Linking Natural Resource Management andAdaptation to Climate ChangeExperiences from the Tajik Pamirs

3

Impressum

Editor:Deutsche Gesellschaft fürInternationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

Registered officesBonn and Eschborn (Germany)

Friedrich-Ebert-Allee 4053113 Bonn, GermanyT +49 228 44 60-0F +49 228 44 60-17 66

Dag-Hammarskjöld-Weg 1-565760 Eschborn, GermanyT +49 61 96 79-0F +49 61 96 79-11 15

E info@giz.deI www.giz.de

GIZ Regional ProgrammeSustainable Use of Natural Resources in Central Asia

Panfilova street, 150720040 Bishkek, KyrgyzstanT +996 312 90 93 40

E reinhard.bodemeyer@giz.deI www.giz.deI www.naturalresources-centralasia.org

ResponsibleDr. Reinhard Bodemeyer, Programme Director of the Regional Programme „Sustainable Use of Natural Resources in Central Asia“

AuthorsBenedikt Ibele, André Fabian, Mario Donga, Stefan Michel

Research TeamBenedikt Ibele, Iftikhor Mirshakarov, Shodigul Mamadyorbekova, Nigora Pallaeva

Contact at the Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Develop-ment (BMZ)East and Central Asia Division

PhotosBenedikt Ibele

MapsThe geographical maps are for information purposes only and do not consti-tute recognition under international law of boundaries and territories. GIZ does not guarantee in any way the current status, accuracy or completeness of the maps. All liability for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from their use is excluded.

LayoutBenedikt Ibele

Bishkek, 2012

The Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) is a semi-autonomous part of Tajikistan, comprising the largest part of the Tajik Pamirs, one of the highest mountain regions of the world. Tajikistan is the poorest among the Central Asian countries of the former Soviet Union and still has not entirely recovered from the ter-mination of external, subsidised supplies. GBAO is the most marginalised region of the country, home to only 3 per cent of Tajikistan’s population. The livelihood of its population depends to a great extent on water, ar-able land, pasture, forest and wild animals. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, centralised management structures and a highly subsidised economy suddenly fell apart, leaving the people of the Pamirs no choice but to excessively exploit the natural resources in order to sustain their livelihoods.

Since natural resources such as water, forests, arable land, pastures and wild animals are highly sensitive to climatic parameters, climate change has a potentially severe impact on natural resources in GBAO and on the people who rely on their use. Over the last 50 years, the annual average temperature in GBAO increased by up to 1.2°C. Climate projections indicate that it could further rise, reaching, by 2050, a level up to 2.9°C higher than that of the 1961-1990 period. Projections in precipitation are much more uncertain due to the country’s mountainous geography; observed tendencies mainly indicate seasonal shifts as well as an increase in unpredictability. However, what will certainly influence the availability of water in this semi-arid area is the pro-cess of deglaciation. If the present rate of glacier retreat persists, the small glaciers of Tajikistan will disappear totally in 30 to 40 years and the glacial area will shrink by 15-20 per cent from its present extent.

This study assesses the vulnerabilities of natural re-sources to climate change, identifies the observed and expected impacts on people and presents options for adaptation. The main vulnerabilities are the quality and quantity of water supply and the dependent sec-tors of farming, livestock breeding, wildlife use, drink-ing water supply, forestry and the related energy sector. Furthermore, natural disasters are expected to increase. This is a result of the expected seasonal fluctuations of water supply due to glacier retreat and temperature rise, increasing extreme weather events and seasonal shifts of precipitation. Increasing unpredictability of weather places an additional burden upon the popula-tion to cope with climatic changes. The study finds that a sustainable management of natural resources is key to adaptation to climate change in the Pamirs. How-ever, this will need to be complemented by knowledge management and promotion of disaster preparedness capacities.

The study reveals that the approaches and measures of the Regional Programme on “Sustainable Use of Natu-ral Resources in Central Asia” contribute significantly to the adaptation of natural resources to climate change in GBAO. Governance structures and procedures for sustainable forestry management are the basis for a sus-tainable management of that natural resource, which will play a key role in any adaptation effort. As a com-plement, the project fosters adaptation techniques that enhance the efficiency of the use of natural resources and substitute firewood. Through the rehabilitation of irrigation channels and reforestation activities, it also supports the development of the forestry sector. The sustainable use of wild animals offers complementary land-use options, diversifies the local economy and contributes to overall ecosystem resilience.

Abstract

4 5

Table of Contents

Impressum 2

Abstract 3

Table of Contents 5

Abbreviations 6

Foreword 7

1 Introduction 8

2 Climate change in Gorno-Badakhshan 10

2.1 The Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) 10

2.2 Climate change in Gorno-Badakhshan 12

3 Challenges of climate change and adaptation options for

natural resource management 17

3.1 Methodology and principles 17

3.2 Water dependent sectors 19

3.3 Agriculture 22

3.4 Forestry 26

3.5 Wildlife management 28

3.6 Other sectors 30

3.7 Summary of adaptation options 33

4 Contribution of the GIZ project to adapt the management of natural resources to

climate change 34

5 Synergies between options for adaptation to climate change and targets of the

Rio conventions and the mitigation of greenhouse gases 40

6 Conclusion and recommendations 41

7 Literature 44

8 Annexes 46

8.1 Annex I – Relevance of adaptation options in GBAO and synergies with

environmental conventions and climate change mitigation 46

8.2 Annex II – Table of boxes, figures and tables 50

8.2.1 Boxes 50

8.2.2 Figures 50

8.2.3 Tables 50

7

The present study was initiated and carried out in the context of the GIZ Regional Programme on Sustain-able Use of Natural Resources in Central Asia. From 2005 onwards, the programme launched and brought to full implementation a suite of some ten projects in the five Central Asian countries. The common denomi-nator of all these activities is the management of natural resources under threat in the thematic areas of pasture management, forest management, wildlife manage-ment and energy efficiency. A further common feature is that all these projects have been set up close to target populations in rural areas and in partnership with local government institutions.

The period from 2007 onwards was – and continues to be – marked by an ever increasing awareness of the importance of climate change, especially in relation to rural areas, and saw first attempts to address this new challenge. There is no doubt that responding to climate change requires national-level strategies when the chal-lenge is one of making whole economies meet mitiga-tion challenges and formulating appropriate responses to increase resilience to climate change. The compara-tive advantage of the Regional Programme, however, lies elsewhere. Instead of designing a completely new generation of projects which specifically seek an appro-priate response to climate change, it was felt that a start could be made by looking into the relevance for adap-tation to climate change of activities which projects are implementing anyway from the viewpoint of sustain-able use of natural resources. This seems a convincing approach, especially under the conditions of drylands where the choice of alternative land-use patterns tends to be extremely limited. That is how the present study on Gorno Badakhshan got under way. Only at a lat-er stage was the guiding question reversed by asking whether we must respond to climate change in the first place, and how our activities should be redesigned. The study reveals local coping strategies, strategies which lo-cal people facing changing climate conditions are un-dertaking on their own initiative based on their own observations and knowledge. Furthermore, it considers the measures and interventions that can be used to as-sist local people with technical support from outside.

The study therefore addresses, in the first instance, peo-ple, organisations and institutions who are already deal-ing with natural resources management close to rural populations, who have already acquired a basic set of data and observations about the interdependence be-tween rural life and the surrounding natural resources. These people, organisations and institutions have man-aged to gain confidence among rural target groups. This is an asset out of which it is then relatively easy and therefore relatively cost-effective to develop – or rather

to adapt – projects to respond in a targeted way to the challenge of adaptation to climate change.

The study also addresses people and institutions who are involved in designing national-level strategies for adaptation to climate change and for increasing climate resilience. National processes, which are to some ex-tent already under way in all Central Asian countries, would readily gain relevance, efficiency and feasibility by aggregating and up-scaling those solutions which have already generated and delivered sustainable solu-tions – although out of a different context – instead of designing large-scale blueprints and asking later how to implement them on the ground.

The present study has benefitted considerably from technical backstopping, guidance and funds made available by the Climate Task Force at GIZ Head Of-fice. Special thanks go to the team of authors and co-authors who have worked tirelessly to bring the study to its present state.

Dr. Reinhard Bodemeyer

DirectorRegional Programme on Sustainable Use of Natural Resources in Central Asia

Foreword

°C – degree CelsiusCBD – Convention on Biological DiversityCIF – Climate Investment FundsCITES – Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Fauna and FloraCMS – Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild AnimalsCP4Dev – Climate Proofing for DevelopmentEU – European UnionGCM – Global Circulation ModelGBAO – Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous OblastGIZ – Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbHIPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate ChangeJFM – Joint Forestry Managementmasl – metres above sea levelMDB – Multilateral Development BankMFO – Microfinance OrganisationMSDSP –Mountain Societies Development Support Programme of the Aga Khan FoundationNFP – National Forestry ProgrammeNGO – Non-Governmental OrganisationOECD – Organisation for Economic Co-operation and DevelopmentPPCR – Pilot Programme on Climate ResilienceRCM – Regional Circulation ModelSBA – Savings Book ApproachUN – United NationsUNCCD – United Nations Convention to Combat DesertificationUNFCCC – United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUNDP – United Nations Development ProgrammeVO – Village Organisation

Abbreviations

6

8 9

ready problematic today, even without climate change. This has political, social and bio-physical reasons. Chapter 2.2 focuses on climate change in GBAO and shows that such change will dramatically aggravate this situation. In the last 50 years, the annual average tem-perature in GBAO increased by up to 1.2°C. Climate projections indicate that by 2050 the increase could be as much as 2.9°C. Projections in precipitation are much more uncertain; observed tendencies mainly indicate seasonal shifts as well as an increase in unpredictability. However, what will certainly influence water availabil-ity in this semi-arid area is the process of deglaciation and seasonal shifts in river levels. If the present rate of glacial degradation persists, the small glaciers of Tajik-istan will totally disappear in 30 to 40 years and the gla-cial area will shrink by 15-20 per cent compared to its present extent (see chapter 2.2). This affects river levels, which are expected to drop, especially during summer when water is needed for agriculture. Temperature in-crease will accelerate evapotranspiration and will trig-ger plant pests and human diseases. Extreme weather conditions will lead to more frequent and devastating floods, droughts, landslides, mudflows, avalanches and glacial lake outbursts. Human and financial capacities are limited, while persisting governance problems in the management of natural resources result in a low level of adaptive capacity.

Due to the limitations of models to predict climate change (see Box 2 – Climate models), the adaptation measures presented in the study are “no-regret” meas-ures contributing to the resilience of the population against climatic shocks. This means that the local popu-lation benefits from the measures even if the predicted changes do not occur or the climatic impacts are other than projected. Any set of adaptation measures planned for application at a specific site needs to be adapted to the local conditions and cannot be taken as a blueprint from this report.

The methodology of this study is based on the GIZ tool Climate Proofing for Development (CP4Dev) and is applied mainly on the sectoral level of natural resource management (the methodology is presented in detail in chapter 3.1). Specifically, we assess climate change im-pacts and the resulting vulnerabilities in the sectors of water (chapter 3.2), agriculture (chapter 3.3), forestry (chapter 3.4), wildlife (chapter 3.5), and health, infra-structure and settlements (chapter 3.6). For every sec-tor, options for adaptation are presented. The findings of this research are based on existing scientific climate research data, interviews with scientists and profession-als working in Tajikistan and field research conducted in five representative villages in the Eastern and West-ern Pamirs.

National and international development practitioners and decision-makers in Tajikistan are the main target

group of this document. The document was developed by the GIZ “Regional Programme on Sustainable Use of Natural Resources in Central Asia” in close collab-oration with its different partners in GBAO, such as the State Forestry Agency of GBAO, the University of Central Asia, the microfinance organisation Madina and others.

The main issues tackled in this study are the major climatic trends in GBAO (chapter 2), the challenges that climate change poses to the management of natu-ral resources and possible adaptation options (chapter 3), contributions to climate change adaptation by the GIZ programme (chapter 4), and synergies between ad-aptation options and UN environmental conventions (chapter 5).

For Tajikistan, which is one of the first countries where the Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR)1 is implemented, it is crucial to determine what adaptation to climate change specifically entails and which meas-ures and approaches really help to increase the resilience of the affected local population. In response to mount-ing interest on the part of the Government of Tajikistan and of donors and development projects in tackling the challenges of climate change, the current study analyses the solutions the Regional Programme “Sustainable Use of Natural Resources in Central Asia”, implemented by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenar-beit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), might offer to adapt the management of nat-ural resources to climate change. The research is thus intended to serve as an input to the ongoing discourse. Specific adaptation options in the management of nat-

ural resources in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO), which comprises the Tajik part of the Pamirs, are presented.

Natural resources and the sectors relying on their use are very sensitive to climate change as they directly de-pend on the main climatic parameters: precipitation and temperature. In GBAO, people’s livelihoods are highly interlinked with the availability of these natural resources: most people make their living from subsist-ence farming and livestock breeding. Water and arable land are thus the main limiting factors for agriculture. Furthermore, the population depends highly on fire-wood, which is the main source of energy in the region. Wild animals contribute to the population’s nutrition in remote rural areas and are sources of income through the hunting and nature tourism sub-sectors. In chapter 2.1 we show that the availability of these resources is al-

1 Introduction

1 The Pilot Program for Climate Resilience is administered by the World Bank and implemented by the Multilateral Development Banks (MDBs). It has a volume of USD 659 million and is part of the Climate Investment Funds (CIFs). It aims to result in an “increased ap-plication of knowledge on integration of climate resilience into development”. With a learning-by-doing approach, it aims to develop projects that foster resilience against climate change in countries most vulnerable to climate change, such as Tajikistan. For Tajikistan, an estimated financing volume between USD 30 and 70 million is planned. (See: Maricla Costa, “Landscape of Actors and Activities on Climate Change Adaptation in Tajikistan”, GTZ 2009, p. 30, Climate Investment Fund, “Programming and Financing Modalities for the SCF Targeted Program”, the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR), 2009).

Box 1 – Regional Programme on Sustainable Use of Natural Resources in Central Asia

Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenar-beit (GIZ) GmbH, acting on behalf of the German Fed-eral Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ), implements the Regional Programme “Sustainable Use of Natural Resources in Central Asia” since 2008. Its strategy in Tajikistan is focussed on three components: (a) Sustainable Forest Management, (b) Development, Ad-aptation and Dissemination of Innovative Technologies (comprising energy and water efficient technologies) and (c) Sustainable Wildlife Management.

10 11

In general there is a need to distinguish between the Western and the Eastern Pamirs. In 2008, 14,000 peo-ple (about 6 per cent of GBAO’s population) lived in the Eastern Pamir. The Eastern Pamir is dominated by an arid high plateau comprising high mountains with an average elevation of 4,420 masl (ranging from 2,970 to 7,130 masl), whereas the Western Pamir is character-ised by high and steep valleys, with an average elevation of 4,060 masl (900 to 7,490).5

About 65 per cent of the Pamirs’ area is bare rock and soil surface, 10 per cent is perennial snow and glaci-ated surface and 20 per cent is sparsely vegetated area. Less than 5 per cent of the Pamirs’ area is land usa-ble for human economic activity, with medium dense vegetation still included, accounting for 4 per cent of the total area.6 In Soviet times, due to subsidised ex-ternal supplies, the people of the Pamirs did not have to rely on the locally available resources. During this time the Pamirs’ population increased tremendously, from less than 25,000 at the beginning of the Soviet Union (1917 data) to about 170,000 in 19917 and up to 220,000 in 2008.

Before Soviet times the main land use was mixed mountain agriculture, predominantly subsistence agri-culture, with a mix of livestock and foodstuff produc-tion. The Pamirs’ population was primarily self-reliant. During the Soviet Union, the allocation of agricultural production in GBAO was as follows: between 69 per cent and 76 per cent of the arable land was used for fodder production, whereas only 24 to 25 per cent was used for foodstuff production.8 But this could not serve the population’s own demand, especially not with the standard of living the Soviets introduced and with the increase in population during this time. Thus, most traditional land-use habits have already fallen into oblivion or are simply not practicable anymore.

