Manual CLIMATE PROOFING TOOL · 1.3 Rationale and objective of the Climate Proofing Tool The...

Manual

CLIMATE PROOFING TOOLJuly 2010

Published by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH

PARA - Poverty Alleviation in Rural Areas Project 07 Le Thanh Ton Street, Ward 2Tra Vinh TownViet Nam T +84 74 35 00 137F +84 74 38 68 802I http://www.gtz.de

Climate Protection Programme for Developing Countries P.O. Box 518065726 EschbornGermanyT +49 6196 79 24 25F +49 6196 79 80 24 25E [email protected] http://www.gtz.de/klima

© gtz, 2010

Manual

CLIMATE PROOFING TOOL

July 2010

ABBREVIATIONS...........................................................................4

GLOSSARY....................................................................................4

1 Introduction 61.1 Global climate change: an overview..................................61.2 Climate change and local development planning in

Tra Vinh Province ..............................................................71.3 Rationale and objective of the Climate Proofing Tool ........9

2 The Climate Proofing Tool 102.1 Overview of the Climate Proofing Tool ............................10

3 STEP 1: Analyse adaptation needs........................................123.1 Task 1: Select value chain...............................................143.2 Task 2: Identify climate trends .........................................143.3 Task 3: Identify bio-physical impacts ...............................153.4 Task 4: Identify socio-economic impacts .........................163.5 Task 5: Identify level of risk .............................................163.6 Task 6: Review existing adaptive capacity ......................163.7 Task 7: Identify adaptation options ..................................17

Table ofContents

4 STEP 2: Selection of feasible adaptation options 184.1 Task 1: Screen and select the adaptation options...........184.2 Task 2: Prioritise the screened and selected adaptation

options.............................................................................19

5 STEP 3: Integration of selected adaptation options intoCMOP/moSEDP 205.1 Task 1: Develop recommendations from the Climate

Proofing WS ....................................................................205.2 Task 2: Formulate a commune adaptation action plan....215.3 Task 3: Implement and monitor

the adaptation action plan ...............................................21

6 List of Annexes 226.1 Annex 1: Support Materials –

Table of Adaptation Needs – Examples...........................226.2 Annex 2: Table: Identification of changes in local

weather and environment caused by climate change .....266.3 Annex 3: Climate Change Information Leaflet for

Tra Vinh Province ............................................................276.4 Annex 4: Risk Assessment Matrix ...................................296.5 Annex 5: Matrix: Prioritisation of Selected Adaptation

Options ............................................................................31

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GLOSSARYAdaptation Adaptation measures are planned strategies or

responses and actions to potential or experiencedimpacts of climate change that lead to a reduction inrisks or to the realization of benefits. In short: adaptation means doing things differentlybecause of climate change.

Climate Climate is the force that drives long-term changes inweather. It therefore determines the characteristics of aregion (seasons, average temperature etc.). It isdescribed by long-term statistics (e.g. average minimumand maximum temperature).

Climate Change Climate change can express itself through a variety ofchanges in weather and environment, such astemperature, rainfall, storms, etc.

ABBREVIATIONS CC Climate ChangeCIG Common Interest GroupCMOP Commune Market Opportunity Plan HH HouseholdMOI Market Opportunity IdeamoSEDP market-oriented Social Economic

Development PlanSEDP Social Economic Development PlanVC Value ChainWS WorkshopWSCG Women’s Savings and Credit Group

Climate Proofing Tool 5

It is often not possible to quantify these changes inprecise terms. However, it is important to know what thegeneral trend is: What changes do scientists predict anddoes this concur with our own observations? Havetemperature increases been felt in recentyears/decades? Has there been more or less rainfall?Have there been stronger storms or more erraticweather conditions etc.?

Effects of climate change on natural and socialsystems. The risks inherent in the impacts of climatechange along with the adaptive capacity of the localpopulation constitute vulnerability.

CMOP CMOP is the abbreviation for Commune MarketOpportunity Planning. CMOP is a planning process atcommune level which is market orientated and pro poor.Consequently, CMOP is used to develop communeeconomic plans, taking account of the marketopportunities identified by market studies and theMOIs/business ideas of CIGs and HHs. CMOP isimplemented to support the poor in the communes.CMOP creates conditions that enable the poor toaccess markets more easily. Thus, the poor areempowered to actively and sustainably improve theirlivelihoods.

moSEDP moSEDP stands for market-oriented and pro-poorsocial economic planning. This process has threedefining characteristics: (1) participation of local people,departments, mass organizations and enterprises, (2)market orientation, and (3) focus on poverty reduction.Therefore, the process includes the key elements of theCMOP process.

