Myanmar Eng

8/2/2019 Myanmar Eng

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Updated: June 29, 2011

RUSSIA, MYANMAR AND NUCLEAR TECHNOLOGIES*1

By Anton Khlopkov and Dmitry Konukhov**

The development of nuclear technologies in Myanmar is increasingly attractinginternational attention.2 That attention is tinged with worry: might the generals whorule the Southeast Asian country be trying to acquire nuclear weapons? And couldcooperation between Russia and Myanmar in the nuclear area pave the way for amilitary nuclear program later on? This article does not aim to provide definitiveanswers, leaving it to the readers to form their own conclusions. Its purpose is to

collate the available information about Myanmars nuclear efforts and the role playedin them by Russia.

Reasons for Myanmars interest in nuclear technologies

To begin with, let us try to understand why Myanmar has developed interest innuclear technologies in the first place. In our opinion, there are two main reasons forthat. First, the Myanmar government wants to bolster its standing in the region. Andsecond, it wants to find some use for the country's uranium ore, which is a by-productof the Myanmar gold mines and is also found elsewhere in quantities that thegovernment hopes may be commercially viable.

Playing a greater role in ASEAN is one of Myanmars central foreign policypriorities. ASEAN countries account for the bulk of Myanmars foreign trade.Naypyidaw wants more influence in that regional grouping, and it sees a nucleartechnology development as a mean of bolstering the country's science and researchcredentials - especially in view of the renewed interest in nuclear energy expressed byother countries in Southeast Asia.

The bulk of Myanmars uranium output is a byproduct of its gold mines. In theabsence of any domestic demand for uranium, most of it is being exported to China, tothe best of our knowledge. According to some reports, it is also could be used fortrade-in-kind with North Korea.3 The country also has several uranium deposits.There are five, according to a 2001 report by the Myanmar energy ministry: Magweand Taungdwingyi in Magway province, Kyaukpadaung and Paongpyin in Mandalayprovince, and Kyauksin in Rakhine province. Four of them contain low-gradeuranium ore (less than 0.1 per cent uranium content); only one deposit, Magwe, hasup to 0.5 per cent medium-grade. In 2001 Russian geologists took part in a jointuranium exploration program, but then Myanmar decided to suspend it.4

********************************************************************** - The article is based on the report prepared by the authors for the Nuclear Club journal. ** - Anton Khlopkov is Director of the Moscow-based Center for Energy and Security Studies

(CENESS), and Editor-in-Chief of the Nuclear Club journal (e-mail: [email protected]);Dmitry Konukhov is CENESS Research Associate (e-mail: [email protected]).


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In the absence of detailed information about the Myanmar uranium deposits it is hardto make any projections about the prospects for uranium mining in the country. But

the low-grade of the ore in the deposits found so far5

suggests that mining wouldprobably be commercially unviable.6 Myanmar specialists are now conductingfeasibility studies; some of these studies are part of their education programs anddoctoral research at Russian universities.7

One way or another, the country's uranium mined as a by-product of gold productionis exported. But at some point the government developed interest in putting thaturanium to various uses, such as the production of isotopes for agricultural andmedical purposes, in Myanmar itself.8 To that end in the late 1990s the governmentdecided to set up national nuclear research center. In 1999 it asked the IAEA for helpin preparations for building a research reactor. There have been several technical

cooperation programs between Myanmar and the IAEA, worth 5.2m dollars over theperiod of 2000-2008.9 By 2009, Myanmar specialists had been involved in 67 variousprojects.10 According to the IAEA, eight joint national projects with Myanmar wereactive as of May 2011.11

All the available information suggests that the Myanmar nuclear research program isat the early stages. The IAEA reports that nuclear research papers are being publishedby at least four Myanmar universities: Dagon, Mandalay, Pathein and Yangon. 12 Thecountry's oldest nuclear research facility is the Union of Myanmar Applied ResearchInstitute in Yangon. The Myanmar government claims13 that the centers nuclearenergy department was set up in 1956, only two years after the launch of the world's

first nuclear power plant in the Soviet Union. The departments research programincludes theoretical studies of the uses of radioactive materials in agriculture andhealthcare.

Myanmar energy sector

Myanmars per capita electricity consumption is at the bottom of the world ranking,on par with Bangladesh, Haiti, Congo, Senegal, Eritrea and Ethiopia.14 The country isrich in natural resources - but apart from exporting raw materials, its economy is notbenefitting from them due to the almost total lack of infrastructure. The Myanmarprimary energy production can sustain a much high per-capita electricity consumptionthan the current levels. The country produced 13 million tonnes of oil equivalent(TOE) in 2008, but consumed only 6.2 million. In other words, it exports about asmuch primary energy as it consumes.

The main source of electricity in Myanmar is hydroelectric power (54 per cent) andnatural gas (42 per cent), as the country has rich gas fields.15

The countrys electricity sector is facing a number of serious problems:

The output of hydroelectric power plants, which produce more than half of thecountrys electricity, falls during the dry season;

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Energy losses in the grid are a whopping almost 30 per cent of production17.According to international standards, 4-5 per cent is good; 10 per cent is

barely acceptable; Electricity consumption is very uneven across the country; Yangon, the largest

city, takes up over 50 per cent. Blackouts are a regular occurrence. Sometimesthe energy grid operator resorts to rotating electricity supply, flipping theswitch first on one city block, then another, etc. In late 2009 the formercapital, Yangon, was divided into five blocks, each being lit up for only a fewhours every day.18

Given the countrys recent interest in nuclear technologies, it is possible that over thelonger time frame the government will try to develop a nuclear energy production.But up until now there have not been any official announcements about plans to build

a nuclear power plant in Myanmar. The goals publicly announced by the governmentare limited to building a nuclear research center which will produce isotopes foragriculture and healthcare.

