Philadelphia 2020State of the City

April 2020Report

Lexey Swall for The Pew Charitable Trusts

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OverviewAt the start of 2020, Philadelphia continued to be largely a tale of success, expanding upon years of economic progress and demographic change. But the rise in violent crime had become a central element in the city’s story, with the potential to change Philadelphia’s positive overall trajectory—especially when combined with its ongoing challenge of high poverty.

How the picture will change in the wake of the far-reaching impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen. Through 2019, Philadelphia remained a city where people wanted to live, work, and visit. Its population rose for the 13th consecutive year, albeit marginally, reaching 1,584,064. That’s a strong gain of more than 95,000 since 2006, when the population bottomed out after a half-century of decline—but still nowhere near the peak of more than 2 million in 1950.

The share of Philadelphians with a college degree has also grown in recent years—reaching 30.9 percent overall and 45.1 percent among adults ages 25-34, making the city more attractive to would-be employers.

In concert with rising educational attainment, the local economy continued to expand until the pandemic arrived. In 2019, the job count stood at 741,200, the most since 1990, a rise that came despite the sudden closures of two large, long-standing private employers: Hahnemann University Hospital and the Philadelphia Energy Solutions refinery. Key economic sectors were also flourishing, including the education, medical, and leisure and hospitality industries. And the city’s median household income of $46,116—though still lagging behind other U.S. cities—rose by a healthy margin in the past few years.

In addition, unemployment in 2019 was historically low at 5.2 percent, although it remained higher than the rates in the rest of the metropolitan area, many other cities, and the nation as a whole. In recent years, the drop in Philadelphia’s unemployment rate and the increase in the number of jobs have both come at a faster pace than they have nationally, underscoring the city’s economic strength.

This year, however, as a massive public health emergency threatens all of that, the rise in violent crime is adding to the city’s woes.

In Philadelphia, major crimes increased marginally for the second year in a row in 2019, after falling in each of the previous seven years. But violent crimes rose 7.2 percent, the first upsurge since 2015.

And the number of homicides climbed to 356 in 2019, or nearly one per day, a figure essentially unchanged from the previous year but up nearly 45 percent since 2013. In the early months of 2020, the homicide rate was on track to be even higher.

The rise in crime comes at a time when concern about public safety is already one of the main reasons people move out of Philadelphia, according to a poll conducted by The Pew Charitable Trusts, and when many other cities are seeing a drop in homicides. In 2019, Philadelphia’s rate—measured as the number of homicides per 100,000 residents—was still lower than those in Baltimore, Detroit, Cleveland, and Washington. But it was higher than the rate in Chicago, a city that has received a lot of national media attention for its gun violence over the past decade.

Philadelphia officials have attributed the increase in homicides, in part, to opioid misuse, which has affected neighborhoods throughout the city and is itself a significant cause of death in Philadelphia. Indeed, preliminary numbers suggest that approximately 1,100 drug overdose deaths occurred in 2019 (about as many as in 2018),

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Contact: Elizabeth Lowe, communications officer Email: elowe@pewtrusts.org Project website: pewtrusts.org/philaresearch

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a figure more than three times greater than the homicide total and still among the largest in the nation on a per capita basis.

The backdrop to much of this, of course, is Philadelphia’s enduring challenge with entrenched poverty, which city officials have long seen as Philadelphia’s core problem. At 24.5 percent, the share of city households living below the federal poverty line has decreased slightly from previous years but remains the highest of the 10 largest U.S. cities. And the nearly 380,000 Philadelphians living in poverty serve as a sobering reminder of the magnitude of the situation.

For more than a decade, Philadelphia has netted steady gains in jobs and population—in a way that hasn’t happened since the 1940s. But the concerns over public safety could endanger that progress. And any potential effects of the current COVID-19 situation are still unknown.