Weather Weather is what we can feel, and is the subject ofweather forecasts in radio and television broadcasts. Itis the day-to-day state of the atmosphere, meaning thedaily temperature, humidity, rainfall and wind. It oftenchanges quickly from one day to the next.

ClimateChangeImpacts

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1.1 Global climate change: an overviewGlobal climate change is one of the most serious challengesof our time. It is commonly known as global warming andassociated with a rise in sea levels. Natural disasters andextreme climatic events are increasing in number, affectingthe lives of humans across the globe. Viet Nam is expectedto be one of the countries most affected by climate change.This is will lead to major impacts in the following sectors:water resources, agriculture, forestry, fishery, energy,transportation and health.

Changing climate conditions in Viet Nam over the last 50years include an increase in annual average air temperatureby approximately 0.5 - 0.7°C, whilst coastal sea levels haverisen by approximately 20 cm. Climate change has resultedin more severe and/or frequent extreme weather events inViet Nam, with cyclonic storms, floods and droughts at theforefront.

Introduction

1 ISPONRE (2009): Viet Nam Assessment Report on Climate Change (VARCC).

1


The people of Viet Nam have ofcourse not necessarily noticed anydirect increase in annual meantemperature because, as always,some days have been hotter andsome cooler. Also, no one hasactually observed sea levels riseon a day-to-day basis. However,over time, people have generallyperceived changes in the weatherfor example, or noticed that theircrops were not growing as well asthey used to, or that saline waterwas intruding further into areas ithad never been seen in before.

The implications of global climate change are not only likelyto endanger efforts to reduce poverty, but they might makepoverty even worse. Adaptation to climate change is animportant issue, and one that is already being taken seriouslyboth by the Vietnamese government in its developmentstrategies, as well as by the local population seeking tosecure a sustainable livelihood. In response to climatechange and in order to be able to mitigate greenhouse gasemissions and adapt to the impacts of climate change, VietNam issued Decision 158 ‘National Target Program toRespond to Climate Change’ in December 2008. For its part,Tra Vinh Province issued the Decision 264 ‘ImplementationAction Plan on the National Target Program to Cope with CCin Tra Vinh Province’ and Decision 59 ‘Awareness-Raising forCommunity and Community-based Disaster RisksManagement in Tra Vinh Province, 2010-2020’.

1.2 Climate change and local development planning inTra Vinh Province

The Mekong Delta, and therefore also Tra Vinh Province, isone of the regions that will be most affected by climatechange impacts.

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Tra Vinh Province is situated in the Mekong Delta and is verylow lying, with approximately half of its land area at less thanone metre above mean sea level. In addition, the province islocated between the two largest arms of the Mekong River. Itis predicted that Tra Vinh will be among the provinces thatwill be affected earliest and most severely by sea level riseand saline intrusion, by the increase in the frequency andintensity of storms and floods, as well as by changes inrainfall patterns. Damage caused by climate change couldpotentially affect everybody in the province.

Research into the way people in Tra Vinh Province viewclimate change and its impacts on their lives and workrevealed that people had become aware of: (a) highertemperatures, (b) more storms, (c) heavier rainfall overshorter periods of time, (d) more droughts, (e) a shorter rainyseason and a longer dry season. Saline water intrusion in thedry season still appears to be of minor importance. However,it is starting to become a more important issue for the localpopulation in some parts of Tra Vinh Province.

Changing climate conditions and more extreme weatherevents could impact negatively on different sectors and


people’s livelihoods in Tra Vinh Province. Highertemperatures and saline water intrusion, for instance, couldlead to a drop in rice yields. However, there are also ways ofavoiding losses, e.g. through the choice of rice varieties. Byanalysing how economic activities, infrastructure, nature orpeople might be affected by climate change, we can identifywhat can be done to avoid losses or damage. Adaptation thenmeans doing things differently in response to climate change.It is therefore important to check ongoing developmentactivities during the planning stage already and, if necessary,to identify adaptation options and include them in the localdevelopment plan (CMOP/ moSEDP).

1.3 Rationale and objective of the Climate Proofing ToolThe probable consequences of global climate change havenot yet been addressed or fully implemented in localplanning in Tra Vinh Province. Therefore, a Climate ProofingTool has been developed and adapted for local developmentplanning here.