Russia and Myanmar: areas of cooperation

In 2000 Myanmar asked the Russian government for help in building the nuclearresearch center. In February 2001 the two governments began negotiations about thebuilding and operation of a 10-15 MW (thermal) light water pool-type researchreactor and an isotope laboratory. In June 2001 Russias Atomstroyexportcorporation, chosen as the lead company for the project, signed a contract withMyanmar for designing the center. In July Russia and Myanmar initialed anagreement on cooperation in building a nuclear research center on Myanmar territory.

According to unconfirmed reports, Myanmar began preparing the site for the centernear the city of Magwe19, in the central part of the country, in January 2002. 20 InFebruary 2002 a nuclear energy department was set up at the Myanmar Ministry ofScience and Technology. The department was put in charge of the nuclear researchcenter project.

On May 15, 2002 the Russian Government issued Resolution No 312 On the signing

of an agreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and theGovernment of Myanmar on cooperation in the construction of a nuclear researchcenter in Myanmar", instructing the Russian Ministry of Atomic Energy (Minatom) toconduct negotiations with an authorized Myanmar agency and sign theaforementioned agreement once the negotiations are completed.21 The same resolutionalso approved the draft of the agreement. In June 2002 the Atomstroyexportcorporation produced a cost estimate for the project.

For a number of reasons, however, the signing of the intergovernmental agreementnegotiated by the two sides in the spring of 2002 was postponed. After IAEA expertsvisited Myanmar22 they expressed doubts as to whether the Myanmar specialists were

sufficiently qualified to operate a research reactor. They also found seriousdeficiencies in the area of safety culture and infrastructure to support such a project.


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As an alternative to producing radioactive isotopes in Myanmar, they advised theMyanmar government to buy these materials from the existing centers in Thailand or

Malaysia.23

Russia and Myanmar had also failed to agree on the projects financing.The Myanmar government wanted Russia to issue a loan for the project, to be repaidin kind by food and raw materials. Doubts arose as to whether the country couldactually pay for the proposed center.24

Be that as it may, why had Myanmar chosen Russia as its main partner for the nuclearresearch center project? Why not China, its closest neighbor and traditional tradepartner?

It appears that Russia, which has a long experience in training of nuclear specialists,was seen in Myanmar as a counterbalance to China, in view of what the Myanmar

regard as China's overactive presence in their country. With Russias help Myanmarwants to check the influence of its northwestern neighbor and one of its largest tradepartners. Russia and Myanmar already have some experience of cooperation in areassuch minerals prospecting, which began in the late 1960s - early 1970s. The Soviettrade mission in Myanmar (Burma) even had a representative of the Techsnabexportcompany, which oversaw Soviet exports and imports of rare-earth and refractorymetals, radioactive and stable isotopes, etc.25

Russias trade with Myanmar was a very modest 114m dollars in 2010, even though itgrew by 54 per cent in 2009 and by 110 per cent in 2010. These figures are dwarfed

by Chinas 4.4bn dollars worth of trade with the country in 2010, and 12.3bn dollars

of accumulated investment.26 Machinery and various transport equipment accountedfor 80 per cent of Russias exports to Myanmar in 2010.27 In November 2004 RussiasTyazhpromexport (Heavy Industrial Exports) state corporation signed a contract withMyanmar for the construction of an ironworks with an annual output of 200,000tonnes of metal. This joint project, which is still under way, has been the biggest sofar; the Russian part of the contract is worth some 150m euros. 28 Anotherinfrastructure project now being discussed is the construction of subway systems inYangon and Naypyidaw.29

As part of a 2001 bilateral agreement on military and technical cooperation Russiasupplies the MiG-29 and Su-27 fighters30 to the Myanmar Air Force, as well as heavyartillery systems to the Myanmar Army.31 There is also some amount of cooperationin the civil aviation industry.

Nuclear cooperation talks between Russia and Myanmar resumed in 2005; on May 15,2007 the two countries signed an agreement on the construction of a nuclear researchcenter in central Myanmar. The agreement was based on the draft prepared back in2002,32 with some changes and amendments made in 2004 and 2007.33 The agreementwas signed by Russias Sergey Kirienko, head of the Federal Agency for NuclearEnergy, and Myanmars U Taung,34 the minister of science and technology. The termsof the agreement included:


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The construction of a nuclear research center with a 10 MW (thermal) pool-type nuclear reactor using light water as a coolant and moderator;

The nuclear fuel used by the reactor will have uranium enriched to less than 20per cent; The center will have a neutron activation analysis lab, a medical isotopes

production lab, a silicon neutron doping facility, etc;

Russian specialists will install and launch the center's equipment. Russia willalso supply the nuclear fuel and spare parts;

Irradiated nuclear fuel will be returned to Russia; Myanmar pledges not to use the supplied nuclear or special non-nuclear

materials for the production of nuclear explosive devices or any other militarypurposes; it also pledges to place these materials under the IAEA safeguardsfor the entire duration of their stay in Myanmar;

Myanmar pledges not to use the equipment, materials and technologiessupplied from Russia in nuclear facilities not placed under the IAEAsafeguards;

Russia will train 300-350 nuclear energy specialists for the Myanmar nuclearresearch center.35

The agreement put in place the legal framework for cooperation between Russia andMyanmar in two key areas: a) designing, building and launching the nuclear researchcenter; and b) training Myanmar specialists for the nuclear research center.

The document also outlined the sequence of steps to be taken by the two sides toimplement the agreement; in that sequence, the signing of the contract for the actualconstruction of the nuclear research center comes after the enactment by Myanmar ofthe IAEA Additional Protocol. The agreement itself entered into force on the day itwas signed; it remains in force until the parties have fulfilled all their commitments.

