Ulrich Pflüger & Ulrich Damrath

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007 Current state of COSMO- EU and COSMO-DE verification using Analysis, SYNOP- and upper air observations Ulrich Pflüger & Ulrich Damrath

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Current state of COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE verification using Analysis, SYNOP- and upper air observations. Ulrich Pflüger & Ulrich Damrath. Outline. Verification against analysis Verification against SYNOPs Traditional verification - known problems Conditional verification - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Ulrich Pflüger & Ulrich Damrath

Page 1: Ulrich Pflüger & Ulrich Damrath

U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Current state of COSMO-EU and COSMO-DE verification using Analysis, SYNOP- and

upper air observations

Ulrich Pflüger & Ulrich Damrath

Page 2: Ulrich Pflüger & Ulrich Damrath

U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Outline

• Verification against analysis• Verification against SYNOPs

Traditional verification - known problems Conditional verification

• Verification against upper air observations Some time series A problem using observations

• Verification against SYNOP-observations

Warning: Be prepared to see a lot of red and blue lines!

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Verification against analysis

• All levels• All forecast times with an increment of 12

hours• All elements on pressure levels• Comparison with GME

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Verification against analysis: mslp

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Verification against analysis: RH 850 hPa

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Verification against SYNOPstemperature 06 UTC

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Verification against SYNOPstemperature 12 UTC

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Verification against SYNOPstemperature 18 UTC

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Verification against SYNOPsmaximum temperature 06-18 UTC

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Verification against SYNOPspressure bias 06 UTC

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Example for conditional verificationForecasted and observed values of surface level pressure over the region of Germany during DJF 2005/2006(RMSE and STDV)

Forecasted and observed values of surface level pressure over the region of Germany during DJF 2005/2006 observed and forecasted values lower than 1020 hPa(RMSE and STDV)

Forecasted and observed values of surface level pressure over the region of Germany during DJF 2005/2006 observed and forecasted values higher than 1020 hPa(RMSE and STDV)

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Conditional verification

• Surface weather elements• Conditions concerning

cloud cover pressure temperature

• Criteria observation below/above mean observation forecast below/above mean observation

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Conditional verification (no condition, winter)

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Conditional verification (high cloud covers, winter)

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Conditional verification (low cloud covers, winter)

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Conditional verification (high temperatures, winter)

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Conditional verification (low temperatures, winter)

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Conditional verification (no condition, summer)

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Conditional verification (high temperatures, summer)

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Conditional verification (low temperatures, summer)

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

RMSE Rel.Hum./Temperature (LM Area)

2006 2007

2006 2007

2005

2005

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

RMSE Wind Speed/Geopotential (LM Area)

2006 2007

2006 2007

2005

2005

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

BIAS Rel.Humidity/Temperature (LM Area)

2006 2007

2006 20072005

2005

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE Summer 2006/2007 in LM Area

Summer2006

Summer2007

BIAS

LM Area

LM Area

BIASBIAS

BIASBIAS

RMSERMSE

RMSERMSE

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE Summer 2007 in COSMO-DE/LM Area

Summer2007

Summer2007

BIAS

COSMO-DE Area

LM Area

BIASBIAS

BIASBIAS

RMSERMSE

RMSERMSE

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE June 2007 COSMO-DE/EU

BIASBIAS RMSERMSE

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE July 2007 COSMO-DE/EU

BIASBIAS RMSERMSE

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Comparison: Temperature BIAS/RMSE August 2007 COSMO-DE/EU

BIASBIAS RMSERMSE

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Comparison: BIAS/RMSE of COSMO-EU Temperature, Winddirection/speedagainst Radiosonde and Windprofiler Data from Lindenberg

BIASBIAS

BIASBIAS

BIASBIAS

BIASBIAS

BIASBIAS

BIASBIAS

RMSERMSE

RMSERMSE

RMSERMSE

RMSERMSE

RMSERMSE

RMSERMSE

00 UTC00 UTC

12 UTC12 UTC

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U. Pflüger & U. Damrath, COSMO GM, Athens 2007

Summary• Verification against analysis confirms some problems

that can be shown with verification against SYNOPs

• Verification against SYNOPs Problems with pressure bias indicate the need of a SSO-scheme Systematic errors of temperature forecasts can be partial explained by

conditional verification

• Verification against upper air observations Effects of pseudotemps and introduction of GME/40km can be seen

clearly Cold bias of temperature within the boundary layer is a COSMO-law,

especially during winter Some systematic differences between COSMO-EU and -DE exist for the

boundary layer Be careful when using new observation systems to verify a model!