtns ribdis sneri db istrumturb ai primfns ridbtfvns ai db imnhn+kb? uhb pirturebmfh aid iqufdferfn ai dns primfns prnvnmb$ himisbrfbkihti$ mbkefns ihdb istrumturb ai db prnaummfh(


16/24


Zbrb Gbyil is fkpnrtbhti mrftfmbr b dns pbrtfabrfns ai db istbefdfaba aid hfvidcihirbd ai primfns( Znr istb rbzh$ bprnvimgb db nmbsfh pbrb btbmbr b dns aiih+snris ai dbs tinrbs knhitbrfbs aid mfmdn imnhkfmn$ b frkbhan qui? mubhangby uh bukihtn ai db mbhtfaba ai afhirn$ gby uhb vbrfbmfh ai dns primfnsridbtfvns( Znr ioikpdn$ pbrb Gbyil$ Sfmlsidd hn rimnhnmf id pnair ai dns bm+tnris knhitbrfns pbrb rnkpir id sfstikb ai iqufdferfn ai db imnhnkb ai truiqui$ks bdd ai tnab vbrfbmfh aid hfvid cihirbd ai dns primfns( B su knan ai vir$Sfmlsidd pirkbhimf prisn ai db trbkpb aid hfvid cihirbd ai dns primfns( Ihmbkefn$ Gbyil mrib himisbrfn nesirvbr dns primfns ridbtfvns 'mnkn dns butnrismdsfmns&$ is aimfr$ db ridbmfh ai ans primfns ixprisbans ih afhirn 'ih uhfabais

knhitbrfbs&( B frkb qui id afhirn pirtureb id iqufdferfn b trbvs aid bukihtnai dns primfns ridbtfvns prnvnmbans pnr uhb ixpbhsfh mriaftfmfb(

Is fkpnrtbhti rimnhnmir qui sus fhvistfcbmfnhis$ bd gbmir gfhmbpf ih dns primfnsridbtfvns$ mnhsfcuih uhb huivb nrkudbmfh ai db tinrb ai dns mfmdns$ pirkftfihanuhb ivndumfh ai dbs faibs mubhtftbtfvfstbs ai isi knkihtn( Ih cihirbd$ istbstinrbs mnhmiabh uh ducbr kihnr b dbs afstnrsfnhis bakftfabs pnr id bpbrbtnprnaumtfvn aurbhti dns prnmisns mmdfmns( ]ich Gbyil dns mbkefns ih db mbhtfabaai afhirn ai db imnhnkb hn snh$ sndbkihti$ db mnhsimuihmfb ai fhtirvihmfnhisai dbs butnrfabais knhitbrfbs mnkn dn bsukih db kbynr pbrti ai tinrbs knhi+tbrfbs aid mfmdn imnhkfmn( Zbrb Gbyil dbs vbrfbmfnhis ai db nirtb ai afhirn snhuh iimtn fhkbhihti ai db nrcbhfzbmfh aid mraftn( Ih isti sihtfan db tinrb aiGbyil eusmb sir uhb tinrb ihacihb mnkn db ai Sfmlsidd(

Id nrfcih ai dns mfmdns imnhkfmns$ sich Gbyil$ b sikiobhzb ai Sfmlsidd$aiei eusmbrsi ih id af irihmfbd ihtri db tbsb ai fhtirs hbturbd y db tbsb aifhtirs knhitbrfn( Isti risfaun ihtri dbs ans tbsbs ai fhtirs is pnsfedi crbmfbsb db idbstfmfaba aid mraftn ebhmbrfn23(

@fhbdkihti$ Gbyil fhtihtb riuhfr dbs mnhsimuihmfbs aid aisihmbaihbkfihtnaid mfmdn imnhkfmn? prfkirn$ tbrai n tikprbhn bpbrimih dbs ristrfmmfnhis

aid mraftn ebhmbrfn< sicuhan$ mubhan dns primfns bukihtbh$ dbs aisfcubdab+ais prisihtbabs ihtri dns afstfhtns simtnris prnaumtfvns bimtbh ai kbhirbafstfhtb b dns afvirsns simtnris ai db prnaummfh( ]i pnarb pihsbr qui is idixmisn ai mrimfkfihtn ai dbs fhaustrfbs prnaumtnrbs ai kbtirfbs prfkbs y aiefihis ai mbpftbd$ db mbusb prfhmfpbd ai dbs rimisfnhis pirfafmbs$ pirn dn quisi aismueri is qui aitrs ai iddn gby uhb sneri+ixpbhsfh ai db idbstfmfabaaid sfstikb ai mraftn$ uhb ixpbhsfh ixmisfvb aid mraftn( Znr dn tbhtn$ db

