Weekly Market Communiqué · Weekly Market Communiqu ... Domestic Economic News 2. Highlights of...

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Weekly Market Communiqué Weekly Market Communiqué Weekly Market Communiqué Weekly Market Communiqué February 1, 2013 February 1, 2013 February 1, 2013 February 1, 2013 Except otherwise stated, please note that all data/information used in the preparation of this material and the outlook on Markets is dated February 1, 2013 and may or may not be relevant any time after the issuance of this material. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The recipient of this material is solely responsible for any action taken based on this material. All data source: CRISIL except as mentioned specifically. The information contained herein are meant solely for the benefit of the addressee and shall not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. The recipient of this material is solely responsible for any action taken based on this material. Please refer slide no. 39 & 40 for risk factors.

Transcript of Weekly Market Communiqué · Weekly Market Communiqu ... Domestic Economic News 2. Highlights of...

Page 1: Weekly Market Communiqué · Weekly Market Communiqu ... Domestic Economic News 2. Highlights of RBI’s Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012y Policy 2012----13113313

Weekly Market CommuniquéWeekly Market CommuniquéWeekly Market CommuniquéWeekly Market CommuniquéWeekly Market CommuniquéWeekly Market CommuniquéWeekly Market CommuniquéWeekly Market Communiqué

February 1, 2013February 1, 2013February 1, 2013February 1, 2013

Except otherwise stated, please note that all data/information used in the preparation of this material and the outlook on Markets is dated February 1,2013 and may or may not be relevant any time after the issuance of this material. The AMC takes no responsibility of updating any data/information inthis material from time to time. The recipient of this material is solely responsible for any action taken based on this material. All data source: CRISILexcept as mentioned specifically. The information contained herein are meant solely for the benefit of the addressee and shall not be altered in any way,transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent ofICICI Prudential Asset Management Company Limited. Further, the information contained herein should not be construed as forecast or promise. Therecipient of this material is solely responsible for any action taken based on this material. Please refer slide no. 39 & 40 for risk factors.

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Domestic Economic NewsDomestic Economic NewsDomestic Economic NewsDomestic Economic News

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Highlights of RBI’s Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012Highlights of RBI’s Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012Highlights of RBI’s Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012Highlights of RBI’s Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012----13131313

Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cuts the policy repo rate under the liquidity adjustmentfacility (LAF) by 25bps from 8% to 7.75% with immediate effect.

As a result, the reverse repo rate under the LAF, determined with a spread of 100 bpsbelow the repo rate, stands adjusted at 6.75%, while the marginal standing facility (MSF)Rate, which is determined with a spread of 100 bps above the repo rate, stands adjustedat 8.75% with immediate effect.

RBI also decides to cut the cash reserve ratio (CRR) of scheduled banks by 25 bps to 4%of their net demand and time liabilities (NDTL) effective the fortnight beginning February9, 2013; as a result of this reduction, around Rs.18000cr of primary liquidity will beinjected into the banking system.

The Bank Rate stands adjusted at 8.75% with immediate effect. The Bank Rate stands adjusted at 8.75% with immediate effect.

RBI revises down India’s GDP growth for 2012-13 to 5.5% from 5.8% estimated in thesecond quarter policy review; also revised downwards the baseline WPI inflationprojection for March 2013 to 6.8% from 7.5% estimated earlier.

Policy action aimed at aiding growth by encouraging investment and improving liquidityto support credit flow.

Q3 current account deficit likely to widen beyond 5.4% of GDP.

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EconomyEconomyEconomyEconomy

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) cuts its estimate on India's GDP growth in 2011-12 to6.2% from 6.5% earlier on account of a sharp upward correction in the base year; at6.2%, this is the lowest growth rate in India's GDP since 4.0% growth in 2002-03.

CSO raises the growth estimate for 2010-11 to 9.3% from 8.4%, and for 2009-10 to 8.6%from 8.4%.

Growth in India's key infrastructure industries improved marginally to 2.6% in Dec from1.6% a month ago; for Apr-Dec the infrastructure growth was measured at 3.3% versus4.8% a year ago.

India’s fiscal deficit during the Apr-Dec period was Rs 4.07 lakh cr, or 78.8% of thebudgeted full fiscal year 2012-13 target; the deficit was 92.3% of the budgetary target induring the same period in the previous fiscal year.during the same period in the previous fiscal year.

Indian government's tax collections during Apr-Dec rose 15.0% on year to Rs 6.813 lakhcr; in Dec, the tax mop-up stood at Rs 1.37 lakh cr vs Rs 1.19 lakh cr a year ago.

FM says that there would be more room for fiscal and monetary steps once the growthin the economy revives next financial year starting April.

Highlights of RBI’s review of the macroeconomic and monetary developments duringthe Q3 FY13:

• RBI says a sustained commitment to contain the fiscal and current account deficitswas needed to create room for monetary easing.

• RBI says additional market borrowing by the government is unlikely in the currentfinancial year

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EconomyEconomyEconomyEconomy

• Expresses concern that the widening gap between credit and deposit growth couldpose a risk for systemic liquidity.

• India's economic growth could fall to 5.5% this fiscal before seeing gradualrecovery next year.

Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) expects the growth inthe Indian economy to rise to 6.7% in the next financial year starting April on the back ofpossible rate cuts by the RBI.

India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for industrial workers stood at 11.17% in Dec 2012 ascompared to 9.5% for the previous month and 6.49% during the corresponding monthof the previous year.

Foreign direct investment inflows into Indian equities fell 43% on year to $15.84 bn Foreign direct investment inflows into Indian equities fell 43% on year to $15.84 bnduring Apr-Nov, the first eight months of 2012-13.

S&P says that the possibility of India losing its investment-grade credit rating hasreceded somewhat due to the economic reforms undertaken by the government sincelast September.

Fitch Ratings said that action on rating downgrade for India would depend on whetherthe government sticks to reform steps and take steps to reduce fiscal deficit.

India’s forex reserves rose by $77 mn to $295.75 bn in the week ended Jan 25.

India's HSBC Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to a three-monthlow of 53.2 in Jan from a six-month high of 54.7 in Dec, in view of slower expansion innew orders and power outages.

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GovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernment

Divestment Secretary says the government is expected to mop up around Rs.27000 cr bydivesting its stake in various PSUs in the current financial year ending March comparedwith target of Rs.30000 cr.

Government fixes the floor or minimum price for sale of its 10% stake in Oil India at Rs510 per share, aims to garner Rs.3065cr from the divestment.

The empowered committee of state finance ministers approve the recommendations of asub group set up by the Finance Minister to resolve the issue of compensation to thestates for phasing out of the central sales tax.

Government approves four Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) proposals worth Rs.280cr.

India to impose 6-10% duty on gold jewellery imports in the proposed Free TradeAgreement with Thailand.Agreement with Thailand.

Union Cabinet approves increasing the fair and remunerative price of sugarcane by Rs 40per 100 kg to Rs 210 for the new marketing season starting October 2013.

Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approves export of edible oil in brandedconsumer packs of 5 kg at a minimum export price of $1,500 per tonne without anyquantitative limits.

The Union Cabinet approves a revival plan to include a fund infusion of around Rs.200crfor Scooters India Ltd.

Government launches its first government-to-business portal called the eBiz, to provideround-the-clock secure one-stop site for all investment and business related information.

Advisor to the Finance Minister says that the government will come up with a modifiedDirect Taxes Code (DTC) Bill after incorporating the suggestions of the StandingCommittee on Finance.

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GovernmentGovernmentGovernmentGovernment

Government drops the contentious clause of treating a borrower’s accounts with allbanks as non-performing if the accountholder is defaulting on repayment to one bank.

Finance Ministry asks the state-owned banks to reduce the fixed deposit rate offered tosenior citizens to reduce cost of funds.

The Cabinet clears Oil and Natural Gas Corporation Limited (ONGC) Videsh’s proposalto acquire minority stakes of Hess Corporation in prolific oil fields and a pipeline inAzerbaijan for $1bn.

Government puts on hold its plan to list state-run general insurers, with the financeministry taking a view that financial health of these companies is not conducive forlisting.

Government is set to accept the recommendations of Parthasarathi Shome panel on

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Government is set to accept the recommendations of Parthasarathi Shome panel onapplication of retrospective taxation clauses introduced in the Income Tax Act throughFinance Act, 2012.

Aviation ministry decides to roll back a hike in royalty charged from companiesproviding maintenance, repair and overhaul services to business jet owners andoperators of chartered flights.

Government urges the public sector units to use Indian shipping lines fortransportation of their cargo.

Government says that it has further extended the in-principle approval for POSCO'sproposed multi-product special economic zone in Odisha till Oct 24.

Coal ministry extends the last date of receipt of applications for allocation of coalblocks to government companies to Feb 8 from Jan 30.

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RegulatoryRegulatoryRegulatoryRegulatory

RBI proposes that the provision on restructured assets be increased by banks in aphased manner to 5% against 2.75% at present, starting from April 1.

RBI turns down a finance ministry proposal to provide the benefits associated withinfrastructure status to the housing sector.

RBI says all interest rate swap contracts other than those of client trades have to bestandardized.

RBI eases the borrowing and investment conditions for primary dealers (PDs); doublesthe amount PDs can borrow in inter-corporate deposits to 150% of the net ownedfunds, from 75% earlier.

RBI decides to introduce inflation-indexed bonds soon.

RBI says it has prepared a Financial Literacy Guide, with guidelines on how to conduct RBI says it has prepared a Financial Literacy Guide, with guidelines on how to conductFinancial Literacy Camps, so as to synchronise it with providing financial access andthus link financially excluded sections of the society with banking system.

Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) issues modified guidelines for OFSmechanism or auction route; says indicative price of the offer should be disclosedthroughout the trading session and the same should be calculated on the basis of allvalid bids/orders.

SEBI comes out with guidelines for setting up a separate debt segment on bourseswhere entities like banks and pension funds can also execute trades.

SEBI allows Hyderabad Securities and Enterprises to exit from the business of runninga bourse.

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RegulatoryRegulatoryRegulatoryRegulatory

SEBI disposes the insider trading case against Suzlon Energy and its officials throughthe consent route.

SEBI disposes of a case against an individual for his alleged involvement inirregularities on part of Bank of Rajasthan’s former promoters.

