Lebanon Weekly Monitor (47) 14-11-2016images.mofcom.gov.cn/lb/201612/20161206051814254.pdf ·...

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1 Week 47 November 14 - November 20, 2016 NOVEMBER 14 - NOVEMBER 20, 2016 WEEK 47 Bank Audi sal - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected] CONTACTS RESEARCH Treasury & Capital Markets Bechara Serhal (961-1) 977421 [email protected] Nadine Akkawi (961-1) 977401 [email protected] Private Banking Toufic Aouad (961-1) 954922 toufi[email protected] Corporate Banking Khalil Debs (961-1) 977229 [email protected] LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK OF NOVEMBER 14 - NOVEMBER 20, 2016 The LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR Economy ___________________________________________________________________________ p.2 STRONG ACTIVITY GROWTH FOR ALPHA BANKS IN THE THIRD QUARTER, DRIVEN BY DOMESTIC ACTIVITY The Alpha Report, outlining the performance and positioning of the first 14 banks in Lebanon with deposits exceeding US$ 2 billion, suggested strong activity growth in the third quarter, driven by domestic activity. Also in this issue p.3 Gross public debt at US$ 74.7 billion at end-September 2016 p.4 Cement deliveries rise by 7.1% in the first nine months of 2016 p.4 Electricity production up by 3.9% in the first nine months of 2016 Surveys ___________________________________________________________________________ p.5 STABLE HOTEL OCCUPANCY IN BEIRUT IN THE FIRST TEN MONTHS OF 2016, AS PER EY Ernst & Young issued its hotel occupancy report covering the first ten months of 2016 in which it showed that the performance of Lebanon’s hospitality sector witnessed a stagnation. Also in this issue p.6 Lebanon ranks 67th globally in ease of paying taxes, as per PwC Corporate News ___________________________________________________________________________ p.7 NEW CAR SALES FALL BY YEARLY 5.1% IN THE FIRST TEN MONTHS OF 2016 According to the data compiled by the Association of Car Importers in Lebanon, the number of newly registered cars stood at 31,141 in the first ten months of 2016, down by 5.1% from a total of 32,811 in the first ten months of 2015. Also in this issue p.8 Creditbank’s net profits up to US$ 22.0 million in the first half of 2016 Markets In Brief ___________________________________________________________________________ p.9 BOND PRICES DOWN AMID ONGOING LOCAL SELLING, TRACKING US TREASURIES MOVE Amid obstacles facing the cabinet formation, Lebanon’s capital markets saw this week expansions in spreads on the Eurobond markets, small price increases on the equity market and a sustained balanced activity on the FX market. In details, the average bond spread expanded by 17 bps to 463 bps, mainly driven by a continuous domestic selling to internationals and tracking US Treasuries move amid rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in December 2016. On the equity market, prices remained relatively stable, as reflected by a shy rise in the BSE price index of 0.1%. The total trading value on the BSE reached US$ 16 million against an average weekly value of US$ 18 million since the beginning of 2016. At the level of FX market, the LP/US$ interbank rate continued to hover between LP 1,514 and LP 1,514.50 amid sustained balanced activity. Marwan Barakat (961-1) 977409 [email protected] Jamil Naayem (961-1) 977406 [email protected] Salma Saad Baba (961-1) 977346 [email protected] Fadi Kanso (961-1) 977470 [email protected] Gerard Arabian (961-1) 964047 [email protected] Farah Nahlawi (961-1) 959747 [email protected] Anthony Badr (961-1) 964714 [email protected] Nivine Turyaki (961-1) 959615 [email protected]

Transcript of Lebanon Weekly Monitor (47) 14-11-2016images.mofcom.gov.cn/lb/201612/20161206051814254.pdf ·...

