DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481...

13
DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS STUDENT POTENTIAL ANALYSIS

Transcript of DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481...

Page 1: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS

STUDENT POTENTIAL ANALYSIS

Page 2: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS 1

B U I L D I N G P E R M I T S

020004000600080001000012000140001600018000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Building Permits vs. Enrollment

Units in Single-Family Structures Units in All Multi-Family Structures Enrollment

Page 3: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS 2

S I N G L E FA M I LY Y I E L D S – S Y 1 7 1 8

<150K 150K - 200K 200K - 250K 250K - 300K 300K - 350K 350K - 400K 400K - 450K 450K - 500K 500K - 550K 550K - 600K 600K - 650K 650K - 700K > 700K

> 35 Years 0.06 0.43 0.52 0.38 0.55 0.34 0.66 0.80 0.29 0.33

31 - 35 0.48 0.58 0.45 0.70 0.83 0.41 0.83 0.38 0.62

26 - 30 0.57 0.23 0.40 0.70 0.60 1.13 0.59 0.77 0.65 0.63

21 - 25 1.04 0.33 0.65 0.77 0.76 0.79 0.63 1.01 0.76 0.80

16 - 20 0.76 0.68 0.61 0.50 1.30 1.02 0.60 0.25 0.72

11 - 15 0.54 0.88 0.36 0.16 0.64 0.52

6 - 10 0.60 0.13 0.39

< 5 Years N/A

Districtwide Yield by Price 0.10 0.52 0.48 0.52 0.73 0.60 0.77 0.62 0.82 0.65 1.01 0.25 0.72 0.53

Average # of Bedrooms 2.31 3.12 3.29 2.86 3.45 3.50 3.55 3.62 3.65 3.89 3.96 3.63 3.87

Average # of Baths 2.00 2.04 2.25 1.98 2.55 2.76 2.92 3.09 3.34 3.94 3.87 3.79 4.22

Average Lot Size 0.54 0.29 0.37 0.50 0.51 0.39 0.69 0.87 1.07 0.62 1.01 1.39 1.29

K-12 Subdivision Yields, Crossreferenced by Median Age &

Current Assessed Value

Average Assessed Value Districtwide Yield by Age

Med

ian

Subd

ivis

ion

Age

Hou

sing

Sto

ck

Stat

istic

s

<150K 150K-200K 200K-250K 250K-300K 300K-350K 350K-400K 400K-450K 450K-500K 500K-550K 550K-600K 600K-650K 650K-700K >700K TOTAL

> 35 Years 2,569 2,198 674 1,005 395 347 130 368 14 7,700

31 - 35 107 2,127 379 378 738 87 72 8 3,896

26 - 30 117 26 382 281 610 162 85 183 125 1,971

21 - 25 157 12 144 682 687 194 71 300 320 2,567

16 - 20 76 175 149 22 145 122 416 108 1,213

11 - 15 1,238 8 364 19 351 1,980

6 - 10 10 8 18

< 5 Years 0

TOTAL 2,793 4,508 1,523 2,940 2,263 1,770 920 294 517 950 300 108 459 19,345

NUMBER OF UNITS BY PRICE & AGE

Page 4: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS 3

M AT U R AT I O N G R A P H – 4 0 0 U N I T S / Y E A R

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 2056 2057 2058 2059 2060 2061

Student Potential @ 400 units / year

Existing Single Family Completed Active (SF) Non-Subdivided (SF) Existing Apartments Existing Condos Remaining Active (SF) Remaining Active (MF) Vacant (4400 units)

Page 5: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS 4

E X I S T I N G S I N G L E FA M I LY

• 135 existing subdivisions

• 10,193 K-12 students live within these subdivisions

Page 6: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS 5

E X I S T I N G M U LT I FA M I LY

• 114 existing multi-family structures

(apartments, condos, townhomes, etc.)

• 4,494 K-12 students live in multi-family

units

Page 7: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS 6

U N D E R C O N S T R U C T I O N

• 30 single-family, 4 multi-family

• Some neighborhoods are partially

complete (i.e. Jerome Village); 992

students already live within these areas

• 5,191 units total, ~2,300 units left to build

Page 8: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS 7

F U T U R E D E V E L O PA B L E L A N D

• 2,196 acres

• Farm Land, not owned by parks, BOE, or other public entity

• 4,391 units possible (2 units/acre)

Page 9: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS 8

E X I S T I N G H O U S I N G S T O C K B Y S C H O O L

Name Area (mi²)Approved Capacity 2017-18

Students from Single Family Subdivisions

Students from Multi Family

Students from Non-Subdivided Single

Family

Students in Partially Built Subdivisions

Students in Partially Built Subdivisions

Total Live-In

Utilization %

Elementary Schools

Albert Chapman Elementary School 3.37 650 337 234 15 56 66 642 104%Daniel Wright Elementary School 3.07 650 283 503 7 0 0 793 113%

Deer Run Elementary School 2.55 500 402 8 1 12 14 423 84%Eli Pinney Elementary School 8.28 700 529 2 46 114 135 691 102%

Glacier Ridge Elementary School 7.17 650 211 0 49 356 421 616 110%Griffith Thomas Elementary School 2.56 700 328 375 8 0 0 711 119%

Mary Emma Bailey Elementary School 2.44 650 455 21 5 10 12 491 75%Riverside Elementary School 0.65 400 243 141 0 0 0 384 96%

Scottish Corners Elementary School 3.91 650 518 122 4 0 0 644 97%Wyandot Elementary School 1.42 650 443 125 1 0 0 569 94%

Olde Sawmill Elementary School 0.90 450 235 212 7 0 0 454 96%Indian Run Elementary School 4.87 575 287 330 6 0 0 623 123%

