Peder Nicolai Jarlsby Bloomberg FEFO | IB: Fearnley ...

Peder Nicolai JarlsbyEquity Analyst | +47 22 93 64 [email protected]

Ulrik MannhartCredit Analyst | +47 22 93 64 [email protected]

Erik HoviEquity Analyst | +47 22 93 63 [email protected]

Fearnley Securities Shipping Team Bloomberg FEFO <GO> | IB: Fearnley Sec [email protected] produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)

mailto:[email protected]




81

60

48

34

9

4

3

Table of Contents

Disclosures and Disclaimers87

Fearnley’s Shipping Outlook

Ship Values and Rates

Crude and Product Tankers

Dry Bulk Carriers

Container and Liners

Gas Carriers – LNG & LPG

Industrial and Other Shipping

Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)

Sources: Company data, Fearnley

Shipping Outlook

SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Industry Market outlook Company specifics

Segment Recc. Supply OB to fleet Comments Top Buy Top Sell

Crude

TankersBuy 2-3% 9 %

Production cuts/ floating storage unwinding results in challening near-term outlook.

Lowest OB since the mid 1990’s and largest phase out potential since the early 2000’s leaves room for

healthy tanker earnings once current disruptions are overcome.

DHT/FRO/TNK 0

Product Buy 2-3% 6 % Similar demand outlook as crude. HAFNI 0

Chemical Selective 3-4% 5 % Spillover from tankers. CoA contract structure implies lag on tanker/product earnings. 0 0

Dry bulk Neutral 1-2% 6 %

Surge in commodity prices as global stimuli programs imapcts key commodities. Rates unseasonably

strong in 1q21 ahead of expected strong 2h21. Risk evolves around Chinese production curbs, economic

growth and easing of congestion.

0

Container Buy 3-4% 21 %

The pandemic has boosted demand for containerized goods, while inventory restocking adds as fuel to the

fire. Proftability for liners/ lessors at 15-year high. We remain optimistic due to the resilience shown in the

downturn, with the only caveat being high order activity in 1h21.

TGH / ZIM 0

Car Carriers Buy 1-2% 4 %Recent datapoints provides some optimism with apperant demand recovery and potential inventory

replenishment. New H&H replacement cycle unlikely near-term, but should occur in 1-3 years time. WAWI 0

LNG Selective 7-8% 21 %2021-22 to see challenging utilization but improved product pricing. 2024 onwards marking the next

liquefaction cycle, but recovery hinges on limited speculative orders. 0 0

LPG Buy 6-7% 23 %Sustainability of current rates hinging on US and OPEC production levels. Expect fleet inefficiencies to aid

the market through 2021 and potentially into 2022. 0 0

Other Selective n.a. n.a.

Yards experiencing rush of orders into 2021, primarily for vessels tied up on longer term charters. Expect

limited speculative ordering in shipping due to continued reglation uncertainty whilst the offshore industry

is unlikely to provide much support.

0 0


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Company data, Fearnley Note: NB values including scrubber, resale- and secondhand values excluding scrubbers (USD 3m for VLCC)


Segment Size Range Unit Breakeven rate (USD/d) Cash on cash return (%)

Crude NB '21 resale 5 yr old 10 yr old 15 yr old Scrap NB Parity 10 yr old OPEX 1 yr TC 5 yr avg. 10 yr avg. 1 yr TC 5 yr rate 10 yr rate

VLCC 200,000+ DWT 93 95 74 52 37 24 39 400 19 850 10 000 25 000 35 200 32 700 7 % 12 % 11 %

Suezmax 120-200,000 DWT 64 64 48 32 22 14 29 950 14 850 9 500 16 500 26 200 25 000 5 % 12 % 11 %

Aframax 80-120,000 DWT 54 54 40 25 17 10 25 800 12 650 8 500 17 000 20 400 19 000 7 % 10 % 9 %

Product

LR2 80-120,000 DWT 56 56 42 27 19 10 26 450 13 800 8 500 18 900 17 500 8 % 7 %

LR1 60-80,000 DWT 43 43 32 21 14 8 21 350 10 050 7 500 16 100 14 900 9 % 8 %

MR 40-60,000 DWT 37 37 28 18 12 6 18 950 9 300 7 000 14 100 12 800 8 % 7 %

Dry bulk Size range Unit NB '21 resale 5 yr old 10 yr old 15 yr old Scrap NB Parity 10 yr old

New castlemax 200-220,000 DWT 59 62 50 36 22 16 25 650 11 850 7 000 37 000 n.a. n.a. 22 % n.a. n.a.

Capesize 170-200,000 DWT 55 60 48 34 22 14 23 900 10 900 6 500 32 000 17 600 18 500 19 % 8 % 9 %

Kamsarmax 80-90,000 DWT 38 38 32 24 18 9 18 150 12 100 6 000 32 000 n.a. n.a. 29 % n.a. n.a.

Panamax 65-80,000 DWT 30 32 27 22 17 8 15 600 12 500 6 000 29 500 13 500 12 900 31 % 9 % 8 %

Ultramax 60-65,000 DWT 34 35 30 25 20 7 16 900 8 300 6 000 32 000 n.a. n.a. 31 % n.a. n.a.

Supramax 50-60,000 DWT 32 33 28 22 16 6 16 300 10 550 6 000 30 000 13 000 12 300 30 % 8 % 7 %

Handymax 39-50,000 DWT 28 32 25 20 14 6 14 350 7 400 5 500 8 500 11 900 11 100 3 % 8 % 7 %

LPG Size range Unit NB '21 resale 5 yr old 10 yr old 15 yr old Scrap NB Parity 10 yr old

VLGC 84 000 Cbm 74 81 71 59 44 8 31 750 19 550 9 000 28 000 36 900 34 500 9 % 14 % 13 %

MGC 35k 35 000 Cbm 46 48 41 32 23 3 22 400 13 250 8 000 25 500 23 100 22 900 15 % 13 % 13 %

Semi-ref 22k 22-24,000 Cbm 46 48 40 31 22 2 20 850 11 500 6 500 21 400 22 300 22 200 13 % 14 % 14 %

LNG

MEGI/ XDF 170k 170 000 Cbm 205 205 n/a n/a n/a 24 74 500 51 450 18 000 115 000 73 100 74 200 n.a. n.a. n.a.

DFDE 155k 155 000 Cbm n/a n/a 135 117 99 20 58 500 44 600 17 000 93 000 62 700 63 400 20 % 12 % 12 %

Turbine 150k 150 000 Cbm n/a n/a 90 65 45 20 41 700 24 550 14 000 53 000 44 800 44 800 15 % 12 % 12 %

Container Size range Unit NB '21 resale 5 yr old 10 yr old 15 yr old Scrap NB Parity 10 yr old

Post-Panamax 16-18k 18 000 TEU 150 150 120 83 67 35 59 250 34 750 12 000 n.a. 48 800 46 700 n.a. 11 % 10 %

Post-Panamax 14-16k 14 500 TEU 145 150 126 103 79 32 56 700 38 750 11 000 n.a. 46 000 43 900 n.a. 10 % 9 %

Post-Panamax 10-12k 10 000 TEU 125 135 92 90 68 23 48 100 32 850 8 750 147 000 41 100 39 500 55 % 12 % 12 %

Post-Panamax 8-10k 8 500 TEU 105 120 90 88 85 22 41 650 39 250 8 500 129 000 37 600 36 800 49 % 11 % 11 %

Panamax 4.5-5k 4 600 TEU 68 68 65 60 54 10 29 050 27 550 7 500 100 000 15 900 14 700 52 % 4 % 4 %

Sub-Panamax 2.5-3k 2 750 TEU 38 48 46 44 40 7 18 300 21 150 6 250 81 300 12 800 12 100 59 % 5 % 4 %

Handy 1.5-2k 1 700 TEU 27 35 32 30 25 4 14 000 14 650 5 250 61 000 10 700 10 300 63 % 5 % 5 %

Handy 1-1.5k 1 000 TEU 23 29 25 21 17 5 11 950 10 900 4 600 38 000 8 500 8 200 48 % 5 % 4 %

Feedermax 0.7-1k 725 TEU 17 20 17 12 9 3 9 850 7 800 4 400 22 500 7 000 6 800 37 % 4 % 4 %

Ship values (USDm) Current (USDm) Historical rate (USD/d)


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42



Segment Size range Years Quarters

Crude Tanker Dwt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21E 3q21E 4q21E 1q22E 2q22E 3q22E 4q22E 1q23E 2q23E 3q23E 4q23E

VLCC 200,000+ 16 217 24 433 58 724 41 525 21 475 17 600 34 200 50 000 24 800 60 000 30 000 65 000 90 000 30 000 15 000 9 000 10 000 20 000 60 000 51 000 42 000 60 000 87 000 25 500 21 000 30 000 43 500

Suezmax 120-200,000 15 511 25 854 45 171 28 125 13 350 14 100 24 500 31 300 17 900 41 000 21 000 50 000 50 000 15 000 10 000 6 500 10 000 14 000 41 000 34 850 28 700 41 000 59 450 17 850 14 700 21 000 30 450

Aframax 80-120,000 14 131 23 472 36 929 22 550 9 550 9 800 20 200 23 500 13 900 31 000 16 000 40 000 35 000 10 000 9 000 6 000 8 000 10 500 31 000 26 350 21 700 31 000 44 950 13 600 11 200 16 000 23 200

Product Tanker Dwt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21E 3q21E 4q21E 1q22E 2q22E 3q22E 4q22E 1q23E 2q23E 3q23E 4q23E

LR2 80-120,000 13 683 17 993 29 962 17 750 10 000 11 300 19 700 24 500 16 500 32 000 16 000 25 000 40 000 18 000 15 000 10 000 12 000 12 000 32 000 27 200 22 400 32 000 46 400 13 600 11 200 16 000 23 200

LR1 60-80,000 12 039 16 473 24 711 14 375 10 275 9 400 16 800 21 100 14 000 27 000 13 500 22 000 35 000 16 000 11 500 9 000 10 000 10 000 27 000 22 950 18 900 27 000 39 150 11 475 9 450 13 500 19 575

MR 40-60,000 13 277 11 527 21 859 12 875 10 515 10 600 15 400 17 300 12 500 22 000 11 000 20 000 25 000 14 000 10 000 8 000 10 000 10 000 22 000 18 700 15 400 22 000 31 900 9 350 7 700 11 000 15 950

Dry bulk Dwt 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21E 3q21E 4q21E 1q22E 2q22E 3q22E 4q22E 1q23E 2q23E 3q23E 4q23E

Capesize 170-200,000 14 578 14 368 7 373 7 325 14 600 16 800 16 900 11 800 30 000 29 800 23 908 10 000 6 000 16 000 15 000 19 000 32 000 36 000 33 000 19 000 32 000 41 000 27 000 18 000 24 000 27 000 25 000

Panamax 65-80,000 9 498 7 655 5 751 5 400 9 600 12 600 12 100 8 900 26 000 26 000 15 618 8 500 5 000 11 000 11 000 18 000 25 000 32 000 29 000 18 000 25 000 32 000 29 000 18 000 19 000 22 000 21 000

Supramax 50-60,000 10 297 9 877 7 115 5 925 9 275 11 400 9 700 7 800 25 000 25 000 16 296 7 500 5 500 8 000 10 000 18 000 26 000 30 000 26 000 18 000 26 000 30 000 26 000 16 500 18 000 20 000 19 000

Handymax 39-50,000 9 243 8 783 6 318 5 438 8 463 10 100 8 400 7 100 24 000 24 000 14 365 6 750 5 250 6 750 9 500 17 000 25 000 29 000 25 000 17 000 25 000 29 000 25 000 16 500 18 000 20 000 19 000

Handysize 20-38,000 8 190 7 690 5 522 4 988 7 650 8 800 7 100 6 400 24 000 24 000 13 196 6 000 5 000 5 500 9 000 17 000 25 000 29 000 25 000 17 000 25 000 29 000 25 000 16 500 18 000 20 000 19 000

LNG Cbm 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21E 3q21E 4q21E 1q22E 2q22E 3q22E 4q22E 1q23E 2q23E 3q23E 4q23E

MEGI/ XDF 170k 170 000 n/a n/a n/a 49 925 83 300 86 300 68 800 82 500 67 500 74 487 95 000 50 000 45 000 85 000 135 000 55 000 65 000 75 000 80 000 55 000 55 000 80 000 80 000 55 000 55 000 80 000

DFDE 170k 170 000 118 308 74 283 41 476 38 236 44 925 78 300 79 500 63 000 77 500 62 500 71 796 87 000 45 000 40 000 80 000 130 000 50 000 60 000 70 000 75 000 50 000 50 000 75 000 75 000 50 000 50 000 75 000

DFDE 155k 155 000 113 308 69 283 36 476 33 236 39 925 73 300 74 500 58 000 72 500 56 300 58 492 82 000 40 000 35 000 75 000 125 000 45 000 55 000 65 000 70 000 45 000 45 000 65 000 70 000 45 000 45 000 65 000

Turbine 150k 150 000 100 433 55 626 27 762 21 771 24 050 43 300 49 400 43 300 49 300 37 100 41 697 63 000 30 000 25 000 55 000 90 000 30 000 35 750 41 250 44 000 30 250 30 250 44 000 44 000 30 250 30 250 44 000

Turbine 125k (old) 125 000 38 692 28 969 24 375 16 328 18 038 32 400 37 000 32 400 36 900 27 800 30 000 47 250 22 500 18 750 41 250 67 500 22 500 26 813 30 938 33 000 22 688 22 688 33 000 33 000 22 688 22 688 33 000

LPG Cbm 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21E 3q21E 4q21E 1q22E 2q22E 3q22E 4q22E 1q23E 2q23E 3q23E 4q23E

VLGC 84 000 34 830 74 050 78 205 21 750 15 500 17 800 38 600 38 400 37 500 31 766 31 766 47 000 40 600 26 000 40 000 45 000 30 000 35 000 40 000 31 766 31 766 31 766 31 766 31 766 31 766 31 766 31 766

Semi-ref 22k 22-24,000 26 143 31 037 35 689 19 275 15 875 16 300 17 700 22 400 24 900 20 831 20 831 22 000 22 500 22 500 22 500 24 750 24 500 24 500 26 000 20 831 20 831 20 831 20 831 20 831 20 831 20 831 20 831

Semi-ref 15k 15 000 23 552 30 405 34 962 20 671 15 852 15 300 19 000 19 000 19 000 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040 19 040

Semi-ref 12k 12 000 22 945 25 182 27 295 18 092 14 106 14 000 15 800 15 800 15 800 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830 15 830

Semi-ref 5k 5 000 8 875 9 141 9 415 8 224 8 224 9 100 9 100 9 100 9 100 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088 9 088

Container TEU 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 1q20 2q20 3q20 4q20 1q21 2q21E 3q21E 4q21E 1q22E 2q22E 3q22E 4q22E 1q23E 2q23E 3q23E 4q23E

Post-Panamax 16-18k 18 000 50 391 52 400 49 163 33 202 35 950 40 700 47 500 38 900 72 500 67 500 59 274 37 500 37 500 37 500 43 000 57 500 77 500 77 500 77 500 67 500 67 500 67 500 67 500 37 500 37 500 37 500 37 500

Post-Panamax 14-16k 14 500 47 031 48 906 45 885 30 988 33 553 40 000 42 500 36 400 70 000 65 000 56 712 35 000 35 000 35 000 40 500 55 000 75 000 75 000 75 000 65 000 65 000 65 000 65 000 35 000 35 000 35 000 35 000

Post-Panamax 10-12k 10 000 40 313 41 920 39 330 26 561 28 760 34 800 32 500 31 400 80 000 55 000 48 086 30 000 30 000 30 000 35 500 50 000 70 000 100 000 100 000 60 000 60 000 50 000 50 000 30 000 30 000 30 000 30 000

Post-Panamax 8-10k 8 500 37 625 39 125 36 708 24 791 26 843 30 500 35 600 27 100 72 500 45 000 41 661 28 000 17 400 30 000 33 000 45 000 65 000 90 000 90 000 50 000 50 000 40 000 40 000 25 000 25 000 25 000 25 000

Panamax 4.5-5k 4 600 8 324 8 771 11 817 4 979 7 913 10 500 11 100 13 500 55 000 27 500 29 051 12 900 8 500 12 600 20 000 30 000 50 000 70 000 70 000 30 000 30 000 25 000 25 000 17 500 17 500 17 500 17 500

Sub-Panamax 2.5-3k 2 750 7 036 7 425 9 562 6 000 8 788 10 000 9 800 10 500 40 000 18 800 18 281 9 900 8 000 9 400 14 500 20 000 30 000 55 000 55 000 20 000 20 000 17 500 17 500 13 500 13 500 13 500 13 500

Handy 1.5-2k 1 700 7 315 7 313 8 842 6 804 7 500 9 100 8 100 8 100 30 000 13 800 13 977 7 800 6 300 7 000 11 300 15 000 25 000 40 000 40 000 15 000 15 000 12 500 12 500 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000

Handy 1-1.5k 1 000 6 480 6 396 7 250 6 550 6 334 7 100 6 100 6 100 21 300 11 300 11 934 6 000 5 400 5 600 7 300 10 000 15 000 30 000 30 000 12 500 12 500 10 000 10 000 9 000 9 000 9 000 9 000