The demanding geographic conditions in connection with the political and economic conditions have vari-

ous implications for the livelihoods of the local popula-tion. Major challenges are emerging for livelihoods in GBAO:

Weak public servicesAs a result of the civil war and the collapse of the So-viet Union, public social services deteriorated. Despite some recent improvement their quality remains low and a large proportion of the population has only lim-ited access to basic services such as schools and health posts.9 Although, there are still schools and medical centres from Soviet times in almost all of the villages in the Pamirs, or close by,10 the equipment is in very bad condition and the schools and medical centres suf-fer from a chronic lack of well-trained staff. Due to the prevailing Soviet management systems, which are not suited to the changed setting, and aggravated by a chronic lack of funding, the management of natural resources in the Pamirs remains poor. This also applies to the governmental agency responsible for forestry management, the State Forest Enterprise (in Russian: Leskhoz). Its equipment, staff, expertise and budget are insufficient, and its management systems are not adapt-ed to the changed conditions. The statutory framework and management procedures have hardly changed since Soviet times and are not capable of sustainably manag-ing or protecting forests under the new conditions.11 This results in poor management of forest resources.12 Wildlife management faces the same problems; further-more, the quota for wild animals to be hunted is not re-lated to monitoring data and the procedures for issuing permits are intransparent.13 The picture is similar with regard to water resources management. The agency managing water resources, the Vodkhoz, is based on the Soviet system, but cannot maintain irrigation systems sustainably. Villages in the Pamirs therefore mostly find their own, individual water management solutions (see also chapters 3.2 and 3.3).14 As a result of the work of the Mountains Society Development Support Pro-gramme (MSDSP), Village Organisations (VOs), local instruments of self-governance, were established in al-

2.1 The Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO)

In order to understand the challenges climate change poses to livelihoods in GBAO, this chapter sets out the socio-economic conditions in the region.

Tajikistan is a landlocked country, bordering Afghani-stan, China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. After the col-lapse of central Government of the Soviet Union, the highly subsidised economy (50 per cent of the country’s budget was paid by the Soviet Union) suffered severely from a lack of almost everything and the country slid into in a five-year civil war, which devastated the na-tional economy and infrastructure and claimed a tre-mendous number of victims. Nowadays Tajikistan is ranked as the poorest country in Europe and Central Asia2, with a Gross National Income per capita of about US$700 in 20093.

The Tajik Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) is a mountainous region in the eastern part of Tajikistan. It covers the main part of the Pamir Moun-tains, which reach into Kyrgyzstan from the northern part of GBAO, into China from the eastern part and into Afghanistan from the southern part. The highest elevation of the Pamirs is marked by Peak Somoni (for-merly Peak Communism) at 7,495 metres above sea level (masl). Many glaciers cover the high altitudes of the Pamirs, including the longest glacier outside of the polar region: Fedjenko Glacier, which stretches across a length of more than 70 km. Hence, the Tajik Pamirs are the main water reservoir for Central Asia, feeding the Amu Darya, which was a major source for the drying-up Aral Sea.GBAO covers almost 43 per cent of the country’s area and is sparsely populated due to the harsh natural con-ditions. About 220,000 people, roughly 3 per cent of Tajikistan’s population, live in an area of 64,200 km².4

2 Climate change in Gorno-Badakhshan

2 See: World Bank, Country Partnership Strategy, p. 1 (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/TAJIKISTANEXTN/Resources/Country_CPS.pdf ), accessed 28 January 2011.3 See: World Bank (http://web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/TAJIKISTANEXTN/0,,menuPK:287273~pagePK:141132~piPK:141109~theSitePK:258744,00.html), accessed 28 January 2011.4 Population data of 2008, Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, (http://www.stat.tj/english/database.htm), accessed 5 July 2011.

5 See: Hergarten, Christian. 2006. “Investigations on land cover and land use of Gorno Badakhshan (GBAO) by means of land cover classi-fications derived from LANDSAT 7 data making use of remote sensing and GIS techniques”, diploma thesis at the University of Bern, p. 4.6 Based on Hergarten, p. 66 (for the calculation, usable land is: irrigated village area, valley meadow area, high meadow area, medium dense vegetation area, dense vegetation area, forest area).7 See: Herbers, Hiltrud. 2006. Postsowjetische Transformation in Tadschikistan: die Handlungsmacht der Akteure im Kontext von Landre-form und Existenzsicherung. Erlanger Geographische Arbeiten, Sonderband 33. Erlangen: Fränkische Geographische Gesellschaft. P 214.8 See: Hergarten p. 10.9 See: World Bank, Country Partnership Strategy, p. 10.10 In the villages, the research was conducted in schools and medical centres that were not further from the villages than 5km.11 In June 2011, after years of discussion, the Parliament of the Republic of Tajikistan accepted a reformed national Forestry Code, which acknowledges sustainable use as a guiding principle for forestry. This must be considered a crucial step for forestry sector reform. However, law enforcement and management on site will require further efforts by responsible state organisations and international development cooperation.12 See: Kirchhoff, Joachim-F; Fabian, André. 2010. “Forestry Sector Analysis of the Republic of Tajikistan”. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH; Regional Programme on Sustainable Use of Natural Resources in Central Asia; Dushanbe. p. 30 ff.13 See: Kirchhoff et al; p 27.

12 13

tions and the development of climatic conditions over the past 50 years can already provide a rough picture of the situation in the Pamirs, allowing conclusions on how best to respond in order to adapt to climate change.

Most retrospective climate studies refer to the time-frame from 1961 to 1990. They indicate that the aver-age temperature in Tajikistan increased by 0.1 to 1.2°C, depending on region and altitude. Above 2,500 masl – including all Eastern Pamir – the increase seems to be lower than in the floodplains and lowlands, i.e. the temperature rise here was between 0.1 and 0.7°C.

According to the Second National Communication of the Republic of Tajikistan21, warming during the win-ter season is most pronounced (up to 3°C), leading to an increase of the duration of the frost-free period by 5 to 10 days. Moreover, extreme temperature phenomena are now registered more frequently. On the one hand, cold spells tend to occur more often, especially in spring and autumn, while the number of days during which temperatures exceed 40°C has increased by 30 per cent at the same time. This is also due to the fact that warm winds are becoming increasingly pronounced.22

most all villages in GBAO, forming an important part of social self-organisation there. Furthermore, people in the Pamirs mostly rely on family ties for social security, which are very strong.

Rudimentary infrastructureDue to the Pamirs’ mountainous topography, infra-structure is hard to construct and maintain. The infra-structure in GBAO was mostly built during the time of the Soviet Union, which provided a remarkably good access by roads, electricity and telephone lines to almost each village. But as there was hardly any maintenance after the end of the Soviet Union, the current condi-tion is poor or not even functional at all. Although Pamir Energy, a public-private partnership enterprise, has achieved significant improvements during the past years, regular electricity supply is only available in parts of the Western Pamir. Water is available in all villages but often in unsatisfactory quality and sometimes in low quantity. This is also due to the major seasonal fluctuations of river water levels and rudimentary infra-structure. In the Eastern Pamir, water supply infrastruc-ture consists of wells for drinking water, which are often in poor condition,15 and basic seasonal canals for irriga-tion in summer. In the Western Pamir, drinking water is taken either directly from rivers or from springs by pipes; there are canals for irrigation water as well. Water often needs to be carried to the peoples’ homes, some-times over long distances, which is usually the work of the women. Due to high seasonal fluctuations in water supply as well as avalanches, mudflows etc. the water infrastructure is highly vulnerable.

Economic marginalisationIn rural GBAO, 47.2 per cent of the population lives in poverty. In urban GBAO the proportion is 18.4 per cent.16 Thus many people are forced to seek some alter-native income. In the Western Pamir, for example, there is a high rate of migration to work in Russia (between 22 and 30 per cent). In contrast, there is no substantial migration to Russia in the Eastern Pamir,17 where the main destination for labour migration is Kyrgyzstan, and the rate of labour migration is generally lower. In

the Western Pamir, remittances from Russia therefore account for a large proportion of people’s financial in-come. Crop production, forestry and livestock breed-ing are the key sources of livelihoods in GBAO. In the Eastern Pamir, approximately 50 per cent of people’s subsistence relies on livestock breeding. In the Western Pamir, cropping and forestry, which, due to the harsh climatic conditions, is not possible in the eastern part, are important livelihood factors as well. However, due to limited arable land and water availability, their eco-nomic potential is low. Some villages are rich in pre-cious stones and/or metals, but under national legisla-tion and policies people cannot extract any profit from them.18 Populations of wild animals such as Marco Polo sheep, ibex, snow leopard and others live in the mountains around the villages and are under threat of extinction due to unregulated illegal use. Regulated, well-managed international hunting tourism as well as regulated hunting by local hunters, complemented by non-extractive use for nature tourism could, and in some places already does, end the current “open access” dilemma. This approach generates additional income for the local population, contributing to establishment of a sustainable system of conservation of these endan-gered species.19

2.2 Climate Change in Gorno-Badakhshan

According to the World Bank, Tajikistan is the coun-try in Central Asia and Europe most vulnerable to cli-mate change.20 This is mainly due to the fact that the economic, social and political structures of the country are very sensitive to external shocks, highly exposed to climate change and at the same time do not possess the necessary capacities to adapt to the changing climatic conditions.

Climate projections for GBAO, or even for Tajikistan, are still highly uncertain, as no specific models have yet been devised. The key drawback of global models is their incapacity to take into consideration the local mountainous peculiarities of climate formation pre-dominant in GBAO, especially concerning precipita-tion projections. However, downscaled global projec-

14 See: Mamadyorbekova, Shodigul; “Historical Aspect of Irrigation Development in the Pamirs – An investigation into the irrigation system and irrigation management within different time frames in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO)”, p. 14 ff.15 In Kona Kurgan, the drinking water from the wells is of bad quality; diseases have occurred. In Chechekti, there are two wells with hand pumps for 63 households; in Alichur, there are four wells for 360 households, two of them with hand pumps.16 Poverty is measured here with two methods: “(i) the international standards of poverty (US$2.15/day), which depends on purchasing power parity; and (ii) the value of basic household needs”. See: International Monetary Fund. 2010. “Republic of Tajikistan: Poverty Re-duction Strategy Paper”. Washington. p. 6.17 In Alichur, there are migrants amongst the Pamiri population (to approximately the same amount), indicating that the difference in migration is not a regional but an ethnic difference.18 Precious stones can be found around Shivoz and Navobod villages, but it is illegal to collect or sell them; there is a silver mine close to Alichur, but the village does not profit from it; close to Kona Kurgan, there is an abandoned coal mine.19 See: Michel, Stefan. “Conservation and Use of Wild Ungulates in Central Asia – Potential and Challenges”, in Baldus, Damm, Wolls-cheid (editors), Best Practices in Sustainable Hunting – A Guide to Best Practices from Around the World, CIC – International Council for Game and Wildlife Conservation, Hungary, p. 73ff.20 See: World Bank. 2009. “Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia”, p. 5.

21 See: The Government of the Republic of Tajikistan, The State Agency of Hydrometeorology, Committee for Environmental Protec-tion under the Government of Tajikistan. “The Second National Communication of the Republic of Tajikistan under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, Dushanbe, 2008 (SNC).22 See: Kayumov A., Rajabov I. 2008. “Glaciers – Water Resources of Tajikistan in Condition of the Climate Change.” Dushanbe.

Figure 2 - Annual temperature anomalies in the Pamirs: T deviations from 1961 to 1990, °C

Source: Second National Communication of the Republic of Ta-jikistan under the United Nations Framework Convention on Cli-mate Change, P. 29

Figure 1 – Changes in annual air temperature in Tajikistan

Source: Second National Communication of the Republic of Tajikistan under the United Nations Framework Conven-tion on Climate Change, P. 29

14 15

Changes in seasonality and the amount of water flows from river systems are likely to occur due to climate change. This is partly due to deglaciation processes.26 Scientific research revealed that the glaciated area of Tajikistan has shrunk by around one third since the 1930s.27 For example, in the Western Pamir the glaci-ated area in the basin of Vanj river dwindled by more than 25-30 per cent within the last 50 years. In the Eastern Pamir glacial degradation takes place less inten-sively than in other parts of the Pamirs due to a harsher and colder climate. If the present rate of glacier retreat persists, the small glaciers of Tajikistan will disappear to-tally in 30 to 40 years and the glaciated area will shrink by 15-20 per cent compared to its present extent. Yet large glaciers and glacial knots will still remain. A pro-jection by Hagg et al. is based on a temperature increase of 2.2°C (emission scenario A2) to 3.1°C (emission sce-nario A1F1) by 2050 for the Pamirs.28 According to the modelling by Hagg et al., the current glacier extent will be reduced by 36 per cent (temperature increase of 2.2°C) and 45 per cent (temperature increase of 3.1°C) respectively. Below 4,400 masl, glaciers will disappear totally, up to 5,000 masl they will decrease by more than 50 per cent, and between 5,000 and 5,300 masl glaciers will be reduced by 28-36 per cent. Above 5,300 masl no major changes are expected.29 Runoff scenarios based on the expected temperature increase and degla-ciation described above indicate that the total annual

Regarding precipitation there is no clear trend in GBAO. Most scientific sources state that in the Eastern Pamir, precipitation has decreased by 5-10 per cent (in Murghab even by 44 per cent). Furthermore, hydro-logical stations above 2,500 masl have registered about 3 per cent less precipitation, while below that altitude precipitation increased by 8 per cent. For the Western Pamir the majority of the observations indicate a slight increase of precipitation; expert opinions agree with this finding. In line with the trends in temperature, extreme precipitation events have become more frequent. Days with precipitation of 5 mm and more occur more of-ten, resulting in more floods, water-induced landslides and mudflows. Regarding the temporal distribution of precipitation, scientists have found a shift of precipita-tion from winter to summer. This leads to a decrease of snowfall and an increase of rainy days.23 Villagers of the Pamirs have further stated that it is becoming more difficult to predict precipitation.

Future projections based on the HadCM2 model24, which is used in the First National Communication, clearly indicate that exposure to climate change will further increase. By 2050 the temperature is expected to rise by 1.8 to 2.9°C, with a more pronounced rise in winter while in summer the increase will be low-est. Most predictions also suggest an increase in the frequency and intensity of droughts and heat waves. Regarding precipitation scenarios there is still major uncertainty. The Second National Communication states that the past trend of reduced precipitation in the Eastern Pamir will probably persist while for the west-ern part a slight increase might be possible. Contrary to the past tendency of increasing summer precipitation, projections indicate a shift to the winter season. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)25 further anticipates an increase in the frequency of very dry spring, summer and autumn seasons for all of Cen-tral Asia.

23 Ibid.24 The HadCM2 model, using IS92 scenarios, was identified as the most consistent model for temperature analysis (however, errors still range from 1°C to 5°C compared to real climate). It assumes a doubling of CO2 concentration by 2050 (base year 1990) and thus predicts a temperature rise for Tajikistan of 1.8–2.9°C compared to the 1961-1990 period by 2050. Although representing the worst case scenario among all other models applied, it underestimated the temperature values when compared to the real climate.25 Cruz, R.V., H. Harasawa, M. Lal, S. Wu, Y. Anokhin, B. Punsalmaa, Y. Honda, M. Jafari, C. Li and N. Huu Ninh, 2007: Asia. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p.478.

Figure 3 – Changes in annual precipitation in Tajikistan

26 Although some experts claim contradicting tendencies, this study assumes a continuation of the process of deglaciation in the Pamirs.27 See: Kayumov et al.28 Based on the modelling by Agaltseva et al. (2005), the projection is based on the average of six Global Circulation Models (HadCM3, ECHAM4, CSIRO-TR, GFDL-TR, CGCM1-TR, CCSR-NIES) using the baseline scenario 1961 to 1990; see Agaltseva et al., cited in Hagg, W., Hoelzle, M., Wagner, M. and Klose, Z. 2011. Estimation of future glaciation and run off in the Tanimas basin, Eastern Pamirs”. Discussion paper, published by Copernicus Publications. p. 1513.29 The projections are based on data from the Bartang river catchment in the Western Pamir, which is already close to the Eastern Pamir, see: Hagg et al, p. 1518.30 See: Randall et al; Climate Models and Their Evaluation. In: IPCC 2007, p. 594ff; World Bank; “Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia”, p. 21ff.

