SWP-WebMonitor Nahost/Nordafrika Nr. 53/2020

SWP-Informationsservices Jürgen Rogalski, 09.10.2020

Der SWP-WebMonitor Nahost/Nordafrika ist ein unentgeltliches, kompaktes Informations-produkt mit ausgewählten Hinweisen auf aktuelle Stellungnahmen, Dokumente und Analy-sen zu allen (außen-) politisch relevanten Fragen und Entwicklungen der Region. Bei allen Titeln gibt es einen Link, meistens direkt zum Volltext. Grundlage der Erstellung ist ein über-wiegend festgelegtes Set an Quellen: Webseiten, Blogs, Zeitschriften etc. Der Auswahl-Fokus liegt neben Dokumenten auf wissenschaftlichen bzw. wissenschaftlich basierten Beiträgen. Neben Titeln mit konkretem Länder- bzw. Regionalbezug werden auch solche berücksichtigt, deren Thematik relevant ist für die Region. Der WebMonitor wird i.d.R. ein- bis zweimal wö-chentlich erstellt, nicht aber bei Abwesenheit des Bearbeiters.

Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Israel / Palästina > Israel / Palästina / Syrien > Palästina > Israel > Israel - VAE / Bahrain > Libanon > Syrien > Irak > Jordanien > Kuwait > VAE > VAE / Saudi-Arabien > Saudi-Arabien > Jemen > Oman > Iran > Ägypten > Ägypten / Nilanrainer > Nordafrika / Maghreb > Libyen

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> Tunesien > Algerien > Marokko > EU - Mittelmeerraum / MENA-Region > EU - Mittelmeerraum / MENA-Region / Afrika: Migrationspolitik / Flüchtlinge > Türkei - MENA-Region > USA - MENA-Region > Russland - MENA-Region > Russland / VR China - MENA-Region > VR China - MENA-Region > AL (Arabische Liga) > Regionalpolitik / regionale Prozesse > Regionale Sicherheit / Rüstung > Bürgerkriege / Friedensbemühungen (allg./theoret.) > Demokratie / autoritäre Herrschaft (global) > Autoritäre Herrschaft / Regionalorganisationen (allg.) > Demokratisierung (MENA-Region) > Meinungsumfrage: Jugendliche / junge Menschen (MENA-Region) > Islamismus / Islamisten > Terrorismus / Jihadismus / -bekämpfung > Rüstung / Militär (länderbezogen) > Wasser / Konflikte (allg./MENA-Region/Afrika) > Wirtschaft / Entwicklung (global) > Coronavirus-Krise / COVID-19 (allg./global) > Coronavirus-Krise / COVID-19 (MENA-Region)

> Israel / Palästina

Podcast: Annäherung Israel – Vereinigte Arabische Emirate: Palästinenser in der Abseits-falle? Muriel Asseburg, Peter Lintl, Guido Steinberg SWP-Podcast, 10.2020, 00:30h http://bit.ly/SWP20P10 The Abraham Accords: An invitation to rethink the Arab-Israeli conflict Gil Murciano "The Abraham Accords between Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) may have started as a PR stunt, but regional and global circumstances have turned them into a potential game changer. Europe should assist in leveraging them to reengage with the Palestinian issue ..." SWP Point of View, 08.10.2020, ca. 2 S. http://bit.ly/SWP20PoV1008 Special Issue: The Pandemic and Palestine

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Journal of Palestine Studies, Issue 196, Vol. 49 No. 4 (Summer 2020), ca. 100 S. Übersicht, Abstracts und (teilw.) Volltexte: https://www.palestine-studies.org/en/node/1650616 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Israel / Palästina / Syrien

السطو على میاه الجولان لخدمة المشروع الاستیطاني أیمن أبو جبلHarmoon Center, 09.10.2020, ca. 5 S. https://www.harmoon.org/reports/السطو-على-میاه-الجولان-لخدمة-المشروع-ا/ Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Palästina

A Palestinian Statelet in Gaza José S. Vericat "Fatah leaders routinely accuse Hamas of plotting to establish an “emirate” in the Gaza Strip. Gaza is in fact turning into a statelet separate from the West Bank, but it is Israeli policies that are driving the “Gaza is Palestine” option with a series of measures that have been implemented since the early 1990s to sever Gaza from the West Bank. ..." In: Journal of Palestine Studies, Issue 196, Vol. 49 No. 4 (Summer 2020), S. 109-126. Abstract und Bestellung: https://www.palestine-studies.org/en/node/1650625 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Israel

Is Israel heading toward civil war? Ben Caspit "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s growing incitement, the deepening economic crisis, the bat-tle over demonstrations and ultra-Orthodox coronavirus infections are taking Israel several steps closer to a civil war. ..." Al Monitor, 06.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-menachem-begin-coronavirus.html 'Black Flag' anti-Netanyahu movement turning Israel upside down Mazal Mualem

