1

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

o

2

1300

1500

1700

1900

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

SampP 500

250

270

290

310

330

Nov-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

Nov-1

3

STOXX 600

600

800

1000

1200

1400

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

ATHENS GEN INDEX

830

910

990

1070

1150

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

MSCI

L-T ccy Moodys SampP Fitch

SERBIA B1 BB- BB-

ROMANIA Baa3 BB+ BBB-

BULGARIA Baa2 BBB BBB-

CYPRUS Caa3 B- B-

Credit Ratings

2

1300

1500

1700

1900

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

SampP 500

250

270

290

310

330

Nov-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

Nov-1

3

STOXX 600

600

800

1000

1200

1400

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

No

v-1

3

ATHENS GEN INDEX

830

910

990

1070

1150

No

v-1

2

Jan

-13

Ma

r-1

3

Ma

y-1

3

Jul-

13

Se

p-1

3

MSCI

L-T ccy Moodys SampP Fitch

SERBIA B1 BB- BB-

ROMANIA Baa3 BB+ BBB-

BULGARIA Baa2 BBB BBB-

CYPRUS Caa3 B- B-

Credit Ratings

3

SERBIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f

Real GDP growth -17 20 10

CPI (pa yoy ) 73 84 55

Budget BalanceGDP -64 -56 -55

Current AccountGDP -105 -60 -45

EURRSD (eop) 11230 11534 12300

current 2013f 2014f

Policy Rate (eop) 1000 1000 950

Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg

Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities

ROMANIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f

Real GDP growth 07 22 22

CPI (pa yoy ) 50 18 30

Budget BalanceGDP -30 -25 -22

Current AccountGDP -40 -12 -15

EURRON (eop) 444 443 445

current 2013f 2014f

Policy Rate (eop) 400 400 400

Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg

Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities

BULGARIA Indicators 2012 2013f 2014f

Real GDP growth 08 05 15

HICP (pa yoy ) 24 05 14

Budget BalanceGDP -08 -20 -20

Current AccountGDP -13 03 00

EURBGN (eop)

current 2013f 2014f

Policy Rate (eop) NA NA NA

Source EC Economic Forecasts Reuters Bloomberg

Eurobank Global Markets Research local authorities

195583

4

Government Bonds Commodities

Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔD ΔYTD

SampP 500 181237 03 271 EURUSD 13615 01 32 UST - 10yr 275 1 99 GOLD 1255 08 -251

Nikkei 225 1566187 -04 507 GBPUSD 16345 00 06 Bund-10yr 169 0 38 BRENT CRUDE 168 00 VALUE

STOXX 600 32569 02 165 USDJPY 10232 00 -152 JGB - 10yr 061 0 -19 LMEX 3020 00 -126

GLOBAL MARKETSStock markets FOREX

BELIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps ROBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps SOFIBOR Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps

TN 857 -3 -129 ON 178 6 -452 LEONIA 001 0 -3

1-week 878 -3 -167 1-month 194 2 -410 1-month 031 1 -10

1-month 907 -1 -203 3-month 27 2 -335 3-month 065 0 -28

3-month 930 0 -245 6-month 318 1 -309 6-month 116 0 -52

6-month 958 -2 -263 12-month 336 1 -294 12-month 224 -1 -80

Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps (yields) Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps

3Y RSD 1123 -3 -70 3Y RON 406 0 -204 3Y BGN 115 -2 -2

5Y RSD 1286 -4 242 5Y RON 468 0 -142 5Y BGN 192 -2 27

7Y RSD 1379 7 104 10Y RON 526 0 -99 10Y BGN 351 0 16

Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps

USD Nov-17 521 0 90 EUR Sep-20 398 -5 -69 USD Jan-15 068 -1 -57

USD Nov-24 692 -1 652 USD Aug-23 483 1 42 EUR Jul-17 192 -2 -15

Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps Last ΔDbps ΔYTD bps

5-year 422 2 73 5-year 179 0 -36 5-year 126 0 27

10-year 471 1 74 10-year 245 10 -7 10-year 172 NA NA 39

Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD

BELEX15 5416 013 338 BET 63351 094 2302 SOFIX 4685 110 3561

Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD Last ΔD ΔYTD

EURRSD 1141 -009 -127 EURRON 44337 004 023 USDBGN 14366 007 314

STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS

BULGARIA

Money Market Money Market Money Market

SEE MARKETSSERBIA ROMANIA

RS Local Bonds RO Local Bonds BG Local Bonds

RS Eurobonds RO Eurobonds BG Eurobonds

FOREX FOREX FOREX

CDS CDS CDS

400

450

500

550

600

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct-

13

BELEX15 Index

4000

5000

6000

7000

Nov-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Ma

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Nov-1

3

BET Index

300

350

400

450

500

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct-

13

SOFIX Index

108

110

112

114

116

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct-

13

EURRSD

425

435

445

455

465

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct-

13

EURRON

135

140

145

150

155

Nov-1

2

Dec-1

2

Ja

n-1

3

Fe

b-1

3

Ma

r-13

Ap

r-13

Ma

y-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Ju

l-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Se

p-1

3

Oct-

13

USDBGN

5

5