Source: Second National Communication of the Republic of Tajikistan under the United Nations Framework Conven-tion on Climate Change, P. 30

Box 2 – Climate models

Global Climate Models (or General Circulation Models – GCMs) are the most accepted and widespread tools used for projecting future climate change. GCMs are basically mathematical representations of the climate system, building on the accepted physical laws of thermodynamics, momentum, conservation of energy and ideal gas law. GCMs typically have a spatial scale of 100 to 400 km, which means that aspects of those climate dynamics that have a smaller spatial scale are imperfectly incorporated and averaged entirely across the grid cell. GCMs perform better in projecting temperature than precipitation and mean changes rather than extreme events. Models are usually tested by running them for past changes; this also helps to identify the model most applicable for the region in question. Models are based on emission scenarios, and thus can be applied for all possible future scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions.

Tests of GCMs for Central Asia revealed that they perform poorly for that region. This is due to the topography of the region, but also due to the fact that Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are much less developed than those for Europe. Furthermore, the difficulties with incorporation of the effects of clouds into models remain a major uncertainty of GCMs.Despite the potential of climate models, as models they can never perfectly reflect reality; this is particularly true when re-producing a system as complex as the global climate. Thus GCMs can only provide an idea of the future climate, although a scientifically well-founded one, but do not serve as a scientific forecast.30

Figure 4 – Observed and predicted change in glacier volume in Tajikistan

Source: Second National Communication of the Republic of Ta-jikistan under the United Nations Framework Convention on Cli-mate Change, P. 38

16 17

3.1 Methodology and principles

This chapter presents the challenges posed by climate change to the management of individual natural re-sources in GBAO and the adaptation options. First a) the vulnerabilities of the resources to climate change are discussed, then b) the expected impacts of climate change on the natural resources are analysed, and fi-nally c) proposed options for adaptation are presented.

Vulnerability is defined in this study as the extent to which natural resources are susceptible or unable to cope with climate change. It is defined by the exposure and sensitivity of the resource to climate change, both of which increase vulnerability, and its adaptive capac-ity, which decreases its vulnerability.33 Climate impact is the effect of climate change on a vulnerable system. Negative impacts are either already observed as a result of climatic changes or are expected if the anticipated climate change occurs. Adaptation is aimed at reduc-ing the vulnerability, either by increasing the adaptive

capacity of the resource or decreasing exposure or sen-sitivity to climate change, thus increasing the resilience to climate change. It is an adjustment of the resource to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportu-nities.34 The options for adaptation presented here are aimed at increasing resilience against climatic shocks and are thus “no-regret” measures: beneficial if antici-pated changes happen, but also if not.

This research is based on data from three different sources. In 3-step field research, data on climate change perceptions and the vulnerabilities of the local popula-tion was collected in 5 representative villages in both the Eastern and Western Pamirs. Interviews with con-tact persons and transect walks provided an overview of the conditions in the villages. Then, selected natural resource user groups were interviewed in focus groups. Furthermore, semi-standardised interviews were con-ducted with local experts (Tajikistan-wide) and a com-prehensive desk review was carried out. This approach,

runoff remains stable until 2050, while the seasonal distribution shifts towards a surplus in May-June and a shortage in July-September.31 Due to temperature in-crease and deglaciation, snowmelt will be earlier (May-

June) and more intense, resulting in a shortage in July-August. Glaciers are crucial for controlling melt water yield due to their buffering and storage effects.32

Figure 5 – Glaciers in Tajikistan, including Gorno-Badakhshan

Source: Second National Communication of the Republic of Tajikistan under the United Nations Framework Conven-tion on Climate Change, P. 12

3 Challenges of climate change and adaptation options for natural resource management

33 See: IPCC, cited in OECD. 2009. “Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co-operation – Policy Guidance”, p. 3834 See: IPCC, cited in Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH.“Ecosystem-based Adaptation – Working Paper” unpublished manuscript. p.14.

31 See: Hagg et al, p. 1520.32 See: Hagg et al, p. 1520.

18 19

The data gained was then structured and categorised in order to be formulated as impact chains, using an adapted form of the GIZ Climate Proofing for Devel-opment methodology (CP4Dev; see Box 2). Functional chains were elaborated for the relevant natural resources (water, forest/teresken, agriculture, biodiversity/wild-

life) and other relevant sectors (health, infrastructure, settlements). Starting from the climatic stimuli, the im-pact chains analysed the uses and users of the resource, the expected climate change impacts and the vulner-abilities. The results and adaptation options reported in this chapter are based on those impact chains.

3.2 Water dependent sectors

Water is a crucial factor for agriculture, human con-sumption and hydropower in GBAO. Thus its avail-ability is vital to the region’s development. Moreover, water is also the Pamirs’ most important source of en-ergy, with two hydropower stations around Khorog be-ing the main providers of electricity in GBAO.

Although, thanks to its glaciers, water is abundant in the Pamirs, the slopes of the Pamirs’ valleys are dry and barren. Due to the mountainous relief in connection with the sparse vegetation and the low rate of precipita-tion, most of the water flows unused down the rivers. Therefore, agriculture is only possible directly in the

using three different sources, was designed to capture the perspectives of three different levels: the local, na-tional and regional. It represents research from two di-

rections at the same time, bottom-up and top-down, assuring a comprehensive insight into the problem. At the same time the data was thus triangulated.

Box 3 – Climate Proofing for Development (CP4Dev) and its application in this studyClimate Proofing for Development is a methodological approach aimed at incorporating issues of climate change into development planning. It enables development measures to be analysed with regard to the current and future challenges and opportunities presented by climate change. It can be applied at national, sectoral, local and project level, and is making development measures on these levels more efficient and resilient. Climate Proofing for Development offers a means of identifying and prioritising options for action when adapting planning to climate change and when reviewing priorities. Climate Proofing for Development builds on the principles set out in OECD’s Policy Guidance “Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Cooperation”.35

Climate Proofing for Development is based on climate impact chains, measuring the impact of climatic changes on a system of interest (or “exposure unit”). Current and future changes are analysed regarding their existing as well as expected bio-physical and socio-economic impacts on the specific system/unit. With this information the vulnerability of the system/unit can be assessed and options for adaptation can be identified and selected.

In this study, Climate Proofing for Development was applied to the sectoral level of natural resources in GBAO. The tool was used to conduct a comprehensive vulnerability assessment of the sector in GBAO and reveals adaptation options beyond the project’s activities. In order to define what adaptation means at the local level and which vulnerabilities the local population of the Pamirs face, a participatory approach was necessary. The research team was faced with a lack of specific data on climate change and its impacts in the Tajik Pamirs.

To serve these specific needs and compensate the lack of data, the following adaptations of the tool were neces-sary:

i. Participatory approach: by involving the local population of five selected villages, as well as local experts, the vulnerabilities and needs of the local population were integrated into the research. ii. Triangulation of data: to cope with the lack of data, three different sources were involved in the research. (1) a desk review gathered the few existing publications on the Pamirs and Tajikistan, as well as on Central Asia and global climate change; (2) expert interviews included the knowledge of experts from GBAO and Tajikistan; (3) field research gathered indigenous knowledge on observed changes and appraised the vulnerabilities of the local population.iii. Natural resource focus: in order to assess impacts, vulnerabilities to climate change and respective adapta-tion options with regard to natural resources, the impact chains for the relevant resources were developed by means of the CP4Dev method (see Table 1).

Table 1 – Representative impact chain

Source/

CC scenario

Rainfall

Snow fall/snow melt

Process of glacier

melting

Temperature

Natural resource

groundwater (only in the

floodplains)

small rivers from gorges

main rivers

Use

Irrigation water for

agriculture

Users

Rural Population

Expected impacts of CC

Seasonal decrease

of water

availability in small

rivers

Vulnerabilities

Agriculture highly

vulnerable (high

dependence on

irrigation)

Adaptation Options

Sustainable water

management

(including tech-

nical assistance)

35 Fröde, Hahn, 2010, Climate Proofing for Development - Adapting to Climate Change, Reducing Risk, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH, Eschborn, p. 4. 36 See: Hergarten, p. 4.

Box 4 – Differences in the water sector between Eastern and Western PamirsThe water sector in the Eastern Pamir differs very much from that in the Western Pamir. The major rivers of the Pamirs are all located in the western part, although some of their sources lie in the Eastern Pamir, as all of the water from the Pamirs flows westward via the Panj or the Vakhsh to the Amu Darya and finally to the Aral Sea. Precipitation increases towards the west too, being about 200 to 350 millimetres per year in the Panj and Gunt valleys and reaching its highest in the central Pamir at Fedshenko Glacier at about 2,234 millimetres per year. Further differences between the Eastern and Western Pamirs are:

- The high arid plateau of the Eastern Pamir has an annual precipitation of 70 to 120 millimetres; about 5.5 percent of the area is covered by glaciers. The Western Pamir has a mean annual precipitation of 100 to 300 mil-limetres; about 14 percent is covered by glaciers.

- The rivers in the Eastern Pamir are mostly frozen in winter, whereas in the Western Pamir at least the main riv-ers in the valleys run the whole year. This has important implications for the availability of water; whereas people in the Eastern Pamir are facing water scarcities, especially in winter, and need to rely on sometimes very deep wells, the availability of water in the Western Pamir is much better due to the rivers.

- Due to the water scarcity and the dependence of many households on wells, the quality of water in the Eastern Pamir is generally worse, and sometimes subject to contamination.36

Focus-group interviews formed an important part of the field reaserach.

The Rangkul valley in the Eastern PamirThe Panj valley in the Western Pamir

20 21

- Water efficiency: Education campaigns should be launched in order to ensure a sustainable use of the scarce resource.Changes in runoff of river basins could have a signifi-cant effect on hydropower output in GBAO and for the whole country.43 While in the short to medium term the annual water quantity will not pose major problems for hydropower plants on larger rivers (or may even be beneficial for them), the inter-annual and seasonal fluctuation of the water quantity and the prob-able high amount of influx of sediments will affect the productivity of those plants. High maintenance costs and additional preventive physical structural measures against flooding, mudflows and glacial lake outburst floods are expected to be needed.

Adaptation options for hydropower- Protection of hydropower plants: The already exist-ing hydropower plants which are or will be threatened by climate change effects need to be retrofitted with preventive measures (e.g. mudflow channels, de-sed-imentation systems, early warning systems to protect against natural disasters, anti-erosion measures like tree-planting or terracing of slopes within an integrated watershed management scheme). Planned hydropower plants should undergo a climate proofing44 that evalu-ates whether the effects of climate change and necessary countermeasures do not render the project unprofit-able.

- Decentralised power supply: The availability of hy-dropower plants which are smaller but are in greater number reduces the risk of power outages in GBAO. Thus, under increasing risk decentralised energy supply solutions should be given priority.

- Alternative renewable energy sources: Instead of hy-dropower, wind and solar energy could be a substitute for the highly climate-change-sensitive source of ener-gy. In a short-term perspective this needs to be comple-mented by efforts to increase the efficiency with which energy is used, in order to slow the rise in energy de-mand.

The fragile ecosystems of the Pamirs are highly special-ised and therefore even small fluctuations in climate can have drastic consequences. Even if profound research about the effects of climate change on the ecosystems of the Pamirs is still not yet available it can be assumed that climate change may increase the growth of some plants in the mountain range land while winter pasture might suffer from temperature increase and scarcity in

precipitation. Forests will suffer from water scarcity and temperature increase will change the species com-position of flora and fauna. Desert areas will further spread. The phenology of plants (the biological cycle of blossom and maturation) will be and already is af-fected. The projected temperature increase aside, farm-ers in the villages already report that maturation and blossoming is shifting towards later months and some crops are not even reaching maturation any more.45 The ecozones may move upward and northward,46 although more detailed research would be necessary to recognise clear trends.

Adaptation options for ecosystems- In-depth research: In order to identify an adaptation strategy for the Pamirs’ ecosystems, in-depth research on the ecosystem impacts of climate change needs to be undertaken.

- Sustainable management of natural resources: Sus-tainable management – encompassing sustainable use of resources and the conservation of the most vulner-able and valuable ecosystems – will reduce the pressure on natural resources and thus increase the natural resil-ience and coping capacities for an auto-adaptation of ecosystems. In this context, the conservation of biodi-versity plays a vital role (see also chapter 3.5) as a broad genetic pool is vital for the adaptation of ecosystems. The huge variety of microclimates in the mountainous area and the correspondingly high variation of adapted forms of ecosystems will be an asset for the necessary adaptation and can be used for anthropogenic adapta-tion measures.

- Reforestation/afforestation: Reforestation and/or af-forestation with endemic plants and trees are measures to sustain certain threatened ecosystems and help retain water. This further lowers the threats from natural dis-asters caused by extreme weather events.

- Sustainable wildlife management: Wildlife in the Pamirs is already under threat of extinction; especially wild mammals are subject to sometimes unregulat-ed hunting tourism and illegal poaching. As climate change will pose additional pressure on wildlife habi-tats, a sustainable management based on income gen-eration for the local population from regulated hunting tourism targeting trophy-species can reduce the pres-sure on wildlife, thus increasing the resilience of the ecosystem (see also chapter 3.5 wildlife).

river plains or by irrigating the land. Due to manage-ment shortcomings (see Box 6 – Changes in irrigation water management), water in GBAO does not serve the current need of its inhabitants.

Climate change will drastically curtail water availability. In the semi-arid area of the Pamirs, rivers are the main source of water. As most major rivers in GBAO are fed by glaciers, contributing around 10 to 20 per cent37, the melting process of glaciers will have a significant influence on water availability, not only for the Pamirs but also for the rest of the country, as well as down-stream countries. It is expected that the glacial inflow to the large rivers will increase due to intensive melt-ing of mountain glaciers in the short to medium term, while in the long term inflow will dramatically decrease due to the glacial deficit. Thus the availability of water may drop in Amu Darya by up to 40 per cent in the long term.38 For smaller rivers which are fed by snow and small glaciers, the future already looks alarming in the short to medium term. Research conducted in 2008 by the local water authority in GBAO reveals that 140 registered sources already ran dry in the Pamirs39. In ad-dition, the farmers of the region report that nowadays in early summer increased water runoff, in connection with increased precipitation, has caused inundations and mudflows, whereas in late summer the water level drops drastically, which hampers agriculture40. Obser-vations by Hagg et al. validate the trend of the highest increase of water levels in spring and early summer and decrease in summer and early autumn. This trend is ex-pected to continue (see chapter 2.2)41. This phenome-non is attributed to a decreased buffer effect of glaciers. In addition, the link between disaster frequency and climate change is obvious, as more and more large-scale sudden floods, mudflows, droughts, pest outbreaks, etc. are associated with the effects of climate change.

Agriculture is the sector most vulnerable to the reduced water availability and thus both farming and livestock breeding will suffer severely (see chapter 3.3).

Problems in potable water supply will pose an ad-ditional burden on the population. As in the Western Pamir people take their drinking water directly from the rivers, reduced availability and differing water quantity will affect their well-being. Water user conflicts, which already exist between different user groups (esp. hu-man consumption and agriculture) and between vil-lages of one watershed, will become more intense. In

the Eastern Pamir, where water supply comes mainly from wells, the situation will be even worse; reduced precipitation will lower the water table, thus making

water supply (quantity and quality) even harder for the local population. An increase of waterborne diseases will be a consequence of this situation (see chapter 3.6).

Adaptation options for potable water supply- Watershed management: In the future, watershed management will become a more and more important adaptation option. It forces and supports all stakehold-ers (different user groups, villages, etc.) in a watershed to harmonise their interests and tackle common prob-lems with joint forces. It includes the protection of very sensitive areas (springs, infiltration areas, forests, etc.) and approaches for sustainable use of the water.

- Potable water governance structures: In order to man-age potable water systems, governance structures (user groups per system) should be established and strength-ened in every village. They have the function to ensure a proper water supply, administer the functions, collect the fees and organise maintenance activities.42

- Adaptation of potable water infrastructure: The in-frastructure of potable water systems which will be af-fected by water scarcity, exposed to high disaster risk or suffer from quality decline should be enhanced. Either protective measures for the existing systems should be taken or a relocation of the supply system from a reli-able source should be sought.

- Technical improvements: Energy efficient pump tech-nologies to help use water from the rivers at low costs, storage systems in order to carry water over to the dry seasons, rainwater harvesting and storage, e.g. by the installation of gutter and storage systems.

