Weltweite Entwicklung der Kernenergie

Weltweite Entwicklung der Kernenergie Dr. Stefan Nießen Vice President Research, Innovation and Patent Management AREVA GmbH

Dresden, Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 16. Oktober, 2013

Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 2013 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - © AREVA

All rights are reserved, see liability notice.

Fundamentale Entwicklungen unverändert

Geopolitics Resources Environment

Limitation of fossilresources

20501990 2010 2030

BarilsGHG emissions cut

by half by 2050

20501990 2010 2030

BUSINESS AS USUAL

450ppm SCENARIO

tCO2

GHG emissions: goal = 50% reduction by 2050

Energy independence and security of supply

0

25

50

75

100

$2011/barrel of oil

1990 1970

Economics Macroeconomics

Energy demand:

x 2 by 2050

Energy demand multiplied by 2

by 2050

20501990 2010 2030

BUSINESS AS USUAL

tep

20501990 2010 2030

BUSINESS AS USUAL

tep

2010 0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

+70% +60%

Reference case

+6%

Fuel price x2

CO2price x2

Nat. gas CCGT

Nuclear Coal

Source: IEA ETP: reference scenario 2010 - UNFCC, CERA 2009

Production in barrels of oil

**Average annual growth rate

World electricity demand**

Nuclear energy demand**

+ 1,7 % / year

+ 2.1 % / year

World primary energy demand** + 1.3 % / year

Ineluctable decline of fossile resources + pressure on

prices

Energy cost, stability, predictability

2011

WEO

20

09–

2035

«

New

Pol

icie

s »

Scen

ario


All rights are reserved, see liability notice. Jahrestagung Kerntechnik 2012 – Providing state-of-the-art nuclear technologies for new generation capacities– S. vom Scheidt – May 23, 2012 - p.3

0

150

300

450

600

2030 New builds

Life extensions

Plant closures

2010

583

304

159 (258)

378

GW

e On 27th July 2011 the IAEA Director–General Yukiya Amano said:

“Despite Fukushima Daiichi, global use of nuclear power will continue to grow in the coming decades and will remain an important option for many countries”

Die installierte Leistung wächst weltweit

AREVA's Nuclear Scenario Reassessed at end of June 2011


Market Overview – Reactors in Operation

Source: WNA, May 2012 433 reactors connected to the grid worldwide

2

2

8

2

2

1

2 2

15

33 10

16

58

9

20

15 23 50

17

1

1

3

4

5

4

6 7

104 4

UK

Belgium

France

Netherlands

Spain

Switzerland

Germany

Czech Rep.

Slovakia Ukraine

Russia Finland Sweden

Slovenia

Bulgaria

Armenia Hungary

Pakistan

India

China South Korea Japan

South Africa Argentina

Brazil

Mexico

USA

Canada

Romania 6 Taïwan

1 Iran


Market Overview – Reactors under construction

1

3

Argentina

Canada

1 USA

63 reactors under construction

10

1

7

26 3 3

2

2

1

France Slovakia

Russia Finland

Pakistan

India

China South Korea

Japan

2 Taiwan

First concrete for reactor poured or major refurbishment under way; Source: WNA, May 2012

1 Brazil


Market Overview – Reactors planned

162 reactors on order or planned

Approvals, funding or major commitment in place, mostly expected in operation within 8 years; Source: WNA, May 2012

2 2

2 1 2

2

3

11 6 10

2

16

51 4 1

1 2

4 4

1

1 2

17

2 4

2

6 1

China South Korea

Japan

Indonesia

Vietnam

Bangladesh India

Egypt

UAE Jordan

Argentina

USA

Canada

Ukraine

Russia

Bulgaria Turkey

Romania

Belarus

Iran

Kazakhstan

UK

Finland

Armenia

France Poland

Czech Republic

Lithuania

All rights are reserved, see liability notice. Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 2013 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - © AREVA

90 Prozent aller Kernkraftbetreiber sind Kunden von AREVA

AREVA macht Serviceleistungen für über 360 Reaktoren weltweit

~130 Reaktoren

126: Serviceleistungen 100: Kernbrennstoff

Nord- / Südamerika

~140 Reaktoren


Europa & Afrika

~90 Reaktoren


Asien

S. 7


Nuclear Power in Europe

Sweden

40 % Russia

18 %

United Kingdom

18 % Netherlands

4 %

Belgium

54 %

France

78 %

Spain

20 %

Switzerland

41 %

Slovenia

42 % Hungary

43 %

Bulgaria

33 %

Romania

19 %

Czech Rep.

33 %

Slovakia

54 %

Ukraine

47 %

Lithuania

0 %

4

185 NPP in operation

41 – 43 NPP planned

14 NPP under construction

share in power generation in %, 2011

33 10

16 1

7 9

15

2

2

4 1 5

58

8 1

4

1

10

Germany

18 %

6

Source: WNA, May 2012

2

2

1 1-2

1

1-2

17

1 2

1

2

4

Finland 32 %

1

Poland 0 %

6

Finland



Marktentwicklung Modernisierung weltweit

Kraftwerkstechnisches Kolloquium 2013 - AREVA GmbH Proprietary - © AREVA S. 9

Quelle: IAEA

gleichzeitig im Bau befindliche Kernkraftwerksleistung

im Jahr 1980

Nunmer of reactors under construction

0

50

100

150

200

250

1951

1952

1953

1954

1955

1956

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962

1963

1964

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

GW

(e)

Developing countries

Japan and S.Korea

E. Europe

W. Europe

North America

1980

20 Jahre

159GWe

Gleichzeitig im Bau befindliche Kernkraftwerksleistung 2020


Olkiluoto 3

►© AREVA



Elektromechanische Installationen im NI Batterien in den Sicherheitsgebäuden eingebaut

© AREVA

© AREVA


Kuppel der Flugzeugabsturzhülle


Reactor Cavity / Core Internals’ Storage

Leak-tightness test

►© AREVA



Turbinenhalle


July 2013: Dome lifting in Flamanville


Zusammenfassung

AREVA glaubt an die Zukunft der Kernenergie - die Fundamentaldaten haben sich nicht geändert Neubauprogramme sind praktisch unbeeinflusst durch Fukushima, jedoch sind einige verzögert. Die meisten Länder und selbst in Europa an Deutschlands Grenzen halten an ihren Nuklearprogrammen fest. Die EPRTM -Projekte profitieren weltweit vom Erfahrungsrückfluss bei Lizensierung in fünf Ländern, Bau sowie Projektleitung in vier laufenden Projekten

AREVA bietet verlässlich Kerntechnik nach Stand von Wissenschaft und Technik weltweit

Das EPRTM Design erfüllt sämtliche Anforderungen nach Fukushima


[Editor and Copyright, 2012]: AREVA NP GmbH – Paul-Gossen-Straße 100 – 91052 Erlangen, Germany. It is forbidden to reproduce the present publication in its entirety or partially in whatever form without prior written consent. Legal action may be taken against any infringer and/or any person breaching the aforementioned conditions. Subject to change and error without notice. Illustrations may differ from the original. The statements and information contained in this brochure are for advertising purpose only and do not constitute an offer of contract. They shall neither be construed as a guarantee of quality or durability, nor as warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. These statements, even if they are future-oriented, are based on information that was available to us at the date of publication. Type, quantity and characteristics of goods and services are subject to formal individual contracts.

Weltweite Entwicklung der Kernenergie

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