Menschliche und künstliche „Intelligenz“ · Digital Transformation Enables + Needs AI 60/70s:...

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Berlin / Bremen / Kaiserslautern / Oldenburg / Osnabrück / Saarbrücken German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence Menschliche und künstliche „Intelligenz“ Zur Natur menschlichen Denkens und den Möglichkeiten technischer Systeme. Wie wirken künstliche Systeme auf die „Natur“ menschlichen Denkens und Handels zurück? Prof. Dr. habil. Jana Koehler 1

Transcript of Menschliche und künstliche „Intelligenz“ · Digital Transformation Enables + Needs AI 60/70s:...

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Berlin / Bremen / Kaiserslautern / Oldenburg / Osnabrück / Saarbrücken

German Research Center for

Artificial Intelligence

Menschliche und künstliche „Intelligenz“

Zur Natur menschlichen Denkens und den Möglichkeiten technischer Systeme. Wie wirken künstliche Systeme auf die „Natur“ menschlichen Denkens und Handels zurück?

Prof. Dr. habil. Jana Koehler

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The Beginnings of Artificial Intelligence

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Alan Turing: Can Machines Think?

A. M. Turing (1950)

Computing Machinery and Intelligence

Mind 49: 433-460

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My Working Definition

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Intelligence

… is the ability to define and set goals

and to develop behavior to achieve these

goals …

Build

Intelligent Agents

Understand

Human Intelligence

Artificial

Intelligence

Cognitive

Science

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Continuous Progress in Key AI Fields

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https://beamandrew.github.io/deeplearning/2017/02/23/deep_learning_101_part1.html

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1992

BackgammonTicTacToe/Checkers Chess

1996/971940s-1970s 2012

Jeopardy

2016

Go Poker Starcraft II

Watson AlphaGo Libratus

Reinforcement

Learning

Monte-

Carlo Tree

Search

Deep

Learning

2019

AlphaStar

2017

Deep Blue

Discounted

Regret

Minimization

Alpha Beta

Pruning Long-/Shortterm

Planning

Policy

Distillation

105/1031 10144 10123 10360Imperfect Information Games

Temporal

Difference

Learning

TD-Gammon

Conflict

Learning

Heuristic Search

and Knowledge

Systematic

Search

© Jana Koehler

> 20 People > 40 People

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Population-based/

Multi-Agent RL

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The PENDULUM of AI Methods

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Nonmonotonic Reasoning

Satisfiability

Mathematical

Optimization

Reasoning about

ActionComputational

Science

Statistics

Constraint Reasoning Model Checking

Planning/Scheduling

Probability

Theory

Bayesian Networks

Neural Networks

Deep Learning

Markov Models

Reinforcement Learning

Ontologies/Knowledge Graphs

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Digital Transformation Enables + Needs AI

60/70s: selected data in small amounts

- support business processes

since 00s: arbitrary data in massive amounts

- revolutionize business models and processes

= Business Transformation leveraging digital capabilities

= Customer experience + Operational excellence

= Efficiency + Flexibility

= Talents and Data as strategic assets

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DFKI – Public-Private Partnership for Innovation

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Est. 1988

34 Professors

> 1100 People

50 M€ in Projects

25 % from Industry

372 Ongoing Projects

Turnover: 80.2 M€ in 2018

Operating Income: 55.2 M€ in 2018

Saarbrücken

Berlin

Bremen

Osnabrück

Kaiserslautern

OldenburgDeutschland GmbH

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Algorithmic Business and Production @ DFKI

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“Big data” is high-volume, -velocity and -variety information assets that demand

cost-effective, innovative forms of information processing

for enhanced insight and decision making

Gartner 2011,2016

“Algorithmic business is pivotal to competitive advantage … causing the disruption of entire industries.”

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Major Technologies & Application Areas

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Natural

Language

Understanding

Intelligent

Agents

Knowledge

Representation

& Reasoning

Search

Algorithms

Game &

Decision

Theory

Machine

Learning

Planning &

Reasoning

about

Action

Understanding

Human

Behavior

Image/

Video

Analysis

Adaption &

Flexibility

Automatic

Translation

Search &

Information

Retrieval

Insights &

Discovery

OptimizationPrediction

Assistants

& Robots

Decision

Making

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Hype and Reality: Intelligent Autonomous Systems Intelligent Agents

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Sensors Intelligence

Actuators

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Hype Today: Last Mile Autonomous Deliveryfor Everybody

Failsafe systems with humans in the loop

Operate flawlessly in the wild

Understand the world

Make complex decisions in real time

Perform on par with humans, exceed them

Needs more sophisticated on-board sensors and processors artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms controllers and communication systems battery charging systems (ground/flight)

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Reality Today: Drone-Assisted Photography & Surveying

Construction, insurance, facility management, agriculture, …

More data Cheaper

Faster

Better

Precise Decisions

Controlled Actions

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Future: Last-mile logistics for high value commodities

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Discovery and Action in Areas Inaccessible to Humans

FlatFish from DFKI Bremen

In operation for Shell forpipeline inspection in Brasil

Many such areas at themacro and micro level!

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Current Limitations of Language-based Interaction

«Understanding» questions that require context

Conducting dialogues for clarification

Recognizing arbitrary names

Differentiating between concrete and abstract terms

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Future: Mastering Context in Dialogue

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Challenges in Deep Learning

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Need to resolve:

Hidden dependency on training data

Non-calibrated confidence values

Intransparancy of learned model

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Reinforcement Learning

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20 % success

rate for

arbitrary cube

60 % success

rate for 15

moves

problem

80 % dropped

cubes

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Transfer Learning

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iaF43Ze1oeI

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Finding Unusual Strategies

Atari Breakout after 600 training episodes

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https://www.wired.com/story/the-genderless-digital-voice-the-world-needs-right-now/

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Secondary Effects of Innovation are more Disruptive than the initial Digital Change

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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MnrJzXM7a6o http://disruptiveinnovation.se/?cat=16

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Secondary Effects: The Challenge of Resource Efficiency

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Freedom to Operate in a Competitive AI Market

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Europe’s Greatest Risk: The No-Sayers

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The doctor´s

opinion is much

more differentiated

than the press

headline

Tagesanzeiger

15.11.2018

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The Future of Work – Are You Ready?

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Five Key Success Factors for a Digital Nation

Infrastructure

Social Stability and Equity

Life-Accompagnying Education and Learning

High-Quality Affordable Health Care

Business-friendly public processes predictable, fair, efficient

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Current Research Trends

Multi-AI Architectures

Mastering Context

Embodiment

Scientific Discovery with AI

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Integrated Intelligence

• Contextualized AI• Open knowledge repositories

• Understanding human

intelligence

Self-Aware Learning

• Robust and trustworthy learning

• Deeper learning for challenging tasks

• Integrating symbolic andnumeric representations

• Learning in integratedAI/robotic systems

Meaningful Interaction

• Collaboration

• Trust and responsibility• Diversity of interaction channels

• Improving online interaction

A 20-Year Community

Roadmap for Artificial

Intelligence Research

in the US

Yolanda Gil (USC) and Bart

Selman (Cornell), co-chairs

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AI Will Master the Four Big „A“

Abstraction

Analogy

Argumentation

Arbitrary Common Sense

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Thank you very much for your attention.

Berlin / Bremen / Kaiserslautern / Oldenburg / Osnabrück / Saarbrücken

German Research Center for

Artificial Intelligence GmbH

Registered Office Kaiserslautern Site

Trippstadter Straße 122

D-67663 Kaiserslautern

Germanyphone: +49 631 205 75 0

email: [email protected]

www.dfki.de