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Selecting and Supporting Future Graduates in British Columbia
by
Stephen Joseph Salem
B.A. Vancouver Island University, 2005
University of British Columbia
A GRADUATING PAPER SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS
FOR THE DEGREE OF
MASTER OF EDUCATION
in
THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES
(Higher Education)
THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA
(Vancouver)
December 2012
Stephen Joseph Salem 2012
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Abstract
The educational journey is long and difficult. Students who engage in further studies face
many challenges as they progress towards a degree or other certification. These barriers are both
academic and non-academic, and higher educational institutions need to be aware of these
challenges in order to support students in their journey to credential completion. This essay will
provide an overview of factors considered relevant to success both from the students perspective
and the institutions perspective. This journey begins long before a student applies and in many
cases continues off and on for the rest of his or her life.
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Table of Contents
Abstract ..................................................................................................................................................... i
Recruiting Future Graduates ............................................................................................................ 1
BCs Higher Education Landscape ............................................................................................................. 4
Educational Opportunity .............................................................................................................................. 9
Prediction Using Academic Merit ............................................................................................................ 14
Student Retention and Study Progress .................................................................................................. 16
Educational Event Histories ...................................................................................................................... 19
English as a Second Language ................................................................................................................... 19
Mature Students ............................................................................................................................................. 20
Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................................ 22
References ............................................................................................................................................ 25
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Recruiting Future Graduates
The educational journey is long and difficult. Students who engage in further studies face
many challenges as they progress towards a degree or other certification. These barriers are both
academic and non-academic, and higher educational institutions need to be aware of these
challenges in order to support students in their journey to credential completion. This essay will
provide an overview of factors considered relevant to success both from the students perspective
and the institutions perspective. This journey begins long before a student applies and in many
cases continues off and on for the rest of his or her life (Andres & Offerhaus, 2012).
As mentioned, the path is fraught with many barriers, the first of which is gaining access to
a post-secondary program because institutions only have a limited number of seats. This means
students must compete for entry. A common practise in Canadian post-secondary institutions is
the evaluation of eligibility by assessing an applicants academic background. This is an important
measurement because having the minimum academic background ensures that the student will
have some basic understanding of theories. Basing entrance solely on previous academic
achievement is an imperfect measure because it often fails to account for motivation, interest,
aptitude, and different social, economic and cultural differences that restrict or provide access to
higher education. Resumes and statements of intent can be used to evaluate softer skills like
interest, but it much harder to identify and correct for social, economic and cultural barriers.
Achieving the ideal or fairest admission criteria can be quite complicated and costly, but there
may be a good return on investment as well-supported, academically prepared students should
have a better chance of persisting through to completion.
While post-secondary institutions wrestle with the rubric to determine if an applicant
should be admitted to the program, this is a singular event to the student. Once admitted the
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student faces the real challenge of actually finishing the program. Hopefully, they have chosen the
right field of study because they must now commit time, resources and energy to persisting through
to completion. Those with access barriers may now face burdens, and once again post-secondary
institutions need to provide support to ensure all students succeed. Success is an interesting
concept because it looks different depending on your perspective. Students who begin at one
institution but complete at a different one, may not be seen by the original institution as a success;
however, in the eyes of the student they have been quite successful. As we unpack access and
retention themes, we must keep in mind that institutional and personal goals are not always the
same.
Before we go too much further, let me reveal my personal biases. I currently work as the
Admissions Supervisor at the British Columbia Institute of Technology (BCIT). I have a solid
understanding of evaluation of previous academics for entry, but I have questioned the fairness and
legitimacy of this metric because previous academics do not measure current motivation. I myself
was an under-achiever in high school: immature and unfocused. It did not engage in post-
secondary studies until a workplace injury forced me to reconsider higher education. With
increased effort, I achieved better marks. In my case, I was allowed to begin studies because a
teacher waived the minimum English requirement for me; otherwise, I would have been required to
spend additional time and money upgrading. As the student, I benefitted from this individual
assessment. As the institution, I wonder how we can recruit and retain academically successful
students making individual assessments of motivation, ability and aptitude.
Because access and retention is a broad subject, this essay is group into many sections. The
first will provide an overview of the post secondary educational system in British Columbia (BC)
because my understanding of entrance requirements, upgrading and student life is based in this
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system. This provides a frame of reference for a more in depth discussion of social concerns about
access, retention and persistence. It draws on literature from the United States, Europe, the South
Pacific and other Canadian Provinces. This section will begin by exploring how the very act of
setting entrance requirementswhether academic or non-academicautomatically advantages
some groups and disadvantages others. Institutions should strive to remove disadvantages so
those with the talent and motivation are given the opportunity to participate, keeping in mind that
students must still accept any opportunity provided. This will be lead to section on academic
prediction, and an overview of student persistence, retention, integration and completion.