Page 1: Lebanon Weekly Monitor (47) 14-11-2016images.mofcom.gov.cn/lb/201612/20161206051814254.pdf · Corporate Banking Khalil Debs (961-1) 977229 khalil.debs@asib.com LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK

1Week 47 November 14 - November 20, 2016

NOVEMBER 14 - NOVEMBER 20, 2016

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Bank Audi sal - Group Research Department - Bank Audi Plaza - Bab Idriss - PO Box 11-2560 - Lebanon - Tel: 961 1 994 000 - email: [email protected]

CONTACTS

RESEARCH

Treasury & Capital Markets

Bechara Serhal(961-1) [email protected]

Nadine Akkawi(961-1) [email protected]

Private Banking

Toufic Aouad(961-1) [email protected]

Corporate Banking

Khalil Debs(961-1) [email protected]

LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK OF NOVEMBER 14 - NOVEMBER 20, 2016

The LEBANON WEEKLY MONITOR

Economy___________________________________________________________________________p.2 STRONG ACTIVITY GROWTH FOR ALPHA BANKS IN THE THIRD QUARTER, DRIVEN BY DOMESTIC ACTIVITYThe Alpha Report, outlining the performance and positioning of the first 14 banks in Lebanon with deposits exceeding US$ 2 billion, suggested strong activity growth in the third quarter, driven by domestic activity.

Also in this issuep.3 Gross public debt at US$ 74.7 billion at end-September 2016 p.4 Cement deliveries rise by 7.1% in the first nine months of 2016p.4 Electricity production up by 3.9% in the first nine months of 2016

Surveys___________________________________________________________________________p.5 STABLE HOTEL OCCUPANCY IN BEIRUT IN THE FIRST TEN MONTHS OF 2016, AS PER EYErnst & Young issued its hotel occupancy report covering the first ten months of 2016 in which it showed that the performance of Lebanon’s hospitality sector witnessed a stagnation.

Also in this issuep.6 Lebanon ranks 67th globally in ease of paying taxes, as per PwC

Corporate News___________________________________________________________________________p.7 NEW CAR SALES FALL BY YEARLY 5.1% IN THE FIRST TEN MONTHS OF 2016 According to the data compiled by the Association of Car Importers in Lebanon, the number of newly registered cars stood at 31,141 in the first ten months of 2016, down by 5.1% from a total of 32,811 in the first ten months of 2015.

Also in this issue p.8 Creditbank’s net profits up to US$ 22.0 million in the first half of 2016

Markets In Brief___________________________________________________________________________p.9 BOND PRICES DOWN AMID ONGOING LOCAL SELLING, TRACKING US TREASURIES MOVEAmid obstacles facing the cabinet formation, Lebanon’s capital markets saw this week expansions in spreads on the Eurobond markets, small price increases on the equity market and a sustained balanced activity on the FX market. In details, the average bond spread expanded by 17 bps to 463 bps, mainly driven by a continuous domestic selling to internationals and tracking US Treasuries move amid rising expectations that the US Federal Reserve would raise interest rates in December 2016. On the equity market, prices remained relatively stable, as reflected by a shy rise in the BSE price index of 0.1%. The total trading value on the BSE reached US$ 16 million against an average weekly value of US$ 18 million since the beginning of 2016. At the level of FX market, the LP/US$ interbank rate continued to hover between LP 1,514 and LP 1,514.50 amid sustained balanced activity.

Marwan Barakat(961-1) [email protected]

Jamil Naayem(961-1) [email protected]

Salma Saad Baba(961-1) [email protected]

Fadi Kanso(961-1) [email protected]

Gerard Arabian(961-1) [email protected]

Farah Nahlawi(961-1) [email protected]

Anthony Badr(961-1) [email protected]

Nivine Turyaki(961-1) [email protected]

Page 2: Lebanon Weekly Monitor (47) 14-11-2016images.mofcom.gov.cn/lb/201612/20161206051814254.pdf · Corporate Banking Khalil Debs (961-1) 977229 khalil.debs@asib.com LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK

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ECONOMY______________________________________________________________________________STRONG ACTIVITY GROWTH FOR ALPHA BANKS IN THE THIRD QUARTER, DRIVEN BY DOMESTIC ACTIVITY

The Alpha Report, outlining the performance and positioning of the first 14 banks in Lebanon with deposits exceeding US$ 2 billion, was issued by Bankdata Financial Services for the third quarter of 2016. Alpha banks reported a strong consolidated activity growth in the first nine months of 2016, driven mainly by domestic activity. Measured by consolidated assets, banking activity grew by 5.1% year-to-date, with domestic activity growing by 6.8% and foreign activity regressing by 1.6%. The former was favored by the financial engineering operations of the Central Bank of Lebanon that generated a significant growth in financial inflows to Lebanon estimated at 36% year-on-year over the first nine months of 2016, yielding a net surplus in the balance of payments. The decline in foreign activity is tied to the effects of the depreciation of national currencies in major countries of presence.