Will the Myanmar nuclear research center be built?

The initial plan was to launch the center in five years time.36 The cost of the projectwas estimated by the general contractor, Atomstroyexport, as 200m to 400m euros37,depending on the final specifications. The agreement stipulates that the payment must

be made in hard currency. We believe that the price the general contractor has askedis too high. One point of reference is the 2010 contact for the construction of a similarnuclear research center, with a South Korean-designed 5 MW research reactor, at theUniversity of Science and Technology in Jordan. The value of the contract was only130m dollars.38

Consultations between Russia and Myanmar on the implementation of the agreementbroke off in the fall of 200739 due to unrest in Myanmar known as the SaffronRevolution40. As of June 1, 2011, they have not resumed. Neither has Myanmarsigned the IAEA Additional Protocol. Also, Myanmar is refusing to accept themodified Small Quantities Protocol (SQP)41, which requires early notification of the

IAEA about plans to build new nuclear facilities (based on modified Code 3.1). At


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present Myanmar falls under the small quantities protocol regulations due to theabsence of any significant quantities of nuclear materials in the country.

At the moment the Myanmar nuclear research center project is not reflected in anyway in Russian State Nuclear Energy Corporation Rosatom42 annual reports orAtomstroyexport's list of active or future projects.43 Speaking at the IAEA GeneralConference in September 2009, the Myanmar representative said that work on theconstruction of the reactor had not begun. In his statement at the 2010 conference hedid not mention the project at all.44 US Department of State documents published byThe Guardian newspaper mention that the only Russian involvement in Myanmarsnuclear program is training specialists.45

Training of Myanmar specialists in Russia

The training of specialists in Russia for the future Myanmar nuclear research center ispart of the wider training cooperation program between the two countries. Startingfrom 2001, the Myanmar Ministry of Science and Technology has been sending about500 Myanmar students every year to Russian universities on a commercial basis.46Fifteen Russian universities have taken part in the program in 2001-2011. 47,48

The first Myanmar students were sent for training to Russia back in Soviet times.More than 200 engineers, doctors and oil industry specialists had been trained 49 beforepolitical relations and trade between the two countries went downhill in the 1970s.

These days the training of Myanmar specialists for the country's future nuclearresearch center is done mostly at the National Research Nuclear University MEPhI,which was receiving about a hundred Myanmar students every year in 2001-2008.About half of those students took courses related to nuclear technologies. By 2011Russia had achieved the nuclear specialists training target specified in the May 2007bilateral agreement (i.e. up to 350 people). It is expected that by the summer of 2011the last group of Myanmar students will have completed their Masters programs atMEPhI.

Most of the Myanmar being sent to Russia for training were military officers(predominantly lieutenants or captains). The explanation for that is quite simple: inMyanmar, military officers usually have better basic training than civilians. Startingfrom 1997 the country was governed by the State Peace and Development Council 50,which consisted of the top generals.51 In February 2011 Myanmar held aparliamentary election; a new constitution entered into force. The first sitting of thenewly elected parliament formed a civilian government led by the president. Thatgovernment has taken over the ruling of the country; the State Peace andDevelopment Council has been dissolved.52 But the generals continue to play a majorrole in the country. The new civilian government includes 26 ministers who used to bemembers of the military administration. The Myanmar military perform a whole rangeof civilian functions; among other things, they oversee the development of the

countrys infrastructure.


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The training of specialists abroad is part of Myanmar's efforts to nurture a cadre ofelite technocrats; the specialties chosen for training are therefore mostly technical.

The choice of Russia for training is based not only on the reputation of Russia inscience. It is also part of Myanmars attempts to find a counterbalance to China,which continues its economic expansion in the country. Nevertheless, Myanmar hasalso had a program of sending students for training to China, and some localspecialists trained in China now teach at some Myanmar universities. It was reportedthat professors from China and North Korea taught in Myanmar but there have beenno reports of any nuclear-related courses being delivered by the Chinese or NorthKoreans.53

The specific courses to be delivered to Myanmar students in Russia are chosen by theMyanmar government within the limits set by Russian legislation. As a rule, a

Myanmar Embassy official discusses directly with the university in question thenumber of students to be sent for training and the list of the courses they will take.The program is then vetted by the Russian Ministry of Education and Science. In theearly years the vetting was also done by the Russian Nuclear Energy Ministry. 54 Thefull cost of the training is paid by the Myanmar government. For the universities thisis a welcome chance to make some money, especially since the numbers of theRussian students they are training are falling due to Russias demographic trough ofthe 1990s.55

The Myanmar students normally spend six months studying Russian back home inMyanmar56, and then another year on a special program for foreign students at the

Russian universities. Only then do they begin a two-year Masters course. Some ofthem drop out before completing their studies; some of those former students are nowworking with Russian tourists back in Myanmar, where their knowledge of theRussian language gives them a competitive edge. According to the Myanmar Ministryof Hotels and Tourism, the number of Russian tourists visiting Myanmar rose by 50per cent in 2009.57 Some of the Myanmar specialists trained in Russia then leave forother countries, especially Singapore, where their skills are in high demand. Othershave become teachers themselves, and are now training students back home inMyanmar. In September 2010 Russia received the first group of Myanmar studentswho had been taught the Russian language by Myanmar language experts trained inRussia rather than native Russian teachers.58 The Myanmar might soon start teachingother subjects, too. The specialists trained in Russia will be able to teach Myanmarstudents in Myanmar itself, which means that the numbers sent for training to Russiawill fall. In fact, these numbers are already falling for some courses.59 Myanmar hadpreviously used the same knowledge-spreading mechanism with China.

As some Russian universities the Myanmar make up a large proportion of foreignstudents. In 2006 a third of all the foreigners studying at the Moscow AviationTechnology Institute were Myanmar.60 At the Moscow Institute of Steel and Alloys,the Myanmar were the largest group of foreign students in 2010-2011 academicyear.61 Some 2,891 students from Myanmar were studying in Russia in 2008-2009,

according to the Ministry of Education and Science - more than from any otherSoutheast Asian country save Vietnam.62 For comparison, only 695 Myanmar


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students studied in the United States in 2009-2010.63,64 Most of the Myanmar studentsstudying in Russia are graduates of the leading Myanmar technology universities.

Whether the numbers of Myanmar students studying in Russia should be consideredhigh or low depends on the point of reference. The Myanmar make up 2.4 per cent ofall foreign students in Russia. That is a respectable figure, taking into account that thegeneral level of cooperation between Russia and Southeast Asian countries is not thathigh. But on the other hand, there were 4,500 Iranian students and post-graduatesstudying in the United States in 2009-201065, almost double the figure for 2004-2005(2,400 students)66even though the two countries do not even maintain diplomaticrelations.

Doubts about peaceful nature of the Myanmar nuclear program

Due to the nature of its political setup, Myanmar has often been the subject of variousinformation campaigns. In the past several months there has been a wave ofspeculation in the world media about Myanmars nuclear program and the countrysalleged aspiration to acquire nuclear weapons. In May 2010 theDemocratic Voice of

Burma, a pro-opposition media organization based in Oslo, announced the completionof a five-year investigation of Myanmar's nuclear activities. The organizationunveiled what it described as "evidence" - based mostly on the testimony of a fugitiveMyanmar army major, Sai Thein Win,67 who had studied at the Bauman MoscowState Technical University in Moscow and allegedly had access to secret Myanmarnuclear facilities.68 His story was covered in great detail in The Daily Telegraph.69

Meanwhile,Janes Intelligence Review has published satellite photos of the suspectedsecret nuclear facilities. Based on these photos, as well as photos of variousequipment received from Sai Thein Win, Myanmar was accused of working onseveral components of a military nuclear program, including the construction of aplutonium production reactor and a uranium enrichment program.

It has also been reported that shipping between North Korea and Myanmar is beingcarefully monitored; the two countries are suspected of complicity in the transfer ofdual use materials and equipment which can be used to produce weapons of massdestruction and their delivery systems. In 2009 Myanmar and North Korea wereimplicated in smuggling of dual use machinery (measuring instruments and machinetools) which, according to the Japanese government, can be used in missile programs.The machinery was shipped by a Japanese commercial company to North Korea viaMyanmar. The latter was probably used as a transit destination to conceal the identityof the end buyer.70 Information about possible cooperation between Myanmar andNorth Korea is also contained in the US Department of State documents published byWikileaks.71

Several media outlets and research publications have also suggested that there may besome cooperation in sensitive areas between Myanmar and Iran. It appears, however,

that the likelihood of such cooperation is exaggerated. Muslims in Myanmar do nothave the same rights as the rest of the population. They are not eligible for


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administrative or government jobs, and they cannot serve in the army or the policeforce.72 Given that Iran sees itself as the leader of the Muslim world, partnership

between the two countries seems unlikely. Myanmar itself, meanwhile, does not shuncooperation with the Muslim countries - but its main foreign policy priority isASEAN.73

The has also been a degree of skepticism about the fugitive Myanmar majorsstatements, the standards of other evidence and the conclusions all that evidence issupposed to support. Experts of the Washington-based Institute for Science andInternational Security (ISIS) said in response to an official query by Senator JimWebb that Sai Thein Win does not have training in nuclear physics or engineering, hisinformation remains second-hand and requires confirmation; that the equipmentdescribed in the documents and shown on the photos has legitimate non-nuclear uses;,

and that the existence of a secret military nuclear program in Myanmar remains amatter of conjecture.74

Robert Kelley, the former officer at the IAEA safeguards department who interviewedSai Thein Win after his defection, does not question the former Myanmar major'sclaims. But he concludes that despite that evidence, Myanmar-North Koreacooperation in the nuclear field remains a hypothesis not an established fact. 75

Myanmar does not have an obvious foreign policy reason to pursue a military nuclearprogram. The country has no serious territorial disputes with its neighbors, apart fromrelatively minor differences on border issues with China (over some ethnic groups

living on both sides of the border between the two countries) but these differencesare not high on the agenda.

Conclusions

The Myanmar government has adopted a program of creating a nuclear researchcenter and chosen Russia as its main partner for the project. Myanmar officials havenever spoken of any plans to build a nuclear power plant in the country. According tothe available information, the country's leadership views the development of nucleartechnologies as an instrument to stimulate the countrys science and technology and tobolster Myanmars international standing in Southeast Asia. The Myanmargovernments interest in nuclear technologies is also explained to some degree by the

availability of uranium ore produced as a byproduct of gold mining, as well as severaluranium deposits. The most important tasks facing Myanmar in this context are: a)training specialists; b) building a research reactor and a series of nuclear laboratories;and c) exploration of uranium deposits in the country.

The program to train Myanmar specialists in Russia for the future nuclear researchcenter is nearing completion. The last group of Myanmar students is expected tocomplete their Masters program at the National Research Nuclear University MEPhIin Moscow by mid-2011.


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Judging from the available information, it is safe to assume that Russian specialistshave not begun the construction of the nuclear research center in Myanmar.

Negotiations to sign a contract to that effect have been frozen. There is no mention ofthe project in the reporting of Atomstroyexport, the Russian exporter of researchreactors, or the Rosatom State Nuclear Energy Corporation.

It seems that the main reason for that is Myanmar's failure to sign the IAEAAdditional Protocol. Under the 2007 Russian-Myanmar bilateral agreement theenactment of the Additional Protocol is supposed to precede the signing of thecontract for the construction of the nuclear research center.

It is also reasonable to assume that Rosatomis now much less interested in the projectthan it was back in 2000, when talks on the construction of the nuclear research center

in Myanmar began. Since then the Russian nuclear energy industry has securedseveral contracts for the construction of nuclear power reactors abroad (in Belarus,Bulgaria, China, India, Turkey, Ukraine and Vietnam). There is also an ambitious newprogram to build new nuclear power reactors in Russia itself. Given the industryslimited production capacity, the Myanmar project is not high on its list of priorities.

In the longer time frame, cooperation with Myanmar can help Russia to bolster itspresence in Southeast Asia, which is one of the most rapidly developing parts of theworld. Of all the countries in the region, Russia now has close economic and politicalrelations only with Vietnam. One of the most promising and rapidly developing areasof Russia-Myanmar cooperation is the training of Myanmar specialists in Russian

universities.

Exports of education services are not only a profitable line of business, but also animportant component of foreign policy. Russia needs to make a good use ofMyanmars decision to choose Russian universities, and step up the efforts to developcloser relations between the two countries in this area. Russia could offer Myanmarspecialists training in customs control on radioactive and fissile materials; Myanmarofficials have previously said that their country lacks the equipment and expertise inthis field.76 Russia has two such training centers up and running, and the branches ofthe Russian Customs Academy in Vladivostok and St Petersburg have already workedwith foreign customs officers. The training programs offered by Rosatom, theMinistry or Education and Science and the Federal Customs Service to Myanmarcould include nuclear security and safety courses. Such courses could be deliveredindependently or as part of the IAEA projects at the Institute of Global NuclearSecurity set up at the Interdepartmental Special Training Center in Obninsk, KalugaRegion, which is part of the MEPhI National Research Nuclear University. Thatwould strengthen cooperation between Russia and Myanmar in the training oftechnology specialists and fill the vacuum in nuclear cooperation while the project tobuild the nuclear research center remains frozen - especially since the last group ofMyanmar students are about to finish their Masters program at the MEPhI university.

But the Russian universities and the Export Control Commission under the Ministryof Education and Science need to be careful about the choice of courses they offer to


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Myanmar. There needs to be a balance between economic benefits from trainingforeign students and Russia's non-proliferation commitments, as well as the wider

national security interests. That need was mentioned (without any specific mention ofMyanmar) by Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov at the meetings of the inter-agency commission for export controls in August 2009.77

Notes

1 The authors would like to thank Alexey Kirichenko, Robert Shaw and other expertswho wished to remain unnamed for their help in preparing this article and theirfeedback on the drafts. Nevertheless, the opinions and conclusions of the authorsreflect only their own position.

2 The country's military government changed its name to Myanmar in 1989, but thechange has not been recognized by many Western media outlets and governments,including those of the United States and the United Kingdom.3 Kelley Robert. Myanmar-DPRK Cooperation in Military Affairs. 2011, May 5.http://38north.org/2011/05/kelley0505/?utm_source=Paulo%27s+Corner+Daily+Nuclear+News+Digest&utm_campaign=619cb38c8d-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email (Retrieved on7 May 2011).4 Bekmann Igor. Uranium (study guide). Moscow, 2009. Chapter 12, Uraniummining industry, Paragraph 2, Uranium deposits and mines in various countries,

Item 4, Asia, Myanmar section,http://profbeckman.narod.ru/Uran.files/Glava12_2.pdf (Retrieved on - 18 December

2010).5 U3O8 content in the ore of: Magwe: 0.001-0.560%; Taungdwingyi - 0.001-0.110%;Kyaukpadaung 0.0015-0.055%, Paongpyin0.0061-0.0068%; Kyauksin 0.0020-0.0052%.6 Raw materials industries in foreign countries: Myanmar.http://www.mineral.ru/Facts/world/116/145/index.html (Retrieved on - 3 December2010).7 Vei Lin. Formation of a combined deposit for open geo-technology exemplified bythe uranium deposits of Myanmar. PhD dissertation (25.00.22). Moscow, 2007; SoMinh Tu. Physical and geological models of gold, tin and tungsten deposits inMyanmar (exemplified by Kyauk Phyu, Mochi and Kanbauk deposits). PhDdissertation (25.00.10). Moscow, 2010.http://www.msgpa.ru/science/protection/pdf/SoMinTu.pdf (Retrieved on - 14 2011).8 Statement by the Leader of Myanmar Delegation H.E. U Tin Win to the 54th AnnualRegular Session of the IAEA. 2010, September 20-24. Vienna. P. 5.http://www.iaea.org/About/Policy/GC/GC54/Statements/myanmar.pdf (Retrieved on -12 November 2011).9 Statement by the Leader of Myanmar Delegation H.E. U Tin Win to the 52ndRegular Session of the IAEA General Conference 2008. Vienna, 29 September 4October 2008.10

Fitzpatrick Mark.Preventing Nuclear Dangers in Southeast Asia and Australasia.London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2009. P. 104.


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11 National TC Projects in Asia and the Pacific region as of 14 May 2011.

http://tc.iaea.org/tcweb/regionalsites/asia/lists/nationalprojects/ (Retrieved on 14May 2011).12 Luchin Anatoliy, Fedchenko Vitaliy. Myanmar's nuclear future. Yadernyy Kontrol.No 1. Vol. 9. 2003, Spring. http://www.pircenter.org/data/publications/yk1-2003.pdf(Retrieved on - 12 November 2010). P. 149.13 Ibid. P. 148.14 Myanmar Stands Ninth Position in Energy Consumption Per Head in South-EastAsian Countries. http://eversion.news-eleven.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=948:myanmar-stands-ninth-position-in-energy-consumption-per-head-in-south-east-asian-countries&catid=43:biweekly-eleven-eversion&Itemid=110 (Retrieved on 6 May

2011).15 World Bank Statistics. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/myanmar/electricity-production-from-hydroelectric-sources-kwh-wb-data.html (Retrieved on - 5 May2011).16 There are three seasons in Myanmar: hot and humid (June-October); relatively cooland dry (November-February), and very hot and transitional dry (March-May).17 World Bank Statistics. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/myanmar/electricity-production-from-hydroelectric-sources-kwh-wb-data.html (Retrieved on - 5 May2011).18 Yangon Rotates Electricity Supply to Deal with Shortages. Deutsche Presse-

Agentur. 2009, December 20.

http://www.monstersandcritics.com/news/business/news/article_1520354.php/Yangon-rotates-electricity-supply-to-deal-with-shortages (Retrieved on - 7 May 2011).19 Although the bilateral agreement on cooperation in the construction of the nuclearresearch center in Myanmar states that Russia will assist in choosing the site for the

project, according to the available information, the preliminary choice of the site forthe research reactor was made by the Myanmar side.20 Luchin Anatoliy, Fedchenko Vitaliy. Myanmar's nuclear future. Yadernyy Kontrol.No 1. Vol. 9. 2003, Spring. http://www.pircenter.org/data/publications/yk1-2003.pdf(Retrieved on - 12 November 2010)21Russian Government Resolution No 312 of May 15, 2002, On the signing of theAgreement between the Government of the Russian Federation and the Governmentof the Union of Myanmar on cooperation in the construction of the Nuclear ResearchCenter in the Union of Myanmar. Official text of the document with changes and

amendments as of September 25, 2006.http://www.jurbase.ru/2006_archive_federal_laws_of_russia/texts/sector069/tes69674.htm (Retrieved on - 14 February 2011).22 The conclusion was made based on a visit by IAEA experts to Myanmar in thesummer and fall of 2001. Myanmar was informed about the commissions findings bythe deputy director general of the IAEA representing China.23 Hibbs Mark. IAEA Probes Myanmar Data, Discourages New Research Reactors.

Nuclear Fuel. 2009, August 10.

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/static/npp/pdf/myanmar_reprint.pdf (Retrievedon - 14 February 2011).


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24Fullbrook David. ASEAN and Myanmars Nuclear Reactor. Opinion Asia. 2007, 27

Mayhttp://opinionasia.com/ASEANandMyanmarsNuclearReactor (Retrieved on - 12November 2010).25 Leonov G.Y. Shishkin A.A. Tekhsnabexport: figures and persons. Reformapublishing house, 2009. P. 34.26 Myanmar-China Border Trade Fair Kaunched in Muse. Xinhua. 2011, April 29,http://en.helosina.com/Show/news/View_849.aspx (Retrieved on - 4 May 2011).27 Trade between Russia and Myanmar. Official figures from the Ministry ofEconomic Development of the Russian Federation,http://www.economy.gov.ru/minec/activity/sections/foreigneconomicactivity/cooperation/economicaa/doc20110322_018?presentationtemplate=docHTMLTemplate1&pres

entationtemplateid=2dd7bc8044687de796f0f7af753c8a7e&WCM_Page.ResetAll=TRUE&CACHE=NONE&CONTENTCACHE=NONE&CONNECTORCACHE=NONE(Retrieved on16 April 2011).28 Tkachev Aleksandr. Next to no trade between Russia and Myanmar - Myanmargovernment. RIA Novosti. May 8, 2010.http://www.rian.ru/world/20100408/219711892.html (Retrieved on - 12 November2010).29 Moscow metro builders to help build subways in India, Romania and Myanmar.

RIA Novosti, November 3, 2010.30 First deliveries were made in 2002. Deliveries continue on a 2009 contract for 20MiG-29 fighters. Russia's main competitor for the contract was China, which offered

its fighter jets to Myanmar on more attractive terms. Despite the better Chinese priceoffer, Myanmar awarded the contract to the Russian company.31 Klyuchanskaya Sveltana. Military and technical cooperation between Russia andSoutheast Asian countries in strategic areas. November 3, 2010.http://pircenter.org/data/Publications-SI/10-11-03_Analysis_Klyuchanskaya.pdf(Retrieved on - 3 December 2010).32 Draft of the agreement between the Russian and Myanmar governments on theconstruction of a nuclear research center in Myanmar of May 15, 2002.http://www.businesspravo.ru/Docum/DocumShow_DocumID_29686.html (Retrievedon - 24 May 2011).33 Draft of the agreement between the Russian and Myanmar governments on theconstruction of a nuclear research center in Myanmar with changes and amendmentsof August 24, 2004. http://www.jurbase.ru/texts/sector069/tes69674.htm (Retrievedon - 24 May 2011).34 Bilateral agreement on cooperation signed between Russia and Myanmar. Nuclearindustry press center. May 15, 2007, http://www.minatom.ru/news/4667_15.05.2007(Retrieved on - 3 December 2010).35 Bilateral agreement on cooperation signed between Russia and Myanmar. Presscenter of the Federal Agency for Nuclear Energy. May 15, 2007.http://www.minatom.ru/news/4667_15.05.2007 (Retrieved on - 1 May 2011).36 Ibid.