Association of Mutual Fund in India’s (AMFI) revises its code of conduct guidelines forthe fund houses and distributors with an aim to check the flow of illicit money intomutual funds and safeguard the interest of investors.

According to AMFI data, during the quarter ended December, around 87.7% of totalmutual fund assets came from Mumbai, Delhi, Bangalore, Kolkata, Chennai,Ahmedabad, Pune, Hyderabad and Baroda, among other big cities; in the immediateprevious quarter, the assets from these cities were 87.4% of the total pie.

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previous quarter, the assets from these cities were 87.4% of the total pie.

According to Insurance Regulatory And Development Authority (IRDA), first-yearpremium income of life insurance companies in the country contracted 10.1% onyear to Rs.8560cr in December.

Telecom Disputes Settlement and Appellate Tribunal (TDSAT) restrains thegovernment from taking any coercive action against Vodafone India Ltd in pursuanceto DoTs' demand of Rs.3599cr on the company towards one-time spectrum fee.

Department of Telecomm (DoT) plans to kick off the second round of 2G spectrumauction on Mar 11, starting with sale of 1,800 MHz and 900 MHz followed by the 800MHz spectrum bandwidth.

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RegulatoryRegulatoryRegulatoryRegulatory

The Income-Tax Department alleges an under-pricing of shares worth Rs.15000cr byShell India to its overseas group company.

The Income Tax Department probing the Nokia tax-evasion case, in an interim report,says the company should pay Rs.13000cr for tax and transfer-pricing violations.

The Calcutta High Court orders winding up of tyre manufacturing company DunlopIndia.

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CommoditiesCommoditiesCommoditiesCommodities

International Brent crude oil prices advanced in the week following robust US homeprices data; prices ended at $115.55 a barrel on January 31 compared to $113.28 abarrel on January 2.

US crude oil inventories rose 5.9mn barrels to 369.1mn barrels for the week endedJanuary 25.

Indian gold prices declined in the week to end at Rs 30,245 per 10 grams on February 1versus Rs 30,607 per 10 grams on January 24, due to sustained selling by stockists onsluggish demand.

Domestic silver prices fell sharply in the week to close at Rs 57,324 per kg on February1 compared with Rs 58,573 per kg on January 24, on reduced demand from industrialunits and coin makers.units and coin makers.

Forward Markets Commission (FMC) lays down the rules for algo trading in gold, silverand a host of agri-futures commodities.

FMC directs commodity exchanges not to execute orders of their clients withoutregistering them for email and SMS alerts.

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Indian EquityIndian EquityIndian EquityIndian Equity

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Indian EquityIndian EquityIndian EquityIndian Equity

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IndicesIndicesIndicesIndices February 1February 1February 1February 1 January 25January 25January 25January 25 ChangeChangeChangeChange % Change% Change% Change% Change

BSE SensexBSE SensexBSE SensexBSE Sensex 19781.19 20103.53 -322.34 -1.60

S&P CNX NiftyS&P CNX NiftyS&P CNX NiftyS&P CNX Nifty 5998.90 6074.65 -75.75 -1.25

BSE Consumer DurablesBSE Consumer DurablesBSE Consumer DurablesBSE Consumer Durables 7715.83 7549.94 165.89 2.20

BSE FMCGBSE FMCGBSE FMCGBSE FMCG 5934.38 5836.47 97.91 1.68

BSE RealtyBSE RealtyBSE RealtyBSE Realty 2212.59 2183.63 28.96 1.33

BSE HealthcareBSE HealthcareBSE HealthcareBSE Healthcare 8079.30 7991.49 87.81 1.10

BSE Mid CapBSE Mid CapBSE Mid CapBSE Mid Cap 6967.50 6974.23 -6.73 -0.10

BSE BankexBSE BankexBSE BankexBSE Bankex 14465.16 14565.06 -99.90 -0.69

BSE MetalBSE MetalBSE MetalBSE Metal 10523.82 10598.82 -75.00 -0.71

BSE ITBSE ITBSE ITBSE IT 6367.29 6414.26 -46.97 -0.73

BSE Small CapBSE Small CapBSE Small CapBSE Small Cap 7056.48 7142.71 -86.23 -1.21

BSE PowerBSE PowerBSE PowerBSE Power 1952.43 1977.87 -25.44 -1.29BSE PowerBSE PowerBSE PowerBSE Power 1952.43 1977.87 -25.44 -1.29

BSE AutoBSE AutoBSE AutoBSE Auto 10885.84 11071.24 -185.40 -1.67

BSE Oil & GasBSE Oil & GasBSE Oil & GasBSE Oil & Gas 9374.93 9535.84 -160.91 -1.69

BSE Capital GoodsBSE Capital GoodsBSE Capital GoodsBSE Capital Goods 10443.77 10759.77 -316.00 -2.94

Source: SEBI

Source: BSE & NSE

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IndianIndianIndianIndian EquityEquityEquityEquity

Indian equity benchmarks retreated in the week following weak domestic cues.

Cautiousness ahead of the RBI’s third quarter monetary policy review weighed on themarkets earlier.

Markets declined despite RBI reducing repo rate by 25 bps, as the central bankprojected a lower economic growth for the current fiscal.