Customer deposits that account for 81% of banking activity followed the same pace, with domestic deposits growing by 4.3% and foreign deposits contracting by 2.0%. It is worth mentioning that the currency breakdown of domestic deposits suggests that LP deposits grew by 3.7% and FX deposits rose by 4.7%, keeping deposit dollarization at its level of 63.6% at end-September 2016. It is worth also noting that the year 2016 did not witness any branch network expansion but added 403 employees to raise total staff employed to 31,148 employees, of which 68% in Lebanon and 32% abroad.

The analysis of Alpha banks’ lending portfolios suggests a strong lending growth of 4.7% over the first nine months of 2016, with domestic lending growing by 3.9% and foreign lending rising by 6.5%. The noticeable development in domestic lending was the lending in LP that grew by a significant 9.4%, thus contracting lending dollarization to a new low on the back of stimulus packages by BDL supporting in particular domestic currency lending and aimed at restoring the role of the Lebanese Pound as a borrowing currency. The growth in lending activity was not realized at the detriment of asset quality, as gross doubtful loans as a percentage of total loans stabilized at 5.72% (6.66% when including substandard loans), close to its level a year ago. With a coverage ratio of 74.43% of loan loss reserves to doubtful loans, the net doubtful loans to gross loans ratio remains low at 1.46%. Most importantly, collective provisions as a percentage of net loans reached a record high of 1.27% by end-September 2016, as banks took significant collective provisions prior to IFRS 9 implementation with the context of BDL directives that paralleled its financial engineering operations of the third quarter of the year.

ALPHA BANKS RANKING BY MAJOR AGGREGATES AS AT SEPTEMBER 2016

Source: Bankdata Financial Services

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As Alpha banks resorted to their liquidity abroad to subscribe in CDs issued by BDL within its financial engineering operations, the ratio of liquidity in foreign banks fell to 6.45% of their asset base, while liquidity at the Central Bank reached a new high of 26.21% of assets. Net Primary liquid assets thus constituted a high of 33.58% of customer deposits in September 2016, further raising the ratio in comparison with the emerging markets average of circa 22%, suggesting that Alpha banks remain highly liquid on the overall. In parallel, as banks undertook significant efforts in summer to sell Lebanese Eurobonds out of their portfolio holdings to foreign institutional investors, their FC sovereign exposure fell to 13.24% of FC deposits and 83.22% of shareholders’ equity.

At the profitability level, the year 2016 witnessed so far a 9.7% growth in Alpha banks net profits, reinforcing return ratios at large. The return on average assets rose from 1.00% in the first nine months of 2015 to 1.17% in the 2016 corresponding period, while the return on average equity rose from 11.33% to 13.05% and the return on average common equity remained stable at 12.85%. Despite the rise in cost of funding by 10 basis points between the two periods (mainly due to cost of FC funding that rose from 3.51% to 3.64%), Alpha banks spread improved by 4 bps to reach 1.94% as a result of the improving yield on earning assets combined with a growing share of average interest earning assets to average assets. The most significant development was at the level of non-interest income which rose from 0.88% of average assets in the first nine months of 2015 to 1.32% in the 2016 corresponding period, raising asset utilization from 2.78% to 3.26% between the two periods. At the current return ratios, Alpha banks are close to their average cost of equity, following the net divergence reported in the past few years amid tough operating conditions in their main markets of presence. ______________________________________________________________________________GROSS PUBLIC DEBT AT US$ 74.7 BILLION AT END-SEPTEMBER 2016

The data published by the Ministry of Finance in Lebanon showed that the country’s gross debt reached US$ 74.7 billion at end-September 2016, up by 6.3% from the level seen at end-2015, and up by 8.7% from the level registered at end-September 2015.

Domestic debt was higher by 5.5% from end-2015 and by 7.3% from end-September 2015 to reach a total of US$ 45.6 billion at end-September 2016. Lebanon’s external debt grew by 7.5% from end-2015 and by 11.2% from end-September 2015 to stand at around US$ 29.1 billion at end-September 2016.