Feedermax 0.7-1k 725 4 999 4 979 5 367 5 433 5 271 5 600 5 200 5 500 18 500 9 500 9 852 5 000 4 900 5 200 7 000 10 000 14 000 25 000 25 000 10 000 10 000 9 000 9 000 8 000 8 000 8 000 8 000


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42



Tankers VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR2 LR1 MR

USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change USDm Change

Newbuild 93.0 64.0 54.0 56.0 43.0 37.0

Resale 94.5 64.0 54.0 56.0 43.0 37.0

5 year 74.0 47.5 40.0 42.0 32.0 28.0

10 year 51.5 32.0 25.0 27.0 21.0 18.0

15 year 37.0 22.0 17.0 18.5 13.5 12.0

Bulkers Newcastlemax Capesize Kamsarmax Panamax Ultramax Supramax


Newbuild 59 55 38 30 34 32

Resale 62 60 38 32 35 33

5 year 49.5 47.5 32 27 30 28

10 year 36 34 24 22 25 22

15 year 22 22 18 17 20 16

Container 9k teu 6.6k teu 4.5k teu 2.7k teu 1.7k teu 1k teu


Newbuild 105 80 68 38 27 23

Resale 120 95 68 48 35 29

5 year 90 85 65 46 32 25

10 year 88 70 60 44 30 21

15 year 85 62 54 40 25 17

Gas MEGI/XDF TFDE 155k Steam Turbine VLGC MGC 22k Semi-Ref


Newbuild 205 n/a n/a 74 46 46

Resale 205 n/a n/a 81 48 48

5 year n/a 135 90 71 41 40

10 year n/a 117 65 59 32 31

15 year n/a 99 45 44 23 22


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys, Baltic Exchange

Capesize 5 TC avg.VLCC Wafr/AG-East

VLGC rates AG-East LNG spot seasonality (160k cbm TFDE)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

US

Dk/d

5 year range 2020 Average '15-'20 2021 Last (14.okt)

-5

15

35

55

75

95

115

135


US

Dk/d

5 year range 2020 Average '15-'20 2021

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan Feb Mar April May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

US

Dk/d

Average '16-20 2020 2021

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan Mar Jun Aug Oct

US

Dk/d

5 year range Average '16-'20 2020 2021


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Source: Factset, Fearnley

1 Month Total Return by Segment YTD Total Return by Segment1 Week Total Return by Segment

Sector Overview

-6%

-4%

-3%

-3%

-3%

-1%

-1%

0%

0%

1%

1%

8%

17%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Dry Bulk

LPG Transportation

Product Tankers

Container Liners

LNG Transportation

Other MLP/Leasing

Container Lessors

Chemicals

Crude Tankers

FSRU/FLNG

LNG MLP

LNG Industrial

RoRo/PCTC

-13%

-5%

-4%

-4%

4%

6%

14%

15%

17%

17%

17%

26%

35%

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

Container Liners

Dry Bulk

Container Lessors

LPG Transportation

Product Tankers

RoRo/PCTC

LNG MLP

Chemicals

Other MLP/Leasing

LNG Industrial

Crude Tankers

FSRU/FLNG

LNG Transportation

2%

15%

15%

23%

26%

32%

54%

57%

58%

77%

91%

136%

155%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 180%

LPG Transportation

Product Tankers

Chemicals

LNG MLP

LNG Industrial

Crude Tankers

Other MLP/Leasing

RoRo/PCTC

FSRU/FLNG

Container Liners

Container Lessors

LNG Transportation

Dry Bulk


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42



Sources: Factset, Fearnley


-11%

-10%

-8%

-3%

-3%

-2%

-2%

-2%

-1%

-1%

-1%

2%

2%

4%

5%

-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

NNA

TNP

STNG

NAT

TNK

FRO

OET

ASC

TRMD

HAFNIA

INSW

HUNT

CCORB

DHT

EURN

TOTAL RETURNLast week

-10%

-4%

1%

2%

2%

3%

4%

6%

6%

7%

11%

11%

14%

16%

30%

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

NNA

INSW

STNG

NAT

OET

CCORB

TRMD

HAFNIA

HUNT

TNK

ASC

FRO

TNP

DHT

EURN

TOTAL RETURNLast month

-17%

-16%

12%

12%

13%

14%

18%

19%

21%

29%

41%

43%

43%

51%

70%

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

CCORB

NAT

TRMD

INSW

HAFNIA

NNA

TNP

ASC

TNK

DHT

FRO

EURN

HUNT

STNG

OET

TOTAL RETURNYTD

TANKERS Ticker Target Upside / Sh. price Share Outstanding MCap. Liquidity Float

Recommendations Bloomberg (lcl) Downside (lcl) (currency) (millions) (USDm) ($m pd) % week month YTD

Ardmore ASC US 5.8 49 % 3.9 USD 34 133 1.0 n/a -1.5 11.2 18.7

DHT DHT US 10.0 50 % 6.7 USD 171 1 138 12.7 83 % 0.5 20.4 29.4

Euronav EURN US 13.5 24 % 10.9 USD 212 2 300 36.9 73 % 2.9 33.0 37.0

Frontline FRO NO 120.0 57 % 76.6 NOK 198 1 801 14.8 54 % -1.8 24.6 41.1

Hafnia HAFNIA NO 26.0 47 % 17.7 NOK 368 775 0.0 n/a n/a n/a n/a

Hunter Group HUNT NO 4.7 53 % 3.1 NOK 575 211 0.5 47 % 0.1 14.9 43.2

International Seaw ays INSW 30.0 76 % 17.1 USD 50 850 5.8 98 % -1.6 -0.5 12.4

Nordic American Tankers NAT US 2.4 USD 153 373 6.0 97 % -3.6 3.0 -15.9

Okeanis Eco Tankers OET NO 150.0 75 % 85.5 NOK 32 329 0.3 39 % -1.0 8.8 69.9

Scorpio Tankers STNG US 32.0 93 % 16.6 USD 59 977 14.5 89 % -7.6 3.1 51.1

Teekay Tankers TNK US 23.0 72 % 13.4 USD 34 449 4.4 83 % -5.0 16.8 21.4

Torm TRMD.A 80.0 58 % 50.5 DKK 80 634 1.2 99 % -2.2 3.8 12.2

Average 59 % 831 76 % -1.9 12.6 29.1

% Total return, last

SHIPPING WEEKLY 42 Report produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)

SHIPPING WEEKLY 42



TANKERS Sh. price Share MCap. NAV/share P/NAV EV/GAV

Overview pricing Ticker (lcl) (curncy.) (USDm) (lcl) (1/5) (2/6) 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e

Ardmore ASC US 3.9 USD 133 7.2 0.5 0.8 8x 13x 4x nm nm 3x 0.3x 0.4x 0.4x 0 % 0 % 0 %

DHT DHT US 6.7 USD 1138 7.0 1.0 1.0 3x 7x 3x 3x 17x 4x 0.8x 1.0x 0.9x 21 % 5 % 17 %

Euronav EURN US 10.9 USD 2300 12.7 0.9 0.9 3x 10x 3x 4x nm 4x 0.7x 1.0x 0.9x 18 % 6 % 21 %

Frontline FRO NO 76.6 NOK 1801 60.0 1.3 1.1 5x 11x 5x 3x 14x 3x 0.8x 1.0x 0.9x 19 % 7 % 26 %

Hafnia HAFNIA NO 17.7 NOK 775 22.9 0.8 0.9 5x 8x 3x 4x 29x 2x 0.6x 0.7x 0.6x 11 % 5 % 22 %

Hunter Group HUNT NO 3.1 NOK 211 3.3 0.9 1.0 4x 9x 4x 4x 15x 4x 0.9x 1.0x 0.9x 0 % 34 % 15 %

International Seaw ays INSW 17.1 USD 850 31.1 0.5 0.8 4x 8x 2x 4x 7x 2x 0.5x 0.8x 0.6x 1 % 8 % 24 %

Nordic American Tankers NAT US 2.4 USD 373 2.5 1.0 1.0 5x 9x 2x 9x nm 2x 0.7x 0.6x 0.5x 14 % 6 % 22 %

Okeanis Eco Tankers OET NO 85.5 NOK 329 97.9 0.9 1.0 6x 6x 4x 2x 7x 3x 0.5x 0.8x 0.7x 23 % 15 % 19 %

Scorpio Tankers STNG US 16.6 USD 977 26.0 0.6 0.9 7x 12x 4x 6x nm 2x 0.3x 0.5x 0.4x 4 % 2 % 2 %

Teekay Tankers TNK US 13.4 USD 449 21.8 0.6 0.8 3x 7x 1x 2x nm 2x 0.3x 0.4x 0.3x 0 % 0 % 0 %

Torm TRMD.A 50.5 DKK 634 76.0 0.7 0.8 4x 10x 3x 5x nm 3x 0.5x 0.6x 0.5x 11 % 0 % 9 %

Average 664 0.8 0.9 5x 8x 3x 4x 10x 3x 0.5x 0.6x 0.6x 9 % 6 % 12 %

EV/EBITDA adj. P/E adj. P/B Dividend yield

TANKERS Rep. curncy MCap. EV Net liab. Capex NAV GAV

Estimates millions (1) (1+3+4=2) (3) (4) (6-3-4=5) (6) 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e

Ardmore USD 133 461 303 25 246 574 57 32 100 1 -23 45 350 311 236 0.03 -0.67 1.32

DHT USD 1 138 1 644 507 - 1 193 1 699 450 221 463 246 67 317 381 393 115 1.58 0.39 1.86

Euronav USD 2 300 3 778 1 143 335 2 691 4 169 831 329 986 459 -55 593 1 112 1 195 797 2.16 -0.26 2.81

Frontline USD 1 801 4 511 1 900 810 1 411 4 121 634 346 827 417 130 581 2 026 2 184 2 221 2.13 0.66 2.94

Hafnia USD 775 1 860 1 084 - 1 003 2 088 363 229 541 164 27 344 1 207 1 061 711 0.45 0.07 0.93

Hunter Group USD 211 426 215 - 223 439 95 38 75 64 14 52 159 125 89 0.11 0.02 0.09

International Seaw ays USD 850 2 135 347 938 1 551 2 836 215 195 667 124 85 504 356 823 445 4.40 2.35 10.11

Nordic American Tankers USD 373 771 287 112 378 777 147 71 258 47 -24 159 295 293 208 0.32 -0.16 1.05

Okeanis Eco Tankers USD 329 1 338 811 198 377 1 386 183 126 203 104 49 117 809 454 543 3.19 1.52 3.63

Scorpio Tankers USD 977 3 901 2 857 67 1 531 4 456 508 324 818 108 -59 443 2 860 2 779 2 200 1.85 -1.00 7.53

Teekay Tankers USD 449 962 494 19 733 1 246 330 126 437 165 -30 284 517 454 82 4.90 -0.88 8.45

Torm USD 634 1 625 715 276 954 1 945 279 156 393 107 -11 220 707 913 624 1.4 -0.1 2.7

Average 664 1 780 938 178 861 1 976 330 157 389 152 -14 210 915 917 796 1.9 -0.3 2.9

EBITDA Net income Net debt EPS


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Factset, Fearnleys, Company data


Tankers

DHT EURN FRO HUNT INSW NAT OET TNK ASC HAFNIA STNG TRMD

Share price (local) 6.7 10.9 76.6 3.1 17.1 2.4 85.5 13.4 3.9 18.0 16.6 50.5

Marketcap (fully diluted) 1 138 2 300 1 801 211 856 385 329 449 130 776 977 634

Net liabilities 470 1 796 2 755 163 1 211 390 915 559 310 1 058 2 924 977

EV 1 608 4 095 4 556 373 2 066 775 1 245 1 008 440 1 834 3 901 1 610

Fleet value (USDm) DHT EURN FRO HUNT INSW NAT OET TNK ASC HAFNIA STNG TRMD

Fleet value 1 636 4 220 4 121 354 2 364 773 1 303 1 209 583 2 127 4 358 1 889

Time Charter adjustmeents 1 196 158 0 -2 0 -1

Total f leet value 1 636 4 416 4 121 354 2 522 773 1 301 1 209 583 2 126 4 358 1 889

VLCC 1 636 3 163 1 878 354 872 719 26

Suezmax 1 015 1 311 534 773 351 702

Aframax 69 287

LR2 932 32 40 194 302 1 808 544

LR1 99 586 406 178

MR 662 421 1 004 1 799 1 147

SR 55 197 345 20

Other assets/investments 6 1 40 0 0 24 11 0 97 18

GAV 1 642 4 416 4 122 354 2 562 773 1 302 1 233 594 2 127 4 456 1 907

Net liabilities -470 -1 796 -2 755 -163 -1 211 -390 -915 -559 -310 -1 058 -2 924 -977

NAV 1 172 2 620 1 366 191 1 352 383 386 674 284 1 069 1 531 930

NAV per share 7 12 58 3 27 2 100 20 8 25 26 74

P/NAV 1.0x 0.9x 1.3x 1.1x 0.6x 1.0x 0.9x 0.7x 0.5x 0.73x 0.6x 0.7x

EV/GAV 1.0x 0.9x 1.1x 1.06x 0.8x 1.0x 0.96x 0.8x 0.7x 0.9x 0.9x 0.8x

LTV, net 29 % 43 % 67 % 46 % 51 % 50 % 70 % 50 % 53 % 51 % 67 % 52 %

LTV, gross 32 % 46 % 73 % 56 % 61 % 58 % 86 % 58 % 70 % 58 % 74 % 60 %


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Factset, Fearnleys, Company data Note: Implied VLCC: For illustrative purposes only, not all companies own VLCCs

Sensitivity to Δ in steel values 10% Δ in steel valuesImplied VLCC resale (USDm)

Tankers - Fleet Age and SizeCrude tankers – Owned fleet


9388

104100

76

9590

77

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

DHT EURN FRO HUNT INSW NAT OET TNK

US

Dm

14 %16 %

30 %

19 %17 %

20 %

34 %

18 %21 % 20 %

28 %

20 %

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

25 %

30 %

35 %

40 %

DHT EURN FRO HUNT INSW NAT OET TNK ASC HAFNIA STNG TORM

NA

V u

psid

eV

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

DHT EURN FRO HUNT INSW NAT OET TNKVLCC Suezmax Aframax LR2 LR1 MR

DHT

EURN

FRO

HUNT

INSW

NAT

OET

TNK

ASCSTNG TRMD

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

Avg

. D

wt

Avg. Age


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnley

Tankers Historical P/ NAV EURN/ DHT/ FRO historical P/ NAV


0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

0.0

0.3

0.5

0.8

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.8

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Current

Avg. P/NAV VLCC rates (rhs)

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.7

jun. 15 des. 15 jun. 16 des. 16 jun. 17 des. 17 jun. 18 des. 18 jun. 19 des. 19 jun. 20 des. 20 jun. 21

EURN-US DHT-US FRO-NO


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnley


-5 000

15 000

35 000

55 000

75 000

95 000

115 000

135 000

155 000

Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Sep-17 Nov-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21

US

D/d

TCE Annual avg.

Return of COSCO fleet

Price war

Abqiaq attack

Low supply growth & high deliveriesOPEC+ Cut


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnley

VLCC values (Yearly averages) Products 5-year asset valuesNB prices


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

Avearg

e N

B

pri

ce (

US

Dm

)

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

25

45

65

85

105

125

145

165

1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019

US

Dm

Average yearly NB price Average yearly resale price

Average yearly 5y old Average yearly 10y old

10

20

30

40

50

60

jan. 13 okt. 13 jul. 14 apr. 15 jan. 16 okt. 16 jul. 17 apr. 18 jan. 19 okt. 19

US

Dm

LR2 LR1 MR


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Source: Fearnley

Aframax MRVLCC


93

95

74

52

37

27 24

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

NB 0 5 10 15 20 25

USD

m

Years

NBP VLCC VLCC Demolition

54

54

40

25

17

1110

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

NB 0 5 10 15 20 25

USD

m

Years

NBP Aframax Aframax Demolition

37

37

28

18

12

7

6

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

NB 0 5 10 15 20 25

USD

m

Years

NBP MR MR Demolition


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnley Notes: Unlevered at 10% wacc, 25 years useful life, OPEX+G&A ~$9,000/d

TC implied parity value vs. current prices2017/18 cycle vs current

2014/15 cycle vs current


-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

NB Resale 5-year old 10y old NB Resale 5-year old 10y old

VLCC Suezmax

% u

psid

e

US

Dm

%upside (rhs) 2017/18 cycle (lhs) Current (lhs)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

NB Resale 5-year old 10y old NB Resale 5-year old 10y old

LR1 MR

% u

psid

e

US

Dm

%upside (rhs) 2014/15 cycle (lhs) Current (lhs)

Resale, (eco+scrb)

5yr, (eco)

10yr (strd)

15yr, (-10%)

20yr, (-20%)

20

35

50

65

80

95

110

125

$ 10k/d $ 20k/d $ 30k/d $ 40k/d $ 50k/d $ 60k/d $ 70k/d $ 80k/d

USD

m

Resale 5 yr old 10 yr old 15 yr old 20 yr old Current


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnley

Product Tanker spot earnings VLCC MEG-Far East SeasonalityCrude tanker spot earnings


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

US

Dk/d

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

US

Dk/d

MR LR2

-5

15

35

55

75

95

115

135

1 3 5 7 9 111315171921232527293133353739414345474951

US

Dk/d

(w

eekly

avg

.)