In BC there are some specific sub-populations that require special consideration. Those
assessing prior educational experience must be aware of global student mobility; especially, with
the BC government hoping to increase enrolment of international students in response to declining
high school graduates (Steffenhagen, 2011). Therefore language proficiency is an important
consideration for educational planners whether before admittance (e.g., testing and/or upgrading)
or after admittance (e.g., language support classes, tutors, etc.). Thus, there is a short section
discussing assessment English as a Second Language (ESL) applicants. This will be followed by a
section addressing the persistence and motivational concerns of mature students. These students
usually have taken many years away from education and have a number of life priorities that take
time away from studies. In BC there are a large number of mature students passing through the
higher education systemengaging and disengaging with various institutions at various stages in
their lives, and these students could help make up for program attrition at more advanced levels.
Institutions must recognize that as people age, their motivation and attitude towards higher
education changes also. Years after leaving high school many people return to the education
system as an effort to increase career opportunities. They follow a variety of adult educational
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paths to gain entry to and/or continue through post-secondary studies. Institutions must respond
to the needs of these academically mobile students to assist them in their educational goals (Andres
& Adamuti-Trache, 2008b; Andres & Offerhaus, 2012, Finnie & Mueller, 2008). Program
administrators at higher educational institutions have target enrolment numbers for limited seats;
thus, the academic bar must be set low enough to enable access for enough students to fill the
entry level of a program, but high enough to ensure that these students, once admitted, will have
the academic foundation to persist through to the advanced levels of a program. Provided a student
has chosen the right program and fits with his peers and professors, those who possess the
appropriate academic background should have a better chance of completing a credential. Once a
student graduates from post-secondary education, these individuals should experience increased
upward social and economic mobility. Technological education increases opportunities to gain
employment or to continue with more advanced educational studies. Post-secondary graduates
benefit the larger society by actively contributing to the provincial and global knowledge economy.
It cannot be understated that post-secondary education is a very important life shaping experience,
and it begins with the ability to access post-secondary training.
BCs Higher Education Landscape
Access to BC post-secondary education was dramatically increased in the 1960s. The
MacDonald Report (1962) was the catalyst for the myriad of access and transfer options currently
available to prospective students and adult learners in the province.
Prior to 1962 little development or diversification of post-secondary education had
occurred in British Columbia. [..., which] consisted of the University of British Columbia with
its satellite campus in Victoria, the tiny Notre Dame University in Nelson, one small private
college, and vocational schools (McArthur, 1997, p. 111-112).
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The MacDonald Report recommended the creation of two, four-year degree granting
colleges, but the provincial ministry went a step further and created two new full status
universities: Simon Fraser University in Burnaby and the University of Victoria, formerly Victoria
College. The report also recommended the creation of six two-year multi-purpose community
colleges, some of which were amalgamated with the federally constructed BC vocational
institutions. (Dennison, 1997; McArthur 1997). The report emphasised a spirit of excellence in the
creation of university-transferable programs in regions outside the south west corner of the
province. Individuals could take academically recognized first and second year courses in their
home community and then complete the final two years at one of the three major universities to
earn a degree; ultimately, laying the foundation for the now widely accessed and articulated
provincial higher education system.
The early 1990s saw many of the community colleges evolving into university-colleges.
Initially, Malaspina, Cariboo and Okanagan colleges, which were located in the communities of
Nanaimo, Kamloops and Kelowna, respectively. These were followed by colleges in the Lower
Mainland (Kwantlen) and the Fraser Valley (University-College of the Fraser Valley) a few years
later. Planning was underway for a university in Northern BC, and the Open Learning Agency was
recognized to confer degrees through distance education. The Skills Now (1994) initiative saw the
creation of applied technological degrees offered through non-university institutions, with Emily
Carr College of Art and Design and BCIT designated to degree granting status (Dennison, 1997;
McArthur, 1997). This same year, university-colleges, once conferring degrees under the auspice of
one of the three major research universities, were granted the ability to confer their own
credentials (Metcalfe, Mazawi, Rubenson, Fisher, MacIvor & Meredith, 2007).
