30 Jahre Tschernobyl und 5 Jahre Fukushima - fme.ch · 30 Jahre Tschernobyl und 5 Jahre Fukushima...

30 Jahre Tschernobyl und 5 Jahre Fukushima

Ein Blick auf die gesundheitlichen Folgen

Hansruedi Völkle, Universität Freiburg FME-GV, 12. Mai 2016, Aarau

Tschernobyl: Ursachen - Schlechtes Design: Graphit, pos. Void-Coeff., kein Contaniment, … - Menschliches Fehlverhalten: gefährliches Experiment, Koordination - Ignoranz der Behörden : Information, Evakuierung, Massnahmen, - Zusammenbruch der SU (ev. durch Tschernobyl noch beschleunigt !)

Fukushima: Ursachen - Tsunami-Schutz ungenügend; Gebäude nicht wasserdicht - Behördenstruktur zu komplex und zu schwerfällig, «Copinage» - Keine Inspektionen (durch IAEA) und kein Nachrüsten - Mehrfachbarrieren und Diversivikation ungenügend berücksichtigt - Keine H2-Rekombination und kein «Venting» (wie bei uns) - Notfallschutz ungenügend - Sicherheitskultur ungenügend (durch Regierung festgestellt!)

H. Völkle: Radioactivity and Radiation Fall Term 08: Chernobyl

Page 1 from 32 (Version from 05.11.2008)

The Chernobyl Catastrophe (Ukraine) from April 26th 1986

Chap. 8b 1 from 30

H. Völkle HS15

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bild:Ukraine_Tschornobyl_im_Oblast_Kiew.png



RBMW reactor design vs. Western Type Reactors

Chap. 8b 11 from 30

H. Völkle HS15

Contribution of radionuclides to the absorbed dose rate in air in a contaminated area of the Russian Federation during the first several months after the Chernobyl accident

Source: UNSCEAR 2000, Annexes – Vol. II.



Deposition 131I in Belarus & Russian Federation (from UNSCEAR)

Chap. 8b 15 from 30

H. Völkle HS15

Reconstruction of 131I radioactive contamination in Ukraine caused by the Chernobyl accident using atmospheric transport modelling, Nikolai Talerko, Scientific Center for Radiation Medicine, 53 Melnikov Street, Kyiv 04050, Ukraine,

(Source: Journal of Environmental Radioactivity 84 (2005) 343 to 362)

Chap. 8b 16 from 30

H. Völkle HS15



Infant Thyroid Cancer Incidence (Source: IPSN/GRS et al)

0

5

10

15

20

1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998

Belarus Gomel Bryansk Ukraine

Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Children unter 15 YNumer of cases per 105 Children

Chap. 8b 17 from 30

H. Völkle HS15

Radiological Consequences of the Chernobyl Reactor Accident: Thyroid Cancer in children

Thyroid cancer Incidence in children and adolescents from Belarus after the Chernobyl accident. Source: DEMIDCHIK YE, DEMIDCHIK E.P., SAENKO V.A., et al, 2007 Childhood thyroid cancer in Belarus. International Congress Series 1299: 32-38, and CARDIS E., HOWE G., RON E., et al, 2006 Cancer consequences of the Chernobyl accident: 20 years on. J Radiol Prot 26: 127-140.



Deposition of 137Cs in the Chernobyl region (from: UNSCEAR)

Chap. 8b 18 from 30

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Deposition of 137Cs in Europe (From: Atlas 137Cs de la CE; EUR 16733)

Chap. 8b 19 from 30

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Deposition of 90Sr (left) and 239Pu (right) (Source: IPSN/GRS et al)


Chap. 8b 20 from 30

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Table 1: Distribution of levels of radiation dose among populations exposed as a result of the Chernobyl accident (Dose estimates from ILYIN et al, J. Radiol. Prot. 10 (1990) p.3-29).

Source: ELISABETH CARDIS & ALEXEY E. OKEANOV, http://www.iaea.org/inis/collection/NCLCollectionStore/_Public/31/056/31056936.pdf.

