Lloyd WrightDeutsche Gesellschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH

Climate change and transport in developing nations

The transport sector and greenhouse gas emissions

Sector Percent of totalemissions

Average growthrate (1990-1995)

Industry 42% 0.4

Transport 26% 2.4

Residential buildings 20% 1.0

Commercial buildings 9% 1.0

Agriculture 3% 0.8

Total 100% 1.0

Transport and the UNFCCC mechanisms

Programme Total number of projects

Number of transport projects

Activities Implemented Jointly

186 projects 0 projects

Finland 7 CDM projects

5 JI projects

0 projects

Netherlands (ERUPT / CERUPT)

18 CDM projects

8 JI projects

0 projects

World Bank (Prototype Carbon Fund)

9 CDM projects

4 JI projects

0 projects

Global Environment Facility (GEF)

566 13 (6 on fuel cells)

Framework for transport emissions

Transport emissions per mode

=Number of vehicles

xDistance travelled

x

Emissions per vehicle

distance travelled

Mode share(behaviour)

Land-use(urban form)

Fuel efficiency(technology)

Land-use Zoning Route structure Vehicle mgmt.

Fuel type Propulsion system Maintenance Driver behaviour Dedicated lanes Dwell times

Affordability Comfort Convenience Load factor Safety Security Travel time

Mode share versus technology

The impact of gaining one more bus load of passengers

Assumptions: 120 passenger bus at 50% occupancy5 people switching from autos, 35 switching from other motorised vehicles, and

15 switching from non-motorised transport

Source: International Energy Agency, 2002

Bu

s eq

uiv

alen

ts

Conclusions of mode share vs. technology

“Regardless of whether a bus is ‘clean’ or ‘dirty’, if it is reasonably full it can displace anywhere from 5 to 50 other motorised vehicles...”

“Certainly, a cleaner bus will yield lower emissions, but in this scenario the emission reductions from technology choice are overshadowed by reductions from mode switching (and the resulting ‘subtraction’ of other vehicles)...Dramatic reductions in road space, fuel use, and most emissions can be achieved through displacing other vehicles with any bus, even the ‘Euro 0’ buses typically sold in the developing world.”

Source: IEA, 2002

Bus rapid transit (BRT)

Bus Rapid Transit€ 0.3 - 10 million / km

Bus Rapid Transit is a mass transit system that mimics the rapidity and performance of

metros but utilises buses rather than rail vehicles.

Bogotá’s “TransMilenio” BRT system

By 2015, TransMilenio will serve 5 million passengers

per day over 388 kilometers of busways.

What do customers want?

Courteous drivers

Aesthetically-pleasing environment

Rapid boarding

Easy to understand maps

Lighting and security

TransMilenio greenhouse gas reductions

Avoiding the “leakage” of older vehicles by scrapping 7.0 to 8.9 older buses for every new articulated bus introduced

20% of TransMilenio users formerly drove private vehicles

Estimated greenhouse reductions for first 30 years of operation: 15 - 25 million metric tons of CO2-equivalents

Complementary measures in Bogotá

Ciclovía Sunday (120 km of car-free roadways)

250 km of high-quality cycleways

World´s largest car-free weekday

World’s longest pedestrian corridor

Major effort to recuperate public space

Restraints on car use

Bogotá’s global impact

Cities with BRT projects in development

Accra, GhanaCape Town, South Africa

Dakar, SenegalDar es Salaam, Tanzania

Beijing, ChinaDelhi, India

Hanoi, VietnamJakarta, Indonesia

Guatemala City, GuatemalaLima, Peru

Mexico City, MexicoSantiago, Chile

Replication

Rouen, France Nagoya, Japan Brisbane, Australia

Curitiba, Brazil Quito, Ecuador Taipei, Taiwan

City transformations

Seoul, South Korea

GTZ Sourcebook

“Sustainable Transport: A Sourcebook for Policy-Makers in Developing Cities”

www.sutp.org

Sample modules

1. Bus rapid transit

2. Non-motorised transport

3. Mass transit options

4. Bus sector reform

5. Mobility management

6. Inspection and maintenance

7. Air quality management

The path to sustainable transport

1. To date, the transport sector has played a surprisingly small role in mitigation efforts under the UNFCCC mechanisms.

2. The current focus on fuel switching has meant that transport measures are generally not cost competitive or realizable in the short term (e.g., fuel cells).

3. However, shifting mode share from private motorised vehicles to public transport and non-motorised transport can enable the transport sector to compete in mitigation efforts.