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The province is now home to eleven universities, eleven community colleges, and four
higher educational institutions. Many of these university designations were the result of significant
changes to the provincial higher educational structure that followed Plants (2007) Campus2020
report on Access and Excellence into post-secondary education in the province of British
Columbia. One of these changes saw institutions previously designated university-colleges,elevated
to the status of teaching universities, and the University of British Columbia, Simon Fraser
University and the University of Victoria would remain the provinces research universities(BCCAT,
2010b; Metcalfe et al., 2007; Plant 2007).1 Plant recognized the same geographic challenges as
Macdonald; however, the post-secondary landscape in 2007 had evolved significantly in terms of
population, programs, structures and facilities that now exist in the various regions of the province.
[At the core] is the principle of equal opportunity within a hierarchy of achievement and
ability. It envisions an unbroken educational freeway conveying learners from K-20 with
enough on and off ramps to accommodate every speed and circumstance... limited only by a
learners ability, ambitions, starting point and available time (Metcalfe et al., 2007).
Irregular educational paths were continued at the pre-entry level. The Access for All
initiative recommended that all pre-entry and access courses offered at provincial higher
educational institutions be recognized for entry into programs at any of the other post-secondary
institutions; thus ensuring BC residents substitute upgrading locally attended ABE courses for
published high school entrance requirements when they apply to provincial higher education
institutions. For students seeking admission to the various provincial post-secondary institutions,
1Added to this landscape are a number of institutions, like the University of Phoenix that specialize in internet
delivery are expanding student enrolments to levels that far exceed those at traditional post-secondary schools
(Coates & Morrison, 2011).
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they would receive entry credit from any recognized upgrading programs. (BCCAT, 2010a;
Dennison & Schuetze, 2004; Province of British Columbia, 2010). Since 2007, ABE in BC has been
offered free for Canadian citizens and landed immigrants ensuring financial barriers are removed
for adults needing academic upgrading to be eligible for post-secondary studies (Plant, 2007).
With such a kaleidoscope of academic and upgrading programs developed to overcome
unique barriers to BC higher education, many educational routes have and continue to be taken by
individuals who graduate from secondary school and mature into various life roles (e.g., parent,
spouse, employee). To illustrate the number of different educational routes available to students in
the BC system, Paths on Lifes Waybegan with the individuals choice to attend either a university, a
non-university or neither. At five-year intervals, educational outcomes for these individuals
included non-participation, non-completer, non-university completer, bachelors completer, and
first professional/graduate completer. This longitudinal survey has now documented 22-years of
life history for individuals who graduated from BC high school in 1988 (Andres & Offerhaus, 2012).
The credential completion rate was observed to increase as the sample aged, and just under two
thirds of men and women completed bachelors degrees or other non-university credentials. A
further nine percent of both genders went on to earn professional or graduate degrees (Andres,
2009b).
Andres and Adamuti-Trache (2008a) plotted 55 distinct post-secondary educational
trajectories and observed students who took many differentpathsto completing or not-completing
a credential. By correcting for entry timing and pace, 21 categories were identified with the highest
frequency of individuals going immediately from high school graduate to post-secondary graduate,
which meant earning a university or non-university credential by 1993. Those who continued into
further studies followed an advanced route by continuing into subsequent professional or graduate
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level studies. Other common BC post-secondary routes included transferthose who began non-
university, but completed a university degree,prolongedthose who took extended time to
complete, broaderthose who completed a non-university credential and continued on to
complete a university degree, delayedthose who did not start immediately after finishing high
school, non-completerthose who began, but discontinued, and non-participantsthose who never
entered into the post-secondary system (Andres, 2009b; Andres & Adamuti-Trache, 2008a).
Although non-participation in post-secondary education was initially reported at roughly 20%
(18% of women and 22% of men) by 2003 non-participation dropped to only 6% (Andres &
Adamuti-Trache, 2008b). While the overall variety of paths taken by BC high school graduates
shown to be quite extensive (Andres & Offerhaus, 2012), it still could not account for many other
individuals accessing the provinces higher education system (e.g., out of province, landed
immigrants, international students, upgraded high school drop-outs, etc.). Educators and
administrators must be aware of all of these different trajectories, and try to respond to the unique
needs of students on these different paths. This should ensure the success of both the individual
learner and the institution through maximizing enrolment at all educational levels.
Of interest to institutions like BCIT, which offer specialized vocational training, those
individuals who entered into a technical or vocational institution immediately following high school
and completed a credential (usually after two-years of study) were observed to be almost
completely disengaged with higher educational training ten years later. Although, the desire for
others in the sample to engaging in this type of study increased sample aged (Andres & Offerhaus,
2012), so with frequency of older students accessing specialized training, institutions may alter
recruitment practices to attract more students with prior post-secondary training.
