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Contents ..............................................................................................................................3

UK executive summary ........................................................................................................ 4

Why monitor bird populations? ............................................................................................ 5

Understanding the bird population indices ........................................................................... 5

Assessing trends ................................................................................................................. 6

1. Native breeding wild bird populations in the UK ............................................................... 8

2. Breeding farmland bird populations in the UK ................................................................ 10

3. Breeding woodland bird populations in the UK .............................................................. 15

4. Breeding water and wetland bird populations in the UK................................................. 20

5. Breeding seabird populations in the UK ......................................................................... 27

6. Wintering waterbird populations in the UK ..................................................................... 30

Main notes: methodological detail, limitations of the indicators and further information ..... 34

Annex A: Trends in bird species, by habitat group, in the UK ............................................ 36

Annex B: Frequently asked questions: .............................................................................. 49

Contents

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Why monitor bird populations? Bird populations have long been considered to provide a good indication of the broad state of wildlife in the UK. This is because they occupy a wide range of habitats and respond to environmental pressures that also operate on other groups of wildlife. In addition, there are considerable long-term data on trends in bird populations, allowing for comparison between the short term and long term. Because they are a well-studied taxonomic group, drivers of change for birds are better understood than for other species groups, which enable better interpretation of any observed changes. Birds also have huge cultural importance and are highly valued as a part of the UK’s natural environment by the general public. However, the bird indicators presented in this publication are not intended, in isolation, as indicators of the health of the natural environment more widely.

It is not practical to determine changes in the actual number of birds for each species in the UK each year, but it is possible and more reliable to assess their status by calculating relative change, based on counts on representative sample plots surveyed as part of national monitoring schemes1.

Trends in bird populations are used by policy makers, government agencies and non-governmental organisations as part of the evidence base with which to assess the effects of environmental management, such as agricultural practices, on bird populations. The trends are also used to assess the effectiveness of environmental interventions intended to address declines, such as agri-environment schemes targeted at farmland birds.

Understanding the bird population indices Individual bird species population trends, based on carefully designed surveys undertaken largely by volunteer experts, are calculated as a series of annual indices. These relate the population in a given year to a ‘baseline’ – the first year that data are available – which is given a value of 100. Thereafter, the index is expressing the population as a percentage of this ‘baseline’.

This annual Defra National Statistics Release presents data trends up to 2018 in populations of common birds (species with a population of at least 500 breeding pairs) that are native to, and breed in, the UK, with trends overall as well as for 4 main habitat groups (see Annex A for a list of birds in each group). The release also presents trends for wintering waterbirds, some of which also breed in the UK. The charts presented combine individual species indices2 into a single indicator to provide an overall trend for each group

1 See ‘Main notes’ at the end for more details of the surveys sources used.2 Using a geometric mean - an average calculated by multiplying a set of index values and taking the nth root,where n is the number of index values. More information can be found in Introduction to the Wild BirdsPopulation Indicator.

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Alongside the overall index, the percentage of species within each indicator that have increased or decreased in the long-term and in the short-term is also shown. This is based on the average rate of annual change over the long or short-term, categorised by how much the population would change if that annual change continued for 25 years. The bar chart illustrates the percentage of species falling into each category:

Strong increase: population increase of 100% or more

Weak increase: more than 33% but less than 100% increase

Little change: between a 25% decrease and a 33% increase

Weak decline: less than 50% but greater than 25% decrease

Strong decline: population decrease of 50% or more

These thresholds are asymmetrical to represent symmetrical proportional change in an index, i.e. the opposite of a 50% decline is a doubling (a 100% increase), not a 50% increase. These thresholds are derived from those used in the Birds of Conservation Concern5 status assessment for birds in the UK.

The bird population indices have been compiled in conjunction with the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB), the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO), the Wildfowl and Wetlands Trust (WWT) and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC).

5 See the BTO website (https://www.bto.org/our-science/projects/birdtrack/bird-recording/birds-conservation-concern)

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2. Breeding farmland bird populations in the UK Farmland6 refers to the 75% of land in the UK which is devoted to agriculture. Farmland also provides semi-natural habitats such as hedgerows and field margins that provide food and shelter to birds.

In 2018 the UK farmland bird index was 45% of its 1970 value. The majority of this decline occurred between the late 1970s and the 1980s largely due to the negative impact of rapid changes in farmland management during this period. The decline has continued at a slower rate more recently; the smoothed index significantly decreased by 6% between 2012 and 2017.

Figure 2: Breeding farmland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2018

Notes:

i) figures in brackets show the number of species,

ii) graph shows unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and smoothed trend (solid line) with its 95% confidence interval (shaded area).

6 The farmland bird indicator relates more to the lowland arable/pastoral component of farmland which is less than 75%.

10

Long term

Since 1970, 21% of species showed a weak increase, 16% showed little change and 63% showed either a weak or a strong decline.

Short term

Some species are recovering over the short-term period between 2012 and 2017, 32% of species increased, 42% showed little change and 26% declined.

Factors affecting farmland bird populations

The large historical declines in the abundance of many farmland birds have a number of known and potential causes. For a large part, declines have been caused by the changes in farming practices that have taken place since the 1950s and 1960s, such as the loss of mixed farming, a move from spring to autumn sowing of arable crops, change in grassland management (e.g. a switch from hay to silage production), increased pesticide and fertiliser use, and the removal of non-cropped features such as hedgerows. The rate of these changes, which resulted in the loss of suitable nesting and suitable feeding habitats, and a reduction in available food, was greatest during the late 1970s and early 1980s, the period during which many farmland bird populations declined most rapidly. However, some generalist species such as woodpigeon have benefitted from increased availability of their food throughout the winter owing to the autumn sowing of crops.

Some farming practices continue to have negative impacts on bird populations, but most farmers can and do take positive steps to conserve birds on their land. In particular, a number of incentive schemes encourage improved environmental stewardship in farming, with some measures specifically designed to help stabilise and recover farmland bird populations. These include the provision of over-wintered stubbles and planted wild bird crop covers to provide seed in the winter, uncropped margins on arable fields and sympathetic management of hedgerows. Changes in numbers experienced by some species may, to a lesser extent, be further driven by other pressures. For example, there is evidence of an adverse impact from disease for some species, most notably greenfinch.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement ‘Annex 1.03 Evidence Statement for C5a Farmland Birds’.