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Al Monitor, 06.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/israel-benjamin-netanyahu-benny-gantz-gillon-black-flag.html >>> Caucasus Clash Could Endanger Israeli Oil Imports Simon Henderson WINEP, 06.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/caucasus-clash-could-endanger-is-raeli-oil-imports The Baku Balance: How Azerbaijan Juggles Israel and Iran David Pollock Fikra Forum, 07.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/fikraforum/view/baku-balance-azerbaijan-juggles-israel-iran Pakistan's Israel dilemma Vinay Kaura MEI, 06.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.mei.edu/publications/pakistans-israel-dilemma Event Summary: Arabs Taking Risks for Peace - Stories from the Frontlines of People-to-People Contact with Israelis Ismail Sayyid Ahmad, Sukina Meshekhis, Ahdeya Ahmed Al-Sayed, Mohamed Al-Hammadi, and Jo-seph Braude WINEP, 08.10.2020, ca. 2 S. + Video https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/arabs-taking-risks-for-peace-stories-from-the-frontlines-of-people-to-peopl L’histoire oubliée de l’alliance entre Israël et les dictatures latino-américaines Ramona Wadi Orient XXI, 05.10.2020, ca. 3 S. https://orientxxi.info/magazine/l-histoire-oubliee-de-l-alliance-entre-israel-et-les-dictatures-la-tino,4156 The downfall of Turkish–Israeli relations: a cold peace between former strategic allies Umut Uzer In: Israel Affairs Volume 26, Issue 5 (08.2020), S. 687-697. Abstract und Download für SWP: https://doi.org/10.1080/13537121.2020.1806563 >>>

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The evolution of stock market analysts’ recommendations in Israel, 2002-17 Tchai Tavor & Zvi Winer In: Israel Affairs Volume 26, Issue 5 (08.2020), S. 650-665. Abstract und Download für SWP: https://doi.org/10.1080/13537121.2020.1806522 Female labor force participation in Israel, 1955-2017 Andrew Schein In: Israel Affairs Volume 26, Issue 5 (08.2020), S. 635-649. Abstract und Download für SWP: https://doi.org/10.1080/13537121.2020.1806515 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Israel - VAE / Bahrain

Podcast: Annäherung Israel – Vereinigte Arabische Emirate: Palästinenser in der Abseits-falle? Muriel Asseburg, Peter Lintl, Guido Steinberg SWP-Podcast, 10.2020, 00:30h http://bit.ly/SWP20P10 Israeli, Emirati diplomats meet in Germany Al Monitor, 06.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/israel-uae-fm-germany-maas-nahyan-ashkenazi-berlin-emirates.html The Use and Misuse of Leverage Michael J. Koplow "One of the important issues raised by the Abraham Accords is leverage and how it can be used. ..." IPF, 08.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://israelpolicyforum.org/2020/10/08/the-use-and-misuse-of-leverage/ Consequences of the Normalisation of Relations between Israel and Gulf States Michał Wojnarowicz PISM, 06.10.2020, 2 S. https://www.pism.pl/file/aa03aab6-2ead-4de2-a8e3-3ccbf595188b Golfe-Israël. L’effet-miroir de la Covid-19 Ezra Nahmad Orient XXI, 08.10.2020, ca. 3 S. https://orientxxi.info/magazine/golfe-israel-l-effet-miroir-de-la-covid-19,4182 The Future of Israel-Gulf Normalization: Implications of the 2020 Presidential Election

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Jesse Kandel Jadaliyya, 08.10.2020, ca. 5 S. https://www.jadaliyya.com/Details/41796/The-Future-of-Israel-Gulf-Normalization-Implications-of-the-2020-Presidential-Election المُعـلنَُ والمَخفِـيُّ في اتفاق "أبراھام مكرم المسعديAl Jazeera Centre for Studies, 08.10.2020, 10 S. https://studies.aljazeera.net/sites/default/files/articles/documents/2020- pdf.المُعـلنَُ%20والمَخفِـيُّ%20في%20اتفاق%20أبراھام/10 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Libanon

Lebanon's 'Marshal Petain' Alberto M. Fernandez "October is a fateful month for Michel Aoun. ..." MEMRI, 06.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.memri.org/reports/lebanons-marshal-petain >>> Lebanon on the Brink as Reform Remains Stalled After Beirut Blas Mona Yacoubian USIP, 08.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.usip.org/publications/2020/10/lebanon-brink-reform-remains-stalled-after-beirut-blast Can Lebanon Survive As It Is? Michael Young "If Hezbollah seeks a change in the country’s political system, its weapons will not help it to do so. ..." Diwan, 06.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/82887 Blood and Grapes "In an interview, Michael Karam speaks about a new documentary on wine and war in Lebanon. ..." Diwan, 07.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://carnegie-mec.org/diwan/82888 >>> Hezbollah’s Secrets Explode—and Are Covered Up—Again

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Assaf Orion WINEP, 08.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/hezbollahs-secrets-explodeand-are-covered-upagain Hezbollah and the framing of resistance Marco Nilsson In: Third World Quarterly, Volume 41, Issue 9 (09.2020), S. 1595-1614. Abstract und Download (open access): https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2020.1779587 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Syrien

Despite COVID-19, Efforts to Verify Destruction of Syria’s Chemical Weapons Stockpile Con-tinue, High Representative Tells Security Council - Second Briefer Excluded as Procedural Vote Fails to Win Support of Most Members UNSC, 05.10.2020, ca. 3 S. https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14318.doc.htm Webcast: http://webtv.un.org/meetings-events/security-council/watch/the-situation-in-the-middle-east-syria-security-council-8764th-meeting/6197824456001/ Meeting Record (28 S.): http://undocs.org/en/S/PV.8764 Zum Hintergrund: https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/sc14318.doc.htm Syrian Arab Republic: COVID-19 Response Update No. 11 UN-OCHA, 07.10.2020, 15 S. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/finala_covid_response_update_no._11_.pdf >>> Deprivation of Existence: The Use of Disguised Legalization as a Policy to Seize Property by Successive Governments of Syria Syrians for Truth and Justice, 09.10.2020, ca. 3 S. https://stj-sy.org/en/deprivation-of-existence-the-use-of-disguised-legalization-as-a-policy-to-seize-property-by-successive-governments-of-syria/ >>> Turkey Reinforces Positions in Greater Idlib to Pressure Russia into Negotiations Andrew Greco

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ISW, 07.10.2020, 1 S. + Karte http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/turkey-reinforces-positions-greater-idlib-pres-sure-russia-negotiations Syria Situation Report: September 16-29, 2020 Andrew Greco ISW, 02.10.2020, 1 S. + Karte http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/syria-situation-report-september-16-29-2020 Le nord-ouest de la Syrie démuni face à la Covid-19 Hussein Al-Khatib Orient XXI, 06.10.2020, ca. 3 S. https://orientxxi.info/magazine/le-nord-ouest-de-la-syrie-demuni-face-a-la-covid-19,4174 البعُد الأمني في الضغط على تنظیم حرّاس الدین.. الأسالیب والأھدافJusoor, 07.10.2020, ca. 1 S. https://www.jusoor.co/de-tails/779/البعُد%20الأمني%20في%20الضغط%20على%20تنظیم%20حرّاس%20الدین..%20الأسالیب%20والأھداف/ar Kurdish authorities set to release Syrians from camp for IS familie Amberin Zaman Al Monitor, 05.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/syria-kurdish-authorities-sdf-release-alhol-isis-families.html PYD-KNC peace talks: Whither peace in Syria’s northeast? COAR, 28.09.2020, ca. 5 S. https://coar-global.org/2020/09/28/pyd-knc-peace-talks-whither-peace-in-syrias-northeast/ Intel: Oman ambassador returns to Syria Joe Snell Al Monitor, 08.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/oman-syria-damascus-ambassador-gulf-arab-assad-civil-war.html لافروف في دمشق: ھل تنجح موسكو في إبرام تسویة سوریة قبل الانتخابات الأمریكیة؟Strategy-Watch, 09.09.2020, 6 S. https://strategy-watch.com/wp-content/uploads/200909-Research-and-Studies.pdf Southern Syria: “Sibling feud” or engineered violence? Abdullah Al-Jabassini MEI, 07.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.mei.edu/publications/southern-syria-sibling-feud-or-engineered-violence >>>

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Virtual Event: Obstacles to a Free and Fair Presidential Election in Syria "Syrian presidential elections are scheduled for 2021. President Bashar al-Assad and his close con-fidants have said that they will go ahead with the elections without a new constitution and irrespec-tive of whether they meet the standards of the political process outlined in Security Council Resolu-tion 2254. ..." EIP/CEIP, 14.10.2020, 03:00 PM in Paris Übersicht und Registrierung: https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_f8naAku7S96Y5DdCikzXzA The Syrian economy at war - Armed group mobilization as livelihood and protection strategy COAR, 30.09.2020, 12 S. https://coar-global.org/2020/09/30/the-economy-of-war-in-syria-armed-group-mobilization-as-livelihood-and-protection-strategy/ علاقة الدین بالدستور في عصر المواطنة أحمد الرمحHarmoon Center, 06.10.2020, ca. 3 S. https://www.harmoon.org/reports/علاقة-الدین-بالدستور-في-عصر-المواطنة/ Perspectives on the Jihad in Syria: Interview with 'Jallad al-Murji'a' Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi's Blog, 04.10.2020, ca. 10 S. http://www.aymennjawad.org/2020/10/perspectives-on-the-jihad-in-syria-interview-with >>> Fortschritt mit Nebenwirkungen – Neue Untersuchungsergebnisse zu Chemiewaffeneinsät-zen in Syrien Una Jakob HSFK, 06.2020, 4 S. https://www.hsfk.de/fileadmin/HSFK/hsfk_publikationen/Spotlight0420.pdf The Renewed ‘Struggle for Syria’: From the War ‘in’ Syria to the War ‘over’ Syria Philippe Droz-Vincent "... in this case, there is no sharp dichotomy between intervention and non-intervention. In lieu of an intervention that would tilt the balance and coordinate help to halt massacres, various rival and uncoordinated international and regional interventions overlapped over time, fuelling a market for violence. ..." In: The International Spectator, Volume 55, Issue 3 (09.2020), S. 115-131. Abstract und Download für SWP: https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2020.1796007 Departing ‘Secularism’: boundary appropriation and extension of the Syrian state in the reli-gious domain since 2011 Rahaf Aldoughli

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"Despite the official secularity of the Syrian state, religion has always been a viable instrument used by the Baˈathist regime to consolidate its authority and legitimacy. ... how the deployment of reli-gion has become a source of security, legitimacy and survival for the Baˈathist regime since 2011." In: British Journal of Middle Eastern Studies (online first), 08.2020, 26 S. Abstract und Download für SWP: https://doi.org/10.1080/13530194.2020.1805299 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Irak