Elementary Subtotal 41.20 7,225 4,271 2,074 149 548 648 7,042 102%Middle Schools

Ann Simpson Davis Middle School 9.53 900 491 550 14 31 37 1,086 115%Henry Karrer Middle School 6.37 900 699 123 2 15 18 840 92%

John Sells Middle School 8.34 1,000 643 359 12 3 4 1,017 93%Willard Grizzell Middle School 16.96 800 605 5 70 173 205 853 112%

Middle School Subtotal 41.20 3,600 2,438 1,037 98 223 264 3,796 102%High SchoolsDublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86%

Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99%Dublin Coffman High School 12.07 1,762 1,446 628 18 3 4 2,095 108%

High School Subtotal 41.20 5,038 3,484 1,383 109 221 261 5,196 98%

TOTAL 41.20 15,863 10,193 4,494 356 992 1,173 16,035 101%

Existing Housing StockSchool

Page 10: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS 9

M A X I M U M E N R O L L M E N T B Y S C H O O L

Name Area (mi²)Approved Capacity 2017-18

Students from Single Family Subdivisions

Students from Multi Family

Students from Non-Subdivided Single

Family

Max Enrollment

Maximum Utilization %

Elementary SchoolsAlbert Chapman Elementary School 3.37 650 660 239 15 914 141%

Daniel Wright Elementary School 3.07 650 345 503 7 855 132%Deer Run Elementary School 2.55 500 414 13 1 428 86%Eli Pinney Elementary School 8.28 700 1,761 16 46 1,823 260%

Glacier Ridge Elementary School 7.17 650 1,780 14 49 1,843 284%Griffith Thomas Elementary School 2.56 700 398 380 8 787 112%

Mary Emma Bailey Elementary School 2.44 650 583 21 5 610 94%Riverside Elementary School 0.65 400 316 141 0 457 114%

Scottish Corners Elementary School 3.91 650 756 153 4 913 140%Wyandot Elementary School 1.42 650 443 125 1 569 87%

Olde Sawmill Elementary School 0.90 450 252 212 7 471 105%Indian Run Elementary School 4.87 575 379 501 6 886 154%

Elementary Subtotal 41.20 7,225Middle Schools

Ann Simpson Davis Middle School 9.53 900 597 637 14 1,829 203%Henry Karrer Middle School 6.37 900 732 139 2 995 111%

John Sells Middle School 8.34 1,000 738 362 12 1,380 138%Willard Grizzell Middle School 16.96 800 1,797 21 70 1,922 240%

Middle School Subtotal 41.20 3,600High SchoolsDublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 832 850 15 2,384 154%

Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 2,980 61 76 3,225 187%Dublin Coffman High School 12.07 1,762 1,572 634 18 2,672 152%

High School Subtotal 41.20 5,038

TOTAL 41.20 15,863 Not Applicable

School New Housing Stock: Maximum Buildout

Not Applicable

Not Applicable

Not Applicable

Page 11: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS 10

M AT U R E E N R O L L M E N T B Y S C H O O L

Name Area (mi²)Approved Capacity 2017-18

Students from Single Family Subdivisions

Students from Multi Family

Students from Non-Subdivided

Single Family

Mature Enrollment

Mature Utilization %

Elementary SchoolsAlbert Chapman Elementary School 3.37 650 566 239 15 820 126%

Daniel Wright Elementary School 3.07 650 150 503 7 660 101%Deer Run Elementary School 2.55 500 165 13 1 179 36%Eli Pinney Elementary School 8.28 700 1,382 16 46 1,443 206%

Glacier Ridge Elementary School 7.17 650 1,244 14 49 1,306 201%Griffith Thomas Elementary School 2.56 700 351 380 8 739 106%

Mary Emma Bailey Elementary School 2.44 650 445 21 5 471 73%Riverside Elementary School 0.65 400 316 141 0 457 114%

Scottish Corners Elementary School 3.91 650 586 153 4 743 114%Wyandot Elementary School 1.42 650 248 125 1 373 57%

Olde Sawmill Elementary School 0.90 450 249 212 7 468 104%Indian Run Elementary School 4.87 575 282 501 6 790 137%

Elementary Subtotal 41.20 7,225 5,982 2,318 149 8,450 117%Middle Schools

Ann Simpson Davis Middle School 9.53 900 629 637 14 1,280 142%Henry Karrer Middle School 6.37 900 481 139 2 621 69%

John Sells Middle School 8.34 1,000 551 362 12 924 92%Willard Grizzell Middle School 16.96 800 1,331 21 70 1,422 178%

Middle School Subtotal 41.20 3,600 2,991 1,159 98 4,248 118%High SchoolsDublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 838 850 15 1,703 110%

Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 2,032 61 76 2,170 126%Dublin Coffman High School 12.07 1,762 1,117 634 18 1,770 100%

High School Subtotal 41.20 5,038 3,988 1,546 109 5,642 112%

TOTAL 41.20 15,863 12,960 5,023 356 18,339 116%

New Housing Stock: Mature BuildoutSchool

Page 12: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS 11

M AT U R E U T I L I Z AT I O N B Y C U R R E N T B O U N D A RY

ES: 117% MS: 118%HS: 112%

Page 13: DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS...2018/08/08  · Dublin Scioto High School 9.53 1,552 690 733 15 43 51 1,481 86% Dublin Jerome High School 19.59 1,724 1,348 22 76 174 206 1,620 99% Dublin Coffman

DUBLIN CITY SCHOOLS 12

S T U D E N T P O T E N T I A L

• Maximum Enrollment: 21,149 in 2036

• K-5: 9,762

• 6-8: 4,880

• 9-12: 6,507

• Mature Enrollment: 18,339 in 2061

• K-5: 8,464

• 6-8: 4,232

• 9-12: 5,643