Species breakdown

The farmland bird index contains data for 19 species. The long-term decline of the farmland bird indicator in the UK has been driven mainly by the decline of those species that are restricted to, or highly dependent on, farmland habitats (the ‘specialists’). Between

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Figure 2c: Breeding generalist farmland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2018

Notes:

i) figures in brackets show the number of species,

ii) graph shows unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and smoothed trend (solid line) with its 95% confidence interval (shaded area).

Long term

Three generalist species have declined over the long-term period; yellow wagtail by 70%, greenfinch by 60% and kestrel by 46%. While 2 species (rook and reed bunting) have not changed substantially overall, 2 species have increased; woodpigeon and jackdaw populations have more than doubled relative to 1970 levels.

Short term

The smoothed index shows that between 2012 and 2017 generalists declined significantly by 8%. However only one of the seven species decreased over this short-time period; greenfinch by 46%. Greenfinch has been strongly impacted by the disease trichomonosis, which may also have affected other species such as turtle dove, in recent years. One species has shown signs of recent improvement, the reed bunting, which increased by 16%.

14

3. Breeding woodland bird populations in the UKWoodland covers 13% of the UK’s land area, providing trees and other vegetation suitable for nesting, foraging opportunities and cover from predators.

In 2018 the UK woodland bird index was 29% below its 1970 value. The greatest decline occurred between the early 1980s and the early 1990s. The index has been more stable, at around 80% of the 1970 numbers since 1995, although more recently the smoothed index decreased significantly by 8% between 2012 and 2017.

Figure 3: Breeding woodland birds in the UK, 1970 to 2018

Notes:

i) figures in brackets show the number of species,

ii) graph shows unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and smoothed trend (solid line) with its 95% confidence interval (shaded area).

Long term

Since 1970, 22% of species increased, 46% showed little change and 32% declined, the majority of the latter showing a strong decline.

Short term

Over the short-term period between 2012 and 2017, 16% of species increased, 32% showed little change and just over half (51%) declined.

15

Factors affecting woodland birds

The declines in woodland birds have several known and potential causes, such as a lack of woodland management (including the cessation of traditional practices such as coppicing) and increased deer browsing pressure, both of which result in a reduced diversity of woodland structure and reduced availability of suitable nesting and foraging habitats. Changes in farmland management, such as the removal of hedgerows, adversely impacted many of the species in the indicator which have substantial populations outside of woodland e.g. in farmland and gardens. In addition, several declining woodland birds are long-distance migrants, and a decline in the extent or quality of habitats used outside of the UK in the non-breeding season (in stop-over sites or African wintering areas) may be a significant factor affecting these species. Positive factors include the increasing area of woodland cover and milder winters potentially having a beneficial impact for some species.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement ‘Annex 1.04 Evidence Statement for C5b Woodland Birds’.

Species breakdown

The woodland bird index contains data for 37 species. The relatively flat trend for all woodland birds from the mid-1990s masks different underlying trends for specialist species, those which are highly dependent on woodland habitats, and generalist species, which are found in a wide range of habitats, including woodland.

In 2018, the woodland specialists index was 47% lower than in 1970, while the index for woodland generalists was 3% higher than in 1970. The smoothed trend shows a significant long-term decline of 45% for specialists and a non-significant 4% increase for generalists (figure 3a).

16

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Notes:

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Short term

The smoothed index for generalists shows a non-significant 2% increase between 2012 and 2017. Four out of 12 species decreased over this short-term period; chaffinch by 22%, tawny owl by 10%, great tit by 9% and blue tit by 8%. Three species increased strongly; wren by 34%, song thrush by 22% and robin by 18% over the short-term period of 2012 to 2017.

19

4. Breeding water and wetland bird populations in the UK Water and wetlands7 include rivers, lakes, ponds, reedbeds, coastal marshes, other wet grasslands, and lowland raised bogs, together totalling 3% of the UK’s area and providing important habitats for birds.

Produced largely using the population trends from surveys in wetland habitats, the water and wetland bird index has remained fairly stable for most of the period since data collection started in 1975 but has been lowest in the last decade. In 2018 the water and wetland bird index was 17% lower than in 1975. However, more recently the smoothed index increased, but not significantly, by 3% between 2012 and 2017.

Figure 4: Breeding water and wetland birds in the UK, 1975 to 2018

Notes:

i) figures in brackets show the number of species,

ii) graph shows unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and smoothed trend (solid line) with its 95% confidence interval (shaded area).

7 Species included in the wetland indicator are those defined as having a positive association with waterways or wetlands, but in practice, these overlap markedly with those classified as ‘lowland wetland’ species and also include some upland birds and those also associated with farmland, for example reed bunting and yellow wagtail.

20

Long term

Over the long term, 32% of species increased, 36% showed little change and 32% declined, with more species exhibiting a weak rather than a strong change.

Short term

Over the short-term period between 2012 and 2017, 35% of species increased, 31% showed little change and 35% declined.

Factors affecting water and wetland bird populations

The historical declines in breeding waders resulted from land management changes such as drainage, the intensification of grassland management and the conversion of coastal and floodplain grazing marshes to arable land. Where populations persist in small fragments of high-quality habitat, their nests and young can be vulnerable to predation, which is currently thought to be limiting the recovery of several species of breeding wader. However, a range of species, particularly those associated with standing water bodies, have benefitted from habitat creation, particularly from the restoration of post-extraction gravel pits. Additionally, there has been a net positive impact from improved survival rates due to the trend towards milder winters.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement ‘Annex 1.05 Evidence Statement for C5c Wetland Birds’.

Species breakdown

The 26 species of bird included in the water and wetland bird index can be split into 4 categories for producing sub-habitat indicators. Although the index for all wetland and waterways species shows a relatively flat trend, this masks underlying and marked differences between sub-habitat indicators (figure 4a). When interpreting these trends, it should be borne in mind that each sub-habitat trend is derived from relatively few species’ trends.

