Informe de resultados de COVID-19...covid19.healthdata.org 1 Institute for Health Metrics and...

covid19.healthdata.org 1 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

Informe de resultados de COVID-19

México

23 de junio de 2021 Este documento contiene información resumida sobre las últimas proyecciones del modelo IHME sobre COVID-19 en México. El modelo se ejecutó el 23 de junio de 2021 con datos hasta el 21 de junio de 2021.

Situación actual • Los casos notificados diariamente en la última semana aumentaron a 2,600 por día en promedio en comparación con los 2,200 de la semana anterior (Figura 1).

• Las muertes diarias en la última semana disminuyeron a 150 por día en promedio en comparación con 160 la semana anterior (Figura 2). Las muertes diarias totales estimadas por COVID-19 fueron 2.3 veces mayores que la cantidad informada de muertes. Esto convierte al COVID-19 en la cuarta causa de muerte en México esta semana (Tabla 1).

• La tasa de mortalidad diaria es superior a 4 por millón en Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tamaulipas y Yucatán (Figura 3).

• Estimamos que 53% de las personas en México han sido infectadas al 21 de junio. En 18 estados más de la mitad de la población está infectada (Figura 5).

• La R efectiva, calculada usando casos, hospitalizaciones y muertes, es mayor que 1 en 14 estados (Figura 6).

• La tasa de detección de infecciones en México fue cercana a 5% el 21 de junio (Figura 7).

• Con base en el GISAID y varias bases de datos nacionales, combinado con nuestro modelo de dispersión de variantes, estimamos la prevalencia actual de variantes de interés (Figura 8). Estimamos que las variantes circulantes primarias son variantes ancestrales y B.1.1.7. Estimamos que B.1.351 está circulando en 0 estados, que B.1.617 está circulando en 25 estados y que P.1 o P.3 está circulando en 26 estados.

Tendencias en los impulsores de la transmisión • La movilidad la semana pasada fue un 3% más baja que la línea de base anterior a COVID-19 (Figura 10). La movilidad estuvo cerca de la línea de base (dentro del 10%) en 29 estados. La movilidad fue inferior al 30% de la línea de base en ningún lugar.

• Al 21 de junio, en las encuestas globales de síntomas COVID-19 y las encuestas de síntomas COVID-19 de EE. UU., el 79% de las personas informan que siempre usaban una máscara al salir de casa, sin cambios en comparación con la semana pasada (Figura 12). En ningún estado el uso de mascarillas fue inferior a 50%.

• Se realizaron 10 pruebas de diagnóstico por cada 100,000 personas el 21 de junio (Figura 14).


• En México, el 89.4% de las personas dicen que aceptarían o probablemente aceptarían una vacuna para COVID-19. Esto es 0 puntos porcentuales más que la semana pasada. La fracción de la población que está dispuesta a recibir la vacuna COVID-19 oscila entre 83% en Quintana Roo y 94% en el estado de México (Figura 18).

• En nuestro escenario de referencia actual, esperamos que 59.9 millones de personas estén vacunadas para el 1 de octubre (Figura 19).

Proyecciones • En nuestro escenario de referencia, que representa lo que creemos que es más probable que suceda, nuestro modelo proyecta 588,000 muertes acumuladas el 1 de octubre. Esto representa 41,000 muertes adicionales del 21 de junio al 1 de octubre (Figura 20). Las muertes diarias alcanzarán un máximo de 640 el 1 de octubre de 2021 (Figura 21).

• Si se alcanzara la cobertura universal de la mascarilla (95%) en la próxima semana, nuestro modelo proyecta 11,000 muertes acumulativas menos en comparación con el escenario de referencia del 1 de octubre (Figura 20).

• En nuestro peor escenario, nuestro modelo proyecta 616,000 muertes acumuladas el 1 de octubre, 28,000 muertes adicionales en comparación con nuestro escenario de referencia (Figura 20). Se espera que las muertes diarias en el peor escenario disminuyan de manera constante hasta el 1 de octubre de 2021 (Figura 21).