23 Zbrb prn uhafzbr sneri id tikb ai db idbstfmfaba aid mraftn ebhmbrfn$ vir Gnwbra '26=1&$Aiednml y Cgfsdbfh '2677&$ y Cbrrfsnh '5::2&(


17/24

DB QINUB AID MFMDN IMNHKFMN AI @UFIAUFMG PNH GBVIL 0=

mbusb uhabkihtbd ai dbs dumtubmfnhis mmdfmbs aiei eusmbrsi ih dbs knaf fmb+mfnhis ai db mbhtfaba ai afhirn afspnhfedi n ih db idbstfmfaba aid vndukih aidafhirn qui mnhstftuyi$ sich Gbyil$ db mnhafmfh himisbrfb y su fmfihti pbrb dbnrkbmfh aid mfmdn imnhkfmn 'Gbyil 26=0 \2656[$ 227&(

Zbrb Gbyil db tinrb ai dns mfmdns hn puiai ixpdfmbrsi sdn b pbrtfr ai mbusbsribdis$ aban qui gberb qui fhafmbr pnr qu hn si ritnrhb bd istban ai iqufdf+erfn aispus aid mgnqui< y tbkpnmn puiai ixpdfmbrsi sndbkihti b pbrtfr aimbusbs knhitbrfbs mnkn uhb vbrfbmfh aid hfvid cihirbd ai primfns( ]ichGbyil dns mfmdns si aieih bd kbd uhmfnhbkfihtn ai dns primfns ridbtfvns y ihisti sihtfan su tinrb ai mfmdns is b db viz ribd y knhitbrfb( Is ribd$ pnrqui

sich Gbyil$ hn is iqufvbdihti bdbrcbr id prnmisn ai prnaummfh qui bmnr+tbrdn$ yb qui ixfstih rfcfaimis qui dn fkpfaih< y is knhitbrfb pnrqui pbrb dnsebhmns is kuy af mfd boustbr$ rpfabkihti$ db tbsb ai fhtirs b dbs vbrfbmfnhisai db tbsb hbturbd$ prnaumfhansi uhb af irihmfb ihtri dbs tbsbs ai fhtirs(

]i puiai mnkprihair db tinrb ai dns mfmdns ai Gbyil b trbvs aid iimtnbmukudbtfvn ai dns primfns aiefan b uh bukihtn ai db aikbhab ai prnaumtns(Zbrb Gbyil$ isti iimtn mnkfihzb mubhan dns ebhmns isth ih sftubmfh ai bu+kihtbr id mraftn ks bdd aid rispimtfvn mrimfkfihtn aid bgnrrn( Aban qui idbukihtn ai db aikbhab si kbhf ist ih uh kirmban anhai db n irtb sfcuf

sfihan mnhstbhti$ ihtnhmis dns primfns aieih tbkefh bukihtbr( Id irrnr `uimnkitfan pnr dns ebhmns bd ntnrcbr mbpftbd fhbhmfirn ks bdd aid mbpftbd ribdafspnhfedi( Znr dn tbhtn$ stns pnabh n rimir mbpftbd fhbhmfirn ks mbrn$ mribh+an fhvirsfnhis ih mbpftbd imnhkfmbkihti fhoustf fmbabs$ uihti ai prafabs uturbs(

]ich Gbyil$ dn qui si himisftbeb pbrb cbrbhtfzbr id `uhmfnhbkfihtn aid prn+misn butn+ricudbanr irb bdcn sfkfdbr bd sfstikb ai pbtrh nrn n uh sfstikbai tbsbs ai mbkefn fon y qui id Cnefirhn aiobsi ai fhtirvihfr ih db imnhn+kb? istn afskfhufrb 'buhqui hn idfkfhbrb mnkpditbkihti& dns iimtns aidmfmdn( B pisbr ai qui$ ih db prmtfmb$ dn qui nrfcfhb aisboustis ih id nraihmbtbdmtfmnaid kirmban is db kbdb cistfh knhitbrfb pnr pbrti aid Cnefirhn(

]u tinrb aid afhirn hiutrn pirkfti riprisihtbr uhb imnhnkb mbrbmtirfzbabpnr uh fhstrukihtn ai fhtirmbkefn qui pnr s kfskn hn is pirturebanr27(Ih db tinrb ai Gbyil id afhirn hn is hiutrn yb qui$ ih dns sfstikbs ebhmbrfnsai imnhnkbs mbpftbdfstbs$ id bukihtn aid vndukih aid mraftn hn knaffmb