Avg. 2010-2019 2019 2020 2021


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys Note: approx. VLCC demand for 1 mbpd incremental supply from key exporters to key importers


Sources: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys Note: approx. VLCC demand for 1 mbpd incremental supply from key exporters to key importers

Tankers

Crude Products

”Dirty” ”Clean”

Vessel Size

Cargo Size

VLCC200k dwt

2m bbls

Suezmax120-200k dwt

1m

Aframax80-120k dwt

0.5-0.8m bbls

Panamax60-80k dwt

0.4-0.5m bbls

Handysize<60k dwt

<0.35m bbls

LR280-120k dwt

0.5-0.8m bbls

LR160-80k dwt

0.4-0.6m bbls

MR/Handymax25-60k dwt

0.2-0.4m bbls

Handysize<25k dwt

<0.2m bbls

~53

~38

~21

~22

~37

~41

~20

1 mbpd VLCC equivalent demand

Total ships ~850 ~650 ~1 075 ~475 ~4 225 ~400 ~375 ~2 100 ~6 400


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys

Global crude balance (mb/d) Global crude balance - Gap to OECD inventories


50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22C

rud

e S

up

ply

/ D

em

an

d

Cru

de S

tock b

uild

(d

raw

) m

b/d

Crude Stock Build / (Draw) Crude Demand Crude Supply

-450

-400

-350

-300

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22

Cru

de S

tock b

uild

(d

raw

) m

b/d

Gap to OECD 5-year avg.


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


OECD inventory change vs VLCC rates VLCC ton-miles vs. production growth


-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Avg. VLCC

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1q00 3q02 1q05 3q07 1q10 3q12 1q15 3q17 1q20

Oil

pro

duction g

row

th

VLC

C t

on-m

ile g

row

th

VLCC ton-miles growth (% y/y) Oil production growth (% y/y)


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


MEG loadings – Fixture count VLCC loadings, main trades

MEG – China Fixtures


-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

jan.19 apr.19 jul.19 okt.19 jan.20 apr.20 jul.20 okt.20 jan.21 apr.21 jul.21

y/y

ch

an

ge

(%

)

# o

f c

arg

oe

s

MEG Fixture count y/y % change (rhs)

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

jan.18 apr.18 jul.18 okt.18 jan.19 apr.19 jul.19 okt.19 jan.20 apr.20 jul.20 okt.20 jan.21 apr.21 jul.21

US

Dk/d

# o

f c

arg

oe

s

Chinese owner Non-Chinese owner TCE MEG - Feast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

jan.18 mai.18 sep.18 jan.19 mai.19 sep.19 jan.20 mai.20 sep.20 jan.21 mai.21

# s

po

t M

EG

-Ea

st

¤ o

f s

po

t o

the

rs (

ex

. M

EG

-E

as

t)

Atlantic-East MEG-West WAFR-E Americas-E MEG-EAST


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


US inventories – commercial crudeUS oil production

US Refinery - crude runsUS Crude oil exports


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Mm

bl/d

5-year range 2016-20 avg. 2019 2020 2021

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

Mb

bl/d

5-year range 2016-20 avg. 2019 2020 2021

350

370

390

410

430

450

470

490

510

530

550

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

m b

bls

5-year range 2016-20 avg. 2021 2020

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

m b

bls

5-year range 2016-20 avg. 2019 2020 2021


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: EIA, IEA, Energy Aspects, Bloomberg, Fearnleys Notes: Total OECD+Non-OECD

Refinery Crude Throughput seasonality Refinery maintenance outagesRefinery throughput


65

70

75

80

85

Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Des

MM

bb

l

2014 2015 2016 2017

2018 2019 2020 2021

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

65

70

75

80

85

90

MM

bb

l

Total (mbpd) 3m ma

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


mb

/d

5-year range 2016-20 avg. 2019

2020 2021


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: EIA, Fearnley

Singapore marginsNW Europe margins

USG marginsMED margins


-2

0

2

4

6

8

10


Op

era

tin

g M

arg

in

Dubai (Cracking) Dubai (Hydroskimming) Tapis (Cracking) Tapis (Hydroskimming)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


Op

era

tin

g M

arg

in

50/50 HLS/LLS (Cracking) Mars (Cracking) ASCI (Cracking)

50/50 LLS/HLS (Coking) 50/50 Maya/Mars (Coking)

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10


Op

era

tin

g M

arg

in

Brent Cracking Brent Hydroskimming Urals Cracking Urals Hydroskimming

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


Op

era

tin

g M

arg

in

Es Sider (Cracking) Es Sider (Hydroskimming) Urals (Cracking) Urals (Hydroskimming)


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Bloomberg, Fearnley


Theme Country Measure F. Latest Last 1 period 1 year 2020 2021 2021

report date f igure ago ago p/p y/y p/p y/y Absolute % YoY p/p y/y

Crude Production

OPEC-12 production Oil production OPEC mbpd M 30.sep.21 27.5 27.1 24.3 0.4 3.2 1.3% 13.3% 5 % 12 %

Saudi-Arabia Production Oil production Saudi-Arabia mbpd M 30.sep.21 9.7 9.6 8.9 0.1 0.8 0.6% 8.4% 13 % 9 %

US Crude Oil Prod. Oil production US mbpd M 31.aug.21 11.5 11.2 9.7 0.3 1.8 2.7% 18.6% 3 % 7 %

Inventories

US Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR Inventory US mb W 25.sep.21 418.5 414.0 492.4 4.6 (73.9) 1.1% (15.0%) -10 % -16 %

US Gasoline Stocks Inventory US mb W 25.sep.21 221.8 221.6 228.2 0.2 (6.4) 0.1% (2.8%) -4 % -5 %

US Destillate Stocks Inventory US mb W 25.sep.21 129.7 129.3 172.8 0.4 (43.0) 0.3% (24.9%) 0 % -23 %

Crude Import

US Crude Oil Imports, excl. SPR Oil Imports US mbpd M 31.aug.21 6.3 6.4 4.9 (0.1) 1.4 (1.4%) 29.4% 11 % 14 %

China Crude Oil Imports Oil Imports China mbpd M 31.aug.21 10.7 9.9 11.4 0.8 (0.7) 8.0% (6.2%) -4 % -17 %

South Korea Crude Oil Imports Oil Imports S. Korea mbpd M 30.apr.20 2.7 2.8 3.1 (0.1) (0.4) (2.2%) (14.0%) -8 % -10 %

Japan Crude Oil Imports Oil Imports Japan mbpd M 31.aug.21 2.8 2.1 2.4 0.7 0.4 30.9% 15.5% -9 % 6 %

India Crude Oil Imports Oil Imports India mbpd M 31.aug.21 3.8 3.3 3.7 0.5 0.1 15.8% 3.1% -10 % 13 %

Other oil market data

Brent Cont./Backw ard. (3-1m) Commodities Global USD/bl W 02.okt.21 (1.52) (1.73) 0.99 0.21 (2.51) (12.1%) (253.5%) 15 % N/A

NYMEX cracking margins Commodities US USD/bl W 02.okt.21 21.3 18.3 9.3 3.1 12.1 16.7% 130.4% 3 % 116 %

Refinery utilization Commodities US % W 25.sep.21 88.1% 87.5% 75.8% 0.6% 12.3% 0.7% 16.2% 1 % 15 %

Fleet overview

Crude Tanker Fleet in Service Fleet Global DWT mill W 02.okt.21 489.1 490.3 477.4 (1.2) 11.7 (0.2%) 2.5% 1 % 3 %

Crude Orderbook % of Fleet Orderbook Global % of f leet W 02.okt.21 9.3% 9.2% 9.0% 0.0% 0.3% 9.2% 9.0% -8 % -1 %

Crude Fleet avg. Speed Index Speed Global Index W 02.okt.21 7.3 7.3 7.5 0.0 (0.2) 0.3% (2.3%) -2 % -3 %

CRUDE TANKERSAbsolute change % change 3m trend



Product Exports & Imports

US Petroleum consumption Consumption US m bpd W 25.sep.21 20.4 21.1 17.4 (0.8) 2.9 -3.6% 16.9% 6 % 14 %

US Product Imports Imports US mb/month M 30.jul.21 73.0 82.0 59.0 (9.0) 14.0 (10.9%) 23.8% 12 % 40 %

US Gasoline consumption Consumption US m bpd W 25.sep.21 9.4 8.9 8.5 0.5 0.9 5.7% 10.2% 2 % 8 %

China Product Imp. & Exp. Import & Export China mb/month M 31.aug.21 48.8 52.4 45.6 (3.6) 3.2 (6.9%) 7.1% -12 % 20 %

S. Korea Product Imp. & Exp. Import & Export S. Korea mb/month M 30.apr.20 67.7 80.1 71.6 (12.3) (3.9) (15.4%) (5.5%) -4 % 13 %

Japan Product Imp. & Exp. Import & Export Japan mb/month M 31.aug.21 34.4 30.2 29.6 4.2 4.8 14.1% 16.2% -2 % 13 %

Inventories

US Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR Inventory US mb W 25.sep.21 418 542 413 964 492 426 4 578 (73 884) 1.1% (15.0%) -10 % -16 %

US Gasoline Stocks Inventory US mb W 25.sep.21 221 809 221 616 228 182 193 (6 373) 0.1% (2.8%) -4 % -5 %

US Destillate Stocks Inventory US mb W 25.sep.21 129 727 129 343 172 758 384 (43 031) 0.3% (24.9%) 0 % -23 %

Fleet overview

Product Tanker Fleet in Service Fleet Global DWT mill W 02.okt.21 44.1 44.1 44.8 (0.0) (0.7) (0.0%) (1.5%) 0 % -1 %

Product Orderbook % of Fleet Orderbook Global % of f leet W 02.okt.21 6.6% 6.4% 6.9% 0.2% -0.4% 6.4% 6.9% -1 % -4 %

Prod. Fleet avg. Speed Index Speed Global Index W 02.okt.21 4.9 4.6 5.0 0.4 (0.1) 7.7% (1.4%) -3 % -3 %

Other data

DOE refinery Utilization Refinery US % W 25.sep.21 88.1% 87.5% 75.8% 0.6% 12.3% 87.5% 75.8% 1 % 15 %

PRODUCT TANKER M ARKETAbsolute change % change 3m trend


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnley Note: scrap candidates currently above 20 years + those turning 20 for consecutive years

Fleet Development - SuezmaxesFleet Development - VLCC

Fleet Development (gross deliveries) 25k dwt +Fleet Development - Aframax/ LR2


3827

36 3629 31

1928

3953 58

65

49

3123 21

47 4940

68

3727

5

17

3 33

20

-28 -26-34 -28

-3 -1 -3 -9 -13-6

-16 -18-7 -1 -2

-10

-31

-4 -2 -4

-55

-34 -35

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

# o

f ve

ss

els

Delivered Reported under construction Construction not reported Scrapped Sold for demo Scrap candiates, age 20+

18 1424 21 25 23 25 23

14

4537

43 45

178 9

26

51

3126

18 20 17

16

6

-18-24

-15 -13-7 -4 -1

-6 -10 -8

-19

-4 -8-1

-12

-23

-4 -1

-51

-24 -21

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

# o

f ve

ss

els


2111

32

76

5264

50 5668

94

6954

39

16 1729

5364

50 52

19

35

22

23

2

21

26

-15 -19 -13 -19 -23-13 -8 -7 -10 -14 -17

-24 -24 -23 -20

-4 -5

-25

-42

-5 -4

-79

-28

-72

-50

-30

-10

10

30

50

70

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

# o

f ve

ss

els


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022

m d

wt

VLCC Suezmax Afra/ LR2 Pana/LR1 MR Handy


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Source: Fearnleys Notes: charter rates from 2008 - 2021

Segment earnings correlation


R² = 94%

R² = 92%R² = 97%

R² = 91%

R² = 86%

R² = 97%

5

15

25

35

45

55

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

1y T

C, U

SD

k/d

, L

arg

es

t s

eg

me

nt

1y TC, USDk/d, Smallest segment

VLCC/S'max S'Max/Aframax Aframax/LR2 LR2/LR1 LR1/MR MR/SR


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys

Orderbook to fleet - current Orderbook to fleet – Historical (total fleet)


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-96 Jan-00 Jan-04 Jan-08 Jan-12 Jan-16 Jan-20

y/y fleet growth (rhs) OB/Fleet (lhs)

258 mdwt 92 mdwt 73 mdwt 4 mdwt 43 mdwt 29 mdwt

23.6 mdwt

6.5 mdwt 5.3 mdwt

0.0 mdwt

5.6 mdwt

0.2 mdwt

9.2 %

7.0 %7.4 %

0.0 %

13.0 %

0.8 %

80 %

84 %

88 %

92 %

96 %

100 %

VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax LR2 LR1

dw

t

Current fleet Orderbook OB/Fleet


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Source: Fearnley

Scrapping activity last 24 months Scrapping by year


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

jun. 19 sep. 19 des. 19 mar. 20 jun. 20 sep. 20 des. 20 mar. 21 jun. 21

# o

f vessels

VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax LR2 LR1 MR

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

0

5

10

15

20

25

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

¤ o

f to

tal

fleet

m d

wt

VLCC Suezmax Aframax Panamax LR2 LR1 MR % of fleet


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys

Phase out candidates vs orderbook % of scrap candidates vs orderbook


16

11

6

24

31

7

14

8

1113 13

21

21

12 16

42

29

14

7

13

12

13

14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2020 2021 2022 +20y 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Orderbook Fleet by year build

VLC

Cs

China Korea Japan

35%

27%

22%

39%

50%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

% o

f o

rderb

oo

k p

ast

avg

. scra

p a

ge


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys

VLCC scrapping vs market conditions


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

US

D/d

¤ o

f vessels

/ avg

. scra

p a

ge

Spot market TCE (rhs) # of VLCCs Avg. scrap age


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Dry Bulk Carriers


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Factset, Fearnley Note: *Consensus figures

Dry Bulk Carriers

-10%

-10%

-10%

-8%

-7%

-6%

-4%

-4%

-2%

-1%

-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0%

NMM

GNK

NM

EGLE

GOGL

SB

SBLK

JIN

BEL

DNORD


-20%

-19%

-16%

-15%

-15%

-11%

-11%

-10%

-3%

0%

-25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

GNK

PANL

GOGL

EGLE

JIN

SB

NMM

SBLK

DNORD

BEL


53%

66%

125%

127%

133%

135%

138%

146%

156%

161%

255%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%

DNORD

PANL

GOGL

BEL

EGLE

GNK

2343

NMM

NM

SBLK

SB

TOTAL RETURNYTD

DRY BULK Ticker Target Upside / Sh. price Share Outstanding MCap. Liquidity Float

Recommendations Bloomberg (lcl) Downside (lcl) (currency) (millions) (USDm) ($m pd) % week month YTD Year

2020 Bulkers 2020 NO 135.0 5 % 128.5 NOK 22 339 2.3 49 % -1.2 -3.5 142.0 65.8

Belships BEL NO 15.0 8 % 13.9 NOK 253 418 0.9 26 % -0.7 -5.4 127.0 97.2

Diana Shipping DSX US 5.2 -1 % 5.3 USD 88 464 6.0 70 % -4.5 5.8 172.5 69.1

Eagle Bulk EGLE US 50.0 13 % 44.3 USD 13 596 9.7 92 % -7.3 -10.3 133.2 37.6

Genco GNK US 19.0 11 % 17.2 USD 42 713 11.4 92 % -10.0 -12.0 135.5 65.4

Golden Ocean GOGL US 11.0 14 % 9.6 USD 200 1 932 27.7 60 % -5.7 -11.7 124.9 80.0

Pangaea Logistics Solutions PANL US 5.5 22 % 4.5 USD 44 200 2.0 57 % -11.9 -7.8 66.4 56.3

Scorpio Bulkers SALT US 50.0 210 % 16.1 USD 12 193 0.9 33 % n/a n/a n/a n/a

Seanergy Maritime Holdings SBLK US 1.4 11 % 1.3 USD 182 230 10.6 95 % -10.6 0.8 134.4 -85.6

Average 35 % 607 60 % -5.9 -6.4 128.8 67.4



SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Dry Bulk Carriers

DRY BULK Sh. price Share MCap. NAV/share P/NAV EV/GAV

Overview pricing Ticker (lcl) (curncy.) (USDm) (lcl) (1/5) (2/6) 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020e 2021e 2022e

2020 Bulkers 2020 NO 128.5 NOK 339 94.3 1.4 1.2 12x 6x 5x 14x 5x 4x 1.1x 2.3x 2.3x 5 % 20 % 22 %

Belships BEL NO 13.9 NOK 418 14.8 0.9 1.0 20x 6x 4x nm 6x 3x 1.2x 1.9x 1.5x 0 % 9 % 15 %

Diana Shipping DSX US 5.3 USD 464 6.5 0.8 0.9 14x 5x 2x nm 7x 2x 0.4x 1.0x 0.7x 0 % 0 % 0 %

Eagle Bulk EGLE US 44.3 USD 596 54.0 0.8 0.9 13x 3x 1x nm 2x 2x 0.5x 0.9x 0.6x 0 % 0 % 0 %

Genco GNK US 17.2 USD 713 21.3 0.8 0.9 7x 4x 3x nm 5x 3x 0.4x 0.8x 0.9x 1 % 2 % 46 %