1) SCZ = Strict Control Zones, defined as areas with 137Cs contamination above 40 Ci/km2 = 1500 kBq/m2. 2) CEDE = committed effective dose equivalent

The so called «Liquidators»: - Some 600 «Emergency Workers» in the first days, 134 of them with symptoms of acute radiation sickness: 0.8 – 16 Gy, 23 of them

died of bone marrow failure (1 of 50 with 2.2 - 4.1 Sv, 7 of 22 with 4.2 - 6.4 Sv, 20 of 21 with 6.5 - 16 Sv). - And ≈ 600’000 «Liquidators» (2/3 of them were between 30-40 year old), average effective dose: 15 – 170 Sv, individual < 10 …

>500 mSv (1986-1987); exposure to the thyroid < 0.15 … 3 Gy (226’000 of them involved in recovery operation work in the 30 km zone surrounding the reactor). Leukemia among Russian Liquidators 1986-1991: 6x more CML than before 1986 but also 3x more CLL than before 1986 ???

Source: V. SAENKO et al, Clinical Oncology 23 (2011), pp.234-243.

Other Healt effects (according to the WHO-Report on Chernobyl of 2006)

Population (years exposed)

Number Average total in 20 years (mSv)1

Liquidators (1986–1987)

(high exposed) 240’000 > 100

Evacuees (1986) 116’000 > 33

Residents SCZs (> 555 kBq/m2)(1986–2005) 270’000 > 50

Residents low contaminated territories (37 kBq/m2) (1986–2005) 5’000’000 10 – 20

Natural background

2.4 mSv/year (typical range

1–10, Max. > 20)

48

SCZ = strict control zones



The Cancer Burden from Chernobyl in Europe

Briefing Document (April 2006)

by E. Cardis et al. International Agency for Research in Cancer (IARC) and World Health Organisation (WHO)

Estimation of the number of cancer, cancer

death for all Europe4) (570 Mio.) until 2065

(80 year)

Mean

value

95 %

Confidence

Interval

Number of thyroid cancers 16'000 (1) 3'400 - 72’000

Number of other cancers 25'000 (2) 11'000 - 59’000

Number of cancer death 16'000 (3) 6'700 - 38’000

Legend: for Belarus, Ukraine and the most affected regions of the Russian Federation : (1) ≈ 2/3 ; (2) ≈ 50 % ; (3) ≈ 9000 4) Estimation for all Europe until 2006: number of thyroid cancer: 1000 cases (95 % : 200 - 4400), number of other cancers 4000 cases (95 % : 1700 - 10'000)

Chap. 8b 21 from 30

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Other Health effects (according tot he WHO-Report on Chernobyl of 2006) (1) Diseases WHO-Comment (April 2006) Thyroid can-cer

Belarus, the Russian Federation & Ukraine nearly 5 000 cases of thyroid cancer have been diagnosed to date among children who were aged up to 18 years at the time of the accident. Fortunately, even in children with advanced tumors, treatment has been highly effective and the general prognosis for young patients is good.

Leukemia and non-thyroid solid cancer

Recent investigations suggest a doubling of the incidence of leukemia among the most highly exposed Chernobyl liquidators. No such increase has been clearly demonstrated among children or adults resident in any of the contaminated areas. While scientists have conducted studies to determine whether cancers in many other organs may have been caused by radiation, reviews by the WHO Ex-pert Group revealed no evidence of increased cancer risks, apart from thyroid cancer, that can clearly be attributed to radiation from Chernobyl. Aside from the recent finding on leukemia risk among Chernobyl liquidators, reports indicate a small increase in the incidence of pre-menopausal breast cancer in the most con-taminated areas, which appear to be related to radiation dose. Both of these findings, however, need confirmation in well-designed epidemiological studies.