37 See: Kayumov et al.38 See: UNDP, 2007, Central Asia: Background Paper on Climate Change.39 See: Volkmer, H. (no year): Wenn die Gletscher auf dem Dach der Welt schmelzen – Anpassung an den Klimawandel als Herausfor-derung im Pamir.40 See field research: In 2010 forest in Shivoz was flooded and in Navobod mudflows occurred (both villages are in Western Pamir); in Kona Kurgan and Murghab mudflows occurred in 2010 too, but the main reason was heavy rains.41 Hagg et al.42 The Mountain Societies Development Support Programme, a Project of the Aga Kahn Foundation, already implements Water User Associations (WUA) in order to foster sustainable integrated watershed management.

Box 5 – Vulnerability factors in the water sector1. Insufficiency of potable water2. High dependency on water for agriculture and for-estry, especially in summer months3. Increase of natural disasters4. High dependency on hydropower, which is vulner-able to changes in water levels and natural disasters5. Ecosystems vulnerable to climatic changes, since they are highly adapted to the current conditions

43 See: IPCC, Fourth Assessment Report, 2007, Impacts, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation. 44 Climate proofing for development is a tool developed by GIZ. “It enables the analysis of policies, projects and programmes in partner countries with regard to the risks and opportunities that climate change poses, and helps to identify measures to tackle these changes.” (GIZ homepage http://www.gtz.de/en/themen/umwelt-infrastruktur/umweltpolitik/31288.htm).45 Field Research & Karim-Aly Kassam.46 GTZ: Arbeitspapier zur Klimaerwärmung in Zentralasien.

22 23

excavators and with cement, which makes their main-tenance too costly now for the water users. Thus, many irrigation systems no longer function.

Livestock is a key source of income; indeed, it serves as a kind of savings bank. Fodder shortages are common in years with disadvantageous weather conditions. Pas-tures in the GBAO are reportedly already facing degra-dation, due to (i) overgrazing, (ii) lack of water in some years and (iii) the cutting of teresken (see Box 9) for energy use.52 Unsustainable pasture management prac-tices lead to further degradation. There are also prob-lems of land degradation in terms of soil salinisation and erosion, leading to desertification.

The best soils for agricultural production have devel-oped in the valleys, e.g. in floodplain forests, since the

3.3 Agriculture

The vast majority of households in GBAO are en-gaged in subsistence agriculture, although some small amounts of products are produced for sale on regional markets as well.47 Agricultural production varies re-markably between the Eastern and the Western Pamirs. Due to the high altitude and the arid climate the only considerable agricultural activity possible in the East-ern Pamir is livestock breeding, whereas in the Western Pamir the growing of wheat, potato, tomato, cucum-bers and in some regions even watermelon, as well as fruit trees like apricot, apple, mulberry and walnut is very common. In addition, livestock breeding is a very important factor of agriculture in the Western Pamir

too. Despite the fact that agriculture is the predomi-nant economic pillar in GBAO, the province has not sufficient arable land to be self-reliant in terms of food48

and therefore depends highly on imports. Expenditures for food comprise over 50 per cent of the total expen-ditures of households in Tajikistan, making them ex-tremely susceptible to price shocks.49

Water availability is the limiting factor for agriculture in the Pamirs. Virtually all arable land is irrigated; due to the high evaporation and the barren rocky slopes, the soil is not capable of much water absorption and pre-cipitation immediately runs off.50 The majority of the irrigation infrastructure originates from Soviet times. It depended highly on external supplies and subsidies: diesel pumps were used and canals were maintained by

47 See: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Crop and Food Assessment Mission to Tajikistan, October 2009, p. 6f.48 Tajikistan can only meet half of its wheat consumption by its own production. See: FAO, p. 9.49 Ibid. p. 5.50 See: Hergarten p. 10.51 See: Bossenbroek, Lisa, “Gender and Irrigation Management in GBAO: The case of Spienz and Shohrizim”, GTZ 2010 and Mamady-orbekova, Shodigul, “Historical aspect of irrigation development in the Pamirs – An investigation into the irrigation system and irrigation management within different time frames in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast”, GTZ 2010.

Box 6 – Changes in irrigation water managementIrrigation water management has undergone several shifts and the current system is much characterised by its history. In general, a distinction can be made between three historical phases: before Soviet times, the Soviet times and the current situation.

- The traditional system was based on village level self-management. A local water manager known as Mirju, elected yearly by a council of elders, was in charge of distributing the water to the individual households ac-cording to a specific graph, taking into consideration the water availability and the households’ individual water needs. In general, the canals were maintained by the Mirju in cooperation with the villagers. One Mirju could also be responsible for more than one village, especially if more than one village depended on one canal.

- During the time of Soviet Union, major investments were made in the water sector of the Pamirs. Canals and pipes for irrigation and drinking water were built, hydropower stations were constructed and the water was man-aged centrally. Such investments made it possible to cultivate large areas which were otherwise not suitable for agriculture due to the lack of water. In addition to the newly constructed canals, diesel pumps were used to gain new arable land. This lead to a relative abundance of water compared to the previous situation, and the possibil-ity to use water carelessly.- As the Soviet system broke down and the subsidies from Moscow stopped, irrigation water management col-lapsed in terms of both infrastructure and management. The system practised today is a mixture of the tradi-tional pre-Soviet and Soviet systems. Most villages find their own, individual solution tailored to the very specific conditions and possibilities in every village and valley. Thus water management differs considerably from village to village.51

Box 8 – The livestock sector in GBAOLivestock in the Pamirs consists of cattle, yak and small livestock, such as goat and sheep. Whereas small live-stock can be found in the Eastern as well as in the Western Pamirs, yaks can be found only in the Eastern Pamir or in the high valleys of the Western Pamir, and cattle are to be found predominantly in the lower parts of the Western Pamir.

According to the ministry of Agriculture, Tajikistan is home to 1.0 million head of cattle, 4.6 million head of sheep and goats and 87,000 horses.55 In GBAO there are about 100,000 head of cattle and yak and about 300,000 small livestock.56 In average, one household in the Pamirs possesses 9 small stock and 2 head of cattle (livestock numbers are often biased by political and economic interests and are assumed to be higher than the official numbers).

With the breakdown of the Soviet Union the number of animals in GBAO decreased drastically. Nevertheless, the number of livestock increased since and pasture as well as fodder became insufficient. This is due to an in-sufficient management system and fodder shortages, as winter fodder had been imported during Soviet times.

In general there is a need to distinguish between summer and winter pastures. Summer pastures depend very much on the weather, as they go beyond 3,700 masl and need to be free of snow and have water, which bothvary from year to year.

52 Findings in the field research indicate that water shortages and the cutting of teresken are the most serious problems in the Eastern Pamirs, whereas in the West, the major problem on pastures is overgrazing.53 See: Hergrarten, p. 10.54 FAO, p. 9.55 Asia Plus; http://news.tj/en/news/more-one-mln-ha-pastures-remain-abandoned-tajikistan.56 State and Regional Statistics Committee of the RT, cited in Robinson et al, p. 5.

Canal from Soviet Times in KhorogIrrigation canal

slopes are mostly dry and little vegetated. Due to de-forestation (see chapter 3.4) and mismanagement, soil fertility is declining and soils are eroding.53 The use of dung as heating and cooking fuel rather than as fertil-iser, along with overuse of arable land, further acceler-ates soil degradation.

Climatic changes further challenge the agricultural sec-tor. As nearly all arable land is under irrigation, water availability is of major concern for the development of GBAO and particularly for its food security. Tak-ing into account the projected decrease of the amount of water in smaller (short to medium term) and bigger (long term) watersheds, agricultural productivity will decrease (see chapter 3.2). In addition, higher seasonal fluctuations of the water level and longer persisting time spans of droughts will hamper agriculture, leading to salinisation and amplifying desertification processes. The shift of high water levels to spring and early summer and the related decrease in summer and early autumn already affects agricultural productivity, since there is less water available in the driest months. Furthermore, arable land along the river banks will increasingly be affected by floods and is thus subject to loss of crops and soil. Heavy rains in addition will affect the alluvial fans which are also used for intensive agriculture and

Box 7 – Vulnerability factors in the agricultural sector1. Decrease in agricultural productivity2. Soil degradation and erosion3. Pasture degradation4. High dependency on irrigation5. Natural disasters6. Unpredictability of weather

24 25

strong governance structures are needed. These water organisations have the function to put in place, moni-tor and maintain the system. In addition, they have the obligation to harmonise the water use with other wa-ter organisations within a watershed, based on jointly elaborated watershed management plans.

- Adapted crops: Besides an efficient water supply, improvements on the demand side need to be put in place. Crops that need less water (other varieties or oth-er types), are drought and heat tolerant as well as pest resistant would help to adapt agriculture to the expect-ed changes. However, the already adapted crops should not be simply substituted as the conditions are very spe-cific in the Pamirs. The enhancement of endemic agro-biodiversity and crop rotation should be given priority, in connection with good agricultural practices (see be-low) in order to support auto-adaptation of crops.

- Preventive infrastructure and other measures: As most of the fields are exposed to floods, mudflows, landslides and erosion, preventive infrastructure should be intro-duced. Mudflow channels, gabion systems, terraces and retention walls are measures that have already proven their effectiveness. In addition, afforestation and refor-estation are extremely helpful to reduce the risk of the above mentioned climate-induced hazards.

- Insurance schemes/emergency funds: As the risk of losses in agriculture can only be reduced to a certain level by preventive measures, insurance schemes or emergency funds are complementary measures for re-sidual risk reduction to assure a quick recovery from harvest losses.

- Good agricultural practices: The application of good agricultural practices reduces the vulnerability of the crops as it decreases the sensitivity of the plants and increases the auto-adaptation capacity of the plants. Besides the well known methods (e.g. soil protecting cover-crops, organic fertilisation, etc.) the cultivation of different crop varieties assures the agro-biodiversity which is important for an auto-adaptation of the crop to a changing climate.

- Climate information and weather forecasting: For extension staff and farmers, information about the expected impacts of climate change and appropriate countermeasures are vital to sustain agriculture in the long term. In the short term, access to weather forecast-ing is crucial to avoid losses and to make use of favour-able climate conditions.

For livestock husbandry the projected impacts of climate change are the following: the winter pastures

located on the river banks depend very much on the availability of water, which will be limited in the long run due to deglaciation. Summer pastures, although benefiting from higher temperatures and thus having longer vegetation periods,58 are subject to droughts, de-sertification as well as wind and water erosion. They also suffer from drowning in glacial lakes as a result of increased deglaciation. Increasing rain in summer might cause problems of over-feeding. In recent years, over-feeding already led to the death of sheep. In 2009, heavy snow caused fodder shortages. Increasing unpre-dictability of weather puts an extra burden on pasture management. Yaks might suffer from an increase in temperature in the Eastern Pamir.

Adaptation options for livestock husbandry- Increase of fodder production: For the winter pastures in the valleys along the rivers, irrigation techniques can help to increase fodder production. More drought and cold tolerant fodder plants could also help to increase yields. The productivity of winter pastures could be further increased by energy efficient heating and cook-ing stoves as well as alternative heating fuels in order to reduce the amount of dung used as fuel and thus make more dung available for fertilising the pastures.

- Storage techniques: In addition to the increase of fod-der production, new innovative storage techniques can help to maintain nutrient-rich fodder.

- Sustainable pasture management: Especially for the winter pastures, but also for the less intensively used summer pastures, sustainable pasture management techniques need to be implemented by the pastoralists in order to reduce the sensitivity of pastures to climate change. Pasture rotation would help reduce the pres-sure on over-used pastures.

- Risk reduction measures: In order to reduce the risk of major stock losses due to extreme climate conditions, the introduction of different risk reduction measures are recommended. Emergency funds (see also arable land), preventive infrastructure like roofed animal shel-ters and improved veterinary services are measures that could reduce climate impacts in livestock husbandry.

- Diversification of income: The complete dependency on livestock husbandry in Eastern Pamir can be re-duced through the introduction of income alternatives, like nature tourism, regulated hunting by tourists and local people. Wildlife (see chapter 3.5) can provide a valuable alternative to livestock husbandry, especially in remote areas marginal for livestock husbandry, by providing income and animal products and at the same time being less prone to weather uncertainties and

are prone to mudflows and soil erosion. Besides the ef-fects of reduced and fluctuating water availability, high-er annual temperatures will trigger pests and increased evaporation will further heighten the risk of drought and salinisation. In addition, the crops are highly spe-cialised due to the specific climatic conditions in this mountainous region. This is evidenced by the fact that the majority of the seeds used are carried over from pre-vious harvests.54 Therefore changes in temperature may have a major impact on the fragile equilibrium.

Adaptation options for arable land- Efficient irrigation water management: A more ef-ficient water management is key to agricultural de-velopment under climate change. This includes the water supply and flow, and its use. For reliable water supply, sources need to be tapped which can provide enough water at the time it is needed in the vegetation

54 FAO, p. 9.55 Asia Plus; http://news.tj/en/news/more-one-mln-ha-pastures-remain-abandoned-tajikistan.56 State and Regional Statistics Committee of the RT, cited in Robinson et al, p. 5.57 “Kariz (also known as kareze or qanat) is an ancient underground channel irrigation system invented in Persia (Iran). It is a sloping tunnel that brings water from an underground source in a range of hills down to a dry plain at the foot of these hills. Its advantage over an open air aquaduct is that less water is lost by evaporation on its way from the hill to the plain. (…) In Tajikistan, as early as the fourth to fifth centuries BCE, a canal was constructed in the Vakhsh River Valley, near present-day Qurghonteppa (Kurgan-Tyube), which irrigated fifty square kilometres of land. Subterranean canals and reservoirs with containers made of copper (known as kariz), were extensively con-structed in the northern parts of Tajikistan in the ninth and tenth centuries CE.” Encyclopedia of Modern Asia. http://www.bookrags.com/research/kariz-irrigation-system-ema-03/#bro_copy (accessed 7 September 2011). However, in order to assess whether kariz systems would be useful to tackle the mentioned problems at reasonable prices, additional research would be necessary.

Box 9 – Teresken (Krascheninnikovia ceratoides)Teresken is a small dwarf-shrub growing mainly in the Eastern Pamir between 3500 and 4200 masl. The biomass production of this shrub is very low (0.15t/ha). It is the main plant forming the dwarf-shrub steppes and an important part of the desert vegetation patterns in this region. The slow biomass growth due to harsh climatic conditions leads to a low regeneration potential. Young shrubs have less woody biomass, hence most of the time only the older shrubs are harvested.Teresken is endemic in the Eastern Pamir. It is the most important fodder for livestock in summer, and for wild animals like Marco Polo sheep and ibex throughout the year.

Degradation of teresken and its implications for agricultureThe massive cutting of teresken causes desertification as it is the only shrub protecting the soil from erosion. Around the settlements it is already completely cut over 30 to 50 km, resulting from a 20 year period of cutting following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Further cutting would lead to complete and irreversible vanishing, with disastrous implications for peoples’ livelihoods as well as the ecosystem. In the Eastern as in the Western Pamirs, dried manure is an important additional heating fuel but is also the key fertiliser. The more manure is used as heating fuel, the less can be used for fertilisation. This leads to a decrease in soil fertility, resulting in a decrease of agricultural productivity.

58 For instance, temperatures 2-4°C higher in February and March can lead to 20 per cent decrease in winter-spring pasture productivity, a decline that is greatly exacerbated during dry spells. By contrast, in high mountain pastures, temperatures 1.5-3°C higher can increase pasture productivity by 25-50 per cent. (World Bank 2010: Key Priorities for Climate Change Adaptation).

cycle (mainly in the summer months). Besides rivers, complementary sources need to be tapped in order to guarantee a stable water supply. This implies that meth-ods of water storage (reservoirs), rainwater harvesting and traditional groundwater extraction on alluvial fans (kariz systems57) could be (re-)introduced. For ef-ficient irrigation, water channels need to be in place which do not leak, are protected against mudflows and landslides, have sedimentation basins and come with a quantity control and distribution system. The efficiency of use can be augmented by technical systems (e.g. low cost drip irrigation techniques, household water har-vesting and storage systems) and by the knowledge of the farmer about the plant’s water needs. “Energy-free” pumps (see chapter 4) could furthermore improve ir-rigation, since irrigation water in most cases is taken from the rivers. In order to manage the whole system from water supply to its use in a sustainable manner,

Bundle of Teresken

26 27

teresken (see Box 9) serves this purpose in the Eastern Pamir.Although forest resources could by now possibly meet the demand for firewood and construction timber under a sustainable management,62 the energy situation in GBAO is alarming.