Golden Ocean GOGL US 9.6 USD 1932 9.3 1.0 1.0 11x 5x 4x nm 5x 4x 0.5x 1.0x 0.9x 0 % 16 % 17 %

Pangaea Logistics Solutions PANL US 4.5 USD 200 8.9 0.5 0.7 7x 4x 2x 9x 2x 1x 0.7x 0.7x 0.5x 1 % 3 % 3 %

Scorpio Bulkers SALT US 16.1 USD 193 26.4 0.5 0.8 33x 7x 7x nm 16x nm 0.3x 0.3x 0.3x 1 % 1 % 1 %

Seanergy Maritime Holdings SBLK US 1.3 USD 230 1.6 0.8 0.9 15x 5x 2x nm 4x 2x 0.5x 1.0x 0.7x 0 % 0 % 0 %


DRY BULK Rep. curncy MCap. EV Net liab. Capex NAV GAV


2020 Bulkers USD 339 558 219 - 249 467 31 91 99 11 68 76 226 212 203 0.5 3.1 3.4

Belships USD 418 900 231 250 444 926 21 143 184 -17 73 129 247 359 294 -0.1 0.3 0.5

Diana Shipping USD 464 860 309 87 576 972 36 134 259 -34 69 196 337 223 14 -0.4 0.8 2.2

Eagle Bulk USD 596 1 036 395 46 727 1 168 46 311 384 -40 228 306 355 198 -148 -1.0 19.4 22.7

Genco USD 713 1 003 162 128 885 1 175 77 222 298 -9 147 219 270 156 254 -0.2 3.5 5.3

Golden Ocean USD 1 932 3 444 1 418 94 1 863 3 375 151 565 701 -11 410 539 1 064 1 164 874 -0.1 2.1 2.7

Pangaea Logistics Solutions USD 200 462 185 76 395 656 39 121 176 13 90 144 111 214 64 0.3 2.1 3.3

Scorpio Bulkers USD 193 878 654 30 389 1 073 20 94 80 -68 12 -0 454 424 386 -6.9 1.0 -0.0

Seanergy Maritime Holdings USD 230 451 179 43 301 522 15 87 134 -23 54 103 188 160 41 -0.8 0.3 0.6



SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Company data, Fearnley Note: Includes DNORD/ NMM tanker/ container fleet and PANL logistics business valued at 4x EV/ EBITDA

Dry Bulk Carriers

Dry Bulk

2020 BEL DSX EGLE GNK GOGL NMM PANL SBLK SHIP

Share price (local) 132.0 14.0 5.4 47.0 18.8 9.9 30.3 5.0 22.6 1.3

Mkt. Cap (fully dil.) 343 415 480 633 781 1 990 933 222 2 306 230

Net liabilities 219 516 396 440 290 1 636 1 918 261 1 327 222

EV 561 931 876 1 073 1 071 3 627 2 851 484 3 632 451

Fleet value (USDm) 2020 BEL DSX EGLE GNK GOGL NMM PANL SBLK SHIP

Fleet value 467 867 963 1167 1175 3375 4524 562 3631 512

Time Charter adjustmeents 1 -364 94

Total f leet value 467 867 963 1167 1175 3376 4160 656 3631 512

New castlemax 467 163 720 837

Capesize 348 575 1739 50 688 512

Post-Panamax 120 21 176 177

Kamsarmax 140 877 174 986

Panamax 192 220 258 151 28

Ultramax 787 678 402 58 28 90 536

Supramax 80 489 199 54 146 319

Handymax

Handysize

Other vessels 60

Other assets/investments* 0 94 9 0 241 10

GAV 467 961 972 1168 1175 3376 4401 656 3631 522

Net liabilities -219 -516 -396 -440 -290 -1636 -1918 -261 -1327 -222

NAV 249 445 576 727 885 1740 2483 395 2304 301

NAV per share 95.8 15.0 6.5 54.0 21.3 8.7 80.5 8.9 22.5 1.6

P/NAV 1.38x 0.93x 0.83x 0.87x 0.88x 1.14x 0.38x 0.56x 1.00x 0.76x

EV/GAV 1.20x 0.97x 0.90x 0.92x 0.91x 1.07x 0.65x 0.74x 1.00x 0.86x

LTV 0.47x 0.60x 0.41x 0.38x 0.25x 0.48x 0.42x 0.46x 0.37x 0.27x


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Company data, Fearnley Not all companies own Capesizes. For illustrative purposes only

Sensitivity to Δ in steel values -10% Δ in steel valuesImplied Capesize resale

LTV (%)Fleet overview

Dry Bulk Carriers

72

5854 55 55

64

3944

60

36

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


US

Dm

19 %19 %

17 %16 %

13 %

19 %18 %

14 %16 %

17 %

0 %

5 %

10 %

15 %

20 %

25 %


% c

han

ge t

o N

AV

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


# o

f vessels

Total sailing Total NBs

0.47x

0.60x

0.41x0.38x

0.25x

0.48x

0.42x0.46x

0.37x

0.27x

0.00x

0.10x

0.20x

0.30x

0.40x

0.50x

0.60x

0.70x


LT

V


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnley

Dry bulk spot rates Capesize 5 TC avg. rate

Dry Bulk Carriers

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

US

D/d

ay

Capesize Panamax Supramax

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90


US

Dk/d

5 year range 2020 Average '15-'20 2021 Last (14.okt)


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Source: Fearnley

Dry Bulk Carriers

Iron Ore33 %

Coal27 %

Grains10 %

Minor Bulks30 %

Iron ore

Coal

Grains


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys, Baltic Exchange

Average monthly BDI '85-'17

Dry Bulk Carriers

1 550

1 600

1 650

1 700

1 750

1 800

1 850

1 900

1 950

2 000

2 050


Average'85-'17

Slowing industrial

production ahead of

Chinese New Year

Increasing Chinese industrial output and

Northern Hemisphere grain season

Lower energy demand during the

summer season

Chinese re-stocking after Chinese

New Year

Latin America grain season


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnley

Trade growthHistorical trade mix - (million tonnes)

Dry bulk trade by commodity

Dry Bulk Carriers

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Iron ore Coking coal Thermal coal Minor bulk Grains

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018 2021

Total dry bulk trade

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

Iron ore Coking coal Thermal coal Minor bulk Grains


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Dry Bulk Carriers



Key Economic Data

Chinese I.P. Ind. Prod. China % YoY M 31.aug.21 5.3% 6.4% 5.6% -1.1% -0.3% 6.4% 5.6% -39 % 32 %

China Manufacturing PMI PMI China Index, sa M 30.sep.21 49.6 50.1 51.5 (0.5) (1.9) (1.0%) (3.7%) -2 % -2 %

China CEMAC Leading Economic Index Leading indicator China Index M 30.jul.21 99.6 100.4 103.4 (0.8) (3.8) (0.8%) (3.7%) -4 % -2 %

China Real Estate Climate Index Housing market China Index M 31.aug.21 100.9 101.0 100.4 (0.1) 0.5 (0.1%) 0.5% 0 % 1 %

Beijing 2. hand House Prices Housing prices China % YoY M 31.aug.21 10.4% 10.7% 3.6% -0.3% 6.8% 10.7% 3.6% 6 % 273 %

Chinese electricity production Other macro China KWh bn M 31.aug.21 738.4 758.6 723.8 (20.3) 14.5 (2.7%) 2.0% 13 % 7 %

India I.P. Ind. Prod. India % YoY M 30.jul.21 11.5% 13.6% -10.5% -2.1% 22.0% 13.6% (10.5%) -65 % N/A

Steel Trade Data

China Crude steel prod. Steel market China mill tons M 31.aug.21 83 87 95 (3.6) (11.6) (4.1%) (12.2%) -9 % -6 %

China Apparent Steel Demand Steel market China mill tons M 31.aug.21 79 82 93 (2.9) (14.2) (3.6%) (15.2%) -9 % -9 %

China Steel Rebar (25mm) Price Commodity Prices China USD/ton W 25.sep.21 881 858 544 23.0 337.0 2.7% 61.9% 2 % 52 %

Iron Ore Trade Data

China Iron Ore imports Iron Ore Trade China mill tons M 31.aug.21 97.5 88.5 100.4 9.0 (2.9) 10.1% (2.9%) -5 % -12 %

China Iron Ore imp., Brazil Iron Ore Trade China mill tons M 31.aug.21 20.5 18.5 23.5 2.0 (3.0) 10.6% (12.9%) 2 % -12 %

China Iron Ore imp., Australia Iron Ore Trade China mill tons M 31.aug.21 61.0 54.3 55.7 6.7 5.3 12.3% 9.4% -5 % -10 %

China Iron Ore Port Inventories Iron Ore Trade China mill tons M 31.aug.21 11.6 11.5 9.9 0.1 1.7 1.1% 17.3% -3 % 17 %

China Iron Ore Imp. Price (Qing.) Commodity Prices China USD/ton W 25.sep.21 101 101 123 - (22.0) 0.0% (17.9%) -28 % 31 %

Coal Trade Data

Chinese Coal Imports Coal market China mill tons M 31.aug.21 28.1 30.2 20.7 (2.1) 7.4 (7.1%) 35.8% 24 % 20 %

China Coal Imports Australia Coal market China mill tons M 30.nov.20 0.7 2.5 4.5 (1.9) (3.9) (74.1%) (85.5%) -66 % -60 %

Australia Coal Export Coal market Australia mill tons M 30.jul.21 32.3 31.0 28.3 1.3 4.1 4.1% 14.4% 10 % 4 %

New castle 1m Coal Futures Commodity Prices Australia USD/ton W 02.okt.21 228 182 58 46.5 170.5 25.6% 296.2% 51 % 233 %

Grain Trade Data

China soy bean imports Grain market China mill tons M 31.aug.21 9.5 8.7 9.6 0.8 (0.1) 9.4% (1.2%) 16 % -6 %

Other Bulk Trade Data

Brazil Sugar, Paper & Wood Other Commodities Brazil mill tons M 28.feb.20 19.6 19.6 28.3 (0.0) (8.6) (0.0%) (30.5%) -30 % -31 %

Fleet overview

Dry Bulk Fleet in Service Fleet Global DWT mill W 02.okt.21 805.2 804.2 780.6 1.0 24.6 0.1% 3.2% 1 % 3 %

Dry Bulk Orderbook % of Fleet Orderbook Global % of f leet W 02.okt.21 7.8% 7.6% 7.6% 0.1% 0.2% 7.6% 7.6% 4 % -6 %

Dry Bulk Fleet avg. Speed Index Speed Global Index W 02.okt.21 7.3 7.2 7.4 0.1 (0.0) 2.0% (0.7%) -1 % -1 %

New castle Shipm. w aiting time Fleet Australia Days/ship W 27.feb.21 6.2 6.6 5.2 (0.4) 1.0 (5.3%) 19.9% 247 % 117 %

Rate Indexes

Baltic Dry Index Rates Global Index W 02.okt.21 5 202 4 644 2 020 558 3 182 12.0% 157.5% 31 % 159 %

Capesize Baltic index Rates Global Index W 02.okt.21 9 066 7 393 3 987 1 673 5 079 22.6% 127.4% 44 % 130 %

Panamax Baltic index Rates Global Index W 02.okt.21 3 992 4 012 1 373 (20) 2 619 (0.5%) 190.8% 15 % 154 %

Supramax Baltic index Rates Global Index W 02.okt.21 3 383 3 359 991 24 2 392 0.7% 241.4% 26 % 240 %

DRY BULKAbsolute change % change 3m trend


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys

Fleet by year builtDry bulk fleet development

Current fleet by vessel size (by mdwt)

Dry Bulk Carriers

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2021 2022E

m d

wt

Cape Pana Supramax Handysize

0% 0% 0% 0% 1%

5%

14%

36%

75%

80%

84%

88%

94%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

70-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-00 01-05 06-10 11-15 16-18 18 19 20 21 YTD

m d

wt

Cape Pana Supramax Handysize Accumulated share of fleet (rhs)

40 %

25 %

23 %

12 %

Cape

Pana

Supramax

Handysize


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys, Bloomberg

Orderbook/fleet per segmentOverall orderbook/fleet ratio

Historical contractingContracting activity last 24 months

Dry Bulk Carriers

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Ord

er

bo

ok

to

fle

et

rati

o (

%)

y/y fleet growth OB/ fleet ratio

10%

7%

6%

3%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400


y/y

fle

et

gro

wth

(%)

m d

wt

Current fleet Orderbook Orderbook to fleet ratio (rhs)

0

1

1

2

2

3

3

4

4

5

5

mar. 19 jun. 19 sep. 19 des. 19 mar. 20 jun. 20 sep. 20 des. 20 mar. 21 jun. 21

m d

wt


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

m d

wt

Cape Pana Supramax Handysize % of fleet


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnley

0-4 years, 2072, 16%

5-9 years, 4038, 31%

10-14 years, 4143, 31%

15-20 years, 1708, 13%

+20 years, 1245, 9%

0-4 years

5-9 years

10-14 years

15-20 years

+20 years

Scrapping activity per year

Scrapping last 24 months Fleet age composition (no. ships and %)

Dry Bulk Carriers

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

¤ o

f to

tal

fleet

# o

f vessels

scra

pp

ed

Cape Pana Supramax Handysize % of fleet

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

mar. 19 jun. 19 sep. 19 des. 19 mar. 20 jun. 20 sep. 20 des. 20 mar. 21 jun. 21

m d

wt



SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnley

Average newbuilding prices Capesize values Yearly averages

Dry Bulk Carriers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

US

Dm


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

US

Dm

NB Resale 5-year old 10-year old 15-year old 20-year old


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Containers and Liners


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Source: Factset, Fearnley


-10%

-10%

-8%

-7%

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-4%

-3%

-3%

-2%

0%

1%

2%

3%

-12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4%

Evergreen

Yang Ming

Wan Hai

HMM

MPCC

CMRE

Maersk

OOIL

MOL

K-Line

DAC

HLAG

ZIM

ATCO

NYK

GSL


-31%

-28%

-27%

-26%

-26%

-25%

-25%

-24%

-22%

-22%

-21%

-17%

-17%

-16%

-13%

-11%

-35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

K-Line

MOL

ZIM

MPCC

NYK

OOIL

Evergreen

Yang Ming

HLAG

HMM

Wan Hai

Maersk

DAC

CMRE

GSL

ATCO


24%

38%

72%

89%

94%

100%

115%

120%

136%

137%

195%

216%

228%

232%

237%

0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%

Maersk

ATCO

CMRE

GSL

HLAG

OOIL

HMM

MOL

K-Line

Evergreen

MPCC

Yang Ming

NYK

DAC

Wan Hai

TOTAL RETURNYTD

CONTAINER Ticker Target Upside / Sh. price Share Outstanding MCap. Liquidity Float


Atlas Corp ATCO-US 21.0 44 % 14.6 USD 248 3 605 10.7 31 % 0.8 -3.1 37.7 8.6

Danaos Corporation CMRE US 90.0 28 % 70.1 USD 20 1 433 25.3 54 % -1.2 -16.1 231.5 674.0

Global Ship Lease GSL US 16.0 -27 % 22.0 USD 36 795 16.7 82 % 2.6 9.2 89.5 155.2

Hapag-Lloyd HLAG DE n/a n/a 175.1 EUR 176 35 717 6.8 4 % -0.7 -9.3 94.3 134.9

Maersk MAERSKB DC 18 000 9 % 16 500 DKK 19 49 765 69.3 61 % -3.7 -7.7 23.8 76.7

MPC Container MPCC NO 30.0 61 % 18.7 NOK 444 986 11.1 57 % -5.0 -25.1 195.3 76.2

OOIL 316 HK 78.7 -30 % 112.5 HKD 626 9 051 28.1 15 % -11.2 -29.6 99.9 333.8

ZIM ZIM 67.0 53 % 43.9 USD 120 5 287 109.0 52 % -0.2 -9.1 n/a n/a

Average 20% 13 330 45 % -2.3 -11.3 110.3 208.5



SHIPPING WEEKLY 42



CONTAINER Sh. price Share MCap. NAV/share P/NAV EV/GAV

Overview pricing Ticker (lcl) (curncy.) (USDm) (lcl) (1/5) (2/6) 2020e 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e

Atlas Corp ATCO-US 14.6 USD 3605 20.8 0.7 0.9 9x 10x nm 8x 13x nm 0.7x 1.0x nm 6 % 3 % nm

Danaos Corporation CMRE US 70.1 USD 1433 95.2 0.7 0.9 6x 6x 3x 3x 5x 3x 0.4x 0.8x 0.6x 0 % 3 % 4 %

Global Ship Lease GSL US 22.0 USD 795 23.8 0.9 1.0 7x 7x 5x 8x 7x 5x 0.8x 1.3x 1.0x 0 % 2 % 2 %

Hapag-Lloyd HLAG DE 175.1 EUR 35717

Maersk MAERSKB DC 16500.0 DKK 49765 16282 1.0 1.0 7x 3x 6x 19x 3x 24x 1.5x 1.4x 1.4x 2 % 14 % 2 %

MPC Container MPCC NO 18.7 NOK 986 27.0 0.7 0.7 39x 5x 2x nm 6x 3x 0.8x 1.8x 1.4x 0 % 0 % 17 %