Other Health effects (according tot he WHO-Report on Chernobyl of 2006) (2)

Mortality 1) According to UNSCEAR (2000), 134 liquidators received radiation doses high enough to be diagnosed with acute radiation sickness (ARS). Among them, 28 persons died in 1986 due to ARS. Other liquidators have since died but their deaths could not necessarily be attributed to radiation exposure. 2) The Expert Group concluded that there may be up to 4 000 additional cancer deaths among the three highest exposed groups over their lifetime (i.e. 240’000 liquidators; 116’000 evacuees and the 270’000 residents of the SCZs, total: 626’000). Since more than 120’000 people in these three groups may eventually die of cancer, the additional cancer deaths from radiation exposure correspond to 3-4% above the normal incidence of cancers from all causes. 3) Projections concerning cancer deaths among the five million residents of areas with radioactive cesium deposition of 37 kBq/m2 in Belarus, the Russian Federation and Ukraine are much less certain because they are exposed to doses slightly above natural background radiation levels. Predictions, generally based on the LNT model, suggest that up to 5’000 additional cancer deaths may occur in this population from radiation exposure, or about 0.6% of the cancer deaths expected in this population due to other causes. Again, these numbers only provide an indication of the likely impact of the accident because of the important uncertainties listed above.


Cataracts The lens of the eye is very sensitive to ionizing radiation and cataracts are known to result from effective doses of about 2 Sv. The production of cataracts is directly related to the dose. The higher the dose the faster the cataract appears. Chernobyl cataract studies suggest that radiation opacities may occur from doses as low as 250 mSv. Recent studies among other populations exposed to ionizing radiation (e.g. atomic bomb survivors, astronauts, patients who received CT-scans to the head) support this finding.

Cardiovascular disease

A large Russian study among emergency workers has suggested an increased risk of death from cardiovascular disease in highly exposed individuals. While this finding needs further study with longer follow-up times, it is consistent with other studies, for example, on radiotherapy patients, who received considerably higher doses to the heart.


Mental health and psychological effects

The accident has had a serious impact on mental health and well-being in the general population, mainly at a sub-clinical level that has not generally resulted in medically diagnosed disorders. Designation of the affected population as «Vic-tims» rather than «Survivors» has led to feelings of helplessness and lack of con-trol over their future. This has resulted in excessive health concerns or reckless behavior, such as the overuse of alcohol and tobacco, or the consumption of mushrooms, berries and game from areas still designated as having high levels of radioactive cesium.

Reproductive and heredi-tary effects and chil-dren's health

Given the low radiation doses received by most people exposed to the Chernobyl accident, no effects on fertility, numbers of stillbirths, adverse pregnancy out-comes or delivery complications have been demonstrated nor are there ex-pected to be any. A modest but steady increase in reported congenital malfor-mations in both contaminated and uncontaminated areas of Belarus appears related to improved reporting and not to radiation exposure.


PTSD More investigations are necessary on effects like PTSD: consequences of evacuation, resettlement, lack of individual control, social disruption of life, stress, worry, anxiety, apathy, fatalism, etc.: i.e. increased of stress hormones, immune system depression, Down’s Syndrome, increase stillbirth, tuberculosis, heart disease, anemia, AIDS, abortion, suicide and changes in lifestyle patterns (tobacco, alcohol & substance abuse). Unfortunately no or only poor data are available so far and no epidemio-logical or mathematical models do exist. Conclusions: Non-radiological consequences (for Chernobyl and for Fuku-shima), i.e. on mental health have been widely underestimates.



137Cs Deposition [kBq/m2] in Switzerland after Chernobyl (Source: SFOPH)

Chap. 8b 22 from 30

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Evolution of the ambient dose equivalent [nSv/h] (nano = 10-9) in Caslano (Ticino), calculated from in situ measurements (Source: SFOPH)

Natural contribution (grey) and artificial contribution (blue: Chernobyl and nuclear weapon test fallout from the fifties and sixties) are represented in different colors.

Chap. 8b 25 from 30

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Average additional doses [mSv] of the Swiss population in the 1st year after the Chernobyl accident, calculated for different regions of the country (Source: SFOPH)

In brackets percentages of the population in each region

Chap. 8b 26 from 30

H. Völkle HS15



Doses [mSv] for the most exposed population groups in the 1st year of the Chernobyl accident (Source: SFOPH)

Calculated for different age classes. (The recommendations would have reduced the thyroid doses of infants by about 0.8 mSv).

