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Smart(er) TV: Werbung, Geräte, Trends
München, 25.10. 2019
Dr. Daniel Knapp
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Das missverständlichste Chart der Werbewelt?
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Ende der Symbiose von Massenmarken und Massenmedien
3
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Werbewachstum niedriger als Wirtschaftswachstum
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Ad spend is getting decoupled from wider economic growth
US total ad spend GDP
16,5%
13,8%
11,8%
10,4%
7,0% 6,6%
2,7% 2,6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
LATAM Africa ME APAC World CEE US WE
Ad spend CAGR 2016-2021
Source: corporate filings, local industry bodies, GroupM IAB Europe, own calculations. Paid-media only.
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Marken fahren Werbeausgaben zurück
5
8,6%
8,4% 8,4%8,3%
8,4%8,3%
8,4%
8,2%
8,0%7,9%
7,4%
7,6%
7,8%
8,0%
8,2%
8,4%
8,6%
8,8%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
A & P spend/revenue for top global advertisers
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CMO muss die Sprache des CFO sprechen: Werbe-Erfolg wird anders definiert
14%
9%
45%
33%
“Does your marketing organization have its own P&L to capture revenue?”
No, but plan to in the next 24 months
No, and no plans to add within next 24 months
Yes, has own P&L
Yes, but shares P&L with other business units
Source: Gartner, n = 348
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Programmatic ist der neue Standard
7
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72,1%
27,9%
2018
programmatic non-programmatic
20,0%
80,0%
2013
programmatic non-programmatic
Share of Digital Ad Spend in Europe by Transaction Mechanism
Digitale Werbespendings laufen vornehmlichüber Daten & Automatisierung
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9,4%13,7%
19,9%
34,9%
48,2%
54,4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
4.000
4.500
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Europe: Digital Video Ad Spend by Transaction Model (EURm)
programmatic video other video share programmatic video
Note: includes in-stream, out-stream and in-feed video
Video-Werbung: Über 50% der Ausgaben sindprogrammatisch
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92% 90% 85% 78% 75% 72%83%
65%55%
45% 40%
8% 10% 15% 22% 25% 28%17%
35%45%
55% 60%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
New
spap
ers
TV
Radi
o
Cine
ma
Out
-of-H
ome
Mag
azin
es
Paid
-for-
Sear
ch
Onl
ine
Disp
lay
& V
ideo
Prog
amm
atic
Mob
ile
Soci
al
Advertising Spend Structure By Medium in 2018
Media Buy Agency Labor*
Digital MediaTraditional Media
*all agency production & service costs including shoot, talent, creation, advisory, planning, measurement, optimization
Datenwert > Mediawert?
10
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Digitalierungslogik kehrt sich um
11
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12
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Geräte-Wachstum kommt aus demWohnzimmer, nicht über das Smartphone
13Source: IHS Markit
Chart1
2015USA2015USA2015USA2015USA2015USA2015USA2015USA2015USA
20172017201720172017201720172017
20192019201920192019201920192019
2015UK2015UK2015UK2015UK2015UK2015UK2015UK2015UK
20172017201720172017201720172017
20192019201920192019201920192019
2015Japan2015Japan2015Japan2015Japan2015Japan2015Japan2015Japan2015Japan
20172017201720172017201720172017
20192019201920192019201920192019
2015France2015France2015France2015France2015France2015France2015France2015France
20172017201720172017201720172017
20192019201920192019201920192019
2015Germany2015Germany2015Germany2015Germany2015Germany2015Germany2015Germany2015Germany
20172017201720172017201720172017
20192019201920192019201920192019
PCs
Smart TVs
Pay TV STBs
DMAs
BD players
Game Consoles
Tablets
Smartphones
Connected devices installed by type by country (m)
357.259
43.727
69.993
48.256
24.784
61.289
176.995
279.39
355.763
74.997
100.843
85.647
28.05
62.849
171.104
338.377
349.143
108.106
129.17
118.456
28.098
68.743
156.232
377.904
63.326
9.784
11.598
4.37
3.918
12.057
17.344
56.684
61.446
14.192
18.097
10.288
4.768
12.284
18.465
68.733
59.636
19.652
22.836
17.398
5.165
12.989
16.3
79.015
91.226
37.036
4.624
3.792
20.443
20.718
30.427
78.496
89.055
42.493
5.388
7.491
24.23
23.652
37.304
101.282
86.528
48.242
6.172
11.617
25.029
31.244
40.655
137.092
40.653
9.999
20.538
1.879
2.995
8.361
21.997
40.778
43.213
15.007
23.129
4.235
3.484
9.571
24.591
55.416
45.42
20.333
24.757
7.255
3.55
11.188
23.769
63.334
70.609
17.052
4.952
3.55
3.95
7.586
27.922
65.47
70.739
23.43
8.017
9.05
4.959
9.382
31.345
80.612
70.362
28.397
10.161
15.17
5.22
11.254
30.363
100.907
Sheet1
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Category 14.32.42