In this context, the public sector deposits at the Central Bank rose by 28.9% from end-2015 and by 37.3% from end-September 2015 to stand at US$ 7.0 billion at end-September 2016. The public sector deposits

GROSS PUBLIC DEBT (US$ BILLION)

Sources: Association of Banks in Lebanon, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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at commercial banks edged up by 3.5% from end-2015 and by 7.5% from end-September 2015 to reach US$ 3.5 billion at end-September 2016.

As such, net public debt which excludes the public sector deposits at the Central Bank and commercial banks from overall debt figures, increased by 4.4% from end-2015 and by 6.4% from end-September 2015 to reach a total of US$ 64.3 billion at end-September 2016. Net domestic debt amounted to US$ 35.2 billion at end-September 2016, up by 2.0% from end-2015 and up by 2.8% from end-September 2015._____________________________________________________________________________CEMENT DELIVERIES RISE BY 7.1% IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2016

Figures released by the Central Bank of Lebanon show that cement deliveries, a coincident indicator of construction activity, rose by a yearly 7.1% in the first nine months of 2016.

Cement deliveries actually reached circa 3,875,178 tons in the first nine months of 2016, up from 3,619,082 tons in the corresponding period of 2015.

It is worth recalling that cement deliveries reached 5,042,873 tons in 2015, down from 5,516,827 tons in 2014.

CEMENT DELIVERIES (IN TONS)

Sources: Central Bank of Lebanon, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

_____________________________________________________________________________ELECTRICITY PRODUCTION UP BY 3.9% IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2016

Data published by the Central Bank of Lebanon shows that electricity production rose by 3.9% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2016. The production totaled 9,795 million Kilowatt Hour (kWh) in the covered period of 2016, up from 9,430 kWh in the first nine months of 2015.

In a backward look, electricity production decreased by a yearly 0.4% last year from 12,522 million kWh in 2014 to 12,475 million kWh in 2015.

Page 5: Lebanon Weekly Monitor (47) 14-11-2016images.mofcom.gov.cn/lb/201612/20161206051814254.pdf · Corporate Banking Khalil Debs (961-1) 977229 khalil.debs@asib.com LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK

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SURVEYS_____________________________________________________________________________STABLE HOTEL OCCUPANCY IN BEIRUT IN THE FIRST TEN MONTHS OF 2016, AS PER EY

Ernst & Young issued its hotel occupancy report covering the first ten months of 2016 in which it showed that the performance of Lebanon’s hospitality sector witnessed a stagnation. As a matter of fact, the occupancy rate of four and five star hotels within the capital remained stable at 58% in the first ten months of 2016. It is worth mentioning that 8 of the 14 cities included in the Middle East reported a net decline in occupancy.

The occupancy rate within Beirut was the ninth highest among 14 cities included in the survey. It was directly surpassed by that of Madina (61%), Doha (62%), Muscat (63%), and Cairo (63%) while coming before that of Riyadh (56%), Amman (50%), and Manama (49%).

Beirut’s room rate fell from an average of US$ 165 in the first ten months of 2015 to US$ 138 in the corresponding period of 2016, equivalent to a yearly decline of 16.5%. Such a trend was the highest among surveyed cities. The rate of the capital’s hotels was the 12th highest one in the region. It exceeded that of Cairo (US$ 128) and Abu Dhabi (US$ 121) while being surpassed by that of Ras el Khaimah (US$ 158) and Amman (US$ 159).

The rooms’ yield was on the same path, falling by 16.5% annually to US$ 80 in the first ten months of 2016 compared to US$ 96 in the same period of 2015. The yield was the 14th highest one, coming at par with that of Cairo (US$ 80) while being surpassed by that of Amman (US$ 81), Abu Dhabi (US$ 93), and Manama (US$ 98).

ERNST & YOUNG MIDDLE EAST HOTEL BENCHMARK SURVEY (10M 2016)

Sources: Ernst & Young, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

Page 6: Lebanon Weekly Monitor (47) 14-11-2016images.mofcom.gov.cn/lb/201612/20161206051814254.pdf · Corporate Banking Khalil Debs (961-1) 977229 khalil.debs@asib.com LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK

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_____________________________________________________________________________LEBANON RANKS 67TH GLOBALLY IN EASE OF PAYING TAXES, AS PER PWC

According to a recent PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) report titled “Paying Taxes 2017”, Lebanon ranked 67th out of 190 countries and 7th out of 16 MENA countries in terms of ease of paying taxes.