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The BC post-secondary system shows success for students transferring between the
institutions located within it, so these successes must be occurring somewhat independently of
institutional retention practices. Over a students educational journey, he or she may sample a
variety of programs and courses, acquiring many credits, and, when he or she finds a program of
best fit, combine all previously earned credits to complete a credential (Andres, 2009b). Arguably,
it would be in the receiving institutions best interest to ensure that advanced level entry can be
easily attained, as recruitment of these students would replace any withdrawing students.
Institutions cannot force fit students into subjects that they lack interest or aptitude, and BC post-
secondary institutions will continue to exchange students progressing irregularly through their
academic experience (Andres & Adamuti-Trache, 2008b, 2009b; Andres & Offerhaus, 2012; Finnie,
Mueller & Sweetman, 2008; Finnie & Qui, 2008).
Educational Opportunity
Although the BC post-secondary system has unique articulation and student mobility
models, it evolved from older European and North American models. Historically, access to post-
secondary education was a system of sponsored mobilitybecause it was reserved primarily for the
children of the elite and for the education of the clergy. New discoveries, knowledge and inventions
increased demand for a more highly skilled work force, which, in turn, saw an increased demand for
higher education. With these changes, access evolved into a system based more upon previously
earned merit (e.g., high school grades, credentials, ability to speak Latin, athletics, etc.).
This provided an equal opportunity for individuals privileged enough to pursue post-
secondary studies to compete for an opportunity to study using previous academic achievements as
a uniform measure of assessment (Farwell, 2002; Hayton & Paczuska, 2002; Karabel, 2005). There
is a major flaw inherent to systems of contest mobilitybecause those who develop the interest and
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ambition to seek further studies, must also possess the talent, cultural and socio-economic
resources to compete for access to the system (Turner, 1960). Furthermore, increasing populations
saw physical space on campus restricting the number of students admitted to a program, so as
more young people demanded post-secondary education, stricter gate-keeping mechanisms were
established to evaluate suitability for entry into a program. To offset the social inadequacies in the
United States, affirmative action and special recruitment efforts targeted marginalized sub-
populations (Karabel, 2005).
Karabel (2005) chronicled the changing definition of merit at Harvard, Princeton and Yale.
These institutions based admissions primarily on the mastery of traditional curriculum (P. 5).
Because this included subjects like Latin, many minority groups were disadvantaged. As an
increasing number of Eastern Europe minorities became better educated in the 1920s, institutions
began defining merit through less academic means to more gentlemanly characteristics. For
example, applicants were judged based on sturdy character, sound body and proper social
backgrounds (p. 5). This criteria again benefited the elite Protestants who had the proper social
background to be considered an all-round man. Eastern European and Jewish people continued
to be disadvantaged because they were unfamiliar with the customs of the dominant Protestant
culture. Entry was based on grades in specific high schools and sponsorship. Academic ability
and effort became less important than participation in the elite social clubs, extra-curricular
activities and athletics; those who studied too hard were often the target of institutionally
supported bullying (Karabel, 2005).
By the 1950s, the Cold War saw elite universities struggling with talent loss. The Soviet
Union was winning the Space-race, so entry merit retuned to a more academic definition with
emphasis placed on SAT and extra-curricular activity, and less emphasis on birthright and the
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subjective traits of manliness. A number of categories were defined in the rubric for assessing
eligibility. These used combinations of high school grades, GPA, athletics, extracurricular activities,
referrals, children of alumni and ethnic background to evaluate eligibility and suitability. Entry
became a combination of contest and sponsored mobility.
The 1960s saw the rise of human rights and the move towards inclusive and more
culturally diverse admissions policies; this included a drastic increase in number of women, Jewish
and Black Americans being accepted into elite universities. Over the following decades, Harvard,
Yale and Princeton opened their doors to a greater number and diversity of minority populations
(Karabel, 2005). This brief history of the Big Three illustrates how the definition of merit is fluid
and tends to reflect the values and interests of those who have the power to impose their particular
cultural beliefs (Karabel, 2005, p. 5, quotations in original), and no matter how merit is defined, it
will benefit some groups while disadvantaging others (p. 3). Burbules et al. (1982)
recommended that equality[...mean] equal and fair in light of relevant similarities and difference
(p. 171); furthermore, attributes of need and merit have a large role in the provision or prevention
of access, and policy makers must determine distributions by balancing what persons deserve
against what limited resources permit (p. 174).
On the surface it appears that the dominant culture can easily impose a system to advantage
their children, but the social and economic benefits to those individuals who gain access to post-
secondary education are immense, and special interest groups continue to influence who gains
access. The protection of elite status conflicts with the forces of social inclusivity. These forces
were brought to light by Karabel (2005) who observed admissions to the Big Three is a history not
only of elite dominance, but of resistance by subordinate groups (p. 6).
