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  • 1

    Large-Scale Hydrological Modelling in the Semi-Arid North-East of Brazil 2

    3

    Dissertation 4

    5 6

    zur Erlangung des akademischen Grades 7 Doktor der Naturwissenschaften (Dr. rer. nat) 8

    in der Wissenschaftsdisziplin Geoökologie 9 10

    Eingereicht an der Mathematisch-Naturwissenschaftlichen Fakultät 11 der Universität Potsdam 12

    13 von 14

    Andreas Güntner 15

    März 2002 16

  • 17 18

    Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research 19 Department of Geoecology at the University of Potsdam 20

    21 22 23 24

    Large-Scale Hydrological Modelling in the Semi-Arid North-East of Brazil 25

    26 27

    Dissertation for the Degree of Doctor of Natural Sciences 28 29 30

    Submitted to the Faculty of Mathematics and Sciences 31 at the University of Potsdam 32

    in March 2002 33 by 34

    35 Andreas Güntner 36

    37 38 39 40

    Reviewers 41 Prof. Dr. Axel Bronstert 42

    Prof. Dr. András Bárdossy 43 Prof. Dr. Zbigniew Kundzewicz 44

    45

  • Preface

    Preface 46

    This study has been developed within the joint Brazil- ian-German research project WAVES (Water Availa- bility and Vulnerability of Ecosystems and Society in the North-East of Brazil), funded by the German Min- istry for Education and Research (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung - BMBF) and by the Brazil- ian National Council for the Scientific and Technolog- ical Development (Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico - CNPq). The results obtained here in the sub-project on large- scale hydrological modelling, carried out at the Pots- dam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Potsdam, Germany, have been included into the inter- disciplinary analysis of social and natural systems in areas of limited water resources of north-eastern Bra- zil within the WAVES project.

    At first, I would like to express my sincere thanks to my main supervisor, Prof. Dr. Axel Bronstert, who supported the work on this thesis in every respect. My thanks to him are not only for many helpful discus- sions which accompanied and improved this research, but also for providing very agreeable background con- ditions under which this work could arise, as in raising the financial support, in granting me freedom in the scientific work and in showing confidence in my way of proceeding.

    I would also like to thank the colleagues at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and at several other institutions in Germany and Brazil, who contributed to the WAVES project and thus supported this work with their experience, with critical questions on its concepts and with data. Beside of the profes- sional value, I am grateful to them for the common time in which they introduced me, or in which we got known together, to the fascinating people, nature and culture of north-eastern Brazil. In particular, my

    thanks to Dr. Maarten Krol from PIK, to Maike Hauschild, Dr. Mario Mendiondo and Dr. Petra Döll from the University of Kassel, to Dr. Thomas Gaiser and Dr. Dietrich Halm from the University of Hohen- heim, to Andreas Printz from the Technical University of Munich, to Prof. Dr. José Nilson Campos and Dr. Eduardo Sávio Martins from FUNCEME in Fortaleza, to Claudio Pacheco from COGERH in Fortaleza, to Dr. João Suassuna from FUNDAJ in Recife and to Dr. Cín- tia Bertacchi Uvo.

    My special thanks in the above respect to Prof. José Carlos de Araújo from the Federal University of Ceará in Fortaleza for the close co-operation, for his untiring efforts in organizing data and opening doors to institu- tions in Ceará, for the excursions with him and others of his team which were very inspiring to get known to the field of water resources in the study area, and, last but not least, for several pleasant evenings he organ- ized where we quickly got ideas of our host country beyond hydrology.

    I would also like to thank Dr. Jonas Olsson, who was at Kyushu University in Japan at that time, for fa- cilitating my access to the field of rainfall disaggrega- tion and for the intensive and fruitful common work on this subject.

    Many thanks to Dr. Eric Cadier from IRD (ORSTOM) in France, who gave, at the onset of this study, a very valuable introduction into the hydrology of north-eastern Brazil and provided data of the small- scale studies. My thanks also to Dr. Kirk Haselton from Potsdam University to support the work on rain- fall estimation from remote sensing data.

    Finally, I am deeply grateful to Annette, who helped me to get over sleepless nights and similar side effects of this thesis with a lot of sympathy, patience and encouragement.

    Andreas Güntner Potsdam, March 2002

  • VI Summary

  • Contents

    1

    List of Figures . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .XI

    List of Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XV

    Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XVII

    Zusammenfassung . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . XIX

    Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1

    1.1 Background and Motivation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 1.3 Structure of this Study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

    Study Area . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

    2.1 Federal State of Ceará, Brazil . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2.1.1 Location and overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2.1.2 Climate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2.1.3 Vegetation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2.1.4 Geology and soils . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 2.1.5 Hydrology and water resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.1.6 Available data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

    2.1.6.1 Spatial physiographic data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.1.6.2 Climate data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 2.1.6.3 Discharge and reservoir storage time series . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8

    2.2 Small-scale Basin Tauá . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

    Processes and Models of Semi-Arid Hydrology. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

    3.1 Precipitation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 3.1.1 Process overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11 3.1.2 Rainfall models. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13 3.1.3 Cascade-based model for temporal rainfall disaggregation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13

    3.2 Evapotranspiration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 3.2.1 Process overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 3.2.2 Interception models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15 3.2.3 Soil evaporation models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16 3.2.4 Evapotranspiration models . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

    3.3 Runoff Generation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 3.3.1 Process overview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19

  • VIII Contents

    3.3.1.1 Infiltration and infiltration-excess runoff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 3.3.1.2 Saturation-excess runoff . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .