Lehrstuhl für Energiewirtschaft | Energiewirtschaftliches Institut der Universität zu Köln

Broghan Helgeson, Simon Paulus and Jakob Peter15th IAEE European Conference 2017 | 3rd to 6th September, 2017 Hofburg Congress Center | Vienna, Austria

Pathways for decarbonizing the road

transport sector – the example of

Germany

The work was partially carried under the research project “Virtuelles Institut Strom zu Gas und Wärme” financed by the

Ministry for Innovation, Science and Research for the State of North Rhine-Westphalia (Ministerium für Innovation,

Wissenschaft und Forschung des Landes NRW).

2

1. Introduction and Research Question

2. Literature and Methodology

3. Model Approach

4. Results

5. Conclusion & Further Research

Content

Introduction and Research Question

3

Source for icons: thenounproject; Figure based on Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen (2015);

Data taken from UBA (2012, 2015)

Sectors in the ETS

Sectors not in the ETS

-9% vs. 2005

-0,5% vs. 2005

Research Questions

4

• What is the cost-optimal decarbonization pathway in the German and

European road transport sectors under a sector-specific CO2 target?

• What are the implications of the decarbonization of the road transport

sector on the electricity sector? What role could sector-coupling

technologies such as power-to-gas and electric vehicles have in a low-

carbon fuel economy?

Literature and Methodology

5

• Extensive literature exists that examine…

Decarbonization via sector-coupling in a European (e.g., Knaut et al., 2016) and

national context (e.g., Palzer and Henning, 2014)

Energy modelling (e.g., Richter, 2011) and scenarios (e.g., Söderholm et al., 2011)

Powert-to-X and synfuels (e.g. Brynolf et al., 2017)

Transformation of the road transport sector for Europe (e.g., Schmidt et al., 2016)

and nationally (e.g., Van Vliet et al., 2011; Romejko and Nakano, 2016)

• We analyze the European road transport sector with complete interaction

with the European electricity (and district heating) sectors using a cost-

minimizing linear investment and dispatch model

All investments are endogenous (including the corresponding electricity prices) as

the cost function is minimized

such that the equilibrium constraint is held at all points in time

Source: Richter (2011)

Model Extensions to DIMENSION:

Sector coupling

6

DIMENSION (EU electricity market invest & dispatch model)

Power-to-X module(EU invest & dispatch)

Road transport module(EU invest & dispatch)

Sector coupling – PtX technologies

7

• Feed-in into gas grid limited by %-

threshold for gas injections

• H2 usage within road transportation sector

• H2 usage within industrial sector (i.e.

chemical industry)

• Feed-in into gas grid limited by %-

threshold for gas injections

• H2 or CH4 storage within available

infrastructure

• Reconversion of H2 or CH4 to electricity

• H2,CH4 or O2 usage in road transportation

sector and within selected industries

The PtX-technologies are modelled using various vintage classes based on technological progress (efficiency)

and learning rates

• Gasoline or diesel used for conventional

combustion engines or hybrids

• O2 may be sold to industries

Sector coupling – Road Transport Sector

8

The model is coupled with the electricity sector and accounts for all carbon emissions

for fuel transformation, fuel transport and combustion as well as costs for fuel

production, fuel distribution, vehicles and infrastructure.

* H2: Hydrogen Gas, LH2: Liquid Hydrogen, CNG: Compressed Natural Gas, LNG: Liquid Natural Gas

Note: Non-plug-in hybrids with gasoline, diesel and natural gas use a battery to assist the car in accelerating, braking and other non-driving features

Scenario Definition

9

2020 2030 2050

-21% vs. 2005 (2020

climate & energy package)

-43% vs. 2005 (2030 climate

& energy framework)

-80% vs. 1990 (2050 low-

carbon economy)

2020 2030 2050

-7% vs. 2005 (based on EU

effort-sharing decision)

-38% vs. 2005 (based on EU

effort-sharing decision)

-80% vs. 1990 (2050 low-

carbon economy)

EU-ETS CO2 Cap

Country- and

Sector-Specific

Mobility CO2 Cap

Results Germany: Road Transport Sector

10

Emissions

(TTW)

No emissions

(TTW)

Results Germany: Sector-Coupling

11

2 GW in 2030, 6 GW in 2045 electrolysisproducesH2 to be fedinto naturalgas grid (at 10%-vol limit)

Conclusions (for Germany) and further

research

12

• Natural gas and natural gas hybrids serve as a transition technology for passenger

and light-duty vehicles

• Gasoline hybrids will continue to use existing infrastructure in order to decarbonize

the current passenger vehicle segment

• Long-term, electric vehicles dominate passenger and light-duty vehicle segment

• Power-to-hydrogen fed into natural gas grid is used in Germany in 2050 to reduce

carbon emissions of natural gas hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles

• Heavy-duty vehicles use liquid hydrogen starting in 2050, before that LNG

• Electricity consumption due to sector-coupling increases by about 110 TWh in 2015

• Marginal CO2-abatement costs of road transport sector are at least 5 times higher

than in the electricity sector

• If WTT emissions (e.g., from gas reforming to produce H2) are included in the EU-

ETS, the cost-optimal decarbonization pathway for the road transport sector in the

short- and medium- term is mainly conventional, but less carbon-intensive, fuels

• Further research avenues include:

Scenarios investigating further decarbonization policies

Effects of infrastructure costs on investment decisions

Long-term storage of PtX-products via higher spatial and temporal resolution

Accounting for other environmental targets such as Nox emissions, etc.

Accounting for behavioral aspects

Thank you for your attention!

Broghan Helgeson

ewi Energy Research & Scenarios

Alte Wagenfabrik

Vogelsangerstraße 321

D-50827 Köln

Overview Data: Example of Road Transport

14

Parameter Unit Description

Ve

hic

le T

ec

hn

olo

gy

Total driving

distance per yearbillion km

Demand for each segment per

year (ca.

Annual driving

distance per

vehicle per year

km/vehicle per

year

13,800 km/a (PPV),

21,800 km/a (LDV)

70,000 km/a (HDV)

Vehicle lifetime years14 years (PPV),

10 years (LDV, HDV)

Purchase price Euro/kmVaries by vehicle technology

and segment over time

O&M costs Euro/kmVaries by vehicle technology

and segment over time

Fuel

consumptionkWh/km

Measures efficiency, varies by

vehicle technology and

segment over time

Fu

el

Typ

e

CO2 factorkg CO2-eq/

kWh-fuel

CO2 released upon

combustion

„Well-to-Tank“

CO2 factor

kg CO2-eq/

kWh-fuel

CO2 released from fuel

production and distribution

Fuel price Euro/kWh-fuel Varies by fuel and over time

Production costs Euro/kWh-fuel

Transformation of fossil fuels

for use in road transport

sector

Infr

as

tru

ctu

re Capital costs Euro/vehicle Varies by fuel type over time

O&M costs Euro/vehicle Varies by fuel type over time

Distribution costs Euro/vehicle Varies by fuel type over time

Infrastructure

lifetimeyears 14 years