Sentiments were also dented after discouraging Chinese manufacturing data raisedconcerns over growth slowdown in Asia's third-biggest economy.

Volatility ahead of the expiry of January F&O contracts, also affected the markets.

Intermittent profit booking, especially in index majors like RIL, pulled down the marketsfurther.

BSE sectoral indices ended mixed in the week, with BSE Consumer Durables gaining BSE sectoral indices ended mixed in the week, with BSE Consumer Durables gainingthe most, up 2.2% on individual stock buying, while BSE Capital Goods plunged nearly3% on profit booking in index heavyweights.

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Domestic F&O UpdateDomestic F&O UpdateDomestic F&O UpdateDomestic F&O Update

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Domestic F&O Update

NiftyNiftyNiftyNifty FuturesFuturesFuturesFutures

The week saw the near month contract changing from January 31, 2013 to February 28,2013 on February 1, 2013.

The new Nifty near month contract (expiry February 28, 2013) ended up with around37.20 premium to the spot index on February 1, 2013.

Over the week ended February 1, 2013, the Nifty spot index fell 1.25% due to weakdomestic cues.

The other Nifty future contracts, viz., March contract ended at 6100 points (down 74points over the week) while the April contract ended at 6094 points.

Overall, Nifty futures saw a weekly trading volume of Rs 40,483 cr arising out of 13lakhs contracts with an open interest of 137 lakhs.lakhs contracts with an open interest of 137 lakhs.

Source: NSE

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Domestic F&O Update

NiftyNiftyNiftyNifty OptionsOptionsOptionsOptions

Nifty 6100 call witnessed the highest open interest of 55 lakh on February 1.

Nifty 6100 call garnered the highest number of contracts over the week at 36 lakhs.

For put options, Nifty 6000 put witnessed the highest open interest of 61 lakhs onFebruary 1.

Nifty 6000 put also garnered the highest number of contracts over the week at 38 lakhs.

Overall, options saw 173 lakh contracts getting traded at a notional value of Rs 5,26,934cr during the week.

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Domestic F&O Update

StockStockStockStock FuturesFuturesFuturesFutures andandandand OptionsOptionsOptionsOptions––––

NSE witnessed 47 lakh contracts in stock futures valued at Rs 1,56,090 cr while stockoptions saw volumes of 21 lakh contracts valued at Rs 69,777 cr during the week endedFebruary 1, 2013.

NSENSENSENSE F&OF&OF&OF&O TurnoverTurnoverTurnoverTurnover ––––

Overall turnover on NSE's derivatives segment stood at Rs 8.6 lakh cr (276 lakhcontracts) in the week ended February 1, 2013 vs., Rs 6.80 lakh cr (218 lakh contracts) inthe previous week.

Put Call ratio fell from 0.99 on January 25 to 0.98 on February 1.

Week Ended Week Ended Week Ended Week Ended Feb 1, 2013Feb 1, 2013Feb 1, 2013Feb 1, 2013

TurnoverTurnoverTurnoverTurnoverRsRsRsRs. Cr.. Cr.. Cr.. Cr.

% to Total% to Total% to Total% to Total

Index Futures 57,907 6.72

Index Options 577,514 67.05

Stock Futures 156,090 18.12

Stock Options 69,777 8.10

TotalTotalTotalTotal 861,288 100.00

Put Call RatioPut Call RatioPut Call RatioPut Call Ratio 0.98 (Feb 1) 0.99 (Jan 25)

Source: NSE

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Domestic F&O Update

FII Segment FII Segment FII Segment FII Segment

On January 31 (last available SEBI data), foreign institutional investors' open interest stood at Rs 1.08 lakh cr (35 lakh contracts).

The details of FII derivatives trades for the period January 25 – 31 are as follows: -

Week Ended Week Ended Week Ended Week Ended Jan 31, 2013Jan 31, 2013Jan 31, 2013Jan 31, 2013

BuyBuyBuyBuy SellSellSellSell Buy %Buy %Buy %Buy % Sell %Sell %Sell %Sell %

No. of No. of No. of No. of contractscontractscontractscontracts

Amt in Amt in Amt in Amt in Rs CrRs CrRs CrRs Cr

No. of No. of No. of No. of contractscontractscontractscontracts

Amt in Amt in Amt in Amt in Rs CrRs CrRs CrRs Cr

No. of No. of No. of No. of contractscontractscontractscontracts

Amt in Amt in Amt in Amt in Rs CrRs CrRs CrRs Cr

No. of No. of No. of No. of contractscontractscontractscontracts

Amt in Amt in Amt in Amt in Rs CrRs CrRs CrRs Cr

Index 520008 15844 516685 15648 10.66 10.52 10.85 10.64

Index Futures

520008 15844 516685 15648 10.66 10.52 10.85 10.64

Index Options

2800768 85163 2705154 82229 57.44 56.53 56.79 55.94

Stock Futures

1170631 37649 1162743 37319 24.01 24.99 24.41 25.39

Stock Options

384927 11994 378888 11805 7.89 7.96 7.95 8.03

TotalTotalTotalTotal 4876334487633448763344876334 150650.12150650.12150650.12150650.12 4763470476347047634704763470 147002147002147002147002 100.00100.00100.00100.00 100.00100.00100.00100.00 100.00100.00100.00100.00 100.00100.00100.00100.00

Source: SEBI

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Indian DebtIndian DebtIndian DebtIndian Debt

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Indian Debt

Indian call money rates closed lower tracking cut in interest rates by the RBI at its policyreview held during the week.