21

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Figure 4e: Populations of wet grassland birds in the UK, 1975 to 2018

Notes:

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Long term

Over the long term, although some wildfowl (mute swan and teal) have shown an increase, yellow wagtail (in wetland habitats) and snipe have declined strongly by 97% and 79% respectively.

Short term

Over the short term since 2012, yellow wagtail continues to decline strongly by 35% along waterways whereas lapwing numbers show a weak decline of 8%. In contrast the index for snipe has shown a strong 36% increase over this 5-year period. Little egret, which was included for the first time in 2006 and therefore not assessed over the long-term period, has increased by 53% since 2012.

26

5. Breeding seabird populations in the UK The breeding seabird index has now been updated with data up to and including 2018. This was after the Seabird Monitoring Programme Steering Group made the decision to put the analysis and publication of the annual SMP report on hold in 2016 enabling staff time to be dedicated to the breeding seabird census, Seabirds Count. These figures are based on very recently updated data and hence the presentation of smoothed trends and assessments of change based on smoothed trends will be carried out subsequently.

The UK coast is over 30,000km long, and consists of a wide variety of habitats such as sea cliffs, sand dunes, shingle ridges, machair and intertidal areas. Additionally, the area of sea around the UK amounts to three and a half times the land area of the UK (not including overseas territories).

In 2018, the breeding seabird index in the UK was 28% lower than in 1986, slightly above the lowest level ever recorded (of 29% lower than 1986, recorded in 2013). Despite fluctuations, the indicator was largely flat from 1986 until the mid-2000s when seabird numbers started to decline. However, more recently the unsmoothed breeding seabird index has increased by 7% between 2012 and 2017.

Figure 5: Populations of seabirds in the UK, 1986 to 2018

Note:

i) figures in brackets show the number of species.

ii) graph shows unsmoothed trend (dashed line) - no smoothed trend is available for seabirds, but this will be available in future publications.

27

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The seabird index in the UK in 2018 continues to exhibit a different pattern to the England index8. One reason for this difference is species composition. Some species breed only in Scotland whereas others are more widespread but have the bulk of their populations in northern parts of the British Isles, and there may be insufficient data to generate an England-only trend. In addition, trends for some species may differ between the 2 countries.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement ‘Annex 1.06 Evidence Statement for C5d Seabirds’.

8 The England seabird trend can be seen in the Defra National Statistics Release, Wild bird populations in England, 1970-2018, also published today.

29

6. Wintering waterbird populations in the UKThe term waterbird is used to describe all birds that inhabit or depend on water; this chapter is about waterbirds that over-winter in the UK, some of which also breed here 9.

In the winter of 2017/18 the wintering waterbird index was 82% higher than in 1975/76. The index peaked in the late 1990s, and has largely declined since, with the smoothed index showing a 3% decrease in the short term between 2011/12 and 2016/17.

Figure 6: Wintering water birds in the UK, 1975/76 to 2017/18

Notes:

i) figures in brackets show the number of species,

ii) graph shows unsmoothed trend (dashed line) and smoothed trend (solid line). Data from wintering waterbirds monitoring schemes are based largely on full counts at colonies or at wetland and coastal sites of markedly varying size. This means that bootstrapping methods cannot be applied reliably and hence trends for these groups are currently presented without confidence intervals.

iii) the number of species in each sub indicator do not sum to the number in the all-species indicator because 4 species are included in all wintering waterbirds but are neither wildfowl nor wader. These are 2 grebes (little and great-crested), one rail species (coot) and cormorant. These are in 3 different taxonomic groups, none large enough to warrant a separate indicator.

9 Not all of the wintering waterbirds in this chapter are included in the all breeding birds index, only those which also breed in the UK and for which breeding trends are available. In Annex A, those species that overlap are included under both.

30

Long term

Since 1975/76, 46% of the 46 species in the indicator increased, 41% showed little change and 13% declined, all of which showed a weak decline.

Short term

Over the short-term period between the winters of 2011/12 and 2016/17, 30% of species increased, 26% showed little change, and 43% declined.

Factors affecting wintering wetland bird populations

Populations of wintering wetland birds are affected by a range of factors including conditions in the high latitude countries where they breed, with breeding productivity increasing for species including black-tailed godwit but decreasing for others such as Greenland white-fronted geese. There is good evidence of a strong climate change impact on the indicator in recent years, with milder winters leading to wintering ranges of some species, such as ringed plovers, shifting away from the UK. In addition, local changes, such as wetland creation and changes in agricultural management, have had an impact on waterbird populations within the UK.

For more information about the evidence for this indicator, see the evidence statement ‘Annex 1.07 Evidence Statement for C5e Wintering Waterbirds’.

Species breakdown

There are 46 species, races and populations of bird included in the wintering waterbird indicator. These can be split into subcategories of wildfowl (ducks, geese and swans) and waders (sandpipers, plovers and their close relatives) which display slightly different trends. Overall, the smoothed wildfowl index has more than doubled (116% increase) and the wader index has increased 56% since 1975/76. However, both peaked in the late 1990s and have declined subsequently; between 2011/12 and 2016/17, the smoothed index for wildfowl declined by 6%, however the smoothed index for waders showed a small 1% increase.

31

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33

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Annex A: Trends in bird species, by habitat10 group, in the UK The tables below list the species that are included in each indicator. Percentage changes are based on smoothed data, except in the case of seabirds, for which no smoothed trend data are available. Annual percentage change represents the rate of change over the time period shown, allowing the assessment of strong or weak to be made. ‘Strong’, ‘weak’, ‘little change’ is determined by how much the population would change if the average rate of annual change (over the specified period, long or short term) continued for 25 years.