Iraq Warning Intelligence Update: “October Revolution” Anniversary Protests Set to Resume Katherine Lawlor ISW, 30.09.2020, 7 S. http://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Iraq%20Warning%20Upd.%20Octo-ber%20Revolution%20Anniversary%20Protests%20Set%20to%20Resume%20.pdf If it wants to succeed, Iraq's protest movement needs to get organised Mustafa Saadoon MEE, 08.10.2020, ca. 3 S. https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/iraqs-protest-movement-needs-get-organised The Still-Growing Threat of Iran’s Chosen Proxy in Iraq Hamdi Malik War on the Rocks, 05.10.2020, ca. 3 S. https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/the-still-growing-threat-of-irans-chosen-proxy-in-iraq/ Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Jordanien

Jordan: US security assistance and border defense capacity building Jumana Kawar MEI, 06.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.mei.edu/publications/jordan-us-security-assistance-and-border-defense-capacity-building Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

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> Kuwait

New Kuwaiti emir keeps government in place until elections next month - Emir Sabah seeks unity ahead of Nov. 28 elections. Al Monitor, 06.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/kuwait-emir-sheikh-nawaf-sabah-pm-resign-government-election.html The post-Sabah era in Kuwait Courtney Freer Brookings, 30.09.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/09/30/the-post-sabah-era-in-kuwait/ Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah sought long-term stability at home and abroad Khaled Yacoub Oweis "Obituary: A veteran practitioner of diplomacy, the ruler experienced first hand the risks of a break-down in regional order. ..." The National, 29.09.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.thenational.ae/world/gcc/kuwaiti-emir-sheikh-sabah-sought-long-term-stability-at-home-and-abroad-1.1085591 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> VAE

The UAE’s Manipulative Utilization of Religion Khalil al-Anani ACW, 29.09.2020, ca. 3 S. + Links http://arabcenterdc.org/policy_analyses/the-uaes-manipulative-utilization-of-religion/ Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> VAE / Saudi-Arabien

Review of the Department of State’s Role in Arms Transfers to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates US DoS, 08.2020, 27 S. https://www.stateoig.gov/system/files/isp-i-20-19.pdf Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

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> Saudi-Arabien

Ethiopia: Speech on behalf of HR/VP Borrell in the European Parliament plenary on the situation of migrants in detention centres in Saudi Arabia EEAS, 08.10.2020 https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/86603/ethiopia-speech-behalf-hrvp-borrell-european-parliament-plenary-situation-migrants-detention_en Gesamte plenary session: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/CRE-9-2020-10-08-TOC_EN.html Vgl. European Parliament resolution of 8 October 2020 on the situation of Ethiopian migrants in detention centres in Saudi Arabia EP, 08.10.2020, 7 S. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2020-0260_EN.pdf >>> Review: Saudi’s ruthless visionary - Jim Muir assesses a profile of Prince Mohammed bin Salman - Bespr. von: MBS: The Rise to Power of Mohammed Bin Salman / Ben Hubbard William Collins, 2020. Chatham House, 05.10.2020, 1 S. https://www.chathamhouse.org/publications/the-world-today/2020-10/review-saudis-ruthless-visionary Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Jemen

Yemen Humanitarian Update Issue 9 (September 2020) UN-OCHA, 07.10.2020, 6 S. https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/September%20Humanitarian%20Update%202020.pdf الأمین العام لمجلس التعاون یدین إطلاق المیلیشیات الحوثیة طائرة بدون طیار مفخخة باتجاه المملكة العربیة السعودیةGKR, 06.10.2020 http://www.gcc-sg.org/ar-sa/MediaCenter/NewsCooperation/News/Pages/news2020-10-6-7.aspx >>> [Nachtrag:] Yemen: Houthis Kill, Expel Ethiopian Migrants - Saudis Fire on Survivors, Detain Hundreds in Appalling Conditions HRW, 13.08.2020, ca. 2 S. + Links

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https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/08/13/yemen-houthis-kill-expel-ethiopian-migrants >>> Yemen Should be a Factor in U.S. Yemen Policy "The Trump administration is considering designating Yemen’s Huthi movement as a terrorist or-ganisation, in response to allies’ appeals and as part of the U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran. The idea seems unlikely to reduce Tehran’s influence and could harm diplomatic pro-spects for peace. ..." ICG Commentary, 08.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.crisisgroup.org/united-states/yemen-should-be-factor-us-yemen-policy Ending the Zero-Sum Game: What’s Needed to Strike a Compromise in Yemen Hussein Alwaday YPC, 10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.yemenpolicy.org/ending-the-zero-sum-game-whats-needed-to-strike-a-compromise-in-yemen/ Seizing the State: Ibb’s Security Arrangement after Ansarallah’s Takeover Mareike Transfeld, Maysaa Shuja al-Deen, and Raiman al-Hamdani YPC, 06.2020, ca. 20 S. https://www.yemenpolicy.org/seizing-the-state-ibbs-security-arrangement-after-ansarallahs-takeover-2/# @WAO Russia’s Policy towards the Middle East: The Case of Yemen Leonid Issaev ORCID Icon & Andrey Korotayev In: The International Spectator, Volume 55, Issue 3 (09.2020), S. 132-147. Abstract und Download für SWP: https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2020.1790258 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Oman