Call rates ended at 7.75-7.80% on February 1 compared with 7.95-8.00% on January 24.

Further fall in call rates were however capped amid strong demand as banks tried tomeet most of their reserve requirements in the first week of the Reporting Fortnight.

Liquidity squeeze in the banking system also restricted fall in call rates during the week.

Gilt prices ended down in the week on profit booking after recent gains and as marketparticipants cut positions on views that there were very few near-term prospects of gainsfor the securities.

The yield on the 10 year benchmark 8.15%, 2022 bond rose to 7.91% on February 1versus 7.88% on January 24.versus 7.88% on January 24.

Cautiousness ahead of the gilt auctions worth Rs 12,000 cr held on the last working dayof the week also dragged government bond prices down in the week.

The central bank’s move to cut CRR dampened hopes of purchases of gilts by the centralbank via open market operations (OMOs) and also dampened sentiments.

Further fall in gilt prices were capped by gains made early in the week helped by thehighly anticipated rate cut by the central bank.

Market sentiments also improved after the entire auction amount was sold on the lasttrading day of the week signalling strong demand for gilts.

After market hours on February 1, the RBI announced T-bill auctions worth Rs 10,000 cron February 6 and state development auctions worth Rs 7,670 cr on February 5.

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Global EconomyGlobal EconomyGlobal EconomyGlobal Economy

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Global EconomyGlobal EconomyGlobal EconomyGlobal Economy

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Global Economy Global Economy Global Economy Global Economy ---- USUSUSUS

US Federal Reserve leaves in place its monthly $85bn bond-buying stimulus plan, sayingthat the support is needed to lower unemployment; also indicates that a recent stall inUS economic growth is likely temporary.

US gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 0.1% in Q4 2012, the first quarterlycontraction in three years and compared with growth of 3.1% in Q3; for the whole of2012 the economy grew 2.2%.

US unemployment rate rose to 7.9% in Jan compared with 7.8% in Dec; the countryadded 157,000 jobs in Jan compared with a revised 196,000 jobs in the previous month.

US Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report showed that private sectoremployment increased by 192,000 jobs in January, the largest increase in 11 months andcompared with a downwardly revised growth of 185,000 jobs in December.compared with a downwardly revised growth of 185,000 jobs in December.

US Employment Cost Index rose 0.5% in Q4 2012 compared with rise of 0.4% in theprevious quarter.

US durable goods order rose 4.6% in December 2012 following 0.7% gain in November.

US personal income rose by 2.6% in December following an upwardly revised 1%increase in November, while personal spending edged up by 0.2% in December afterrising by 0.4% in November.

US National Association of Realtors says its seasonally adjusted index for pending salesof existing homes fell 4.3% in December from November.

US new home sales fell 7.3% in December to a 369000 annual pace, compared with theprevious month’s rate of 398000.

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Global Economy Global Economy Global Economy Global Economy ---- USUSUSUS

US Consumer Confidence fell to 58.6 in January, its lowest level in more than an yearand compared with an upwardly revised 66.7 in December.

US Initial Jobless Claims rose 38,000, the biggest rise since Nov 2010 to a seasonallyadjusted 368,000 in the week ended Jan 26, the highest claimant number in around amonth.

Chicago purchasing managers index rose to 55.6 in January, compared with a revisedreading of 50 in December.

US Standard & Poor (S&P) Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose to 5.5% in Novembercompared with 4.3% in the previous month.

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Global Economy Global Economy Global Economy Global Economy ---- EuropeEuropeEuropeEurope

European Central Bank (ECB) president says that the Eurozone economy is set to startrecovering in the second half of 2013, though the positive contagion on financialmarkets has not yet started reflecting on the wider European market.

ECB says that the region’s banks have come forward to repay $183bn of emergencyloans taken from it.

Euro zone unemployment rate held steady at 11.7% in Dec compared with adownwardly revised rate in Nov.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence improved to -23.9 in January from -26.3 a month ago.

Euro zone leading economic index increased 0.4% on a monthly basis to 105.5 inDecember after rising 0.6% in November.

UK consumer credit increased 649 mn pounds in December from December, with UK consumer credit increased 649 mn pounds in December from December, withcredit- card lending up 232 mn pounds.

UK GfK consumer confidence index rose to -26 in January from -29 in December.

UK seasonally adjusted index of services rose 0.6% during three months endedNovember from the previous three months.

S&P affirms the European Central Bank's AAA rating, citing the bank's monetaryflexibility and the high average sovereign ratings among the euro zone's membernations.

Moody's downgrades six of Canada's major financial institutions on concerns over highlevels of consumer debt among Canadians and high house prices.

Moody's downgrades Croatia's government bond rating to Ba1, from Baa3, citing poorgrowth prospects and a lack of fiscal flexibility for the government.

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GlobalGlobalGlobalGlobal EconomyEconomyEconomyEconomy ---- AsiaAsiaAsiaAsia

China says it will impose anti-dumping duties on two chemicals from the United Statesand European Union (EU) for five years.