27 Gbyil guefisi quirfan ihmnhtrbr db hiutrbdfaba primfsbkihti pnrqui bpnyb su pnsfmfhpndtfmb? aiihair db hiutrbdfaba is aiihair id dfeirbdfskn$ aban qui fkpdfmb qui uhbimnhnkb puiai uhmfnhbr sfh id afhirn ikftfan pnr id Istban( Mnh rispimtn bd tikb ai dbhiutrbdfaba aid afhirn vbsi? Dbfadir '2661&$ Guirtb ai ]ntn '2667& y Dih '5::2 y 5::5&(


18/24


tnans dns primfns ai db kfskb kbhirb 'bd mnhtrbrfn ai db tinrb wbdrbsibhb aidiqufdferfn cihirbd& y dns mbkefns ih dns primfns ridbtfvns fhaumih b dns pbrtfmf+pbhtis aid kirmban bd irrnr$ mribhan bhtfmfpbmfnhis qui duicn hn si mnh frkbh(

Db hiutrbdfaba hn is uh pnstudban mnkn dn irb pbrb dns riprisihtbhtis ai dbismuidb mdsfmb$ sfhn uh idikihtn bmtfvn ih db tinrb ai Gbyil( Db hiutrbdfabaaisikpib uh pbpid fhafspihsbedi ih db mnhstrummfh gbyiquibhb$ gbmfihanpnsfedi id nraih ai mnnpirbmfh gukbhb y id mdmudn cihirbd ai dns vbdnrisai kirmban( ]u fkpnrtbhmfb ist vfhmudbab afrimtbkihti bd gimgn ai qui dnsprimfns si ixprisbh ih trkfhns knhitbrfns y sneri db ebsi ai dns primfnsknhitbrfns si iimtb db mnnrafhbmfh ai dbs bmtfvfabais imnhkfmbs( Id af+

hirn aisikpib id rnd ai rimndimtnr ai db fhnrkbmfh b trbvs ai dns primfnsy is id vigmudn aid mdmudn imnhkfmn$ mnkn dn aismrfef Kfsis? bquiddn quipirkfti id mdmudn ai dns vbdnris ai kirmban y ihtnhmis gbmi pnsfedi dbsidimmfnhis fhafvfaubdis aismihtrbdfzbabs( ]dn puiai mukpdfrsi mnrrimtbkihtiisti pbpid sf su ùhmfnhbkfihtn hn si nestbmudfzb ai hfhcuhb kbhirb(

]fh ikebrcn$ b pbrtfr ai su bpbrfmfh$ id afhirn ùi neoitn ai kbhfpudbmfnhispnr pbrti ai dns Cnefirhns y dns ebhmns y$ pnr dn tbhtn$ si mnhvfrtf ih dbprfhmfpbd ùihti ai pirturebmfnhis ai dns prnmisns butn+ricudbanris ih id nr+aih snmfbd( Znr dn tbhtn$ id afhirn ebon db nrkb aid mraftn hn puiai mukpdfr

su pbpid ai rimndimtnr ai db fh nrkbmfh$ sfhn qui trbhskftfr bdsns kihsbois(Ih aifhftfvb$ si gb brcukihtban qui id afhirn afstbr kumgn ai sir hiutrn pbrbdb tinrb gbyiquibhb26( Qbkefh$ qui db hn hiutrbdfaba ai dns knvfkfihtns kn+hitbrfns b mnrtn pdbzn hn is id aismuerfkfihtn ai Gbyil? kumgn bhtis qui d$ dnsimnhnkfstbs mdsfmns bakftfirnh qui db mribmfh knhitbrfb$ bd istfkudbrbrtf fmfbdkihti db aikbhab$ fh duyi sneri dbs mnhafmfnhis ribdis ai db prnaummfh(

Kumgns imnhnkfstbs mnkn Ufmbran$ Nvirstnhi$ Qnrrihs y @fsgir si prinmu+pbrnh ai mnhstrufr sfstikbs knhitbrfns qui pirkftfirbh hiutrbdfzbr db ikfsfhai afhirn$ dn qui hns sftb rihti b uhb pbrbanob? id neoitfvn ih mnkh is virmkn si puiai gbmir pbrb qui id afhirn hn aisikpii hfhch pbpid ih dbtinrb y$ ih ridbmfh mnh db pndtfmb knhitbrfb$ id afhirn is id idikihtn mihtrbd$id hfmn bmtnr qui muihtb( Znr ioikpdn$ id afhirn is id hfmn rispnhsbedi ai