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37 Aleksandr Glukhov. Myanmar hardly interested in nuclear weapons. Vzglyad. May

30, 2007. http://vz.ru/economy/2007/5/30/84953.html (Retrieved on - 3 December2010).38 Jordan, S. Korea sign $130 million nuclear deal. Associated Press. 2010, March 3.http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-3869881,00.html (Retrieved on 23May 2011).39 Klyuchanskaya S. Nuclear energy development in ASEAN countries in the late20th and early 21st centuries. Istoriya. January 12, 2010.http://sun.tsu.ru/mminfo/000063105/333/image/333-071.pdf (Retrieved on - 12November 2010).40 A confrontation between the ruling military regime and the opposition led byBuddhist monks (the term saffron itself comes from the colour of Buddhist monks

robes), students and the Democratic Alliance of Burma. The protest was disowned bythe pro-regime hierarchy and the ruling regime managed to retain power.41 Hibbs Mark. IAEA Probes Myanmar Data, Discourages New Research Reactors.

NuclearFuel. 2009, August 10.http://www.carnegieendowment.org/static/npp/pdf/myanmar_reprint.pdf (Retrievedon - 14 February 2011).42 Rosatom 2009 Annual Report. Rosatom web site.http://www.rosatom.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosatom/rosatomsite/investor/presentations(Retrieved on - 14 February 2011)43 Current, past and future projects of Atomstroyexport corporation. Corporate website. http://www.ase.atomstroyexport.ru/projects/ (Retrieved on - 14 February 2011).44 Statement by the Leader of Myanmar Delegation H.E. U Tin Win to the 54th AnnualRegular Session of the IAEA. 2010, September 20-24. Vienna.http://www.iaea.org/About/Policy/GC/GC54/Statements/myanmar.pdf (Retrieved on -12 November 2011).45 US Embassy Cables: Myanmar Official Reports Myanmar and North Korea's'Peaceful Nuclear Cooperation'. Guardian. 2010, December 9.http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/219888 (Retrievedon - 14 February 2011).46 Web site of the Russian Embassy in Myanmar.http://www.rusembmyanmar.org/russia/russia-myanmar-relationship.htm (Retrievedon - 12 November 2010).47 Myanmar students have at various times studied at the Geological ExplorationAcademy, the Moscow State Aviation Institute (MAI), the Moscow State Automobileand Road Technical University (MADI), Moscow State Mining University (MSMU),Moscow Institute of Electronic Technology (Technical University) (MIET) inZelenograd, Moscow Lomonosov State University (MSU), Moscow State Universityof Civil Engineering (MSUCE), Moscow State Technological Institute STANKIN(MGTU Stankin), National Research Nuclear University MEPhI, Moscow BaumanState University of Technology (MSTU), Moscow Power Engineering Institute(MPEI), the National Technology Research University Moscow Institute of Steel andAlloys (MISiS), Tsiolkovskiy Russian State University of Aviation Technology

(MATI-RGTU), Mendeleyev University of Chemical Technology of Russia(MUCTR), and Southwestern State University (YuZGU) in Kursk.


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48 Vei Lin. Formation of combined deposits for open geo-technology exemplified by

the uranium deposits of Myanmar. PhD dissertation (25.00.22). Moscow, 2007; SoMinh Tu. Physical and geological models of gold, tin and tungsten deposits inMyanmar (exemplified by exemplified by Kyauk Phyu, Mochi and Kanbaukdeposits). PhD dissertation (25.00.10). Moscow, 2010.http://www.msgpa.ru/science/protection/pdf/SoMinTu.pdf; Myanmar at MIET: Wehave 135 national holidays every year. February 2, 2010.http://www.zelenograd.ru/news/4280/; Tour of Moscow in winter. MGTU StankinBulletin. March 2010. No 3. http://www.stankin.ru/vestnik/march_2010.pdf;Department of Theoretical and Experimental Physics of Nuclear Reactors. NIYaUMEPhI. http://www2.mephi.ru/node/155; Zabrodin, Ogorodov. Ten years on

Physics engineer (MEPhI bulletin). 2006. http://www.i-f.mephi.ru/Archive/Number8-

2006/Article3-1.html; Forty-two students studying at Kaluga branch of the universityin 2006. Fifty-one post-graduate students from Myanmar entered the university in2010. Visit by Myanmar ambassador U Minh Tein. November 1, 2006.http://www.bmstu-kaluga.ru/newspaper/about.php?p=15&PHPSESSID=16d105f4b404ca38079e712fe6535e6f; Students from Myanmar: first days in Russia. September 15, 2010.http://www.rosnou.ru/news/foreign_first/; Addendum to Bauman MGTU graduationdiploma. https://reader009.{domain}/reader009/html5/0503/5aea02f1d1afa/5aea02fae1328.jpg; graduates receive Bauman MGTU diplomas. July 15, 2010.http://www.rosnou.ru/news/mianma_vupysk_2010/; Aung Win Tut. Development andresearch of frequency regulated asynchronous engines. PhD dissertation (05.09.01).

Moscow, 2008. http://www.phido.ru/Disser/11798/View.aspx (Retrieved on - 14February 2011).49 Tatarinov A.A. Russia and Myanmar: 60 years of diplomatic relations.

International Affairs. 2007. http://atesting.ru/8_12_11.htm (Retrieved on - 14February 2011).50 Successor of the State Council for Restoration of Law and Order, which came topower in 1988.51 Students from Myanmar. Southwestern State University website. March 27, 2010.http://swsu.ru/structura/umsm/news/army.php (Retrieved on - 14 February 2011).52 Retired general elected Myanmar president. Rosbalt. February 4, 2011.http://www.rosbalt.ru/main/2011/02/04/816016.html (Retrieved on - 22 April 2011).53 Kelley Robert. Myanmar-DPRK Cooperation in Military Affairs. 2011, May 5.http://38north.org/2011/05/kelley0505/?utm_source=Paulo%27s+Corner+Daily+Nuclear+News+Digest&utm_campaign=619cb38c8d-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email (Retrieved on7 May 2011).54 Now reorganized into Rosatom State Atomic Energy Corporation.55 The Russian students now studying in universities were born in the early 1990s,when Russia was in a deep economic crisis.56 Russian is one of the main foreign languages taught at two Myanmar languageschools, the Yangon and Mandalay universities of foreign languages: Myanmar. Linkswith Russia and the CIS. http://www.polpred.com/?cnt=108&art=9104 (Retrieved on

- 12 November 2010).