Since livestock is of increasing importance, conflicts be-tween forest protection, rehabilitation and sustainable use of its resources and its unregulated use as pasture are on the rise. Pasture and fodder are often not suf-ficient for livestock; less productive soil due to the lack of natural fertiliser accelerates this problem, resulting in uncontrolled livestock grazing in the few remaining forests. As this especially happens in spring, when sum-mer pastures are still covered in snow while the valleys are already turning green, livestock mainly feeds on young shoots and thereby greatly hampers the recovery of forests. Just like illegal logging, it is the lack of an effective management and control system that makes such a level of uncontrolled livestock grazing possible.

Alluvial and floodplain forests, providing timber as well as non-timber forest products, can be found in the Western Pamir along rivers and on alluvial fans of small tributaries to the main rivers. They depend on water availability. As such tributaries fed by smaller glaciers are about to disappear or at least drastically decline in the medium term, alluvial forests will suffer from water scarcity, too. Floods, mudflows and glacial lake outburst floods on the other hand can imply significant losses

of forests and riverine erosion is a constant threat to alluvial forests. Indirect impacts of climate change on forests are expected by the increasing pressure on agri-culture (among others: reduced harvests) and on cattle breeding (less fodder production especially on winter pastures). This could lead to a steady deforestation in the quest for arable land and invasion of cattle. But also uncontrolled wood extraction for heating, cooking and

house construction reduces the natural resilience of the forest ecosystem. Climate impacts like drought, cold spells, heavy winds, insect invasions and pests thus may have more devastating consequences. In consequence, these negative impacts of climate change on alluvial and floodplain forests will harm the multiple ecological functions and the sustainable use of the forests as sup-plier of timber and non-timber products.

hardly contributing to vegetation degradation and de-sertification. The promotion of value chains for non-meat livestock products, like milk, leather and wool, could further increase the resilience of the population in the Eastern Pamir (at present most of these products, even milk, are simply discarded).

3.4 Forestry

Forests can only be found in the Western Pamir, since due to the high altitude and harsh arid climate for-ests cannot grow in the Eastern Pamir. Estimations of the current forest cover in GBAO differ between 0.15 per cent (Forestry Agency of GBAO)59 and 0.07 per cent (estimations by Hergarten based on satellite im-ages).60 Although forestry, according to these numbers, seems like a marginal sector in GBAO, it is actually very important for rural livelihoods. Forests protect the soil from erosion, stabilise mudflow-prone zones and reduce the risk of flooding. In addition, biomass is the most important source of energy since the collapse of

the Soviet Union and the forests of GBAO are one of the most important sources of heating fuel (see Figure 6). Forests provide construction wood and serve as al-ternative fodder source for livestock in spring. Besides, the biodiversity in forests is high and they are rich in fruits and berries, herbal and medicinal plants and hon-ey, which are very important for people’s livelihoods.

During the time of the Soviet Union, the forests in Ta-jikistan suffered from major deforestation for the gain of agricultural land. However, the use of forest products was controlled. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, this management and control system also collapsed. In combination with the highly subsidised heating fuel supply that suddenly stopped, this led to massive ille-gal cutting and a severe degradation of the remaining forests.61 In GBAO, the situation was even worse due to several years of total cut-off from external energy supply during the civil war. Thus, forests in GBAO are under extreme pressure and up to this day firewood is the major energy source in the Western Pamir, whereas

Figure 6 Energy consumption and supply in GBAO from 1920 until 2005

59 Forestry Agency of GBAO.60 Hergarten, p.66 .61 See: Kirchhoff et al.62 Ibid. p. 14ff. 62 Ibid. p. 14ff.

Source: Hoeck, T., Droux, R., Breu, T., Hurni, H., Maselli D.: Rural energy consumption and land degradation in a post-Soviet setting – an example from the west Pamir mountains in Tajikistan, Centre for Development and Environmenr (CDE), University of Bern, in Energy for Sustainable Development, Volume XI, No 1, March 2007. p.49

Typical Western Pamir floodplain forest in good condition, Shokhdara valley

Box 10 – Vulnerability factors in the forestry sector1. Forests are under high pressure2. Forest use conflicts (agriculture vs. livestock grazing vs. wood production)3. Water scarcity4. Natural disasters (mainly floods and riverine ero-sion)5. Pests

28 29

gion. Due to private and community based initiatives, numbers have recovered in recent years (more than 200 in GBAO).65

While most hunting of meat for subsistence and for trade by local people in the Pamirs is illegal and hunt-ing practices are often unsustainable, its impact on food supply in remote parts of the Eastern Pamir, as well as on wildlife populations, is considerable. In areas with sufficient wildlife populations, game makes up a high percentage of local meat consumption. In Murghab and Khorog, game meat can occasionally be found on the black market. Unsustainable illegal hunting chal-lenges sustainable and more profitable options such as trophy hunting and tourism. Thus, the potential of wild animals and in particular of the mountain ungu-lates as land-use option is not yet fully used, and is fur-ther challenged by poaching, habitat degradation, land-use conflicts, inadequate legal framework and climate change.

Climate change has direct and indirect impacts on wild animals as well as domestic animals. Extreme weather events, in particular, unusually high snow, develop-ment of ice crusts on snow cover, heavy rainfalls during the early summer months or droughts can increase the

mortality of the entire population or of certain sex and age classes, e.g. of older males after the rut, of pregnant females in late winter or of newborn young animals. Indirect impacts can include the change of habitat conditions, particularly in terms of composition and productivity of vegetation. In the Eastern Pamir, veg-etation productivity on most valuable winter grazing grounds for Marco Polo sheep depends on water from snow fields and glaciers during the summer season. Climate change may reduce water flow in these areas and consequently reduce the available fodder mass. Changes in seasonal patterns of plant growth, particu-larly due to higher temporal variability, can challenge the reproduction and survival of wild animals. Early or late plant growth can lead to fodder shortages, which particularly affects young animals during critical stages of their growth.

Adaptation options for wildlifeDirect interventions for the adaptation of wildlife to the impacts of climate change are almost impossible. The most feasible approach to support adaptation is therefore to reduce factors threatening the viability of wildlife populations:

- Sustainable use of wildlife: Management systems need to be in place, which contain elements of monitoring, protection, supportive measures and regulation of use. The use of wild animals needs to be based on the moni-toring of population numbers, taking into considera-tion climate change impacts (especially on reproduc-tion and mortality) and trends at local level (adaptive management). Local people and their communities must play a crucial role as managers of wildlife. By this direct involvement, sustainable use of wildlife becomes of direct economic interest for them and will be alterna-tive or complementary to other land-use options.

- Integration with and regulation of competing land uses: The integration and regulation of competing land uses, in particular, livestock grazing and fuel wood col-lection, will increasingly become a key factor as climate change affects the habitats of wild animals as well as grazing grounds and biomass available for fuel (see

Adaptation options for forestry- Sustainable forest management: A sustainable forest management reduces the sensitivity of this ecosystem to climate change. This includes protecting the forest from over-exploitation by planned forestry measures, including regulated wood extraction and prevention of grazing especially during spring. The main adaptation measure will be a reform of the national legal and insti-tutional framework governing forestry, which ensures tenure rights and ownership by the forest users and stimulates their interest in and responsibility for forest development. The sustainable use of forestry resources must be legalised and corresponding incentives must be given (see box 11). A very promising approach, which also fosters local economic development, is Joint For-est Management (JFM). It is based on the involvement of the local population in protection and rehabilitation measures as well as on a sustainable use of forest re-sources. For the rehabilitation of severely degraded for-est plots, the Saving Book Approach was successfully tested. It helps to stimulate initial investment by local tenants, when no income from forest resources can be generated (see Box 11).

- Watershed management: A minimal flow of the rivers is essential for the growth of the floodplain and allu-vial forests. In order to guarantee this minimum flow, a sustainable forest management should be linked to an integral watershed management which takes into ac-count the requirements of farming, livestock breeding, wildlife and also of the forest ecosystems.

- Irrigation of forests: The climate sensitivity of the for-est ecosystem can be reduced by the installation of wa-ter harvesting and storage systems as well as irrigation techniques that provide the forests with water also in times of drought.

- Energy efficient technologies: More efficient heat-ing systems, better thermal insulation of houses and more efficient stoves are some examples of how wood extraction can be reduced. Another alternative is the reduction of firewood as source of energy for heating and cooking, e.g. by introducing solar stoves and solar panels for hot water. The pressure on firewood can be reduced thereby and the dependency on this climate sensitive source of energy can be lowered.

3.5 Wildlife management

Wild animals are an integral element of natural ecosys-tems and are very important for their functionality and resilience. Ecological functions of animals are diverse and include selective consumption of plants, thereby influencing the composition of the vegetation cover, distribution of seeds, regulation of herbivore popula-tions by predators and impacts on soil structure.

In GBAO, wild mountain ungulates are the most important animals in the context of sustainable land use as they are attractive for tourists and can be used sustainably for trophy as well as for domestic hunt-ing. Compared to nature tourism in the broad sense, hunting tourism has only a small number of clients per year, but the financial turnover per tourist and in to-tal is significant.63 The population of Pamir argali or

Marco Polo sheep (Ovis ammon polii) in the Eastern Pamir of Tajikistan is the largest over its distribution range (about 24,000).64 The second wild sheep species in Tajikistan, the urial (Ovis vignei), is already almost or completely extirpated in the Pamirs. The Asiatic ibex (Capra sibirica) is widespread and, after a sharp decline caused by uncontrolled poaching during the years of civil unrest, populations seem to be stable or recover-ing; however, no population data are available for larger areas. The fourth species of mountain ungulates is the screw-horned goat or markhor (Capra falconeri hept-neri), found in Tajikistan in a distinct subspecies. This endangered species inhabits only a small area in Darvaz district of GBAO and in the neighbouring Khatlon re-

63 During the 2010/2011 hunting season the Government of Tajikistan earned more than 3.6 million Somoni (equivalent to some 768,000 US dollars) from the sale of permits for trophy hunting on Marco Polo sheep alone (see: Asia-Plus, 19 July 2011) . According to official information 60% of these earnings are spent at the level of the district where the hunting took place (See: Letter by CEP to US Fish and Wildlife Service, 15 September 2010). In addition private companies managing the hunting grounds have had incomes in a similar range which are largely spent for local services to hunting tourists and for protection and monitoring of wildlife populations.64 See: Michel, S. and R. Muratov. 2010. Survey of Marco Polo sheep and other mammal species in the Eastern Pamirs (Republic of Ta-jikistan, GBAO). GTZ, Dushanbe, Tajikistan. On www.wildlife-tajikistan.org.65 See: Baldus R. and Michel, S. (2011): What does CITES mean for an African or Central Asian village? Some experiences from Tanzania and Tajikistan. In IUCN-SSC Occassional Papers Series (in press).

Box 11 – Vulnerability factors in the wildlife sector1. Wildlife populations are under high pressure from poaching and habitat destruction2. Use conflicts (agriculture vs. livestock grazing vs. sustainable use of wild animals)3. Changes in composition of vegetation, reduced productivity and seasonal shifting of vegetation period 4. Natural disasters (mainly “dzhut” (deep snow with ice crust) and drought)5. Diseases

Box 12 – Ecosystems and climate change adap-tation – the case of sustainable wildlife manage-mentClimatic factors have the same or even greater impacts on domestic animals which are less well adapted to the harsh mountain environment and are less mobile for avoiding unfavourable environmental conditions. Experts of the Nature Protection Team, a Tajik NGO, observed in spring 2009 in the Afghan-Wakhan (bor-dering the Tajik Pamirs) that urial were in obviously good body condition and had a high rate of survival of lambs after a snowy winter which led to heavy losses of domestic livestock and a very poor state of the sur-viving animals. Due to co-evolution in the context of their ecosystems and natural density regulation mech-anisms, natural populations of wild animals do not cause land degradation or desertification, provided that their numbers are not artificially increased be-yond the ecosystem capacity. Thus, beyond their in-trinsic value, the conservation of viable wildlife popu-lations and their habitats is of outmost importance for preserving future land-use options under changing conditions. The sustainable management of wildlife conserves the functionality and resilience of ecosys-tems and provides additional options for their use. A sustainable management of wildlife can thus increase the adaptive capacity of ecosystems (and their biodi-versity), has the potential to increase natural resilience and hence contribute to climate change adaptation.

Asiatic ibex (Capra sibirica)

30 31

and crop variety is low. A more diverse and climate re-sistant agriculture helps to assure a balanced and secure nutrition base for the population in GBAO. - Improvement of health services: Besides the preven-tion of climate-induced diseases, an improved health service will be necessary to cope with the additional burden of climate change induced diseases. It is espe-cially the accessibility, but also the quality of health ser-vices that need to be improved, particularly in Khorog and the district centres. Improvement of the transport to Dushanbe and Osh, where better equipped hospitals can be found, would further be necessary to improve medical services.72

- Emergency health service: In case of natural disas-ters, the health service needs to fall back on stand-by emergency equipment and staff that can be mobilised quickly. These additional resources should be built up on different levels – on the community level, the mu-nicipal, the provincial and the national level and com-plement each other.

Transport:Road and air traffic are the most important modes of transport in GBAO. But transport and its infrastruc-ture are in bad condition. Tajikistan’s airlines and the Dushanbe airport have improved in recent years but still do not meet international standards. Highways are often in bad condition too. While there have been big reconstruction projects, these are barely undertaken in the most vulnerable parts, usually only on prestigious roads. As Tajikistan is a landlocked country with the next port 2,000 kilometres away, these conditions are hampering trade and economic development.73 This is even more true for GBAO, as (i) the natural barriers to infrastructure are much higher, (ii) the existing in-frastructure and its maintenance was even more subsi-dised during the Soviet era and (iii) there are relatively few people (approximately 3 per cent of the country’s population) living in almost half of the country’s terri-tory, making it not a priority area for investments. Air-craft and road traffic are the only means of transport in or to the Pamirs. The air route Dushanbe – Khorog – Dushanbe was just recently cancelled, as it was not profitable, and it remains unclear if it will resume ser-vices.74 It flew according to a daily schedule, but due to the dependence on very good weather conditions it was increasingly unreliable and seasonally unstable. Thus, roads are the most important transport facility in GBAO. Their condition is mostly bad and they are very vulnerable to weather conditions. There are two routes, which have to use the same road for a long part, con-

necting Khorog, the capital of GBAO, to the rest of Ta-jikistan; one crosses a pass, meaning that its accessibility depends on the absence of snow. This route is open only in the summer months. The other includes some river-crossings, which are not always crossable in spring and early summer, depending on water levels. The roads are prone to mudflows, rockfalls and avalanches. This often leads to cut-offs from the rest of Tajikistan, which can last for several days or weeks. Another highway leads to Osh in Kyrgyzstan and one to Kashgar in the People’s Republic of China, both of which climb high passes and are sensitive to snow in winter. The latter is closed several months every winter.

The roads within GBAO are even more sensitive to weather conditions and water levels, and are always threatened by landslides, flooding and rockfall. The roads themselves are in bad condition, not having been maintained substantially since the Soviet Union. Those transport conditions in GBAO lead to bad pasture management (see chapter 3.3) and bad trade and eco-nomic conditions. GBAO is not self-reliant in terms of

food security (see above), therefore transport facilities are crucial for the Pamirs’ population in view of their high dependence on external supplies.Natural disasters will increasingly hamper access to GBAO and intra-regional transport. Mudflows and landslides caused by heavy rain will interrupt roads,

chapters 3.4 and 3.5). Requirements, regulations and taxation by the state have large impacts on what land-use form can be competitive. They need to be applied to retain a diversity of land-use options in the long term and take into consideration current monitoring data, such as population counts etc. (which should include impacts of climate change, as mentioned above).- Trans-boundary cooperation: Wildlife populations are often mobile and cross national boundaries. Dif-fering management systems in neighbouring countries, poaching in border areas and erection of border fences can thus cause decreases of population numbers and even challenge their survival. Under the circumstances of climate change, mobility of wild animals over large ranges can become a vital requirement for their fitness (see Box 12). The inclusion of argali in Annex II of the CMS adopted by the 10th Conference of Parties of the convention, based on a proposel submitted by Tajik-istan and Kazakhstan and the development and imple-mentation of a Memorandum of Understanding and a joint Action Plan of the range states can support the natural resilience of populations, especially in the bor-der areas between Tajikistan, Afghanistan, China and Kyrgyzstan.