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Administrators and institutional planners must continue to exhibit leadership in social and
economic opportunities for students from all social classes. This is not always easy because post-
secondary institutions are continually responding to the needs and interests of funding sources
(e.g., alumni, the government, business, etc.), internal agents (e.g., students, staff, faculty, etc.) and
socio-cultural movements (e.g., affirmative action, unions, etc.) to define who will have access to the
limited institutional seats. Personal, social, cultural, economic, cognitive and environmental
factors that impact on the students decision and ability to attend further studies must be given
special consideration and institutional support (Burbules et al., 1982, 1982; Evans, 1976). Any
disadvantagein essence, the opposite of meritis considered a need that must be overcome for
an individual to access and complete post-secondary studies. If a disadvantage warrants special
consideration, intervention occurs on the part of the recruiters, government or special interest
groups rectify the need, which may derive different social and racial problems on campus (Browne-
Miller, 1996).
While society grapples with fairness and equality, institutions are still using previous
academics to measure student motivation and possible success. Measureable qualities like
academics and athletics have inherent biases preventing fair access to committed students. This is
because actual effort required for these achievements is not accurately reflected in this measure.
High marks with low effort are indistinguishable from high marks with high effort. The latter
probably has qualities better suited to persisting though the duration of the post-secondary
training. The same can be said about results achieved by students with high ability but low effort
and those achieved by students with low ability but high effort (Burbules, Lord & Sherman, 1982).
It is hard to say which student would be more successful in post-secondary because the former,
while gifted with intelligence, may not have developed the study skills or commitment to complete
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a credential; the latter, may have strong academic habits, but lack the intelligence to grasp
advanced topics.
The possession of ability, merit and the removal of any access barriers still requires that an
individual accept the opportunity to engage in higher educational studies. Opportunity is a special
kind of choice where an individual must have access to the choice, the willingness to engage and the
aptitude to be successful (Burbules et al., 1982) Thus, opportunity is an evaluative as well as a
descriptive label (Burbules et al., 1982 p. 170). Ennis (1976) argued that the concept of equality of
educational opportunities is generally agreed upon as a goal of higher education, but found that the
application of this concept became quite subjective when defining what actually constitutes
education, the cultural value of this training and what it is meant by having an opportunity. Karabel
(2005) also identified equality of conditionsas a philosophical objective of educational opportunity
because access to higher education should not be influenced by wealth or social status. So, while
philosophically higher education tries to level access through scholarships and affirmative action,
few considerations can be made for an unwillingness to accept an opportunity due to cultural or
social beliefs (Barbules et al., 1982).
For example, working class individuals may pass on the opportunity to participate in higher
education as a strategy of risk avoidance, rather than a lack of inspiration or talent (Archer,
Leathwood & Hutchings, 2002, p. 107). The risk of attending higher education (e.g., cost, both in
time and money, uncertainty of knowledge application or career outcome, student loan repayment,
etc.) outweighs the benefits in the mind of the individual (e.g., career advancement, expansion of
personal knowledge, economic and social mobility, etc.).
Cultural challenges exist in the widening participation. Many advantages that traditional
choosersuniversity attendance is part of what they do (p. 25)have due to an adequate level or
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surplus of cultural, societal, economic and social capitals are educational choices are socially
constructed as habitusacquired in their upbringing (Macrae & Maguire, 2002). They identified that
non-traditional choosersfirst generation studentsoften lacked social and cultural capital, which
led to poor program choice and/or a lack of critical guidance required for them to better survive a
long term educational experience.
Although the rules of the meritocratic contests have been strongly influenced by social,
cultural, economic and academic forces, for the student who engages in the opportunity, access
represents a single transitional point on the journey through higher education. Once a student
begins this journey, they can look forward to the academic trials that lead to a credential. The
question of widening access is not just about recruitment, it is about student retention [... and] some
students are better placed to navigate a route through higher education and stay the course than
others (Evans, 2002, p. 25). The next section will address the topics of student persistence and the
science of predicting student success.