Farmland (19)

Generalists (7)

Long-term change (1970-2017) Short-term change (2012-2017)

Species Long-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Short-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Greenfinch (Chloris chloris) -60 -1.93 weak decline -46 -11.74 strong decline Jackdaw (Corvus monedula) 148 1.95 weak increase 3 0.58 little change Kestrel (Falco tinnunculus) -46 -1.29 weak decline 1 0.18 little change Reed Bunting (Emberiza schoeniclus) -27 -0.68 little change 16 2.97 strong increase Rook (Corvus frugilegus) 3 0.06 little change -5 -1.03 little change Woodpigeon (Columba palumbus) 123 1.73 weak increase -2 -0.49 little change Yellow Wagtail (Motacilla flava) -70 -2.5 weak decline -5 -1.04 little change

10 Habitat classifications are generally based on ‘Gibbons, D.W., Reid, J.B. & Chapman, R. A. 1993. The New Atlas of Breeding Birds in Britain and Ireland: 1988-1991. London: T. & A.D. Poyser.

36

Specialists (12) Long-term change (1970-2017) Short-term change (2012-2017)

Species Long-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Short-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Corn Bunting (Emberiza calandra) -89 -4.55 strong decline 12 2.32 weak increase Goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) 188 2.28 weak increase 16 3.03 strong increase Grey Partridge (Perdix perdix) -92 -5.35 strong decline -19 -4.06 strong decline Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus) -63 -2.11 weak decline 5 0.89 little change Linnet (Carduelis cannabina) -53 -1.61 weak decline 9 1.71 weak increase Skylark (Alauda arvensis) -57 -1.78 weak decline 6 1.16 weak increase Starling (Sturnus vulgaris) -82 -3.54 strong decline -3 -0.55 little change Stock Dove (Columba oenas) 123 1.72 weak increase 18 3.39 strong increase Tree Sparrow (Passer montanus) -90 -4.84 strong decline -4 -0.72 little change Turtle Dove (Streptopelia turtur) -98 -7.94 strong decline -51 -13.3 strong decline Whitethroat (Sylvia communis) -14 -0.32 little change -15 -3.27 strong decline Yellowhammer (Emberiza citrinella) -58 -1.84 weak decline -9 -1.83 weak decline

37

Woodland (37)

Generalists (12) Long-term change (1970-2017) Short-term change (2012-2017)

Species Long-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Short-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Blackbird (Turdus merula) -14 -0.32 little change 3 0.6 little change Blue Tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) 18 0.35 little change -8 -1.55 weak decline Bullfinch (Pyrrhula pyrrhula) -37 -0.99 little change 4 0.83 little change Chaffinch (Fringilla coelebs) 5 0.11 little change -22 -4.95 strong decline Dunnock (Prunella modularis) -31 -0.77 little change 0 -0.06 little change Great Tit (Parus major) 72 1.16 weak increase -9 -1.84 weak decline Lesser Whitethroat (Sylvia curruca) 21 0.41 little change 6 1.11 little change Long-tailed Tit (Aegithalos caudatus) 94 1.42 weak increase -5 -0.95 little change Robin (Erithacus rubecula) 58 0.97 little change 18 3.29 strong increase Song Thrush (Turdus philomelos) -47 -1.36 weak decline 22 4.05 strong increase Tawny Owl (Strix aluco) -38 -1 little change -10 -2.09 weak decline Wren (Troglodytes troglodytes) 71 1.15 little change 34 5.96 strong increase

Specialists (25) Long-term change (1970-2017) Short-term change (2012-2017)

Species Long-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Short-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Blackcap (Sylvia atricapilla) 293 2.96 strong increase 4 0.81 little change Chiffchaff (Phylloscopus collybita) 110 1.59 weak increase 9 1.82 weak increase Coal tit (Periparus ater) 16 0.31 little change -12 -2.51 weak decline Garden warbler (Sylvia borin) -14 -0.32 little change -14 -3.07 strong decline

38

Goldcrest (Regulus regulus) -16 -0.36 little change 14 2.67 weak increase Great spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos major) 351 3.25 strong increase -3 -0.68 little change Green woodpecker (Picus viridis) 88 1.35 weak increase -9 -1.96 weak decline Jay (Garrulus glandarius) 7 0.14 little change -5 -1.04 little change Lesser spotted woodpecker (Dendrocopos minor) -87 -4.23 strong decline -37 -8.72 strong decline Marsh tit (Poecile palustris) -77 -3.04 strong decline -22 -4.9 strong decline Nightingale (Luscinia megarhynchos) -62 -4.34 strong decline -38 -9.1 strong decline Nuthatch (Sitta europaea) 264 2.78 weak increase 3 0.68 little change Lesser redpoll (Carduelis cabaret) -86 -4.13 strong decline -7 -1.5 weak decline Redstart (Phoenicurus phoenicurus) 34 0.62 little change -16 -3.53 strong decline Sparrowhawk (Accipiter nisus) 68 1.11 little change -18 -3.9 strong decline Spotted flycatcher (Muscicapa striata) -87 -4.21 strong decline 5 1.02 little change Tree pipit (Anthus trivialis) -73 -2.77 strong decline -9 -1.84 weak decline Treecreeper (Certhia familiaris) -14 -0.32 little change -4 -0.88 little change Willow tit (Poecile montana) -94 -5.89 strong decline -17 -3.66 strong decline Willow warbler (Phylloscopus trochilus) -45 -1.26 weak decline -13 -2.68 weak decline Pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleuca) -42 -2.48 weak decline 10 2 weak increase Wood warbler (Phylloscopus sibilatrix)a -63 -4.38 strong decline -3 -0.67 little change Common crossbill (Loxia curvirostra)a -12 -0.6 little change -49 -12.59 strong decline Siskin (Carduelis spinus) 33 1.31 weak increase -22 -4.74 strong decline Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) -90 -4.77 strong decline -11 -2.22 weak decline a Data for the long-term assessment are from 1995 to 2017

39

Water and wetland birds (26)

Birds of fast flowing water (4) Long-term change (1975-2017) Short-term change (2012-2017)

Species Long-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Short-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Common sandpiper (Actitis hypoleucos) -48 -1.56 weak decline -5 -1 little change Dipper (Cinclus cinclus) -21 -0.55 little change 13 2.42 weak increase Goosander (Mergus merganser)b 148 2.55 weak increase 30 5.34 strong increase Grey wagtail (Motacilla cinerea) -40 -1.19 weak decline 40 6.95 strong increase b Data for the long-term assessment are from 1981 to 2017