The Climate Proofing Tool allows us 1) to identify thoseactivities or value chains that are at risk or under threat insome way from climate change and 2) to analyse whetheradditional measures are necessary to be able to implementthe value chain successfully. If this initial screening showsthere is no need for additional measures in order toimplement the planned value chain successfully, this wouldimply there is no major threat to the value chain and that thevalue chain is well planned. In some cases, however, ClimateProofing will show that additional measures or changes areneeded to the originally planned value chains in order torespond to climate change. These additional measures orchanges to original plans, which are referred to as adaptationmeasures, are required if the planned value chain is to beimplemented sustainably.

Therefore, the aim of the systematic approach used in theClimate Proofing Tool is to increase the chances of successof the planned and implemented value chains.

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The ClimateProofing Tool

2.1 Overview of the Climate Proofing Tool The Climate Proofing Tool consists of 3 steps:

1. Analyse adaptation needs; 2. Select feasible adaptation options;3. Integrate selected adaptation options into CMOP/

moSEDP.

OVERVIEW ON THE CLIMATE PROOFING TOOL

Step to take

How do you do it?

Step 1Analyse adaptation

needs

Step 1: Task 1-7Organise a Climate

Proofing workshop toimplement task 1-7.

Method climate ProofingTable.

Step 1: Task 1-2Cotinue Climate Proofingworkshop to implement

task 1-2.

Method: checklist &Prioritisation

Step 1: Task 1-3Cotinue Climate Proofingworkshop to implement

task 1-2.

Task 3 takes place theworkshop

Step 2Select feasible

adaptation options

Step 3Integrate selectedadaptation options

into CMOP/moSEDP

2


Step 1 analyses whether a specific value chain needs to bemodified in any way, and looks at the possible adaptationoptions. The analysis is structured in a table that guides theuser through seven tasks. The aim is to glean information thatwill show whether or not the proposed activity needs to beadapted. And, if there is a need, it proposes various optionsfor making these changes. At the end of step 1, ClimateProofing Tool users have a list of possible adaptation options.

Step 2 helps us decide which of the possible adaptationoptions would be best. In this step, criteria such as costeffectiveness apply. Completion of step 2 gives us aprioritised list of feasible adaptation options.

In step 3, theadaptation optionsare integrated intothe project designand implementation.The changes to theoriginal plan areoutlined as are theprecise stages atwhich thesemeasures will becarried out. Oncethis has been done,the workshop ends.Full integrationoccurs during theoperational planningfor CMOP/moSEDP.The followingdescribes in detailwhat questions, methods and support materials areaddressed in each step.

Steps 1 and 2 take place in a workshop where identified valuechains as defined in the CMOP/ moSEDP process arechecked. Step 3 is started during the workshop but the mainpart of step 3 is conducted during implementation.

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3Step 1 consists of seven tasks and involves the step-by-stepcompletion of the following table, which is referred to as theTable of Adaptation Needs. Two example tables are given inAnnex 6.1. Please use a separate Table of Adaptation Needsfor each value chain.

Each step is explained separately in the relevant section.

STEP 1Analyse adaptationneeds


Tab

le 1

: Ta

ble

of

Ad

apta

tio

n N

eed

s –

Task

1-7

A: T

ask

1

Sele

ct

Valu

e C

hain

Whic

h v

alu

ech

ain

as

defin

ed in

the

CM

OP

/moS

ED

P m

ight be

impact

ed b

ycl

imate

change?

B: T

ask

2

Identif

y C

limate

Tre

nds

Whic

h c

limate

trends

affe

ctth

e s

ele

cted

valu

e c

hain

?

C: T

ask

3

Identif

y B

io-p

hys

ical

Impact

s

What happens

to the

resp

ect

ive

valu

e c

hain

ifit

is a

ffect

ed

by

the c

limate

trend

sele

cted?

D: T

ask

4

Identif

y S

oci

o-

Eco

nom

icIm

pact

s

Whic

h s

oci

al

and e

conom

icim

pact

s do t

he

identif

ied b

io-

phys

ical

impact

s have

on t

he lo

cal

popula

tion?

E: T

ask

5

Identif

y Leve

l of

Ris

k

What

is t

he

leve

l of

risk

for

the s

ele

cted

impact

s (a

) in

the n

ext

year,

and (

b)

in t

he

next

10 y

ears

?

In th

ene

xtye

ar

In th

ene

xt 1

0ye

ars

F: T

ask

6

Revi

ew

exi

stin

gA

daptiv

eC

apaci

ty

Do a

dapta

tion

optio

ns

already

exi

stw

ith r

egard

to

the s

ele

cted

impact

s?If

yes,

whic

hones?