Intel: Oman ambassador returns to Syria Joe Snell Al Monitor, 08.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/oman-syria-damascus-ambassador-gulf-arab-assad-civil-war.html Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

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> Iran

Sanctions on Iran’s Financial Institutions - Press Statement Michael R. Pompeo US DoS, 08.10.2020 https://www.state.gov/sanctions-on-irans-financial-institutions/ Iran: Remarks by the High Representative/Vice-President Josep Borrell at the EP plenary debate on the situation in Iran EEAS, 07.10.2020, ca 2 S. https://eeas.europa.eu/headquarters/headquarters-homepage/86497/iran-remarks-high-representativevice-president-josep-borrell-ep-plenary-debate-situation-iran_en EU/Iran: Commission launches two online platforms to support SMEs EU, 06.10.2020 https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_20_1804 Deutschlands Einsatz für Menschenrechte im Iran erhöhen - Menschenrechtsverletzungen durch das iranische Regime entschieden verurteilen und ahnden - Antrag der Fraktion der FDP BT, 06.10.2020 Vorgang und Download: http://dipbt.bundestag.de/extrakt/ba/WP19/2681/268163.html >>> Event Summary: An October Surprise with Iran? Calculations and Policy Implications Mehdi Khalaji, Ariane Tabatabai, and Michael Eisenstadt WINEP, 08.10.2020, ca. 2 S. + Video https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/an-october-surprise-with-iran-calcu-lations-and-policy-implications Biden, Iran: Do Democrats mean Detente with Iran? Massaab Al-Aloosy Doha Institute, 08.10.2020, 3 S. https://www.dohainstitute.org/en/Lists/ACRPS-PDFDocumentLibrary/Biden-Iran-Do-Democrats-Mean-Detente-with-Iran.pdf Flare-Up in Nagorno-Karabakh: The Iranian Dimension Farzin Nadimi "New hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan are forcing Tehran to balance domestic demo-graphic concerns and its desire to expand military ties with Yerevan. ..." WINEP, 06.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/flare-up-in-nagorno-karabakh-the-iranian-dimension

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>>> Protests and Regime Suppression in Post-Revolutionary Iran Saeid Golkar WINEP, 10.2020, 24 S. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyNote85Golkar.pdf @WAO

بویة في إیران: كیف نفھم تیار أحمدي نجاد؟الشع فاطمة الصماديAl Jazeera Centre for Studies, 04.10.2020, 17 S. https://studies.aljazeera.net/sites/default/files/articles/documents/2020- pdf.الشعبویة%20في%20إیران/10 «Yalda, la nuit du pardon » - La société iranienne au miroir de sa télévision Geneviève Sellier Orient XXI, 06.10.2020, ca. 3 S. https://orientxxi.info/lu-vu-entendu/la-societe-iranienne-au-miroir-de-sa-television,4179 Buchhinweis/Neuerscheinung: The Shah’s Imperial Celebrations of 1971 - Nationalism, Culture and Politics in Late Pahlavi Iran Robert Steele London (I.B. Tauris), 10.2020, 240 S. Übersicht und Bestellung: https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/the-shahs-imperial-celebrations-of-1971-9781838604172/ Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Ägypten

Egypt uses terrorism trials to target human rights activists, say UN experts UN-OHCHR, 08.10.2020 https://www.ohchr.org/en/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=26364&LangID=E >>> Are Sinai-based terrorists shifting to Cairo? Al Monitor, 06.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-military-operation-terrorism-sinai-cairo.html >>> How Do Small Formal and Informal Firms in the Arab Republic of Egypt Compare?

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The World Bank, 10.2020, 100 S. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34594 Will the lights stay on in Egypt? Hisham Fahmy MEI, 07.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.mei.edu/publications/will-lights-stay-egypt الآثار الاستراتیجیة للقمع السیاسي الممتد ھشام شفیقACRPS, 08.10.2020, 6 S. https://www.dohainstitute.org/ar/Lists/ACRPS-PDFDocumentLibrary/Egypt-Strategic-Implications-of-Extended-Political-Repression.pdf Rethinking Egypt's Economy Mirette F. Mabrouk (ed.) "Egypt is not alone in having been knocked into a pit by the fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic, but it will have to dig itself out on its own. ..." MEI, 10.2020, 50 S. https://www.mei.edu/sites/default/files/2020-10/Rethinking%20Egypt%27s%20Economy.pdf @WAO Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Ägypten / Nilanrainer

Ethiopian ambassador to Cairo vows to bridge gaps over Nile dam Muhammed Magdy Al Monitor, 06.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/10/egypt-new-ethiopia-ambassador-nile-dam-negotiations.html The United States Has a Role to Play in the Nile Yasir Zaidan War on the Rocks, 02.10.2020, ca. 3 S. https://warontherocks.com/2020/10/the-united-states-has-a-role-to-play-in-the-nile/ The controversy over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam John Mukum Mbaku Brookings, 05.08.2020, ca. 3 S. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/africa-in-focus/2020/08/05/the-controversy-over-the-grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam/ Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

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> Nordafrika / Maghreb

Webinar: The role of North Africa in the geopolitical relations between Europe and Africa PCNS/KAS, 07.10.2020, 01:39h Webcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmrVBNzhbi0 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Libyen

