OECD-Wirtschaftsausblick Juni 2016
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OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Paris, 1 June, 2016 Christian Kastrop Director, Economics Department www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm ECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com/
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Transcript of OECD-Wirtschaftsausblick Juni 2016
OECD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
Paris, 1 June, 2016
Christian KastropDirector, Economics Department
www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htmECOSCOPE blog: oecdecoscope.wordpress.com/
Global GDP growth is low
Global GDP growth in 2016 projected to be about the same as 2015; 2017 only a little stronger
Growth is flat in advanced economies, slower in many EMEs
ProjectionsReal GDP, Annual percentage changes
1. Moving nominal GDP weights using purchasing power parities. 2. Fiscal years starting in April.Source: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database.
GDP growth
2014 2015 2016 2017World1 3.3 3.0 3.0 3.3United States 2.4 2.4 1.8 2.2Euro area 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.7United Kingdom 2.9 2.3 1.7 2.0Japan 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.4China 7.3 6.9 6.5 6.2India2 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.5Brazil 0.1 -3.9 -4.3 -1.7
2
Global trade growth is weak, particularly in Asia
Note: SE Asia includes Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. Euro area and SE Asia include intra-regional trade.Source: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database; OECD calculations.
Trade in goods and servicesReal annual growth
A return to pre-crisis trade growth would boost productivity by 1 per cent on average after 5 years
3
Weak exports and investment are weighing on US growth
Contributions to quarterly US GDP growth
Source: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database.4
Labour markets are healing only slowly
Employment rateUnemployment rate
Note: Unemployment rates are 2016Q1 for Canada, Japan and the United States.Source: Eurostat; OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database; OECD Labour Force Statistics; OECD Main Economic Indicators; United States Bureau of Labor Statistics.
5
Innovation and diffusion have slowed
Labour productivity
Note: Each line shows the average labour productivity (value added per worker). The “Top 5%” and “Top 100” are the globally most productive firms in each two-digit industry. “Non-frontier firms” is the average of all firms, excluding the Top 5%. Included industries are manufacturing and business services, excluding the financial sector. The coverage of firms in the dataset varies across the 24 countries in the sample and is restricted to firms with at least 20 employees.Source: OECD preliminary results based on Andrews, D., C. Criscuolo and P. Gal (2016), “Mind the Gap: Productivity Divergence between the Global Frontier and Laggard Firms”, OECD Productivity Working Papers, forthcoming; Orbis data of Bureau van Dijk.
6
Incomes are rising very slowly for most workers, increasing inequality
Inequality in income is increasingReal household disposable income, total population
Note: OECD is the unweighted average of the countries for which data are available. Source: OECD estimations based on Kappeler et al. (2016), “Decoupling of Productivity and Median Wage Growth: Macro-Level Evidence”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, forthcoming; OECD National Accounts database; OECD Earnings database; OECD Income Distribution database; OECD calculations.
Wages growing less than productivityAnnualised real growth rates, per hour worked,
1990-2013
7
Failure to get out of the low-growth trap means broken promises to the youth
Note: For LHS, OECD is the unweighted average of 34 OECD countries. 2013 for Chile and the United States. Youth aged 15-24 for Japan.Source: OECD calculations based on national labour force surveys; OECD Short-Term Labour Market Statistics database.
Inactive and unemployed youth Share of all youth (15-29 years old)
Change in OECD employment rateFrom Q4 2007 to Q4 2015, % pts
Unemployment in the first 10 years of a worker’s career leads to large differences inlife-time earnings
8
Monetary policy is in unchartered waters
Negative central bank deposit rates in a number of economies
Source: Thomson Reuters.
Central bank balance sheets
9
Fiscal policy: use the opportunity to lock-in low borrowing costs and boost growth
Note: Simulation using the NiGEM model, based on a two-year increase in the level of government investment equivalent to ½ per cent of GDP per annum in all OECD countries. The euro area figures are a weighted average of Germany, France and Italy.Source: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database; OECD calculations.
Collective action should focus on quality public investment and pro-growth structural policies
1st year effects of a ½ per cent of GDP public investment increase by all OECD economiesChange from baseline
10
Structural policies to increase productivity can also boost demand and employment
Note: EMEs include Brazil, Chile, China, Columbia, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Russia, Turkey and South Africa; Mexico and Turkey only prior to 2011. Advanced includes the rest of the OECD. Source: OECD Going for Growth 2016.