3.6 Other sectors

Health:Healthcare in Tajikistan suffers from a chronic shortage of funding, equipment, and skilled personnel. Hospi-tals are usually situated in urban areas, whereas in rural areas there are only poorly equipped healthcare centres. Most of the funding is distributed to the major hospi-tals, which leads to a particular lack of funding in rural areas. Increasing dependence of the healthcare sector on unofficial payments and increasing prices in the better equipped hospitals makes healthcare increasingly unaf-fordable for the poor.66 Infant mortality in Tajikistan remains high67 with about 54 of 1,000 children dying under one year in 2008.68 In 2010 an outbreak of polio occurred again in Tajikistan.69

In GBAO, the problems are aggravated by the poor infrastructure. The only major hospital, situated in Khorog, is badly equipped and all major surgery needs to be done in Dushanbe. Buildings are in bad condi-tion, equipment is outdated, and drugs are insufficient-ly available. The sparsely populated area further limits access and availability to adequate facilities and leads to a particular lack of skilled personnel. Due to irregular

salaries, which are even low for Tajikistan, well-educat-ed and motivated staff is leaving to work with interna-tional organisations or abroad. Due to the limited ac-cess to hospitalisation, the self-treatment and the use of indigenous knowledge about medicinal plants are still widespread in the Pamirs,70 increasing the dependence of rural livelihoods on natural resources.

The most common diseases in GBAO are: acute res-piratory infections, digestive organ infections, heart problems, trauma/injuries and kidney diseases.71

Climate change will put an extra burden on the already precarious health situation. Heat waves may cause high blood pressure and thus heart attacks. In addition, wa-terborne diseases could occur more often as the water quality decreases with increased temperatures and the lack of fresh water. Food security will also be at risk in years of bad harvest. Malnutrition will mainly be a problem for young children, elderly people and peo-ple with disabilities since they are the most vulnerable groups in society. Climate-induced disasters, which are set to increase in frequency and intensity, will imply an additional challenge for the rudimentary health services in GBAO.

Adaptation options for health- Improvement of potable water supply services: As waterborne diseases are projected to increase under climate change, a reliable potable water supply service with stable availability and good quality are key issues, especially for the rural population where potable water availability and quality are already an issue.

- Prevention: Metal roofs and gutter systems to prevent houses from moisture (due to more rain) and thus pre-vent diseases (especially lung diseases like tuberculosis). Educational programmes on these aspects need to be launched.

- Food security / Safe and balanced nutrition base: As most farmers in marginal areas are subsistence farmers, their harvests are critical for their auto-consumption

66 See: International Monetary Fund, p. 40.67 See: International Monetary Fund, p. 41.68 See: Index Mundi, “Infant and child mortality – Tajikistan”, data from the United Nations Statistics Department, http://www.index-mundi.com/tajikistan/infant-and-child-mortality.html (accessed 1 April 2011).69 By July 2010 the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Tajikistan counted 430 cases of polio. See: World Health Organization, Global Alert and Response – Polio in Tajikistan – Update; http://www.who.int/csr/don/2010_07_23/en/index.html (accessed 1 April 2011). 70 See: Kassam, K.-A.; Karamkhudoeva, M; Ruelle, M; Baumflek, M; “Medicinal Plant Use and Health Sovereignty – Findings from the Tajik and Afghan Pamirs”, p. 820, in Human Ecology – An Interdisciplinary Journal, Volume 38, Number 6; 2010.71 Ibid. p. 822.

Box 13 – Vulnerability factors in the healthcare sector1. Increased climatic stress2. New diseases3. Potable water shortages4. Food security at risk

72 The Aga Khan Development Network is already working on improving both aspects – the medical services in Khorog and the district centres as well as the transport to Dushanbe and Osh.73 Poverty Reduction Strategy, p. 32.74 See: Asia Plus; Tajik national air carrier suspends Dushanbe-Khorog flight because of its unprofitableness, under: http://www.news.tj/en/news/tajik-national-air-carrier-suspends-dushanbe-khorog-flight-because-its-unprofitableness (accessed 23.July.2011).

Box 14 – Vulnerability factors in the transport sector

1. Natural disasters2. Lack of maintenance funds

The Pamir Highway (M41) has to be cleared from rock-falls and avalances regularly

32 33

sides, flood waves, avalanches and rockfalls are climate driven disasters threatening the settlements. Further-more, in the Western Pamir the houses are sensitive to excessive rain, which affects the clay plastering and/or the clay roofs. In the Eastern Pamir the risks of flood waves and damage to houses due to heavy rain are even bigger. Although precipitation is much less in general, the shift from snow in winter to rain in summer and the increase of heavy rain events affect the houses severely. This is due to the fact that rain was very unusual in the Eastern Pamir, where heavy rain did not occur at all. Thus houses are not constructed to resist rain, as this was not at all necessary until recently.

Adaptation options for settlements- Improvement of houses: In order to make clay plas-tered/roofed houses resistant against the increased fre-quency and intensity of rain, metal roofs and gutter systems (which should be combined with rainwater harvesting and storage systems in order to also tackle the water problems mentioned in chapter 3.2) are nec-essary.76

- Preventive measures: For the location of settlements, the same applies as to threatened infrastructure. Set-tlements at risk from climate change impacts need to take appropriate measures in order to reduce the risk of floods, mudflows, avalanches and heavy rain. Gabion systems, retention walls, relocation of extremely threat-ened settlements or the construction of impermeable roofs that overlay, gutter systems (which also can be used for rainwater harvesting and thus help solve water problems too) and thus protect the walls are examples of good practices.

- Afforestation: of slopes and valleys above settlements to protect against floods in villages.

- Early warning systems: The installation of early warn-ing systems for floods, mudflows and lake outbursts is a risk reduction measure that cannot prevent the set-tlements from being flooded; however, lives and assets can be saved.

- Disaster preparedness systems: Well trained emer-gency teams with appropriate equipment are able to search for missing people, rescue lives in disaster situa-tions, treat injuries, and carry out damage assessments in order to quickly request external support for disaster relief, recovery and reconstruction.

3.7 Summary of adaptation options

The key for successful adaptation to climate change in GBAO is the sustainable management of threatened

natural resources (water, forest, pasture, arable land, wildlife).

This comprises:- techniques that enhance efficiency of use of natural resources – e.g. drip irrigation techniques, thermal in-sulation of houses and efficient stoves;

- techniques that substitute natural resources under pressure – e.g. instead of firewood solar techniques can be used for heating of water;

- measures to enhance or stabilise the output of natu-ral resources – e.g. rainwater harvesting, afforestation/reforestation, resilient crops, irrigation, fodder storage techniques, regulation of pasture use, sustainable use of wildlife;

- measures that safeguard a high diversity of land and nature resource use options and thus provide for a high adaptation potential;

- approaches that allow a broad dissemination of above mentioned technologies – e.g. microloans for thermal insulation; and

- governance structures that plan and control the use and protection of natural resources.

Other options that complement the sustainable man-agement of natural resources in order to adapt the live-lihoods of the local population can be clustered in the following two groups:

- Knowledge management – information on climate change, weather forecasting and early warning systems;

- Preparedness capacities – measures to quickly react on and overcome disastrous situations, e.g. insurance schemes, emergency funds, preparedness plans, emer-gency staff and equipment.

rising water levels due to enhanced deglaciation and intensive rain events will wash away bridges and riv-erside tracks. The lack of accessibility and the high maintenance costs will further reduce the prospects for economic development of the region. This is especially relevant for the Western Pamir, where the topography is characterised by big differences in elevation that roads have to surmount. The problems in the transport sec-tor pose an additional burden to the health sector, as serious illness can only be treated in Dushanbe or Osh.

Adaptation options for transport- Preventive and resistant infrastructure: The existing transport infrastructure needs to be analysed in terms of its risk of being harmed by climate change impacts. The bridges in Western Pamir are especially subject to destruction in the near future. Landslide-prone road sections should also be stabilised (e.g. by afforestation of slopes) so that heavy rains do not interrupt road con-nections. For new infrastructure projects, it is crucial that they are implemented in a resistant manner, so that climate change impacts will not have an impact on them. The integration of a climate check for all infra-

structure within the process of strategic environmental impact assessment is therefore highly recommended.75

Settlements:In the settlements sector, there is a need to distinguish between the Eastern and the Western Pamirs: in the deep steep valleys of the Western Pamir settlements are usually at the alluvial cones of side-valleys, where smaller creeks or rivers flow into the main river. This is due to the limited space for settlement and lack of water and arable land. In the Eastern Pamir, due to the high-plateau relief, settlements have more space and are therefore more widely spread. Settlements are usually at rivers or creeks in order to have access to irrigation water. In both the Eastern and the Western Pamirs, settlements are usually a mix of traditional and Soviet buildings. Soviet buildings are to be found mostly in bigger settlements, mainly in the centres of Khorog, Ishkashim, Roshtkala, Murghab, Rushan and Khalai Khumb, whereas traditional houses are the majority in the villages.

The traditional Pamiri houses have many architectural advantages, e.g. in relation to earthquake resistance, and can be well equipped, depending on the household income of the family. A majority of the rural popula-tion in the Eastern and Western Pamirs though lives in houses of poor condition. Energy efficiency of all buildings is poor and not adapted to the harsh climatic conditions. Public buildings are mainly in bad condi-tion, especially buildings in the social sector (significant in schools), due to a chronic lack of funding. The bad condition of houses also leads to high energy consump-tion of households (see chapter 3.4).

Climate change already has a significant impact on the housing sector. Especially in Western Pamir where the settlements are located near the riverfront, high flood waves and mudflows are increasing risks. They can be

induced by glacial lake outburst floods or by an outburst of a lake backed-up by a landslide. Still in memory of the people is the glacial lake outburst above the village of Dasht 2002, which killed 28 people and destroyed many houses. The recent events of flooding in Bartang valley in summer 2010, which destroyed several kilo-metres of road and various houses as well as mudflows in Murghab in the same year which destroyed several houses, are already first signs of what might come. Be-

Box 16 – Vulnerability factors in the settlements sector:

1. Natural disasters2. Heavy precipitation

75 Various organisations, both governmental and non-governmental, such as FOCUS Humanitarian Assistance, an Organization of the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN) and AKDN, are already trying to tackle this problem. Several investors are planning new roads; it is crucial to plan and implement those construction projects in a resistant way, although their priority is to promote trade routes. 76 In many villages people have already started to adapt by installing metal roofs.

Box 15 - The Pamiri House

Traditional Pamiri House

Typical roof-hatch window of the traditional Pamiri houses.

34 35

iii. Promotion of value chains for forest products; in order to provide incentives for sustainable management of the forest plots, value chains for forest products are promoted, thus generating income for the tenants;

iv. Strengthening of forest governance: the local State Forestry Agency of GBAO is supported in financially self-sustaining governance and sustainable manage-ment;

v. Forestry sector reform: the project supports the pro-cess of national forestry sector reform, which is to make sustainable management of forests a part of the national forestry regulations, and works with the State Forestry Agency on the national level to promote nation-wide implementation of sustainable forestry management.

Contribution of sustainable forest management to cli-mate change adaptation:

The project thus contributes to improving the manage-ment and governance of the forest resource. Sustainable forest management tackles increasing pressure on forest resources and increases the resilience of the forests. It reduces the pressure on energy sources – hydropower, fossil fuels, biomass – by sustainably producing fire-wood. Thus the pressure on ecosystems is decreased, which contributes to their resilience (the approach also decreases teresken degradation as it provides as alterna-tive, affordable energy source, decreasing the amount of dung burnt and thus contributing to soil fertility). Furthermore, it tackles the threat of limited water avail-ability for forest growth and supports the rehabilitation of irrigation channels for forests. Afforestation/refor-estation helps protect the soil from erosion, stabilising mudflow-prone zones and reducing the risk of flood-ing. Forest management further has the potential to improve a safe supply of potable water.

Sustainable forest management thus contributes to increasing the resilience of the ecosystem forest, but also on other ecosystems, such as the Eastern Pamir’s teresken steppe, as it decreases pressure on teresken. It further increases the resilience of people’s livelihoods as it provides them with heating fuel, non-timber forest products and income possibilities. It also has the po-tential to protect infrastructure, agriculture and settle-ments from erosion.

Sustainable forest management furthermore contrib-utes to climate change mitigation, combating desertifi-cation and conserving biodiversity (see: Annex I – Rel-evance of adaptation options in GBAO and synergies with environmental conventions and climate change mitigation).There are options to complement the present pro-gramme activities with regard to the adaptation of for-estry management to climate change:

- Take into account climate change (esp. water avail-ability) in the management plans, i.e. the future devel-opment and impact of climate parameters (e.g. possibly vanishing glaciers, snow cover, etc. i.e. where does the water come from, how reliable is the source);

- Combine and harmonise forestry management plans with an integral watershed management that takes cli-mate change into account;

- Prevent forests from riverine erosion through the in-stallation of gabions;

- Spread information on climate change impacts on for-estry and on possible adaptation options to stakehold-ers;

- Integrate pasture management in JFM or closely co-operate with pasture management in order to prevent conflicts between forest users and livestock grazing;

- Agro-forestry in response to increasing pressure on agriculture, resulting in increased pressure on forests;

- Integrate climate change into the development of na-tional forest policy (see: Box 17)

b. Innovative TechnologiesThe dissemination of energy-efficient measures aims at reducing pressure on natural resources. Energy efficient windows, stoves, pumps and solar water heaters are developed, adapted to the local conditions and stand-ardised. Zindagi, the newly founded cooperative of craftsmen, procures high quality material for the pro-duction of standardised technologies, provides quality management and organises the sale of the final prod-ucts. As part of the approach, the microfinance prod-uct “Warm-Comfort” was developed in close coopera-tion with the local microfinance organisation (MFO) MADINA, which is now already being disseminated beyond GBAO’s borders and implemented in different regions of Tajikistan by other MFO’s.

The GIZ Regional Programme “Sustainable Use of Natural Resources in Central Asia” in GBAO aims to reduce the degradation of natural resources and im-prove the livelihoods of the rural population. There-fore, it focuses its strategy on three complementary components: (a) Sustainable Forest Management, (b) Innovative Technologies (comprising energy and water efficient technologies: insulation of houses; energy ef-ficient stoves; water heaters; pumps; water storage tech-nologies), and (c) Sustainable Wildlife Management.

Within these components the following outputs are achieved:

a. Sustainable Forest ManagementThe rehabilitation of alluvial and floodplain forests is achieved by supporting the State Forestry Agency of GBAO with the implementation of a Joint Forest Man-agement approach (JFM). Local, formerly illegal forest users are provided with legal user rights in the form of long-term leasing contracts. In addition, detailed man-agement plans developed in a participatory process set out the rights and obligations for forest use and reha-bilitation, thus creating incentives to invest in rehabili-

tation of forest resources. The development of market-ing structures for forest products creates the base for the sustainability of the system for the Forestry Agency and the users respectively. Severely or entirely degraded forest plots are rehabilitated using the Savings Book Approach (SBA). This involves compensating work on “deserted plots” by paying an amount of compensation that drops from year to year, using a savings book. On the national level, the Forestry Agency is supported by the GIZ Forestry Sector Reform project in Dushanbe. Best practices from GBAO, such as JFM, are dissemi-nated to other districts of Tajikistan and reform of the national forestry sector is supported.