26 Gbyil aiknstr qui db hiutrbdfaba aid afhirn hn si ab hf ih id mnrtn$ hf ih id kiafbhn$hf ih id dbrcn pdbzn$ mnhtrbafmfihan b db dftirbturb trbafmfnhbd( Mnkn sucfrf uhn ai dnsreftrns ai isti brtmudn$ dbs fkpdfmbhmfbs qui isti prfhmfpfn ai hiutrbdfaba aid afhirntfihi aihtrn aid bhdfsfs kbmrnimnhkfmn knairhn puiaih sir kuy ridivbhti$ bpdfmbab$pnr ioikpdn$ b dbs tinrbs ai ixpimtbtfvbs babptbtfvbs y rbmfnhbdis n$ tbkefh$ b db Murvbai Zgfddfps y b db pndtfmb knhitbrfb ih cihirbd(


19/24


db fhdbmfh? istb fhistbefdfaba fhgirihti b tnan sfstikb ebhmbrfn ai risirvbspbrmfbdis qui si fhstburb ebon db cbrbhtb ai dns Ebhmns Mihtrbdis y$ ih aifhf+tfvb$ ai dbs butnrfabais pedfmbs(

Dbs mnhmdusfnhis aid imnhnkfstb bustrbmn ih mubhtn b pndtfmb imnhkfmb bpbri+mih$ ih pbrtfmudbr$ ih db mubrtb mnhirihmfb ai ZZ( ]ich Gbyil$ puistn qui idafhirn hn is huhmb hiutrn$ hfhcuhb pndtfmb knhitbrfb is pnsfedi hf aisibedi5:( IdIstban hn aiei fhtihtbr hf bprnpfbrsi aid afhirn hf bakfhfstrbrdn? sf si qufirisbdvbcubrabr db imnhnkb ai kirmban$ sir himisbrfn aivndvir db cirihmfb aidafhirn bd kirmban$ qui is id hfmn qui puiai cbrbhtfzbr db istbefdfaba ai su vbdnr(

Gbyil mrftfm db tinrb hinmdsfmb qui mnhstrub$ ih prfkir ducbr$ uhb tinrb yqui$ ih uh sicuhan knkihtn$ fhtihtbeb fhticrbr id afhirn b isb tinrb( Uimn+hnmf qui id prnedikb mnh isti ih nqui is qui dns primfns sicubh sfihan$isihmfbdkihti$ ridbmfnhis ai fhtirmbkefn$ ixprisbabs mnkn primfns ridbtfvnsy qui id afhirn hn bimtbeb ai hfhch knan( Istb mnhstrummfh tirfmb prn+pnrmfnhbeb baiks uhb ebsi bhbdtfmb pbrb db pndtfmb knhitbrfb$ qui boustbebid hfvid ai primfns b db mbhtfaba ai afhirn? bd istbefdfzbr id mnifmfihti aidfqufaiz 'db kbsb knhitbrfb afvfafab pnr db prnaummfh& si hfvidbebh bd kfs+kn tfikpn dns primfns$ ihtnhmis$ id afhirn sicub sfihan uh efih hiutrn(Gbyil$ rimgbzbhan istb pirspimtfvb afmntkfmb$ fhtiht fhticrbr afrimtbkih+

ti id afhirn ih id bhdfsfs ai dns ihkihns imnhkfmns$ aivndvfhandi tnabssus afkihsfnhis? db tikpnrbd y db snmfbd(

B pisbr ai qui Gbyil mnhsfair bspimtns mnkn db fhmirtfaukeri y id gimgnai qui db fhnrkbmfh is dfkftbab$ id mbrmtir afhkfmn aid afhirn hn bpbrimiih su tinrb( Mnkn dns imnhnkfstbs hinmdsfmns$ d tbkpnmn dncr fhmdufr idafhirn ih db tinrb cihirbd( Baiks$ db uhmfh ai risirvb ai vbdnr aid afhirnhn bpbrimi aisbrrnddbab 'mrtfmb ai ]rb b52&$ bs mnkn dbs mnhsimuihmfbs aidprncrisn tmhfmn y ai db fhhnvbmfh hn uirnh trbtbabs(

Buhqui dbs sndumfnhis prnpuistbs pnr Gbyil snh bh kntfvn ai afsmusfhy mrtfmb$ isti butnr fhtiht pnhir ih id mihtrn ai db prnediktfmb imnhkf+mb id istuafn aid afhirn$ abhan id pbpid prfhmfpbd b db tinrb knhitbrfb( ]usfaibs si afrfcbh$ fcubdkihti$ gbmfb uhb aisbpbrfmfh ai db pndtfmb knhitbrfbmnkn sndumfh b dbs mrfsfs(