• Para el 1 de octubre, proyectamos que se salvarán 20,900 vidas gracias a la vacunación. Esto no incluye las vidas salvadas mediante la vacunación que ya se ha entregado.

• Se espera que las infecciones diarias en el escenario de referencia disminuyan de manera constante hasta el 1 de octubre de 2021. En el peor escenario, se espera que las infecciones diarias disminuyan de manera constante hasta el 1 de octubre de 2021 (Figura 22).

• La Figura 23 compara nuestros pronósticos de escenarios de referencia con otros modelos archivados públicamente. Las proyecciones son muy divergentes. IHME proyecta un incremento de las muertes diarias, mientras que los demás modelos proyectan una paulatina disminución.

• En algún momento, desde junio hasta el 1 de octubre, 17 estados tendrán una presión alta o extrema en las camas de hospital (Figura 24). En algún momento, desde junio hasta el 1 de octubre, 23 estados tendrán una presión alta o extrema en la capacidad de la UCI (Figura 25).


COVID-19 Results Briefing

Mexico

June 23, 2021 This document contains summary information on the latest projections from the IHME model on COVID-19 in Mexico. The model was run on June 23, 2021, with data through June 21, 2021.

Current situation • Daily reported cases in the last week increased to 2,600 per day on average compared

to 2,200 the week before (Figure 1).

• Daily deaths in the last week decreased to 150 per day on average compared to 160 the week before (Figure 2). Estimated total daily COVID-19 deaths were 2.3 times larger than the reported number of deaths. This makes COVID-19 the number 4 cause of death in Mexico this week (Table 1).

• The daily death rate is greater than 4 per million in Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tamaulipas, and Yucatán (Figure 3).

• We estimated that 53% of people in Mexico have been infected as of June 21. In 18 states, more than half the population are infected (Figure 5).

• Effective R, computed using cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, is greater than 1 in 14 states (Figure 6).

• The infection-detection rate in Mexico was close to 5% on June 21 (Figure 7).

• Based on the GISAID and various national databases, combined with our variant spread model, we estimate the current prevalence of variants of concern (Figure 8). We estimate that the primary circulating variants are ancestral and B.1.1.7 variants. We estimate that B.1.351 is not circulating in any states, that B.1.617 is circulating in 25 states, and that P.1 or P.3 is circulating in 26 states.

Trends in drivers of transmission • Mobility last week was 3% lower than the pre-COVID-19 baseline (Figure 10). Mobility

was near baseline (within 10%) in 29 states. Mobility was not lower than 30% of baseline in any locations.

• As of June 21, in the Global COVID-19 Symptom Surveys and the US COVID-19 Symptom Surveys, 79% of people self-report that they always wore a mask when leaving their home, about the same as last week (Figure 12). Mask use was not lower than 50% in any states.

• There were 10 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people on June 21 (Figure 14).


• In Mexico, 89.4% of people say they would accept or would probably accept a vaccine for COVID-19. This is about the same percentage as last week. The fraction of the population who are open to receiving a COVID-19 vaccine ranges from 83% in Quintana Roo to 94% in México (Figure 18).

• In our current reference scenario, we expect that 59.9 million people will be vaccinated by October 1 (Figure 19).

Projections • In our reference scenario, which represents what we think is most likely to happen,

our model projects 588,000 cumulative deaths on October 1. This represents 41,000 additional deaths from June 21 to October 1 (Figure 20). Daily deaths will peak at 640 on October 1, 2021 (Figure 21).

• If universal mask coverage (95%) were attained in the next week, our model projects 11,000 fewer cumulative deaths compared to the reference scenario on October 1 (Figure 20).

• Under our worse scenario, our model projects 616,000 cumulative deaths on October 1, an additional 28,000 deaths compared to our reference scenario (Figure 20). Daily deaths in the worse scenario are expected to decline steadily until October 1, 2021 (Figure 21).

• By October 1, we project that 20,900 lives will be saved by the projected vaccine rollout. This does not include lives saved through vaccination that has already been delivered.

