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Update

24 July 2013

Michael Workman Senior Economist T. +612 9118 1019 E. michael.workman@cba.com.auohn Peters Senior Economist T. +612 9117 0112 E. john.peters@cba.com.auareth Aird Economist T. +612 9118 1100 E. gareth.aird@cba.com.au

mportant Disclosures and analyst certifications regarding subject companies are in the Disclosure and Disclaimer Appendix of this document and atww.research.commbank.com.au. This report is published, approved and distributed by Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945.

CPI QII 2013

The headline CPI rose by 0.4% in QII, and annual growth now stands at 2.4%.

The QII underlying CPI rose 0.6%, to be running at 2.4%pa.

On todays CPI outcome, the RBA can maintain its easing bias.

But the case for a near term rate cut is little less clear.

In a close call, we think the RBA will slice rates by 0.25% to 2.5% after the 6 th August Board meeting.

Analysis

The QII headlineCPI grew by 0.4%, lower than market expectations which centred on a rise of 0.5% {CBA (f) 0.4%}.

Annual growth stepped down from 2.5% to 2.4%.

The more important monetary policy measure of underlyinginflation printed a shade higher than expected at 0.6% in QIIfollowing QIs reading of 0.4%. From a policy perspective, the latest CPI offerings mean that risks remain skewed towardsanother rate cut. On a six-month-ended basis that smooths out quarterly volatility, the QII underlyingCPI was running at2.1%, the bottom of the RBAs target band. Together with a softish economy, and an uptrend in unemployment, the RBAwill be able to comfortably retain its easy bias at the very least.

We believe that, on balance, the RBA will pull that policy trigger again soon and most probably cut official rates by 0.25%to 2.5% after the upcoming 6th August Board meeting.

Beneath the surface, todays data reveals the two speed divide that lies at the heart of the current inflation story. What willconcern policy makers are signs that domestic(or non-tradables) inflation appears to be trending higher and the usualrelationship with (slowing) wages growth has weakened. Indeed, QII non-tradablesinflation lifted by 0.5%, to be running at

4.3% in annual terms (i.e. well above the RBA target). Meanwhile, tradablesprices rose by 0.3% in QII to be down 0.7%pa.

A key driver of domestic inflation in QII was the housing componentwhich rose by 0.6% to be running at a very solid5.3%pa. Driving the lift in housing costswere: new dwelling purchase prices, which increased by 0.9%, to be up 3.6%pa;and rentswhich jumped by 1.1%, to be running at 3.4%pa. After todays data, the RBA will continue to closely eyeballthe further unfolding housing story. As canvassed above, one of the biggest contributors to CPI growth in HI 2013 has beenhigher prices for new dwellings purchased by owner-occupiers. This CPI component is correlated with dwelling prices andprovides a further indication that low interest rates have commenced feeding into higher prices, something about which theRBA will be particularly circumspect in HII 2013 and beyond. Watch this space!

Moreover, a new medium term threat to inflation on the upside may emanate from the sharp slide in the AUD since mid-April. In the past couple of years, a significant restraint on overall inflation has come largely courtesy of the rising Aussiedollar to historically high levels of above parity with the USD, and consequent falling import prices. But that benefit hadbeen largely used up by mid- 2012 and margins have been squeezed since then. The drop in the AUD since mid-April

points to risingimport prices down the line. These will not have been picked up substantively in the QII CPI (i.e. too soon),although tradablesinflation actually lifted by 0.3% in QII, but was still stuck in negative territory in annual terms at -0.7%pa- and still a force for good in keeping overall inflation tame at 2.4%pa in QII.

Current RBA inflation forecasts are based on exchange rate assumptions of USD1.02 and TWI=77. The AUD is now some9-11% below those levels. All else unchanged, the RBA may need to revise up its medium-term inflation projectionsifrecent falls in the AUD are sustained. RBA research suggests that a 10% fall in the exchange rate will boost consumerprices by around 1% over three years. Some of this shift is already evident. Global oil prices, for example, in the periodsince the AUD began to fall are little changed. But local currency petrol prices have increased by more than 15/litre.

All up the recent AUD drop, in the context of the latest CPI, bolsters our view that a likely further RBA rate cut will be thelast for this cycle, with cash rate bottoming at 2.5%. At the time of writing, markets have factored in a 55% chance of anAugust RBA rate cut of 0.25%.

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The QII Outcome

The headline CPI rose by 0.4% in QII to be2.4% higher over the year.

The key policy measures of underlying inflation

are running around 2.4%pa. This is just underthe mid-point of the RBAs 2-3% inflation targetband.

Todays data confirm that inflationary pressuresare benign and have so far been well contained.The QII CPI figures keep the door ajar for afurther rate cut if the central bank deemsnecessary. There are, however, upside risks toimported inflation in the medium-term due to aweaker AUD.

The significant price rises in QII occurred inclothing and footwear (+2.7%) and in particular,

garments for men (+7.1%). We normally expecta seasonal increase in clothing and footwear inQII following the post-Christmas discounting inQI. Though the increase in higher than usualdue to exceptional discounting in QI. Arebound from the exceptional discounting in QIwas something of a theme in QII. Our proxy ofconsumer durables rose by 1.3% during thequarter and added 0.14ppts to QII CPI growth.