Activities of programme component (a) comprise:

i. Reforestation/afforestation: degraded forest plots are rehabilitated by JFM or SBA, depending on the de-gree of degradation;

ii. Protection, including irrigation: reforested/affor-ested plots are provided with irrigation and fencing as protection against uncontrolled livestock grazing;

4 Contribution of the GIZ project to adapt the management of natural resources to climate change

Local forest tennants fencing their plot

36 37

Activities of programme component (b) comprise:

i. Thermal insulation: Within the project double glazed windows and properly closing doors, as well as insulation with locally available as well as imported materials (insulation of floors, ceilings and walls) are developed. Local craftsmen are trained in production and installation of the technologies.

ii. Heating/cooking improvements: Energy-efficient heating and cooking stoves as well as heat exchangers are developed. These are adapted to the local needs and habits. Local craftsmen are trained in the production of the stoves.

iii. Solar water heaters: Solar water heaters are devel-oped and produced by local craftsmen.

iv. Pump technologies: Two types of pumps are devel-oped, using only the energy of water, with no addition-al energy input necessary (swim pump and ram pump). Local craftsmen are trained to produce the pumps.

v. Rainwater harvesting: Gutter systems are locally produced and are being disseminated by the project.

vi. Water storage: Different water storage technolo-gies are developed and are now being produced by local craftsmen.

vii. Dissemination: In order to increase the impact of the above mentioned technologies, dissemination mechanisms are in place; the microfinance product “Warm-Comfort”, developed for thermal insulation measures, comprises a package of individual consul-tation for every household according to its income and the condition of the house to be insulated. Also included is a one-year microloan in order to make it affordable for almost all households in GBAO; direct marketing is supported by the cooperative of craftsmen Zindagi; and a “Village Resource Person” disseminates the technologies in remote villages.

Contribution of (b) to climate change adaptation:

The innovative technologies listed above reduce the pressure on wood and teresken as primary sources of energy, thus contributing to the protection of forests and teresken steppes. In addition, dependency on the highly climate-sensitive hydropower resource is reduced by using decentralised and partly renewable sources of energy. Manure is saved as heating fuel and thus made available for fertilisation, which increases soil fertility and improves agricultural productivity. The reduction in use of teresken increases pasture productivity and soil protection in the Eastern Pamir. Furthermore, ir-rigation pumps and water storage technologies improve irrigation and provide the possibility to carry water over

to the dry seasons. Rainwater harvesting also protects houses against heavy rain, as it protects the clay plas-tering. Furthermore, the insulation of houses improves the micro-climate inside the houses and contributes to the population’s health. Innovative technologies save money and working time for the rural population, thus increasing their adaptive capacity.

The Innovative Technologies component of the pro-gramme contributes to mitigation of climate change, as emissions of greenhouse gases are minimised by using energy more efficiently, to combat desertification, as it reduces the pressure on biomass (especially teresken, whose degradation is a major cause of desertification in the Eastern Pamir) and to conserve biodiversity, as it re-duces pressure on natural resources (see: Annex I – Rel-evance of adaptation options in GBAO and synergies with environmental conventions and climate change mitigation).

c. Sustainable Wildlife ManagementThe Sustainable Wildlife Management component is implemented by a consortium of the Consulting companies Deutsche Forstservice GmbH (DFS), AFC

Box 17 – Joint Forest Management & national forestry sector reform

Joint Forest Management:Joint Forest Management is a multi-level approach aimed at building trust between the State Forestry Enter-prise and the local population to assure sustainable forest management. Sustainable use of the forest ecosystem is achieved by stimulating investment in rehabilitation. Former illegal forest users are provided with legal user rights on the basis of lease contracts, and are, according to individual management plans, responsible for the pro-tection and development of “their” plots. The harvested products from the plots are divided between the tenants and the Forestry Enterprise, so both parties have a mutual interest in the sustainable management scheme. Joint Forest Management is a bottom-up approach, in which local actors participate in decision-making about the strategy and the selection of priorities to be pursued on their area. Capacity development and involvement of lo-cal and regional governmental structures initiate a modernisation of the institutional and regulatory framework.

Elements of Joint Forest Management:The different elements of Joint Forest Management are inter-linked and are prerequisites for the following func-tions:

- To lay the groundwork for sustainable forest management, detailed contracts between the Forest Enterprise and private tenants are concluded. The “contract on Joint Forest Management” is a legally binding document, cover-ing a period of 20 years (with automatic extension), including the rights and responsibilities of both.

- As a next step, management plans and annual plans are elaborated jointly to ensure a sustainable management of the plots.

- With a civil society structure representing the rights and obligations of the tenants, the aim is to consolidate a counterweight to the Forestry Enterprise.

- In order to fulfil the requirements of the management and annual plans, tenants receive technical consultancy from the Forestry Enterprise.

National forestry sector reform:In 2005, the National Forestry Programme (NFP) 2006-2015 was formulated by the Government of the Re-public of Tajikistan. Among ambitious reforestation activities, it stated that by 2006 a new national forestry code was to be elaborated and adopted. However, the new forestry code could only be adopted in June 2011, after significant expert consultation by UNDP, GIZ as well as other development partners. At all events, the discussion process leading to the adoption and the final legal act can be seen as a change of paradigm towards a modern forest management and sustainable use of forest resources. The principles of sustainable forestry and les-sons learnt from Joint Forest Management testing in Gorno-Badakhshan found their way into this basic legal act. Currently the State Forest Agency, with support from GIZ, is elaborating a national forest policy for Tajikistan. This policy can be understood as a statement of intended direction developed to guide present and future ac-tions and decisions. The proposed policy is documented and implemented through suitable ‘policy instruments’, which include strategic policy statements, legislation, regulations (guidelines), strategies, directives, etc.

The current policy draft argues that investments in forest establishment are urgently needed so that the state forest offices can fulfil the tasks originally assigned to them, in particular the sustainable management of the country’s forests. Forestry can potentially become a pillar of rural economies.

For this, however, foreign investments are indispensable.

Land tenure, the process of forest land allocation and subsequent use need to be radically overhauled if the country is to benefit from foreign investments in the forestry sector. The de-facto timber harvesting ban is a poor substitute for more effective management of the forest resources. All this results in an ‘open access’ scenario which is evident all over the country and is destroying the last remaining natural forests.

Box 18 - Examples of innovative technologies

Familiy in front of their newly insulated house in the (Alichur, Eastern Pamir)

Solar water heaters

Ram pump

38 39

The programme component further contributes to combating desertification and conserving biodiversity (see: Annex I – Relevance of adaptation options in GBAO and synergies with environmental conventions and climate change mitigation).

There are options to complement the present pro-gramme activities with regard to the adaptation of wild-life management to climate change:

- Take into account climate change (esp. vegetation productivity and fodder availability) in the manage-ment plans, i.e. the future development and impact of climate parameters on fodder resources;

- Combine and align wildlife management plans with integrated watershed management (in particular live-stock grazing management) that takes climate change into account;

- Spread information on climate change impacts on wildlife management, livestock grazing and pasture lands and on possible adaptation options to stakehold-ers;

- Integrate pasture management in wildlife manage-ment or closely cooperate with pasture management in order to prevent user conflicts between wildlife man-agement, nature tourism, hunting and livestock graz-ing.

Consultants International and Central Asia Interna-tional Consulting (CAICo), collaborating with NPT. The implementation is in close partnership with the Committee on Environmental Protection under the Government of Tajikistan and its subordinated agencies as well as with the Institutes of the Academy of Scienc-es. In model areas, the rehabilitation, conservation and use of wildlife populations are supported through the development of community based organisations which assume rights and responsibilities for wildlife manage-ment. The development of an appropriate contract template was supported and finally the State Agency on Forestry and Hunting concluded these contracts on a mid-term basis with the local organisations of hunt-ers. Where local people have already established appro-priate organisations and hunting rights are assigned, management plans are developed including assessment of the resource, development potential and necessary activities for sustainable wildlife management. Initial investments in basic equipment made an immediate start of protection and monitoring activities possible. The marketing of nature tourism and trophy hunting is supported and the definition of mechanisms for benefit sharing is facilitated.

The assessment of wildlife populations in the Eastern Pamir provided the Government of Tajikistan with the opportunity to re-open trophy hunting on Marco Polo sheep and to convince the US Fish and Wildlife Service to allow the import of hunting trophies to the United States. Population assessments of markhor have become a starting point for considerations to allow limited tro-phy hunts on this species and for the European Union and the United States of America to take into consid-eration the issuing of import permits for trophies ob-tained in the frame of the programme.

On the national level, the development of an appropri-ate legal framework for hunting and wildlife manage-ment is supported and the issues are included in the debates on other relevant legal documents (such as for-est code and pasture law). The process of drafting a law on hunting and wildlife management started in June 2011. The accession of Tajikistan to the Convention on International Trade on Endangered Species of Fauna and Flora (CITES) is expected in 2012.

Activities of programme component (b) comprise:

i. Development of sustainable wildlife management in model areas: within the project, on-the-ground activities focus on five model areas – three in GBAO and two in Khatlon region. Development of suitable local institutions, facilitation of the assignment of user rights and responsibilities, elaboration and agreement of management plans, wildlife monitoring, support of protection activities, marketing of nature tourism and

trophy hunting and training on its implementation are among the key activities in these model areas.

ii. Monitoring of wildlife populations: Surveys on wildlife populations have taken place in all model ar-eas as well as in adjacent sites, including the Wakhan in Afghanistan. A large scale survey on mountain un-gulates was organised for the Committee on Environ-mental Protection. The data collected are of high value for decision-making on national and local levels. The experience gained has been compiled in Guidelines on monitoring of mountain ungulates, which are in the future to be used as the standard in Tajikistan.

iii. Improvement of policy and legal framework: The project supports the process of drafting a new law on hunting and wildlife management and related bylaw to develop an enabling environment for the sustainable management of wildlife. Furthermore, the project sup-ports the accession of Tajikistan to the Convention on International Trade on Endangered Species of Fauna and Flora (CITES) and its implementation within the national legislation.

iv. Trans-boundary and regional cooperation: Trans-boundary activities are concentrated at the collabora-tion with Afghanistan, in particular, the programme of Wildlife Conservation Society (USA). At a regional level, exchange of experience and transfer of best prac-tices takes place with other Central Asian States in the frame of the GIZ Regional Programme, but also with the Caucasus Countries and Afghanistan. The coopera-tion of the Range States on conservation and sustain-able use of argali (wild sheep) based on the CMS is supported by the programme.

Contribution of sustainable wildlife management to climate change adaptation:

The project thus contributes to improving the manage-ment and governance of the wildlife resource and its habitats. Sustainable use of wild animals provides in-centives to protect not only the target species and their populations but entire ecosystems. Sustainable wildlife management thus tackles increasing pressure on natural resources and increases their resilience. It contributes to the preservation of entire ecosystems and maintenance of vegetation cover and indirectly helps to protect the soil from erosion, stabilise mudflow-prone zones and reduce the risk of flooding.

Sustainable wildlife management already contributes to increasing the resilience of the mountain ecosystems, but also has potential for other ecosystems, such as steppe, semi-desert and floodplains. It further increases the resilience of people’s livelihoods as it provides them with animal products and income opportunities.

40 41

The Tajik Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) is a region highly vulnerable to climate change. Weak public services and rudimentary infra-structure, in conjunction with the remoteness of the region, its rough physical conditions, and economic marginalisation, leave its population highly dependent on natural resources. Those in turn are already seriously affected by climate change. In particular, rising tem-peratures, seasonal shifts in water runoff from summer to spring as well as the increasing frequency and inten-sity of extreme weather events put severe pressure on land, forests, water and wild animals and are expected to negatively affect agriculture.

Natural disasters, which are expected to increase, put an extra burden on people’s livelihoods. In response, options to adapt the management of natural resources to climate change are presented in this study.

The 2011 United Nations Climate Change Confer-ence in Durban (South Africa) led to progress regard-ing the creation of the Green Climate Fund for which a management framework was adopted. The fund is to

distribute US$100bn per year to help poor countries adapt to climate impacts.

Currently the Pilot Programme for Climate Resilience (PPCR) is implemented as part of Climate Investment Funds (CIFs) in Tajikistan. Tajikistan receives sup-port to scale-up actions and foster transformational change via the integration of climate impact and risk management considerations into national development policies, investment planning, and programming. Fur-thermore, several multilateral and bilateral as well as national programmes related to adaptation to climate change are under way in Tajikistan.

However, adaptation plans on national level and the current need for adaptation on the local level are not always linked closely. Adaptation is an iterative learn-ing cycle process that needs to be followed at all lev-els of governance. Ultimately, the success or failure of adaptation measures will become evident at the local level in people’s livelihoods. Hence, it is important to have cost-efficient tools at hand which feed perceptions and solutions from the local level into the regional and

In general it can be stated that adaptation options with links to natural resource management (watershed man-agement, pasture management, wildlife management, good agricultural practices, reforestation/afforestation and forest management) comply with the targets of the other Rio conventions, namely the Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the Conven-tion on Biological Diversity (CBD). Trans-boundary cooperation under the Convention on the Conserva-tion of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS) sup-ports at the same time the achievement of sustainable use of biodiversity and the conservation of the natu-ral production potential of ecosystems as objectives of CBD and CMS. However, the specific synergetic potential very much depends on the concrete design of the adaptation option. For example, whether foster-ing alternative energy resources tangibly improves land management or contributes to mitigation depends on what has been the alternative before. Viewed the other way around, many solutions for improved land man-agement turn out to be valuable or mandatory options for adapting to climate change. Regarding the potential to mitigate greenhouse gases, those adaptation options

offer synergetic potential which either capture green-house gases (e.g. reforestation/afforestation, good agri-cultural practices, forest and watershed management) or which reduce emissions (e.g. renewable energies and efficient use of energy). On the other hand, adaptation options may also entail conflicts between the conven-tions. For example, big hydropower projects can also endanger biodiversity. Therefore, the concrete design of adaptation options needs to take such conflicts into account. However, in general it can be stated that the adaptation options proposed in this study have a very high potential to contribute to the Rio conventions. In detail, those contributions are shown in Annex I – Rel-evance of adaptation options in GBAO and synergies with environmental conventions and climate change mitigation.

5 Synergies between options for adaptation to climate change and targets of the Rio conventions and the mitigation of greenhouse gases

6 Conclusion and recommendations

42 43

proposing realistic adaptation approaches. Such testing should also include the reform of governance and policy schemes in pilot areas and take into consideration the indigenous and traditional knowledge of the region.

- Testing of up-scaling strategies of successful adapta-tion approaches is crucial to understand how to transfer success stories to similar areas.

- Implementing of sustainable mechanisms for capacity development among local land users to overcome exist-ing barriers to land-use related adaptation.

- Providing efficient dialogue processes for the inclusion of local and regional adaptation experiences in national adaptations plans and strategies will lead to decentral-ised funding mechanisms for locally tested adaptation measures.

- Feedback of experiences with adaptation approaches to international climate change negotiations.Acknowledging that there is still is a lot of work to do, the current study clearly reveals that we already know enough to understand that it is time to act now!

national planning processes for adaptation to climate change. This study is meant to provide input for the missing link between national adaptation strategies and local adaptation needs. In the framework of the study, the GIZ Climate Proofing for Development tool has proven to provide useful guidance to support a bot-tom-up elaboration of regional and national adaptation plans.

Due to the prevailing uncertainties about the local ef-fects of global climate change, all proposed options are “no-regret” measures which are beneficial even without climate change since they foster a sustainable use of natural resources, tackle already existing problems in-duced by climate variability and enhance the resilience of livelihoods to external shocks, one of those being cli-mate change.

All adaptation options are already relevant77 in the short to medium term, as the effects of climate change do al-ready harm peoples’ livelihoods and/or will intensify in the coming years. In the Western Pamir, all mentioned adaptation options are relevant, whereas in the eastern part, those concerning farming and forestry do not ap-ply (see Annex I – Relevance of adaptation options in GBAO and synergies with environmental conventions and climate change mitigation). However, even if – in general – the relevance of most adaptation options is high, the set of possible options for one specific loca-tion (village, region, ecozone) needs to be adapted to its local setting.