Chap. 8b 27 from 30

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Average additional doses [mSv] of the Swiss population from the Chernobyl accident in the years 1986 and following (Source: SFOPH)

(Source: SFOPH)

Chap. 8b 28 from 30

H. Völkle HS15

destroyed Not destroyed

BWR in operation PWR in operation other nucl. installations

The greatest Tsunamis in Japan: height of the wave [m]

Earthquakes in Japan with magnitude ≥ 6 (of the 20th century)

Chap. 9g 15

H. Völkle HS14

Chap. 9g 17

H. Völkle HS14

Chap. 9g 19

H. Völkle HS14

What happened at the 4 nuclear

reactors of Fukushima-Dai-ichi

Hydrogen explosion

Core melt down Reactor number 4 was in a shut down mode. All fuel elements had

been transferred to the fuel element storage

pool.

Le reacteur no. 4

était vide.

Reactor 1 Reactor 2

Reactor 3 Reactor 4

4

3

2 1

Fukushima-Dai-ichi (reactors 1 – 4) after the Tsunami Wave

Cumulated deposition of 134Cs and 137Cs [Bq/m2]

Deposition of

134Cs + 137Cs [Bq/m2] 6‘000‘000 – 30‘000‘000

3‘000‘000 – 6‘000‘000

1‘000‘000 – 3‘000‘000

600‘000 – 1‘000‘000

300‘000 – 600‘000

City of Fukushima

Source: UNSCEAR 2013

Deposition of 137Cs in the districts of the Fukushima prefecture and some neighboring districts


Deposition of 137Cs onto the ground form the air (measured by: MEXT/Japon)

Mext = Ministery of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology

http://www.mext.go.jp/english/topics/1352658.htm




Average effective doses by districts for inhabitants of the Fukushima prefecture In the first year after the accident

(for the on evacuated districts)


Thyroid absorbed doses for 1year old children in the first year after the accident in Fukushima prefecture and some districts nearby


Average effective doses for 1year old children in the first year after the Fukushima accident


Average doses per district for adults, children and infants representatifs for the inhabitants of Fukushima City


Distribution of the effective doses of the employees of the Fukushima NPP for the time period from March 11th 2011 to October 31th 2012

0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000

Asia (29%)

North America (46%)

Europe (75%)

Africa (59%)

Japan (27%)

China (68%)

South Korea (71%)

United States (49%)

Mexiko (29%)

Canada (56%)

Worldwide (30%)

Worldwide, incl. Ingestion

Excess lifetime morbitities from radioactivity releases from Fukushima-Daiichi by region: Best estimates, lower and upper uncertainties, based on

LNT-Hypothesis (percentages are total after end of simulation, i.e. in the 50 years following the one month simulation)

Source: JOHN E. TEN HOEVE & MARK Z. JACOBSON, Stanford University, Energy Environ. Sci., 2012, 5, pp. 8743-8757

Excess lifetime mortalities from radioactivity releases from Fukushima-Daiichi by region: Best estimates, lower and upper uncertainties, based on

LNT-Hypothesis (percentages are total after end of simulation, i.e. in the 50 years following the one month simulation)

0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000

Asia (27%)

North America (48%)

Europe (76%)

Africa (61%)

Japan (25%)

China (69%)

South Korea (72%)

United States (51%)

Mexiko (30%)

Canada (58%)

Worldwide (28%)

Worldwide, incl. Ingestion

Source: JOHN E. TEN HOEVE & MARK Z. JACOBSON, Stanford University, Energy Environ. Sci., 2012, 5, pp. 8743-8757

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100

All solid cancer (LAR) All solid cancer (LBR) Leukaemia (LAR) Leukaemia (LBR)

Breast cancer (LAR) Breast Cancer (LBR) Thyriod cancer (LAR) Thyriod cancer (LBR)

Male (1y) Male (10y) Male (20y) Female (1y) Female (10y) Female (20y)

WHO’s estimates of lifetime baseline risk (LBR) and lifetime attributable risk (LAR) in % for areas within Fukushima Prefecture with effective doses of 12-25 mSv in the

1st year; (in parentheses: age of exposure); uncertainties for LAR: 0.3x … 3x

Gesundheitliche Auswirkungen der Reaktorkatastrophe von Fukushima (WHO-Bericht)