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Population

Percentage of residents who are:

Male 47%

Female 53%

Younger than 20 25%

Ages 20-34 26%

Ages 35-54 24%

Age 55 or older 25%

Black or African American 40%

Non-Hispanic white 34%

Hispanic or Latino 15%

Asian 7%

Other 4%

Percentage of residents who:

Were born in Pennsylvania 64%

Were born in other states 17%

Were born in Puerto Rico or another U.S. territory 4%

Were foreign-born 15%

Speak a foreign language at home 24%

Percentage of adult residents who:

Graduated from college 31%

Did not graduate from high school 14%

Total housing units 688,846

Percentage of units listed as:

Vacant 12%

Occupied 88%

Percentage of units built before 1939 43%

Median monthly rent $1,032

Percentage of units:

Owned by occupant 53%

Rented 47%

Where residents lived in the previous year:

Same house 86%

Different house in Philadelphia 9%

Somewhere else in the U.S. 4%

Abroad 1%

Percentage of residents without health insurance 7%

Percentage of adults who are:

Married 30%

Never married 51%

Divorced or separated 13%

Widowed 6%

Percentage of single-parent households 57%

Median household income

Percentage of households with annual incomes of:

Less than $35,000 41%

$35,000 to $74,999 28%

$75,000 to $99,999 10%

$100,000 or more 21%

Percentage of population below poverty level 25%

Percentage of households with:

No vehicles available 31%

Two or more vehicles available 25%

A computer at home 88%

Broadband internet service 80%

Percentage of workers employed by:

Private sector 83%

Government agencies 13%

Their own businesses 3%

1,584,064

$46,116

Figure 1

Portrait of the City

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Figure 3

Median Household Income, 2018

Figure 2

Philadelphia Population, 2000-19

Philadelphia’s median household income remained below those of all the comparison cities except Cleveland and Detroit. Since 2016, the local income figure has risen by 11 percent.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, one-year estimates, 2018, Table B19013 (Median Household Income in the Past 12 Months)

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

Philadelphia’s population rose for the 13th straight year in 2019, bringing the total increase to more than 95,000 since 2006. For the past few years, population growth has been relatively modest; in 2019, the annual increase was fewer than 500 residents.

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, “2000-2010 Intercensal Estimates”; U.S. Census Bureau, “Population and Housing Unit Estimates,” 2011-19

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000

ClevelandDetroit

PhiladelphiaPittsburghBaltimoreHoustonChicagoPhoenix

U.S.Boston

Washington $85,203$71,834

$61,937

$57,238$51,203$51,000

$47,417$46,116

$31,283$29,953

$57,957

1,440,000

1,460,000

1,480,000

1,500,000

1,520,000

1,540,000

1,560,000

1,580,000

1,600,000

'19'18'17'16'15'14'13'12'11'10'09'08'07'06'05'04'03'02'01'00

1,514,563 1,505,455

1,498,493 1,492,882

1,493,802 1,490,861

1,488,710 1,493,309

1,499,731

1,514,694 1,528,283

1,540,466

1,551,824

1,558,313

1,565,460

1,571,065

1,576,051

1,580,601

1,583,592

1,584,064

5

Figure 4

Unemployment Rate, 2009-19

Philadelphia’s unemployment rate continued to fall in 2019, averaging 5.2 percent for the year. Although still higher than the national and regional numbers, the city’s rate is lower than it has been in decades—another indicator of Philadelphia’s expanding economy.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/lau; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey, https://www.bls.gov/cps

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

City of Philadelphia

U.S.

Metro Philadelphia

2017 2018 2019

9.7% 10.6% 10.7% 10.9% 10.3% 8.1% 7.1% 6.8%

9.3% 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9%

8.3% 8.8% 8.5% 8.4% 7.8% 6.2% 5.4% 5.1%

6.2%

4.4%

4.7%

5.5%

3.9%

4.2%

5.2%

3.7%

3.9%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

6

Figure 5

Unemployment in Comparable Cities, 2019

Figure 6

Job Growth and Decline, 2009-19

Philadelphia had the fourth-highest unemployment rate among the cities used for comparison, behind Detroit, Washington, and Cleveland. In 2019, unemployment fell slightly in all cities listed, decreasing the most in Cleveland, Baltimore, and Houston; in those cities, it dropped by half a percentage point or more. In Philadelphia, it dropped by 0.3 percent.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/lau

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

In 2019, the job market in the city outperformed the country as a whole for the third time in the past four years, expanding by 2.4 percent—a historically high rate of growth. For the year, Philadelphia had an average of 741,200 jobs, more than at any time since 1990.

Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics, https://www.bls.gov/ces; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Metro Area Employment, Hours, and Earnings, https://www.bls.gov/sae

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10%

BostonHoustonChicago

PittsburghPhoenix

BaltimorePhiladelphia

ClevelandWashington

Detroit 8.7%

5.5%

5.4%

5.1%

4.2%

4.1%

3.9%

3.7%

2.6%

5.2%

-5%

-4%-3%-2%-1%0%1%2%3%4%

20192018201720162015201420132012201120102009

-1.6%

-4.3%

0.7% 0.5%1.2%

0.4%

1.7%

0.5%

1.6% 1.6% 1.6%1.3%

1.9%1.5% 1.5%

2.1% 2.2%

1.4%

2.4%2.0%1.8%

-0.7%

PhiladelphiaU.S.

7

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

DetroitCleveland

PhiladelphiaBaltimore

PittsburghHouston

U.S.PhoenixBoston

ChicagoWashington 79.1%

76.7%

76.5%

74.6%

74.0%

72.5%

71.8%

70.1%

68.2%

64.2%

76.4%

Figure 7

Labor Force Participation Rate, 2018

Among the comparison cities, Philadelphia had the third-lowest labor force participation rate among residents ages 16-64. The labor force consists of those who are employed or actively looking for work.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, one-year estimates, 2018, Table B23001 (Sex by Age by Employment Status for the Population 16 Years and Over), https://data.census.gov

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

Figure 8

Percentage of College Graduates, 2018Adults 25 and older

In 2018, the percentage of Philadelphians with a college degree exceeded 30 percent for the first time and was up from 21 percent a decade earlier. In this regard, however, Philadelphia still lags behind many of the other comparison cities and the national average.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, one-year estimates, 2018, Table S1501 (Educational Attainment)

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%

DetroitCleveland

PhoenixPhiladelphia

U.S.Houston

BaltimoreChicago

PittsburghBoston

Washington 60.4%

51.4%

43.8%

33.1%

32.9%

32.6%

30.9%

28.9%

17.0%

15.5%

39.4%

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Figure 9

Homeownership, 2008-18

In 2013, it appeared that Philadelphia, long known as a city of homeowners, was on the verge of becoming a majority-renter city. But the most recent data shows that owner-occupied residential units outnumber rented ones by more than 33,000. Philadelphia remains an anomaly among older cities in the Northeast and Midwest, where renters are in the majority.

*Note: In September 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau identified an error in some of its 2017 data for Philadelphia. The Census Bureau does not plan to update the data, so Pew will not use 2017 data from Philadelphia in the affected topic areas.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, one-year estimates, 2018, Table B25003 (Tenure)

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

340,000

20182017*201620152014201320122011201020092008

325,179

311,376

311,284

311,303302,551

297,098

300,561

306,207

302,498

320,690

253,084258,459

264,129

265,126277,323

285,430277,301

275,397

277,707287,543

Owner-occupied

Renter-occupied

9

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

20192018201720162015201420132012201120102009

947 984

3,9733,666

3,1753,389

4,566

2,175

1,552

2,8153,239

Figure 10

Residential Building Permits Issued in Philadelphia, 2009-19By unit

In 2019, Philadelphia’s Department of Licenses and Inspections issued permits for 41 percent more residential units than in the previous year, reaching the highest level this century. Legislation reducing the city’s tax abatement on new residential construction will take effect at the beginning of 2021.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits Survey, https://www.census.gov/construction/bps, based on data from Philadelphia’s Department of Licenses and Inspections

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

10

Figure 11

Percentage of Residents Paying at Least 30% of Income in Rent, 2018

Nearly 54 percent of Philadelphia renters spent at least 30 percent of their income on rent and utilities. Financial experts say households should spend no more than that amount on housing costs, including utilities. Among the comparison cities, only Detroit had a higher rate. And about 32 percent of Philadelphia renters spent at least 50 percent of their income on rent, the highest rate among the 10 cities.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, one-year estimates, 2018, Table B25070 (Gross Rent as a Percentage of Household Income in the Past 12 Months)

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Washington

Phoenix

Chicago

Baltimore

U.S.

