call 4T09 ENG Final

11
1 4Q09 Conference cal l Mar ch 1st , 2010

Transcript of call 4T09 ENG Final

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4Q09 Conference call

March 1st, 2010

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Disclaimer

The information contained in this presentation may include statements which constituteforward-looking statements, within the meaning of Section 27A of the U.S. SecuritiesAct of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements involve a certain degree of riskand uncertainty with respect to business, financial, trend, strategy and other forecasts,and are based on assumptions, data or methods that, although considered reasonableby the company at the time, may turn out to be incorrect or imprecise, or may not bepossible to realize. The company gives no assurance that expectations disclosed in

this presentation will be confirmed. Prospective investors are cautioned that any suchforward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve risksand uncertainties, and that actual results may differ materially from those in theforward-looking statements, due to a variety of factors, including, but not limited to, therisks of international business and other risks referred to in the company’s filings withthe CVM and SEC. The company does not undertake, and specifically disclaims anyobligation to update any forward-looking statements, which speak only for the date onwhich they are made.

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1. 4Q09 Highlights ......................................................................................................page 4

2. Pulp Market..............................................................................................................page 5

3. 4Q09 Performance...................................................................................................page 7

4. CAPEX 2010 / Working Capital................................................................................page 8

5. Indebtedness............................................................................................................page 9

Agenda

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4Q09 Highlights

Pulp Market

Record pulp sales volume

Liability management plan

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5

30

790

20

25

3035

40

45

50

55

   J  a  n  -   0   8

   M  a  r  -   0   8

   M  a  y  -   0   8

   J  u   l  -   0   8

   S  e  p  -   0   8

   N  o  v  -   0   8

   J  a  n  -   0   9

   M  a  r  -   0   9

   M  a  y  -   0   9

   J  u   l  -   0   9

   S  e  p  -   0   9

   N  o  v  -   0   9

   J  a  n  -   1   0

   M  a  r  -   1   0

   D  a  y  s

  o   f   S  u  p  p   l  y

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

   B   E   K

   P

   C   I   F   E   U

Days of Supply BEKP CIF EU list price

Demand: 3% p.a. growth until 2023

Pulp Market

Market pulp: global demand growth

Supply: capacity expansions announced until 2012

Source: PPPC, Nov. 09

BEKP CIF EU vs. World Producers’ Inventories

Sources: PPPC and FibriaSource: PPPC

45000

50000

55000

60000

65000

70000

75000

80000

85000

2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023

Supply Demand

   ‘   0   0   0

    t

Demand growth: 3%

p.a.

Sources: RISI e PPPC

DateCapacity

(‘000 t)

FiberCountryCompany

Chile

Russia

USA

China

Indonesia

HW

SW

SW

HW

HW

2,565 (~855/year)

275

210

280

1,300

500

3Q12CMPC

TOTAL

2012Ilim Group

4Q10Domtar

2007  – 2010APP

2010APRIL

2%

-11% -11%

10%

-17%

55%

Total North America Western

Europe

Latin America Japan China

2009 vs 2008

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Pulp Market: China

China: BHKP imports per country

China: market pulp demand (‘000 t)

Source: PPPC

New P&W capacity (UFS/CFS)*

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

   T  o   t  a   l   B   H   K   P

   B  r  a  z   i   l

   I  n   d  o  n  e  s   i  a

   C   h   i   l  e

   R  u  s  s   i  a

   U  r  u  g  u  a  y

   C  a  n  a   d  a

   U   S   A

   O   t   h  e  r  s

   T   h  a   i   l  a  n   d

+59%

+107%

+1,5%

+51%

+12%+117%

+38% +151%+142% +2%

2009 Growth

2008

   ‘   0   0   0

    t

Source: Hawkins Wright

Growth opportunities in tissue

Source: RISI

Source: Terrachoice

200Lee & Man

400Jiangsu Oji Paper

350Sun Paper / IP200Guangxi Yongkai Sugar

200Guangxi Jindaxing Paper

200Yeuyang Paper

1,200APP, Hainan Island

150Shandong Huatai Paper

240

2010:  +3.1 million t

Guangxi Huacheng Paper

800Shandong Chenming

300Sun Paper

450Shandong Chenming

500Shandong Huatai Paper

200Guangxi Yongkai Sugar

300China Metalurgical Meili

Paper

340

2011:  +2.9 million t

Guangxi Huajin Group

(*)Uncoated free sheet / Coated free sheet

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

   1   9   9   5

   1   9   9   6

   1   9   9   7

   1   9   9   8

   1   9   9   9

   2   0   0   0

   2   0   0   1

   2   0   0   2

   2   0   0   3

   2   0   0   4

   2   0   0   5

   2   0   0   6

   2   0   0   7

   2   0   0   8

   2   0   0   9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

N. America W. Europe Japan Oceania L. America E. Europe C hina Africa

   K  g   /  c  a  p   i   t  a

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7Source: Fibria

Operating Performance

Pulp: sales mix

Key Figures

EBITDA (R$/t)