Birds of reedbeds (4) Long-term change (1975-2017) Short-term change (2012-2017)

Species Long-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Short-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Cetti's warbler (Cettia cetti)c Reed bunting (Emberiza schoeniclus) Reed warbler (Acrocephalus scirpaceus)d Sedge warbler (Acrocephalus schoenobaenus)

693

-67

86

-49

7.68

-2.61

1.74

-1.61

strong increase

weak decline

weak increase

weak decline

47

-12

0

-26

8.01

-2.51

0.04

-5.92

strong increase

weak decline

little change

strong decline c Data for the long-term assessment are from 1989 to 2017 d Data for the long-term assessment are from 1981 to 2017 Birds of slow and standing water (6)

Long-term change (1975-2017) Short-term change (2012-2017)

40

Long-term Annual Short-term Annual Species percentage percentage Trend percentage percentage Trend

change change change change Coot (Fulica atra) 53 1.01 little change -19 -4.2 strong decline Great crested grebe (Podiceps cristatus)e -14 -0.66 little change -12 -2.5 weak decline Little grebe (Tachybaptus ruficollis) -24 -0.66 little change 19 3.47 strong increase Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) 198 2.63 weak increase -7 -1.35 weak decline

Moorhen (Gallinula chloropus) -33 -0.95 little change -3 -0.57 little change Tufted duck (Aythya fuligula) 79 1.39 weak increase -12 -2.43 weak decline e Data for the long-term assessment are from 1995 to 2017

Birds of Wet Grassland (8) Long-term change (1975-2017) Short-term change (2012-2017)

Long-term Annual Short-term Annual Species percentage percentage Trend percentage percentage Trend

change change change change Curlew (Numenius arquata)f -19 -0.58 little change -2 -0.47 little change Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus)f -56 -2.22 weak decline -8 -1.76 weak decline Little egret (Egretta garzetta) N/A N/A N/A 53 8.91 strong increase Mute swan (Cygnus olor) 93 1.58 weak increase 3 0.6 little change Redshank (Tringa totanus) -60 -2.15 weak decline -4 -0.88 little change Snipe (Gallinago gallinago) -79 -3.61 strong decline 36 6.28 strong increase Teal (Anas crecca)g 55 2 weak increase 30 5.42 strong increase Yellow wagtail (Motacilla flava) -97 -8.15 strong decline -35 -8.25 strong decline f Data for the long-term assessment are from 1980 to 2017 g Data for the long-term assessment are from 1995 to 2017

Other (4)

41

Long-term change (1975-2017) Short-term change (2012-2017)

Species Long-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Short-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Grey heron (Ardea cinerea) -16 1.19 little change -1 -1.44 little change Kingfisher (Alcedo atthis) -19 0.76 little change 3 3.3 little change Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) 64 0.01 weak increase -7 -0.01 weak decline Sand martin (Riparia riparia)h 34 0.01 little change 18 0.03 strong increase h Data for the long-term assessment are from 1978 to 2017

42

Seabirds (13)

Long-term change (1986-2017) Short-term change (2012-2017)

Species Long-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Short-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Arctic skua (Stercorarius parasiticus) -82 -5.4 strong decline -15 -3.14 strong decline Black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) -57 -2.71 weak decline 9 1.79 weak increase Common guillemot (Uria aalge) 37 1.01 little change 5 1.06 little change European shag (Phalacrocorax artistotelis) -33 -1.29 weak decline -1 -0.25 little change Great black-backed gull (Larus marinus) -15 -0.52 little change 33 5.8 strong increase Great cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo) 9 0.29 little change 32 5.76 strong increase Herring gull (Larus argentatus) -59 -2.82 strong decline -29 -6.59 strong decline Northern fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis) -30 -1.13 little change -3 -0.68 little change Common tern (Sterna hirundo) 5 0.16 little change 41 7.05 strong increase Sandwich tern (Sterna sandvicensis) -2 -0.05 little change 4 0.76 little change Little tern (Sternula albifrons) -30 -1.16 weak decline -30 -6.76 strong decline Arctic tern (Sterna paradisaea) 42 1.13 little change 44 7.52 strong increase Razorbill (Alca torda) 107 2.37 weak increase 46 7.85 strong increase

43

Wintering waterbirds (46)

Wildfowl (27) Long-term change (1975/76-2016/17) Short-term change (2011/12-2016/17)

Species Long-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Short-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Mute swan (Cygnus olor) 188 2.61 weak increase -6 -1.19 weak decline Bewick's swan (Cygnus columbianus) -46 -1.48 weak decline -49 -12.69 strong decline Whooper swan (Cygnus cygnus) 745 5.34 strong increase 0 0.07 little change Pink-footed goose (Anser brachyrhynchus) 561 4.71 strong increase 71 11.27 strong increase White-fronted goose, European (Anser albifrons albifrons) -58 -2.07 weak decline -35 -8.32 strong decline White-fronted goose, Greenland (Anser albifrons flavirostris)i 28 0.75 little change -6 -1.13 little change Greylag goose, Icelandic (Anser anser) 42 0.86 little change -1 -0.27 little change Greylag goose, British/Irish (Anser anser anser) 1,140 6.33 strong increase 4 0.82 little change Barnacle goose, greenland population (Branta leucopsis)j 171 3.77 strong increase 30 5.38 strong increase Barnacle goose, Svalbard population (Branta leucopsis) 587 4.81 strong increase 23 4.26 strong increase Brent goose, dark-bellied (Branta bernicla bernicla) 174 2.49 weak increase 7 1.27 weak increase Brent goose, Nearctic light-bellied (Branta bernicla)k 65 1.81 weak increase -15 -3.19 strong decline Brent goose, Svalbard light-bellied (Branta bernicla hrota) 849 5.64 strong increase -37 -8.75 strong decline Shelduck (Tadorna tadorna) 41 0.84 little change -2 -0.36 little change Wigeon (Anas penelope) 164 2.4 weak increase 14 2.67 weak increase Gadwall (Anas strepera) 1,379 6.79 strong increase -5 -1.04 little change Teal (Anas crecca) 180 2.54 weak increase 4 0.77 little change

