MedCLIVAR: Programm und Projekt

zur Förderung der Erforschung des Mittelmeerklimas

U. Ulbrich (1), P. Lionello (2)

(1) Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin (uwe.ulbrich@met.fu-berlin.de)

(2) Universität Salento, Lecce (piero.lionello@pd.infn.it)

MedCLIVAR ist ein internationales Programm, das als Projekt des CLIVAR-Programms der WMO die

Koordination und Stimulation von Forschungsaktivitäten zum Mittelmeerklima betreibt. Schwerpunkte des

Programms sind die Beschreibung der Klimaentwicklung im Mittelmeerraum, die Diagnose von Klimavariabilität

auf verschiedenen räumlichen und zeitlichen Skalen, die Erforschung der Mechanismen, welche die beobachtete

Klimavariabilität verursachen, die Analyse von Trends und die Bereitstellung von Klimavorhersagen und -szenarien,

sowie die Untersuchung von Extremereignissen und Klimawirkungen im Mittelmeerraum.

Das gleichnamige Programm der European Science Foundation wird über einen Zeitraum von 5 Jahren gefördert und

wirkt durch die Organisation von thematischen Workshops und Sommerschulen, sowie durch die Bereitstellung von

Kurzstipendien für Forschungsaufenthalte insbesondere jüngerer Wissenschaftler.

Die folgende Broschüre des ESF-Programms gibt detailliert Auskunft über die Arbeitsschwerpunkte:

www.esf.org

MEDITERRANEAN CLIMATE VARIABILITYAND PREDICTABILITY (MedCLIVAR) Standing Committee for Life,Earth and Environmental Sciences (LESC)

RESEARCH NETWORKING PROGRAMME

MedCLIVAR2

The European Science Foundation (ESF) was established in 1974 to create a common European platform forcross-border cooperation in all aspects of scientific research.

With its emphasis on a multidisciplinary and pan-European approach, the Foundation provides the leadershipnecessary to open new frontiers in European science.

Its activities include providing science policy advice (Science Strategy); stimulating co-operation betweenresearchers and organisations to explore new directions (Science Synergy); and the administration of externallyfunded programmes (Science Management). These take place in the following areas: Physical and engineeringsciences; Medical sciences; Life, earth and environmental sciences; Humanities; Social sciences; Polar;Marine; Space; Radio astronomy frequencies; Nuclear physics.

Headquartered in Strasbourg with offices in Brussels, the ESF’s membership comprises 75 national fundingagencies, research performing agencies and academies from 30 European nations.

The Foundation’s independence allows the ESF to objectively represent the priorities of all these members.

Cover picture: Orography and Sea-depth of the Mediterranean region (courtesy of Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, DLR)

MedCLIVAR 3

MedCLIVAR is an international programme whichaims to coordinate and promote the study of theMediterranean climate. MedCLIVAR’s scientificpriorities are: description of climate past evolution,assessment of climate variability at different spaceand time scales, understanding the mechanismsresponsible for it, identifying trends and providingclimate prediction in relation to future emissionscenarios.

The Mediterranean climate is characterised by theMediterranean Sea, which represents a relativelylarge mass of water, and its peculiar geographicallocation: at mid-latitude, on the west side of a largecontinental area, surrounded by three continentswith high mountain ridges, and with a restrictedexchange with the Atlantic Ocean.

In general the Mediterranean climate exhibits hotand dry summers, and mild and rainy winterseasons. However, within such a small spatial scalethere are large climate contrasts as the areaincludes Alpine regions in the north, withpermanent glaciers and relatively high precipitationrates, and subtropical semiarid regions in the southwhere the extended Atlas mountain ridge also playsa major role. Moreover the Mediterranean is atransition zone between mid-latitude climateregimes, located at the border of the mid-latitudestorm track, and the tropical climate, located underthe descending branch of the Hadley cell.