5: ]neri id tikb ai pndtfmb knhitbrfb y mfmdns imnhkfmns ih Gbyil vir Brihb '5::5&y Qutfh '2676&(

52 Mnh rispimtn b db mrtfmb ai ]rb b vir ihtri ntrns? Uieiyrnd '2677&$ Qutfh '2676& yEihittf '2669&(


20/24


MNHMDY]FNHI]

Db dimturb ai db QKMI ai 2656 sfrvi pbrb ihtihair kionr id tixtn ZZ ai26=2( Znr uhb pbrti$ kitnandcfmbkihti db QKMI prisihtb ai kbhirb ksmdbrb dbs afstfhtbs tinrbs aid mfmdn$ ai dbs mubdis si fhspfrb Gbyil( Znr ntrbpbrti$ si kuistrb db bhtirfnrfaba ai QKMI$ db mubd ui ismrftb ebon db fhspfrb+mfh aid aiebti bdikh sneri dns mfmdns imnhkfmns y$ ih pbrtfmudbr$ ebon dbfhduihmfb ai Sfmlsidd y ai Kfsis$ y hn mnkn rispuistb mrtfmb bdQrbtban aidbKnhiabai Liyhis(

Ai fcubd kbhirb$ is pnsfedi suerbybr dns sfcufihtis puhtns?

2& Gbyil si fhtiris pnr dbs tinrbs ribdis aid mfmdn imnhkfmn$ mnhmritbkih+ti ih id bhdfsfs aid mfmdn imnhkfmn ai ]pfitgn y Mbssid$ abab db fkpnrtbhmfbqui istns dtfkns afirnh b dbs ainrkbmfnhis ai db istrumturb ai prnaummfhy b dns iimtns ai uhb vbrfbmfh ai primfn$ bs mnkn b db fhsufmfihmfb aidbgnrrn( Zbrb iddns$ db ixpbhsfh ist kntfvbab pnr id aisbrrnddn ai db prnaum+mfh ai dns efihis ai prnaummfh$ y db mrfsfs tfihi su nrfcih ih id aisbsitikpnrbd ihtri id mrimfkfihtn ai dbs fhaustrfbs qui prnaumih dns efihis aimnhsukn y dbs qui prnaumih dns efihis ai prnaummfh( Bd kfskn tfikpn$iddns aistbmbrnh db fkpnrtbhmfb ai dbs sftubmfnhis ai fhsufmfihmfb ai nhans

pristbedis$ ai bgnrrn$ himisbrfns pbrb db mnhtfhubmfh ai db bmukudbmfh( Gbyilistbeb ai bmuiran mnh uhb pbrti ai istb ixpdfmbmfh< sfh ikebrcn$ qufsnprnebr sf dns knaidns tirfmns qui prnpnhbh$ pnabh knaf fmbrsi pbrb bpdf+mbrdns ih id mbsn ai uhb imnhnkb knhitbrfb( Gbyil mrftfm id gimgn ai quiistns butnris hn tuvfirbh ih muihtb id mraftn mnkn fhfmfn aid mfmdn(

Ih ridbmfh mnh dbs tinrbs knhitbrfbs aid mfmdn imnhkfmn$ stbs pnabhtihir ans aiimtns? aismufabebh db vbrfbmfh ai db istrumturb prnaumtfvb y dbsmnhsimuihmfbs sneri dns bmtnris ribdis$ n si ebsbebh ih uh hafmi cihirbd aiprimfns$ hnmfh b db qui Gbyil abeb uhb fkpnrtbhmfb kihnr( @fhbdkihti$Gbyil fhtiht rimnhmfdfbr dns ans puhtns uhabkihtbdis ih su tinrb aid mfmdn?dns bmtnris knhitbrfns y dns hn knhitbrfns(

Mnh rispimtn b db ixpdfmbmfh ai dbs vbrfbmfnhis ai db istrumturb ribd ai dbprnaummfh$ su bhdfsfs ist ks aisbrrnddban ih ZZ$ kfihtrbs qui si ixtfihaisneri id nrfcih knhitbrfn aid mfmdn ih su prfkir dfern$ QKMI(

5& Gbyil is uhn ai dns imnhnkfstbs qui ks prn`uhafz ih id bhdfsfs ai dbhiutrbdfaba aid afhirn$ bs mnkn ih db vnduhtba ai hiutrbdfzbr dns iimtns aisu ikfsfh( ]u pdbhtibkfihtn is dcfmn bd pnhir ai kbhffistn qui id afhirnfkpdfmb afstnrsfnhis ih db vfab imnhkfmb$ ixpdfmbhan su pbpid ih id mfmdn