44

Mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) -23 -0.65 little change -14 -2.89 strong decline Pintail (Anas acuta) -6 -0.14 little change 10 1.96 weak increase Shoveler (Anas clypeata) 135 2.11 weak increase 27 4.97 strong increase Pochard (Aythya ferina) -59 -2.15 weak decline -31 -7.24 strong decline Tufted duck (Aythya fuligula) 57 1.1 little change -5 -1 little change Scaup (Aythya marila) -53 -1.81 weak decline -14 -3.05 strong decline Eider, except shetland (Somateria mollissima)l -32 -1.41 weak decline -10 -2.01 weak decline Goldeneye (Bucephala clangula) -1 -0.02 little change -22 -4.96 strong decline Red-breasted merganser (Mergus serrator) 50 0.99 little change -18 -3.78 strong decline Goosander (Mergus merganser) 46 0.94 little change -12 -2.42 weak decline i Data for the long-term assessment are from 1982/83 to 2016/17 j Data for the long-term assessment are from 1988/89 to 2016/17 k Data for the long-term assessment are from 1987/88 to 2016/17 l Data for the long-term assessment are from 1986/87 to 2016/17

Wader (15) Long-term change (1975/76-2016/17) Short-term change (2011/12-2016/17)

Species Long-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Short-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) 2 0.04 little change -8 -1.61 weak decline Avocet (Recurvirostra avosetta)m 557 7.22 strong increase 6 1.25 weak increase Ringed plover (Charadrius hiaticula) -36 -1.07 little change 3 0.52 little change Golden plover (Pluvialis apricaria) 169 2.44 weak increase 29 5.2 strong increase Grey plover (Pluvialis squatarola) 138 2.14 weak increase -7 -1.42 weak decline Lapwing (Vanellus vanellus) 82 1.47 weak increase 8 1.56 weak increase Knot (Calidris canutus) 4 0.09 little change -6 -1.19 weak decline Sanderling (Calidris alba) 69 1.28 weak increase 12 2.23 weak increase

45

Purple sandpiper (Calidris maritima) 17 0.38 little change -11 -2.2 weak decline Dunlin (Calidris alpina) -47 -1.54 weak decline 0 -0.01 little change Black-tailed godwit (Limosa limosa) 765 5.4 strong increase 23 4.15 strong increase Bar-tailed godwit (Limosa lapponica) -5 -0.12 little change -13 -2.8 strong decline Curlew (Numenius arquata) 10 0.23 little change -15 -3.09 strong decline Redshank (Tringa totanus) -1 -0.03 little change 3 0.57 little change Turnstone (Arenaria interpres) 0 0.01 little change -6 -1.24 weak decline m Data for the long-term assessment are from 1988/89 to 2016/17

Other (4) Long-term change (1975/76-2016/17) Short-term change (2011/12-2016/17)

Long-term Annual Short-term Annual Species percentage percentage Trend percentage percentage Trend

change change change change Coot (Fulica atra)n 2 0.07 little change -15 -3.13 strong decline Cormorant (Phalacrocorax carbo)o 86 2.24 weak increase 23 4.27 strong increase Great crested grebe (Podiceps cristatus)n 39 1.06 little change 3 0.66 little change Little grebe (Tachybaptus ruficollis)p 115 2.87 strong increase 14 2.66 weak increase n Data for the long-term assessment are from 1984/85 to 2016/17 o Data for the long-term assessment are from 1987/88 to 2016/17 p Data for the long-term assessment are from 1988/89 to 2016/17

46

Other birds included in the all species index (38)

The all-species line is comprised of all 130 available population trends for widespread breeding species in the UK, from all landscape types. It excludes rare species (with less than 500 breeding pairs) and all species for which no UK trend information is available.

The species composition of all-species index (130 species) includes:

• 19 farmland* species trends (i.e. those in the farmland bird index); • 37 woodland bird species (i.e. those in the woodland bird index); • 26 breeding wetland* species (i.e. those in the breeding birds of water and wetlands index); • 13 seabirds, and; • 38 other species trends, including birds of urban areas, heathlands, uplands, coasts and species with no strong habitat preferences (generalists). Some of these birds are also included under wintering waterbirds but are included here as they also breed in the UK and are included in the all-species index.

* Note that trends for 3 species (yellow wagtail, reed bunting and lapwing) are included in 2 separate habitat-specific indicators (farmland and breeding wetland) due to their reliance on both of these habitats. The same trends as used in the farmland bird indicator are used for these 3 species in the all-species indicator to avoid duplication.

Long-term change (1970-2017) Short-term change (2012-2017)

Species Long-term percentage change

Annual percentage change

Trend Short-term percentage

change

Annual percentage

change Trend

Avocet (Recurvirostra avosetta) 403 6.17 strong increase 24 4.44 strong increase Bearded tit (Panurus biarmicus) 31 0.68 little change 35 6.26 strong increase Black-headed gull (Chroicocephalus ridibundus) 38 0.69 little change 16 2.97 strong increase Buzzard (Buteo buteo) 501 3.89 strong increase 10 1.85 weak increase Carrion crow (Corvus corone) 98 1.47 weak increase 1 0.13 little change Cirl bunting (Emberiza cirlus) 90 4.11 strong increase 17 3.26 strong increase Collared dove (Streptopelia decaocto) 764 4.69 strong increase -12 -2.56 weak decline Corncrake (Crex crex) -61 -1.96 weak decline -20 -4.36 strong decline Cuckoo (Cuculus canorus) -56 -1.71 weak decline 13 2.44 weak increase Dartford warbler (Sylvia undata) 223 2.83 strong increase 165 21.52 strong increase