G: T

ask

7

Identif

y A

dapta

tion

Optio

ns

What

can w

e d

oto

min

imis

eand/o

r avo

idth

ese

impact

s o

nth

e r

esp

ect

ive

valu

e c

hain

?

14 Manual

3.1 Task 1: Select value chainThis task aims to identify the most important value chainaffected by climate trends. In order to do so, please answerthe following question: Which value chain as defined in theCMOP/ moSEDP can be impacted by climate change?

To-do list: 1. List all planned identified value chains of the

CMOP/moSEDP.2. Answer the question: ‘Which of the value chains are (a)

the most important in the commune, and (b) could beaffected by climate change?’

3. Select one value chain that is most important and isaffected by climate change.

4. Write down the result in column [A] in the Table ofAdaptation Needs.

3.2 Task 2: Identify climate trends This task aims to identify the relevant climate trends for thecommune. In order to identify the changes felt in localweather and environment, you need to answer the followingquestion: Which climate trends affect the selected valuechain?

You can use the information leaflet on climate change in TraVinh Province in Annex 6.3 which includes predictions onclimate change by scientists along with informationconcerning climate/weather changes perceived in Tra Vinh.However, each commune may experience climate trendsdifferently. Therefore, they should each elaborate their ownchanging climate/weather trends during the workshop.

To-do list:1. Fill in the table in Annex 6.2 ‘Identification of changes in

local weather and environment caused by climatechange’; make use of the figure in Annex 6.3.

2. Mark climate trends that show changes: (a) shorter, (b)longer, and (c) other.

3. Check whether the marked climate trends are affectingthe value chain.

4. Select up to three most important climate trends.


5. Write down the selected trends in column [B] in the Tableof Adaptation Needs.

3.3 Task 3: Identify bio-physical impactsThis task aims to identify the bio-physical impacts derivingfrom the selected climate trends on the value chain. To do so,please answer the following question: What happens to theselected value chain, if it is affected by the selected climatetrend?

To-do list: 1. Consider the following question: How is the selected value

chain in the commune impacted by the climate trends youhave identified?

2. Write down the impacts in column [C] in the Table ofAdaptation Needs.

3. Select the two most important impacts for each climatetrend and move to task 4.

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3.4 Task 4: Identify socio-economic impactsThis task aims to identify the socio-economic impacts derivingfrom bio-physical impacts. To do so, please answer thefollowing question: Which social and economic impacts dothe bio-physical impacts you have identified have on the localpopulation?

To-do list:1. Consider the following question: How do the bio-physical

impacts influence the citizens’ social and economic lives?2. Write down the impacts in column [D] in the Table of

Adaptation Needs.3. Select the two most important impacts for each climate

trend and move on to task 5.

3.5 Task 5: Identify level of riskThis task aims to identify the level of risk for the selectedimpacts. To do so, please answer the following question:What is the level of risk for the selected impacts (a) next yearand (b) in the next 10 years?

To-do list: 1. Use the risk assessment matrix in Annex 6.4 to identify

the levels of risk for the selected impacts.2. Write down the levels of risk you have identified: [low],

[medium], [high] for each selected impact in column [E]in the Table of Adaptation Needs. Analyse the level of riskfor (a) next year, and (b) the next 10 years.

3. Select the impacts that have [(a): high and/or (b): high]and [(a): medium and (b): medium] risk and move on totask 6.

3.6 Task 6: Review existing adaptive capacityThis task aims to review the existing adaptive capacity of thelocal population. To do so, please answer the followingquestion: Do adaptation options already exist with regard tothe selected impacts? If yes, which ones?


To-do list: Answer the following question: At present, doesyour commune have any adaptation measures?

o Yes Specify and write down youranswers in column [F] in theTable of Adaptation Needs. Ifthere are sufficient adaptionmeasures in place, cross outthe impacts.

o Yes, but not enough Check again to see whetherfurther adaptation measures areneeded to adapt to impacts infuture.

o No Proceed with task 7.

3.7 Task 7: Identifya d a p t a t i o noptions

This task aims toidentify adaptationoptions for impacts onthe selected valuechain. To do so,please answer thefollowing question:What can we do tominimise and/or avoidthese impacts on thegiven value chain?

To-do list:1. Consider the

following question: What can we do to minimise and/oravoid the impacts?

