Trends und Herausforderungen in der Nutzfahrzeugindustrie...2019/10/22 · 1 Trends und...

1

Trends und Herausforderungen in der Nutzfahrzeugindustrie

STS Group - Capital Market Day

Institute of Automotive Technology

Sebastian Wolff, M.Sc.

Frankfurt a.M., 22. October 2019

2017-2018 Team Lead Truck2030

2018 IAA Commercial Vehicles

2017 PhD Candidate Institute of Automotive Technology

2018 Nationale Plattform Zukunft der Mobilität

2019 Team Lead Vehicle Concepts

Research Focus: Commercial Vehicles, Sustainability,

Vehicle Simulation

Introduction

Agenda

3Sebastian Wolff | Trends und Herausforderungen in der Nutzfahrzeugindustrie

Megatrends

Transport Efficiency

New Drivetrains New Vehicle Concepts

Automated Driving

Challenges

121

341

Megatrends | CO2-Emissions


2019

900 g/km

2025 2030

765 g/km 630 g/km

[1,2]

Megatrends | CO2-Emissions


0 %

25 %

50 %

75 %

100 %

125 %

150 %

175 %

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Consumption Total Energy Consumption

[3]

Megatrends | Transport Volume

Sebastian Wolff | Trends und Herausforderungen in der Nutzfahrzeugindustrie

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2020 2030 2040 2050

Tra

nsp

ort

Vo

lum

e in B

n. tk

m

Transport Volume

Germany

+3,2 %p.a.

CV Market

Europe

+1 %p.a.

NAFTA

+1,3 %p.a.

China

+25 %p.a.

[4-8] 6

Megatrends | Digitalization

7

1% 17% 26% 40%

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

140 %

2017 2025 2030 2035

Classic profit pools Emerging profit pools

+1 %p.a.

[5,9]Sebastian Wolff | Trends und Herausforderungen in der Nutzfahrzeugindustrie

Transport Efficiency


Infrastructre is key factor

Mix of different drives until 2030 and beyond

Transport Efficiency | New Drive Concepts 2030


Light Duty Vehicles (<150 km)

~40 % Alternative drives

BEV will be dominant

Heavy Duty Vehicles

~30-40 % Alternative drives

~10-15 % BEV

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2015 2020 2025 2030

HD

V S

tock in k

ve

hic

les

Diesel FCEV BEV PHEV LNG Catenary

[10]

Energy Sources


Diesel LNG eFuels Hydrogen Catenary Battery

CO2-Reduction 0 % < 1 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %

Local Emission

FreeNo No No Yes Yes Yes

Primary Energy

Demand1 1 4-5 2-3 0,4 0,35

Infrastructure - 2.5 Bn. € 10 Bn. € 1.2 Bn. € 24 Bn. € 7 Bn. €

TCO 100 % 95 % 125 % 120 % 105 % 150 %

Payload 27.3 t 27.4 t 27.3 t 27.0 t 27.3 t 21.0 t

[11]

Long Vehicle Concept

High potential to reduce emissions and costs

Majority of road transport is volume critical

Aerodynamic

EU Directive 96/53/EC: +500 mm at rear

Extended front further benefits efficiency and security

Transport Efficiency | New Vehicle Concepts


Truck2030 Vehicle Concept

Truck2030 | Summary


Improvement in transport efficiency

Reduction of specific CO2-emissions (gCO2/tkm) of ~40 %

Aerodynamic

Trailer

-2 %cD

Rearflaps

-9 %cD

Camera Mirror

-4 %cD

Side Skirts

-5 %cD

Underbody

-4 %cD

Total

-20 %cDSebastian Wolff | Trends und Herausforderungen in der Nutzfahrzeugindustrie 13

Important future lever to improve transport efficiency

Lightweight Design


0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Gaines 1996 FTM 2019

Tra

cto

rW

eig

htin

kg

Steel Iron Aluminum Plastic Rubber Other

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Gaines 1996 FTM 2019

Mate

rial M

ix

Steel Iron Aluminum Plastic Rubber Other

+33 %

[12]

Automated Driving


Automated Driving | Platooning

Possible Distance

10-15 mConsumption

-3 %TCO

-1 %Requires high degree of

V2X connectivity

Use case better for full

autonomy

[7,13] 16Sebastian Wolff | Trends und Herausforderungen in der Nutzfahrzeugindustrie

Automated Driving | Driver‘s Workplace

17

Vacant positions:

185000until 2027 in Germany

Average age

> 47years

Health problems

> 41 %with back pain

> 75 % can imagine doing

sports while driving

[14,15]Sebastian Wolff | Trends und Herausforderungen in der Nutzfahrzeugindustrie

Autonomous Driving | New Vehicle Concepts

18

Total share

~10 % in 2030

Adoption rates

10 % LDV

20 % HDV

Use Cases: Long-haul,

closed space

TCO saving

15-45 %

Sebastian Wolff | Trends und Herausforderungen in der Nutzfahrzeugindustrie 18[7,8]

Challenges


Restrictions and Regulations


Historic development: 1.06 %p.a.