Category 22.54.42
Category 33.51.83
Category 44.52.85
USAUKJapanFranceGermany
Device Type201520172019201520172019201520172019201520172019201520172019
PCs357356349636160918987414345717170
Smart TVs4475108101420374248101520172328
Pay TV STBs701011291218235562123255810
DMAs48861184101747122474915
BD players252828455202425334455
Game Consoles616369121213212431810118911
Tablets177171156171816303741222524283130
Smartphones279338378576979781011374155636581101
UKBD players
UKDMAs
UKFTA Set-top Boxes
UKGame Consoles
UKPay-TV set-top boxes
UKPCs
UKSmart TVs
UKSmartphones
UKTablets
USABD players
USADMAs
USAFTA Set-top Boxes
USAGame Consoles
USAPay-TV set-top boxes
USAPCs
USASmart TVs
USASmartphones
USATablets
Chart1
2015China2015China2015China2015China2015China2015China2015China2015China
20172017201720172017201720172017
20192019201920192019201920192019
PCs
Smart TVs
Pay TV STBs
DMAs
BD players
Game Consoles
Tablets
Smartphones
405.204
56.698
8.356
33.278
0.504
0.197
144.897
958.38
439.308
107.733
13.206
46.383
1.003
0.568
179.132
1133.025
451.911
167.874
18.107
55.387
1.447
1
185.653
1223.082
Sheet1
Series 1Series 2Series 3
Category 14.32.42
Category 22.54.42
Category 33.51.83
Category 44.52.85
China
Device Type201520172019
PCs405439452
Smart TVs57108168
Pay TV STBs81318
DMAs334655
BD players111
Game Consoles011
Tablets145179186
Smartphones9581,1331,223
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Channel 4: plötzlich ‘OTT-first’
2016
~10-15%
2018
~55-60%**for some shows, e.g. British Bake-Off
OTT+ Usage (share of total consumption)
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Roku: Indikator für die Streaming-Explosion
15
284 326
225
417
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2017 2018
Roku revenue ($m)
Player revenue Platform revenue
9,2
24
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2017 2018
Roku: Streaming hours on Smart TVs (bn)
+161%
Source: Roku letter to shareholders, Q4 2018
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Risiko der Marktsättigung
“[…] SVOD is still a huge question mark for us. We are putting together our budget forecast for the next five years on what SVOD growth might be, and we’re being very conservative on what that growth looks like after next year. With AVOD, though, it feels like there’s a much cleaner path of growth.”
-US TV Executive-
16
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17Source: Deutsche Bank
Trad. Free-TV: Finanzanalysten sind skeptisch
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Negativtrend in allen ‘Big 5’-Märkten
18
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Trad. linear TV NAR growth (YoY)
France Germany Italy Spain UK
Source: GroupM & local trade bodies, own forecasts based on econometric analysis & media buyer interviews
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‘ Big 5’: Lineare TV-Werbung verliert €2Mrd.
19
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
20.000
2017 2023
EU Big 5: TV NAR losses over time
TV NAR TV losses
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Werbung im ‘Next TV’: Über was sprechen wir eigentlich?
(Broadcaster) AVOD
Addressable TV
Programmatic TV
Data-driven linear TV
Connected TV
Uses cable and satellite infrastructure to deliver household addressable ads via set-top boxes. Each household watching
the same program will see different ads.
Uses data, science and software to
optimise campaigns on an audience basis, to reach specific types of people or to drive particular outcomes.
AVOD/OTT, which delivers ads, many of
them targeted, into the streams of video services
like RTL, Mediaset,
Channel 4, etc.
Delivers digital ads into apps or streams on
TVs connected to the Internet, ranging from banners in EPGs over
YouTube videos or inventory on premium programmers’ content
through streaming devices (e.g. Amazon
Fire, Smart TVs).
Form of traditional television advertising
with a data-driven slant. Certain TV ad
slots are made available for
programmatic purchase, which are carried out by DSPs.
“Advanced TV” (if ad appears in trad. TV broadcast stream)
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Connected TV: Standards, Infrastruktur treibenMarktpotential
140
5575
4512
300
240
135110 98
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
UK France Germany Spain Italy
NAR on CTV advertising (€m)
2018 2023
Source: calculations based on MTM/SpotX
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Was hält den Massenmarkt (noch) zurück?
• Sales strategies are immature• Inventory is fragmented across
different services & hard to
aggregate
• Lack of clarity about the scale & value of available inventory
• Data availability & quality
Sample inventory specifications
Source: The TradeDesk
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Welche Player gewinnen?
