Trends and Megatrends

Ullrich Lorenz, Umweltbundesamt – Dessau, GermanyAlexander Storch, Umweltbundesamt - Vienna, Austria

Copenhagen, EIONET/FLIS, 18.11.2010

Structure of the presentation

Some definitions ..

State of the art, some examples .. SOER EEA European research on socio-economic trends Examples from Germany Example from Austria

Some conclusions, lessons learned ..

Recommendation of the „coordination group“ of NRC FLIS for the upcoming work ..

A common trend monitoring system ..

What‘s a microtrend?notable change with very limited effects

short- or mid-term maybe a starting trend or only regional

What‘s a trend?basic change with some remarkable effects

mid- or long-termsometimes a starting megatrend or only regional

What‘s a megatrend? significant global change

long-termwide-ranging impacts

Disclaimer: this is an intuitive text. There are definitions at http://ew.eea.europa.eu/research/info_resources/reports/Final_Literature_Review_Report_FINNov07_9473.pdf

Assessment of global megatrends

SOER 2010 focus on five sets of interrelated megatrends

social

technological

economical

environmental

political

SOER Part A : 11 Fact sheets for thematic assessments of global mega-trends

demographic shifts

economic growth

increased global regulation

multi-centric power structure

resource competition

pandemic risks

urbanization

climate change

depletion of natural resources

unsustainability and pollution

technological speed

Example - EEA: SCP in Western Balkan Countries

Reserarch on socio-economic trends in Europe FORESCENEDevelopment of a Forecasting Framework and Scenarios to Support the EU Sustainable Development Strategy (FP6 Priority 8.1, 2005-2008)

FOR-LEARNprovide on-line support to Foresight practitioners and users at local, regional, sectoral and national or trans-national level who are either running a Foresight exercise or planning to start one (FP6, DG-Res, ipts- Institute for Prospective Technological Studies 2005-2008)

Literature review and mega trends of driving forces of future environmental change andworkshop on mega-trends and surprises - Research foresight for Environment and Sustainability – (EEA, 2007/2008)

The METRIS ReportEmerging Trends in Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities in Europe (DG Res, 2009)

GLOBAL EUROPE 2030/2050The world and Europe up to 2030/2050 - EU policies and research priorities – an expert group (DG Research – The world and Europe up to 2030/2050 - EU policies and research priorities / EU Research in Foresight and Forecast / SSH Socio-economic Sciences and Humanities; starting March 2010 for 24 months)

Facing the future: time for the EU to meet global challenges(European Commission – JRC Joint Research Centre, ipts- Institute for Prospective Technological Studies 2010)

Example of Trend Analysis in UBA-Germany: Identifying of future „hotspots“

Shift

in population si

ze: in

creas

e, dec

line an

d risin

g migr

ation

Shift

s in population co

mposition: a

ging a

nd youth bulge

s

The e

merging g

lobal middle-

income c

onsumer c

lass

Global urb

anisation

Increasin

g life

expecta

ncy: g

rowing o

ld and se

eking y

outh in

unequal world

Changing p

atter

ns of d

isease

burden gl

obally, a

nd risk o

f new pandem

ics

Global acc

elerati

on and sh

ifts i

n tech

nology deve

lopmen

t cyc

les

The r

ise of t

he nan

o-, bio, IC

T and co

gniti

ve sc

ience

s and te

chnologie

s

Continued economic

growth

Power shift

s – fr

om a uni-polar

to m

ulti-polar

world

Intensifi

ed com

petition fo

r reso

urces

Increasin

g global

economic

regu

lation

Decreasin

g sto

cks o

f nat

ural re

source

s

Increasin

g sev

erity

of the co

nsequence

s of c

limat

e chan

ge

Increasin

g unsu

stainable envir

onmental p

ollution lo

ad

Consum Cluster (focus Germany)

Construction and living 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 1 0 1 0 1 2 2 19

Mobility 1 1 2 2 0 0 2 1 1 0 1 0 2 1 2 16

Clothing 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 7

Food and drinking 2 1 1 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 16

communication 2 2 1 2 1 0 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 15

Health 2 2 1 1 2 2 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 16

Education 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 14

12 11 10 10 7 5 7 5 7 2 5 2 6 7 7

Analysis of 6 megatrends

Disclaimer: this work is not complete!

State of the art: Megatrend Analysis

Relative impact of „drivers“ on „Environmental pollution“ with feedback loops

Relative impact of „drivers“ on „Environmental pollution“ without feedback loops

State of the art: advanced cross-impact-analysis of trends

Energy prices for consumers

rising

Energy eficiency rising

Regulation for energy

eficiency

Extraction of Energy

resources decreasing

Not necessarily!

A causal relationship is determined by the context.

Some lessons learned (in UBA Germany) so far… (SWOT)

• Megatrend and trend analysis, are key for strategic evaluation of measures

• Trend and megatrend analysis help understanding patterns and help deriving priorisations

• Is a complex exercise• „suffers“ recognition/

acceptance by policy makers (due to complexity and long term orientation vs. Short term policy decisions)

• Megatrend are (only) a basis for further analysis

• Monocausal analysis might be misleading

• Better policy advise• Long term decisions

• time consuming and complex

• Many methods and steep learning curve

A microtrend story from Austria (1/4)

Households -electricity demand

Year

Whatwill bethe forwardlookingdemand?

?

A microtrend story from Austria (2/4)

-

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

40,000.00

45,000.00

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TJ

Households -electricity demand

Washing

IT Infrastructure

IT and Entertainment

Cooking

Cooling

Lighting

Year

But thereare somedivergentsubtrends!

A microtrend story from Austria (3/4)

-

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

40,000.00

45,000.00

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TJ

Households -electricity demand

Washing

IT Infrastructure

IT and Entertainment

Cooking

Cooling

Lighting

Year

but just a compen-sation of enhanceddivergentsubtrends!

Stabilisation,

A microtrend story from Austria (4/4)

-

5,000.00

10,000.00

15,000.00

20,000.00

25,000.00

30,000.00

35,000.00

40,000.00

45,000.00

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

TJ

Households -electricity demand

Washing

IT Infrastructure

IT and Entertainment

Cooking

Cooling

Lighting

Year

Break-throughof the subtrenddemand !

Suddenly more fossil power is needed!

Ability to respond on upcoming changes

early detection -> quick response

delayed reaction -> repercussions multiply

inertia -> postponement of urgent decisions

Conclusions for the work in the NRC-FLIS

The aim of further activities should be to focus on

• identification of main trends for the European environment

• interlinkages and impacts of this trends

• updated information

What can FLIS do to boost chances of a smart policy response?

We can co-operate to:

check incipient/emerging microtrends

analyze and monitor effects

presenting results and set-up a warning system

develop common response strategies

Why should we look for trends?

early warning in offical reports

building realistic scenarios

looking for adequate ways to overcome socio-economic obstacles

=> to provide smart and up-to-date policy advice

How a new trend or a change can be found?

Experts keep an eye on

I. driving forces behind new trends

II. statistical clues

III. pressures and risks by a multi-disciplinary systematic search

Scanning by sensitve persons on

I. anticipated changes

II. enhanced risks

III. anxieties and fears

What would a commontrend monitoring system look like?

• Sensoring – collecting signals from individuals

• Scanning – expert research

• Analysing – international network of experts

• Communicating – information to decision makers

What would be the benefitsof a common trend monitoring system?

current trend monitoring

watchful monitoring of early signs

dynamic risk assessment

broad knowledge pool