OOIL 316 HK 112.5 HKD 9051 26.4 4.3 2.4

ZIM ZIM 43.9 USD 5287 0.0 0.8 0.9 1x 1x 1x 3x 1.5x 1.4x 31 % 12 %



CONTAINER Rep. curncy MCap. EV Net liab. Capex NAV GAV


Atlas Corp USD 3 605 14 166 5 938 4 623 5 155 15 715 930 986 877 312 284 119 4 958 5 391 5 797 1.3 1.1 0.5

Danaos Corporation USD 1 433 2 915 1 482 - 1 947 3 429 312 467 632 159 297 443 1 397 1 185 673 6.6 14.5 21.6

Global Ship Lease USD 795 1 686 774 116 860 1 750 160 216 249 45 115 152 688 608 436 1.48 3.24 4.21

Hapag-Lloyd EUR 35 717 35 717 - - -

Maersk USD 49 765 59 844 7 704 2 375 51 673 61 752 8 331 19 522 8 713 2 393 14 157 1 997 9 508 6 368 5 187 120.82 738.69 108.47

MPC Container USD 986 1 293 193 115 1 425 1 732 14 220 404 -56 147 338 238 154 -43 -0.28 0.36 0.76

OOIL USD 9 051 12 035 2 319 664 2 125 5 109 FALSE nm nm FALSE nm nm FALSE nm nm FALSE nm nm

ZIM USD 5 287 6 183 897 - 6 333 7 230 992 5 073 2 892 536 3 483 1 583 1 263 -905 -1 329 5.1 29.4 13.1

Average 8 668 10 775 1 699 409 8 088 11 652 1 644 4 277 2 578 517 3 057 903 2 217 1 248 985 22.4 131.7 29.6



SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Transpacific trades blended spotSCFI/CCFI blended spot

Charter market – Post Panamaxes 6-12m TCCharter market – Feeders and narrow beam 6-12m TC


5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

jan. 18 apr. 18 jul. 18 okt. 18 jan. 19 apr. 19 jul. 19 okt. 19 jan. 20 apr. 20 jul. 20 okt. 20 jan. 21

US

D/t

eu

)

Feeder Containership 1700 teu grd 6-12 Month Timecharter RateFeeder Containership 2750 teu gls 6-12 Month Timecharter RateNarrow Beam Containership 4400 teu gls 6-12 Month Timecharter Rate

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

jan. 19 apr. 19 jul. 19 okt. 19 jan. 20 apr. 20 jul. 20 okt. 20 jan. 21 apr. 21 jul. 21

US

D/t

eu

)

6,8k teu 8,25k teu

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21

USD

/FEU

CCFI Index SCFI Index

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21

USD

/FEU

China - NAm EC China - Nam WC


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Average sector EBIT margin


Liner EBIT margin rank

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

OOIL OOIL CMA CGM Maersk Maersk Maersk Wan Hai CMA CGM Maersk Maersk ZIM

15 % 3 % 6 % 6 % 9 % 6 % 3 % 7 % 5 % 7 % 15 %

OOIL HLAG Wan Hai CMA CGM Wan Hai CMA CGM HLAG ZIM HLAG HLAG Evergreen

15 % 2 % 4 % 4 % 8 % 6 % 1 % 5 % 4 % 6 % 15 %

Wan Hai CMA CGM OOIL Wan Hai CMA CGM OOIL CMA CGM Wan Hai CMA CGM CMA CGM Maersk

14 % 1 % 4 % 4 % 5 % 5 % 0 % 5 % 2 % 5 % 14 %

Maersk Wan Hai Maersk K-Line OOIL Wan Hai Maersk HLAG CSCL OOIL Wan Hai

12 % 0 % 2 % 2 % 4 % 5 % -2 % 4 % 2 % 5 % 14 %

HMM Maersk HLAG OOIL K-Line HLAG ZIM OOIL Wan Hai CSCL CMA CGM

11 % -2 % 0 % 1 % 3 % 4 % -2 % 3 % 2 % 5 % 13 %

Yang Ming Mitsui OSK Evergreen HLAG CSCL ZIM NYK Evergreen OOIL ZIM OOIL

11 % -3 % -2 % 1 % 2 % 4 % -3 % 3 % 1 % 4 % 13 %

Evergreen HMM K-Line NYK Hanjin Hanjin OOIL Maersk ZIM Wan Hai Yang Ming

10 % -5 % -2 % -1 % 2 % 2 % -4 % 3 % 1 % 4 % 11 %

HLAG Evergreen ZIM Mitsui OSK Evergreen NYK Mitsui OSK CSCL Evergreen Evergreen HLAG

9 % -5 % -2 % -3 % 1 % 1 % -6 % 2 % 0 % 3 % 11 %

CSCL NOL Hanjin ZIM ZIM K-Line K-Line NYK Yang Ming Yang Ming HMM

8 % -6 % -3 % -3 % 1 % 0 % -6 % 2 % -5 % 0 % 11 %

Hanjin Hanjin Mitsui OSK NOL NYK NOL NOL Yang Ming HMM HMM

7 % -7 % -3 % -3 % 1 % -2 % -7 % 0 % -5 % -7 %

NOL ZIM CSCL HMM Yang Ming Evergreen Yang Ming K-Line

6 % -7 % -3 % -3 % 0 % -3 % -8 % 0 %

K-Line NYK NOL Evergreen HMM CSCL CSCL Mitsui OSK

5 % -8 % -3 % -4 % -1 % -3 % -9 % -1 %

NYK K-Line Yang Ming Hanjin HLAG Mitsui OSK Evergreen HMM

5 % -9 % -4 % -4 % -2 % -4 % -10 % -7 %

Mitsui OSK Yang Ming HMM CSCL NOL HMM Hanjin

4 % -9 % -5 % -6 % -2 % -5 % -17 %

ZIM CSCL NYK Yang Ming Mitsui OSK Yang Ming HMM

2 % -15 % -5 % -8 % -3 % -6 % -19 %

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Company data, Clarkson, Fearnley

Quarterly container throughput growth (y-o-y)


-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

1q08 4q08 3q09 2q10 1q11 4q11 3q12 2q13 1q14 4q14 3q15 2q16 1q17 4q17 3q18 2q19 1q20 4q20 3Q21


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

1996 1998 2001 2005 2009 2012 2015 2017 2020

THE ALLIANCE THE ALLIANCEGLOBAL ALLIANCE NEW WORLD ALLIANCE NEW WORLD ALLIANCE NEW WORLD ALLIANCE NEW WORLD ALLIANCE G6 ALLIANCE G6 ALLIANCE

APL APL/NOL APL/NOL APL/NOL APL/NOL APL/NOL APL/NOL Hanjin ONE

MOL MOL MOL MOL MOL MOL MOL MOL Yang Ming

Nedlloyd HMM HMM HMM HMM HMM HMM K-Line Hapaq-Lloyd

OOCL Hapaq-Lloyd Hapaq-Lloyd NYK HMM

MISC GRAND ALLIANCE GRAND ALLIANCE II GRAND ALLIANCE III GRAND ALLIANCE IV OOCL OOCL Yang Ming

OCEAN ALLIANCE

Hapaq-Lloyd Hapaq-Lloyd Hapaq-Lloyd Hapaq-Lloyd NYK NYK Hapaq-Lloyd

GLOBAL ALLIANCE P&O Nedlloyd P&O Nedlloyd OOCL NYK

CYKH

OCEAN ALLIANCEHapaq-Lloyd OOCL OOCL MISC OOCL CYKHE

NYK MISC MISC Hanjin K-Line CMA CGM

NOL K-Line Yang Ming COSCO/OOCL

P&OCL CYK CYKH CYKH CYKH Yang Ming COSCO Evergreen

K-Line Hanjin Hanjin Hanjin Hanjin COSCO Evergreen

2M ALLIANCE

Yang Ming K-Line K-Line K-Line K-Line Evergreen

2M ALLIANCE

COSCO Yang Ming Yang Ming Yang Ming Yang Ming

2M ALLIANCECOSCO COSCO COSCO COSCO

UNITED ALLIANCE

MSC/CMA CGM

MSC MSC MSC

Hanjin Maersk Line Maersk Line Maersk Line/Hamburg Süd

Cho Yang MSC

OCEAN THREEUSAC CMA CGM

MAERSK

CMA CGM

China Shipping

MAERSK UASC

Sea-Land Sea-Land

NO ALLIANCE

MSC MSC MSC MSC MSC MSC

CMA CGM CMA CGM CMA CGM CMA CGM CMA CGM

Evergreen Evergreen Evergreen Evergreen Evergreen Evergreen

Maersk SeaLand Maersk SeaLand Maersk SeaLand




SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Demand projections Measure 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E

Transpacific teu (m) 20.2 21.1 20.5 18.4 20.3 20.8 20.8 21.7 23.1 23.7 25.1 26.0 26.8 26.2 27.4 29.5 30.0

Far East-Europe teu (m) 14.5 16.9 16.8 17.3 19.6 20.4 20.1 21.2 22.2 21.9 22.7 23.8 23.8 24.8 24.0 25.2 25.8

Transatlantic teu (m) 6.1 6.5 6.3 5.3 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.6 6.8 6.9 7.4 7.9 8.1 7.7 8.2 8.6

Non-mainlane East-West teu (m) 11.7 12.8 14.3 14.6 14.6 14.7 15.5 15.7 17.8 18.7 19.8 20.7 21.2 21.2 20.0 21.4 22.6

North-South teu (m) 20.1 20.6 22.0 20.7 23.5 27.2 27.6 28.9 28.1 28.0 28.3 30.2 31.9 32.1 31.8 33.8 34.9

Intra regional teu (m) 44.9 53.1 56.7 48.4 50.7 55.3 59.1 62.8 66.5 68.6 72.3 77.0 81.4 84.3 83.6 88.3 92.5

Total trade teu (m) 117.6 131.0 136.6 124.7 134.6 144.5 149.2 156.6 164.4 167.6 175.2 185.1 193.0 196.8 194.5 206.5 214.3

Demand growth % 11.2 % 11.5 % 4.2 % -8.7 % 7.9 % 7.4 % 3.3 % 5.0 % 5.0 % 2.0 % 4.5 % 5.7 % 4.3 % 2.0 % -1.2 % 6.2 % 3.8 %

Weight

Transpacific 17 % 16 % 15 % 15 % 15 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 14 % 13 % 14 % 14 % 14 %

Far East-Europe 12 % 13 % 12 % 14 % 15 % 14 % 13 % 14 % 14 % 13 % 13 % 13 % 12 % 13 % 12 % 12 % 12 %

Transatlantic 5 % 5 % 5 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 % 4 %

Non-mainlane East-West 10 % 10 % 10 % 12 % 11 % 10 % 10 % 10 % 11 % 11 % 11 % 11 % 11 % 11 % 10 % 10 % 11 %

North-South 17 % 16 % 16 % 17 % 17 % 19 % 18 % 18 % 17 % 17 % 16 % 16 % 17 % 16 % 16 % 16 % 16 %

Intra regional 38 % 41 % 42 % 39 % 38 % 38 % 40 % 40 % 40 % 41 % 41 % 42 % 42 % 43 % 43 % 43 % 43 %

Sum/ Total 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 % 100 %

y/y growth

Transpacific 10 % 4 % -3 % -10 % 10 % 2 % 0 % 4 % 6 % 3 % 6 % 4 % 3 % -2 % 5 % 8 % 1 %

Far East-Europe 19 % 16 % -1 % 3 % 13 % 4 % -1 % 5 % 5 % -2 % 4 % 5 % 0 % 4 % -3 % 5 % 2 %

Transatlantic 3 % 6 % -3 % -16 % 11 % 3 % 0 % 3 % 6 % 2 % 2 % 7 % 6 % 3 % -6 % 7 % 4 %

Non-mainlane East-West 8 % 9 % 12 % 2 % 0 % 1 % 5 % 2 % 14 % 5 % 6 % 5 % 3 % 0 % -6 % 7 % 5 %

North-South 6 % 2 % 7 % -6 % 14 % 16 % 1 % 5 % -3 % 0 % 1 % 7 % 6 % 1 % -1 % 6 % 3 %

Intra regional 14 % 18 % 7 % -15 % 5 % 9 % 7 % 6 % 6 % 3 % 5 % 6 % 6 % 3 % -1 % 6 % 5 %

World 11 % 11 % 4 % -9 % 8 % 7 % 3 % 5 % 5 % 2 % 4 % 6 % 4 % 2 % -1 % 6 % 4 %

Sources: SIN, Fearnley

5%

-3%-6% -6%

-1% -1% -1%

8%5%

7% 7% 6% 6% 6%

3% 2%4% 4% 3%

5%4%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

Transpacific Far East-Europe Transatlantic Non-mainlane East-West North-South Intra regional World

2020 2021E 5y average


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42





Trade Statistics

Chinese exports Exports China USDbn M 31.aug.21 294.3 282.7 234.4 11.7 59.9 4.1% 25.6% 12 % 25 %

Chinese exports to North Am. Exports China USDbn M 31.aug.21 56 54 49 2 7 3.6% 14.7% 19 % 15 %

Chinese exports to Europe Exports China USDbn M 31.aug.21 63 59 51 4 12 7.5% 22.7% 15 % 21 %

Japan Exports Exports Japan USDbn M 31.aug.21 60.1 67.0 49.5 (6.9) 11 (10.4%) 21.5% 1 % 32 %

South Korea Exports Exports S. Korea USDbn M 30.sep.21 55.8 53.2 47.8 2.6 8.0 4.9% 16.7% 5 % 26 %

Taiw an Exports Exports Taiw an USDbn M 31.aug.21 39.6 38.0 31.2 1.6 8 4.2% 26.9% 5 % 32 %

US Imports USDbn Imports US USDbn M 30.jul.21 283 283 232 (0) 51 (0.2%) 22.1% 4 % 31 %

Euro Imports Imports Euro EURbn M 30.jul.21 185 192 158 (7) 27 (3.5%) 17.1% 3 % 26 %

Retail data

US Retail sales ex-auto Retail Sector US % YoY M 31.aug.21 16.2% 15.2% 2.8% 1.0% 13.4% 15.2% 2.8% -45 % 828 %

Eurozone Retail sales Retail Sector Eurozone % YoY M 30.jul.21 3.1% 5.4% 0.5% -2.3% 2.6% 5.4% 0.5% -53 % N/A

UK Retail sales ex-food Retail Sector UK % YoY M 31.aug.21 5.2% 7.7% -3.3% -2.5% 8.5% 7.7% (3.3%) -81 % N/A

German retail sales ex-auto/gas Retail Sector Germany % YoY M 31.aug.21 0.5% 0.7% 8.1% -0.2% -7.6% 0.7% 8.1% -59 % -59 %

Spain Retail Sales Retail sector Spain % YoY M 31.aug.21 -0.1% 0.1% -4.7% -0.2% 4.6% 0.1% (4.7%) -98 % N/A

Italy Retail Sales Retail sector Italy % YoY M 30.jul.21 -1.2% 0.6% -1.1% -1.8% -0.1% 0.6% (1.1%) -93 % -98 %

Inventory Data

US Retail Inventory-to-Sales Business condition US Factor M 30.jul.21 1.11 1.08 1.21 0.03 (0.10) 2.8% (8.3%) -4 % -13 %

US Wholesale Inventory-to-Sales Business condition US Factor M 30.jul.21 1.20 1.22 1.33 (0.02) (0.13) (1.6%) (9.8%) -1 % -15 %

Consumer Confidence

US Consumer confid. Consumer confid. US Index M 30.sep.21 109.3 115.2 101.3 (5.9) 8.0 (5.1%) 7.9% -5 % 25 %

US ISM Non-Manuf. Expectation US Index M 31.aug.21 60.1 67.0 62.6 (6.9) (2.5) (10.3%) (4.0%) -5 % -1 %

Euro Consumer confid. Retail Euro Index M 30.sep.21 (4.0) (5.3) (13.6) 1.3 9.6 (24.5%) (70.6%) -17 % -68 %

Euro ZEW Index Exp. Business condition Euro Index M 30.sep.21 31.1 42.7 73.9 (11.6) (42.8) (27.2%) (58%) -42 % -32 %

Spain Consumer Conf. Consumer confid. Spain Index M 30.sep.21 (8.6) (8.5) (26.3) (0.1) 17.7 1.2% (67.3%) -18 % -66 %

UK GfK Consumer confid. Consumer confid. UK Index M 30.sep.21 (13.0) (8.0) (25.0) (5.0) 12.0 62.5% (48.0%) -65 %

Other Key Data

US Housing starts Housing market US 000 units M 31.aug.21 1 615 1 554 1 376 61 239 3.9% 17.4% 0 % 16 %

US Intermod. Cont. Carloads Carloads US 000 units W 25.sep.21 239.1 234.8 224.3 4 15 1.8% 6.6% -3 % 5 %

Port volumes

Hong Kong Port volumes HK 000 TEUs M 31.aug.21 1 508 1 566 1 573 (58) (65) (3.7%) (4.1%) -2 % -3 %

Shanghai Port volumes China 000 TEUs M 31.aug.21 4 320 3 700 3 840 620 480 16.8% 12.5% 6 % 7 %

Shenzhen Port volumes China 000 TEUs M 31.aug.21 2 540 2 380 2 620 160 (80) 6.7% (3.1%) -5 % -6 %