These characteristics make the Mediterraneanregion potentially very sensitive to climate change.Indeed, simulations of future climate scenarios tendto agree that higher emission levels could producea temperature increase larger than the globalaverage value, further reduce precipitation andincrease the interannual variability of bothtemperature and precipitation (floods, droughts andheat waves).

Progress in the understanding of the Mediterraneanclimate has important environmental, societal andeconomical implications. The Mediterranean regionis characterised by large cultural, economical,political, demographic gradients in a situationalready under environmental stress (heat waves,highly variable precipitation, limited waterresources, drought, floods), where lack of readinessand adequate adaptation strategies could result incritical situations, in particular in connection withthe occurrence of extremes and inadequateevaluation of climate change impacts.

The running period of the ESF MedCLIVARResearch Networking Programme is for five yearsfrom May 2006 to May 2011.

Introduction

Winter (DJF) averaged-mean Mediterranean precipitation anomalies(with respect to 1961-1990) from 1500 to 2002, defined as the average

over the land area 10°W to 40°E and 35°N to 47°N (thin black line). The values for the period 1500 to 1900 are reconstructions; data from

1901 to 2002 are from the Climatic Research Unit Norwich, UK.The thick black line is a 30-year smooth ‘minimum slope’ constraint

(mean squared error, MSE=0.856) calculated according to Mann (2004).The dashed horizontal lines are the 2 standard deviations of the period

1961-1990. The driest and the wettest Mediterranean winters forthe reconstruction and the full period are denoted.

(from Luterbacher et al., 2006)

Sketches of the Mediterranean overturning circulation before theEastern Mediterranean Transient (EMT) (top) and during the EMT

(bottom). Before the EMT the Modified Atlantic Water (MAW)moved eastwards to form about 1/3 of the Levantine IntermediateWater (LIW). LIW is then transported westwards branching to the

Adriatic and crossing back to the western basin. After crossing theStrait of Sicily it follows the coasts of the western Mediterranean

anticlockwise. Deep-water formation of about 0.3 Sv took place inthe Adriatic Sea and the Gulf of Lions. During the EMT the MAW

is deflected northwards into the north of the Ionian basinand its eastward transport diminishes. The intermediate water

formation is then deflected northwards into the Cretan Basinwhere about 1 Sv of deep water is formed.

(from Tsimplis et al., 2006)

MedCLIVAR4

• To reconstruct the past climate variability by using amultiproxy approach of available instrumentalobservations (whose dense network includes someof the longest existing time series worldwide),documentary evidence and natural archives; toexplore the physical mechanisms and address theimportance of different forcing factors of pastvariability at different time and space scales usingcoupled-paleoclimate model runs.

• To investigate the connections betweenMediterranean and global climate variability,considering the influence of both the mid-latitudeclimate patterns (e.g. the North Atlantic Oscillation,the Eastern Atlantic pattern and otherteleconnection patterns) and the tropical climatepatterns (e.g. El Niño Southern Oscillation, theAsian and African Monsoons). This includes alsothe study of the role of these patterns on theoccurrence of extreme events in the Mediterraneanarea.

• To understand the mechanisms responsible for theMediterranean Sea circulation, for sea level trendsand variability, for long-term as well as abruptchanges of water mass characteristics, forvariability of dense water formation processes andof vertical stratification.

• To assess the possible feedbacks of theMediterranean dynamics on the global climatesystem. These include the effect of Mediterraneansea surface temperature (SST) on the export ofmoisture to regions around it, on Sahelprecipitation, on large-scale atmosphericcirculation, as well as that of the salty Mediterraneanoutflow across the Gibraltar Strait on the AtlanticMeridional Overturning Circulation.

• To identify the environmental and climatic effectscaused by the strong anthropogenic influence atregional scale to which the Mediterranean regionhas been exposed since ancient time due to heavydemographic pressure. This topic includes thecompilation of a list of critical parameters formonitoring the evolution of the present climate;identification of possible gaps of currently deployedmonitoring networks and suggestions for theirimprovement and extension.

