Wirtschaftstag Thailand, Berlin 23 September 2005 Dr. Paul Strunk, Hauptgesch äftsführer
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Thailand – Stabilität und Wachstum - German Technology Symposium & Exhibition (GTS05), Bangkok - Wirtschaftstag Thailand, Berlin 23 September 2005 Dr. Paul Strunk, Hauptgeschäftsführer German-Thai Chamber of Commerce [email protected]
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Thailand – Stabilit ä t und Wachstum - German Technology Symposium & Exhibition (GTS05), Bangkok -. Wirtschaftstag Thailand, Berlin 23 September 2005 Dr. Paul Strunk, Hauptgesch äftsführer German-Thai Chamber of Commerce [email protected]. Kingdom of Thailand. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Transcript of Wirtschaftstag Thailand, Berlin 23 September 2005 Dr. Paul Strunk, Hauptgesch äftsführer
Thailand – Stabilität und Wachstum- German Technology Symposium & Exhibition (GTS05), Bangkok -
Wirtschaftstag Thailand, Berlin23 September 2005
Dr. Paul Strunk, Hauptgeschäftsführer
German-Thai Chamber of [email protected]
Kingdom of Thailand514,000 square km, pop. 63.5 million
GDP per capita (PPP):US$ 7,100 (ca. 26% of Germany) [source: UNDP, 2004]
GDP total (PPP):US$ 478 billion [source:CIA, 2004]
Large and modern. Very fast economic growth
Top market and investment location
Source: NESDB
Thai GDP 1996 - 2005 in percentage change
5.9
-10.5
4.4 4.62.1
5.46.9 6.1 5.0
-1.5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: EIU, September 04
GDP growth by world region 2002 - 2005 in percentage change
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Japan Euro area United States Developing Asia
2002200320042005
External debt reduced from 94 per cent of GDP to 33 per cent of GDP (Q1 05). Reserves equal total debt and cover four times short term debt
Thai external debt vs. reserves in billion US$
109105
96
80
6859
52 49
27 3035 33 33
39
5143
50 50
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005(Q1)
External debtReserves
Thai government budgetary balance fiscal years 1997- 2004 in billion Baht (note: fiscal year is Q4 - Q3 of calendar year)
-400000
0
400000
800000
1200000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
RevenuesExpendituresBalance
Thai Consumer Price Index (CPI) in percentage change
4.8
7.78.1
0.3
1.6 1.6
0.7
1.9
3.6
2.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: NESDB, June 05
Thai private consumption (percentage change)
3.9
5.3
6.4
4.6
5.6
0
2
4
6
8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: NESDB, June 05
Thai private investment (percentage change)
4.9
13.4
17.515.3
10.6
0
10
20
30
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Source: NESDB
Thai imports vs. exports in percentage change
31
5
1720
-7
6
19
-3
23
27
16
23
-10
0
10
20
30
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Thai importsThai exports
Source: NESDB, June 05
Thai current account balance in percentage of GDP
12.8
10.2
7.55.4 5.5 5.6
4.5
0.1
-2.0-5
0
5
10
15
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
BOI approvals double in value in 2003 and rise by another 49 per cent in 2004
BOI approval of foreign projects (in number of projects and value in billion Baht)
517
761
575483
563
734
136213 210
100
213317
0
400
800
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
ApplicationsapprovedValue in billion baht
FDI inflows worldwide 2000 - 2003 in billion US$
1,400
818
679
560
0
500
1000
1500
2000 2001 2002 2003
-41%
-18%
-17%
-60%
Source: UNCTAD, 2004
BOI approval of foreign projects (in number of projects and value in billion Baht)
387428
152191
0
300
600
2004 (Jan - Jul) 2005 (Jan - Jul)
ApplicationsapprovedValue in billion baht
BOI approvals rise by 26 per cent in value in Jan – Jul 2005 vs. Jan – Jul 2004
How attractive is Thailand for investors? partly from BOI Investor Confidence Survey, September 2002Strengths:• stability • relatively low cost (workforce and infrastructure)• market size (local + AFTA + FTAs)• geographic location + air travel hub• good infrastructure• good investment incentives• diversified industry and trade partner structure• motivated, big, reasonably skilled workforce• quality and reliability of local suppliers• Major weakness: out of fashion (but starting to change)
Monthly wages of industry workers (US$) in 2003
2700
15201300
462261 208 178 163 150 138 134 108
0
1000
2000
3000
Source: JETRO, Survey of investment related cost, March 2003
Office rent monthly per square meter (US$) in 2003
46 45
39 38 37
2422 21 20
17
10 8
0
10
20
30
40
50
Source: JETRO, Survey of investment related cost, March 2003
Housing rent for expatriates (US$ per month) in 2003
4,650
4,000
3,461
2,836 2,800
2,073 2,0001,729 1,723
1,496 1,311
763
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
Source: JETRO, Survey of investment related cost, March 2003
Electricity rate for business use (US$) per month in 2003 (at contracted power: 2,000 kW, amount of use: 500,000 kWh)
77,660
52,240 50,000 48,300 45,22035,000 34,100 31,540 30,200 28,240 26,700 25,440
0
30000
60000
90000
Source: JETRO, Survey of investment related cost, March 2003
UNCTAD:Top FDI destinations 2004 - 2007 (Global Investment Prospects Assessment [GIPA] among 87 FDI experts, Aug 04)
7755
43
21
0
10
Political & Economic Risk Consultancy (PERC) 2002 report
Quality of life for expatriate families (lower number represents a better mark)
2.26
3.76 3.84 3.98 4.04 4.09 4.144.84
5.42 5.686.59
3.45
0
2
4
6
8
10
“Thailand’s people are some of the most hospitable in the world, and it is hard not to feel comfortable in the land of smiles”
Key industries and sectors for investment from a GTCC view:
• automotive components• chemicals + plastics• diverse manufacturing (German
investment,e.g., in packaging, optical lenses, shower cabins, butterfly valves, household appliances, compressed air pumps, construction machines, electronics)
• agro-industries• education, R+D, certification, calibration
diversified industry structure allows for diversified investment