• Daily infections in the reference scenario are expected to decline steadily until October 1, 2021. Under the worse scenario, daily infections are expected to decline steadily until October 1, 2021 (Figure 22).

• Figure 23 compares our reference scenario forecasts to other publicly archived models. Forecasts are widely divergent. IHME projects an increase in daily deaths, while the other models project a gradual decrease.

• At some point from June through October 1, 17 states will have high or extreme stress on hospital beds (Figure 24). At some point from June through October 1, 23 states will have high or extreme stress on ICU capacity (Figure 25).

Mexico COVID-19 RESULTS BRIEFING

Model updatesFollowing on our update last week to model all variant data simultaneously, we augmented our variant spreadalgorithms to model spread of all variants simultaneously across all locations at once. We have observedsimultaneous or near-simultaneous invasion across many locations, and this new approach allows us to moreclosely capture the data. As before, locations with a variant may spread it to their neighbors or locationsconnected through large flows (based on a gravity model), but now we have also instituted a hierarchyof variants based on observations of variant-variant interaction. In particular, if B.1.617.2 is already thedominant variant, no other variant is allowed to invade on top of it. From B.1.617.2, the hierarchy is P.1,B.1.617.1, B.1.1.7, and B.1.351. In each case, a variant may not invade if all the current infections in alocation are estimated to be of a variant above it in the hierarchy.

Our previous assessment of the total COVID-19 to reported COVID-19 death scalar for Georgia was 3.73.This was based on the estimated infection-detection rate (IDR) for Georgia and information on the scalarsfrom other countries in the GBD region and super-region. We opted to use such estimates for the countrybecause the reported all-cause mortality data, which are needed to estimate excess mortality as described inour online method description, were only available up to the 26th week of 2020, before the epidemic becamesevere. We have since received all-cause mortality data from our collaborators in Georgia up to week 13of 2021. This has allowed us to directly estimate the scalar after accounting for the impact of flu, or lackthereof, in the first three months of 2021. Our new scalar is 2.04 for Georgia, which reflects such changes.



Figure 1. Reported daily COVID-19 cases

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

Feb 20 Apr 20 Jun 20 Aug 20 Oct 20 Dec 20 Feb 21 Apr 21 Jun 21Month

Cou

nt

Daily cases

Table 1. Ranking of COVID-19 among the leading causes of mortality this week, assuming uniform deathsof non-COVID causes throughout the year

Cause name Weekly deaths RankingIschemic heart disease 2,044 1Diabetes mellitus 1,420 2Chronic kidney disease 1,395 3COVID-19 1,080 4Cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases 891 5Stroke 729 6Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 630 7Interpersonal violence 590 8Alzheimer’s disease and other dementias 455 9Lower respiratory infections 434 10



Figure 2. Smoothed trend estimate of reported daily COVID-19 deaths (blue) and total daily COVID-19deaths (orange).

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

Jan 20 Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21

Dai

ly d

eath

s



Figure 3. Daily COVID-19 death rate per 1 million on June 21, 2021

<1

1 to 1.9

2 to 2.9

3 to 3.9

4 to 4.9

5 to 5.9

6 to 6.9

7 to 7.9

>=8

Figure 4. Cumulative COVID-19 deaths per 100,000 on June 21, 2021

<50

50 to 99

100 to 149

150 to 199

200 to 249

250 to 299

300 to 349

350 to 399

>=400



Figure 5. Estimated percent of the population infected with COVID-19 on June 21, 2021

<10

10−19.9

20−29.9

30−39.9

40−49.9

50−59.9

60−69.9

70−79.9

80−84.9

85−89.9

90−94.9

>=95

Figure 6. Mean effective R on June 10, 2021. The estimate of effective R is based on the combined analysisof deaths, case reporting, and hospitalizations where available. Current reported cases reflect infections 11-13days prior, so estimates of effective R can only be made for the recent past. Effective R less than 1 meansthat transmission should decline, all other things being held the same.