• To understand and predict the response of theMediterranean climate to the increase of radiativelyactive gases and aerosols. This includes theanalysis of the effects on the intensity of extremeand hazardous events (e.g. heat waves, cold spells,

extreme weather, dry periods, floodings), ofconsequences on regional resources (e.g. water,agriculture, energy requirement, etc) and of impactsof climate change in general.

• To make available scientific information and data onregional climate variability, trends and changes topublic opinion, authorities and stakeholders in theMediterranean countries.

MedCLIVAR Objectives

Decadal trends (% relative to the mean over the study period) ofthe average number of cyclones detected in winter (DJFM) basedon NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. The solid line indicates the grid cells

with significant trends at least at the 10% level relative to theperiod 1960-2000. (figure adapted from Trigo, 2006).

P1=SIC-->TYR-->SARD-->ALB= 0.48 Sv P2=SIC-->TYR-->NW-->ALB= 0.15 Sv P3=SIC-->TYR-->SARD-->NW-->ALB= 0.19 Sv

Lower branch of the Mediterranean thermohaline circulation in amodel experiment. The numbers indicate mass transport

expressed in Sv. Particles are released in the Alboran Sea andintegrated forward and backward in time in two Lagrangian

experiments. In a first experiment particles are integrated forwardin time till they reach again the starting section in the Alboran Sea

(ALB). Contrastingly, in the experiment in which particles areintegrated backward in time, particles are stopped when they

reach the ‘ADR’ and ‘LEV’ section in the Eastern basin.(from Artale et al., 2006)

MedCLIVAR promotes several tasks that willfacilitate its implementation. This includes thecollection, quality control and analysis ofobservations plus proxy data (documentary andnatural), the development and application ofcoupled models for describing and understandingthe physical processes responsible forMediterranean climate variability and predictabilityat seasonal, inter-annual, decadal, centennial andmillennial time-scales, the occurrence of extremesembedded in these variations, and the socio-economic impacts of climate change. The tasks ofMedCLIVAR are organised in five groups:

1. Analysis of past climate: construction of quality-controlled paleo-climatic and instrumental datasets in order to extend the record of pastMediterranean climate variability over the time-scales of interest and their comparison withcoupled paleo simulations including natural andanthropogenic forcing

2. Systematic observations of the present climate:construction of homogeneous sets of data forregional climate analysis and comparison withmodel simulations; analysis of the observedclimate record, detection and attribution of theanthropogenic climate signals at regional climatescale. Within this task, MedCLIVAR is particularlyinterested in promoting and validating regionalreanalysis datasets (e.g. those carried out byECMWF and NCEP/NCAR).

3. Understanding climate processes at regionalscale: diagnostic use of oceanic andatmospheric models for the purpose ofunderstanding the processes responsible for thepast and present Mediterranean climatevariability.

4. Simulations of future climate scenarios:production and analysis of model simulationsaiming at identifying the climate response of theMediterranean regions to future emissionscenarios, providing sets of data that could beused for performing regional simulations,creation of an archive of model simulationsrelevant to the Mediterranean region, andassessing the impact of the projected climatechanges

5. Dissemination of results: make availablescientific information on regional climatevariability, trends and changes to public opinion,authorities and stakeholders in theMediterranean countries.

MedCLIVAR within ESF proposes to:

• assist scientists in developing coordinatedresearch projects;

• favour the exchange of information, dataand expertise;

• establish a network of European, Middle-Eastand North African institutes and scientistsactively involved in regional climate studies;

• provide a source of information to assistgovernments and local authorities in decisionmaking;

• provide material and documentation to thepublic and science policy decision-makers toinform them on climate issues.