Shanghai Port volumes China 000 TEUs M 31.aug.21 4 320 3 700 3 840 620 480 16.8% 12.5% 6 % 7 %

Los Angeles imports Port volumes US TEUs M 31.aug.21 486 469 516 16 (31) 3.5% (5.9%) -6 % 6 %

Long Beach imports Port volumes US TEUs M 31.aug.21 407 383 365 24 43 6.4% 11.7% -6 % 10 %

New York imports Port volumes US TEUs M 30.jul.21 394 387 326 7 68 1.9% 20.8% 8 % 37 %

Fleet overview

Container Fleet in Service Fleet Global DWT mill W 02.okt.21 289.2 289.0 278.5 0.2 10.7 0.1% 3.8% 1 % 4 %

Container Orderbook % of Fleet Orderbook Global % of f leet W 02.okt.21 20.1% 20.0% 8.1% 0.2% 12.0% 20.0% 8.1% 21 % 114 %

Container Fleet avg. Speed Index Total f leet Global Index W 02.okt.21 9.0 9.0 8.8 (0.1) 0.1 (0.7%) 1.6% 0 % 0 %

Fleet at Anchor 5k TEU+ Global # vessels W 02.okt.21 220 236 134 (16) 86 (6.8%) 64.2% 12 % 58 %

Rate and costs

SCFI Box rate China Index W 25.sep.21 4 644 4 623 1 422 21 3 222 0.5% 226.6% 27 % 259 %

CCFI Box rate China Index W 25.sep.21 3 235 3 157 1 007 78 2 228 2.5% 221.1% 33 % 232 %

HK-LA (Drew ry) Box rate China USD/FEU W 02.okt.21 7 961 7 961 4 066 - 3 895 0.0% 95.8% 17 % 129 %

ConTex TC Index Charter rate Global Index W 25.sep.21 3 170 3 146 452 24 2 718 0.8% 601.3% 91 % 615 %

4250 TEU Charter rate Charter rate Global USD/day W 25.sep.21 92 690 92 160 15 582 530 77 108 0.6% 494.9% 70 % 567 %

CONTAINERAbsolute change % change 3m trend


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Orderbook to fleetFleet development (kTeu)

Container fleet by year builtContainer fleet by vessel size (sailing vessels)


0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020 2022E

'10

00

te

u

<3k teu 3-7,99k teu 8-11,99k teu 12k+ teu

19 %

30 %26 %

25 %

<3k teu

3-7,99k teu

8-11,99k teu

12k+ teu

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

70-75 76-80 81-85 86-90 91-95 96-00 01-05 06-10 11-15 16 17

¤ o

f ve

ss

els


0 %

10 %

20 %

30 %

40 %

50 %

60 %

70 %

0 %

2 %

4 %

6 %

8 %

10 %

12 %

14 %

16 %

18 %

20 %

jan. 05 jul. 07 jan. 10 jul. 12 jan. 15 jul. 17 jan. 20

Ord

er

bo

ok

to

fle

et

rati

o (

%)

y/y fleet growth OB/ fleet ratio


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Company data, Clarkson, Fearnley

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

¤ o

f to

tal

fleet

'1000 t

eu

<3k teu 3-7,99k teu 8-11,99k teu 12k+ teu % of fleet

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017 2020

% o

f fl

eet

'1000 t

eu

<3k teu 3-7,99k teu 8-11,99k teu 12k+ teu Total

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

Delivered 2021YTD

2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

'10

00

te

u


Container orderbook by vessel size Scrapping

Contracting



SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Gas Carriers (LNG/LPG)


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Gas Carriers

Gas coverage Ticker Target Upside / Sh. price Share Outstanding MCap. Liquidity Float


Aw ilco LNG ALNG NO 4.6 20 % 3.8 NOK 133 61 0.4 n/a -2.8 44.9 144.6 20.0

Flex LNG FLNG NO 150.0 -7 % 161.0 NOK 53 1 023 3.2 52 % -2.4 25.7 126.8 89.4

GasLog Partners GLOP US 4.0 -13 % 4.6 USD 48 218 1.8 69 % -1.7 9.0 69.5 -65.3

Golar LNG GLNG US 18.0 33 % 13.5 USD 98 1 324 13.6 85 % 1.5 20.4 40.5 -4.8

HMLP HMLPG US 20.0 268 % 5.4 USD 33 181 3.3 53 % 4.4 25.7 -55.8 -48.3

Teekay LNG TGP US 16.0 -7 % 17.1 USD 88 1 515 11.2 58 % -0.1 23.2 56.7 21.4

Dorian LPG LPG US 15.0 20 % 12.5 USD 48 597 4.3 86 % -2.3 -5.5 10.7 -12.9

Avance Gas AVANCE NO 50.0 26 % 39.6 NOK 77 360 2.4 28 % -7.8 -9.1 1.7 -10.6

BW LPG BWLPG NO 78.0 76 % 44.3 NOK 142 748 1.9 57 % -6.4 -4.4 -16.0 -21.5

Navigator Gas NVGS US 14.0 61 % 8.7 USD 56 486 0.5 12 % -0.3 -1.5 -20.8 -35.6

Average 48 % 651 55 % -1.8 12.9 35.8 -6.8


-8%

-7%

-5%

-4%

-2%

-2%

-1%

0%

0%

3%

4%

9%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10%

AVANCE

BWLPG

GASS

ALNG

FLNG

LPG

NVGS

GLNG

GLNG

EXM

MISC

HMLP


-13%

-9%

-3%

-2%

-1%

5%

5%

5%

15%

16%

19%

23%

-20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30%

ALNG

AVANCE

GASS

NVGS

BWLPG

TGP

LPG

MISC

FLNG

GLNG

HMLP

EXM


-56%

-21%

-16%

2%

9%

10%

11%

40%

57%

76%

127%

145%

-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200%

HMLP

NVGS

BWLPG

AVANCE

MISC

GASS

LPG

GLNG

TGP

EXM

FLNG

ALNG

TOTAL RETURNYTD


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Gas Carriers

GAS Rep. curncy MCap. EV Net liab. Capex NAV GAV


Aw ilco LNG USD 61 300 239 - 15 254 18 37 n/a -7 14 n/a 231 204 192 -0.05 0.11 n/a

Flex LNG USD 1 023 2 553 1 530 - 999 2 529 117 242 213 36 121 94 1 273 1 392 1 322 0.7 2.3 1.8

GasLog Partners USD 218 1 876 1 300 359 238 1 897 232 198 175 76 42 22 1 193 1 087 1 001 1.5 0.9 0.5

Golar LNG USD 1 324 2 875 1 551 - 1 739 3 290 270 240 228 -10 -76 -83 2 123 2 064 2 179 -0.1 -0.7 -0.8

HMLP USD 181 1 014 463 370 474 1 307 107 101 101 48 49 52 415 408 397 1.5 1.5 1.6

Teekay LNG USD 1 515 6 949 3 031 2 403 1 040 6 474 407 387 365 236 219 222 2 548 2 369 2 183 2.7 2.5 2.5

Dorian LPG USD 597 1 142 431 114 918 1 463 187 241 160 91 144 66 490 456 354 1.8 3.3 1.5

Avance Gas USD 360 1 075 273 442 522 1 237 95 128 110 31 72 57 341 362 460 0.5 1.0 0.7

BW LPG USD 748 1 441 693 - 1 437 2 130 404 370 315 215 188 135 956 878 702 1.5 1.3 1.0

Navigator Gas USD 486 1 367 839 42 767 1 648 148 174 181 35 75 85 742 612 472 0.6 1.4 1.5

Average 522 1 868 985 362 856 2 203 211 228 229 60 68 64 1 238 1 249 1 170 0.8 1.1 1.0


GAS

FS est vs. Consensus Currency 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e

Aw ilco LNG USD 18 37 23 18 41 30 3 % -9 % -25 % -0.05 0.11 0.01 -0.05 0.13 0.06 6 % -19 % -87 %

Flex LNG USD 117 242 213 117 248 258 0 % -2 % -18 % 0.67 2.26 1.76 0.59 2.29 2.44 14 % -1 % -28 %

GasLog Partners USD 232 198 175 231 222 219 1 % -11 % -20 % 1.55 0.88 0.47 1.29 1.36 1.35 20 % -35 % -65 %

Golar LNG USD 270 240 228 276 285 310 -2 % -16 % -26 % -0.10 -0.69 -0.75 -0.43 -0.22 0.27 77 % -221 % -378 %

HMLP USD 107 101 101 117 127 106 -9 % -20 % -5 % 1.45 1.47 1.56 1.51 1.23 1.28 -4 % 19 % 22 %

Teekay LNG USD 407 387 365 758 725 414 -46 % -47 % -12 % 2.74 2.47 2.51 2.45 2.42 2.64 12 % 2 % -5 %

Dorian LPG USD 187 241 160 187 137 nm 0 % 76 % n.a 1.75 3.28 1.54 1.71 1.04 nm 2 % n/a n/a

Avance Gas USD 95 128 110 94 100 111 1 % 28 % 0 % 0.48 1.03 0.73 0.44 0.49 0.54 9 % n/a 34 %

BW LPG USD 404 370 315 408 311 290 -1 % 19 % 9 % 1.51 1.33 0.95 1.46 0.81 0.71 4 % 64 % 34 %

Navigator Gas USD 148 174 181 121 159 221 22 % 10 % -18 % 0.63 1.36 1.53 -0.01 0.53 1.19 6369 % n/a 29 %

Median 195 198 183 210 159 220 0 % -9 % -18 % 0.73 1.03 0.95 0.70 0.81 0.95 7 % -10 % 8 %

EBITDA consensus EBITDA difference EPS FS estimates EPS consensusEBITDA FS estimates EPS Difference


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnley

Average TFDE spot rates Historical VLGC Rates


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

US

Dk/d

ay

160k cbm TFDE avg.

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

US

D/d

USD/d FY'15-21 avg. FY'10-21 avg.


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Fleet overview

Gas Carriers (LNG)

LNG Valuation

ALNG-NO FLNG-NO GLOP-US HMLP-US TGP-US

Share price (local) 3.8 161.0 4.6 5.4 17.1

Marketcap (fully diluted) 61 1 023 219 181 1 519

Net liabilities 224 1 530 1 646 794 5 406

EV 285 2 366 1 831 960 6 408

Fleet value (USDm) ALNG-NO FLNG-NO GLOP-US HMLP-US TGP-US

Fleet value 248 2541 1453 1129 2654

Time Charter adjustmeents 4 -15 3331

Total f leet value 252 2526 1453 1129 5985

MEGI/ XDF 170k 2541 996

DFDE 170k 594 362

DFDE 155k 248 623 302

Turbine 150k 237 255

FSRU, modern 1129

FSRU, conversion

Other assets/investments* 1 3 0 41 63

GAV 252 2529 1453 1170 6048

Net liabilities -224 -1530 -1646 -794 -5406

NAV 28 999 -193 375 642

NAV per share 1.8 157.3 -4.0 11.3 7.2

P/NAV 2.2x 1.0x -1.1x 0.5x 2.4x

EV/GAV 1.1x 0.9x 1.3x 0.8x 1.1x

LTV 91 % 60 % 89 % 70 % 85 %

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

ALNG-NO FLNG-NO GLOP-US HMLP-US TGP-US

# o

f u

nit

s

MEGI/ XDF 170k DFDE 170k DFDE 155k Turbine 150k FSRU modern FSRU conversion FLNG, conversion


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Company data, Fearnley, Bloomberg, EIA

Average spot ratesLNG spot seasonality (160k cbm TFDE)

Historical spot ratesPeriod rates (1 year TC)


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

US

Dk/d

ay

160k cbm TFDE avg.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Jan-18 Sep-18 May-19 Jan-20 Sep-20

US

Dk/d

ay

MEGI/XDF 160k cbm TFDE avg. 138-145k Turbin

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

jan. 05 jan. 07 jan. 09 jan. 11 jan. 13 jan. 15 jan. 17 jan. 19 jan. 21

US

Dk/d

ay

145k ST spot avg. 160k cbm TFDE avg. MEGI/XDF

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan Feb Mar April May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

US

Dk/d

Average '16-20 2020 2021


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Ton-miles vs. deliveries US LNG Loadings / export

Gas Carriers (LNG)

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr Mai Jun Jul Aug Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar

2020 2021

MT

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

2020 2021

Live vessels Ton miles


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


LNG age profileYearly LNG Deliveries/Orderbook/deletions

LNG deliveries (cbm)

Gas Carrier (LNG)

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

10 000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020E 2022E

cm

b

Historical deliveries NB deliveries

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

No

sh

ips

Deliveries Orders Deletions net

214, 33%

119, 18%

166, 25%

94, 14%

63, 10%

0-4y 5-9y 10-14y 15-20y +20y


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Company data, Fearnley, Bloomberg, EIA Note: LNG contract price is oil price x 11-14.5%

Gas Prices

Gas Carriers (LNG)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-17 Jun-17 Dec-17 May-18 Nov-18 Apr-19 Oct-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Feb-21 Aug-21

US

D/m

mb

tu

Gas Prices

LNG Contract HHUB NBP F.E. Delivered


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys

Loadings - 2021 vs 2020 Discharges - 2021 vs 2020

Gas Carriers LNG

-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

United States

Egypt

South Korea

Algeria

Oman

France

Netherlands

Brazil

Indonesia

Qatar

Angola

Russia

Trinidad

Norway

Nigeria

Belgium

Malaysia

MT

-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4

China

South Korea

Japan

Greece

India

Netherlands

Italy

France

UK

Turkey

Spain

Belgium

MT


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Rates continue to decline as FSRUs become commoditized

Gas Carriers LNG

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

US

Dk/d


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Peer valuation Owned fleet

Gas Carriers LPG

Capitalization (USDm)

AGAS-NO BWLPG-NO LPG-US NVGS-US

Share price (local) 39.6 44.3 12.5 8.7

Marketcap (fully diluted) 366 748 638 669

Net liabilities 687 693 481 1 010

EV 1 053 1 441 1 119 1 680

Fleet value (USDm) AGAS-NO BWLPG-NO LPG-US NVGS-US

Fleet value 1237 1992 1463 2086

Time Charter adjustmeents -1 21

Total f leet value 1237 1992 1462 2107

VLGC 1237 1992 1463

LGC

MGC 35k 350

Semi-ref 22k 1357

Semi-ref 15k

Semi-ref 12k 138

Ethylene 8k 65

Semi-ref 5k 21

Other assets/investments 2 138 -1 0

GAV 1239 2130 1461 2107

Net liabilities -687 -693 -481 -1010

NAV 552 1437 979 1097

NAV per share 60 85 19 14

NAV per USD 7.1 10.1 19.2 14.2

P/NAV 0.66x 0.52x 0.65x 0.61x

EV/GAV 0.85x 0.68x 0.77x 0.80x

LTV 65 % 47 % 42 % 52 %

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

AVANCE BWLPG LPG NVGS

# o

f ve

ss

els

VLGC LGC MGC 35k Semi-ref 22k Semi-ref 15k Semi-ref 12k Ethylene 8k


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys, Company data

VLGC – Weekly AG-EAST VLGC - Annual

Gas Carriers

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

US

D/d

USD/d FY'15-21 avg. FY'10-21 avg.0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52

US

D/d

2017 2018 2019 2020 2021


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources:Fearnleys, Bloomberg, EIA, Various company data, IHS Waterborne

Global LPG & VLGC volumesLPG trade by vessel type

US export capacityUS propane production

Cas Carriers LPG

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

MT

PA

Enterprise Targa Nederland P66

Marcus Hook Others Projected Exports

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

% g

row

th

Mt

Global Volumes (lhs) VLGC volumes (lhs) y/y growth (rhs)

3.8 4.3 2.7 3.0 4.7 5.5 5.44.1 5.4 5.2 5.8 4.7 5.5 4.38.3 9.4 8.1 6.4 5.6 6.5 5.4

8.39.4 10.8 12.0 13.0

15.3 16.1

50.356.1 63.0 64.4 67.0

76.3 74.9

63%

64%

65%

66%

67%

68%

69%

70%

71%

72%

73%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

VL

GC

Sh

are

MT

VLGC Midsize Handysize LGC Small-Size VLGC share (rhs)

1 400

1 500

1 600

1 700

1 800

1 900

2 000

2 100

2 200

2 300

2 400

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mb

/d

Min 13-18 range 5-year avg. 2019 2020 2021


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


EIA Revisions - Propane (Natgas wells)Frac spread vs 9month lagged LPG production growth

US Propane exportUS Propane production

Gas Carrier LPG

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-16 Jun-18 Jun-20

US

Pro

pa

ne P

rod

uc

tio

n, y/y

(3

m)

Fra

c S

pre

ad

, U

SD

/mm

btu

Frac Sprad US Propane Production

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

2 200

2 400

2 600

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mb

/d


200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

mb

/d


1

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

jan.15 jul.15 jan.16 jul.16 jan.17 jul.17 jan.18 jul.18 jan.19 jul.19 jan.20 jul.20 jan.21

m b

/d

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


US-Far East C3 spread - US spot vs 1 & 2m fwd FEI US propane inventories All PADD's

US-Asia arbitrage

Gas Carriers LPG

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

mai. 19 aug. 19 nov. 19 feb. 20 mai. 20 aug. 20 nov. 20 feb. 21 mai. 21 aug. 21

US

D/m

t

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

160 000

180 000

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51

'000 B

arr

els

5-year avg. (LHS) 2020 Inventory (LH) 2021 Inventory (LH)