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imnhkfmn$ y bfrkbhan qui$ uhb knhiab hiutrb hn tfihi afrimtbkihti hbabqui vir mnh db istbefdfaba aid hfvid cihirbd ai dns primfns$ pirn sf bquiddb quihn knaffqui dns primfns ridbtfvns ai iqufdferfn( Znhir ai ridfivi istb uhmfhpirturebanrb aid afhirn$ gi bqu id neoitfvn y db fkpnrtbhmfb ai su tinrb aimfmdns( Zbrb Gbyil$ db mrfsfs imnhkfmb sir db mnhsimuihmfb aid aisnraih mbu+sban pnr db kbhfpudbmfh knhitbrfb$ ih pbrtfmudbr$ db mribmfh ai afhirnix+hfgfdn$ btrbvs ai db fhtirkiafbmfh aid mraftn(

Gbyil aiihaf dbs vihtbobs ai db hiutrbdfaba aid afhirn? bspfr ihmnhtrbr uhknaidn anhai id afhirn sirb hiutrn( ]fh ikebrcn$ ih id tixtn ai 2656 dn quiqufsn aiknstrbr `ui db hn hiutrbdfaba aid afhirn 'qui is db gfptisfs ai isti

brtmudn&$ y dn dncrb( Id prnedikb is qui pbrb su aiknstrbmfh Gbyil pbrtfai db mnhmipmfh aid afhirn hiutrb ai Kfsis y Sfmlsidd( Ih risukih$ d ai+sibeb aiknstrbr db hn hiutrbdfaba pbrtfihan ai db hiutrbdfaba$ pirn cubrabhandb ispirbhzb ai qui uisi pnsfedi netihir uh afhirn hiutrn(

=& Istb tinrb$ tbkefh$ mnhaumi b trnpizbrsi mnh uh tfpn ai afmntnkb(Mnkn vfkns$ id pihsbkfihtn knhitbrfn ai Gbyil mbi ih uhb trbafmfh tbhafmntkfmb mnkn db tinrb mubhtftbtfvb aid afhirn$ qui d mrftfmb$ dn mubd isivfaihti sf rimnhnmikns qui db hiutrbdfaba aid afhirn hn is ks qui uhmnrndbrfn ai db tinrb mubhtftbtfvb aid afhirn? Db hiutrbdfaba aid afhirn((( is

uhb kfstf fmbmfh giriabab ai db tinrb mubhtftbtfvb aid afhirn( Zbrb pihsbr idafhirn is himisbrfn dfeirbrsi ai istb vfsfh mubhtftbtfvfstb 'Enyir 5::=$ =1:&(

Gbyil sftb su rbznhbkfihtn ih uhb imnhnkb qui qufiri sir knhitbrfb$pirn ih db qui id afhirn hn pnsii tnabs sus afkihsfnhis? supnhfihan qui dbmbhtfaba ai afhirn ih mfrmudbmfh is mnhstbhti$ dns risudtbans netihfans snhdns kfskns sf id bgnrrn `uirb ih kirmbhmb ih viz ai sir ih afhirn( Db prfh+mfpbd mnhtrfeumfh ai Gbyil is id gimgn ai pdbhtibr id prnedikb ai mnhstrufruhb tinrb knhitbrfb vfhmudbab b dns primfns ridbtfvns qui snh$ bd kfskntfikpn$ primfns knhitbrfns(

Rufsn aiknstrbr qui id afhirn tfihi iimtns ribdis sneri db imnhnkb y sneritnan$ qui istns iimtns bmtbh sneri dns primfns ridbtfvns ai dbs kirmbhmbs ysneri db afstrfeumfh ai db prnaummfh ihtri efihis ai prnaummfh y efihisai mnhsukn$ y hn sneri id hfvid cihirbd ai primfns( Id fhmnhvihfihti ist ihqui Gbyil hn ddic b ixpdfmbr db ridbmfh ixbmtb ihtri id afhirn y id prnmisnai nrkbmfh ai dns primfns y$ fhbdkihti mby$ mnkn bquiddns b qufihismrftfm$ ih id irrnr ai mnhuhafr imnhnkb knhitbrfb ai fhtirmbkefn mnh uhbimnhnkb ai truiqui ks id afhirn( Istn is uh irrnr tpfmn ai dns knaidnsai isttfmb mnkpbrbtfvb$ puistn qui$ buhqui prisihtb su knaidn mnkn afh+kfmn$ sbeikns qui hn dn is( Gbyil rbznhb ih trkfhns afhkfmns$ pirn