Sustainable management of natural resources needs to integrate climate change. By doing so, such manage-ment, especially of forest resources, fosters adaptation to climate change. This applies not only to the resources as such, but also to the population using the resources, based on the assumption that an increased resilience of natural resources also increases the resilience of the population relying on their use. The presented adapta-tion options reduce vulnerability to climate change by reducing the sensitivity of the resources; they further increase adaptive capacity (see chapter 3). This can be attained by:

- enhancing the efficient use of natural resources – e.g. water efficient irrigation technologies, energy efficiency measures for heating and cooking,

- substituting natural resources under pressure – e.g. us-ing solar water heating techniques instead of firewood, and

- increasing or stabilising the availability of resources – e.g. rainwater harvesting, afforestation/reforestation,

resilient crops, using and enhancing existing agro-bi-odiversity, irrigation of pastures, fodder storage tech-niques, managing wildlife populations in accordance with the carrying capacity of habitats.

Sustainable natural resource management needs to be complemented by additional adaptation measures. These are infrastructural adaptation options, such as climate change resilient hydropower plants, roads and bridges, as well as knowledge management and prepar-edness capacities. The awareness and information of all stakeholders about climate change and its impacts is a precondition to sustainable management. In addition, weather forecasts and early warning systems are of para-mount importance for the farmers and other users of natural resources. Preparedness capacities complement the set of possible options, which comprise measures to quickly respond to and overcome disastrous situations – e.g. insurance schemes, emergency funds, emergency staff and equipment.

A central precondition for meeting the challenges im-posed by global climate change is the establishment of functioning governance structures. Decentralisation of management and decision-making structures will have to become a centrepiece of respective reform processes. Some of the proposed adaptation options have the po-tential to contribute to the mitigation of greenhouse gases, to combat desertification and to preserve bio-diversity in the study area (see chapter 5). In general, the co-benefits of adaptation to climate change for the achievement of other Rio conventions are large.

Climate change is not an isolated sectoral issue. It has manifold impacts on all other sectors, and multiple im-plications for people’s livelihoods. Thus an integrated approach to tackle those different problems is crucial for the development of a region like GBAO. The cur-rent study may serve as input to assist the integration of climate change and environmental issues into a holistic approach for the region’s development.

While climate change and its impacts in GBAO are still far from being fully understood, there is a strong need for further action at different levels:

- Further analyses need to be performed, combining well-founded projections of future climate change with field research to assess the vulnerabilities of people’s livelihoods. Respective decision-making tools need to be made available to decision-makers at all levels.

- Testing and further elaboration of innovative adap-tation measures based on rehabilitating and strength-ening the services of existing ecosystems is crucial for

77 Relevance in this context is understood as a combination of the vulnerability of a (sub-)sector to climate change impacts and the poten-tial of the adaptation option to reduce the vulnerability of a sector.

44 45

Mamadyorbekova, Shodigul, “Historical Aspect of Ir- rigation Development in the Pamirs – An in- vestigation into the irrigation system and ir- rigation management within different time frames in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO)”; GTZ, 2010

Michel, Stefan, “Conservation and Use of Wild Un- gulates in Central Asia – Potential and Chal- lenges”, in Baldus, Damm, Wollscheid (edi- tors), “Best Practices in Sustainable Hunting – A Guide to Best Practices from Around the World”, CIC – International Council for Game and Wildlife Conservation

Michel, S. and R. Muratov, “Survey of Marco Polo sheep and other mammal species in the East- ern Pamirs (Republic of Tajikistan, GBAO)”;

GTZ, Dushanbe; 2010; at: www.wildlife-tajikistan.org (11 November 2011)

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Devel- opment (OECD), “Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Co- operation – Policy Guidance” 2009

Tajikistan, The Government of the Republic of Tajikistan, The State Agency of Hydrometeor- ology, Committee for Environmental Protec- tion under the Government of Tajikistan; “The Second National Communication of the Re- public of Tajikistan under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change”, Dushanbe, 2008

Tajikistan, Republic of, Statistical Agency under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan, (http:// www.stat.tj/english/database.htm) accessed 5 July 2011

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), “Central Asia: Background Paper on Climate Change”; 2007

Volkmer, H. (no year), “Wenn die Gletscher auf dem Dach der Welt schmelzen – Anpassung an den Klimawandel als Herausforderung im Pamir”, in DED-Brief

World Bank, “Country Partnership Strategy” http:// siteresources.worldbank.org/TAJIKIS TANEXTN/Resources/Country_CPS.pdf ac- cessed 28.01.2011

World Bank, “Tajikistan – Data and Figures” (http:// web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/ COUNTRIES/ECAEXT/TAJIKISTANEXT N/0,,menuPK:287273~pagePK:141132~p iPK:141109~theSitePK:258744,00.html) ac- cessed 28.01.2011

World Bank, 2009, “Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia”

World Bank, 2010, “Key Priorities for Climate Change Adaptation”

World Health Organization, 2010, “Global Alert and Response – Polio in Tajikistan – Update”

Asia Plus www.news.tj (various dates)

Baldus R. and Michel, S., “What does CITES mean for an African or Central Asian village? Some ex- periences from Tanzania and Tajikistan”; in IUCN-SSC Occasional Papers Series (in press); 2011

Bossenbroek, Lisa, “Gender and Irrigation Manage- ment in GBAO: The case of Spienz and Sho- hrizim”, GTZ 2010

Climate Investment Fund, “Programming and Financ- ing Modalities for the SCF Targeted Program, the Pilot Program for Climate Resilience (PPCR), 2009.

Costa, Maricla, “Landscape of Actors and Activities on Climate Change Adaptation in Tajikistan”, GTZ 2009.

Cruz, R.V., H. Harasawa, M. Lal, S. Wu, Y. Anokhin, B. Punsalmaa, Y. Honda, M. Jafari, C. Li and N. Huu Ninh, 2007, Asia. Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergov- ernmental Panel on Climate Change, M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J.P. Palutikof, P.J. van der Linden and C.E. Hanson, Eds., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK

Encyclopedia of Modern Asia, http://www.bookrags. com/research/kariz-irrigation-system-ema- 03/#bro_copy (accessed 7 September 2011)

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Na- tions (FAO), Crop and Food Assessment Mis- sion to Tajikistan, October 2009

Fröde, Hahn, 2010, “Climate Proofing for Develop ment - Adapting to Climate Change, Reduc- ing Risk”, Deutsche Gesellschaft für Tech- nische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH, Eschborn, 2010

GIZ, “Ecosystem-based Adaptation – Working Paper” (unpublished working paper)

GTZ, „Arbeitspapier zur Klimaerwärmung in Zentral- asien“ (unpublished working paper)

Hagg, W., Hoelzle, M., Wagner, M. and Klose, Z., “Es- timation of future glaciation and runoff in the Tanimas basin, Eastern Pamirs”; Discus- sion paper, published by Copernicus Publica- tions; 2011

Herbers, Hiltrud, „Postsowjetische Transformation in Tadschikistan: die Handlungsmacht der Akteure im Kontext von Landreform und Existenzsicherung.“Erlanger Geographische Arbeiten, Sonderband 33. Erlangen: Fränk- ische Geographische Gesellschaft; 2006

Hergarten, Christian, “Investigations on land cover and land use of Gorno Badakhshan (GBAO) by means of land cover classifications derived from LANDSAT 7 data making use of remote sensing and GIS techniques”, diploma thesis at the University of Bern; Bern; 2006

Hoeck, Tobias, Droux, Roman, Breu, Thomas, Hurni, Hans, Maselli Daniel: Rural energy consump- tion and land degradation in a post-Soviet set- ting – an example from the west Pamir moun- tains in Tajikistan, Centre for Development and Environment(CDE), University of Bern, in Energy for Sustainable Development, Vol- ume XI, No 1, March 2007

Index Mundi, „Infant and child mortality – Tajikistan”, data from the United Nations Statistics De- partment, http://www.indexmundi.com/ tajikistan/infant-and-child-mortality.html (ac- cessed 1 April 2011)

International Monetary Fund, “Republic of Tajikistan: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper”. Washing- ton; 2010

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Fourth Assessment Report, Impacts, Vulner- abilities and Adaptation; 2007

Kayumov A., Rajabov I., “Glaciers – Water Resources of Tajikistan in Condition of the Climate Change” Dushanbe; 2008.

Kirchhoff, Joachim-F; Fabian, André, 2010, “Forestry Sector Analysis of the Republic of Tajikistan”. Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusam- menarbeit (GTZ) GmbH; Regional Pro- gramme on Sustainable Use of Natural Re- sources in Central Asia; Dushanbe; 2010.

7 Literature

46 47

8.1 Annex I – Relevance of adaptation options in GBAO and synergies with environmental conventions and climate change mitigation

The following table gives an overview of synergies that are inherent to the identified adaptation options. The as-sessment distinguishes between three levels of relevance/synergy: high, limited and none.

8 Annexes

Table 2 – Relevance of adaptation options in GBAO and synergies with environmental conventions and climate change mitigation

(sub(sub(sub(sub----) ) ) )

SectorSectorSectorSector

Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation

optionoptionoptionoption

Relevance of the option Relevance of the option Relevance of the option Relevance of the option

for sector adaptation in for sector adaptation in for sector adaptation in for sector adaptation in

… … … …

Relevance of the option for achieving Relevance of the option for achieving Relevance of the option for achieving Relevance of the option for achieving

The The The The targets of...targets of...targets of...targets of...

Western Western Western Western

PamirPamirPamirPamir

Eastern Eastern Eastern Eastern

PamirPamirPamirPamir

CCDCCDCCDCCD CBDCBDCBDCBD MitigationMitigationMitigationMitigation

Potable

water supply

Watershed

management

High High High Limited Limited

Potable water

governance

structures

High High Limited None None

Adaptation of

potable water

infrastructure

High High Limited None None

Water

efficiency

High High High None None

Hydro-

power

Protection of

hydropower

plants

High Limited Limited78 None Limited78

Decentralised

power supply

High Limited Limited78 None None

Alternative

renewable

energy sources

Limited Limited Limited78 None High

Ecosystem Sustainable

management

of natural

resources

High High High High

Limited

Reforestation/

Afforestation

Limited None High High High

a) Water

(Sub(Sub(Sub(Sub----) ) ) )

SectorSectorSectorSector

Adaptation optionAdaptation optionAdaptation optionAdaptation option Relevance of the Relevance of the Relevance of the Relevance of the

option for sector option for sector option for sector option for sector

adaptation in …adaptation in …adaptation in …adaptation in …

Synergies with …Synergies with …Synergies with …Synergies with …

Western Western Western Western

PamirPamirPamirPamir

Eastern Eastern Eastern Eastern

PamirPamirPamirPamir

CCDCCDCCDCCD CBDCBDCBDCBD MitigationMitigationMitigationMitigation

Farming Efficient irrigation

water management

High None High Limited None

Adapted crops

(maintain

biodiversity of

existing crops)

High None Limited High None

Preventive

infrastructure and

other measures

High None Limited

to high

None None

Insurance

schemes/emergency

funds

High None None None None

Good agricultural

practices

High None High High Limited

Climate information

and weather

forecasting

High None High None None

Livestock

husbandry

Increase of fodder

production

High High High None None

Fodder storage

techniques

High High Limited

to high

None None

Sustainable pasture

management

High High High High Limited

Risk reduction

measures

High High Limited None None

b) Agriculture

78 Provided it is an alternative to a non-sustainable use of natural resources.

48 49

(Sub(Sub(Sub(Sub----) ) ) )

SectorSectorSectorSector

Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation

optionoptionoptionoption

Relevance of the option Relevance of the option Relevance of the option Relevance of the option

for for for for sector adaptation in sector adaptation in sector adaptation in sector adaptation in

…………

Synergies with …Synergies with …Synergies with …Synergies with …

Western Western Western Western

PamirPamirPamirPamir

Eastern Eastern Eastern Eastern

PamirPamirPamirPamir

CCDCCDCCDCCD CBDCBDCBDCBD MitigationMitigationMitigationMitigation

Management

of mountain

ungulates

Non-

extractive use

(nature

tourism)

High High High High None

Hunting

tourism

High High High High None

Hunting by

local people

High High High High None

Regulation of

pasture use

High High High High High

d) Wildlife management

(sub(sub(sub(sub----) ) ) )

SectorSectorSectorSector

Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation

optionoptionoptionoption

Relevance of the option Relevance of the option Relevance of the option Relevance of the option

for sector adaptation in for sector adaptation in for sector adaptation in for sector adaptation in

…………

Synergies with …Synergies with …Synergies with …Synergies with …

West West West West

PamirPamirPamirPamir

East PamirEast PamirEast PamirEast Pamir CCDCCDCCDCCD CBDCBDCBDCBD MitigationMitigationMitigationMitigation

Health79 Improvement

of potable

water supply

services

High High None None None

Prevention High High None None None

Save nutrition

base

High High None None None

Improvement

of health

services

High High None None None

Emergency

health service

High High None None None

Transport Preventive and

resistant

infrastructure

High High None None None

Settlements Preventive

measures

High Limited None None None

Early warning

systems

High Limited High None None

Disaster

preparedness

systems

High Limited High None None

e) Other sectors

(Sub(Sub(Sub(Sub----) ) ) )

sectorsectorsectorsector

Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation Adaptation

optionoptionoptionoption

Relevance of the option Relevance of the option Relevance of the option Relevance of the option

for sector adaptation in for sector adaptation in for sector adaptation in for sector adaptation in

…………

Synergies with …Synergies with …Synergies with …Synergies with …

Western Western Western Western

PamirPamirPamirPamir

Eastern Eastern Eastern Eastern

PamirPamirPamirPamir

CCDCCDCCDCCD CBDCBDCBDCBD MitigationMitigationMitigationMitigation

Alluvial

forests

Sustainable

forest

management

High None High High High

Watershed

management

High None High Limited Limited

Irrigation of

forests

High None Limited Limited Limited

Teresken Sustainable

pasture

management

High Limited High High Limited

c) Forestry

79 Compared to the already critical situation in the health sector, the impacts of climate change make a comparatively small difference (see chapter 3.6).Nevertheless an improvement of the sector and hence of the population’s health is crucial for its adaptive capacity.

50 51

8.2 Annex II – Table of boxes, figures and tables

10.1.1 Boxes

Box 1 – Regional Programme on Sustainable Use of Natural Resources in Central Asia........................................9Box 2 – Climate models......................................................................................................................................15Box 3 – Climate Proofing for Development (CP4Dev) and its application in this study......................................18Box 4 – Difference in the water sector between Eastern and Western Pamirs.......................................................19Box 5 – Vulnerability factors in the water sector..................................................................................................20Box 6 – Changes in irrigation water management...............................................................................................22Box 7 – Vulnerability factors in the agricultural sector........................................................................................23Box 8 – The livestock sector in GBAO...............................................................................................................23Box 9 – Teresken (Krascheninnikovia ceratoides)................................................................................................24Box 10 – Vulnerability factors in the forestry sector..............................................................................................27Box 11 – Vulnerability factors in the wildlife sector............................................................................................29Box 12 – Ecosystems and climate change adaptation – the case of sustainable wildlife management...................29Box 13 – Vulnerability factors in the healthcare sector......................................................................................30Box 14 – Vulnerability factors in the transport sector..........................................................................................31Box 15 – The Pamiri House...................................................................................................................................32Box 16 – Vulnerability factors in the settlements sector......................................................................................32Box 17 – Joint Forest Management & national forestry sector reform................................................................36Box 18 – Examples of Innovative Technologies..................................................................................................37

10.1.2 Figures

Figure 1 – Changes in annual air temperature in Tajikistan according to the Second National Communication of the Republic of Tajikistan under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (SNC)...........................................................13Figure 2 – Annual air temperature anomalies at selected stations in the GBAO according to the SNC...............13Figure 3 – Changes in annual precipitation in Tajikistan according to the SNC................................................14Figure 4 – Glaciers Tajikistan, including Gorno-Badakhshan, according to the SNC........................................15Figure 5 – Observed and predicted change in glacier volume in Tajikistan, according to the SNC.....................16Figure 6 – Energy consumption and supply in GBAO from 1920 until 2005.....................................................26

10.1.3 Tables

Table 1 – Representative impact chain..............................................................................................................18Table 2 – Relevance of adaptation options in GBAO and synergies with environmental conventions and climate change mitigation..................................................................................................................46

Deutsche Gesellschaft fürInternationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH

GIZ Regional ProgrammeSustainable Use of Natural Resources in Central Asia

Panfilova street, 150720040 Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan

T: +996 312 90 93 40I: www.giz.deI: www.naturalresources-centralasia.org