Prediction Using Academic Merit
In the prediction of student success, academic merit can account for about a third of the
factors pushing a student toward success (Willingham, 1990). However, academic merit can be
evaluated in a number of ways. For instance, Geiser and Santelices (2007) compared SAT test
scores with high school grade point average (HSGPA) as predictive measures of success overthe
four years of a program and on through to graduation. They found that the HSGPA were
consistently the strongest predictor of four year college outcomes for all academic disciplines,
campuses and freshman cohorts in the University of California Sample, and predictive weight
associated with HSGPA [increased] after the freshman year (Geiser & Santelices, 2007, p. 2). When
the analysis was controlled for campus and subject groupings, the coefficient for...HSGPA, actually
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[increased] (Geiser & Santelices, 2007, p. 21), yet close to two-thirds of variance was still left
unexplained by either HSGPA or SAT predictors. These results should not be surprising given the
many other factors that affect students undergraduate experiences after admissions, such as
financial aid, social support and academic engagement in college (Geiser & Santelices, 2007, p. 12).
The first year or two of college [can be] a difficult transition period for many students who
must adjust not only to the more rigorous academic standards of college but often as well to
the experience of being away from home for the first time [...] for those who do persist,
mean GPAs plummet well below what students have been accustomed to earning in high
school. (Gieser & Santelices, 2007, p. 17)
After this initial adjustment, student grades showed gradual improvements, and HSGPA
remained the stronger predictor. The difference in predictability between HSGPA and SAT may be
the result of method covariance. For instance, high school courses have a similar method of
instruction, assessment and teacher-student interaction as used in post-secondary courses, and the
SAT only measures academic competence through a single means during the brief testing
timeframe (Geiser & Santelices, 2007).
Ramist, Lewis and McCamley (1990) found that courses with the highest correlation to the
SAT (i.e., most predictive) were quantitative and scientific in subject. The courses with the lowest
correlations (i.e., least predictive) were less traditionally academic subjects, such as remedial
English, music, art and physical education; furthermore, students in the lower third percentile
demonstrated lower predictability of freshman grade point average (FGPA, Ramist et al., 1990).
Adding to this, there was very little change in the validity coefficient observed for the top third
percentile. Grades of students in the lower third tended to be less predictable, which may be due in
part to available learner support services within a given institution. The offering of these services
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could allow academically weaker students an additional opportunity to learn/reinforce the
necessary foundational knowledge. Alternatively, lower third students may self-select courses that
they have more aptitude toward; while the courses that attract a higher calibre of students may
have inadvertently biased grading scales due to the historic and now expected performance
students with stronger academic backgrounds (Ramist et al., 1990).
Student Retention and Study Progress
The concepts of student retentionfrom an institutional perspective and study progressfrom
a student perspective are complicated by both (a) the academic and social relationships between
the institute and the student (Andres & Carpenter, 1997; Tinto, 1988), and (b) the provincial
structure enabling the ease of student mobility in the post-secondary environment (Dennison,
1997, Schuetze & Day, 2001). It is generally understood that the better a student integrates into the
educational environment, the more likely the individual will progress through a program to
graduation.
What does integration mean then? To a student, they may integrate both socially and
academically, yet as they learn more about the chosen discipline, they may not like the educational
or professional outcomes. For the student, education is a significant decision that impacts the rest
of his or her life, so it is reasonable to assume that he or she will continue to explore or discover
new career and/or other educational opportunities even after commencement of studies into a
program. This results in the transition of academically successful students who discontinued study
in one field before the completion of a credential, and transferred to a different program or
institution that may have a better fit (Andres et al., 2007; Martinello, 2008; Schuetze & Day, 2001).
This effect has been magnified in BC where the provincial government has facilitated the
development of an articulated post-secondary system enabling ease of student mobility among the
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various public post-secondary institutions with the assurance of credit for previously completed
subject matter (Andres & Adamuti-Trache, 2008a; BC Council on Admissions and Transfer, BCCAT,
2010a; Dennison, 1997; McArthur, 1997; Metcalfe et al., 2007).
Integration into the educational environment also involves the ability to learn. For instance,
faculty and staff who were members of the Association of American Universities, were asked about
the characteristics of a well-prepared and successful student. A number of skills were identified,
which Conley (2003) labelled habits of the mind. These habits included aptitudes like (a) critical
thinking, (b) problem solving, (c) an openness to critical feedback, and (d) the ability to use
acquired knowledge rather than simply regurgitating it. Many of the faculty and staff interviewed
suggested that these habits are somewhat more important than just simply high school grades.
They still support the assessment of incoming students because skills would be required for
students to be successful in high school and, provided students apply themselves, these skills
should carry forward into post-secondary.
So program choice, foundational knowledge, and the ability to learn are some factors in
student integration; however, there are many other factors that have an impact on progress
throughout a program. In an exploration of student success, Van Overwalle (1989) observed mid-
term results, the efficiency of study time and academic self-esteem as the best indicators of final
exam success. The academic confidence of successful students was moderated by personal
characteristics that included, but were not limited to, prior knowledge, study effort and time
commitments, interest in the subject, ability to understand lectures and fear of exams (Van
Overwalle, 1989). The influence and expectation for study originated both internally and externally
to the student, and were either more or less controllable by the student.