<0.79

0.79−0.84

0.85−0.89

0.9−0.94

0.95−0.99

1−1.04

1.05−1.09

1.1−1.14

1.15−1.2

>=1.21



Figure 7. Percent of COVID-19 infections detected. This is estimated as the ratio of reported dailyCOVID-19 cases to estimated daily COVID-19 infections based on the SEIR disease transmission model. Dueto measurement errors in cases and testing rates, the infection-detection rate can exceed 100% at particularpoints in time.

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21

Per

cent

of i

nfec

tions

det

ecte

d

Argentina United States of America Colombia Mexico Brazil



Figure 8. Estimated percent of circulating SARS-CoV-2 for primary variant families on June 21, 2021.

A. Estimated percent B.1.1.7 variant

0%

1−9%

10−24%

25−49%

50−74%

75−89%

90−100%

B. Estimated percent B.1.351 variant

0%

1−9%

10−24%

25−49%

50−74%

75−89%

90−100%



C. Estimated percent B.1.617 variant

0%

1−9%

10−24%

25−49%

50−74%

75−89%

90−100%

D. Estimated percent P.1 variant

0%

1−9%

10−24%

25−49%

50−74%

75−89%

90−100%



Figure 9. Infection-fatality ratio on June 21, 2021

< 0.2%

0.2% to 0.39%

0.4% to 0.59%

0.6% to 0.79%

0.8% to 0.99%

> 1%



Critical driversTable 2. Current mandate implementation

Prim

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ZacatecasYucatán

Veracruz de Ignacio de la LlaveTlaxcala

TamaulipasTabascoSonoraSinaloa

San Luis PotosíQuintana Roo

QuerétaroPuebla

OaxacaNuevo León

NayaritMéxico

MorelosMichoacán de Ocampo

Mexico CityJalisco

HidalgoGuerrero

GuanajuatoDurango

ColimaCoahuila

ChihuahuaChiapas

CampecheBaja California Sur

Baja CaliforniaAguascalientes

Mandate in placeMandate in place(imposed this week)Mandate in place(updated from previous reporting)

No mandateNo mandate(lifted this week)No mandate(updated from previous reporting)



Figure 10. Trend in mobility as measured through smartphone app use compared to January 2020 baseline

−80

−60

−40

−20

0


Per

cent

red

uctio

n fr

om a

vera

ge m

obili

ty


Figure 11. Mobility level as measured through smartphone app use compared to January 2020 baseline(percent) on June 21, 2021

=<−50

−49 to −45

−44 to −40

−39 to −35

−34 to −30

−29 to −25

−24 to −20

−19 to −15

−14 to −10

>−10



Figure 12. Trend in the proportion of the population reporting always wearing a mask when leaving home

0

25

50

75

Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21

Per

cent

of p

opul

atio

n


Figure 13. Proportion of the population reporting always wearing a mask when leaving home on June 21,2021

<45%

45 to 49%

50 to 54%

55 to 59%

60 to 64%

65 to 69%

70 to 74%

75 to 79%

80 to 84%

>=85%



Figure 14. Trend in COVID-19 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people

0

200

400


Test

per

100

,000

pop

ulat

ion


Figure 15. COVID-19 diagnostic tests per 100,000 people on June 21, 2021

<5

5 to 9.9

10 to 24.9

25 to 49

50 to 149

150 to 249

250 to 349

350 to 449

450 to 499

>=500



Figure 16. Increase in the risk of death due to pneumonia on February 1 compared to August 1

<−60%

−60 to −41%

−40 to −21%

−20 to −1%

0 to 19%

20 to 39%

40 to 59%

>=60%



Table 3. Estimates of vaccine efficacy for specific vaccines used in the model at preventing disease andinfection. The SEIR model uses variant-specific estimates of vaccine efficacy at preventing symptomaticdisease and at preventing infection. We use data from clinical trials directly, where available, and makeestimates otherwise. More information can be found on our website.