47

Firecrest (Regulus ignicapilla) N/A N/A N/A 61 9.93 strong increase Gadwall (Anas strepera) 213 5.33 strong increase 77 12.07 strong increase Golden plover (Pluvialis apricaria) -5 -0.25 little change 11 2.08 weak increase Greylag goose (Anser anser) 192 4.57 strong increase 2 0.49 little change Hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) -8 -0.32 little change -15 -3.19 strong decline Hobby (Falco subbuteo) -15 -0.76 little change -18 -3.85 strong decline Hooded crow (Corvus cornix) 4 0.17 little change -3 -0.63 little change House martin (Delichon urbicum) -18 -0.88 little change -13 -2.66 weak decline House sparrow (Passer domesticus) -71 -2.63 weak decline -2 -0.40 little change Magpie (Pica pica) 94 1.42 weak increase -2 -0.43 little change Meadow pipit (Anthus pratensis) -36 -0.96 little change 8 1.54 weak increase Mediterranean gull (Larus melanocephalus) N/A N/A N/A 36 6.42 strong increase Mistle thrush (Turdus viscivorus) -55 -1.71 weak decline 8 1.64 weak increase Peregrine (Falco peregrinus) 206 2.41 weak increase 2 0.44 little change Pied/White wagtail (Motacilla alba) 27 0.50 little change 3 0.61 little change Pochard (Aythya ferina) 48 1.64 weak increase 18 3.43 strong increase Quail (Coturnix coturnix) -23 -0.94 little change -44 -10.91 strong decline Raven (Corvus corax) 38 1.48 weak increase 13 2.41 weak increase Red grouse (Lagopus lagopus scotica) 26 1.06 little change 19 3.63 strong increase Red kite (Milvus milvus) 463 14.21 strong increase 75 11.89 strong increase Red-breasted merganser (Mergus serrator) 371 3.35 strong increase -30 -6.91 strong decline Shelduck (Tadorna tadorna) -9 -0.41 little change 2 0.36 little change Shoveler (Anas clypeata) N/A N/A N/A 38 6.62 strong increase Stonechat (Saxicola rubicola) 87 2.89 strong increase 67 10.79 strong increase Swallow (Hirundo rustica) -6 -0.14 little change -23 -5.16 strong decline Swift (Apus apus) -57 -3.76 strong decline -29 -6.55 strong decline Whinchat (Saxicola rubetra) -56 -3.62 strong decline -3 -0.52 little change Woodlark (Lullula arborea) 58 1.91 weak increase 6 1.21 weak increase

48

Annex B: Frequently asked questions: Wild Bird Populations in the UK, 1970 – 2018

Why monitor bird populations?

Bird populations have long been considered to provide a good indication of the broad state of wildlife in the UK. This is because they occupy a wide range of habitats and respond to environmental pressures that also operate on other groups of wildlife. In addition, there are considerable long-term data on trends in bird populations, allowing for comparisons between the short term and long term. Because they are a well-studied taxonomic group, drivers of change for birds are better understood than for other species groups, which enables better interpretation of any observed changes.

Which species of birds are included in the indices?

There are 4 main habitat groups representing farmland, woodland, water and wetland and seabird habitats. Species within each habitat type are included in the indices if they have a population of at least 500 breeding pairs and are common birds that are native to, and breed in the UK; the trends included refer to breeding populations (except for those used in the winter waterbird indicator). There is also an all-species indicator where all of the species included in the farmland, woodland, wetland and seabird indicators are included here, as well as species associated with urban habitats (e.g. collared dove, house martin), with uplands (e.g. hen harrier, red grouse), with heathlands (e.g. Dartford warbler, hobby) and species that occupy a range of habitats (e.g. peregrine, black-headed gull).

What are 'unsmoothed' and 'smoothed' indices and why are they used?

Two trends are referred to in the text: the unsmoothed indices show year-to-year fluctuation in populations, reflecting the observed changes in the survey results, and smoothed trends, which are used to formally assess the statistical significance of change over time. Smoothed trends are used for both long and short-term assessments as they reduce the short-term peaks and troughs resulting from, for example, year-to-year weather and sampling variations.

What is the difference between a 'long-term' and 'short-term' trend?

There are no differences between the way the trends are calculated as they both use the smoothed indices, it is only that in most cases the long-term trend goes back to the earliest data point, usually 1970, whereas the short-term trend looks at the most recent 5 years, that is year 6 to year 1.

49

Why should users not place too much reliance on short-term changes from one year to another?

Looking at the data from year to year may include weather effect and sampling variations which would not provide reliable data as the trend is not over a longer time frame.

Why use indices rather than absolute numbers?

It is not possible to determine changes in the actual numbers of birds for each species in the UK each year, however it is possible to estimate the relative change, from counts on sample plots surveyed as part of a range of national monitoring schemes.

How are the individual species indices combined into a single indicator and why is it done?

The creation of the all species wild bird indicator involves two steps: (1) the production of annual population indices for the individual species for which there is trend data, and (2) the amalgamation of these individual indices into a single aggregate index.

1. Indices for individual species: These are generated by a statistical analysis of representative sites resurveyed year after year (e.g. in the Breeding Bird Survey) or based on annual or periodic estimates of total populations (e.g. Heronries Survey). The population trends for each species are made comparable by expressing them as indices relative to ‘100’ in the start year. Thus each annual index shows relative changes in population size from the start year: a rise to 200 in the index reflects a doubling in numbers, a decline to 50 a halving.

2. Amalgamating into a single index: The all species index is calculated as the geometric mean of all the individual indices, with no weightings - so each species has the same relative effect on the indicator. The geometric mean is used to ensure that a doubling in the population index of one species (e.g. 100 to 200) is balanced by a halving (e.g. 100 to 50). The geometric mean of 200 and 50 is 100.

The composite all species indicator shows the year-to-year fluctuations in population trends across all species that can be included, reflecting the observed changes in the annual survey results. Alongside this is the smoothed version of the trend, which is used to formally assess the statistical significance of change over time. The smoothed trend is derived using a published statistical methodology and is used for assessments as it reduces the short-term peaks and troughs resulting from, for example, year-to-year impacts of weather and sampling variations. The index is considered to give reliable medium to long-term trends but strong reliance should not be attached to short term changes from one year to the next.

What is the 'geometric mean', how is it calculated and why is it used?

