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PCTR / CEVRO INSTITUT Jungmannova 17 / 110 00 Praha 1 / Czech Republ ic

te l . : + 420 221 506 737 email : pctr@vsci .cz / www.cevroinst itut .cz

PCTR Newsletter 4/2015

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PCTR Newsletter 4/2015

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Dear PCTR supporters,

It is the end of the month in which we conducted four public events dedicated not only to the current threats arising from the crisis in Ukraine and Greece, but also, for example, in Iran. In addition, we published the policy paper "Czech Republic in the Common Security and Defense Policy EU: Audit and Perspectives", which is downloadable for free here. Now, we are preparing other interesting conferences and seminars, namely the public presentation of the aforementioned policy paper (12th May, from 14:00), and all-day international conference on "Cyber Security and National Defense", which will be attended by selected experts from Europe and Israel (28th May, from 13:00). In addition, this month will be published a professional publication within the project to support peaceful reunification of the Korean peninsula states.

I wish you a pleasant reading our fresh newsletter, which traditionally contains

detailed information about our underlying events and monitoring from the field of

Euro-Atlantic relations.

With respect,

Alexandr Vondra

Director

Message from the Director

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PCTR Newsletter 4/2015

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The Prague Center for Transatlantic Relations of CEVRO Institute organized another seminar

in pursuance of the Club

meeting, with Štefan Füle, Czech

diplomat and politician, as the

guest. He spoke on the topic

"Ukraine between East and

West" and because of the rule of

Chatham House, the seminar led

to an interesting discussion

again. The moderator of the

event traditionally was the

director of PTCR, Alexandr

Vondra.

The PCTR also organized the public debate entitled „Grexit: When Greece leaves the

Eurozone?“, which took place on 9thApril. The invitation was accepted by Petr Robejsek (political

scientist and advisor for strategic issues), Zdenek Tuma (former Governor of the Czech National

Bank) and Lenka Zlamalova (journalist, ECHO24). The president of the CEVRO Institute Josef Sima

opened the event. The main media partner of the event was the portal about economy,

finance and investment ROKLEN 24.

Lenka Zlamalova concentrated on the current political and economic situation in Greece and

possible consequences for the whole of European Union. “Greece has paid it debts, but on

Monday, they will not have

money to pay pensions or other

social services,” said the

journalist. “J.P. Morgan, one of

the most influential financial

institutions, announced that

banks should count with the

fact that Greece leaves

the Eurozone,” continued

Zlamalova.

She also mentioned that the

ruling party Syriza is trying to blackmail EU by threats that it would allow undesirable migration to

the Schengen area. The current government is also exploring possibilities to cooperate with

Russia. According to the journalist, this situation needs to be solved before the trend spreads to

other South European countries. Reportedly, Greeks have accepted that they are about to leave

the Eurozone and they are acting according to that fact. At the same time, Europe seems ready to

allow Greece to leave the Eurozone with dignity. “The sooner it happens, the better for both

sides,” closed Zlamalova her remarks.

PCTR Bulletin

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PCTR Newsletter 4/2015

str. 2 Zdenek Tuma continued with his very realistic opinion on the Greek position. He reminded the

audience that Euro should have become the most stable

currency, but it didn´t work out. “It´s not important what

currency the country has if it is bankrupted,” said Tuma.

The former Head of the Czech National Bank also explained the

role of the so called fiscal illusion and overrated expectations.

“The Eurozone was supposed to be the safest area with

guaranteed currency stability. But these expectations were not

fulfilled,” added Tuma. He said that being a member of the

Eurozone does not say anything about the fiscal situation of

the country and it also does not mean stability ever after.

According to Tuma, the return to drachma is not a solution as

Greece is missing the trust of investors and is reluctant to

accept foreign capital.

Petr Robejsek closed the panel with his rather euro skeptical

remarks. The European integration, he claimed, was a tool to establish unified Europe. But the

project failed on both fields – political as well as economic. “The Eurozone may have been

established with good intentions, but it

went a totally opposite way, selfish

decisions made by the EU leaders

caused the rise of euro skeptical parties

that are reflecting the disappointment of

the citizens, and also brought back old

animosities that were forgotten – like

anti-germanism,” said Robejsek.

Our thanks go to the media partner

and our friends and colleagues from

Civic Institute.

On 16th April 2015, the PCTR organized a special public Club meeting. The guest of the

seminar was the Honorary Foreign Policy Adviser to President of the Slovak Republic, director

of the Research Centre of the Slovak Foreign Policy Association and an academician, Ass. Prof.