Paying Taxes is designed to measure the ease of paying taxes and is part of the World Bank Group’s Doing Business project which itself measures the “ease of doing business” by looking at 11 indicators, including the Paying Taxes indicator.

The study provides data on the tax systems of 190 economies around the world and facilitates a like-for-like comparison. It assesses taxes from the perspective of a tax paying business, based upon a case study company.

The report reflects all taxes and contributions that a standardized medium-sized domestic company pays, including corporate income taxes, employment taxes and mandatory contributions, indirect taxes, and a variety of smaller payments such as municipal taxes.

A result overview shows Lebanon’s global rankings regressed from the 45th spot in last year’s survey to the 67th one out of 190 countries included in this year’s survey. However, it is important to note that this year’s report includes an additional sub-indicator (the post-filling index), and that Lebanon would have ranked 48th based on the old methodology. Regionally, Lebanon maintained its rank from last year’s report to the 7th spot in the region.

The ease of paying taxes rankings are now compiled through four sub-indicators: number of tax payments, the time to comply, the total tax rate, and the post-filling index.

When it comes to tax payments, the study indicates that the standard case study in Lebanon paid a total of 20 taxes (unchanged from last year) compared to a regional average of 17.1, 12 of which are labor tax payments, one is a profit tax payment, and seven are other miscellaneous tax payments.

The indicator for the time to comply assesses the number of hours per year the case study spends on dealing with taxes. In Lebanon, the sample case study spends 181 hours compared to 183 hours last year and the regional average of 157 hours, 100 of which is spent dealing with labor taxes, 40 hours handling corporate income taxes, and 41 hours dealing with consumption taxes. It is worth noting that for this indicator, the longer time dedicated to handling taxes, the lower the rank.

When examining the indicator for tax rate, the case study in Lebanon appears to have a total tax rate of 30.3% (unchanged from last year) compared to a regional average of 24.2%. Labor tax rate was found to be at 23.8%, whereas profit tax rate was at 6.1% of total commercial profits.

Finally, as to the post-filling index which measures the efficiency of a country's tax system, Lebanon obtained a score of 63.3 which is compiled through the evaluation of VAT compliance time (45 hours), VAT waiting time (27.4 weeks) and CIT compliance time (7 hours).

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CORPORATE NEWS_____________________________________________________________________________NEW CAR SALES FALL BY YEARLY 5.1% IN THE FIRST TEN MONTHS OF 2016

According to the data compiled by the Association of Car Importers in Lebanon, the number of newly registered cars stood at 31,141 in the first ten months of 2016, down by 5.1% from a total of 32,811 in the first ten months of 2015. During the month of October 2016, newly registered cars totaled 2,562, down from 3,641 in October 2015.

Furthermore, the majority of the registered new cars are small cars with low selling price. The orientation of the market toward the small cars is due to the absence of an adapted and structured public transport, and to the spillover of the current prevailing conditions on the purchasing power of the consumers.

Korea’s Kia ranked first in terms of new car registration during the first ten months of 2016 with a total of 6,151 cars against a total of 6,317 cars during the same period of last year. It was followed by Korea’s Hyundai with 4,619 newly registered cars in the first ten months of 2016, against 4,993 recorded in the same period of last year.

Third was Japan’s Toyota with a total of 4,199 newly registered cars in the first ten months of 2016, lower than the total of 5,320 registered a year earlier.

Fourth came Japan’s Nissan with 2,977 newly registered cars in the aforementioned period of this year, compared to 3,407 recorded in the same period of last year. France’s Renault ranked fifth with 1,513 newly registered cars in the first ten months of 2016 versus a total of 1,424 reported in the same period a year earlier.

TOP BRANDS OF NEWLY REGISTERED CARS IN THE FIRST TEN MONTHS OF 2016

Sources: Association of Car Importers in Lebanon, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

Page 8: Lebanon Weekly Monitor (47) 14-11-2016images.mofcom.gov.cn/lb/201612/20161206051814254.pdf · Corporate Banking Khalil Debs (961-1) 977229 khalil.debs@asib.com LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK

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______________________________________________________________________________CREDITBANK’S NET PROFITS UP TO US$ 22.0 MILLION IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2016

Creditbank announced net profits of US$ 22.0 million in the first half of 2016, up by 31.5% from a total of US$ 16.7 million posted in the corresponding period of 2015, as per Bankdata Financial Services.