50

The geometric mean is an average. It is calculated by multiplying a set of index values and taking the nth root, where n is the number of index values. More information can be found in Introduction to the Wild Birds Population Indicator. The geometric mean is used to ensure that a doubling in the population index of one species (e.g. 100 to 200) is balanced by a halving (e.g. 100 to 50). It allows for each species to have the same relative effect on the indicator.

What does 'modelling count data' mean?

For those species covered by the Common Bird Census (CBC) and Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), all data from survey sites are used in the generation of trends, regardless of the habitat at these sites (e.g. survey data from woodland sites is used in the trends for farmland species and vice versa). Trends are generated from the two data sources using the joint-model methods described by Noble et al. (2003a). Generalized linear models (GLMs) are used, with the application of a post-hoc smoothing spline to produce smoothed indices for each species, thereby removing short-term fluctuations that may be caused by sampling error, or minor fluctuations due to weather effects, for example. Such smoothing does however mean that the estimates for the final year of a trend must be treated with caution as they lack the smoothing effect of data in subsequent years. The nature of smoothed trends, in that data from any given year has an impact on trend values for earlier (and later) years means that existing species indices (and hence indicator) values will be different in subsequent annual revisions.

Data from the CBC and BBS are combined and analysed statistically in a single GLM with site and year effects, as described at http://www.bto.org/about-birds/birdtrends/2013/methods/cbcbbs-trends. Equal weight is given to CBC and BBS sites by assigning each CBC site the mean of the BBS site weighting. Confidence limits on these species trends are generated by bootstrapping; repeated resampling (with replacement) to generate a sample of estimated trend values, with the 2.5% and 97.5% percentiles giving the 95% confidence limits around the trend value for each year.

What are 'confidence intervals' and why are they used?

The trends in this publication are based on estimates from surveys. Smoothed trends are presented with 95% confidence intervals (CI), which are a measure of the precision of these survey estimates. While the exact value for an indicator in a particular year cannot be known, a 95% CI means users can be 95% confident that the true value of the indicator falls within the confidence interval around it.

Why are the confidence intervals for some indices such as 'breeding generalist farmland birds' so much wider than they are for other indices such as 'breeding generalist woodland birds' and what is it indicating?

51

The size of confidence intervals (CIs) varies among habitat indicators because their width is influenced by the number of species in each indicator and the precision of the individual species trends that make up the indicator. The precision of these trends varies due to differences in sample size. More specifically, the CIs for generalist farmland birds indicator is wider than the CIs for generalist woodland birds indicator because there are only 7 individual species in the former indicator, whereas there are 12 species in the latter. Wider confidence intervals imply that the range of values within which users can be confident the true indicator value falls is greater than it would be for a narrower confidence interval. Therefore, users can be 95% confident that the true value of the breeding generalist woodland birds indicator falls within a narrower range of values than the true value of the breeding generalist farmland birds indicator.

Why is the percentage change used to define a 'weak increase' different to that used to define a 'weak decline'?

Asymmetric percentage change thresholds are used to define these classes as they refer to proportional change, where a doubling of a species index (an increase of 100%) is counterbalanced by a halving (a decrease of 50%).

What is 'bootstrapping' and why is it used?

Bootstrapping, a statistical method that estimates the uncertainty in a trend through repeated re-sampling and trend estimation. Confidence intervals for the estimated trends are calculated from percentiles (such as 2.5% and 97.5%) of the sample of estimated trend lines. The procedures currently used provide a measure, and level of confidence, of the indicator value in any particular year (e.g. 2014) relative to the start year of the time series. It is feasible to calculate the change, and confidence in that change, for any other time period (e.g. over five years from 2009 to 2014) but this requires all of the constituent population trends and their bootstraps to be recalculated using the start year (e.g. 2009) as a baseline.

Why does the overall index for breeding wild birds in the UK not appear to reflect the large reductions in the population of farmland birds during the 1980s and why did the population of farmland birds suffer so much during that time?

The overall ‘all-species’ index is comprised of 130 species of birds, all widespread species with populations of at least 500 breeding pairs for which there are sufficient data. It represents 4 habitat types (including farmland birds) and a further 38 generalist species with no particular habitat preference. Species trends within this index vary widely, from species increasing several-fold (e.g. Cetti's warbler, blackcap, buzzard, red-breasted merganser, great spotted woodpecker, red kite and collared dove) to those having declined to less than a tenth of 1970 numbers (turtle dove, capercaillie, corn bunting, willow tit and grey partridge). Within the index, 32% of the 130 species increased, 35% showed little change and 30% declined between 1970 and 2016. The apparent declines in the farmland birds indicator (comprising of 19 species, so just

52

15% of the total of species in the all species indicator) are being mitigated by increases in some of the other species in the indicator.

The large declines in the abundance of many farmland birds have many known and potential causes. For a large part, declines have been caused by the changes in farming practices that have taken place since the 1950s and 60s, such as the loss of mixed farming, a move from spring to autumn sowing of arable crops, change in grassland management (e.g. a switch from hay to silage production), increased pesticide and fertiliser use, and the removal of non-cropped features such as hedgerows. The rate of these changes, which resulted in the loss of suitable nesting and suitable feeding habitats, and a reduction in available food, was greatest during the late 1970s and early 1980s, the period during which many farmland bird populations declined most rapidly.

What are the main differences between 'generalist' and 'specialist' bird populations and why have they fared so differently since the 1970s?

Specialist bird species are considered to be largely or wholly dependent on one particular habitat whereas generalist bird species utilise a wider range of habitats. Specialist bird species may find it difficult to adapt to changes in their habitats while generalist bird species may find it easier to adapt because they are not as reliant on one specific habitat type. For example, the woodland bird index is comprised of trends for 37 species. Between 1970 and 2017, the index for woodland specialists which are highly dependent on woodland habitats declined by 46% while the index for woodland generalists, many of which have adapted to using gardens and wooded areas in farmland including woodland, showed a 14% increase.

Are species of birds included in the trends if they are introduced in subsequent years?

Yes. Species of birds which are introduced into the indices in later years will be included and trends calculated.

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