The sizeable increase in health care (+1.9%)was expected due to an increase in privatehealth fund premiums effective from 1 April2013.

New dwelling purchase by owner-occupiers(+0.9%) and rents (+1.1%) continued to trendhigher. Alcohol and tobacco was up 1.3%,partially due to the flow-on effects from thefederal excise tax increase from February 2013.

There were significant price falls in automotivefuel (-3.1%), domestic holiday travel andaccommodation (-4.0%) and audio, visual andcomputing equipment (-1.9%).

The CPI rose in all capital cities. Darwin hadthe highest growth over the quarter (+0.9%) and

also has the highest annual growth (+3.9%).Following, on an annual basis, is NSW (+2.6%),Perth (+2.5%), Melbourne (+2.2%), Canberra(+2.2%), Adelaide (+2.1%), Brisbane (+2.0%)and Hobart (+1.8%).

Tradables and other measures

Tradables goods and services are about 40%by weight of the CPI. They are goods andservices with prices largely set in internationalmarkets and influenced by relative shifts in theAUD against other currencies. They rose by

0.3% in QII to be 0.7% lower than a year ago.Tradables goods prices rose 0.3% whileservices rose by 0.5%. Tradables prices inannual terms have been negative for the pastsix quarters.

Table 1: CPI Components QII 2013

% ch %paContrib

(q/q ppts)

CPI (nsa) 0.4 2.4 -

Food & non alc bev 0.1 1.1 0.02

Alcohol & tobacco 1.3 4.0 0.10

Clothing & footwear 2.7 -0.3 0.10

Housing 0.6 5.3 0.15

Furnishings etc 1.0 0.1 0.09

Health 1.9 6.6 0.11

Transport -0.9 -0.5 -0.10

Communication 0.4 2.2 0.02

Recreation & culture -0.8 -0.1 -0.10

Education -0.1 5.7 -0.01

Insurance & fin serv 0.3 2.7 0.02

Goods 0.3 1.3 0.2

Services 0.5 3.8 0.2

Tradables 0.3 -0.7 0.1

Non-tradables 0.5 4.3 0.3

Underlying measures

Wgtd median (sa) 0.7 2.6 -

Trimmed mean (sa) 0.5 2.2 -

CPI(sa) 0.5 2.3 -

Ex volatiles (nsa) 0.6 2.6 -

Table 2: Capital City Outcomes QII 2013

% ch %pa

CPI (nsa) 0.4 2.6

Sydney 0.2 2.2

Melbourne 0.5 2.0

Brisbane 0.2 2.1

Adelaide 0.6 2.5

Perth 0.4 1.8

Hobart 0.9 3.9

Darwin 0.6 2.2

Canberra 0.4 2.4

Australia (wght avg) 0.4 2.4

0

2

4

6

8

0

2

4

6

8

Sep-98 Sep-01 Sep-04 Sep-07 Sep-10 Sep-13

CONSUMER PRICES(annual % change)% %

Headline

Underlying

The headline CPIrose by 0.5% in QIIto be 2.4% higherover the year.

Inflationarypressures have sofar been wellcontained.

But there are upsiderisks to imported

inflation in the near-term due to aweaker AUD.

Inflation is highest inDarwin and lowest inHobart.

Tradables pricesrose 0.3% in QII.

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Non-tradables (60% of the CPI and mainlyservices) rose by 0.5% to be 4.3% higher overthe past year. Non-tradables prices have beenabove 3.5%pa since mid-2011, In our view, itindicates the ability of service-based groups,like health, utilities, education and financial

services to consistently lift prices at well abovethe general inflation rate. RBA inflationforecasts require domestic inflation to slow.This requirement looks challenging.

Goods prices rose by 0.3% in QII to be 1.3%higher over the past year, while services pricesrose by 0.5% to be 3.8% higher over the year.Excluding volatile items, like petrol and freshfood, goods prices rose by 0.7% in QII and overthe year, while services rose by 0.2% and2.7%pa.

Tradables and the AUD

The fall in the AUD, since mid-April, against theUSD and the Euro is likely to produce higherimported goods and services prices. But thetraditional pattern may be altered if retailersremain under pressure to absorb some of theimported goods price rises.

Looking at previous episodes of a weaker AUD,via the Trade Weighted Index (TWI), shows thatthere is a lift in the across the docks prices.The major issue for the next years inflationoutcomes is whether the full lift in importedgoods prices is passed on at the retail level.Recent evidence is showing an unusually stronglevel of discounting by retailers. And durablegoods prices, for example, are about 3% lowerover the past year.

For the June quarter 2013 the TWI fell by 6% onour estimates, following three quarters ofmodest rises. If the usual patterns are followed,the tradables component for the CPI would riseover the next few quarters. But the recentexperience is slightly different. The tradablesmeasure showed larger than expected falls inlate 2012 and early 2013 even though the TWI

was little changed over the period.