23
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Inhalte strategisch wichtig
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017 2014 2015 2016 2017
Walt Disney Co NBC Universal Sky Discovery Comms. Viacom Inc. HBO Netflix Amazon
Original & Acquired Program spend ($m)
24Note: Excludes SportSource: IHS Markit
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Smart TV-Hersteller wollen neue Gatekeeper sein
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Silicon-Valley-Plattformen werden deutlichenAnteil an der neuen TV-Welt haben
2017
Legacy TV YouTube Facebook Others
2023
Legacy TV YouTube Facebook Others
Europe: share of total TV ad revenues• Platforms will take ~1/4 of
total TV ad spend in next 5 years
• In ‘advanced TV’, their share may amount to 33%-50%
• DMAs, Apps, content, buying infrastructure will drive their share
Source: local trade bodies, GroupM, company filings, modelled data
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Amazons nächste Innovationsphase zielt auch auf TV
0,5 0,60,7
1,10,9 1,0
1,1
1,72
2,22,5
3,7
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017 Q3 2017 Q4 2017 Q1 2018 Q2 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018
Amazon’s Global Advertising Revenue ($bn)
CAGR: +58% CAGR: +125%
Source: corporate filings, own calculations
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Potentiale durch 2 Monetarisierungswege
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
0200400600800
1.0001.2001.400
US
sate
llite
AT&T
Amaz
on
Glo
bal p
ay T
V
Appl
e
Net
flix
Dis
ney
Dis
cove
ry
Fox
YouT
ube
Face
book
Rea
ch (b
n)
ARPU
($) p
er y
ear
ARPU equivalent per subscriber / device / active user / account (reach)
ARPU Reach
28
Technology & bundles Content & advertising
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‘Addressable’ hat nun Reichweite in UK nachstrategischem Deal
Household Addressable:
1st party & 3rd party (Experian)
2014 2019 2019
Expansion to 100+ channels & 30m
targetable TV viewers, 40& of UK
population
True scale through major free-to-air broadcaster media planers can’t go
without
2017
First free-to-air
partner
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Neue Marken brauchen andere TV-Denkweise
30
200
9588
76 7056 56
35 2921 15 12 11 11 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
0
50
100
150
200
250
Europe: Number of DTC companies per Category
Source: Webcrawl & semantic analysis for IAB Europe
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UK: TV-Neukunden nutzen die Möglichkeiten
31
Quelle: Sky
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‘Tech Lash’ verhindern durchnachhaltige Innovation
32
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TV: Vorteil in digitaler Messkrise
33
2.0721.795
933617
237
5.259
133 105 57 35
807508
25 21 170
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
Impressions Valid & Viewable Audible & Reached 1/4 Audible & Reached 1/2 Audible & Completed
Ad impressions in ‘000s by KPI
YouTube Facebook Unruly
Source: Ebiquity
Default reporting metrics What drives brands
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Krise der digitalen Werbung: Risiko durch Intermediäre
34
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Wachstum braucht Klarheit
Smart(er) TV: �Werbung, Geräte, Trends Das missverständlichste Chart der Werbewelt?Ende der Symbiose von Massenmarken und MassenmedienWerbewachstum niedriger als WirtschaftswachstumMarken fahren Werbeausgaben zurückCMO muss die Sprache des CFO sprechen: Werbe-Erfolg wird anders definiertProgrammatic ist der neue Standard Digitale Werbespendings laufen vornehmlich über Daten & AutomatisierungVideo-Werbung: Über 50% der Ausgaben sind programmatischDatenwert > Mediawert?Digitalierungslogik kehrt sich umFoliennummer 12Geräte-Wachstum kommt aus dem Wohnzimmer, nicht über das SmartphoneChannel 4: plötzlich ‘OTT-first’Roku: Indikator für die Streaming-ExplosionRisiko der MarktsättigungTrad. Free-TV: Finanzanalysten sind skeptischNegativtrend in allen ‘Big 5’-Märkten‘ Big 5’: Lineare TV-Werbung verliert €2Mrd. Werbung im ‘Next TV’: Über was sprechen wir eigentlich?�Connected TV: Standards, Infrastruktur treiben MarktpotentialWas hält den Massenmarkt (noch) zurück?Welche Player gewinnen?Inhalte strategisch wichtigSmart TV-Hersteller wollen neue Gatekeeper seinSilicon-Valley-Plattformen werden deutlichen Anteil an der neuen TV-Welt haben �Amazons nächste Innovationsphase zielt auch auf TVPotentiale durch 2 Monetarisierungswege�‘Addressable’ hat nun Reichweite in UK nach strategischem DealNeue Marken brauchen andere TV-DenkweiseUK: TV-Neukunden nutzen die Möglichkeiten‘Tech Lash’ verhindern durch nachhaltige InnovationTV: Vorteil in digitaler MesskriseKrise der digitalen Werbung: Risiko durch IntermediäreWachstum braucht KlarheitVielen Dank!