Gerhard Bosch

Gerhard BoschUniversität Duisburg EssenInstitut Arbeit und QualifikationForsthausweg. 2LE 50647057 Duisburg

Telefon: +49.203.379-1827; Fax: +49.203.379-1809 Email: gerhard.bosch@uni-due.de; www.iaq.uni-due.de

Sicherung der Qualifikationen und der Kompetenzen der Beschäftigten inDeutschland und FrankreichFriedrich-Ebert-Stiftung / Lasaire, 11 April 2011, Paris

Der Einstieg der jüngeren Arbeitskräfte ins Berufsleben und die Sicherung der Kompetenzen der älteren Beschäftigten

Gliederung

1. Jugendarbeitslosigkeit in Europa

2. Berufsbildung und Übergang von Schule in

den Beruf in DE und FR

3. Modernisierung des deutschen

Berufsbildungssystems

4. Berufliche Bildung oder Akademisierung

5. Erwerbsbeteiligung von Älteren

6. Berufliche Weiterbildung in DE und FR

1.1 Scar effects of a bad start

Many studies on long term scar effects of a bad

start Examples:

KahnGraduating from college in a bad economy has large,negative and persistent effects on wages. Lifetimeearnings are substantially lower than they would havebeen if the graduate had entered the labour market ingood times (Lisa B. Kahn (2010), 'The long-term labor market

consequences ofgraduating from college in a bad economy', Labour Economics)

1.2 Scar effects of a bad start

Many studies on long term scar effects of a bad

start Examples:

Bell/Blanchflower 2010: Data from the UK 1958 birth cohort (National Child

Development Study) - Youth unemployment raises unemployment, lowers

wages, worsens health and lowers job satisfaction twenty five

yearslater. No such effects could be found for spells ofunemployment when the respondents were in their

thirties(D.N.F. Bell and D.G. Blanchflower (2009), “What to do about rising

unemployment inthe UK?’, IZA DP #4040)

1.3 Scar effects of a bad start

Recessions may have strong impact on beliefs of

young people:

Giuliano/Spilimbergo: Data self-reported answers from the General Social

Surveyduring early adulthood – They showed that individualsgrowing up during recessions tend to believe that

success inlife depends more on luck than on effort, support moregovernment redistribution, but are less confident in

publicinstitutions and that effects are long-lasting (Paola Giuliano

andAntonio Spilimbergo, 'Growing up in a recession: beliefs and the

macroeconomy', NBERWorking Paper No. 15321, September 2009)

1.5 Scar effects of a bad start

Reasons for scar effects:• Young people as outsiders vulnerable• Personality still developing in adulthood• Access to good jobs and careers increasingly

only with „clean CV‘s“ - without the stigma of a bad start

• Employment and education systems are often not „forgiving“

• Strong age chohortsBut: • National differences in scar effects• Varieties in VET-systems, recruitment

criteria and support for a „second chance“

source: Eurostat

1.6 Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates (%) youth (under 25's) Sep 2010

1.7 Increase of youth unemployment rates in percentage points (Sep. 2008 – Sep. 2010)

source: Eurostat

1.8 Youth unemployment rate in relation to total unemployment rate Sep. 2010

source: Eurostat

2.1 Types of VET

A Heuristic Typology of European VET Systems

Type of VET system Countries

Apprenticeship-basedAustria, Germany, Denmark

Continental school-based

Netherlands, France

Market-led UK, Ireland,

General EducationGreece, Spain, Poland, Hungary

Egalitarian School-based

Finland, Sweden

Upper secondary enrolment rates* 

General programmes

Vocational programmesAll programmes Of which: combined school and work based

Apprenticeship-based

Austria 22,7 77,3 33,3

Denmark 52,3 47,7 47,2

Germany 42,6 57,4 42,2

Continental school-based

Netherlands 32,4 67,6 18,5

France 56,2 43,8 12,1

Market-led

UK 58,6 41,4 m

Ireland 65,5 34,5 2,2

General Education

Greece 68,3 31,7 a

Spain 56,6 43,4 1,9

Hungary 76,4 23,6 13,2

Egalitarian School-based

Sweden 42,9 57,1 a

Finland 33,3 66,7 11,5Source: OECD (2009), Education at a glance Table C1.4 Note:*Percentage of upper secondary graduates in the population at the typical age of graduation by programme orientation. m = missing; a = not applicable

2.1 Population that has Attained Upper Secondary Education and Upper Secondary Enrolment Rates by Orientation of Programmes (2006)

8,3%

15%

25%

- 47,5%

42,5%

-5%

1,2%

-17%

23%

-15,4%

Allgemeinbildung

Berufsbildung

ohne mitHauptschulabschluss

Realschulabschluss u. ä.