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57 Humanitarian links between Russia and Myanmar. Reference information. Russian

Foreign Ministry's information and press department. May 7, 2009.http://www.mid.ru/ns-rasia.nsf/1083b7937ae580ae432569e7004199c2/87bd27fa61a7fb9743256a9b0051058c?OpenDocument (Retrieved on - 12 November 2010); Official site of Ministry ofHotels and Tourism, Union of Myanmar.http://www.myanmartourism.org/tourismstatistic.htm (Retrieved on - 3 December2010);58 New generation September 1, 2010. http://dragon-naga.livejournal.com/37862.html (Retrieved on - 22 April 2011).59 On Myanmar students studying in Moscow. February 18, 2010. http://dragon-naga.livejournal.com/28440.html (Retrieved on - 22 April 2011).

60 Interests shifting eastwards. Aviation technologist (MATI-RGTU newspaper).November 28, 2006. http://new.mati.ru/magazine/archive/112006/main.php(Retrieved on - 14 February 2011).61 Summary of information about MISiS. National University of Science andTechnologyMISIS web site. http://diplom.msisa.ru/ (Retrieved on - 14 February 2011).

62 Arefyev A.L. Sheregi A.F. Training of foreign students in Russian higher educationestablishments. Facts and Figures. Issue 7. Moscow, TsSPiM, 2010. P. 19.63 Open Doors 2010 Regional Fact Sheet: Asia. www.iie.org/.../Open-Doors/.../Open-Doors/Fact-Sheets/Region/ Asia%20Region%20Fact%20Sheet%202010.ashx(Retrieved on22 April 2011).64 In most cases the Myanmar students receive education grants from Americangovernmental and privately financed programs. The full cost of education in Russia ispaid by the Myanmar government.65 International Academic Exchange between the United States and the Middle Easton the Rise. http://www.iie.org/en/Who-We-Are/News-and-Events/Press-Center/Press-Releases/2010/2010-12-07-Open-Doors-Middle-East-US-Educational-Exchange (Retrieved on - 22 April 2011).66 Open Doors 2007: International Students in the United States. Quote from:Khlopkov Anton. Everyone wins: scientists for Iran, plutonium for North Korea,enrichment for Israel. Security Index. No 4, 2008. P. 15467Some of the interviewed Russian experts are quite skeptical about Sai Thein Win stestimony. The defector represents the Shan ethnic group, which makes up less than10 per cent of the Myanmar population.68 Fowle Ali, Kelley Robert. Nuclear Related Activities in Myanmar. DemocraticVoice of Myanmar. 2010, May. http://www.dvb.no/Myanmars-nuclear-ambitions/Myanmars-nuclear-ambitions-nuclear/expert-analysis/9297 (Retrieved on -14 February 2011).69 Spillius Alex, McElroy Daniel. Myanmar is working on nuclear weaponsprogramme, experts claim. Daily Telegraph. 2010, July 26.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/Myanmarmyanmar/7909774/Myanmar-is-working-on-nuclear-weapons-programme-experts-claim.html (Retrieved on -

14 February 2011).


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70 For more details, see: Moe Arkar. Japanese Police Block Suspected Missile

Technology Exports for Myanmar. 2009, June 30.http://www.irrawaddy.org/article.php?art_id=16237 (Retrieved on - 22 April 2011);Lieggi S., Shaw R., Toki M. Taking Contril: Stopping North Korean WMD-relatedProcurement. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 2010, #66(5). P.21-34; Boye C.,Hanham M., Shaw R. North Korea and Myanmar: A Match for Nuclear Proliferation?

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 2010, 27 September.71 Martinez. Myanmar: Rumors of Construction of a Nuclear Reactor near Minbu.Cable form U.S. Embassy in Yangon.http://213.251.145.96/cable/2004/01/04YANGON88.html (Retrieved on - 14February 2011).Marshall Andrew. WikiLeaks cables show concern over Myanmar nuclear plans.

Reuters. 2010, December 10. http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/12/10/us-wikileaks-myanmar-idUSTRE6B91G120101210 (Retrieved on - 14 February 2011).72 Sadur Valiakhmet. The tragedy of Myanmars Muslims. http://islam-info.ru/islamofobia/page,1,68-tragediya-musulman-myanmy.html (Retrieved on - 14February 2011).73 For example, Myanmar is gradually increasing trade with Indonesia (224m dollarsin 2009) and Malaysia (373.9m dollars in 2009)74 Albright David. Letter to Senator Webb. ISIS. 2010, June 29. http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Letter_to_Senator_Webb.pdf (Retrieved on- 14 February 2011).75 Kelley Robert. Myanmar-DPRK Cooperation in Military Affairs. 2011, May 5.

http://38north.org/2011/05/kelley0505/?utm_source=Paulo%27s+Corner+Daily+Nuclear+News+Digest&utm_campaign=619cb38c8d-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email (Retrieved on7 May 2011).76 Win Thant. Implementation of Customs Risk management System In Myanmar.Materials of the workshop on The Implementation of United Nation Security Council

Resolution 1540. 2011, 15 January.77 Universities which train foreign students must care about Russia's security, not theirown profit.RIA Novosti. August 26, 2009.

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