Online Event: Libya and the New Global Disorder - A Conversation with Ghassan Salamé CEIP, 15.10.2020, 9:00 to 10:00 a.m. EDT Webcast: https://tinyurl.com/y6nee5km Libyan talks raise hopes of reunification "The recent talks in Bouznika, Morocco have laid the foundations to kickstart the reunification of Libya. ..." ISSAfrica, 30.09.2020, ca. 2 S. https://issafrica.org/pscreport/psc-insights/libyan-talks-raise-hopes-of-reunification PSC Report Interview: Finding a Libyan solution to the Libyan crisis Nasser Bourita ISSAfrica, 30.09.2020, ca. 2 S. https://issafrica.org/pscreport/psc-insights/psc-report-interview-finding-a-libyan-solution-to-the-libyan-crisis Covid-19 and Proxy Conflict: The Case of Libya Emad Badi PWI/Atlantic Council, 2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.pwinitiative.org/covid-19-and-proxy-conflict Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Tunesien

Bundesregierung fördert Unternehmerinnen in Tunesien und Marokko - Wirtschaftliche Zusam-menarbeit und Entwicklung/Antwort - inkl. Links zur Anfrage der AfD-Fraktion und Antwort der BR hib, 07.10.2020 https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/797676-797676

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>>> Do Arab public opinion support policies of regional powers in MENA? View from Tunisia Ekrem Karakoç & Mesut Özcan In: The Journal of North African Studies (online first), 09.2020, 26 S. Abstract und Download für SWP: https://doi.org/10.1080/13629387.2020.1826318 Youth quotas and “Jurassic Park” politicians: age as a heuristic for vote choice in Tunisia’s new democracy Kirstie Lynn Dobbs In: Democratization, Volume 27, Issue 6, 09.2020, S. 990-1005. Abstract und Download für SWP: https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2020.1763312 Book Review: Quand la Tunisie ouvrait la voie … Combats et débats d'une année révolutionnaire by Pierre Robert Baduel, Paris, Éditions Non Lieu, 2020, 440 S. John P. Entelis In: The Journal of North African Studies (online first), 09.2020, 3 S. Preview und Download für SWP: https://doi.org/10.1080/13629387.2020.1827556 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Algerien

Keine Kooperation mit Algerien in den Bereichen Wasser, Nahrung und Energie - Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung/Antwort - inkl. Links zur Anfrage der AfD-Fraktion und Antwort der BR hib, 07.10.2020 https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/797662-797662 >>> Algeria: Migrants, Asylum Seekers Forced Out - Thousands, Including Children, Expelled to Niger Without Due Process HRW, 09.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/10/09/algeria-migrants-asylum-seekers-forced-out Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

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> Marokko

Bundesregierung fördert Unternehmerinnen in Tunesien und Marokko - Wirtschaftliche Zusam-menarbeit und Entwicklung/Antwort - inkl. Links zur Anfrage der AfD-Fraktion und Antwort der BR hib, 07.10.2020 https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/797676-797676 >>> Global Aspirations and Local Realities of Solar Energy in Morocco Atman Aoui, Moulay Ahmed el Amrani, Karen Rignall MERIP online, 06.10.2020, ca. 3 S. https://merip.org/2020/10/global-aspirations-and-local-realities-of-solar-energy-in-morocco/ The Moroccan city: a quest for cultural memory in Francophone and Arabophone contemporary lit-erature Nisrine Slitine El Mghari In: The Journal of North African Studies (online first), 08.2020, ca. 20 S. Abstract und Download für SWP: https://doi.org/10.1080/13629387.2020.1806827 Buchhinweis/Neuerscheinung: Nationalism and Jewish Identity in Morocco - A History of a Minority Community Kristin Hissong London (I.B. Tauris), 10.2020, 248 S. Übersicht und Bestellung: https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/nationalism-and-jewish-identity-in-morocco-9781838607388/ Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> EU - Mittelmeerraum / MENA-Region

Webinar: Those who do not learn from the past are condemned to repeat it - Europe’s role in post-COVID MENA Ibrahim Saif, Dania Koleilat Khatib, Sven Kühn von Burgsdorff DIE/FES, 13.10.2020, 14:00-15:30 CET Übersicht und Registrierung: https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_EHlg3ngAR4maYF6yfFGRng Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

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> EU - Mittelmeerraum / MENA-Region / Afrika: Migrationspolitik / Flüchtlinge

Völkerrechtliche Pflicht zur Seenotrettung - Kleine Anfrage der Fraktion der FDP BT, 07.10.2020 Vorgang und Download (in Kürze): http://dipbt.bundestag.de/extrakt/ba/WP19/2681/268123.html >>> The Pact on Migration and Asylum - To provide a fresh start and avoid past mistakes, risky elements need to be addressed and positive aspects need to be expanded HRW, 08.10.2020, 8 S. https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/10/08/pact-migration-and-asylum >>> Online Seminar: “Migration and the future of EU-Africa relations – one partnership, one approach?” HSS/ISSAfrica, 13.10.2020, 15.00 to 16.30 (GMT+2) Übersicht und Registrierung: https://docs.google.com/forms/d/1snP3_Xl5EcZ-KeF3VMwLwxMS02WZ8L3mfAFthndipI64/viewform?edit_requested=true CEMENTING EUROPEAN DIVISIONS - MAPPING OF EUROPEAN ATTITUDES TOWARDS MIGRATION VERA MESSING, BENCE SÁGVÁRI FES, 09.2020, 15 S. http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/budapest/16566.pdf Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Türkei - MENA-Region