Fachhoch-schulreife

Hoch-schulreife

Ohne Berufs-ausbildung Nur Duales

SystemDuales System

+ StudiumNur

Studium

Berufs-Fachschul-,

Assistenten-,Beamten-,ausbildung

StudiumDuales System

8,3%

15%

25%

- 47,5%

42,5%

-5%

1,2%

-17%

23%

-15,4%

Allgemeinbildung

Berufsbildung

ohne mitHauptschulabschluss

Realschulabschluss u. ä.

Fachhoch-schulreife

Hoch-schulreife

Ohne Berufs-ausbildung Nur Duales

SystemDuales System

+ StudiumNur

Studium

Berufs-Fachschul-,

Assistenten-,Beamten-,ausbildung

StudiumDuales System

Berufsbildung und allgemein bildende Schulen 2004

2.3 Stellung der Berufsbildung im Bildungssystem

2.4 French system of initial vocational training within the education system (excluding classes which prepare students for the entry exams to the Grandes Écoles and engineering schools)2.4

Note: In grey vocational training programs. Possible re-orientation or pursuit of studies: full arrow.Source: Mehaut 2010

23

2121

181918

15

15

1111

6

63

Doktorat

Master

Lycée général

Collège

Ecole primaire

Ecole maternelle

Licence professionnelle en université, IUT et/ou association avec des lycées, éventuellement en apprentissage

Diplôme universitaire de technologie (DUT), Brevet de technicien superieur (BTS), université (IUT) ou lycée (classes de STS), temps plein ou apprentissage

Brevet d‘études professionnelle (BEP. 2 ans), certificat d‘aptitudes professionnelles (/CAP, 2 ou 3 ans), baccalauréat professionnel (3 ans) en lycée ou apprentissage

Age théorique

2.5 Research on transition from education to work

Myriad studies: • Fast and stable transition in countries with

apprenticeship systems – apprentices are insiders• Relatively fast, but often not sustainable

transitions in market-led systems• Most difficult transitions in countries with GE and

high levels of Employment protection legislation• Difficult transitions from school-based VET –

school leavers are outsiders

Source: Müller/Gangl, Transitions from Education to Work in Europe, Oxford 2003

2.6 Transition from Education to Work: Unemployment rates and labour force experience (in years): ISCED 3 leavers (1990‘s)

2.7 Average duration of school-to-work transition by gender in eight EU Countries 2006*

Country Men Women Both sexesAustria 0,9 0,8 0,9France 1,8 1,5 1,4Germany 0,1 0,1 0,1Greece 3,2 1,8 2,7Hungary 3,5 2,0 2,8Italy 3,4 3,1 3,4Spain 3,8 3,3 3,6Sweden 1,6 1,0 1,4UK 1,9 1,8 1,8EU (unweighted)

1,9 1,5 1,7

*Median time taken by youths to engage in current jobs calculated by subtracting job tenure in current jobs from the time elapsed since completing highest level of education.Source: OECD 2008 Employment Outlook:48

Zwischen 1998 und 2006

62 Berufe neu geschaffen: Gemischte Bilanz

Erfolgreiche neue Berufe (z.B. IT-Berufe 2007: 14 817 Neuabschlüsse )

Misserfolge (z.B. Film/Videoeditor/in 2007: 39 Neuabschlüsse )

162 Berufe modernisiert: Überwiegend positiv, aber Chance verpasst, Berufe in Berufsfamilien zusammenzufassen z.B. im Bürobereich

Spezialinteressen von Verbänden verhindern zum Teil Zusammenfassungen von Berufen

3.1 Modernisierung der Berufe in DE

3.2 Training curriculain the German metalworking trades 1987 and 2004

- 1987 - 45, 1987 - 16, 2004 – 5 occupations

0

1

2

3

3,5 Duration of training in years

0

1

2

3

3,5

Specific training

Specific training

Basic occupational training

General training for the occupational field

Basic training

1987 2004

Occupational training

Joint core competencies

INTEGRATED LEARNING

0

1

2

3

3,5 Duration of training in years

0

1

2

3

3,5

Specific training

Specific training

Basic occupational training

General training for the occupational field

Basic training

1987 2004

Occupational training

Joint core competences

INTEGRATED LEARNING

 