In order to pursue these goals the followinginitiatives will be undertaken:

Workshops scheduled one per year for five yearson the following themes:• Evaluation of new proxy data to reconstruct

Mediterranean Past Climate • Connections between Mediterranean and global

climate variability• Understanding the mechanisms responsible for

the Mediterranean Sea circulation and sea leveltrends

• Feedbacks of the Mediterranean dynamics in theglobal climate system and its influence on otherregions. Identification of the environmental andclimatic effects caused by the stronganthropogenic influence at the regional scale

• Scenarios of future Mediterranean climate underthe increase of radiatively active gases andaerosols

A Conference scheduled towards the end of theProgramme in order to review progress made andset new challenges

Summer Schools which target PhD students andpost-doc researchers. Two schools are plannedduring the third and fifth year of the project on thefollowing subjects:• Climatic variability, trends and the occurrence of

extreme events• Teleconnections and climate change at regional

scale

Scientists’ exchange grant programme, tooffer to scientists the opportunity for exchanginginformation, sharing data and developing commonwork on the Mediterranean climate. Grants willallow researchers to spend a period (up to fivemonths) in a host institution. Every year about eightproposals will be selected for funding. The subject

MedCLIVAR 5

MedCLIVARImplementation

ESF MedCLIVARInitiatives

MedCLIVAR6

Funding

ESF Research Networking Programmes areprincipally funded by the Foundation’s MemberOrganisations on an à la carte basis. The ESFMedCLIVAR programme is supported by:

• Fonds zur Förderung der WissenschaftlichenForschung (FWF)Austrian Science Fund, Austria

• Research Promotion Foundation, Cyprus

• Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique(CNRS)/Institut National des Sciences del’Univers (INSU)National Centre for Scientific Research/NationalInstitute of Earth Sciences and Astronomy(INSU), France

• Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)German Research Foundation, Germany

• National Hellenic Research Foundation (NHRF),Greece

• Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities,Israel

• Ministry for the Environment and Territory, Italy

• Fundação para e Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT)Foundation for Science and Technology,Portugal

• Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas(CSIC)Council for Scientific Research, Spain

• Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (MEC)Ministry of Education and Science, Spain

• Schweizerischer Nationalfonds (SNF)Swiss National Science Foundation, Switzerland

• Türkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Kurumu(TÜBITAK)The Scientific and Technological ResearchCouncil of Turkey, Turkey

• Natural Environment Research Council (NERC),United Kingdom

ESF MedCLIVARInitiatives

of the proposed research should be relevant to theMedCLIVAR objectives and tasks. Proposalsdevoted to climate dynamics on ecosystems,agriculture, water resources, economic activities,health and social aspects will be given high priority.Moreover, preference will be given to grantscontributing to the development of the MedCLIVARdata archive.

MedCLIVAR Web Pages (http://www.medclivar.eu/and http://www.esf.org/medclivar), the main tool fordistribution of information on the programme, itsadvancement, and main results. The web page willcontain a Mediterranean data archive and links toexisting sets of data with information relevant forthe MedCLIVAR programme. Periodic reports willalso be published on this page, as well as links topublished papers and reports on MedCLIVARrelated research. Dissemination of information isaimed not only at scientists but also at publicopinion, authorities and stakeholders.

Multi Global Model Ensemble average change in precipitationfor the four seasons, 2071-2100 minus 1961-1990,

A2 scenario. Units are % of 1961-1990 value. DJF isDecember-January-February, MAM is March-April-May, JJA is

June-July-August, SON is September-October-November(Courtesy of F. Giorgi).

Arast rma

MedCLIVAR 7

Professor Piero Lionello (Chair)University of SalentoDepartment of Material SciencesVia per Arnesano73100 Lecce ItalyTel: +39 0832 297 085Fax: +39 0832 297 100Email: piero.lionello@unile.it

Dr. Fatima AbrantesInstituto Nacional de Enjenhariatecnologia e Inovaçao (INETInovaçao)Estrada de Portela, ZambujalApartado 75862721-866 AmadoraPortugalTel: +351 21 470 55 35Fax: +351 21 471 90 18Email: fatima.abrantes@ineti.pt

Professor Pinhas AlpertTel-Aviv UniversityDepartment of Geophysics andPlanetary Sciences69978 Tel-Aviv IsraelTel: +972 3 6405689Fax: +972 3 6409282Email: pinhas@cyclone.tau.ac.il