Dosen bei der betroffenen Bevölkerung:

Im 1. Jahr Präfektur Fukushima (meistbelastete Bezirke)

Präfektur Fukushima (übrige Bezirke)

Übriges Japan

Rest der Welt

Eff. Dosis (mSv) 10 - 50 1 – 10 0.1 – 1 < 0.01 Schilddrüsen (mSv) 10 – 100 (wenige 100 – 200) 1 - 10 < 0.01

Risiko Krebserkrankung am meisten betroffenen Bevölkerung (für Individuen z.Z. Unfall im Kindesalter):

Leukämie Männer: < 7 %; Brustkrebs Frauen: < 6 %; übrige solide Tumoren: < 4 %; Schilddrüsenkrebs Frauen: < 70% (Zahl ist hoch, weil hier die spontane Inzidenz sehr tief ist!); Übrige stark-betroffenen Gebiete der Präfektur Fukushima: etwa die Hälfte der genannten Werte.

Betroffenen Arbeiter (rund 20‘000) im KKW Fukushima + Aufräumarbeiten:

für 2/3 < 10 mSv; für 1/3 10 - 50 mSv; für < 4 % 50 - 100 mSv; für < 1 % 100 - 200 mSv; für 0.5 % > 200 mSv. Schilddrüsendosen: für rund 70 %: 5 mSv; für 30 %: 140 mSv; für < als 1 %: 200 mSv.

Erwartete Zunahmen des Erkrankungsrisikos bei den Arbeitern:

Schilddrüsenkrebs, Leukämie und übrige soliden Tumoren (Zahlen berechnet für Altersklassen 20-, 40- & 60-jährige). (Zunahme ist bei jüngster Klasse relativ am höchsten da die spontane Inzidenz hier am tiefsten ist.)

Leukämie und den übrige soliden Tumoren: für 99 %: wenige %, Schilddrüse: einige 10 %.

Akute Strahlenerkrankungen wurden bei den Mitarbeitern keine festgestellt. Grosses Problem bleiben (auch hier) die nicht radiologischen Auswirkungen (PTSD) bei der Bevölkerung!!

30 km

Restricted Area, Deliberate Evacuation Area, Evacuation Area, Evacuation-Prepared Area in case of Emergency and regions including specific spot recommended for evacuation

(as of August 3, 2011) 1 day after the accident some 130‘000 inhabitants have been evacuated in area of r = 20 km. On March 5th 2011 345‘000 persons have been advised to stay indoors and additional measures were taken (for example on food).

Besten Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!

Fragen ?

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Freisetzung in die Luft [Bq] aus Tschernobyl (rot) und aus Fukushima-Dai-ichi (blau)

Bq

1 Tag - 1 Woche - 1 Jahr

134Cs 137Cs

132Te

133I131I

133Xe

85Kr

HWZ [d]

129I

Radioactivity releases into the air [Bq] at the Chernobyl (red) et the Fukushima accidents (blue)

Chernobyl releases ≈ 10 times higher than Fukushima

Release rates at the Chernobyl accident: Noble gazes ≈ 100 %; iodine ≈ 2/3; Cs, Te ≈ 1/3;

Other fission products (Sr) ≈ few%; actinides ≈ ≤ 3%

Sources: IRSN (F), GRS (D), Kurchatov (RF)

releases to the sea: total 4.7x1015 Bq

Last values by UNSCEAR 2013 by Isotope in 1015 Bq and % released: 132Te: 2.85 (0.33); 131I: 124 (2.1); 132I: 28.5 (0.32); 133I: 9.56 (0.07); 133Xe: 7320 (61); 134Cs: 9.01 (1.3); 136Cs: 1.77 (0.81); 137Cs: 8.85 (1.3)

Half-life [d]

Release [Bq]

1 day - 1 week - 1 year



Radioisotopes released (Source: IPSN/GRS et al.)