2020 MB Propane (RH) 2021 MB Propane (RH)

C/g

allo

ng

C/g

allo

ng

604

691572

31 84

-3

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

US Spot Terminal US FOB Freight (BLPGequivalent)

Trader P/L Asia 2m fwd

US

D/m

t


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys, IHS Waterborne, Argus, ICIS, Platts, S&P Global Note: Each 1 MT of propylene requries 1.1-1.2 MT of propane feedstock

US exports by destinationFar East importers

China PDH PlantsSouth/Northeast Asia LPG Demand

Gas Carriers LPG

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD

MT

Australia China Far East India Japan South Korea Southeast Taiwan

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

1

2

3

4

5

2015 Jul 2016 Jul 2017 Jul 2018 Jul 2019 Jul 2020 Jul 2021

MT

Far East Europe Latam/Caribs Other % Far East

53%

28%

19%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

MT

Residential Chemical Other

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

MT

pro

pyle

ne c

ap

acit

yReport produced for Korea (Fearnleys Asia)

SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys, IHS Waterborne

Global VLGC VolumesGlobal LPG Volumes

Shipping intensity by tradelane - VLGC equivalents required to lift 1MTPAMiddle East seaborne LPG exports

Gas Carriers LPG

14%

6%

3% 3%

-2%

6%7%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e

MT

United States Middle East SE Asia

Med LATAM Africa

12%13%

2%

6%

12%

0%

6%

8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e

MT

United States Middle East SE Asia

Med LATAM West Africa

8 7 710 8 8 8 8

2

8 9 10

1010 10 10 10

3

4 45

55 5 5 4

1

11 1110

1010

11 1110

3

1 44

44

5 5

3

1

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 YTD

MT

Saudi Arabia UAE Kuwait Qatar Iran Bahrain

5.5

3.7

2.32.6

3.1

0.0x

2.0x

4.0x

6.0x

8.0x

10.0x

12.0x

0.0x

1.0x

2.0x

3.0x

4.0x

5.0x

6.0x

US GoM - China(Suez)

US GoM - Chiba(Panama)

US GoM - ARA MEG - Chiba Balboa - Busan

Shipping intensity (LH) Roundtrips per year (RH)

Sh

ipp

ing

in

ten

sit

y

Ro

un

dtrip

s p

er y

ear


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys

Orderbook to fleet Deliveries by year

VLGC fleet age profile

Gas Carriers LPG

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

feb-2012 feb-2013 feb-2014 feb-2015 feb-2016 feb-2017 feb-2018 feb-2019 feb-2020 feb-2021

56

12 12

19

14

5 5

3

8

6

4

6

0 0

43

7

5

2

10

54

3 32

3

8

54

3

5

7

10

7

9

4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q 1q 3q

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Delivered OB

0-5y38%

6-10y20%

10-15y21%

16-20y8%

21-25y10%

26y+9%


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Sources: Fearnleys, Company data

Contracting Contracting last 24 months

Gas Carriers

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

k m

3

VLGC LGC MGC SGC

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

mar. 19 jul. 19 nov. 19 mar. 20 jul. 20 nov. 20 mar. 21

k m

3

VLGC LGC MGC SGC



Gas Carriers LNG/LPG



LNG import & export

Japan LNG Imports LNG Import Japan m tonnes M 30.jul.21 6.2 5.7 6.0 0.5 0.2 8.5% 2.5% -16 % 6 %

China LNG Import LNG Import China m tonnes M 31.aug.21 6.7 5.7 6.0 1.0 0.7 17.3% 11.7% -2 % 13 %

LNG prices

Japan LNG Price (spot+contract) Commodity Japan USD/MMBtu M 30.jul.21 9.7 9.1 7.3 0.6 2.4 6.9% 33.2% 11 % 8 %

US Henry Hub Commodity US USD/MMBtu W 02.okt.21 5.6 5.0 1.4 0.6 4.2 11.1% 299.3% 45 % 134 %

Fleet overview

LNG Fleet in Service Fleet Global DWT mill W 02.okt.21 49.7 49.7 45.5 (0.0) 4.2 (0.0%) 9.2% 3 % 9 %

LNG Orderbook % of Fleet Orderbook Global % of f leet W 02.okt.21 24.2% 24.2% 26.0% 0.0% -1.8% 24.2% 26.0% 5 % -1 %

LNG Fleet avg. Speed Index Speed Global Index W 02.okt.21 12.0 11.5 11.5 0.5 0.5 3.9% 4.2% 0 % 3 %

Other data

Shipping Cost Qatar-Japan Rates Global USD/Mmbtu M 00.jan.00 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.3 14.8% 38.4% 17 % 47 %

LNG M ARKETAbsolute change % change 3m trend



LPG import & export

US LPG Exports Exports US 000 mt M 31.aug.21 93.1 106.0 87.4 (12.9) 5.7 (12.2%) 6.5% 21 % 1 %

Japan LPG Imports Imports Japan 000 mt M 31.aug.21 802.2 766.9 775.0 35.3 27.1 4.6% 3.5% -11 % 7 %

Korea LPG Imports Imports Korea 000 bbls M 30.apr.20 675.8 774.8 618.9 (99.0) 56.9 (12.8%) 9.2% -20 % 30 %

China LPG Imports Imports China mt M 31.aug.21 2 127.2 2 053.3 1 916.9 73.9 210.3 3.6% 11.0% 10 % 28 %

US propane inventory MMbbls Index US MMbbls W 02.okt.21 67 892 67 892 96 262 - (28 370) 0.0% (29.5%) 36 % -27 %

Commodity prices

Japan Naphta Price (CIF) Commodity Japan USD/mt W 02.okt.21 716.3 713.9 380.5 2.4 335.8 0.3% 88.2% 8 % 71 %

US Propane Prices (FOB) Commodity US, Mt. Belvieu USD/mt W 02.okt.21 775.5 695.3 252.6 80.2 522.9 11.5% 207.0% 30 % 140 %

Arab Gulf Propane Prices (FOB) Commodity AG USD/mt M 30.sep.21 665.0 660.0 365.0 5.0 300.0 0.8% 82.2% 23 % 78 %

Fleet overview

LPG Fleet in Service Fleet Global DWT mill W 02.okt.21 25.8 25.8 25.1 - 0.8 0.0% 3.0% 1 % 3 %

LPG Orderbook % of Fleet Orderbook Global % of f leet W 02.okt.21 22.5% 22.5% 13.3% 0.0% 9.2% 22.5% 13.3% 19 % 75 %

LPG Fleet avg. Speed Index Speed Global Index W 02.okt.21 8.7 8.9 8.8 (0.2) (0.1) (1.9%) (1.0%) 0 % 0 %

LPG M ARKETAbsolute change % change 3m trend


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42



SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


INDUSTRIAL/OTHER Ticker Target Upside / Sh. price Share Outstanding MCap. Liquidity Float


Odfjell ODF NO 30.5 NOK 84 306 0.03 31 % 6.3 10.9 11.3 15.1

Stolt-Nielsen SNI NO 148.0 14 % 129.4 NOK 64 986 0.26 37 % -5.0 19.4 19.5 17.3

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WWL NO 40.0 10 % 36.4 NOK 423 1 832 1.35 100 % 9.1 5.7 56.9 66.8

Ocean Yield OCY-NO 45.0 10 % 41.0 NOK 175 854 3.37 35 % 0.0 29.9 59.7 -5.0

Ship Finance SFL US 16.0 95 % 8.2 USD 108 882 8.13 80 % -1.7 4.0 37.7 -33.6

Average 32 % 972 57 % 1.7 14.0 37.0 12.1


17%

5%

5%

0%

0%

-6%

-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

WAWI

WWI

ODF

OCY

SFL

SNI


16%

7%

2%

1%

0%

-2%

-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Ticker

SNI

ODF

WAWI

SFL

OCY


60%

57%

38%

20%

11%

9%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

OCY

WAWI

SFL

SNI

ODF

WWI

TOTAL RETURNYTD


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42



INDUSTRIAL/OTHER Sh. price Share MCap. NAV/share P/NAV EV/GAV

Overview pricing Ticker (lcl) (curncy.) (USDm) (lcl) (1/5) (2/6) 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e 2020 2021e 2022e

Odfjell ODF NO 30.5 NOK 306 32.3 1.0 1.0 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE

Stolt-Nielsen SNI NO 129.4 NOK 986 156.8 1.5 1.1 6x 5x FALSE 6x 7x FALSE 0.6x 0.6x FALSE 6 % 6 % FALSE

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA WWL NO 36.4 NOK 1832 47.2 0.6 0.8 9x 8x 5x 8x 32x 7x 0.5x 0.7x 0.7x 0 % 0 % 0 %

Ocean Yield OCY-NO 41.0 NOK 854 17.9 1.7 1.1 10x 10x 9x 12x 10x 10x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x 4 % 4 % 4 %

Ship Finance SFL US 8.2 USD 882 11.7 0.7 0.9 10x 11x 13x 9x 9x 19x 1.0x 1.0x 1.0x 12 % 12 % 12 %


Dividend yieldEV/EBITDA adj. P/E adj. P/B

INDUSTRIAL/OTHER Rep. curncy MCap. EV Net liab. Capex NAV GAV


Odfjell USD 306 1 649 1 258 85 301 1 644 FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE FALSE n/a

Stolt-Nielsen USD 986 3 371 2 384 - 647 3 031 554 511 FALSE 172 133 FALSE 2 026 1 733 FALSE 2.7 2.1 FALSE

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA USD 1 832 5 267 3 435 - 3 086 6 521 - - - - - - - - - - - -

Ocean Yield USD 854 2 849 1 995 - 499 2 494 232 229 223 74 84 84 1 605 1 445 1 280 0.4 0.5 0.5

Ship Finance USD 882 4 022 3 140 - 1 256 4 396 304 287 235 99 95 46 2 349 2 217 2 260 0.9 0.9 0.4

Average 696 2 436 1 648 92 1 386 3 126 277 255 - 86 66 - 1 013 866 - 1.3 1.0 -



SHIPPING WEEKLY 42





M acro Indicators

US I.P. Chemical Products Index US Index M 31.aug.21 103.3 102.7 97.5 0.6 5.8 0.6% 5.9% 1 % 7 %

US C.B. Leading Indicator Leading indicator US Index M 31.aug.21 117.1 116.0 106.5 1.1 10.6 0.9% 10.0% 3 % 11 %

USA ISM Manufacturing PMI PMI US Index M 30.sep.21 61.1 59.9 55.7 1.2 5.4 2.0% 9.7% -1 % 9 %

US Housing starts Housing market US 000 units M 31.aug.21 1 615.0 1 554.0 1 376.0 61.0 239.0 3.9% 17.4% 0 % 16 %

US Shipments & Inventory

US Chem ex-Pharma Shipments Shipments US USDm M 30.jul.21 44.6 44.1 39.6 0.6 5.0 1.3% 12.6% 4 % 14 %

US Chem ex-Pharma Inventory Shipments US USDm M 30.jul.21 54.7 54.3 50.9 0.4 3.8 0.8% 7.6% 3 % 6 %

US Shipments to Inventory Shipments US Ratio M 30.jul.21 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.5% 4.7% 1 % 7 %

Chemical Imports/Exports

US Chemical Imports Imports US USDm M 30.jul.21 6.5 6.6 5.1 (0.1) 1.3 (2.0%) 26% 11 % 23 %

US Chemical Exports Imports US USDm M 30.jul.21 8 188.0 7 649.0 5 644.0 539.0 2 544.0 7.0% 45.1% 9 % 38 %

Japan Chemical Imports Exports Japan JPYm M 31.aug.21 7 094.8 6 530.6 4 267.5 564.2 2 827.3 8.6% 66.3% 3 % 29 %

Japan Chemical Exports Exports Japan JPYm M 31.aug.21 7 355.4 7 621.5 5 833.0 (266.1) 1 522.4 (3.5%) 26.1% -2 % 31 %

China Chem. Organic Imports Imports China mill mt M 31.aug.21 2.4 2.1 2.7 0.4 (0.2) 16.9% (9.0%) -2 % -22 %

China Chem. Veg Oil Imports Imports China mill mt M 31.aug.21 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.1 (0.0) 13.5% (3.7%) 33 % -3 %

Fleet overview

Chem. Fleet avg. Speed Index Speed Global Index W 02.okt.21 7.0 7.0 7.0 (0.0) 0.0 (0.1%) 0.6% -1 % -2 %

Other data

US Chemical Carloads Demand US Carloads W 25.sep.21 32 033 30 998 30 093 1 035 1 940 3 % 6 % -4 % 5 %

CHEM ICAL TANKER M ARKETAbsolute change % change 3m trend


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Shipping Markets



Economic growth

World GDP % YoY GDP Global % YoY Q 30.sep.21 4.9% 6.0% 2.8% -1.1% 2.1% 6.0% 2.8% -18 % -18 %

US GDP Real GDP US % YoY Q 30.jun.21 12.2% 0.5% -9.1% 11.7% 21.3% 0.5% (9.1%) 2340 % N/A

China GDP Real GDP China % YoY Q 30.jun.21 7.9% 18.3% 3.2% -10.4% 4.7% 18.3% 3.2% -57 % 147 %

Japan GDP Real GDP Japan % YoY Q 30.jun.21 7.6% -1.3% -10.1% 8.9% 17.7% (1.3%) (10.1%) N/A N/A

Germany GDP Real GDP Germany % YoY Q 30.jun.21 9.4% -3.1% -11.3% 12.5% 20.7% (3.1%) (11.3%) N/A N/A

Eurozone GDP Real GDP Eurozone % YoY Q 30.jun.21 14.3% -1.2% -14.5% 15.5% 28.8% (1.2%) (14.5%) N/A N/A

Industrial Production

US I.P. Ind. Prod. US % YoY M 31.aug.21 6.0% 6.6% -6.6% -0.7% 12.6% 6.6% (6.6%) -37 % N/A

Chinese I.P. Ind. Prod. China % YoY M 31.aug.21 5.3% 6.4% 5.6% -1.1% -0.3% 6.4% 5.6% -39 % 32 %

Japan I.P. Ind. Prod. Japan % YoY, sa. M 31.aug.21 7.6% 13.3% -12.1% -5.7% 19.7% 13.3% (12.1%) 16 % N/A

German I.P. Ind. Prod. Germany % YoY M 30.jul.21 5.7% 5.4% -9.5% 0.3% 15.2% 5.4% (9.5%) 6 % N/A

PM I

Global PMI PMI Global Index M 31.aug.21 52.6 55.8 52.5 (3.2) 0.1 (5.7%) 0.2% -3 % 9 %

USA ISM Manufacturing PMI PMI US Index M 30.sep.21 61.1 59.9 55.7 1.2 5.4 2.0% 9.7% -1 % 9 %

China Manufacturing PMI PMI China Index, sa M 30.sep.21 49.6 50.1 51.5 (0.5) (1.9) (1.0%) (3.7%) -2 % -2 %

Japan Manufacturing PMI Expectation Japan Index M 30.sep.21 51.5 52.7 47.7 (1.2) 3.8 (2.3%) 8.0% -1 % 12 %

German Manuf. PMI PMI Germany Index M 30.sep.21 58.4 62.6 56.4 (4.2) 2.0 (6.7%) 3.5% -4 % 17 %

Other Expectation Indexes

OCED Leading Indicator Leading Indicator Global Index M 31.aug.21 101.0 100.9 98.0 0.08 2.94 0.1% 3.0% 1 % 4 %

US C.B. Leading Indicator Leading indicator US Index M 31.aug.21 117.1 116.0 106.5 1.10 10.60 0.9% 10.0% 3 % 11 %

US ISM Non-Manuf. Expectation US Index M 31.aug.21 60.1 67.0 62.6 (6.90) (2.50) (10.3%) (4.0%) -5 % -1 %

Euro ZEW Index Exp. Business condition Euro Index M 30.sep.21 31.1 42.7 73.9 (11.60) (42.80) (27.2%) (58%) -42 % -32 %

Chinese Consumer confid. Expectation China Index M 31.aug.21 117.5 117.8 116.4 (0.3) 1.1 (0.3%) 0.9% -2 % 3 %

Workforce

US Continuing Jobless Claims Labor market US 000 M 31.aug.21 2 852 2 899 13 528 (47) (10 676) (1.6%) (78.9%) -16 % -80 %

US Employees on Non-Farm payrolls Labor market US Δ '000 MoM M 31.aug.21 235.0 1 053.0 1 583.0 (818.0) (1 348.0) (77.7%) (85.2%) 35 % -72 %

US Unemployment rate Labor market US % M 31.aug.21 5.2% 5.4% 8.4% -0.2% -3 % 5.4% 8.4% -8 % -44 %

Euro unemployment Labor market Euro % M 31.aug.21 7.5% 7.6% 8.6% -0.1% -1 % 7.6% 8.6% -6 % -8 %

Exports

US Exports USDm Exports US USDbn M 30.jul.21 213 210 171 3 42 1.3% 24.5% 5 % 33 %

Euro Export Exports Euro EURbn M 30.jul.21 206 210 185 (3.81) 21.06 (1.8%) 11.4% 1 % 22 %

German Exports Exports Germany EURbn M 30.jul.21 115 119 102 (3.60) 12.80 (3.0%) 12.5% -1 % 23 %