China’s official manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for January came in at 50.4,lower than December's level of 50.6.

China’s HSBC final manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for January came in at52.3, up from the initial reading of 51.9, and higher than December’s 51.5.

Japan's government says the economy will likely grow 2.5% in the fiscal year starting inApril.

Japanese government approves a $1.02 trillion draft Budget for the next financial year.

Japan's industrial output rose 2.5% in December from the previous month, compared witha month-on-month drop of 1.4% in November.a month-on-month drop of 1.4% in November.

Japanese retail sales rose 0.4% in December from a year earlier, compared with a 1.2%year-on-year rise in November.

Singapore industrial output fell 0.6% (annual) in December 2012 following 2.9% gain inNovember.

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GlobalGlobalGlobalGlobal EconomyEconomyEconomyEconomy ---- CorporateCorporateCorporateCorporate

Russian oil companies to invest $17.6bn in Venezuela by 2019 and quadruple output.

EU antitrust regulators block a 5.2bn euro bid by United Parcel Service Inc for TNTExpress.

Kinder Morgan Energy Partners to buy Copano Energy LLC for about $3.2bn in stock.

Compuware rejects a $2.35bn takeover bid by one of its largest shareholders.

Verizon Wireless to sell space on the airwaves to AT&T Inc. in exchange for $1.9bn andthe transfer of some airwave rights from AT&T.

Pioneer Natural Resources to sell a portion of its interest in its stake in the TexasWolfcamp Shale to a Chinese company in a $1.7bn deal.

Samsung plans to invest $1.7bn in expanding and fitting out its operations in China’sKunshan.Kunshan.

Caterpillar Inc earned $697mn in the fourth quarter, down from a profit of $1.55bn a yearearlier.

Yahoo’s fourth quarter net income fell to $272.3mn, compared with $295.6mn a yearearlier.

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Global MarketsGlobal MarketsGlobal MarketsGlobal Markets

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Global MarketsGlobal MarketsGlobal MarketsGlobal Markets

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Global Equity MarketsGlobal Equity MarketsGlobal Equity MarketsGlobal Equity Markets

IndicesIndicesIndicesIndices Feb 1Feb 1Feb 1Feb 1 Jan 25Jan 25Jan 25Jan 25 ChangeChangeChangeChange % Change% Change% Change% Change

DJIA DJIA DJIA DJIA 13860.58* 13895.98 -35.40 -0.25

NasdaqNasdaqNasdaqNasdaq CompositeCompositeCompositeComposite 3142.13* 3149.71 -7.58 -0.24

Nikkei 225 (Japan)Nikkei 225 (Japan)Nikkei 225 (Japan)Nikkei 225 (Japan) 11191.34 10926.65 264.69 2.42

Straits Times (Singapore)Straits Times (Singapore)Straits Times (Singapore)Straits Times (Singapore) 3291.14 3269.31 21.83 0.67

Hang Hang Hang Hang SengSengSengSeng (Hong Kong)(Hong Kong)(Hong Kong)(Hong Kong) 23721.84 23580.43 141.41 0.60

FTSE 100 (London)FTSE 100 (London)FTSE 100 (London)FTSE 100 (London) 6276.88* 6284.45 -7.57 -0.12

*Data with respect to January 31. *Data with respect to January 31.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Key global indices close mixed following volatile global cuesKey global indices close mixed following volatile global cuesKey global indices close mixed following volatile global cuesKey global indices close mixed following volatile global cues

Key global indices ended mixed in the week, with Japan’s Nikkei gaining the most, up 2.4%, while Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell nearly 0.3% each.

Wall Street stocks fell in the week amid weak domestic cues.

Markets started positively following some strong corporate earnings and positive durable goods orders data.

Gains were however wiped off after the US Federal Reserve said that the economic growth has stalled, and after data showed that the US economy unexpectedly contracted in the fourth quarter.

Britain’s FTSE ended slightly lower in the week tracking some weak global cues.

The benchmark was up earlier, supported by strong market sentiments across Europe.

Gains were however erased tracking disappointing US growth data. Gains were however erased tracking disappointing US growth data.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index rose 0.6% in the week ended February 1 amid mixed cues.

The benchmark up earlier on tracking intermittent gains in the US and Chinese markets.

Gains were however set off following discouraging US fourth quarter growth and after the US Fed Reserve said that the growth had paused in recent months.

Japan’s Nikkei index surged 2.4% in the week, boosted primarily by data showing that the European Central Bank's balance sheet contracted to its lowest level in nearly a year, a sign of stability in financial markets.

Singapore’s Straits Times index rose 0.7% in the week ended February 1 following upbeat Chinese industrial profits data and US corporate earnings reports.

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US indices declined following US Fed Reserve commentsUS indices declined following US Fed Reserve commentsUS indices declined following US Fed Reserve commentsUS indices declined following US Fed Reserve comments

WallWallWallWall StreetStreetStreetStreet stocksstocksstocksstocks fell in the week, with both Dow Jones and Nasdaq losing nearly0.3%.

Markets were positive earlier in the week following some strong corporate earningsnumbers, including Procter & Gamble and Starbucks.

Sentiments were lifted further after the government said that orders for durable goodsrose in December by 4.6%, indicating a sign of strength for the manufacturing sector.

