Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Zentralanstalt fürMeteorologie undGeodynamik

Weather forecasts and

crisis management

Michael Staudinger


Weather forecasts and

crisis management

Michael Staudinger

Is this a crisis I see before me?


Floods

Precipitation, snow line, ground moisture, probabilities . . . . source: BH Landeck

Warning situations – necessary Informations


Avalanches

snowfall, rain, temperature, wind. . . .




Wind storm

Speed, direction, impact, preconditions, behaviour . . .


Warning situations

Predictability

Space - time correlation (ECMWF)

A warning system has to be based on the predictability of the different phenomena


Structure of ZAMG forecasts

Early warning (5 days)

• Global models (ECMWF, NCEP . . .)• Probabilistic forecasts(EPS)• Climatology• Extreme value statistic

Today, tomorrow

• Regional models (ALARO, AROME)• Probabilistic forecasts (EPS)• Satellite images

Nowcasting (120 min)

• Radar • Satellite imagea• In-situ Measurement• Regional Models (ALARO, AROME)• INCA


ZAMG Vorhersagen 5 Tage

Early warnings (5 days)


ZAMG Vorhersagen 72h

3 days22. Juni 2009 – 72h forecast


ZAMG forecasts 72h

3 days22. Juni 2009 – 72h forecast

22. Juni 2009 - Analysis


ZAMG Vorhersagen 48h

ALARO (5 km) without data assimilation

Today, tomorrow

Precipitation Analysis


ZAMG forecasts 48h

Today, tomorrow

Precipitation Analysis

AROME 2,5 km with data assimilation


ZAMG forecasts – Nowcasting 6h

INCA

RADAR

SATELLITS

TOPOGRAPHY

OBSERVATIONS

ALARO5limited area model

ECMWF, Reading

ECMWFglobal model

Météo France, Toulouse

ARPEGEglobal model

HYDROLOGY WARNINGS PRODUCTS

→ Analyses→ Nowcasts→ Forecasts

Y. Wang

A. Kann


ZAMG forecasts– Nowcasting 6h

Hight dependency of precipitation, derived from climatological stations

without with


ZAMG Vorhersagen – Nowcasting 6h

weight

1

+06 h +72 h0

Forecast time range

+67 h+02 h0h-15 min

ALADIN ECMWF

Analyse

Nowcasting

INCA Model weight


Radar

Nowcasting with traffic regulation

Radar + INCA data


Nowcasting with traffic regulation

Radar Radar + INCA data


SKKM – From science to the user

Flow of information - cooperationsuser:

mayorCompanies,Individuals


SKKM – From science to the user

Flow of information - cooperations

Media

Warningauthorit

y

ZAMG Weather users:

• Local responsibles• Mayors• Companies,• Individuals (Apps etc.)


ZAMG forecasts

A. Schaffhauser

K. Stadlbacher


Standardised European Warnings


Infrastructure of forecasts

forecasting Media, public

EM

I - E

urop

en M

eteo

rolo

gica

l Inf

rast

ruct

ure

LAM, in situ data, …

forecasting

Civil Protection

Media, public

Media, public

Civil Protection

forecasting

Civil Protection regio

Media, public

Media, public

Civil Protection regio Media, public

Civil Protection regio Media, public



Media, public


Warnings and competition

POD 1xxxx

xxx

(now)

(future)

xxxx xxx

FAR


Warnings and competition

POD 1xxxx

xxx

(now)

(future)

xxxx xxx

FAR

XXXXXX

(competing players)


Conrad Observatory

145 m Tunnel

Eingang 1.044 m

3 Boreholes100 m deep

1 Borehole50 m deep

Gravity Meter

Borehole Sensors

SeismometerSeismometer

SeismometerSeismometer


Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather


Conrad Observatorium – Space Weather

Folgen eines koronalen Massenauswurf:Horizontalkomponente H und Aktivitätsindex K bei magnetischen Sturm


Necessary future cooperations

Weather service and:

More data providers:

other services, private companies, cross boarder data exchange (radar)

Universities, research institutions :

development of methods (modelling, impacts, climate modelling …

Operational services:

„Multihazard Services“ (Hydro, health services, Red cross . . . .)

Framework: National ISDR, GEO, GCOS platforms

open data policies

Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik

Documents

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