Distributed inventory:Distributed inventory:analysis of uncertainty sources. analysis of uncertainty sources.

Ukraine case studyUkraine case study

R.R.BunBun, L., L.KujiiKujii, O., O.TokarTokar, , YaYa..TsybrivskyyTsybrivskyyState S&R Institute of Information Infrastructure, State S&R Institute of Information Infrastructure,

National Academy of Science of UkraineNational Academy of Science of UkraineLvivLviv,, UkraineUkraine

Main idea:Main idea:

Distributed inventoryDistributed inventory�

uncertainty estimationuncertainty estimation�

uncertainty decreasinguncertainty decreasing

Illustrations:Illustrations:

on the basis of IPCC Methodology on the basis of IPCC Methodology

Traditional inventoryTraditional inventory

� Inventory �

�Emissionvalue

E �++++ tyUniversali ? small-Large−−−−

Large or small country ?Large or small country ?

PolandUkraine S2S ⋅⋅⋅⋅≈≈≈≈

Ukraine2km 603,000

AustriaUkraine S5,7S ⋅⋅⋅⋅≈≈≈≈

25regions

650≈≈≈≈districts

Irregularity of industry locationIrregularity of industry location

Irregularity of emissions of harmful substances into the atmosphere per km2

1,7 67,7

Irregularity of forest fund andwood production

NonNon--uniform distributionuniform distributionGHGGHG sinkssinks emission sourcesemission sources

inventory dDistribute����

makers decisionfor tool Effective ����

Distributed inventory levels:Distributed inventory levels:

�� The highest inventory levelThe highest inventory level ——for the whole Ukrainefor the whole Ukraine

�� Middle inventory levelMiddle inventory level ——for separate regions/districtsfor separate regions/districts

�� The lowest inventory level The lowest inventory level ——for efor elementary plotslementary plots

The highest inventory levelThe highest inventory level ——for the whole Ukrainefor the whole Ukraine

Output data Model Input data (from database)

�,CH,COE 42==== )X(fE ====⇐⇐⇐⇐ �;industry;energyX ====⇐⇐⇐⇐

Traditional inventoryTraditional inventory

Middle inventory levelMiddle inventory level ——for separate region/for separate region/oblastoblast

Output data Model Input data (from database)

�,CH,COE 42region ==== )X(fE regionregion ====⇐⇐⇐⇐ �;industry;energyX ====⇐⇐⇐⇐

NonNon--traditional inventorytraditional inventory

The lowest inventory levelThe lowest inventory level

� �� �

� �� �

Elementary plot Elementary plot ——

Output data Model Input data (from database)

�,4CH,COE 2.el ====∆∆∆∆ )X(fE .el.el ∆∆∆∆====∆∆∆∆⇐⇐⇐⇐ �;industry;energyX .el ====∆∆∆∆⇐⇐⇐⇐

Distributed inventoryDistributed inventory

Relation between distributed and lumped models Relation between distributed and lumped models –– summing on all summing on all elementary plots yields result of traditional inventoryelementary plots yields result of traditional inventory

Technology of distributed inventoryTechnology of distributed inventoryData of statistics,mathematical models,calculation results andprognosis with the use ofneural networks methods

Vegetation

Relief

Population

MapInfo Professional 6.5

Waste, …

Agriculture,forestry, …

Industry(cement, …)

Energy(combustion, …)

IPCC Software(Ex�el)

Inventory by IPCCmethodology

By

sect

ors o

f IPC

C m

etho

dolo

gy

Organizinginput databasefor region,Ukraine

CH4

CO2

By

gree

nhou

se g

ases

Reflection on thedigital map (newlayers production)

New layersproduction

Total value in��2 equivalent

�

Digital map

Structural scheme of softwareStructural scheme of software GISGIS “GHG”“GHG”

Statistical data

Statistical data

Statistical data Energy

Industrial processes Agriculture

Land-use change and forestry Waste

MapInfo New layers generation for digital map of GIS “GHG”

Result

Other methodology, which take into account time dependences,

prognosis and models

���� methodology Sectoral reports

Prognosis under lack of data

ModuleGHGMap

ModuleGHGInvent

GIS “GHG”