Chinese Exports Exports China USDbn M 31.aug.21 294 283 234 11.65 59.94 4.1% 25.6% 12 % 25 %

Imports

US Imports USDbn Imports US USDbn M 30.jul.21 283 283 232 (0) 51 (0.2%) 22.1% 4 % 31 %

Euro Imports Imports Euro EURbn M 30.jul.21 185 192 158 (7) 27 (3.5%) 17.1% 3 % 26 %

Chinese Imports Imports China USDbn M 31.aug.21 236 226 177 10 59 4.3% 33.1% 3 % 33 %

Housing market

S&P/Case-Shiller Composite Housing prices US Index M 30.jul.21 272.3 268.4 227.1 4.0 45.3 1.5% 19.9% 6 % 19 %

US Housing starts Housing market US 000 units M 31.aug.21 1 615 1 554 1 376 61 239 3.9% 17.4% 0 % 16 %

US Existing home sales Housing US 000 units M 31.aug.21 5 880 6 000 5 970 (120) (90) (2.0%) (1.5%) 1 % 7 %

US New home sales Housing US 000 units M 31.aug.21 740 729 977 11 (237) 1.5% (24.3%) -10 % -23 %

Comm. R.E. f loorspace sold Housing market China % YoY M 31.aug.21 15.9% 21.5% -3.3% -5.6% 19.2% 21.5% (3.3%) -56 % N/A

Resid. R.E. f loorsp. sold Housing market China % YoY M 31.aug.21 1.7% 2.3% -0.3% -0.6% 1.9% 2.3% (0.3%) -57 % N/A

Comm. R.E. f loorsp. under constr. Housing market China % YoY M 31.aug.21 8.4% 9.0% 3.3% -0.6% 5.1% 9.0% 3.3% -13 % 210 %

Residental R.E. f loorsp. under constr. Housing market China % YoY M 31.aug.21 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% -0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 0.4% -13 % 135 %

M ACRO INDICATORSAbsolute change % change 3m trend


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Shipping - Market Caps > USD 1bn Shipping Market Caps below USD 1bn

Shipping Markets

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

Tankers Dry Bulk Liner Industrial/Other Gas

-

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

Tankers Dry Bulk Liner Industrial/Other Gas


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

Disclaimers


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42

DISCLOSURES AND DISCLAIMERS FOR RECOMMENDATIONS (EQUITY AND FIXED INCOME)

3. Fixed Income Recommendations

Basis and Methods for Assessment

Recommendations for bonds and other fixed income instruments are based on assessment of credit risk (the creditworthiness of a particular Recommendation Subject or instrument as of a given date) relative to risk premium (risk premium inherent in yield relative to investment amount).

Fearnley Securities AS mainly analyses fixed income instruments in the high yield segment where the credit risk is regarded as high. This includes rated instruments with ratings below BBB (S&P) or Baa3 (Moody’s) (below “investment grade”) where Fearnley Securities AS will quote the ratings to the extent these are known to Fearnley Securities AS.

Definitions of Key Terms

Buy: The risk premium is considered as favorable relative to credit risk

Hold: The risk premium is considered as acceptable relative to credit risk (Prior to April 11, 2016, defined as Accumulate)

Sell: The risk premium is considered as not acceptable relative to risk (Prior to April 11, 2016, defined as Reduce)

Unless otherwise stated, fixed income Recommendations are valid until maturity of the bonds.

4. General Disclosures – All Recommendations

No Agreement with Recommendation Subjects Concerning Recommendations

Fearnley has no agreements with Recommendation Subjects with respect to dissemination of Recommendations. Draft Recommendations (other than “pre-deal research reports” in jurisdictions where pre-deal research is permitted) are not provided to, nor reviewed by, the Recommendation Subject in advance of publication. However, in certain circumstances, research analysts may submit factual portions of a draft Recommendation to the Recommendation Subject for fact-checking purposes.

Organization and Duty of Confidentiality

All employees of Fearnley are subject to duty of confidentiality towards clients and with respect to handling inside information. Fearnley has established “Chinese walls” and other organizational procedures to minimize conflicts of interest within Fearnley and between clients.

Compensation Schemes for Analysts

No part of analysts’ salaries or compensations relates directly to investment banking services or other services provided by Fearnley to Recommendation Subjects. All analysts in Fearnley Securities AS are, however, part of the general bonus scheme related to the total earnings of Fearnley Securities AS.

Updating of Recommendations

Fearnley Securities AS has no fixed schedule for updating Recommendations unless stated or implied in the Recommendation.


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


5. General Disclaimer of Liability

Recommendations are distributed by Fearnley Securities AS as a free informational service to clients, and do not constitute any form of investment advice, whether as defined in the Norwegian Securities Trading Act Section 2-4 (1) or otherwise.

Opinions expressed in each Recommendation reflect the author’s judgment at the original time of publication, without regard to the date on which you may receive such information, and are subject to change without notice. All such opinions should be independently confirmed by any recipient of a Recommendation prior to making any investment decision. Recommendations may be unsuitable for certain investors depending on their specific investment objectives, risk tolerance and financial position. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is provided in relation to future performance.

Information in the Recommendations has, unless otherwise stated, been obtained from public sources believed to be reliable, but no Fearnley party makes any representation, whether express or implied, with respect to its completeness or accuracy, or for the fitness of the information for any purposes, and it may not be relied upon as such. Fearnley accepts no responsibility for, and expressly disclaims any and all liabilities for, any and all losses, direct or indirect, or any other kind of damage resulting from reliance upon or use of a Recommendation or information contained therein. Any person receiving a Recommendation is deemed to have accepted this disclaimer and that the disclaimer shall apply even if a Recommendation is shown to be erroneous, incomplete or based upon incorrect or incomplete facts, interpretations or assessments or assumptions, irrespective of any responsibility of Fearnley.

Recommendations are provided for informational purposes only and do not constitute a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell any securities. In jurisdictions where Fearnley Securities AS is not registered or licensed to trade in securities, commodities or other financial products, transactions may be executed only in accordance with applicable law and legislation, which may vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction and which may require that a transaction be made in accordance with applicable exemptions from registration or licensing requirements.

6. Confidentiality – No Redistribution or Reproduction

Recommendations are confidential, and may not be distributed or reproduced, in whole or in part, without the prior written consent of Fearnley Securities AS. Recommendations are intended for professional investors only and may not be passed on to any legal or physical person and/or institutions without the prior written consent of Fearnley Securities AS.

7. Additional Information for U.S. Persons

This Recommendation is being furnished to U.S. recipients in reliance on Rule 15a-6 ("Rule 15a-6") under the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. The information contained in this Recommendation is intended solely for certain major U.S. institutional investor" (as such term is defined in Rule 15a-6, an “MII”) and may not be used or relied upon by any other person for any purpose. Each U.S. recipient of this Recommendation represents and agrees, by virtue of its acceptance thereof, that it is a MII and that it understands the risks involved in executing transactions in such securities. Any U.S. recipient of this Recommendation that wishes to discuss or receive additional information regarding any security or Recommendation Subject mentioned herein, or engage in any transaction to purchase or sell or solicit or offer the purchase or sale of such securities, should contact a registered representative of Fearnley Securities, Inc., a U.S. broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a Member of FINRA, located at 880 Third Avenue, 16th Floor, New York, NY 10022. Any transaction by a U.S. person (other than a registered U.S. broker-dealer or bank acting in a broker-dealer capacity) must be effected with or through Fearnley Securities, Inc., which may be contacted via telephone at +1 (212) 277-3600.

This Recommendation was prepared by the analyst named on the cover of this Recommendation, who is a non-U.S. research analyst of Fearnley Securities AS and, as such, may not be subject to all requirements applicable to U.S.-based analysts.

All of the views expressed in this Recommendation accurately reflect the research analyst’s personal view about all of the subject securities or Recommendation Subjects and no part of such analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be related to the specif ic recommendation or view contained in this Recommendation.

To the extent this Recommendation relates to non-U.S. securities, note that investing in non-U.S. securities may entail particular risks. Such securities may not be registered under the Securities Act, and the issuer of such securities may not be subject to U.S. reporting and/or other requirements. Financial statements included in a Recommendation with respect to such securities, if any, may have been prepared in accordance with non-U.S. accounting standards that may not be comparable to the financial statements of U.S. companies. Available information regarding the issuers of such securities may be limited, and such issuers may not be subject to the same auditing and reporting standards as U.S. issuers. Fluctuations in the values of national currencies, as well as the potential for governmental restrictions on currency movements, can significantly erode principal and investment returns. Market rules, conventions and practices may differ from U.S. markets, adding to transaction costs or causing delays in the purchase or sale of such securities. Securities of some non-U.S. companies may not be as liquid as securities of comparable U.S. companies.


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


The information contained herein may include forward-looking statements within the meaning of U.S. federal securities laws that are subject to risks and uncertainties. Factors that could cause a company’s actual results and financial condition to differ from expectations include, without limitation: political uncertainty, changes in general economic conditions that adversely affect the level of demand for the company’s products or services, changes in foreign exchange markets, changes in international and domestic financial markets and in the competitive environment, and other factors relating to the foregoing. All forward-looking statements contained in this Recommendation are qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement.

No Fearnley party accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss of any kind arising out of the use or reliance on the information given. Recommendations do not take into account the specific investment objectives and financial situation of any recipient, nor do they provide individually tailored investment advice or offer tax, regulatory, accounting or legal advice. Prior to entering into any proposed transaction, recipients should determine, in consultation with their own investment, legal, tax, regulatory and accounting advisors, the economic risks and merits, as well as the legal, tax, regulatory and accounting characteristics and consequences, of the transaction. Investors seeking to buy or sell any financial instruments discussed or recommended in a Recommendation, should seek independent financial advice relating thereto.

The products discussed in Recommendations are not FDIC insured, may lose value and are not guaranteed by any Fearnley party.

8. Conflicts of Interests

Fearnley Securities AS and certain other Fearnley affiliated entities regularly seek investment banking mandates, and may at any time perform investment banking or other services or solicit investment banking or other mandates from companies covered in Recommendations. Fearnley Securities AS and other Fearnley affiliated parties or related persons may (i) hold positions in securities covered in Recommendations, including taking long or short positions and/or buying or selling such securities, (ii) act as investment bankers for issuers of such securities, (iii) act as market makers for such securities, (iv) serve on the board of any issuer of such securities, or (v) act as paid consultant or advisor to any issuer. In order to avoid any conflict of interests Fearnley Securities AS and its employees will adhere to internal regulations, recommendations from the Norwegian Securities Dealers Association and relevant legislation and regulations from the Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway. Internal holdings will be specified as part of Disclosure of Position.

9. Previous Recommendations

Please contact [email protected] to receive additional information about Recommendations in the financial instruments of the issuing company the last 36 months, including data on changes in Recommendations. Please be aware that certain informal Recommendations may be excluded.



SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


10. Previous Reports

11. Disclosure of Positions

The following table presents holdings in financial instruments under the Norwegian Securities Trading Regulations section 3-10 (2) and section 3-11 (1), as well as Section 13(d) of the U.S. Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Fearnley Securities AS - consolidated with related companies and associated persons – has the following holdings of (a) equities of the Recommendation Subject that exceed 1% of the total share capital of the Recommendation Subject and (b) bonds of the Recommendation Subject in a nominal amount that exceeds 1% of the total outstanding bonds of such Recommendation Subject. The aggregate of all Fearnley analyst holdings are disclosed)

Analyst’s holding Others

Company Name Equities Bonds Equities Bonds Last updated

Seadrill LTD 350 - - - 31.05.2021

Valaris PLC 625 - - - 31.05.2021

Fusion Fuel Green Plc (Including 3.900 Warrants) 400 - - - 31.05.2021


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


12. Disclosure of Assignments and Mandates

The following list presents information regarding any:

(i) participation by any Fearnley party as manager or co-manager of a public offering relating to a Recommendation Subject in the preceding twelve months;

(ii) receipt of compensation by a Fearnley party for investment banking services from a Recommendation Subject in the preceding twelve months;

(iii) expectation that a Fearnley party will receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from the Recommendation Subject in the following three months; and

(iv) receipt of compensation by a Fearnley party for products or services other than investment banking services in the preceding twelve months, as well as identification of all categories of services offered (investment banking, non-investment banking securities-related, or non-securities services).

Last updated: 30 June 2021

• Africa Energy Corp• Avance Gas Holdings Ltd• Bergen Carbon Solutions AS• Borr Drilling Ltd• Danaos Corporation• Eagle Bulk Shipping Inc• Fusion Fuel Green Plc• Global Ship Lease, Inc• Golden Ocean Group ASA• Hav Group ASA• Horisont Energi AS• HydrogenPro AS• Höegh LNG Holdings Ltd• Integrated Wind Solutions AS• Kyoto Group AS• Magnora ASA• MPC Energy Solutions N.V• M Vest Water AS• Norsk Solar AS• Ocean Sun AS• OHT ASA• Seabird Exploration Plc• Seaspan Corporation• Teco 2030 ASA• The Metals Company Inc

12. Statistics

The following table presents information pursuant to Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2016/958, including quarterly statistics regarding the ratio of Recommendation categories issued by Fearnley Securities AS, as well as the corresponding ratio of Recommendation categories issued with respect to Recommendation Subjects for which Fearnley Securities AS provided investment banking services during the preceding twelve months.

Last updated 4 May 2021


SHIPPING WEEKLY 42


Issued by Fearnley Securities on July 8, 2019

1. Introduction

This document provides additional disclosures and disclaimers relevant to research reports and other investment recommendations (“Recommendations”) issued by Fearnley Securities AS, a wholly owned subsidiary of Astrup Fearnley AS (together with its affiliates and related parties, “Fearnley”), cf. the Securities Trading Act Section 2-10 with further regulations.

Fearnley Securities AS complies with the standards for Recommendations issued by The Norwegian Securities Dealers Association and the Norwegian Society of Financial Analysts. Fearnley Securities AS is registered in the Norwegian registry of business enterprises under registration no. 945 757 647 and is licensed and supervised by The Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway.

Matters relating to Recommendations shall be governed by the laws of Norway and be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of Norwegian courts. The terms of use and disclaimers set forth herein are - by reference in the Recommendation – deemed to be acknowledged and accepted by any person receiving the Recommendation.

2. Equity Recommendations

Basis and Methods for Assessment

Recommendations regarding shares and share related instruments (“Equities”) are based on price targets fixed with different valuation methods that may include analysis of earnings multiples (absolute and relative), valuation of a company using DCF (discounted cash flow) calculations and by carrying out net asset value (NAV) assessments. Price targets are changed when earnings and cash flow forecasts are changed. They may also be changed when the underlying value of the assets of the issuer that is the subject of the Recommendation (the “Recommendation Subject”) changes or when factors impacting the required rate of return change. Unless otherwise stated, our recommendations have a twelve-month horizon.

Definitions of Key Terms Equity recommendations prior to 8 July 2019

Buy: When price target is more than 15 % above market price. Buy: When price target is more than 15 % above market price.

Hold: When target price is between -15%- +15% and/or if we do not see a Accumulate: When target price is within 5-15 % above market price.

compelling investment case in the share Reduce: When target price is +5 % to -15 % below market price.

Sell: When target price is 15 % or more below market price. Sell: When target price is 15 % or more below market price.

Risks

There is an element of risk attached to all investments in financial instruments. There may be uncertainties with respect to the accurateness and reliability of any information, interpretation and assessment. There are uncertainties and risks attached to the correctness of any Recommendation and with respect to forward looking statements and expectations.

High risk: beta above 1.2

Medium risk: beta range 1.0 – 1.2

Low risk: beta at or less than 1.0

Fearnley Securities AS assesses risk in Recommendations relative to the Oslo Børs Benchmark index (OSEBX). Fearnley Securities AS applies the beta as main risk assessment criterion to its Recommendations. The risk assessment is in addition based on a consideration of the individual company’s business and financial risk profile.

Note that equity coverage of Fearnley Securities AS encompasses solely companies within the following sectors: Shipping, Oil services, Seafood, Renewables and Oil E&P. These sectors are cyclical by nature and will over time presumably have a higher volatility than the overall market. Fearnley Securities AS utilizes the Oslo Stock Exchange as a benchmark in its risk assessment given the high concentration of sector participants on that exchange.


New York | 880 3rd Ave, 16th Floor | New York, N.Y. 10022 | United States

Telephone: +1 212 277-3600

Oslo | Dronning Eufemias gate 8 | P.O.Box 748 Sentrum | N-0194 Oslo | Norway

Telephone: +47 22 93 63 00

An Astrup Fearnley Company | www.fearnleysecurities.com

London

New York Paris

Houston

Mumbai

Tokyo

Oslo

Stockholm

Santa BarbaraSingapore

Beijing Hong Kong Shanghai

Offshore Rig

Offshore Supply

Shipping

Investment Banking I Direct Investments

Energy Broking

OsloBeijingGenova

Hong KongHoustonLondon

MumbaiNew YorkParis

Santa BarbaraShanghaiSingapore

StockholmTokyo

Genoa

The Astrup Fearnley Global Network


Peder Nicolai Jarlsby Bloomberg FEFO | IB: Fearnley ...

Documents

Transcript of Peder Nicolai Jarlsby Bloomberg FEFO | IB: Fearnley ...