Intermittent rally in defensive shares further supported the indices.

Gains were however wiped off after the US Federal Reserve said that the economicgrowth has stalled, though the pullback is likely temporary.

Sentiments were also dented after data showed that the US economy unexpectedlycontracted in the fourth quarter, and pending home sales fell in December.contracted in the fourth quarter, and pending home sales fell in December.

Sporadic weakness in tech shares also weighed on the markets, especially Nasdaq.

Caution ahead of the monthly domestic jobs report pulled down the markets further.

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FTSE ended marginally down on subdued global and domestic trend FTSE ended marginally down on subdued global and domestic trend FTSE ended marginally down on subdued global and domestic trend FTSE ended marginally down on subdued global and domestic trend

Britain’sBritain’sBritain’sBritain’s FTSEFTSEFTSEFTSE ended slightly lower in the week, on tracking weak global and domesticcues.

Earlier in the week the benchmark was boosted by strong market sentiments acrossEurope, even outweighing domestic economic data showing that the UK economycontracted 0.3% in the fourth quarter.

The benchmark was further lifted following sporadic rally in banking and mining stocks.

Gains were however erased on tracking disappointing US growth data.

Sentiments were dented further by downbeat earnings reports from AstraZeneca PLCand Royal Dutch Shell.

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Asian markets ended higher on intermittent positive local & global cues

Singapore’sSingapore’sSingapore’sSingapore’s StraitsStraitsStraitsStraits TimesTimesTimesTimes index rose 0.7% in the week ended February 1 following somepositive global cues.

Market received a thrust in the form of upbeat Chinese industrial profits data and UScorporate earnings reports.

Investors also cheered data showing that the European Commission's eurozoneconfidence index rose for a third straight month.

Some gains were however capped amid caution ahead of upcoming domestic earningsreports.

The benchmark retreated further following weak growth data from the US.

Japan’sJapan’sJapan’sJapan’s NikkeiNikkeiNikkeiNikkei index surged 2.4% in the week, ending at its 33 month high level.

Sentiments were boosted after data showed that the European Central Bank's balance Sentiments were boosted after data showed that the European Central Bank's balancesheet contracted to its lowest level in nearly a year, a sign of stability in financial markets.

The benchmark rose further as exporters’ shares gained on the back of a weak yen.

Strong earnings reports from corporates including Softbank and Japan Tobacco, inducedmore buying into the markets.

Some gains were however cut short on sporadic profit booking in exporters shares.

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Asian markets ended higher on intermittent positive local & global cues

HongHongHongHong Kong’sKong’sKong’sKong’s HangHangHangHang SengSengSengSeng index rose 0.6% in the week ended February 1 amid mixedcues.

The benchmark up earlier on tracking intermittent gains in the US and Chinese markets.

Gains were however set off following discouraging US fourth quarter growth and afterthe US Fed Reserve said that the growth had paused in recent months.

Some losses were also seen as index major Industrial & Commercial Bank of China (ICBC)fell after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. sold a stake in it.

Market direction was also affected after two sets of China manufacturing data offered amixed picture about the world's second-largest economy

China's official manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell to 50.4 in Januaryfrom 50.6 in December, while the final reading of HSBC's Purchasing Managersfrom 50.6 in December, while the final reading of HSBC's Purchasing ManagersIndex rose to a two-year high of 52.3 from a preliminary reading of 51.9.

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US debt fell on few encouraging domestic economic numbers

US treasury prices retreated in the week ended January 31 as some upbeat domesticand global cues dented demand for the safe haven assets.

Yields surged earlier as demand for bonds waned after the ECB President MarioDraghi said that the region’s banks came forward to repay $183bn of emergencyloans taken from it and it is set to start recovering in the second half of 2013.

Improvement in German business morale for the third consecutive month in Januaryto its highest in more than half a year also reduced the appeal for safe haven USgovernment debt.

Prices declined further after the US Federal Reserve said that the economic growthwill proceed at a moderate pace and unemployment will gradually decline underappropriate monetary policy; the central bank also continued with its current

35

appropriate monetary policy; the central bank also continued with its currenteconomic stimulus programs until the employment improves substantially.

Bond prices were also affected by encouraging set of data from US economyincluding a rise in personal income and spending, stronger-than-expected durablegoods report and Chicago Purchasing Managers Index reaching at its highest level inJanuary since April 2012.

Further fall in prices was however capped after the US GDP unexpectedly contractedto 0.1% in Q4 2012 the first quarterly contraction in three years and compared withgrowth of 3.1% in Q3.

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US debt fell on few encouraging domestic economic numbers

Bond prices also rose after US Consumer Confidence fell to its lowest level in morethan a year as Americans were more pessimistic about the economic outlook andtheir financial prospects.

The yield on 10 year benchmark bond rose to 1.99% on January 31 from 1.84% onJanuary 24.

On weekly debt holding front, foreign central banks investment in US Treasuries andagency debt at the Federal Reserve fell in the week ended January 30, 2013.

Treasuries held by overseas central banks at the Federal Treasury debt fell by $89million to stand at $2.91 trillion.

Holding of securities issued or guaranteed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac fell by$2.27 bn to stand at $306 bn.