2. Brainstorm all adaptation ideas you can find.3. Write down the options in column [G] in the Table of

Adaptation Needs.

18 Manual

Selection of feasibleadaptation options

STEP 2

44.1 Task 1: Screen and select the adaptation optionsThis task aims to screen and select feasible adaptationoptions for the value chain identified as impacted by climatetrends.

To-do list: Answer the following questions for eachadaptation option in the group.

1. Do we have or can we hire the technical skills toimplement the measure?o No cross out the option

o Yes continue with the 2nd question

2. Do we have enough resources to implement this option?o Yes cross out the option

o No proceed with task 2


4.2 Task 2: Prioritise the screened and selectedadaptation options

This task aims to prioritise the screened and selectedadaptation options for further integration intoCMOP/moSEDP. Please answer the following question: Whatis the priority status of each of the selected adaptation optionscompared to the other measures?

To-do list:1. Use the prioritisation matrix in Annex 6.5 to prioritise the

selected adaptation options.

2. Give points for each option: 1 = not fulfilled, 5 = totallyfulfilled.

3. Add up the points + rank the options: highest point score= 1st priority

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Integration of selected adaptationoptions intoCMOP/moSEDP

STEP 3

55.1 Task 1: Develop recommendations from the Climate

Proofing WSThis task aims to develop recommendations for integratingthe selected adaptation options into CMOP/moSEDP. Takethe list of selected and prioritised adaption options and clarifytheir integration into existing CMOP/moSEDP.

To-do list: Answer the following questions for eachadaptation option you have selected.

1. Based on the Climate Proofing results, do you need tomodify your original CMOP/moSEDP? o Yes Specify

o No Continue with the 2nd question

2. Based on the Climate Proofing results, do you need toinclude additional activities in your original plan?o Yes Specify

o No Your plan is climate proofed!


5.2 Task 2: Formulate acommune adaptationaction plan

Summarise the ClimateProofing Workshop results asfollows: 1. Table of Adaptation Needs

resulting from step 12. The selected and prioritised

adaption options resultingfrom step 2

3. Fill in this action plan tablebased on the results of step3/task 1:

5.3 Task 3: Implement and monitor the adaptationaction plan

This is to be done once the commune adaptation plan isapproved. The plan must list what will be done and the exactsteps that need to be taken. This constitutes an importantannex for CMOP/moSEDP.

Based on the approved plans, the respective institutions needto develop and announce the commune adaptation actionplan and assign specific tasks to individuals and relevant staffto ensure that the activities are implemented as outlined inthe approved adaptation action plan.

During the implementation process, it is necessary tocontinuously monitor and evaluate strengths and difficulties,as well as to propose solutions or make recommendations forsolutions to the executing agencies.

No Whatis to bedone?

123

Who isresponsible?

How does theimplementationwork?

Who are thebeneficiaries?

Estimatedbudget?

When?