Shift the composition of public spending to investmentEncourage firm entry and investment in service sectorsReduce barriers to geographic and jobs mobilityPackage simultaneous labour and product market reformsImprove function of financial system and access to credit
The pace of structural reform has slowedShare of OECD Going for Growth recommendations implemented
Unique package for each country:
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Summary
Diagnosis: Low-growth trap• Subdued investment, trade, employment, wage, and productivity growth
Risks: Substantial downside• Brexit, EME financial vulnerabilities, increased financial market volatility
Consequences: Broken promises to young, old, investors • Slowing productivity, reduced long-term growth prospects, rising inequality
Recommendations: Comprehensive, coherent, collective action • Quality public investment, country-specific structural reforms, reduce
burden on monetary policy
Outcome: A high-growth path that keeps promises • Stronger investment, trade, employment, consumption, productivity, equity12
Wirtschaftswachstum in Deutschland stabil
Quelle: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database.
BIP-Wachstum (Jahresraten)20
10Q
4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
-2
0
2
4
6
-2
0
2
4
6
Deutschland Euro Raum USA Österreich
%%
13
Das Wachstum 2016 wird von Konsum und Wohnungsbau getragen
ProjectionsReal GDP, Annual percentage changes
Wachstum ausgewählter BIP Komponenten
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0
-1.5
0.0
1.5
3.0
4.5
6.0Staatskonsum Wohnbau Exporte
% %
Quelle: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database.14
Die Arbeitslosigkeit bleibt niedrig
ProjectionsReal GDP, Annual percentage changes
Quelle: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database und Statistisches Bundesamt.
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
2013
Q1
2013
Q2
2013
Q3
2013
Q4
2014
Q1
2014
Q2
2014
Q3
2014
Q4
2015
Q1
2015
Q2
2015
Q3
2015
Q4
2016
Q1
2016
Q2
2016
Q3
2016
Q4
2017
Q1
2017
Q2
2017
Q3
2017
Q4
3
4
5
6
7
8
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1.6
Arbeitslosenquote Quote freier Stellen
% %
15
Die Unternehmensinvestitionen im Euro Raum besonders verhalten – auch in Deutschland
ProjectionsReal GDP, Annual percentage changes
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201770
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Frankreich USA europäische Hocheinkommensländer außerhalb des Euro Raums
2007 = 100 2007 = 100
Quelle: OECD June 2016 Economic Outlook database.16
Das Produktivitätswachstum hat nachgelassen und die Dienstleistungen fallen
zurück
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 201580
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Bruttowertschöpfung je geleisteter Arbeitsstunde, in konstanten PreisenVerarbeitendes Gewerbe Unternehmensdienstleistungen
1997=100 1997=100
Quelle: OECD (2015), OECD Productivity Database und OECD National Accounts Database.17
Wirtschaftspolitische Empfehlungen für Deutschland
Source: OECD Going for Growth 2016; OECD calculations.
Haushaltspolitische Spielräume nutzen, um inklusives Wachstum zu fördern
Die Integration der Flüchtlinge und Einwanderer verbessern und beschleunigen
Hemmnisse für Frauen, die ganztags arbeiten wollen, abbauen.
Restriktive Regulierung der freien Berufe reduzieren und Netzindustrien wettbewerbsfreundlicher regulieren
Hemmnisse für den Strukturwandel abbauen
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Exportleistung in Österreich seit 2012 stark rückläufig
Quelle: OECD Economic Outlook Database.
Anmerkung: Exportleistung beschreibt Entwicklung der eigenen Exporte im Vergleich zur Entwicklung der Exportmärkte (gewichtete Summe der Importe der Partnerländer)
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 42005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
AUT DEU
Exportleistung (2008Q1=100)
19
Trotz schwachen Wachstums ist die Inflation in Österreich deutlich höher als in Deutschland und der Euro-Zone
Quelle: OECD Economic Outlook Database.
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 42010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5AUT DEU EA15
Verbraucherpreisindex (jährliche Wachstumsrate in %)
20
Wirtschaftspolitische Empfehlungen für Österreich
Bankenabwicklung auf Basis von Gläubigerbeteilung muss weiter vorangetrieben werden um die Restrukturierung des Bankensektors zu beschleunigen
Eine ausgeglichenere Beteiligung am Arbeitsmarkt zwischen Mann und Frau sollte gefördert werden (Ausbau von Ganztagsschulen, steuerliche Anreize, etc.)
Restriktive Regulierung im Dienstleistungsbereich sollte gelockert werden, um die Inflationslücke und persistente Produktivitätsschwäche zu überwinden
Schnelle und gezielte Eingliederung der Flüchtlinge würde soziale Kohäsion, Wachstum und Staatsfinanzen langfristig unterstützen
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