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$2.27 bn to stand at $306 bn.

The resultant combined holdings of Treasuries and agency securities by foreigncentral banks fell $1.55 bn to stand at $3.25 trillion.

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Forthcoming Economic IndicatorsForthcoming Economic IndicatorsForthcoming Economic IndicatorsForthcoming Economic Indicators

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Forthcoming Economic IndicatorsForthcoming Economic IndicatorsForthcoming Economic IndicatorsForthcoming Economic Indicators

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Forthcoming Economic Indicators

DayDayDayDay EventEventEventEvent

Monday, February 4Monday, February 4Monday, February 4Monday, February 4 US Factory Orders, December

Euro-Zone Producer Price Index, December

Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence, February

UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), January

Tuesday, February 5Tuesday, February 5Tuesday, February 5Tuesday, February 5 US Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Mfg Index, January

Euro-Zone Retail Sales, December

UK Services PMI, January

China’s HSBC Services PMI, January

India’s HSBC PMI Services / Composite, January

Wednesday, February 6Wednesday, February 6Wednesday, February 6Wednesday, February 6 US Crude Oil Inventories, February 2

Japan’s Machine Orders, December

Thursday, February 7Thursday, February 7Thursday, February 7Thursday, February 7 US Consumer credit, December

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US Consumer credit, December

US Productivity and Costs data, Q4

US Initial Jobless Claims, February 2

European Central Bank Rate Decision

Bank of England Rate Decision / Asset Purchase Target

UK NIESR GDP Estimate, January

UK Industrial Production, December

UK Visible Trade Balance, December

Japan’s Trade Balance - BOP Basis, December

Japan’s Leading Index, December

India’s Advance Estimate for GDP in 2012-13

Friday, Friday, Friday, Friday, February 8February 8February 8February 8 US Trade Balance, December

US Wholesale inventories, December

China’s Trade Balance, January

China’s Consumer Price Index, January

China’s Producer Price Index, January

Japan’s Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook, January

India’s Forex Reserves, week ended February 1

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Statutory Disclaimers and Risk FactorsStatutory Disclaimers and Risk FactorsStatutory Disclaimers and Risk FactorsStatutory Disclaimers and Risk Factors

MutualMutualMutualMutual FundFundFundFund investmentsinvestmentsinvestmentsinvestments areareareare subjectsubjectsubjectsubject totototo marketmarketmarketmarket risks,risks,risks,risks, readreadreadread allallallall schemeschemeschemescheme relatedrelatedrelatedrelateddocumentsdocumentsdocumentsdocuments carefullycarefullycarefullycarefully....

Nothing contained in this document shall be construed to be an investment advise or an assurance ofthe benefits of investing in the any of the Schemes of ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund. Recipient aloneshall be fully responsible for any decision taken on the basis of this document.

Source of the data in this presentation is CRISIL: CRISIL Research, a division of CRISIL Limited (CRISIL)has taken due care and caution in preparing this Report based on the information obtained by CRISILfrom sources which it considers reliable (Data). However, CRISIL does not guarantee the accuracy,adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for any errors or omissions or

39

adequacy or completeness of the Data / Report and is not responsible for any errors or omissions orfor the results obtained from the use of Data / Report. This Report is not a recommendation to invest /disinvest in any company covered in the Report. CRISIL especially states that it has no financial liabilitywhatsoever to the subscribers/ users/ transmitters/ distributors of this Report. CRISIL Researchoperates independently of, and does not have access to information obtained by CRISIL’s RatingsDivision / CRISIL Risk and Infrastructure Solutions Limited (CRIS), which may, in their regularoperations, obtain information of a confidential nature. The views expressed in this Report are that ofCRISIL Research and not of CRISIL’s Ratings Division / CRIS. No part of this Report may be published /reproduced in any form without CRISIL’s prior written approval.

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Statutory Disclaimers and Risk FactorsStatutory Disclaimers and Risk FactorsStatutory Disclaimers and Risk FactorsStatutory Disclaimers and Risk Factors

DisclaimerDisclaimerDisclaimerDisclaimer:::: ICICI Prudential Mutual Fund (the Fund) has used information that is publicly available, includinginformation developed in-house. Some of the material used in the document may have been obtained frommembers/persons other than the Fund and/or its affiliates and which may have been made available to theFund and/or to its affiliates. Information gathered and material used in this document is believed to be fromreliable sources. The Fund however does not warrant the accuracy, reasonableness and/or completeness ofany information. For data reference to any third party in this material no such party will assume any liability forthe same. All recipients of this material should before dealing and or transacting in any of the productsreferred to in this material make their own investigation, seek appropriate professional advice and carefullyread the scheme information document. All data/information used in the preparation of this material is datedand may or may not be relevant any time after the issuance of this material. The AMC takes no responsibilityof updating any data/information in this material from time to time. The AMC (including its affiliates), the Fundand any of its officers directors, personnel and employees, shall not be liable for any loss, damage of anynature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also any

40

nature, including but not limited to direct, indirect, punitive, special, exemplary, consequential, as also anyloss of profit in any way arising from the use of this material in any manner. The recipient alone shall be fullyresponsible/are liable for any decision taken on the basis of this material.

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Thank youThank youThank youThank you

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