22 Manual

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yield

Loss

of

inco

me d

ue t

o lo

we

r o

rlo

ss o

f yi

eld

hence

ris

k of fa

llin

gback

into

pove

rty

Co

uld

ha

pp

en

& ma

jor

da

ma

ge

= H

igh

ris

k

Co

uld

ha

pp

en

& min

or

da

ma

ge

= L

ow

ris

k

Co

uld

ha

pp

en

& min

or

da

ma

ge

= L

ow

ris

k

Will

no

th

ap

pe

n=

Lo

w r

isk

Will

no

th

ap

pe

n

= L

ow

ris

k

Co

uld

ha

pp

en

&

min

or

da

ma

ge

= L

ow

ris

k

Co

uld

ha

pp

en

& min

or

da

ma

ge

= L

ow

ris

k

Co

uld

ha

pp

en

& ma

jor

da

ma

ge

= H

igh

ris

k

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

&m

ajo

r d

am

ag

e=

Hig

h r

isk

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

&m

ino

r d

am

ag

e=

Lo

w r

isk

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

&m

ino

r d

am

ag

e=

Lo

w r

isk

Co

uld

ha

pp

en

&

ma

jor

da

ma

ge

= M

ed

ium

ris

k

Co

uld

ha

pp

en

&

ma

jor

da

ma

ge

= M

ed

ium

ris

k

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

& m

ino

rd

am

ag

e=

Lo

w r

isk

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

&m

ino

r d

am

ag

e=

Lo

w r

isk

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

&m

ajo

r d

am

ag

e=

Hig

h r

isk

•In

cre

ase

de

pth

s o

f rice

pa

dd

yfie

lds

•E

nfo

rce

loca

l ea

rly

wa

rnin

gsy

ste

m a

nd

dis

ast

er

pre

pa

red

ne

ss

•D

red

ge

ca

na

ls•

Mo

nito

r w

ate

r q

ua

lity

•E

sta

blis

h fa

rmin

g c

oo

pe

rativ

es

tolim

it in

com

e lo

ss

•M

on

itor

wa

ter

qu

alit

y•

Inco

rpo

rate

clim

ate

ch

an

ge

/ se

ale

vel r

ise

sce

na

rio

s in

wa

ter

ma

na

ge

me

nt p

lan

s

•E

nh

an

ce c

oa

sta

l pro

tect

ion

(dyk

es,

ma

ng

rove

s e

tc.)

•In

corp

ora

te p

oss

ible

flo

od

ing

are

as

in d

eve

lop

me

nt p

lan

nin

g

•P

lan

fo

r p

oss

ible

re

loca

tion

an

dm

igra

tion

•In

corp

ora

te c

lima

te c

ha

ng

esc

en

ario

s in

wa

ter

ma

na

ge

me

nt

pla

ns

•In

tro

du

ce fle

xib

le m

ech

an

ism

sin

to w

ate

r m

an

ag

em

en

t to

be

ab

le to

re

act

to

su

dd

en

imp

act

s

•A

dju

st c

rop

pin

g c

ale

nd

ar

•H

arv

est

ra

inw

ate

r

•E

nh

an

ce w

ate

r p

um

ps

•S

ele

ct d

rou

gh

t a

nd

sa

lt-re

sist

ant

varie

ties

•D

ive

rsify

cro

ps

24 Manual

Clim

ate

Tre

nd

Hig

her

tem

pera

ture

,heat w

ave

s&

ext

rem

eheat

Longer

dry

seaso

n &

incr

easi

ng

dro

ught

More

inte

nse

rain

fall

eve

nts

&th

unders

tor

ms

Bio

-Phys

ical

Impact

Affe

ctin

gco

nst

ruct

ion

work

ers

’ health

Cem

ent

qualit

ysu

ffers

, le

adin

g t

ole

ss d

ura

ble

road

surf

ace

Low

er

wate

r le

vels

in r

ive

rs a

nd

canals

Flo

odin

g

Soci

o-E

conom

ic I

mpact

Hig

her

pro

duct

ion c

ost

s

Short

er

road li

fe-t

ime a

nd

hig

her

pro

duct

ion c

ost

s

Wate

rways

less

suita

ble

fo

rtr

ansp

ort

Inte

rruptio

n o

f tr

ansp

ort

lea

din

gto

loss

of

inco

me

Dest

ruct

ion o

f tr

ansp

ort

infr

ast

ruct

ure

leadin

g t

o h

igh

cost

of

repair a

nd m

ain

ten

an

ce

In th

e y

ea

ra

he

ad

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

&m

ino

r d

am

ag

e=

Me

diu

m R

isk

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

&m

ajo

r d

am

ag

e=

Hig

h R

isk

Co

uld

ha

pp

en

& min

or

da

ma

ge

= L

ow

Ris

k

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

&M

ino

r d

am

ag

e=

Lo

w R

isk

Co

uld

ha

pp

en

& ma

jor

da

ma

ge

= H

igh

Ris

k

Ad

ap

tatio

n O

ptio

ns

•M

ain

tain

fle

xib

le c

on

stru

ctio

nsc

he

du

le

•U

se fe

asi

ble

co

nst

ruct

ion

ma

teria

ls

•Id

en

tify

alte

rna

tive

me

an

s o

ftr

an

spo

rt

•E

nh

an

ce c

oa

sta

l pro

tect

ion

(dik

es,

ma

ng

rove

s e

tc.)

