Hagen Koch 1 , Stefan Kaden 2 , Michael Kaltofen 2

GLOWA-Elbe II Statuskonferenz 14. Dez. 2006 Potsdam Hagen Koch et al., BTU Cottbus

Hagen Koch1, Stefan Kaden2, Michael Kaltofen2

1Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, Chair of Hydrology and Water Resources Management

2 WASY GmbH, Institute for Water Resources Planning and System Research

WBalMo Elbe / module Czechia -

application fields and first results


1. Contents

1. Relevance for the Overall Model

1. Input Data and Information

1. Development of Modules

1. First Results

1. Conclusion and Outlook

1. Contents


- Inflow to Germany at different locations:

- GLOWA-ELBE II sub-project Surface Water Availability: investigation of changes in the water availability in the whole Elbe River Basin under global change scenarios

2. Relevance for the Overall Model

- Czech Republic covers one third of the Elbe

River Basin roughly

• Main stream of river Labe

=> Decin / Labe

• Sub-basin of the river Mulde

=> downstream reservoir Prisecnice / Prisecniceice

=> downstream reservoir Flaje / Flajsk potok

- Effects of climate change and reservoir

management in the Czech Republic will

in all probability have an influence on

inflow to Germany


Basis for Data and Information

“Agreement of co-operation” between GLOWA-ELBE II and the Czech River Basin Authorities

Data and information delivered:

3. Input Data and Information

• reservoirs to be included in the model (name, location, controllable storage, active storage, water surface area, etc.) => reservoirs with capacity equal or larger than 1 mill. m3

• water users, i.e. withdrawals and discharges (name, location, reference number of permit, monthly or yearly values for the last years, etc.) => quantity equal or larger than 0.01 m3/s

• management of water resources facilities - e.g. water transfers between river reaches or reservoirs (name, location of intake and of orifice, capacity, etc.)


Structure of the Modules

… is according to the river basin districts (Povodis) in the Czech Republic

• Upper Vltava,Upper Vltava,

• Lower Vltava,Lower Vltava,

• Berounka,Berounka,

• Upper and Middle Labe,Upper and Middle Labe,

• Ohre and Lower Labe.Ohre and Lower Labe.


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Ohre / Lower Labe

Berounka

Upper / MiddleLabe

Lower Vltava

UpperVltava

20 0 20 40 Kilometers


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5

River networkRivers WBalMoReservoirs

%U Returnflows#S Withdrawals

Legend:

Development of Modules

…on the example of the module Upper and Middle Labe

• Upper Vltava,

• Lower Vltava,

• Berounka,

• Upper and Middle Labe,Upper and Middle Labe,

• Ohre and Lower Labe.


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riverscalculation profilesreservoirswater users


Results

…for different fields/sectors and locations as example for possible kinds of analysis:

• Effects of climate change on natural streamflows

• Effects of climate change on regulated (managed) streamflows

• Effects of climate change for different water users

• Effects of climate change on filling of reservoirs

5. First Results


Effects of climate change on natural streamflows

5. First Results

#Y

#YJesenice

Ceske Udoli#Y

#YJesenice

Ceske Udoli

03-07 08-12 13-17 18-22 23-27 28-32 33-37 38-42 43-47 48-525-year-periods (years 2003-2052)

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stre

amfl

ow

[m

³/s]

probability of exceedance 90%probability of exceedance 99%probability of exceedance 90%probability of exceedance 99%

#Y

#YJesenice

Ceske Udoli


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[m

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probability of exceedance 90%probability of exceedance 99%probability of exceedance 90%probability of exceedance 99%


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Vrane

Decin Labska

Melnik

VrananyNemciceNymburk

Korensko

Pardubice

Vyssi Brod

Litomerice

Les Kralovstvi

Usti nad Labem

Ceske Budejovice

Brandys nad Labem

Effects of climate change on regulated (managed) streamflows

5. First Results

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ss

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sk

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de

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sk

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ne

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na

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amfl

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[m

3 /s]

MQ, 1st period (2003-2007)

MQ, 10th period (2048-2052)

NMQ, 1st period (2003-2007)

NMQ, 10th period (2048-2052)

#Y

#Y

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#Y#Y

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Vrane

Decin Labska

Melnik

VrananyNemciceNymburk

Korensko

Pardubice

Vyssi Brod

Litomerice

Les Kralovstvi

Usti nad Labem

Ceske Budejovice

Brandys nad Labem

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cin


Safety of drinking water provision for the city of Prague

Drinking water for the city of Prague is provided by three sources:• Withdrawal directly from the river Vltava in Prague,• Transfer from the area between the cities of Sojovice and Karany (bank filtration),• Transfer from reservoir Svihov (Zelivka).

reservoirSvihov

bank filtration

Prague

reservoirSvihov

bank filtration

Prague

reservoirSvihov

bank filtration

Prague


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Saf

ety

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ieve

men

t [%

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PVK Praha UV Podolidemand= 0,6 m 3/s


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Prazske vodarny, vodarna Karany/Sojovice

dem and= 1,83 m 3/s

5. First Results


Reservoir Svihov (Zelivka)

Comparison of real values for withdrawal (years 1991 -2004) with simulated values for all ten periods (years 2003 - 2052).

5. First Results

simulated, 5-year-periods (2003-2052)

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real values (years 1991-2004)

withdrawal, simulatedmean value for periodminimum value for period

withdrawal, realm ean value for year


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withdrawal, simulatedmean value for periodminimum value for period

withdrawal, realm ean value for year


Inflow to Germany downstream reservoir Prisecnice (at Schmalzgrube / Preßnitz) –

modules for the rivers Ohre and Mulde

5. First Results

#Y

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#Y


0.0

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amfl

ow

, rel

ease

[m

³/s]

Probability of exceedance 99%inflow to reservoir (sum)drinking water supply (UV Hradiste)streamflow below reservoirstreamflow Schmalzgrube / Preßnitz






Filling of Reservoirs

5. First Results

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Ohre / Lower Labe

Berounka

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Lower Vltava

UpperVltava

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OrlikOrlik

HracholuskyHracholusky

RozkosRozkos

NechraniceNechranice


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Probability of exceedance 99%reservoir Lipno Ireservoir Orlikreservoir Hracholuskyreservoir Rozkosreservoir Nechranice






Conclusions:• Climate change will affect water availability in the Czech part of the Elbe River Basin• Affects will be different at different locations and within seasons (e.g. rising streamflows

during winter and falling streamflows during summer and autumn)• Streamflows during low flow episodes will fall generally• Drinking water provision from reservoirs is sector most affected, for other water users water

can be provided with high safety• Under extreme dry conditions the water level in some reservoirs will fall significantly while

other reservoirs are unaffected• Adapted/changed management of reservoirs might compensate for some of the effects of

climate change

Outlook:• Analysis of results in consultation of Povodis (e.g. for 4th Status Report)• Inclusion of changing water demand for large water users (e.g. power stations) and

calculation of effects

6. Conclusion and Outlook


Thank You

for your attention!


Reservoir Prisecnice: DWS, comparison of real values with simulated values

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withdrawal, simulatedmean value for month

withdrawal, realm ean value for month


Filling of reservoirs


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Fill

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A ctive capacityreservoir Lipno Ireservoir Orlikreservoir Hracholuskyreservoir Rozkosreservoir Nechranice


Hagen Koch 1 , Stefan Kaden 2 , Michael Kaltofen 2

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