„Die Militärs haben das Sagen“ - Syrien, Libyen, östliches Mittelmeer und nun der Kaukasus – die Türkei ist in vielen Krisenherden präsent. Felix Schmidt in Istanbul über die Motive. IPG Journal, 08.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.ipg-journal.de/interviews/artikel/tuerkei-4706/?utm_cam-paign=de_40_20201009&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter Erdoğan and His Arab “Brothers” Burak Bekdil "... pragmatic Arab states are lining up to normalize relations with Israel, leaving state actors Iran and Turkey as well as non-state actor Hamas in a punishing position of international isolation—ex-actly where Turkey wanted to push Israel. ..." BESA, 08.10.2020, 3 S.

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https://besacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/1772-Erdogan-and-His-Arab-Brethren-Bekdil-final.pdf Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> USA - MENA-Region

US Foreign Policy in the 2020 Elections: Bold Choices in the Middle East Charles W. Dunne ACW, 07.10.2020, ca. 3 S. http://arabcenterdc.org/elections2020/us-foreign-policy-in-the-2020-elections-bold-choices-in-the-middle-east/ The False Promise of Regime Change - Why Washington Keeps Failing in the Middle East Philip H. Gordon FA (online), 07.10.2020, ca. 2 S. Preview und Volltext für SWP: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2020-10-07/false-promise-regime-change The Shia are a black hole for US policy in the Middle East Andrew Peek Atlantic Council, 08.10.2020, ca. 2 S. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/menasource/the-shia-are-a-black-hole-for-us-policy-in-the-middle-east/ Buchhinweis/Neuerscheinung: Arab Intellectuals and American Power - Edward Said, Charles Malik, and the US in the Mid-dle East M.D. Walhout London (I.B. Tauris), 10.2020, 304 S. Übersicht und Bestellung: https://www.bloomsbury.com/uk/arab-intellectuals-and-american-power-9780755634149/ Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Russland - MENA-Region

Russia’s Policy towards the Middle East: The Case of Yemen Leonid Issaev ORCID Icon & Andrey Korotayev In: The International Spectator, Volume 55, Issue 3 (09.2020), S. 132-147. Abstract und Download für SWP: https://doi.org/10.1080/03932729.2020.1790258

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> Russland / VR China - MENA-Region

China and Russia Maneuver in the Middle East Lisa Watanabe CSS, 10.2020, 4 S. https://css.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/gess/cis/center-for-securities-stud-ies/pdfs/CSSAnalyse271-EN.pdf Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> VR China - MENA-Region

یجیة للتوسع العسكري في البحر المتوسط؟ل تملك الصین استراتھ أحمد المرابطيAl Jazeera Centre for Studies, 28.09.2020, ca. 6 S. https://www.dohainstitute.org/ar/Lists/ACRPS-PDFDocumentLibrary/Does-China-Have-a-Strategy-of-Military-Expansion-in-the-Mediterranean.pdf Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> AL (Arabische Liga)

The Arab League’s Many Failures ACW, 08.10.2020, ca. 3 S. http://arabcenterdc.org/policy_analyses/the-arab-leagues-many-failures/ Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Regionalpolitik / regionale Prozesse

A Coming Decade of Arab Decisions Marwan Muasher, Maha Yahya "As the old order in the Arab world collapses, the region needs governance that can resolve its cri-ses and harness its potential. ..." CEIP, 09.2020, ca. 3 S. https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/09/09/coming-decade-of-arab-decisions-pub-82506 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

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> Regionale Sicherheit / Rüstung

باق التسلحّ بالصواریخ الفرط صوتیة والحرب القادمةس خالد المطلقHarmoon Center, 04.10.2020, ca. 7 S. https://www.harmoon.org/reports/سباق-التسلحّ-بالصواریخ-الفرط-صوتیة-وا/ Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Bürgerkriege / Friedensbemühungen (allg./theoret.)

Hindernisse auf dem Weg zu Friedensschlüssen in Bürgerkriegen Thorsten Gromes "... Hindernisse veranschaulicht ... am Beispiel der Kriege bei und nach dem Zerfall Jugoslawiens ..." HSFK, 2020, 42 S. https://www.hsfk.de/fileadmin/HSFK/hsfk_publikationen/prif0320.pdf Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Demokratie / autoritäre Herrschaft (global)

State of the world 2019: autocratization surges – resistance grows Seraphine F. Maerz et al. "... analyses the state of democracy in the world in 2019. ..." In: Democratization, Volume 27, Issue 6, 09.2020, S. 909-927. Abstract und Download (open access): https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2020.1758670 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Autoritäre Herrschaft / Regionalorganisationen (allg.)