•E

nfo

rce

loca

l ea

rly

wa

rnin

gsy

ste

m a

nd

dis

ast

er

pre

pa

red

ne

ss

•Id

en

tify

an

d in

corp

ora

te p

oss

ible

floo

din

g a

rea

s in

de

velo

pm

en

tp

lan

nin

g

Leve

l of R

isk

In th

e n

ext

10

yea

rs

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

&m

ino

rd

am

ag

e=

Lo

w R

isk

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

&m

ajo

rd

am

ag

e=

Hig

h R

isk

Co

uld

ha

pp

en

&m

ino

r d

am

ag

e=

Lo

w R

isk

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

&m

ino

rd

am

ag

e=

Lo

w R

isk

Is li

kely

to

ha

pp

en

&m

ajo

rd

am

ag

e=

Hig

h R

isk

Exam

ple

2: T

able

of A

dapt

atio

n N

eeds

for T

rans

port


Sea le

vel

rise

Perm

anent

inundatio

nP

erm

anent

loss

and d

est

ruct

ion

of

infr

ast

ruct

ure

Will

no

th

ap

pe

n

= L

ow

Ris

k

Co

uld

ha

pp

en

&m

ajo

r d

am

ag

e=

Me

diu

m R

isk

•P

lan

fo

r re

loca

tion

of tr

an

spo

rtin

fra

stru

ctu

re

•Id

en

tify

an

d in

corp

ora

te p

oss

ible

floo

din

g a

rea

s in

de

velo

pm

en

tp

lan

nin

g•

Mo

nito

r se

a le

vel r

ise

* P

leas

e no

te th

at th

e se

ctor

sup

port

mat

eria

l has

bee

n de

velo

ped

as a

n ex

ampl

e to

sho

w p

ossi

ble

clim

ate

chan

ge im

pact

s, le

vel o

f ris

ks a

ndad

apta

tion

optio

ns. T

he T

able

onl

y gi

ves

exam

ples

and

is n

ot c

ompl

ete.

Eac

h co

mm

une

has

its s

peci

fic e

colo

gica

l and

soc

io-e

cono

mic

cond

ition

s. T

here

fore

, the

bio

-phy

sica

l and

soc

io-e

cono

mic

impa

cts

of c

limat

e tre

nds,

and

the

leve

l of r

isk

as w

ell a

s ad

apta

tion

optio

nses

peci

ally,

var

y an

d ha

ve to

be

revi

ewed

by

each

com

mun

e. A

lso,

the

tem

plat

e do

es n

ot c

over

all

impa

cts

and

adap

tatio

n op

tions

; add

ition

alim

pact

s an

d ad

apta

tion

optio

ns c

an b

e id

entif

ied

for e

ach

com

mun

e.

26 Manual

In your opinion, what has changed in the local weather and your environment inthe last five years compared to the ten years before (these changes are referredto as ‘climate trends’)? Please mark 1 for each climate trend!

Dry season: o shorter o same as always o longer o don’t knowo other:Please specify

Rainy season: o shorter o same as always o longer o don’t knowo other: Please specify

Temperature: o lower o same as always o higher o don’t knowo other: Please specify

Storm/ strong wind: o less o same as always o more o don’t knowo other:Please specify

Rainfall: o less o same as always o more o don’t knowo other: Please specify

Other: ____ o _______o _______ o ________o _________o

Other: ____ o _______o _______ o ________o _________o

If the following climate trend(s) affect your commune, please check the followingpoints as well:

Flooding: o less o same as always o heavier o don’t know(with fresh water) o other:

Please specify

High tides: o less o same as always o more o don’t knowo other: Please specify

o less o same as always o more o don’t knowo other:Please specify

Drought: o less o same as always o more o don’t knowo other: Please specify

6.2 Annex 2: Table: Identification of changes in local weather andenvironment caused by climate change

(flooding withsalt water)

Saline water intrusion in dry season:


Climate change trends – scientistspredict that:• Sea level will rise by 1 metre or

possibly even more by the year2100.

• Individual thunderstorms willbecome more intensive withmore extreme rainfall. The rainyseason will become shorter.

• Annual rainfall will decrease.• Temperatures will rise during

both the rainy and the dryseason. The dry season willbecome longer, leading to morewidespread droughts.

• Typhoons and tropical storms willbecome stronger and mightpossibly hit the Mekong Deltamore often.

Further Information Sources:• Dasgupta et al. (Worldbank) (2007): The

Impact of Sea Level Rise on DevelopingCountries: A Comparative Analysis:www.globalcollab.org/vietnam-green-building-council/urban-sustainability-adaptation/climate-change-adaptation/wp4136-the-impact-of-sea-level-rise-on-developing-countries-a-comparative-analysis-english-tieng-viet/WPS4136_VietFinal.doc

• DRAGON Institute, Can ThoUniversity/GTZ Tra Vinh (2010): ClimateChange Impacts in Tra Vinh Province.Vulnerability Assessment and Perceptionsof the Local Population/Stakeholders