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An external controllablefactor, for example, would be the help and support available from
other students and faculty. External to the student because it hinges on the willingness of peers to
provide support, but it is controllable because the student can chose to engage in this manner of
study or not. An example of an internal uncontrollablefactor would be test anxiety. It is internal
because its a feeling that resonates from within the individual, yet it is irrational, largely
uncontrollable and difficult to suppress (Van Overwalle,1989).
Due to the multitude of influences on a student, prediction of academic completion is
strongest in the first few terms, but the influences diminish over time. In a case study at the
University of Manitoba, Cyrenne and Chan (2010) found that high school GPA still had a strong
correlation to student success. They observed that high school grades were a good indicator of a
students initial academic success; however, as time progressed, other factors like academic fit,
educational and career expectations, and a students commitment were all found to exert a greater
influence on longer term study progress than high school grades.
In a similar study, Beekhoven et al. (2003) observed secondary school GPA was a good
indicator of a students initial ability, having a strong positive effect on the study progress for first
year Dutch students; however, this influence decreased in subsequent terms with completed
courses showing a stronger influence on study progress. This supports the findings of OHallaran
and Russell (1980) who found that the influence of high school on performance in a part-time math
course decreased significantly after two years with the authors stating that no matter how
accurate and reliable an earlier measure, it will not account for later changes in a students attitude,
interests and career aspirations (p. 546). These factors tend to complicate research evaluating the
predictive validity of entrance requirements.
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Educational Event Histories
A common observationtechnique in higher education is the longitudinal study of term by term
progress through a program. Desjardins, Ahlburg and McCall (1999) usedone competing and two
single risk modelsto identify the timing of four possible student outcome variables(a) continue,
(b) drop-out and do not return during the study period, (c) first stop-out, or (d) graduationover a
seven year program, and they found that students were less likely to stop-out if they entered a
program with a higher GPA; however, students with transfer credit were more likely to stop-out in
year one. This study found that a higher GPA had a negative effect on drop-out (i.e., students were
less likely to experience drop-out), and the authors recommended that institutions practice
monitoring student grades as early as possible in a program to improve student retention and
success (Desjardins et al., 1999), and over the credential duration, continuous enrolment and
continuous improvements in grades were considered to be more important than just simply first
year grades in the completion of a credential. GPA was found to be a powerful predictor [...as] one
grade increase in GPA more than doubles a students chance of graduating (Desjardins, McCall,
Ahlburg & Mage, 2002). Interestingly, longitudinal research has observed voluntary departure
behaviour was observed by academically successful students who discontinued studies (Ishitani,
2003). Indicating that factors other than academic knowledge influence the students ability to
succeed.
English as a Second Language
With student integration playing such an important role in student retention and success,
second language speakers are disadvantaged both in verbal translation of classroom instruction
and in conversations with peers. The second language socialization theory describes the link
between linguistic and socio-cultural knowledge as individuals are socialized into different groups
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and social context in which they seek membership (Zappa-Hollman, 2007, p. 459). Generally, ESL
applicants must demonstrate a minimum level of English, and this requirement presents a barrier
both to international students and to those who have immigrated to Canada and wish to pursue
further education. Golder (2006) described English assessment as a long-term barrier to new
Canadians resuming previous professional occupations, but the enforcement of the English
requirement was supported by Coley (1999) who addressed the temptation for setting the entry
level too low for ESL students.
In a study of Australian institutions, Coley (1999) argued against accepting GCE English
tests taken overseas because ESL applicants were only being tested for reading and writing
components, and not being tested for listening and speaking components. A majority of the
institutions surveyed in this study used The British Council and The National Academic Recognition
Information Centre guide (1999) to determine equivalencies for GCSE/GCE levels in order to admit
foreign students. Institutions were further advised to align entry requirements with the levels
recommended by international testing agencies (e.g., TOEFL) to ensure that these students were
successful. This supported Spinks and Hos (1984) findings that IELTs results have good predictive
value if properly used because this language test assesses all four components.
Mature Students
Older students face unique challenges when undertaking a long-term educational
commitment, and when encouraging the mature student to embark on the risky endeavour of
further education, practical matters must be considered for them to be successful. For instance,
providing stable timetables well in advance of study to allow for the planning of daily activities like
childcare, work, and commuting (Dinsdale, 2002). In many educational systems, access programs
have been developed to provide mature students the ability to gain entry to higher education.