The bank’s net interest income reached US$ 37.3 million in the aforesaid period of 2016, against US$ 32.5 million in the same period a year earlier. Net fee and commission income amounted to US$ 7.9 million in the first six months of 2016, up by 4.2% from US$ 7.6 million recorded in the corresponding period of 2015.

Creditbank’s net operating income progressed from US$ 47.4 million in the first six months of 2015 to US$ 54.8 million in the same period of 2016. Total operating expenses edged up by a yearly 7.0% to US$ 29.5 million in the first half of 2016. Out of the total, US$ 17.9 million went to staff expenses (+6.9% year-on-year) and US$ 9.8 million to administrative and other operating expenses (+4.8% year-on-year).

The bank’s cost-to-income ratio declined from 55.5% in the first half of last year to 51.0% in thecorresponding period of 2016.

Creditbank’s total assets stood at US$ 3.5 billion at end-June 2016, higher by 5.1% relative to end-2015. Net loans and advances attained US$ 1.8 billion at end-June 2016, up by 5.4% from end-2015. Customers’ deposits reached US$ 3.0 billion, up by 5.7% from end-2015. Shareholders’ equity progressed by 6.0% from end-2015 to stand at US$ 296.1 million at end-June 2016.

The bank’s return on average assets ratio rose from 1.09% in the first six months of 2015 to 1.29% in the corresponding period of 2016, while the return on average equity ratio rose from 14.48% in the first half of 2015 to 15.28% in the first half of 2016.

CREDITBANK'S MAJOR BALANCE SHEET AGGREGATES (US$ BILLION)

Sources: Bankdata Financial Services, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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CAPITAL MARKETS_____________________________________________________________________________MONEY MARKET: LARGE WEEKLY EXPANSION IN MONEY SUPPLY (M4)

The overnight rate didn’t shift its stance this week, standing at 3.00% this week amid ample LP liquidity at hand. As to Certificates of Deposits, the Central Bank of Lebanon sold LP 115 billion in the 45-day category and LP 20 billion in the 60-day category, bringing total subscriptions in both categories to LP 1,142 billion since the beginning of the year 2016. On the secondary CDs market, 10-year and 15-year papers traded 75 bps and 100 bps below the yield curve. In parallel, the latest monetary statistics released by the Central Bank of Lebanon showed that the resident banking deposits expanded by LP 650 billion during the week ending 3rd of November 2016 which saw Lebanon's presidential elections. A closer look at deposits shows that FC deposits increased by LP 723 billion (the equivalent of US$ 480 million), while LP deposits retreated by LP 73 billion as a result of LP 74 billion decline in LP time deposits and a shy rise in LP demand deposits of LP 1 billion. These weekly variations compare to an average weekly rise of US$ 68 million for FC deposits and an average weekly growth of LP 52 billion for LP deposits since the beginning of 2016. Within this context, the total money supply in its large sense (M4) registered its highest weekly expansion of LP 990 billion since the 1st of September 2016, mainly driven by a LP 343 billion growth in money in circulation. This compared to an average weekly growth in money supply (M4) of LP 155 billion since the beginning of 2016. On a cumulative basis, money supply (M4) expanded by LP 7,710 billion since the beginning of 2016. This is the result of a growth in FC deposits of LP 5,525 billion (the equivalent of US$ 3,665 million), an increase in LP time deposits of LP 2,090 billion, a rise in money supply (M1) of LP 285 billion, and a fall in Tbs held by the public of LP 190 billion since the beginning of 2016.

_____________________________________________________________________________TREASURY BILLS MARKET: WEEKLY NOMINAL SURPLUS OF LP 590 BILLION

The latest auction’s results dated November 17, 2016 showed that the three-month, one-year and five-year categories had an allocation of 38.2%, 32%, and 5.1% respectively. In parallel, the auction results for value date 10th of November 2016 released by the Central Bank of Lebanon showed that total subscriptions amounted to LP 756 billion and were distributed as follows: LP 61 billion in the six-month category, LP 432 billion in the three-year category and LP 263 billion in the seven-year category. These compare to weekly maturities of LP 166 billion, resulting in a weekly nominal surplus of LP 590 billion.