Climate change trends – asperceived by locals:People in Tra Vinh say local weatherpatterns are changing. Differentpeople interviewed stress differentaspects of these changes, but allconcurred that over the last fewyears temperatures have been risingand rainfall patterns have changed.The key changes perceived by localsinclude:• Higher temperatures• More storms• Heavier rainfall over a shorter

period of time• More droughts, particularly in the

zone affected by saline water • Shorter rainy season and a

longer dry season• Saline water intrusion in the dry

season still appears to be achange of minor importance (butis starting to become moreimportant)

• MONRE (2009): Climate Change, SeaLevel Rise Scenarios for Vietnam:http://svmt.byethost16.com/books/?p=54

• WWF (2008): Assessing the Implicationsof Climate Change at the Provincial Level:Ca Mau:http://assets.panda.org/downloads/tieng_viet_camau_bia_trong.pdf

6.3 Annex 3: Climate Change Information Leaflet for Tra Vinh ProvinceClimate Change Information for Tra Vinh Province, Mekong Delta, Vietnam

28 Manual

Figure: Current climate changes and impacts on Tra Vinh Province: jointresults from the predictions by scientists and perceptions by local people

ImprintThe information used in this factsheet was compiled by the sub-projectClimate Proofing of Local Development Planning in Tra Vinh Province. Thesub-project is supported by the Deutsche Gesellschaft für TechnischeZusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH and is embedded in two projects: PovertyAlleviation in Rural Areas (PARA) and Improving Market Participation of thePoor in Tra Vinh Province (IMPP-TV), which is being implemented incooperation with the Vietnamese Government, GTZ and IFAD. The objectiveof the project is to improve the participation of poor rural people in variousmarkets.

The sub-project is being carried out in cooperation with the DRAGONInstitute of Can Tho University, which conducted a survey on perception ofclimate change (impacts) among local stakeholders in November 2009 anddeveloped climate (change) risk maps and charts for Tra Vinh Province.

Agricultural practices are affected by climate change:Heat, drought, pests and intense rainfall threaten agricultural yields.

Climate Trend Trend

Duration of dry season kDuration of rainy season mTemperature kStorms kAnnual rainfall mExtreme rainfall events kFloods with freshwater gHigh tide (floods with salt water) kSaline water intrusion (dry season) kDroughts hSea level kOther trend: __________________


Task-Explanation:Level of risk for the year ahead 1) Ask the following questions to ascertain bio-physical impact: (a) Could

the bio-physical impact happen in the course of the next year? or (b) isthe bio-physical impact likely to happen in the course of the next year?

2) Choose one of the two answers.3) Ask the following questions for the respective socio-economic impact:

(a) If the bio-physical impact occurs, would there be a major negativeeconomic damage? or (b) If the bio-physical impact occurs, would therebe minor negative damage resulting from the bio-physical impacts?

4) Choose one of the two answers.5) The level of risk is the field of your two chosen answers.

6.4 Annex 4: Risk Assessment Matrix

30 Manual

Level of Risk for the next 10 years:Same procedure as for the “Level of risk for the year ahead”.Note that the weighting of risks differs because short term losses areconsidered more relevant for local planning than longer term losses.

6.5

An

nex

5:

Mat

rix:

Pri

ori

tisa

tio

n o

f S

elec

ted

Ad

apta

tio

n O

pti

on

s


Co

mp

ared

to

oth

er o

pti

on

s...

…does

this

optio

n a

dapt better

to C

Cim

pact

s?[1

= n

ot g

ood

… 5

= v

ery

good

]

…is

this

optio

n c

heaper?

[1 =

exp

ensi

ve …

5 =

ver

y ch

eap]

…is

this

optio

n m

ore

sust

ain

able

inpro

tect

ing a

gain

st the C

C im

pact

s?[1

= n

ot s

usta

inab

le …

5 =

ver

ysu

stai

nabl

e]

…is

this

optio

n a

n a

ctiv

ity a

lready

incl

uded

in C

MO

P/ m

oS

ED

P b

ut needs

to b

eadju

sted? H

ow

do

we n

eed to a

dju

st it

?[1

= a

djus

ted

a lo

t … 5

= s

light

ly a

djus

ted]

Tota

l Sco

re

Ran

k

AO

1:

AO

2:

AO

3:

AO

4:

AO

5:

Sco

res

for

sele

cted

Ad

apta

tio

n O

pti

on

s (A

O)

Sco

re e

ach

adapta

tion o

ptio

n a

nd e

ach

quest

ion f

rom

1-5

(1

= n

ot

fulfi

lled;

5 =

tota

lly f

ulfi

lled)

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