Vaccine

Efficacy atpreventing disease:D614G & B.1.1.7

Efficacy atpreventing

infection: D614G &B.1.1.7

Efficacy at preventingdisease: B.1.351,B.1.617, & P.1

Efficacy at preventinginfection: B.1.351,B.1.617, & P.1

AstraZeneca 74% 52% 35% 31%CoronaVac 50% 44% 32% 28%Covaxin 78% 69% 50% 44%Janssen 72% 72% 64% 57%Moderna 94% 89% 89% 85%Novavax 89% 79% 49% 43%Pfizer/BioNTech 91% 86% 86% 82%Sinopharm 73% 65% 47% 41%Sputnik-V 92% 81% 59% 52%TianjinCanSino

66% 58% 42% 37%

Othervaccines

75% 66% 57% 50%

Othervaccines(mRNA)

91% 86% 86% 82%


http://www.healthdata.org/node/8584


Figure 17. Trend in the estimated proportion of the adult (18+) population that have been vaccinated orwould probably or definitely receive the COVID-19 vaccine if available.

0

25

50

75

100

Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21

Per

cent

of p

opul

atio

n


Figure 18. This figure shows the estimated proportion of the adult (18+) population that has been vaccinatedor would probably or definitely receive the COVID-19 vaccine if available.

<50%

50−59%

60−69%

70−74%

75−79%

80−84%

>85%



Figure 19. Number of people who receive any vaccine and those who are effectively vaccinated and protectedagainst disease, accounting for efficacy, loss to follow up for two-dose vaccines, partial immunity after onedose, and immunity after two doses.

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

0

20

40

60

Dec 2

0

Jan

21

Feb

21

Mar

21

Apr 2

1

May

21

Jun

21

Jul 2

1

Aug 2

1

Sep 2

1

Oct 21

Peo

ple

Percent of adult population

At least one dose Effectively vaccinated


Mexico PROJECTIONS AND SCENARIOS

Projections and scenariosWe produce three scenarios when projecting COVID-19. The reference scenario is our forecast of what wethink is most likely to happen:

• Vaccines are distributed at the expected pace.• Governments adapt their response by re-imposing social distancing mandates for 6 weeks whenever

daily deaths reach 8 per million, unless a location has already spent at least 7 of the last 14 dayswith daily deaths above this rate and not yet re-imposed social distancing mandates. In this case, thescenario assumes that mandates are re-imposed when daily deaths reach 15 per million.

• Variants B.1.1.7 (first identified in the UK), B.1.351 (first identified in South Africa), and P1 (firstidentified in Brazil) continue to spread from locations with (a) more than 5 sequenced variants, and(b) reports of community transmission, to adjacent locations following the speed of variant scale-upobserved in the regions of the United Kingdom.

• In one-quarter of those vaccinated, mobility increases toward pre-COVID-19 levels.

The worse scenario modifies the reference scenario assumptions in three ways:

• First, it assumes that variants B.1.351 or P.1 begin to spread within three weeks in adjacent locationsthat do not already have B.1.351 or P.1 community transmission.

• Second, it assumes that all those vaccinated increase their mobility toward pre-COVID-19 levels.• Third, it assumes that among those vaccinated, mask use starts to decline exponentially one month

after completed vaccination.

The universal masks scenario makes all the same assumptions as the reference scenario but also assumes95% of the population wear masks in public in every location.



Figure 20. Cumulative COVID-19 deaths until October 01, 2021 for three scenarios

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

0

100

200

300

400

500

Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21

Cum

ulat

ive

deat

hsC

umulative deaths per 100,000

Reference scenario

Universal mask use

Worse

Figure 21. Daily COVID-19 deaths until October 01, 2021 for three scenarios

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

0

1

2

Jan 20 Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21 Nov 21

Dai

ly d

eath

sD

aily deaths per 100,000

Reference scenario

Universal mask use

Worse



Figure 22. Daily COVID-19 infections until October 01, 2021 for three scenarios

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan 20 Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21 Nov 21

Dai

ly in

fect

ions

Daily infections per 100,000

Reference scenario

Universal mask use

Worse



Figure 23. Comparison of reference model projections with other COVID modeling groups. For thiscomparison, we are including projections of daily COVID-19 deaths from other modeling groups when available:Delphi from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Delphi), Imperial College London (Imperial), The LosAlamos National Laboratory (LANL), and the SI-KJalpha model from the University of Southern California(SIKJalpha). Daily deaths from other modeling groups are smoothed to remove inconsistencies with rounding.Regional values are aggregates from available locations in that region.