Dr. Reinhard BöhmCentral Institute for Meteorology andGeodynamicsDept of ClimatologyHohe Warte 381190 Vienna AustriaTel: +43 1 36026 2203Fax: +43 1 36026 72Email: reinhard.boehm@zamg.ac.at

Dr. Ricardo Garcia HerreraUniversidad Complutense de MadridFacultad de Ciencias FisicasDpto Fisica de la Tierra IICiudad Universitaria28040 Madrid SpainTel: +34 91 394 4490Fax: +34 91 394 4635Email: rgarciah@fis.ucm.es

Professor Filippo GiorgiAbdus Salam InternationalCentre for Theoretical PhysicsPO Box 586Strada Costiera 1134100 TriesteItalyTel: +39 040 2240 425Fax: +39 040 2240 449E-mail: giorgi@ictp.it

Dr. Laurent LiLMD/IPSL/CNRSUniversité Paris 64 Place JussieuCase Courrier 9975252 Paris FranceTel: +33 1 44 27 84 09Fax: +33 1 44 27 62 72Email: li@lmd.jussieu.fr

Dr. Jürg LuterbacherUniversity of Bern and NCCR ClimateInstitute of GeographyClimatology and MeteorologyHallerstrasse 123012 Bern SwitzerlandTel: +41 31631 8545Fax: +41 31631 8511Email: juerg@giub.unibe.ch

Professor Temel OguzMiddle East Technical UniversityInstitute of Marine SciencesP.O. Box. 28, Erdemli33731 Icel TurkeyTel: +90 324 521 2150Fax: +90 324 521 2327Email: oguz@ims.metu.edu.tr

Dr. Alexander TheocharisHellenic Centre for Marine Research(HCMR)Institute of OceanographyB.P. 71246.7 km Athens-Sounion Av.19013 Anavyssos AtticaGreeceTel: +30 22910 76329Fax: +30 22910 76323Email: alekos@ath.hcmr.gr

Mr. Kyriakos TheophilouMinistry of Agriculture, NaturalRessources and EnvironmentCyprus Meteorological Service1418 Nicosia CyprusTel: +357 22802935Fax: +357 22305500Email: metservice@ms.moa.gov.cy

Dr. Ricardo TrigoCentro de GeofísicaUniversidade de Lisboa (CGUL)IDL. Faculdade de CienciasCampo Grande, Edificio C8, Piso 61749-016 Lisboa PortugalTel: +351 217500855Fax: +351 217500977Email: rmtrigo@fc.ul.pt

Dr. Michael TsimplisNational Oceanography Centre,SouthamptonJames Renell Division for OceanCirculation and ClimateEmpress DockSouthampton SO14 3ZHUnited KingdomTel: +44 2380 596 412Fax: +44 2380 596 204Email: mnt@soc.soton.ac.uk

Professor Uwe UlbrichFreie Universität BerlinInstitut für MeteorologieCarl-Heinrich-Becker-Weg 6-1012165 Berlin GermanyTel: +49 30 838 71186Fax: +49 30 838 71128Email: ulbrich@met.fu-berlin.de

Programme Coordinator

Dr Roberta BoscoloInstituto de Investigacions MariñasConsejo Superior de InvestigacionesCientificasEduardo Cabello 636308 Vigo SpainTel: +34 986 231930 ext 374Fax: +34 986 292762Email: rbos@iim.csic.es

ESF Liaison

Dr. Bernard AvrilScience

Ms. Ellen DegottAdministration

Life, Earth and EnvironmentalSciences Unit (LESC)European Science Foundation 1 quai Lezay-Marnésia BP 90015 67080 Strasbourg cedex FranceTel: +33 (0)3 88 76 71 06Fax: +33 (0)3 88 37 05 32Email: medclivar@esf.org

For the latest information on thisResearch Networking Programmeconsult the MedCLIVAR websites:www.esf.org/medclivar andwww.medclivar.eu

MedCLIVAR Steering Committee

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www.esf.org