(Doc.) Alexander Duleba. The theme

of the seminar was "Putin's Foreign

Policy and Development Scenario of the

Russian-Ukrainian Crisis".

The moderator of the meeting was a

diplomat, politician and government

official, Mrs. Magda Vášáryová, who is

going to lead a series of meetings with

Slovak guests with the title "Magda

Vasaryova’s Guest". The aim of these

seminars is to strengthen the Czech-

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PCTR Newsletter 4/2015

str. 2 Slovak relations and mutual understanding. The tenth Club meeting was supported by RWE

Česká republika.

On 23rd April took place at the CEVRO Institute the public lecture entitled "The Iranian Regime as

a Threat for World Security”.

The main speaker was the former

Iranian diplomat and current

representative for National Council of

Resistance of Iran (NCRI) in

Northern Europe Perviz S. Khazai.

The PCTR director Alexandr Vondra

opened the lecture with his short

welcome speech. Opening remarks

were presented by Jan Zahradil, the

president of the Alliance of European

Conservatives and Reformists (AECR)

and MEP. The event was co-organized by the PCTR and European Conservatives and

Reformists Group (ECR).

Mr. Khazai started his lecture with a brief summary of the history of the Iranian revolution.

He added some personal remarks as he had been directly involved in the revolution as a young

career diplomat. “Similarly as during the Arab Spring, there were no stable democratic institutions.

And when there are no democratic institutions the power is taken by those perfectly organized –

and that means especially various churches,” stated the speaker.

“I stopped sympathizing with the revolution when I saw its effects on the country - the

transformation - especially when Khomeini took the power. So, I became a member of the

opposition,” said Khazai, who called himself a ‘rebel diplomat’.

Mr. Khazai also spoke about the role of the Iranian opposition and representation of women in it.

Later, he focused on the current threats related to Iran, especially the ISIS and use of nuclear

energy. Mr. Khazai stressed out that

the opposition is ready to tackle both

these problems. As usual, the

discussion with audience followed.

An audio record from the event

can be found here.

We would like to thank our

media partners the Civic

Institute, Czech-Israeli Chamber

of Commerce, Eretz.cz, Shekel.cz

and reviewed journal Defense

and Strategy.

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By Czech official and alternative media heavily discussed event – called Dragoon Ride, a return of American soldiers of the 2nd Stryker Cavalry from exercise in Lithuania to their barracks in Bavarian Vilseck successfully ended. The convoy consisting of armored Strykers with logistical vehicles left the Czech Republic´s territory around 11:30 am on the 1st of April and went on to Germany to its home base Rose Barracks.

http://www.acr.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/operace-dragoon-ride-_-konvoj-us-army-

opustil-uzemi-cr-108524/

On the 2nd April in Lausanne, Switzerland, was reached a preliminary agreement on the Iran's

nuclear program - the so-called Iranian nuclear deal framework. This agreement, thanks to which

Iran has committed to reduce its uranium enrichment in exchange for a gradual sanctions relief,

should reduce the fears of Iran's nuclear program. The signing of the final version is planned in

June 2015.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-32166814

On the 2nd April the Russian Federation threatened the Baltic members of the alliance with

a possible nuclear strike if NATO forces continue to strengthen its military presence in the region.

Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia fear that they might be next in the so-called "hybrid war" led by

Russia. Moscow also declared that it is willing to use nuclear weapons as a guarantee in case of

attack on Crimea, which joined the Russian Federation last year.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-threatens-to-use-nuclear-force-over-

crimea-and-the-baltic-states-10150565.html

"The way in which was Crimea seized and annexed to the Russian federation in March 2014

I consider a serious destabilization of the post-war order and violation of the principles of

international law," said the Slovak president Andrej Kiska after Saturday's meeting with Russian

Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who arrived to visit Slovakia on the occasion of the 70th

anniversary of Bratislava’s liberation. Lavrov, within the frame of this anniversary, said that the

global dominance of a single superpower is inadmissible.

http://zpravy.idnes.cz/rusko-ma-odpovednost-za-stabilizaci-situace-na-ukrajine-mini-kiska-1dh-