200

400

600

Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21Date

Dai

ly d

eath

s

Models

IHME

Imperial

LANL

SIKJalpha


https://www.covidanalytics.io/home

https://www.covidsim.org

https://covid-19.bsvgateway.org/

https://github.com/scc-usc/ReCOVER-COVID-19


Figure 24. The estimated inpatient hospital usage is shown over time. The percent of hospital beds occupiedby COVID-19 patients is color-coded based on observed quantiles of the maximum proportion of beds occupiedby COVID-19 patients. Less than 5% is considered low stress, 5-9% is considered moderate stress, 10-19% isconsidered high stress, and 20% or greater is considered extreme stress.

Zacatecas

Yucatán

Veracruz de Ignacio de la Llave

Tlaxcala

Tamaulipas

Tabasco

Sonora

Sinaloa

San Luis Potosí

Quintana Roo

Querétaro

Puebla

Oaxaca

Nuevo León

Nayarit

México

Morelos

Michoacán de Ocampo

Mexico City

Jalisco

Hidalgo

Guerrero

Guanajuato

Durango

Colima

Coahuila

Chihuahua

Chiapas

Campeche

Baja California Sur

Baja California

Aguascalientes

Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21

Stress level

Low

Moderate

High

Extreme

All hospital beds



Figure 25. The estimated intensive care unit (ICU) usage is shown over time. The percent of ICU bedsoccupied by COVID-19 patients is color-coded based on observed quantiles of the maximum proportion ofICU beds occupied by COVID-19 patients. Less than 10% is considered low stress, 10-29% is consideredmoderate stress, 30-59% is considered high stress, and 60% or greater is considered extreme stress.

Zacatecas

Yucatán

Veracruz de Ignacio de la Llave

Tlaxcala

Tamaulipas

Tabasco

Sonora

Sinaloa

San Luis Potosí

Quintana Roo

Querétaro

Puebla

Oaxaca

Nuevo León

Nayarit

México

Morelos

Michoacán de Ocampo

Mexico City

Jalisco

Hidalgo

Guerrero

Guanajuato

Durango

Colima

Coahuila

Chihuahua

Chiapas

Campeche

Baja California Sur

Baja California

Aguascalientes

Mar 20 May 20 Jul 20 Sep 20 Nov 20 Jan 21 Mar 21 May 21 Jul 21 Sep 21

Stress level

Low

Moderate

High

Extreme

Intensive care unit beds


Mexico MORE INFORMATION

More informationData sources:

Mask use and vaccine confidence data are from the Global COVID-19 Symptom Survey (this research isbased on survey results from University of Maryland Social Data Science Center with Facebook’s support)and the US COVID-19 Symptom Survey (this research is based on survey results from Carnegie MellonUniversity’s Delphi Research Group with Facebook’s support). Mask use data are also from Premise, theKaiser Family Foundation, and the YouGov COVID-19 Behaviour Tracker survey.

Genetic sequence and metadata are primarily from the GISAID Initiative. Further details available on theCOVID-19 model FAQ page.

A note of thanks:

We wish to warmly acknowledge the support of these and others who have made our COVID-19 estimationefforts possible.

More information:

For all COVID-19 resources at IHME, visit http://www.healthdata.org/covid.

Questions? Requests? Feedback? Please contact us at https://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-us.


https://dataforgood.fb.com/tools/symptomsurvey/

https://delphi.cmu.edu/blog/2020/08/26/covid-19-symptom-surveys-through-facebook/

https://www.premise.com/covid-19/

https://today.yougov.com/covid-19

https://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs/

https://www.healthdata.org/covid/acknowledgements

http://www.healthdata.org/covid

https://www.healthdata.org/covid/contact-us

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