Required for emission reduction target: 2.7-3.8 %p.a.

[16]

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

CO

2R

ed

uctio

n

Daimler

Iveco

MAN

Scania

Volvo

EU Regulation

Securing and integrating

critical technology

OEMs expand

downstream to emerging

profit pools

Pay per Use Models

Fleet Management

Transport as a Service

New and emerging profit

pools for suppliers

New Business Models

21Sebastian Wolff | Trends und Herausforderungen in der Nutzfahrzeugindustrie [7,8]

Summary


In 2030 there

will be a mix of

different drives

and fuels.

HDV adopt AV

technology early and fast

due to attractive

conditions and use

cases.

The industry faces the

challenge to merge

economical and

ecological requirements.

Thank you!

Institute of Automotive Technology

Sebastian Wolff, M.Sc.

089 289 15881

www.ftm.mw.tum.de


Sources


[1] Europäischer Rat, CO2-Emissionsnormen für Lastkraftwagen: Rat einigt sich auf Standpunkt - Consilium. [Online] Verfügbar: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/de/press/press-releases/2018/12/20/co2-emission-standards-for-trucks-council-agrees-its-position/. Gefunden am: Apr. 16 2019.[2] Shell Deutschland Oil GmbH, Hrsg, “Shell Nutzfahrzeug-Studie: Diesel oder Alternative Antriebe - Womit fahren LKW und Bus morgen?,” Hamburg, 2016.[3] Umweltbundesamt, Endenergieverbrauch und Energieeffizienz des Verkehrs. [Online] Verfügbar: https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/daten/verkehr/endenergieverbrauch-energieeffizienz-des-verkehrs#textpart-5. Gefunden am: Apr. 16 2019.[4] Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, Freight transport in the EU-28 modal split of inland transport modes (% of total tonne-kilometres). [Online] Verfügbar: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php/File:Freight_transport_in_the_EU-28_modal_split_of_inland_transport_modes_(%25_of_total_tonne-kilometres).png. Gefunden am: Apr. 05 2018.[5] Prognos AG, “World Transport Report 2015/2016: Prognosen für den Güterverkehr bis 2040,” Basel, 2015.[6] L. Ickert, “Abschätzung der langfristigen Entwicklung des Güterverkehrs in Deutschland bis 2050: Schlussbericht,” 2007. [Online] Verfügbar: https://www.prognos.com/fileadmin/pdf/Reports/World_Transport_Report/Prognos_Faktenblatt_1_Vorkrisenniveau.pdf. Gefunden am: Apr. 06 2018.[7] B. Heid, “Commercial vehicles 2030 - competitive environment, trends, and technologies,” München, Mai. 23 2019.[8] A. Jentzsch, J. Janda, G. Xu, P. Wiedenhoff, und A. Girisch, “The Future of Commercial Vehicles: How New Technologies are Transforming the Industry,” 2019. Gefunden am: Okt. 21 2019.[9] Boston Consulting Group, By 2035, New Mobility Tech Will Drive 40% of Auto Industry Profits. [Online] Verfügbar: https://www.bcg.com/d/press/11january2018-automotive-profit-pools-180934. Gefunden am: Okt. 21 2019.[10] Dr. Almut Kirchner, Alex Auf der Maur, Samuel Straßburg (Prognos AG), Philipp Gebert, Andreas Jentzsch, Jens Burchardt, Maria Meiler, “Analyse Klimapfade Verkehr 2030,” 02.2019.[11] S. Wolff, M. Fries, und M. Lienkamp, “Technoecological analysis of energy carriers for long‐haul transportation,” Journal of Industrial Ecology, Bd. 49, Rn. 11, S. 6402, 2019.[12] L. Gaines, F. StodoIsky, und Cuenca R, “Lifecycle-analysis for heavy vehicles,” in 91st Air and Waste Management Association Meeting and Exhibition, 1998.[13] F. Hubik, “Vernetzte Trucks: Daimler beerdigt die Hoffnungstechnik Platooning,” Handelsblatt, 07 Jan, 2019.[14] I. Jüngst, IRU warnt vor akutem Fahrermangel. [Online] Verfügbar: https://www.eurotransport.de/artikel/bis-2027-fehlen-185-000-fahrer-iru-warnt-vor-akutem-fahrermangel-10730376.html. Gefunden am: Okt. 21 2019.[15] J. Bergrath, Der Job des Lkw-Fahrers macht krank. [Online] Verfügbar: https://www.eurotransport.de/artikel/lkw-fahrer-haben-berufskrankheiten-384486.html. Gefunden am: Okt. 21 2019.[16] K.-C. Scheel, “Kommentar: Klimaschutz im Transportsektor – Innovation vs. Regulierung,” München, 05.2019.

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