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ribdkihti su knaidn sfcui sfihan isttfmn( Db uihti ai su mnh usfh is dbfhduihmfb ai db tinrb mubhtftbtfvb aid afhirn y id mnhmiptn ai afhirn ai dbismuidb bustrbmb 'Kihcir$ Kfsis&$ dn mubd hficb db pnsfefdfaba ai mnhstrufr$ribdkihti$ uhb tinrb knhitbrfb anhai id afhirn ist vfhmudban b db tinrb aidvbdnr$ sfh mbir ih db afmntnkb(

UI@IUIHMFB] EFEDFNCU@FMB]

B tbdfnh$ B( '262=&(Dis mrfsis prfnafquis aisurprnaumtfnh( Zbrfs? Ufvfri(

Brihb$ U( '2661&(Gbyil bha Knairh Eusfhiss MymdiQginry( Ih? Mndnhhb$ K( y Gbcikbhh

G( '2661&(Knhiy bha Eusfhiss Mymdis( Qgi Imnhnkfms n @(B( Gbyil( Mgidtihgbk?Iawbra Idcbr(

Brihb$ U( '2666&( Gbyil it dqufdferimnhnkfqui? uhibutrifhtirprtbtfnh(Uivuiamnhnkfipndftfqui$ 2:7'0&? 713+797(

Brihb$ U( '5::5&(Knhitbry Zndfmy bha Eusfhiss Mymdis( Gbyil bs bh Nppnhiht n tgiRubhtftyQginry Qrbaftfnh( Ih? Efrhir$ O($ Z( Cbrrnusti y Q( Bfkbr '5::5&( @(B( Gbyil bs bZndftfmbd Imnhnkfst( Dnharis? Unutdiaci(

Eihittf$ M( '2669&(Gbyil$ db knhhbfiit db tihabhmib dqufdferi(ImnhnkfiBppdfqui$ WDPFF F'1&? 02+39(

Enyir ais Unmgis$ O( '5::=&( Db pihsiknhtbfri(Zbrfs? Dis ]ndns(

Mbssid$ C( '2653&(Qginry n ]nmfbd Imnhnky( Hiw Vnrl? Kbmkfddbh(

Mndnhhb$ K( y Gbcikbhh G( '2661&( Knhiy bha Eusfhiss Mymdis( QgiImnhnkfms n @(B(

Gbyil$ vnd F $ Bdairsgnt? Iawbra Idcbr(

Aiednml$ M( y O+O( Cgfsdbfh( '2677&( Dimriaft it db tgnrfiau mymdimnhnkfquimgiz Gbyil(Ih? Anstbdir$ C y A( Itgfir 'ia(& '2676&( @rfiarfmg Gbyil? pgfdnsnpgfi$ mnhnkfiitpndftfqui( Zbrfs? mnhnkfmb(

Anstbdir$ C( '2661&(Qgi@nrkbtfnh bha Ivndutfnh n Gbyils QrbaiMymdiQginry( Ih?Mndnhhb$ K( y Gbcikbhh G( '2661&( Knhiy bha Eusfhiss Mymdis( Qgi Imnhnkfmsn @(B( Gbyil$ vnd F $ Bdairsgnt? Iawbra Idcbr(

Cbrrfsnh$ Uncir( '5::2&(Qfikpn y Afhirn( Db Kbmrnimnhnkb aidb istrumturb aid mbpftbd(Kbarfa? Yhfh Iaftnrfbd(

Cnkiz Eitbhmnurt$ U( '5::=&(Db pihsiknhtbfrimgiz Gbyil ais bhhis trihti? Qgnrfiaismymdis it knhhbfihiutri( Qisfs ai db Kbistrb prisihtbab ih db Yhfvirsfaba ai Zbrs F+]nrenhhi(

Gbyil vnh @( '26=0 \2656[&( Cidatginrfiuha Lhouhltur tginrfi( O( ]prfhcir$ Pfihhi(Knhitbry Qginry bha tgiQrbaiMymdi'26==&( Dnharis? Onhbtgbh Mbpi$ trba( ai\2656[(Db Qinrb Knhitbrfb y id Mfmdn Imnhkfmn$ trba( ai \2656[$ Kbarfa? Ispbsb(

Gbyil vnh @( '2660 \26=2[&(Zrfmis bha Zrnaumtfnh( Dnharis? Unutdiaci y ]nhs


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Gnwbra$ ]( '26=1&(Cirkbh Knhitbry Qginry$ 26:9+26==( Mbkerfaci? Gbrvbra YhfvirsftyZriss(