The dark side of regionalism: how regional organizations help authoritarian regimes to boost survival Maria J. Debre "... explains how membership in regional organizations can help to strengthen survival chances of autocratic incumbent elites. ... provides qualitative case-based evidence to show how autocratic in-cumbents in Zimbabwe, China, and Bahrain have benefited from the involvement of regional organ-izations during moments of political instability ..." In: Democratization (online first), 19.2020, 20 S. Abstract und Download (open access): https://doi.org/10.1080/13510347.2020.1823970

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> Demokratisierung (MENA-Region)

Democratisation in ambiguous environments: positive prospects for democracy in the MENA region after the Arab Spring Osman Bahadır Dinçer & Mehmet Hecan In: Third World Quarterly (online first), 09.2020, ca. 20 S. Abstract und Download für SWP: https://doi.org/10.1080/01436597.2020.1811084 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Meinungsumfrage: Jugendliche / junge Menschen (MENA-Region)

Arab Youth Survey 2020 ASDA’A BCW, 10.2020, 74 S. https://www.arabyouthsurvey.com/ Top 10 Findings: https://www.arabyouthsurvey.com/findings.html Volltext: https://www.arabyouthsurvey.com/pdf/downloadwhitepaper/AYS%202020-WP_ENG_0510_Single-Final.pdf @WAO Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Islamismus / Islamisten

Islamisme Karim Ifrak Orient XXI, 30.09.2020, ca. 3 S. https://orientxxi.info/mots-d-islam-22/islamisme,4169 Muslim Brotherhood: The Threat Against the West Michael Arizanti ITCT, 09.2020, 4 S. https://itct.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/09/MB-and-Threat-EU.pdf Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

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> Terrorismus / Jihadismus / -bekämpfung

Jihadist Perspectives on Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Treatise by 'Khayal al-Manhaj' on Fighting for Azerbaijan Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi's Blog, 05.10.2020, ca. 10 S. http://www.aymennjawad.org/2020/10/jihadist-perspectives-on-armenia-azerbaijan Factcheck: Was 'Sayf Abu Bakr' an Islamic State Commander? Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi's Blog, 01.10.2020, ca. 5 S. http://www.aymennjawad.org/2020/10/factcheck-was-sayf-abu-bakr-an-islamic-state Islamismusprävention in Deutschland - Akteure und Strukturen in Bund und Ländern Judith Halbach, Katharina Reinhold, Jana Kärgel, Christian Saßmannshausen "An der Prävention und Bekämpfung von gewaltbereitem Islamismus sind viele Akteure beteiligt - Bund, Länder & Kommunen genauso wie zivilgesellschaftliche Vereine. Aber wer ist wofür zustän-dig und wie arbeiten die Akteure zusammen? ..." Bonn (bpb), 08.2020, 180 S. Übersicht, Download und Bestellung: https://www.bpb.de/shop/buecher/einzelpublikationen/313119/islamismuspraevention-in-deutschland Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Rüstung / Militär (länderbezogen)

Länderberichte: Grunddaten zu Rüstung, Militär und Sicherheit in wichtigen Empfängerlän-dern deutscher Rüstungsexporte ... BICC, 07.2020 (aktual.), jeweils ca. 30 S. Übersicht und Downloads: http://www.ruestungsexport.info/laenderberichte Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Wasser / Konflikte (allg./MENA-Region/Afrika)

An Ancient Practice with a New Face: The Use of Water as a Weapon in Times of Climate Change Christina Kohler HSFK, 08.2020, 4 S. https://www.hsfk.de/fileadmin/HSFK/hsfk_publikationen/Spotlight0920.pdf Droit international de l’eau et conflits interétatiques Khalid Chegraoui , Noureddine Jallal

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PCNS, 09.2020, 20 S. https://www.policycenter.ma/sites/default/files/PP_20-26_Chegraoui%20%26%20Jallal.pdf Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Wirtschaft / Entwicklung (global)

World Economic Outlook, October 2020 - Chapter 2: The Great Lockdown, Dissecting the Economic Impact - Chapter 3: Mitigating Climate Change IMF, 10.2020 Übersicht und Downloads: https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/09/30/world-economic-outlook-october-2020 Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Coronavirus-Krise / COVID-19 (allg./global)

Weltarmutsbericht der Weltbank - Minister Müller: "Corona stoppt Erfolge im Kampf gegen Armut und Hunger, 115 Millionen Menschen zusätzlich in extremer Armut" BMZ, 07.10.2020 http://www.bmz.de/20201007-1 Vgl. Poverty and Shared Prosperity 2020 - Reversals of Fortune The World Bank, 09.2020, 201 S. Übersicht und Download: https://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/poverty-and-shared-prosperity Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

> Coronavirus-Krise / COVID-19 (MENA-Region)

The Pandemic Tips the Balance Between Mosque and State - For Saudi Arabia and Egypt, a Pretext to Crack Down Geneive Abdo and Nourhan Elnahla FA (online), 13.08.2020, ca. 2 S. Preview und Volltext für SWP: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/middle-east/2020-08-13/pandemic-tips-balance-between-mosque-and-state Zurück zum Inhaltsverzeichnis

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Dieser WebMonitor wurde in Zusammenarbeit mit Pelican Mourad erstellt. -- Jürgen Rogalski M.A. Informationsservices Fachreferent Naher/Mittlerer Osten und Afrika Tel. +49 30 88007-318 juergen.rogalski@swp-berlin.org Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik Deutsches Institut für Internationale Politik und Sicherheit Ludwigkirchplatz 3–4, 10719 Berlin www.swp-berlin.org facebook.com/StiftungWissenschaftundPolitik twitter.com/SWPBerlin