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Similar to the Canadian educational system, Carey (2002) reviewed how access courses
developed in the 1970s in Britain, have successfully increased participation by under-represented
and economically disadvantaged adults. Attendance in 1999 had risen to 37,726 students
registered at 457 institutionswomen made up three quarters of these access students. With
three different credentials available, many of these programs focused more on learning skills, than
just the acquisition of a large body of knowledge. The universities in Britain readily accepted
applicants who employed this educational route because the observed success/failure ratio of
access students and traditional students were roughly the same in the subsequent higher
educational programs (Carey, 2002).
A small qualitative study of seven students who dropped out of pre-entry courses in the UK
examined barriers to success for mature students (Reay et al., 2002). Those who abandoned
training expressed difficulty juggling work, and/or family obligations, and/or logistical difficulties
in arranging for all their commitments. A lack of prior-knowledge led to a lack of academic self-
esteem in many of the respondents, and a low socio-economic status also factored into the
withdrawals. The consequence for [upgrading] students not having adequate finances is that they
cannot afford travel, decent accommodations, or even essential course materials (Reay et al., 2002,
p. 10). Although Reay et al. (2002) made a case that financing was a significant issue for mature
students, they did not compare it to the pre-entry experience of those who completed and
continued into subsequent post-secondary studies. It would have been interesting to see if
successful mature students in the same cohort faced the same financial, family, and social
obligations, but developed better strategies to cope with these pressures.
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Conclusion
Students who have met requirements should be confident that they have the appropriate
academic foundation to understand the content of the program and the skill to cope with the
programs rigor, yet persisting to graduation will require more than just foundational knowledge.
As students progress through a program, resources like money and time begin to outweigh pre-
entry grades. Students who do not meet minimum requirements would need to leverage social and
economic capital before even beginning post-secondary studies, and if under-qualified students are
admitted before obtaining a minimum foundational knowledge, they would require additional
institutional support which would be over and above any classroom time assigned homework. This
could have a negative impact on the student by adding extra courses and/or tutoring, which
increases the academic time commitment and could lead to burn-out.
One could argue that an under-qualified but highly motivated student could overcome the
academic challenges created through a lack of foundational knowledge in a subject, but an alternate
argument could be made that these students have been set up to fail. Unless it was coupled with an
increase in corresponding academic support resources, these under-qualified students will have
more difficulty and less chance of completing the credential (Willingham, Lewis, Morgan, & Ramist,
1990).
Under-qualified students may adversely affect their peers; for example, students who lack
the appropriate background knowledge may ask more questions for clarity on basic concepts in the
classroom. On the other hand, stronger students may benefit by having peers to help, which may
improve their learning through tutoring and mentoring weaker students (Oakes, 1987). This
presents the first big complication involved in predictive assessment: peer influence.
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How could an institution possibly match students together who will form a high
performing team? (Leadership Seminar, 2012) And isnt the ability to work well both
independently and with others, skills students should learn during their post-secondary
experience? By asking these questions, we must resign ourselves to the fact that, although peer
interaction is important factor in a students persistence, it happens naturally in the educational
environment. Without a significant increase in resources, how would an institution determine
and/or optimize and/or correct for interactions between the students within each cohort every
term? What characteristics would be evaluated, by whom and how?
Another complication arises in assessing for motivation and commitment. These factors,
while considered important, are subject to events in an individuals life at a given time. How does
the institution predict a students long-term motivation and commitment to persist? Although
these skills are necessary to complete a degree, maybe these characteristics should be exercised
and developed throughout the post-secondary program rather than evaluated before commencing.
Appropriate non-academic support must be offered to guide students to develop and hone
motivational skill and commitment over the course of their post-secondary study.
We must now ask whether a student can and/or should be evaluated for minimum
commitment and motivation? Completion of high school with good marks is considered a reflection
of a students commitment and motivation while he or she was in high school, and it is hoped that
these attributes will carry forward into higher education. Enrolment in upgrading courses could be
considered another sign that an individual is motivated with completion of these courses being
another indicator. As we accept this reasoning, we must keep in mind the changing motivation and
commitment levels of individuals at various stages of their lives. On an individual level, assessment
of maturity, professionalism and motivation can be made somewhat accurately, but how does the
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institution evaluate for self-efficacy or academic confidence? While natural abilities, aptitudes and
peer integration have a strong influence on student success, they are very difficult to accurately
quantify for predictive assessment unless a personal meeting is conducted for every prospective
student. A practice that would require increased resources for eligibility assessments. This means
many higher educational institutions will continue to rely on past academic performance as
predictive of the success for the majority of prospective students.
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