Pittsburgh

Houston

Boston

Cleveland

Philadelphia

Detroit 56.9%

53.9%

51.3%

50.1%

49.7%

49.7%

49.4%

48.6%

46.9%

46.5%

50.2%

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Figure 12

Homicides in Philadelphia, 2009-19

The number of homicides has increased by nearly 45 percent since 2013. With an average of nearly one homicide per day in 2019, Philadelphia had its highest death toll since 2007, when 391 homicides were recorded.

Source: Philadelphia Police Department

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

0

50100

150

200

250

300

350

400

20192018201720162015201420132012201120102009

302 306 326

331

246 248280 277

315353 356

Figure 13

Homicide Rates, 2019Homicides per 100,000 residents

In 2019, Philadelphia’s homicide rate rose to 22.5 per 100,000 residents, up from 16 five years earlier—an increase that has come while homicide rates have been falling in several other cities. The homicide rate has also been rising in Baltimore; its 2019 rate was more than 2.5 times higher than Philadelphia’s.

Sources: Police departments of all 10 cities; population numbers drawn from U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, one-year estimates, 2018, Table B01003 (Total Population)

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

BostonPhoenix

HoustonPittsburgh

ChicagoPhiladelphiaWashington

ClevelandDetroit

Baltimore 57.838.8

30.7

22.518.2

12.312.0

8.45.5

23.6

12

Figure 14

Shooting Victims in Philadelphia, 2009-19

Figure 15

Major Crime in Philadelphia, 2009-19

The number of shooting victims in the city rose again in 2019, to its highest level since 2010. Since 2014, Philadelphia has had a nearly 40 percent increase in the number of shooting victims.

Source: Philadelphia Police Department

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

In 2019, violent crime—which includes murder, rape, assault, and robbery—increased by 7.2 percent in Philadelphia from the previous year, the first year-to-year increase since 2015. Total major crimes in the city increased by about 2.5 percent. Major crimes include both violent crimes and property crimes such as burglary and theft.

Source: Philadelphia Police Department

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

0200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

20192018201720162015201420132012201120102009

1,3611,471 1,407

1,279

1,128 1,047

1,238

1,280 1,2011,403 1,463

010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000

20192018201720162015201420132012201120102009

74,485 75,712 77,465 74,479 70,526 68,815 65,544 64,544 63,403 63,662 65,227

18,982 18,328 18,282 17,641 17,004 15,771 16,062 15,236 15,045 14,273 15,299

Violent crime

Total major crimes

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Figure 16

Poverty and Deep Poverty in Philadelphia, 2008-18

Philadelphia’s poverty and deep poverty rates have returned to the levels recorded before the Great Recession. Even so, the city still has the highest poverty rate among the 10 most populous U.S. cities; Houston has the second highest, at 20.4 percent. In 2018, the poverty line for a household of four was $25,100, and the deep poverty line was $12,550.

*Note: In September 2019, the U.S. Census Bureau identified an error in some of its 2017 data for Philadelphia. The Census Bureau does not plan to update the data, so Pew will not use 2017 data from Philadelphia in the affected topic areas.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, one-year estimates, 2008-18, Table B17002 (Ratio of Income to Poverty Level in the Past 12 Months)

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

20182017*201620152014201320122011201020092008

24.1% 25.0%26.7%

28.4%

26.9%26.3% 26.0% 25.8% 25.7%

24.5%

11.1% 12.0%13.5% 13.1%

12.3% 12.2% 12.3% 12.2% 12.3%

11.1%

Deep poverty rate

Poverty rate

14

Figure 17

Unintentional Drug Overdose Deaths in Philadelphia, 2009-19

For the second year in a row, the number of unintentional drug overdose deaths in Philadelphia was approximately 1,100, down from the 2017 peak but still one of the highest per capita rates in the country. At the end of 2019, Mayor Jim Kenney’s administration concluded the Philadelphia Resilience Project, its emergency response to the opioid epidemic. In April 2020, city officials are expected to release a five-year plan outlining strategies to reduce the number of opioid deaths in Kensington, the hardest-hit neighborhood.

Source: Philadelphia Department of Public Health

© 2020 The Pew Charitable Trusts

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

20192018201720162015201420132012201120102009

419 387489 513

460

628702

907

1,2171,116 1,100

est.

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