InterrelationsInterrelations betweenbetween tablestables ofof thethedatabasedatabase GHGInvNNNNGHGInvNNNN..mdbmdb

Digital map of UkraineDigital map of Ukraine

Spatial database of Ukraine of scale 1:500 000

Major segments of the electronic mapMajor segments of the electronic map

�� Vegetation and soils Vegetation and soils �� Land reliefLand relief�� Settlements (inhabited localities) Settlements (inhabited localities) �� HydrographyHydrography and and hydroengineeringhydroengineering

constructionsconstructions�� Road network and constructionsRoad network and constructions�� Bounds, enclosures and separate natural Bounds, enclosures and separate natural

phenomenaphenomena

Experimental measurements:Experimental measurements:

As a physical map ...As a physical map ...

Distributed inventory resultsDistributed inventory resultsEnergy sector:Energy sector:

COCO2 2 emissions from stationary combustion (2000)emissions from stationary combustion (2000)

Distributed inventory resultsDistributed inventory resultsEnergy sector:Energy sector:

Mobile combustion Mobile combustion -- road vehicles, district level (2000)road vehicles, district level (2000)

Distributed inventory resultsDistributed inventory resultsAgriculture sector:Agriculture sector:

CHCH44 emissions from manure management (1990)emissions from manure management (1990)

Distributed inventory resultsDistributed inventory resultsForestry:Forestry:

Carbon sink into forest phytomass,, district leveldistrict level (1996)(1996)

Positive features of Positive features of approachapproach�� Convenient Convenient information for decision makers in a information for decision makers in a

countrycountry�� Efficiency for large area countries with highly Efficiency for large area countries with highly

nonnon--uniform location of GHG sources and uniform location of GHG sources and absorbersabsorbers

�� Transparency of inventory process on different Transparency of inventory process on different scales and convenience of reportingscales and convenience of reporting

�� Possibility of effective usage of remote sensing Possibility of effective usage of remote sensing datadata

�� Convenience of comparison with another resultsConvenience of comparison with another results�� combination of combination of geoinformationgeoinformation technologies and technologies and

IPCC methodologiesIPCC methodologies

Distributed inventoryDistributed inventoryandand

Uncertainty ???Uncertainty ???

Example :Example :

Energy sector, regional levelEnergy sector, regional level

Energy sector structureEnergy sector structureRegional levelRegional level

Regi-ons

Kinds of human activity

GHGs

IPCC: Good Practice Guidance and IPCC: Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Uncertainty Management in National Management in National

Greenhouse Gas InventoriesGreenhouse Gas InventoriesEnergy sectorEnergy sector

??? Leaders

Regi-ons

Kinds of human activity

GHGs

Regi-ons

GHGs

Regi-ons

Kinds of human activity

GHGs

Emissions iesuncertaint Relative

iesuncertaint Absolute

� �

�

Map of uncertaintiesMap of uncertaintiesCOCO2 2 emissions from stationary combustionemissions from stationary combustion

An influence of regional absolute uncertainty on country uncertaAn influence of regional absolute uncertainty on country uncertaintyinty

Leaders:Leaders:Absolute uncertainty COAbsolute uncertainty CO2 2 emissions from stationary combustionemissions from stationary combustion

1. 1. DonetskDonetsk region region -- 28,3 % 28,3 % 2. 2. DnipropetrovskDnipropetrovsk region region -- 15,1 % 15,1 % 3. 3. LuganskLugansk region region -- 9,6 % 9,6 %

----------------------------------� = 53,0 %� = 53,0 %

of all Ukraine GHG emissionof all Ukraine GHG emission

Numerical experimentNumerical experiment Ukraine

���� statistics Bad""

yUncertaint)sector (Energy

% 7,40U ====

Ukraine

����

Leaders

���� statistics Good""

���� Ukraine

% ,026U ====)sector (Energy yUncertaint Ukraine

% 1,38U ====∆∆∆∆

statistics Bad""

Summary of approachSummary of approach

Distributed inventory�

Leading region and leading activity�

Small investment for leaders�

Uncertainty decreasing

Thanks for your Thanks for your attention!attention!