4Q09 3Q094Q08

pro forma2009

2008

pro forma

Pulp Production ('000 t) 1,395 1,428 1,027 5,188 4,370

Pulp Sales ('000 t) 1,460 1,276 1,032 5,248 4,117

Paper Production ('000 t) 88 93 98 369 376

Paper Sales ('000 t) 111 110 123 418 448

Production cash cost (R$/t) 451 433 509 444 487

Net Revenue (R$ million) 1,698 1,402 1,593 6,000 5,953

Adjusted EBITDA (R$ million)(2)

503 426 546 1,697 2,196

EBITDA margin (%) 30% 30% 34% 28% 37%

Net Financial Income(3)

/ (Loss) (67) 571 (4,511) 1 ,770 (7,286)

Income before minority interest (R$ million) (109) 385 (3,592) 1,218 (5,014)

Minority Interest(R$ million) (41) (204) 2,624 (660) 3,704

Net Income / (Loss) (R$ million) (150) 181 (968) 558 (1,310)

472

305264

307 320

-90

10

110

210

310

410

510

4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09

4Q08

33%

25%

8%

34%

4Q09

22%

32%12%

34%

North America Asia Brazil / Others Western Europe

3Q09

22%

37%11%

30%

Cash cost (R$/t)

473

426 433

487

444

509

451

4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2008 2009

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4Q09 3Q094Q08

pro forma

Changes in operating assets:

Securities - 9 - 

Short-term Investment - - 87 

Trade accounts receivable (279)  (106) (71) Inventories 50 (110) 2 

Taxes on income and other taxes 18 14 (63) 

Credits from related parties 5 (2) - 

Advance to suppliers and others (207)  (11) 436 

Judicial deposits 9 (13) 11 

Changes in operating liabilities:

Trade Accounts Payable (99)  16 48 

Taxes on income and other taxes 12 (9) (27) 

Payroll , profit sharing and related charges (5) 26 (454) 

Others (88)  5 (47) 

Contingences paid - 21 73 

Leasing - - (4) 

Assets Drop Down - - - Source: Fibria

Capex 2010 / Working Capital

Industrial Expansion 211 948 53

Forest Expansion 5 57 63

Subtotal Expansion 216 1,005 116  Safety/Environment 7 25 98

Forest Renewal 86 310 549Maintenance, IT, R & D, Modernization 36 134 249

Subtotal Maintenance 129 469 896  

Subsidiaries, Joint Ventures and Others  32 135 235

Fibria Total 377 1,609 1,247 

CAPEX (R$ million) 4Q09 2009 2010 E

CAPEX

Working Capital (R$ million)

• Increase of 14% in pulp sales and 12% in net average pulp

price

• Accounting receivable of Guaíba second installment

• Effects of Guaíba asset sale

• Accounting record of operational leasing

• 2009 figures should not be used as comparison for a

benchmark as a required level for maintenance capex

• Due to the financial crisis, some activities,

particularly silviculture were minimized in 2009

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Indebtedness

Debt Amortization Profile (R$ billion) 

Debt Profile Average maturity* (months)

Gross Debt by currency and by type

Guaíba sale conclusion: US$1.4 billion

10-year bond issuance: US$1 billion

Two export prepayment transactions

US$750 million – 5 years / US$425 million – 7 years

Derivative debt pay off: US$2.1 billion

*Does not include the debt with former Aracruz shareholders

52 49 47 46

60

4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09

Gross Debt

by type

32%

25%

15%

12%

6%

4%

3%3%

Pre-Payment FamiliesBonds BNDESDerivatives ACC/ACENCE Others

Gross Debt

by currency

60%

40%

Local CurrencyForeign Currency

4Q09 3Q094Q08 pro

formaQoQ YoY  

Gross Debt (R$ million) 14,715 15,678 14,808 -6% -1%  

Cash Position (R$ million) 3,968 2,594 1,771 53% 124%  

Net Debt (R$ million) 10,747 13,084 13,037 -18% -18%  

0.326 0.289 0.144

0.824

0.453

0.7661.130

1.370

0.787

3.537

0.2720.262

1.471

3.084

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 a 2020

Local Currency Foreign C urrency

3.908

1.924

1.028

1.402

1.696

1.076

3.682

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Investor Relations Team

Marcos Grodetzky – IRO

André Gonçalves – IR General Manager

Fernanda N. Vaz – IR Consultant

Anna Laura L. Rondon – IR Specialist

Livia Baptista – IR Analyst