Was heisst "Wandel" in komplexen Systemen?

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Den Wandel gestalten 25.11.2016 www.comitans.ch 1 …Neues aus der Komplexitätsforschung, Biokybernetik, Systemtheorie… Freie Gedanken… Philippe Vallat Was heisst “Wandel” in komplexen Systemen? Den Wandel gestalten - 25.11.2016 Wandel und Komplexität 1 Agenda 1. Komplexe Systeme? 2. Wandel 3. Mentale Muster 4. Welche Haltung? 5. «Post-…»: was nacher? Den Wandel gestalten - 25.11.2016 Wandel und Komplexität 2

Transcript of Was heisst "Wandel" in komplexen Systemen?

Den Wandel gestalten 25.11.2016

www.comitans.ch 1

…Neues aus der Komplexitätsforschung, Biokybernetik, Systemtheorie…

Freie Gedanken…

Philippe Vallat

Was heisst “Wandel” in komplexen Systemen?

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Agenda

1. Komplexe Systeme?

2. Wandel

3. Mentale Muster

4. Welche Haltung?

5. «Post-…»: was nacher?

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“Complexity theory is not a cohesive theory. It is not one equation.

It is really a collection of ideas about the concept of change in complex adaptive systems […].

It talks about the dynamics of change in a system.”

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Irene Sanders

KOMPLEXE SYSTEME?

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Cynefin Framework

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Stacey’s complexity graph

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Komplexität?(Kredit: Jürgen Appelo)

John H. Holland

The properties of complex adaptivesystems are:

• Aggregation• Nonlinearity• Flows• Diversity

Michael C. Jackson

There are six notions in complexitytheory:

• Sensitivity to initial conditions(butterfly effect)

• Strange attractors (unpredictability)

• Self-similarity (fractals)• Self-organization (distributed

control)• The edge of chaos (emergence)• Fitness landscapes (continuous

improvement)

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Komplexität nach Jeffrey Goldstein(Kredit: Jürgen Appelo)

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Complex_systems_organizational_map.jpg

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Umgang mit Komplexität(Jürgen Appelo)

� Address complexity with complexity

� Use a diversity of models

� Assume dependence on context

� Assume subjectivity and coevolution

� Anticipate, adapt, and explore

� Develop models in collaboration

� Copy and change

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WANDEL?

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Mikroveränderung: Evolution, Progression, Inkrement Makroveränderung:

Revolution, Diskontinuität, Disruption

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“For systems dynamics thinkers, the aim is to identify

leverage points for interventions that will enable them

to identify where, when and how to initiate change and

so stay in control.

However, the ability to do this in a system that is

sensitive to tiny changes is called into question. That

obviously has serious implications for the human ability

to stay ‘in control’.”

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Ralph Stacey

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Ökozyklus des Wandels(Hurst)

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Wo steht das System?

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MENTALE MUSTER?

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“The search for simple –if not simpleminded–solutions to complex problems is a consequence of the inability to deal effectively with complexity.”

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Russel Ackoff

Problem der Fähigkeiten (Alberts)

� Fähigkeit, das Problem

zu verstehen

� Fähigkeit, das Problem

zu lösen

� Fähigkeit zu

entscheiden (lassen)

� Fähigkeit zu lernen

und sich anzupassen

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Alberts, David S. The Agility Advantage: A Survival Guide for Complex Enterprises and Endeavors. Washington, DC: DoD Command and Control Research Program, 2011.

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Leverage Points: Places to Intervene in a System (Donella Meadows, 1997)

12. Constants, parameters, numbers (such as subsidies, taxes, standards)11. The size of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows10. Structure of material stocks and flows (such as transport network,

population age structures)9. Length of delays, relative to the rate of system changes8. Strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the effect they are trying to

correct against7. Gain around driving positive feedback loops6. Structure of information flow

(who does and does not have access to what kinds of information)5. Rules of the system (such as incentives, punishment, constraints)4. Power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure3. Goal of the system2. Mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules,

delays, parameters — arises from1. Power to transcend paradigms

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http://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/

Grösste Hebel

3. Goal of the systemChanging goals changes every item listed above: parameters, feedback loops, information and self-organization.

2. Mindset or paradigm that the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters — arises fromA societal paradigm is an idea, a shared unstated assumption, or a system of thought that is the foundation of complex social structures. Paradigmsare very hard to change, but there are no limits to paradigm change.

1. Power to transcend paradigmsTranscending paradigms may go beyond challenging fundamentalassumptions, into the realm of changing the values and priorities that lead to the assumptions, and being able to choose among value sets at will.

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Fünf Diszipline(Peter Senge)

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1) Selbstschulung

undPersönlichkeits-

entwicklung

2) Mentale Modelle

3) GemeinsameVision

4) Lernen imTeam

5) Denken in Systeme

Wandel und Komplexität

Logische Ebenen(Robert Dilts)

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10 core materialistic beliefs(Rupert Sheldrake)

1. Everything is essentially mechanical. Dogs,

for example, are complex mechanisms, rather

than living organisms with goals of their own.

