Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Weather forecasts and

crisis management

Michael Staudinger

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Weather forecasts and

crisis management

Michael Staudinger

Is this a crisis I see before me?

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Floods

Precipitation, snow line, ground moisture, probabilities . . . . source: BH Landeck

Warning situations – necessary Informations

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Avalanches

snowfall, rain, temperature, wind. . . .

Warning situations – necessary Informations

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Warning situations – necessary Informations

Wind storm

Speed, direction, impact, preconditions, behaviour . . .

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Warning situations

Predictability

Space - time correlation (ECMWF)

A warning system has to be based on the predictability of the different phenomena

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Structure of ZAMG forecasts

Early warning (5 days)

• Global models (ECMWF, NCEP . . .)• Probabilistic forecasts(EPS)• Climatology• Extreme value statistic

Today, tomorrow

• Regional models (ALARO, AROME)• Probabilistic forecasts (EPS)• Satellite images

Nowcasting (120 min)

• Radar • Satellite imagea• In-situ Measurement• Regional Models (ALARO, AROME)• INCA

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

ZAMG Vorhersagen 5 Tage

Early warnings (5 days)

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

ZAMG Vorhersagen 72h

3 days22. Juni 2009 – 72h forecast

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

ZAMG forecasts 72h

3 days22. Juni 2009 – 72h forecast

22. Juni 2009 - Analysis

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

ZAMG Vorhersagen 48h

ALARO (5 km) without data assimilation

Today, tomorrow

Precipitation Analysis

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

ZAMG forecasts 48h

Today, tomorrow

Precipitation Analysis

AROME 2,5 km with data assimilation

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

ZAMG forecasts – Nowcasting 6h

INCA

RADAR

SATELLITS

TOPOGRAPHY

OBSERVATIONS

ALARO5limited area model

ECMWF, Reading

ECMWFglobal model

Météo France, Toulouse

ARPEGEglobal model

HYDROLOGY WARNINGS PRODUCTS

→ Analyses→ Nowcasts→ Forecasts

Y. Wang

A. Kann

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

ZAMG forecasts– Nowcasting 6h

Hight dependency of precipitation, derived from climatological stations

without with

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

ZAMG Vorhersagen – Nowcasting 6h

weight

1

+06 h +72 h0

Forecast time range

+67 h+02 h0h-15 min

ALADIN ECMWF

Analyse

Nowcasting

INCA Model weight

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Radar

Nowcasting with traffic regulation

Radar + INCA data

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Nowcasting with traffic regulation

Radar Radar + INCA data

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

SKKM – From science to the user

Flow of information - cooperationsuser:

mayorCompanies,Individuals

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

SKKM – From science to the user

Flow of information - cooperations

Media

Warningauthorit

y

ZAMG Weather users:

• Local responsibles• Mayors• Companies,• Individuals (Apps etc.)

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

ZAMG forecasts

A. Schaffhauser

K. Stadlbacher

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Standardised European Warnings

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Infrastructure of forecasts

forecasting Media, public

EM

I - E

urop

en M

eteo

rolo

gica

l Inf

rast

ruct

ure

LAM, in situ data, …

forecasting

Civil Protection

Media, public

Media, public

Civil Protection

forecasting

Civil Protection regio

Media, public

Media, public

Civil Protection regio Media, public

Civil Protection regio Media, public

LAM, in situ data, …

LAM, in situ data, …

Media, public

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Warnings and competition

POD 1xxxx

xxx

(now)

(future)

xxxx xxx

FAR

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Warnings and competition

POD 1xxxx

xxx

(now)

(future)

xxxx xxx

FAR

XXXXXX

(competing players)

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Conrad Observatory

145 m Tunnel

Eingang 1.044 m

3 Boreholes100 m deep

1 Borehole50 m deep

Gravity Meter

Borehole Sensors

SeismometerSeismometer

SeismometerSeismometer

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Conrad Observatory

145 m Tunnel

Eingang 1.044 m

3 Boreholes100 m deep

1 Borehole50 m deep

Gravity Meter

Borehole Sensors

SeismometerSeismometer

SeismometerSeismometer

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather

Folgen eines koronalen Massenauswurf:Horizontalkomponente H und Aktivitätsindex K bei magnetischen Sturm

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather

Folgen eines koronalen Massenauswurf:Horizontalkomponente H und Aktivitätsindex K bei magnetischen Sturm

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Necessary future cooperations

Weather service and:

More data providers:

other services, private companies, cross boarder data exchange (radar)

Universities, research institutions :

development of methods (modelling, impacts, climate modelling …

Operational services:

„Multihazard Services“ (Hydro, health services, Red cross . . . .)

Framework: National ISDR, GEO, GCOS platforms

open data policies