Isotope T ½ Inventory [PBq] Release [%] Release [PBq] 89Sr 50.5 d 4000 2.9 115 90Sr 28.8 y 230 4.3 10 95Zr 64.0 d 5800 3.4 196

99Mo 2.75 d > 6200 > 2.7 > 168 99Tc 211’000 y ca. 0.04 2 - 3 0.00097

103Ru 39.3 d > 3700 > 4.5 > 168 106Ru 372.6 d > 860 > 8.5 > 73 131I 8.04 d 3100 57 1760 133I 20.8 h 4800 19 910

132Te 3.26 d 4400 26 1150 133Xe 5.25 d 6500 100 6500 134Cs 2.07 y 170 32 54 137Cs 30.1 y 260 33 85 140Ba 12.8 d 6000 4.0 240 141Ce 32.5 d 5600 3.5 196 144Ce 284 d 3900 3.0 116 239Np 2.35 d 5900 1.6 945 238Pu 87.7 y 1.9 2.7 0.035 239Pu 24’100 y 1 3.2 0.03 240Pu 6540 y 1.5 2.8 0.042 241Pu 14.4 y 180 3.3 6.0 241Am 432.2 y ? ? 0.0042 242Cm 163 d 43 2.1 0.9

Chap. 8b 13 from 30

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Duration of the release (Source: IPSN/GRS et al.)

Chap. 8b 14 from 30

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Radioactivity of the air (aerosol filters) [Bq/m3] in Mai 1986 in Fribourg (Source: SFOPH)

Chap. 8b 23 from 30

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137Cs in milk from Ticino [Bq/l] (Average values for each interval) (Source: SFOPH)

Contamination from the air in spring-summer 1986, by contaminated hay in winter 1986/87 and by foot uptake in 1987 and following years

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Dose rate [µSv/h] by contamination in the vicinity of Chernobyl (left) and Fukushima (right) one month after the accidents

(Source: ENSI)

Comparison: brown + red + blue + violet (dose rate ≥ 20 µSv/h): Chernobyl: ≈ 420 km2; Fukushima: ≈ 43 km2; i.e. ≈ 1/10

Quelle: ENSI

Wichtigste Kritikpunkte der Fachleute

- Tsunami prevention was insufficient: Tsunamis of > 10 m happen in Japan! - During the last 500 years: at least 14, on average one every 30 years, - Greatest Tsunamis: 1993: 31 m and 1994: 11 m - Structures of the authorities: to heavy, on to many institutions and ministries - Nuclear authorities: no sufficiently independent for the NPP: - Separation & independency of Licensing and control is today state of the art in most of the nuclear countries and is required by the IAEA - The Fukushima-Daiichi NPP have never been inspected (OSART) or technically updated and modernized with regard to nuclear safety and security - The principle of multiple barriers was not fully respected and implemented, the same for the «Defense in Depth» principle, i.e. for diversification, redundancy and separation for all safety relevant parts of the reactor - No Hydrogen recombination an filtered containment venting system Buildings not watertight (protection against Tsunami insufficient) - Emergency measures insufficient; «Multi Block Units» = elevated risk - Failure of the Japanese System of nuclear safety: The Report by the Japanese Government: «The safety culture was insufficient !»

Main criticism by nuclear specialists

«Nuclear Safety Consciousness» in different countries worldwide, illustrated by the comparison of nuclear reactor to the OSART missions performed so far in each country.

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Numer of nuclear plants in operation by country Number of OSART and OSART Follow-up missions by the IAEA

Measurements in the air outside Japan

Comparaison 137Cs:

CH: nucl. weapons fallout Mai ‘76:

Air: up to 300 µBq/m3

CH: Chernobyl Mai ’86:

Air: Up to 1‘300‘000 µBq/m3

CH: Algeciras June ’98: Air: Up to 150 µBq/m3

CH: Fukushima air (at ground level)

March ’11: up to 42 µBq/m3

CH: Fukushima Air at 7900 m March 30th 11:

up to 170 µBq/m3

(Source: CFSR/KUER- and reports of the SFOPH) Source: SFOPH and ENSI

≈ 1/50

Iodine-131 (particle bound)

Japan

US (West Coast)

Germany

Switzerland

30 Jahre Tschernobyl und 5 Jahre Fukushima - fme.ch · 30 Jahre Tschernobyl und 5 Jahre Fukushima...

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