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2009 RATES CONFERENCE
Global Economic and Market OutlookLarry KantorManaging Director, Head of Research, Barclays Capital
June 19, 2009
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES STARTING ON SLIDE 8.
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2009 RATES CONFERENCEOrders Point toManufacturing Rebound
Source: Barclays Capital.Notes: New orders-inventories series is normalized; constructed using sub-components of country PMIs.
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15-10
-5
0
5
10
15
98 00 02 04 06 08
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Global manufacturing output, % 3m/3m ann. (lhs) Global new orders less inventories (rhs)
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-30
-25
-20
-15
-10-5
0
5
10
15
20
98 99 01 03 05 07 09
Manufacturing Production (3mth % chg, saar) Real Consumption of Goods (3mth % chg, saar)
US Consumption Has Stabilized, butProduction Is Still Falling Sharply
Source: BEA, Federal Reserve Board, Haver Analytics, Barclays Capital.
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2009 RATES CONFERENCE
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
Change in Real Private Inventories as a % of Real GDP
Q2 f/c
US Inventories SignalRecession Bottom
Source: BEA, Haver Analytics, Barclays Capital.Notes: Shading indicates recession as defined by the NBER.
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2009 RATES CONFERENCE
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 05
ISM Manufacturing New Orders Index
And So Do USManufacturing Orders
Source: ISM, Haver Analytics.Notes: Shading indicates recession as defined by the NBER.
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2009 RATES CONFERENCEJobless Claims and IndustrialProduction Are Reliable Signals
Industrial Production, Indexed to Trough Initial Jobless Claims, Indexed to Peak
Source: Federal Reserve Board, Department of Labor, Haver Analytics.
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
-16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16
Months from peak
Oct 70Mar 75May 80Sep 82
Mar 91Oct 01Mar 09
95
100
105
110
115
120
-16 -12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16Months from trough
Nov 70
May 75Jul 80Dec 82
Mar 91Dec 01May 09forecast
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2009 RATES CONFERENCE
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