Class Room-Orientation

Product-Orientation

Project-Orientation

Customer-Orientation

Increasing Work Orientation

Small Products

Complex Products

Orders

Source: Bosch 2000a

3.3 Basic learning forms in vocational training

Hohe Handlungskompetenz auf dezentraler Ebene: erleichtert flache Hierarchien und fördert Diffusion neuer Technologien

Mittlere Führungsebene kommt von unten: Besserer Kommunikationsfluss als in USA oder UK mit großer Kluft zwischen akademischer Führungsebene und un- und angelerntem shop-floor

Geheimnis der hohen Produktivität und Qualität(„Made in Germany“)

Bis zu 30 % Produktivitätsvorteil zwischen D, UK, USA bei gleichen Produkten

International vergleichende Betriebsstudien (z.B. Wagner, Finegold u.a.): Erleichtert moderne Formen des Arbeitsorganisation

3.4 Stärken des dualen Systems der Berufsbildung

4.1 The role of tertiary education

• Percentage of highly skilled jobs (ISCO 1-3) in most developed countries between 15 and 25%

• Share of graduates from tertiary education exceeding the share of highly skilled jobs in many countries

• Increasing mismatch because of expansion of tertiary education

4.2 Share of population in skilled jobs and share of population with tertiary education (2006) share of the 25-to-64-year-old working population in skilled jobs (ISCO 1-3 Managers, Professional, Technicians and Associate Professionals) and share of the 25-to-64-year-old population with tertiary education (2006)

Source: OECD, Education at a glance 2008

4.3 Impacts of the „academic drift“

• Overproduction of graduates • increasing rates of unemployment • increasing inequalities of returns to

higher education

• Displacement of graduates from VET

• Skill shortages at the craft level

• Increasing difficulties to revitalize VET

• Polarization of the skill structure

• Need of new „Vocationalism“ in tertiary education

5.1 Employment rate people aged 55-64 by level of education in FR, DE and SE, in 2005

source: Eurostat: Statistic in focus 15/2006

5.2 Main reasons for high employment rates of all groups in SE compared to DE and FR

- Good basic education and training plus high investments in LLL

- Low age discrimination- No seniority based pay systems- Solidarity wage policy – reduction of

mobility costs- Flat hierarchies- Proactive health and safety policy- High level of gender equality- No early retirement policy

MEN

WOMEN

5.3 The Structure of Earnings by Age and Gender

MEN

WOMEN

5.4 The Structure of Earnings by Age and Gender

6.1 Weiterbildung in DE und FR

In beiden Ländern Rentenreform bildungspolitisch nicht unterfüttert

Deutschland hatte in der Arbeitsmarktpolitik gutes System der zweiten Chance • Förderte Berufsausbildung für

Arbeitslose• Durch Hartz-Reformen Umschulungen

fast eingestellt trotz guter Evaluationsergebnisse

Frankreich - Fondssystem: • Meistens kurze Weiterbildungen• Höhere Abgabe für Leiharbeiter und

befristete Beschäftigte• Zunahme der Weiterbildung durch

Einführung des Droit individuel à la formation

6.2 Participation in further education and training 2007

Participation rate in %Hours of

education training per participant

All 50 years and older

EU-15 34.6 26.4 71

DK 37.6 32.5 121

DE 43.1 33.7 76

FR 34.1 21.3 57

NL 42.1 33.1 59

AT 39.8 30.7 92

SE 69.4 63.7 73

UK 40.3 35.6 48

source: EU Adult Education Survey

6.3 Eintritte in berufliche Weiterbildung SGB II und SGB III, Deutschland gesamt

EINTRITTE

Publikationen

Bosch, Gerhard / Charest, Jean (eds.), 2010: Vocational training: international perspectives. New York [u.a.]: Routledge

Bosch, Gerhard, 2010: In Qualifizierung investieren: ein Weiterbildungsfonds für Deutschland. Expertise. Bonn: FES. Wiso Diskurs

http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/wiso/07668.pdfBosch, Gerhard / Krone, Sirikit / Langer, Dirk

(Hrsg.), 2010: Das Berufsbildungssystem in Deutschland: aktuelle Entwicklungen und Standpunkte. Wiesbaden: VS, Verl. für Sozialwiss