The Lean Startup - Startup Analytics
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Transcript of The Lean Startup - Startup Analytics
Lean Startup Dr. Judith Gentz Fachhochschule Wedel | 8. Juni 2016 4 Startup-Analytics
4 Startup Analytics
Teil 1
Startup Analytics
Teil 2
Till Kubelke und Daniel Hanelt im Gespräch
Absolventen der FH Wedel und seit der Uni über 15 Jahre überzeugte Unternehmer
Validiertes Lernen ist ein Prozess, der empirisch nachweist,
dass ein Team wichtige Wahrheiten über die
gegenwärtigen und zukünftigen
Geschäftsaussichten entdeckt hat.
Quelle: Ries, Eric (2011): The Lean Startup. New York 2011
Validiertes Lernen
Build
Measure Learn
Experiment
Metric Hypothesis
Quelle: Ries, Eric (2011): The Lean Startup. New York 2011
? Was sind Metriken bei einem Startup?
Visits
Logins
Satisfaction
Clicks
Usage
Returns Shares
Access
Sign-ups
Downloads
Tell friends
Payments
Gross Profit
ROI (Return on Invest)
Life Time Value
Churn Rate
Conversionrates
Month-on-month Growth Customer Acquisition Costs
Cost per Action
Active Users
Revenue Recurring Revenue
Accessible Auditable
Actionable
3 A‘s of metrics
ties specific, repeatable actions to observed results
can be understood by entire team
go behind the numbers
Quelle: Ries, Eric (2011): The Lean Startup. New York 2011
Einfache Charts
Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012 http://de.slideshare.net/LeanStartupConf/ash-maurya-slides-2013
Fortschritt kommunizieren
Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012
Problem/ Solution-Fit
Product/ Market-Fit Scale
Start here! Achieve this
Traction
Time
Lean Startup Stages
Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012
Problem/ Solution-Fit
Product/ Market-Fit Scale
Traction
Time
Lean Startup Stages
Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012
Interviews
Demos
Videos
Landing Page
MVP Minimum
Viable Product
Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012
Problem Interview Skript
1. Persönliches Feedback z.B. via Blogs, Kunden-Interviews
2. Offene Fragen/zuhören, was Leute sagen z.B. via Communities
3. Kundenfeedback und Bedarfe ermitteln z.B. via Umfragen mit und ohne monetären Anreiz
4. Substanzielles Feedback durch Vorbestellungen z.B. via Crowdfunding Plattformen, Bestellungen
5. Kundenversprechen testen/Kundensegmente ermitteln z.B. via Test Ads
Quelle: Teten, David (2015): 10 Experiments to Test Your Startup Hypothesis, http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/243528
Weitere Experimente Phase 1: Problem-Solution-Fit
6. Nutzungs- und Verwendungsexperimente z.B. via A/B-Testings, Prototypen-Designs
7. Feedback über die Verwendung z.B. Gespräche mit echten Kunden über die Benutzung des Prototypen
Quelle: Teten, David (2015): 10 Experiments to Test Your Startup Hypothesis, http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/243528
Experimente Phase 2: Product-Market-Fit
8. Kundensegmentierung z.B. Verkaufsversprechen für welche Zielgruppen, Google Adwords-Analyse mit Kohorten- und Conversiontracking
9. Channel-Analyse (welcher Kanal erzielt die höchste Markttraktion) z.B. Cross-Promotion, Channel-Tests Influencer-Analyse
10. Weiterempfehlungen (mit und ohne monetären Anreiz)
Quelle: Teten, David (2015): 10 Experiments to Test Your Startup Hypothesis, http://www.entrepreneur.com/article/243528
Experimente Phase 2: Product-Market-Fit
Build
Measure Learn
Idea Code
Data Quelle: http://theleanstartup.com/principles
MVP Minimum Viable Product
A minimum viable product (MVP) is the "version of a new product which allows a team to collect the maximum amount of validated learning about customers with the least effort“. Eric Ries
Minimum Viable
Product Idea Creation
Feature Priori-
tisation
Implement Feature
Test Feature
Collect Feedback
& Data
Customer Analysis
Different Base
Product Pivot
Time
Test Software Test Business Model
Software Product Concierge Product
Hardware Product Physical Product
Test Hardware Test Business Model Test Software
Launch MVP
€€
Launch MVP
In Anlehnung an: Chen, Elaine (2013): Lean Startup, Hardware Edition, http://de.slideshare.net/chenelaine/lean-startup-hardware-edition-20563840, S. 52
Video Trailer Concierge MVP Mechanical Turk Boomerang Analog/physical Dry-Wallet High Hurdle
Lean Experiment Techniques
Kramer, the Movie Expert
Quelle: Cooper, Brant (2014): Lean Experiment Techniques, http://www.movestheneedle.com/enterprise-lean-startup-experiment-examples/
Experiment Report | Ash Maurya
Background What are you trying to learn or achieve?