/zahranicni.aspx?c=A150404_112816_zahranicni_ert

Chinese navy is soon to be geared with three new assault submarines type 93G (in the codename of NATO –Shang class). These machines have the latest technologies available both in kit and weaponry. High-ranked naval officers at the February meeting with senior officials of US Congressman outlined the fact that China will soon overstep the number of the US Navy assault submarine fleet. Concerns also source from the new emerging strategic ballistic missiles and missile-geared submarines. These would be probably able to threaten Alaska or Hawaii.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/asia/chinese-navy-prepares-to-launch-three-new-and-

upgraded-nuclear-submarines-10156619.html

Respected server Janes on the 22nd April said that the new Russian tank T-14 Armata will be

shown in Moscow on the 9th May. It should be a tank with a remote-controlled tower, with the

crew placed in a special armored capsule in front of the vehicle. The tank chassis is to serve as

a platform for a heavy armored transporter Kurganec and self-mobile howitzer Koalicija.

http://www.janes.com/article/50896/new-russian-heavy-armour-breaks-cover

Events in Euro-Atlantic relations (April 2015)

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str. 2 President Milos Zeman entered on the 5th April into a dispute with the United States Ambassador in

the Czech Republic – Andrew Shapiro. The president was angered by the statement of the US

ambassador, in which Shapiro commented on the President's planned trip to Moscow. President

Zeman is going to participate in celebrations of the 70th anniversary of the end of the "Great

Patriotic War" as the Second World War is called in Russia. Most Western high-level politicians,

however, boycott these traditional celebrations, which will take place on the 9th May and are

associated with a grand military parade. That is what the American ambassador reminded.

President Zeman then expressed himself that he does not intend to discuss with the US

Ambassador any further.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32189757

The first Rapid Reaction Force exercise, involving theoretical preparation of 43rd Parachute

Battalion, which falls into Fast Reaction Forces (VJTF - Very High Readiness Joint Task Force), was

held on 9th April in Chrudim. It included preparation for a rapid transfer of 150 soldiers in the

Baltics, both from Pardubice airbase and through Chrudim railway station.

https://www.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/_alert-cviceni_-proverilo-sily-velmi-rychle-

reakce-108673/

From 10th to 17th April could be seen popular American warplanes type A-10 "Thunderbolt II"

(better known by the nickname "Warthog") flying over the mountains in Vysocina. American

fighters operated in cooperation with the Czech soldiers and Belgian helicopters A-109 in the

exercise POP UP A-10 CAS.

http://www.acr.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/na-vrtulnikove-zakladne-v-namesti-se-k-

belgickym-vrtulnikum-a-109-_pridaly_-americke-proudove-letouny-a-10-108722/

Russia gives Iran an advanced defense system S-300. On 13th of April, it lifted the ban on

the delivery of missiles to Iran, partly as a helpful step towards Iranian willingness to cooperate on

the Framework agreement. US President Barack Obama, however, on 17th of April confirmed, after

a meeting with Italian Prime Minister, that sanctions against Iran will meanwhile continue until Iran

actually signs the framework agreement. The majority in the US Congress has been in favor of

lifting of the sanctions for a long time. Without the consent of the executive authority of the US,

the sanctions cannot be lifted.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2015/4/13/russia-opens-way-to-missile-deliveries-to-

iran.html, http://echo24.cz/a/ipFAY/obama-sankce-proti-iranu-museji-zatim-pokracovat

Czech soldiers from 13th to 24th April participated in the fourth joint Czech-German-Austrian

exercise "Dynamic Response 2015". These maneuvers were aimed not only at logistics, but also at

developing basic artillery skills as well as sappers of tank and mechanized troops. The exercise was

held in the Austrian military training ground in Allensteig. The Czech Republic was represented by

members of the 72nd mechanized battalion from Praslavice, organizationally a part of the

7th mechanized brigade.

http://www.acr.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/dynamic-response-proveri-schopnosti-

ceskych--nemeckych-a-rakouskych-vojaku-108873/

A press conference at the Ministry of Defense was held on 15th of April, attended by Deputy Chief

of General Staff Gen. Francis Malinovsky, regarding the publicly controversially perceived

amendment to the defense bill stating that from 1st of January 2017 young men and women who

would reach 18 years of age that year should undergo recruitment management. After that they

would be included in the register of reserve soldiers. Enlisted citizens will be allowed to participate

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PCTR Newsletter 4/2015

str. 2 in voluntary military exercises. This was previously available to active reserve only. Conversely,

every citizen will have the right to refuse to serve for reasons of conscience or religion.

http://www.mocr.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/v-dobe-miru-prosazuje-ministerstvo-

sluzbu-v-armade-na-principu-dobrovolnosti-108905/

The Ministry of Defence of the Czech Republic reported on 16th April that NATO maneuvers called

