Problembereich Wasser

Globale und regionale PotentialeBedarf und Dargebot

Ilona BärlundTim aus der Beek

Martina FlörkeManuel Punzet

Christof SchneiderEllen Teichert

Anja VoßFrank Voß

CESR-Symposium 2009, Kassel, 1.10.2009

Einleitung

Startpunkt- zu viel und/oder zu wenig Wasser- Gleichgewicht von Wasserdargebot und –nutzung

Herangehensweise - Werkzeug mit Komponenten des Wasserhaushaltes- Modellierung und Szenariostudien- unterschiedliche Skalen: Globus, Kontinent, Region, Einzugsgebiet, Rasterzelle

Sich verändernde Umgebung- Klima- sozio-ökonomische Aspekte

Globale Studien

Globale StudienGEO-4, Global Environment Outlook

Globale StudienGEO-4, Global Environment Outlook

Das Werkzeug

…

population

per capita income

Input data sets WaterGAP submodels Results (current conditionsand scenarios)

…

soils

land use

climate

Water use modelwater withdrawals and consumption(domestic, electricity production, manufacturing, irrigation, livestock)

Hydrological modelwater balance components, river dischargeand groundwater recharge

water availability, wateruse, water stress indicators

observeddischarge

calibration

technologicalchange

irrigated area and number of livestock

manufacturing valueadded

…

population

per capita income

Input data sets WaterGAP submodels Results (current conditionsand scenarios)

…

soils

land use

climate

Water use modelwater withdrawals and consumption(domestic, electricity production, manufacturing, irrigation, livestock)

Hydrological modelwater balance components, river dischargeand groundwater recharge

water availability, wateruse, water stress indicators

observeddischarge

calibration

technologicalchange

irrigated area and number of livestock

manufacturing valueadded

WaterGAP – Water, Global Assessment and Prognosis

Globale Studien - WaterMIP

Global Hydrological Model

Land Surface Hydrological Model

Vegetation Model

Globale Studien - WaterMIPDurchfluss, Beispiel Amazonas

Amazonas

Dis

ch

arg

e (m

3 s

-1)

Globale Studien - WaterMIP

a) long term mean monthly runoff (GL - baseline run)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

run

off

[km

3/m

on

th]

15% - 85% QuantileMEANMINMAXMedian

b) long term mean monthly runoff (GL - all scenarios)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

jan feb mar apr mai jun jul aug sep oct nov dec

run

off

[km

3/m

on

th]

15% - 85% QuantileMEANMINMAXMedian

Modellentwicklung

WaterGAP2

30’ (0.5°)

WaterGAP3

5’

WaterGAP - Hydrologie

Modellentwicklung

Q0 , C0

Cd , qd

Q1 , C1

WaterGAP - Wasserqualität

ModellentwicklungBSB-Belastung

Szenariostudien

Szenariostudien

Total water withdrawals in Europe in 2050

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

FoE SuE

2000 2050

scenario

tota

l w

ater

wit

hd

raw

als

[km

³/ye

ar]

2000

2050 FoE

2050 SuE

Reduktion im Vergleich zum Referenzjahr

-33%

SCENES PEP2 storyline Sustainability Eventually (SuE) „Water demand is strongly reduced by water savings and behavioural changes. Towards 2050, a balance is reached between water supply and water demand“

SuE NA WE NE SE EEc EEe WA Overall

2025 ++ - + + 0 - + 0

2050 + - 0 + 0 - + -0

Low decrease

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0Change of population [fraction in 25 years

with respect to 1 now]

Deg

ree

of m

embe

rshi

p [-

]

0.85 0.95&

SzenariostudienKlimaänderung - Temperatur

Szenariostudien

Narew - Suraz

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

01.1

1.64

01.1

2.64

01.0

1.65

01.0

2.65

01.0

3.65

01.0

4.65

01.0

5.65

01.0

6.65

01.0

7.65

01.0

8.65

01.0

9.65

01.1

0.65

01.1

1.65

01.1

2.65

01.0

1.66

01.0

2.66

01.0

3.66

01.0

4.66

01.0

5.66

01.0

6.66

Date

Q [

m3/

sec]

Base IPCM4 MIMR MPEH5

Durchfluss – Beispiel Narew

Szenariostudien

Szenariostudien

Sectoral water withdrawals in 2050 (pan-Europe )

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MF PF SeF SuF

2000 2050

scenario

sect

ora

l w

wd

/to

tal

ww

d [

%]

agriculture

manufacturing

electricity

domestic

Fallbeispiel Mittelmeer

Abflussbildung(GW + HOF)

Kleiner Ausblick

Herausforderungen- Datenverfügbarkeit und Modelleffizienz- Verknüpfung der Skalen- Land und Wasser

Antworten zu Fragen- Schicksal der Wasserressourcen (hotspots)- Unterstützung von Management & Politik