Spohrer darwin woi 20151119 v2

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Panel Discussion Open Innovation & Singularity:The Future of Industries & Business Models

Solomon Darwin (Berkeley Haas) and Jim Spohrer (IBM)Santa Clara Convention Center, CA USA, Thursday November 19th, 2015

http://www.slideshare.net/spohrer/spohrer-darwin-woi-2015119-v2

© IBM 2015, © Solomon N. Darwin – 2015: All Rights Reserved

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Predictions: Courses & Cognitive• 2015

– Course: “How to build a cognitive system for Q&A task.”– 9 months for 40% question answering (Q&A) accuracy for corpus/textbook– 1-2 years for 90% accuracy, mostly which user questions to reject

• 2025– Course: “How to use a cognitive system to be a better professional X.”– Tools to build a student level Q&A from textbook in 1 week

• 2035– Course: “How to use your cognitive assistant to build a unicorn startup.”– Tools to build faculty level Q&A for textbook in one day– Most people have at least one cognitive assistant working for them– A cognitive mediator knows a person better than they know themselves

• 2055– Course: “How to manage your workforce of cognitive assistants.”– Most people have 100 cognitive assistants working for them.


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2035 – pluriforms?


Body suits (“pluriforms” vs uniforms) with style, strength, and safety – like cars.Also, pluriforms have built in phones.

05/01/2023 © IBM 2015, IBM Upward University Programs Worldwide accelerating regional development

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“The best way to predict the future is to inspire the next generation of students to build it better”

Digital Natives Transportation Water Manufacturing

Energy Construction ICT Retail

Finance Healthcare Education Government

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What does the future hold?


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Co-evolution of business models and technology

• Value propositions & technology propositions– Save Time? Weakest Link– Reduce Costs? Exponentials– More Value in Context? User Models/Building Blocks– Breakthrough Pricing? Energy– More Adaptive? Data Superabundance


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Weakest Link – Access to Experts


1955 1975 1995 2015 2035 2055

The past and the future of communication

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Exponential Change


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User Models/Better Building Blocks

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2035

2055


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Energy


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“Information has gone from scarce to superabundant” – The Economist


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CSIG Model: Cognitive Systems Institute Group

• CSIG Model for IBM-University interactions:

• (1) Faculty and students describe their work on weekly ISSIP COI CSIG calls - http://cognitive-science.info/community/weekly-update/

• (2) IBMers and faculty/students identify and work on submitting grant proposals to federal and foundation sources - for example, in USA: http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2015/nsf15610/nsf15610.htm

• (3) Review of any possible IBM awards to support aligned submissions - http://cognitive-science.info/award-recipients/

• (4) Research outcomes/publications and IBM hires students

• (5) possible exchange - IBMers on Campus at university, Faculty/Students at IBM

• (6) CSIG: building cognitive systems is still very hard, and CSIG is exploring how to improve methods to develop cognitive assistants for all occupations


http://cognitive-science.info/community/weekly-update/

http://www.nsf.gov/pubs/2015/nsf15610/nsf15610.htm

http://cognitive-science.info/award-recipients/

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CSIG Algorithm:Cognitive Systems Institute Group

• 1000 occupations are described at the O*NET website: http://www.onetonline.org/

For all occupations in O*NETFor list of tasks in an occupation: Measure: (1) expert/novice performance on related task(2) cognitive system performance on that related task

• Plot the data and update it see the progress.

– An example of (1) above is this article (thanks Franz Dill!): the game Airport Scanner - turning tasks into games to measure expert novice performance levelshttp://eponymouspickle.blogspot.com/2015/01/turning-boring-task-into-game.html

– An example of (2) above is this article (thanks Jean Paul Jacob!)Computer-based personality judgments are more accurate than those made by humans http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/01/07/1418680112


http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http://www.onetonline.org/&urlhash=xlfT&_t=tracking_anet

http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http://eponymouspickle.blogspot.com/2015/01/turning-boring-task-into-game.html&urlhash=4icr&_t=tracking_anet

http://www.linkedin.com/redir/redirect?url=http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2015/01/07/1418680112&urlhash=eKH5&_t=tracking_anet


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Smart Service System:All entities’ in networkuse cognitive mediatorsto enhance value co-creation interactions

Cognitive Mediators:Cognitive systems with deep knowledge of both customer (user) and provider (expert)as co-creators of win-win value

Entity augmentation boosts both creativity and productivity of interactions

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Identify Weakest Links


Energy, Water, Food, Wellness, Cognitive Mediators, Trust

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By 2035, T-Shaped Makers will with great Building Blocks and Cognitive Mediators


Empathy & Teamwork

sectorregion/culture

discipline Dept

h

Breadth

STEM

Liberal Arts


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Learning to program:My first program

Early Computer Science Class:Watson Center at Columbia 1945

Jim Spohrer’s First Program 1972


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In Summary

“A service scienceperspective considersthe evolving ecology of service system entities, their value co-creation andcapability co-elevationinteractions, and their capabilities, constraints,rights, and responsibilities.”

Cognitive SystemsEntities

Service SystemsEntities With

CognitiveMediators

Add Rights &Responsibilities

Assisting individuals and organizations to close their service innovation skills gap

and co-create smarter service systems empowering employees, customers, citizens

with cognitive mediatorsin the collaborative service economy

Spohrer darwin woi 20151119 v2

Education

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