Current RBA inflation forecasts are based onexchange rate assumptions of USD1.02 andTWI=77. The AUD is now some 9-11% belowthose levels. All else unchanged, the RBA willneed to revise up its medium-term inflationprojections. RBA research suggests that a 10%fall in the exchange rate will boost consumerprices by around 1% over three years.

Petrol prices and the AUD

The automotive fuel component of the CPI fell

by 3.1% in QII. This is because petrol prices fellin April and May and then rose over June. Butoverall, petrol prices were lower in QII than inQI. Since then, the combination of rising oilprices and a weaker AUD has seen nominal

-2

0

2

4

6

-2

0

2

4

6

Sep-99 Sep-02 Sep-05 Sep-08 Sep-11 Sep-14

CPI: TRADABLES v OTHER(annual % chg)% %

Non-tradables

Tradables

CPI

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Sep-06 Sep-08 Sep-10 Sep-12

CONSUMER PRICES(annual % chg, ex volatile items)% %

Goods

Services

-24

-9

6

21

36-20

-10

0

10

20

Sep-91 Sep-97 Sep-03 Sep-09

PASS THROUGH - STAGE I

(annual % change) %%

Inverse TWI(rhs)

Importedconsumer

goods prices(lhs)

-20

0

20

40-3

0

3

6

Sep-98 Sep-01 Sep-04 Sep-07 Sep-10 Sep-13

CPI & THE AUD(annual % change) %%

Inverse TWI(adv 1 qtr, rhs)

CPI tradables

prices (lhs)

The automotive fuelcomponent of the

CPI fell by 3.1% inQII.

Tradables and theAUD.

All else unchanged,the RBA will need torevise up itsmedium-terminflation projections.

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petrol prices at their highest level since 2008.In real terms, however, they have not yet hittheir 2008 highs.

Impact of higher petrol prices on CPI

Retail petrol prices have a weight of 3% percent in the headline CPI. Swings in petrolprices can have a significant impact on headlineinflation. Changes in the price of retail petrolprices are essentially driven by two things: (i)the global price of crude oil; and (ii) theexchange rate. We can combine factors (i) and(ii) by measuring the global price of crude oil inAustralian dollars.

On this basis, the price of crude oilin AUDequivalent has risen by around 30% since mid-April (when the AUD peaked against the USD).This compares with a rise of around 12% in the

price of crude oil in USD terms. Over that sameperiod, the price of petrolrose by a smallamount. But the price will continue to trendhigher over the coming weeks because of thelag between changes in the spot price of crudeoil and prices at the pump.

The total percentage change in the retail petrolprice, however, should always be smaller thanthe percentage change in the exchange rateadjusted crude oil price. This is because excisetaxes are levied on the volume sold rather thanon the price sold (the excise rate is currently 38

cents per litre). All up, taxes are currentlyaround 40% of the bowser price. Other costsassociated with the sale of petrol (e.g. wages,storage, transportation) are non-trivial and arefairly stable over time.

If the retail petrol price averages around itscurrent level ($1.54 a litre) then it will be up 7%over QIII which would contribute 0.25ppts toQIII headline CPI.

Impact on Consumer Spending &

Economy

Petrol expenditure is one of the biggest regularexpenses for households. On our estimates,the current critical price price at which theprice of petrol impacts other householdspending decisions is $1.44 per litre (consumerdemand for petrol is relatively inelastic up untilthis price). With the current retail petrol priceabove that critical price, there will be someimpact on household expenditure decisions.Either the car will be driven less or there will besmall changes to other expenditure decisions,particularly discretionary purchases, like eatingout or entertainment. The rise in retail petrol

prices, however, has been softened to someextent by fuel docket discounts issued by thebig supermarket chains.

-30

-15

0

15

30-6

-3

0

3

6

Sep-03 Sep-06 Sep-09 Sep-12

% %

Consumerdurables

prices(lhs)

TWI(adv 2 qtrs)

(inverse, rhs)

DURABLES PRICES & THE AUD(annual % change)

70

80

90

100

110

130

136

142

148

154

Jan12

Mar12

Jun12

Sep12

Dec12

Feb13

May13

Aug13

USDpbc/l

Petrolprices

(AUD, lhs)

Oil prices(WTI, rhs)

OIL & PETROL PRICES

75

85

95

105

115

125

130

136

142

148

154

160

Jan12

Mar12

Jun12

Sep12

Dec12

Feb13

May13

Aug13

AUDpbc/l

Petrolprices

(AUD, lhs)

Oil )

OIL & PETROL PRICES

Oil prices(WTI, rhs)

80

105

130

155

80

105

130

155

Sep-01 Sep-04 Sep-07 Sep-10 Sep-13

PETROL STRESS LEVELSc/l c/l

Criticalprice

Actual

price

c/l c/l

Criticalprice

Actual

price

Current

price

153.5c/l

Retail petrol priceshave a weight of3% in the headlineCPI.

The price of crudeoil in AUD equivalenthas risen by 30%since mid-April.

But over that sameperiod, the price ofpetrol rose by asmall amount due tolags betweenchanges in the oilprice and changes inthe petrol pumpprice.

The current criticalprice at which theprice of petrolimpacts householdspending decisionsis $1.44 per litre.

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