INTEREST RATES

Source: Bloomberg

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TREASURY BILLS

Sources: Central Bank of Lebanon, Bloomberg

_____________________________________________________________________________FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET: BDL’S FOREIGN ASSETS STABLE AT US$ 40.6 BILLION

The LP/US$ interbank rate continued to range between LP 1,514 and LP 1,514.50 during this week amid reduced offer for the green currency, while market players continued to meet the commercial demand for the greenback. The Central Bank of Lebanon’s latest bi-monthly balance sheet ending 15th of November 2016 showed that foreign assets rose by a mere US$ 11 million since end-October 2016, standing stable at US$ 40.6 billion mid-November 2016. Within this context, the Central Bank of Lebanon’s foreign assets continued to cover 74.9% of LP money supply, with this coverage ratio rising to 95.8% when accounting for gold reserves estimated at US$ 11.3 billion mid-November. In addition, the BDL’s foreign assets continued to cover 25.6 months of imports. These ratios reflect the Central Bank’s sustained strong ability to defend the currency peg and maintain stable monetary conditions.

EXCHANGE RATES

Source: Bank Audi’s Group Research Department______________________________________________________________________________STOCK MARKET: SHY EQUITY PRICE INCREASES WEEK-ON-WEEK

The BSE total trading value amounted to US$ 16.2 million this week as compared to US$ 11.4 million in the previous week and an average weekly trading value of US$ 17.7 million since the beginning of the year 2016. As far as prices are concerned, the BSE price index registered a shy price rise of 0.1% to close at 108.04. Banking stocks captured 84.2% of the total trading value. Bank Audi’s “listed” share price rose by 1.6% to US$ 6.50. Bank Audi’s GDR price nudged up by 0.3% to close at US$ 6.60. BLOM’s “listed” share price

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EUROBONDS INDICATORS

Source: Bank Audi’s Group Research Department

AUDI INDICES FOR BSE

Sources: Beirut Stock Exchange, Bank Audi’s Group Research Department

increased by a shy 0.1% to close at US$ 10.11. BLOM’s GDR price stood unchanged at US$ 10.60. Byblos Bank’s “listed” share price remained stable at US$ 1.67. Solidere shares accounted for 13.6% of activity. Solidere “A” share price rose by 0.9% to US$ 11.45. Solidere “B” share price closed 0.2% higher at US$ 11.40. Industrials accounted for the remaining 2.14% of the total. Holcim Liban’s share price extended its downward trajectory for the second consecutive week, falling by 9.5% to close at US$ 13.87. The BSE’s weekly performance compared to a 1.0% rise in broader Arabian markets’ share prices (as per S&P Pan-Arab Composite Index) and a 0.7% decline in broader emerging markets’ share prices (as per S&P Emerging Frontier Super Composite Index).

_____________________________________________________________________________BOND MARKET: LOWER BOND PRICES WEEK-ON-WEEK

Bond prices followed a downward trajectory this week, tracking US Treasuries declines and as commercial banks continued to sell their Eurobond holdings to international institutional investors in the aim of bolstering their FC liquidity. Within this context, foreigners bought papers maturing in November 2019, April 2020 and April 2021 in decent volumes and at relatively lower prices. That being said, the weighted average yield dropped by 32 basis points week-on-week to close the week at 6.43%. The weighted average spread expanded by 17 basis points to reach 463 basis points amid lower increases in US Treasuries yields. For instance, the 5-year US treasury yield rose from 1.56% last week to 1.74% this week and the 10-year benchmark US Treasury yield went up by 13 basis points week-on-week to reach 2.28% amid rising expectations that the new US President-elect would expand fiscal stimulus to boost US economic growth, which lifted the probability of an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve on December 14, 2016 to 96%. As to the cost of insuring debt, Lebanon’s five-year CDS spreads continued to hover between 510 and 540 basis points this week.

Page 12: Lebanon Weekly Monitor (47) 14-11-2016images.mofcom.gov.cn/lb/201612/20161206051814254.pdf · Corporate Banking Khalil Debs (961-1) 977229 khalil.debs@asib.com LEBANON MARKETS: WEEK

12Week 47 November 14 - November 20, 2016

NOVEMBER 14 - NOVEMBER 20, 2016

WEEK 47

INTERNATIONAL MARKET INDICATORS

Sources: Bloomberg, Bank Audi's Group Research Department

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