Guirtb ai ]ntn$ O( '2667&( Afhirn$ mraftn ebhmbrfn y mfmdns imnhkfmns( Kbarfa? YhfhIaftnrfbd(

Ldbusfhcir$ G( '5::3&(QgiKblfhcn @( B( Gbyils Knhitbry Qginry bha tgiQrbaiMymdi(Snrlfhc Zbpir prisihtban ih db Mnh irihmfb ai db I]GIQ ih Istrbseurcn$ id 9 aioudfn ai 5::3(

Dbfadir$ A( '2661&(Gbyil nh Hiutrbd Knhiy bha QgiMymdi( Ih?Mndnhhb$ K( y GbcikbhhG( '2661&( Knhiy bha Eusfhiss Mymdis( QgiImnhnkfms n @(B( Gbyil$ Bdairsgnt?Iawbra Idcbr$ Pnd( F(

Dih$ K( '5::2&( Db ixpbhsfh brtf fmfbd aid mraftn mnkn mbusb ai dbs mrfsfs imnhkf+

mbs? mrtfmb b db vfsfh ai Gbyil( Bhdfsfs imnhkfmn$ 20'==&? 32+2:3(Dih$ K( '5::5&( Bhdfsfs mrtfmn aid pdbhtibkfihtn aid prnedikb ai db hiutrbdfaba?

Sfmlsidd$ Gbyil y Zbtfhlfh(Bhdfsfs imnhkfmn$ 23'=0&? 2:3+215(

Kfsis$ D( '2672 \2625[&(QgiQginry n Knhiy bha Mriaft( Dfeirty Mdbssfms n Fhafbhbpndfs(Db Qinrb aid Afhirn y aid Mraftn( Kbarfa? Yhfh Iaftnrfbd(

Knss$ D( 'ia(& '2630&(QgiImnhnkfms n DuawfcPnh Kfsis( ]giia bha Sbr$ fhm( Fhstftutinr Gukbfhi ]tuafis(

Ubvfir$ B( N( '5::0&( @nrkbmfh aimbpftbd y mfmdns imnhkfmns? uhb fhtrnaummfh bd bhdfsfskbmrnimnhkfmn( Qisfs ai db Kbistrb ih Imnhnkb y Bakfhfstrbmfh ai Ikprisbsai I]IBAI$ dfern idimtrhfmn IYKIA(

Uieiyrnd$ B( '2677&( B prnpns ais Qginrfis pri+liyhissfihis au mymdi? Sfmlsidd$ @fsmgir itGbyil(Imnhnkfis it snmfts$ 6? 69+2==(

Ufmbran$ A( '2679 \2723[& Nh QgiZrfhmfpdis n Zndftfmbd Imnhnky bha Qbxbtfnh( Dnharis$Ongh Kurrby$ Bdeikbrdi+]triit( Zrfhmfpfns ai imnhnkb pndtfmb y trfeutbmfh(Kxfmn? @MI(

Uneirtsnh '2629&( B stuay n Fhaustrfbd @dumtubtfnhs( Dnharis? Sistkfhstir$ Lfhc bha]nh Dta(

]mgukpitir$ O( '2632 \2691[&( Gfstnry n Imnhnkfm Bhbdysfs( Dnharis$ Cinrci Bddih bhaYhwfh(Gfstnrfb aid Bhbdfsfs Imnhnkfmn( Kxfmn$ @MI(

]gbmldi$ C( '26==&( ]nki hntis nh Knhitbry Qginrfis n tgi Qrbai Mymdi( UivfiwnImnhnkfm ]tuafis$2? 53+=7(

]pfitgn $ B( '2659&(Lrfsihfh? Gbhawrtireumg air stbbtswfssihsmgbtih( Oihb$ 7+62(Qgnrhtnh$ G('2662 \27:5[&( Bh ihqufry fhtn tgihbturibha i`imts n tgipbpir mriaft n

Cribt Erftbfh( 'Fhtrnaumtfnh pbr @rfiarfmg Gbyil&( Dnhanh? Cinrci Bddih bhaYhwfh(

Qutfh$ Mg( '2676&Knhhbfiit dferbdfski? dimbs Gbyil(Mbgfirs amnhnkfipndftfqui$ H(20+23(

Sfmlsidd$ L ( '26=0 \2767[& Fhtirist bha Zrfmis(B ]tuay n tgiMbusis UicudbtfhctgiPbduin Knhiy( Dnharis? Kbmkfddbh(


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La Teoría del Ciclo Económico de Friedrich von Hayek: Causas monetarias, efectos reales

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Transcript of La Teoría del Ciclo Económico de Friedrich von Hayek: Causas monetarias, efectos reales