Results Enter your qualitative/quantitative data.
Validated Learning Summarize your learning from the experiment. [VALIDATED or INVALIDATED]
Next Action What is the next experiment?
Falsifiable Hypotheses Declare your expected outcome. Use this format: [Specific Repeatable Action] will [Expected Measurable Outcome]
Details How will you setup this experiment?
Title: [TITLE] Author: [NAME] Created: [DATE]
Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012
Pirate Metrics
Acquisition
Activation
Retention
Referral
Revenue
Customer Funnel
How do users find you?
Do users have a great first experience?
Do users come back?
Do users tell others?
How do you make money?
Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.
5 Step Web-Startup Metric Model
Activation
Acquisition
Referral
Retention
Revenue
AARRR
Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.
1. Problem/Solution-Fit Activation & Retention 2. Product/Market-Fit Acquisition & Referral 3. Skalierung Revenue & Profitability
Prozess
Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.
Activation 1st visit happy experience
Homepage/ Landing Page
Product Features
Was machen die Nutzer bei Ihrem ersten Besuch? Schlüssel-Metriken
− Pages per visit − Time on site − Conversions
Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.
Retention come back multiple usage
Warum kommen Nutzer zurück und wie oft?
Schlüssel-Metriken
− Quelle der Wiederkehrer − Wiederkehrrate − Conversions − Nutzerloyalität − Session-Länge
E-Mails, Alerts
System-Events, Time-based features
Blogs, RSS, News Feeds
Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.
Acquisition come from various channels
Wo kommen die Nutzer her?
Schlüssel-Metriken je Quelle
− Anzahl Nutzer − Kosten − Conversion
SEO
SEM Social
Networks
PR
Blogs
Campaigns, Contents
Biz Dev Direct, Tel, TV
Domains
Apps, Widgets
Affiliates
Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.
Referral like product enough refer to others
Wie empfehlen Nutzer das Produkt weiter?
Schlüssel-Metriken
− % Einladungen X − # Einladungen Y − % akzeptierte
Einladungen Z Viral Growth Factor = X*Y*Z
Viral Loops
E-Mail Widgets
Affiliates Contests
Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.
Revenue monetization behavior
Wie verdiene ich Geld?
Schlüssel-Metriken
− Minimum Umsatz − Break-even Umsatz − Profitabilität
Ads, Lead Generation,
Subscriptions, Ecommerce
Biz Dev
Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.
Beispiel
Stage Conversion Status Conv. % Est. Value
Acquisition Visitors on Site/Widget/Landing Page (2+ pages, 10+ sec, 1+ clicks = don‘t abandon)
60% $ 0.05
Activation „Happy“ 1st visit; Usage/Signup (clicks/time/pages, email/profile reg, feature usage)
15% $ 0.25
Retention Users come back; Multiple visits (1-3x visits/mo; email/feed, open rate/CTR)
5% $ 1
Referral Users refer others (cust sat >= 8, viral g factor > 1 1% $ 5
Revenue User pay; Generate $$$ (first rev, break-even, target profitability)
1% $ 50
Quelle: McClure, Dave (2007) Startup Metrics for Pirates.
EXPERIMENT QUEUE
Lean Dashboard | Ash Maurya
Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012
SUCCESS METRICS CURRENT METRICS
EXPERIMENTS
PROBLEM/SOLUTION FIT PRODUCT/MARKET FIT SCALE
KEY OBJECTIVE ACTIVE EXPERIMENTS COMPLETED EXPERIMENTS
BUILD MEASURE LEARN
AARRR KEY METRICS REVENUE STREAMS
EXPERIMENT REPORT
EXPERIMENT QUEUE
Lean Dashboard | Ash Maurya
Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012
SUCCESS METRICS CURRENT METRICS
EXPERIMENTS
PROBLEM/SOLUTION FIT PRODUCT/MARKET FIT SCALE
KEY OBJECTIVE ACTIVE EXPERIMENTS COMPLETED EXPERIMENTS
BUILD MEASURE LEARN
20 Customers
200 Customers
2,000 Customers
8 weeks from now
1.5 years from now
3 years from now
Acquisition Activation
Revenue Retention
Referral 1,000 100%
800 80%
400 50%
200 50%
200 25%
$ 20,000 MRR
Oct 1
1-Page SaaS Metrics will resonate strongly
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Till Kubelke und Daniel Hanelt im Gespräch Absolventen der Hochschule und Entrepreneure seit der Uni
Vielen Dank.
Prozess Startup Analyse
Product
Strategy
Vision
Why
How What
Quelle: Ries, Eric (2011): The Lean Startup. New York 2011; Sinek, Simon (2009): Start With Why: How Great Leaders Inspire Everyone to Take Action
Lean Stack
Quelle: Maurya, Ash (2012): Running Lean: Iterate from Plan A to a Plan That Works. Sebastopol/CA 2012
1 Lean Canvas
2 Lean Dashboard
3 Experiment Report
Why
How
What