AMPL STRIKE will take place from 31st August to 23rd September in the Czech Republic. Sixteen

NATO armies will participate. The aim of the exercise is to harmonize the training of forward air

controllers, who determine land targets for the Air Force, manned aircraft and helicopters.

http://www.acr.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/na-cviceni-ample-strike-2015-se-do-ceska-

chystaji-vojaci-z-16-zemi-nato-108924/

US President Barack Obama and the Saudi-Arabian king Salman had on a telephone conference

17th April, as stated in a press release of the White House. The main topic was the situation in

Yemen. Both leaders discussed their common opinion, which should be submitted to the UN

Security Council. They also agreed that for the stabilization of the situation, it is necessary not only

to have a close cooperation with the UN, but also with the Cooperation Council of Arab Gulf States.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/04/17/readout-president-s-call-king-salman-

bin-abdulaziz-al-saud-saudi-arabia

French and Russian presidents, Francois Hollande and Vladimir Putin, discussed the delivery of two

Mistral class landing ships Russian Navy in Yerevan. According to its president, Russia is eventually

settled for financial compensation if France returns the amount already paid (and delivers a

potential compensation). The total could go up to 1.5 billion Euro.

http://zpravy.e15.cz/zahranicni/politika/francie-o-valecnych-lodich-stale-nerozhodla-rusko-se-pry-

spokoji-i-s-kompenzaci-1184020

Czech Government approved the participation of Czech soldiers in UN missions in the territory of

Mali and also the Golan Heights. According to the Secretary of Defense, Martin Stropnický, it will

be the first full-fledged participation of Czech soldiers in missions since 1998. So far, the Czech

Republic has sent only individual military observers. The total cost of Czech participation in

missions should be around 182 million Crowns. A certain part of the sum will be compensated by

the UN.

http://www.mocr.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/vlada-schvalila-ucast-ceskych-vojaku-v-

misich-osn-109075/

Czech members of special units of the 102nd Battalion of Deep Reconnaissance participated in the

competition of special and anti-terrorist units Warrior 2015 in the capital of Jordan, Amman.

The seventh year of the competition involved eight Czech specials. In total there were members

of 19 armies.

http://www.acr.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/specialni-jednotky-soutezi-v-jordansku--

poprve-jsou-zde-i-cesi-109086/

On 24th April was announced that the commander of the alliance exercise "Allied Spirit II" will be

for the first time in the history of Czech Republic Czech officer, commander of the 7th mechanized

brigade from Hranice, Josef Kopecký. 4,500 soldiers are expected to participate in this exercise and

it will take place in the German military training area of Hohenfels. Czech military is going to send

to the exercise about 1,400 soldiers with heavy equipment, including tanks, armored vehicles,

mortars and guns.

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str. 2 http://zpravy.idnes.cz/cviceni-nato-bude-poprve-velet-cech-dua-

/zpr_nato.aspx?c=A150423_134949_zpr_nato_inc

A meeting of defense ministers of the Visegrad Four on the topic of common defense policy was

held in Bratislava on 23rd April. At the meeting was discussed not only a long-term cooperation,

but also the preparation of the first joint battle group, to which the Czech Republic will contribute

950 troops, mainly medical and logistics personnel. This operating group should be able-bodied

until mid of 2016. During the meeting, politicians expressed support for the Action Plan, which

contains concrete steps to fulfill the vision of a long-term cooperation of the V4 countries in the

field of defense. They also supported the training strategy V4. The meeting as well focused on the

cooperation of the V4 countries in protecting airspace and on cooperation in the field of defense

planning.

http://www.mocr.army.cz/informacni-servis/zpravodajstvi/ministri-obrany-zemi-v4-jednali-na-

slovensku-109093/

On 24th April Ukraine, together with communication and information agency NATO (NCIA), signed

a memorandum of agreement, declaring NATO's promise to help with the modernization of

the Ukrainian army, which also includes extensive technical assistance.

http://www.janes.com/article/50938/nato-and-ukraine-sign-c4i-modernisation-agreement

Japan and the USA declared a common position on nuclear non-proliferation. Both sides said in a

statement that the NPT is one of the important tasks of world politics. They also agreed on the

importance of close cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the

continuing moratoria on nuclear testing. The two superpowers also declared that they have no

interest in denying any nation in the world the right to peaceful use of nuclear energy. This was

stated by the White House in a press release.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2015/04/28/us-japan-joint-statement-treaty-non-

proliferation-nuclear-weapons-npt