Even people are machines, “lumbering robots,”

in Richard Dawkins' vivid phrase, with brains

that are like genetically programmed

computers.

2. All matter is unconscious. It has no inner life

or subjectivity or point of view. Even human

consciousness is an illusion produced by the

material activities of brains.

3. The total amount of matter and energy is

always the same (with the exception of the

Big Bang, when all the matter and energy of

the universe suddenly appeared).

4. The laws of nature are fixed. They are the

same today as they were at the beginning, and

they will stay the same forever.

5. Nature is purposeless, and evolution has no

goal or direction.

6. All biological inheritance is material,

carried in the genetic material, DNA, and in

other material structures.

7. Minds are inside heads and are nothing but

the activities of brains. When you look at a

tree, the image of the tree you are seeing is

not “out there,” where it seems to be, but

inside your brain.

8. Memories are stored as material traces in

brains and are wiped out at death.

9. Unexplained phenomena like telepathy are

illusory.

10. Mechanistic medicine is the only kind that

really works.

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The Eight Laws of Social Change

“Social Change requires wisdom, character, patience, and the willingness to forego any personal credit.”

Stephan A. Schwartz

www.stephanaschwartz.com/

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The Eight Lawsof Social Change

1.The individuals (individually) and the

group (collectively) share a common

intention.

2.The individuals and the group may

have goals and cherish the potential

outcomes.

3.The individuals in the group accept

that their goal may not be reached in

their lifetimes, and are O.K. with that.

4.The individuals in the group accept

that they may not get either credit or

acknowledgment for what they have

done, and are authentically O.K. about

this.

5. Each person in the group regardless

of gender, religion, race, or culture

enjoy fundamental equality while the

various roles in the hierarchy of the

effort are respected.

6. The individuals in the group

foreswear violence in word, act or

thought.

7. The individuals in the group must

make their personal lives consistent

with their public postures.

8. The individuals (individually) and the

group (collectively) always act from

the “beingness” of integrity.

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primumnon nocere

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Beingness

“It is from Beingness that Doingness

springs...

not the other way around. “

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Neale Donald Walsch

http://aboq.org/walsch/bulletin/beingness.htm

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POST-?

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The Bond

Frontier biologists, physicists, psychologists and

sociologists have all found evidence that (…)

between the smallest particles of our being, our

bodies and their environments, ourselves and all of

the people with whom we are in contact, (…) there is

a Bond – (…) there is no longer a clear demarcation

between the end of one thing and the beginning of

another.

The world essentially operates, not through the

activity of individual things, but in the connection

between them -- in a sense, within the space

between things.

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Lynne McTaggart

http://thebond.net/

Morphic fields

Morphic resonance gives an inherent memory in

fields at all levels of complexity. Any given

morphic system, say, a squirrel, "tunes in" to

previous similar systems, in this case previous

squirrels of its species. Through this process each

individual squirrel draws upon, and in turn

contributes to, a collective or pooled memory of

its kind. In the human realm, this kind of

collective memory corresponds to what the

psychologist C. G. Jung called the "collective

unconscious."

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http://noetic.org/noetic/issue-four-november-2010/morphic-fields-and-morphic-resonance/

Ruppert Sheldrake

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Manifesto for a Post-Materialist Science

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“The nearly absolute dominance of materialism in the academic world has seriously constricted the sciences…”

“Science is first and foremost a non-dogmatic, open-minded method of acquiring knowledge about nature”

“Psychological studies have shown that conscious mental activity can causally influence behavior”

“…we can mentally influence—at a distance—physical devices and living organisms (including other human beings)”

“Materialist theories fail to elucidate how brain could generate the mind…”

Post-materialism Paradigmhttp://opensciences.org/about/manifesto-for-a-post-materialist-science

a) Mind represents an aspect of reality as primordial as the physical world.

b) There is a deep interconnectedness between mind and the physical world.

c) Mind (will/intention) can influence the state of the physical world

d) Minds (…) may unite in ways suggesting a unitary, One Mind that includes all individual, single minds

e) The mind can work through the brain, but is not produced by it

f) (…)

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People and relationships

“We found that this new science leads to a

new theory of business that places people

and relationships […] into dramatic relief.”

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Roger Lewin, Birute Regine

„Draussen, jenseits der

Vorstellungen von Fehlverhalten

und Wohlverhalten, liegt ein Feld.

Dort werd‘ ich mit dir

zusammentreffen.

Wenn die Seele sich in jenes

Grasland niederlegt, ist die Welt zu

sehr erfüllt, um darüber zu reden.

Vorstellungen, Sprache, selbst der

Ausdruck „der Andere“ ergeben

keinerlei Sinn mehr.„

Rumi

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